The following is a conversation Stephen cargan, his second time on the podcast Steven stephen is one of the greatest historians walter specializing in twentieth and twenty first century history of russia and eastern europe, and he has written what is widely considered to be the definitive biography of Stalin and three volumes, two of which have been published in the third focused on world war, two and the years after, he is in the midst of writing. Now this conversation, closer response to my previous part, gossip, Lord, with oliver stone, I was focused on Vladimir Putin, the war in ukraine steven, provides a hard hitting criticism of Putin. And the russian invasion of ukraine, weighed and contextual ized deeply in the complex geopolitics, a history of our world, all with an intensity and rigour, but

also wit and humor. They make Stephen one of my favorite human beings. Please also allow me to mention something that has been apparent and his weight heavy and my heart and mind. This conversation student card can makes it more dangerous for me to travel in russia. Previous conversation with oliver stone makes it more dangerous for me to travel in ukraine. This makes me sad, but It is the way of the world. I will never the less travel to both ukraine and russia. I need to once again see with my own eyes the land of my ancestors were they suffered, but flourished, eventually gave birth to sit. hold me. I need to hear roughly the pain, anger and hope for both ukrainians and russians,

if details from a travel plans in terms of location and timing, but the trip was very soon. Whatever happens, I'm through, grateful for every damn alive and I hope to spend such day, adding a bit of love to the world. I love you are so a quick few second mention of each sponsor check them out in the description as the best way to support this podcast. We got lambda for hardware for deep learning and we got scale for data data. Annotation for deep learning, then we also have a third greens for performance express vpn for privacy, Rocker for style choose wisely my friends and now onto the full ad reads: no ads in the middle. I tried make this interesting, but if you skip them, please do check out our sponsors. I enjoy their stuff. Maybe you will too

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We together, my friend, will be using the same software to press that big sexy button and put the cloak of a privacy protection around us as express vpn dot com, slash lex pod. These shows also brought to you by roca the makers of sexy glasses and sunglasses that I love wearing for the design and feel and innovation are material objects and grip. Rocha was started by two. All american swimmers from Stanford, one of whom I have met, he's a really off. dude here asked than ever location where they do some design. I think they do manufacture here too, I don't know. The point is all the people there are awesome and the vision of come The mission of the company's beautiful it's their obsessed with performance, how the thing feels that is like you can exercise in any weather conditions, but we also want the thing to look sexy and stylish, which does especially like the sunglasses with a minimalist

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The. You are one of the great historians of our time specializing in the man, the leader, the historical figure of Stalin. So let me ask a challenging question: if you can now perhaps thing about the echo of eighty years between Joseph an environment putin, what are the similarities and differ? is between the man and the historical figure, the historical trajectory of Stalin and Putin. Thank you likes it's very nice to be here again with you

While we see the goods as is happening again, this podcast stuff is doing you right here, so we can really put very easily vladimir putin in the same sentence with Joseph Stalin. Stalin is a singular figure and his category is really small hitler. Now, that's really about it, and even in that category stolen is the dominant figure. Both by how long he was in power and all

oh by the amount of power, the military industrial complex. He helped build and commanded. So potent can't be compared to that. However, Putin's in the same building a stolen, the use of some of the same offices, a stout used on some of those, the television broadcasts that we see of putin at meetings in Putin inside the kremlin, stalinist sit in those rooms and hold meetings in those rocks. That's the imperial senate, built by Catherine, the great and eighteenth said rebuilding inside the kremlin it's down of building an and you can see it on the panorama, the top the building. At least you can

here on the panorama when you look over the kremlin wall from many sites inside Moscow. So if he's not comparable to stolen, he still works, as I said in those same buildings or same offices partly, and so therefore he got some of the problems that Stalin had, which was managing russian power in the world, from a position of weakness, visa view the west, but from a an ambition, a grandiose city in fact- and so this combination of weakness and grandeur right of of not being a strong as the west, but aspiring to be as greater greater than the west. That's the dilemma of russian history. For the past many centuries, it was the dilemma for the tsars. It was the dilemma for Peter the great

was the dilemma for alexander was the dilemma first, Stalin and it's the dilemma for poor russia is smaller now compared to one Stalin was in that kremlin it's got pushed back to borders almost the time of peter. Great it's father from the main european capitals now than any time since that eighteenth century and. it and the west is only grown stronger in that period of time. So the dilemma is greater than ever. The irony of being in that position of sitting in the kremlin trying to manage russian power in the world trying to be a providential power a country with a special mission in the world, a country which imagines itself to be a whole civilization. And yet not having the capabilities to meet those aspirations and falling farther and farther behind the west.

The irony of all of that is the attempted solutions. Put russia in a worse place, servicing. So you try to manage the gap with the west. Try to realise these aspirations. You try to raise your capabilities and you build a strong state. The quest to build a strong state and use coercive modernization to try somehow, if not to close the gap with the west, at least to manage it and the result is different versions of person was rule so that up,

a strong state, they build a personal dictatorship, they build an autocracy and, moreover, that autocracy undertakes measures which then, worse in the very geo political dilemma that gave rise to this person was rule in the first place, and so I call this russia's perpetual geopolitics. I've been writing about this for many many years. What's important about this analysis is this is not a story of eternal russian, cultural proclivity to aggression, it's not something! That's the mother's milk, it's not something that can be changed.

She doesn't have an innate cultural tendency to aggression. This is a choice, its strategic choice to try to match the power of the west, which, from Russia's vantage point, is actually unmatchable. But it's a choice that made again and again and and has made this choice. Just the Stalin made the choice right, stolen, presided over the war war to victory, and then he lost the peace. After he died in nineteen fifty three, there was, of course, other rulers who succeeded him. He was still the most important person in the country after he died because they were trying to men that system that he built and more importantly, manage that growing gap with the west. By the time the nineties whirled around former soviet troops. Now russian troops withdrew from all those advance positions,

that they had achieved as a result of the world war to victory, and it was napoleon in reverse. They went on this aim- roads, but not from Moscow. Back to paris, but instead from warsaw and from east berlin and from thailand and re gun and all the other places of former warsaw pact and former soviet republics in the baltic region, they went back to russia in retreat and so Stalin, and- fullness of time lost the peace and putin in his own way, inheriting some of this attempting to reverse it when, as I said, russia

was smaller, farther away weaker. The west was bigger and stronger and anne had absorbed those former warsaw pact countries and baltic states because they voluntarily begged to join the west. The west didn't impose itself on them. It's involuntary sphere of influence that the west conducts, and so that dilemma is where you can put Putin and stolen in the same sentence and the terrible outcome for russia in the fullness of time also has echoes what, of course, Putin hasn't murdered. Eighteen to twenty million people and the scale of his abilities to cause grief with the nuclear weapons aside is nothing like style

and so we have to be careful right- only now put bigger numbers on the board from a tragic point of view than style and numbers matter here. If we compare these singular figures yet now killed more people and Stalin because now had more people to kill the most amazing thing about mile. Is he watched Stalin? Do it? He watched stalling collectivized, agriculture and famine result. He watched Stalin, impose this communist monopoly and all of those people sent to prison or given a bullet in the back of the neck. He watched all of that and then he did it again himself in china. You think he saw the human cost directly that

say he saw do you think he was focused on the policies was see also aware distinctly as a human being of the human costs in the lives of peasants and not in the laws of the working class and lies at the poor. I think the prima facie evidence is that he didn't value human life. Although eyes. I dont think after seeing the amount alive that were taken in the soviet experiment, he would have done something similar after that. I think the answer lex- Israel, it's very hard to get inside mouse head and figure out what he was really thinking. But if you just look at the results, that happened, the policies that were undertaken and the consequences of that you would have to conclude that there was let's say no value or little value placed on human life. Unfortunately, that's characteristic,

not only of communist dictators, right of post, communists, dictators as well, but the scale of the horrors that they inflict as horrific as they are just can't. Compare, And so were in a situation where Eurasia, that is to say the ancient civilizations of Eurasia, which would be russia, IRAN, china all have some version of non democratic, illiberal autocratic regimes and they're all pushing up against the greater power of the west in some sometimes they coordinate their actions and sometimes they don't. But this is a very long standing

phenomenon lacks the pre dates of LA dear, more putin or she, jean ping, or the latest incarnation of the supreme leader in IRAN. So we'll talk about this, I think really powerful framework well. The five dimensions of authoritarian regimes that you've put together are the first that that was good to this napoleon in reverse. Retreat from Warsaw back Putin is called from the perspective of Putin. This retreat, this collapse of Stalin is one of the great tragedies of that region of russia. Do you think, there's a sense where as Putin sets now in power for twenty two plus years. He really dreams of a return.

To the power the influence, the the land of Stalin. So while you said that there is not in the same place in terms of the numbers people that suffer due to their regime, do you think he hopes to have the same power, the same influence for a nation that was in the thirties in the forties in the fifties? F of the twentieth century understand if he does lacks he's deluding himself. We don't know for sure. Very few people talk to him. Very few people have access to him. A handful of western leaders have met with him for short periods of time, those inside russia bailey meet with him his own mind,

It's in the regime barely have face time with him when I know exactly what he thinks it could be that he has delusions of re conquering russian influence, if not direct control over the territories that broke away. But it's not going to happen. Let's talk a little bit about the sky, nikolai patrushev, nikolai patrushev, is probably not well known to your listeners, he's the head of russia's security council, and so you could probably call him the second most important or second most powerful man in russia, certainly inside the regime. Arguably novel ne is the second most important person in the country and we'll talk about that later. I'm sure

turkey for influence. Yes, but but part through chef is a version of putin's right hand. Man and positive chef has been giving interviews in the press. You probably saw the interview with needs a recent my agus yet they're, not that long ago. He writes also his own blog like Interventions in the public sphere, using the You channels that are left and what's interesting about partnership and- and this could well reflect similar thinking to prudence, which is why I'm bringing this up is that he's got this conspiratorial theory that the west has been ANA forever campaign to destroy russia, just like it destroyed. The soviet union

and that everything the west does is meant to dismember rush and that russia is fighting an existential battle against the west and so forth. Ample. The cia and the american government wanted to bring down the soviet union, never mind that the bush administration, the first bush, the father, was trying desperately to hold the soviet union together because they were afraid of the chaos that might ensue and the nuke step might get loose as a result. Other soviet collapse, then it was until the very last moment where bush decided his administration decided to back those republican leaders who were breaking away from me, how gorbachev and the soviet union right. So never mind the empirics of it

never mind that bill Clinton administration following George bush, said Paul loads of money. Western taxpayers, money to russia, we don't know exactly how much, because it came from different sources. People talk about how there was no marshall plan. It was tens of billions of dollars from various sources from the I m f and other sources and lex it disappeared. It's gone. Just like the german money that went to gorbachev for unification disappeared even before the soviet collapse. The money disappear, but the west sent the money. So how was that a plot. And then you could go away Obama's administration of george bush trying to do business deals and reset the relations and obama administration, trying to reset the relations and and and doing nothing after the georgian war and slapping Putin on the wrist.

Following the seizure forcible and you could go on and you could go on all the way through the trump administration telling Putin that he's right? He trump believes Putin and doesn't believe you s intelligence about russian efforts to interfere in american domestic politics. So, despite all the empirics of it, you have partnership and likely Putin talking about this multi decade, western conspiracy, to bring russia down at the same time as that's happening, the germans are voluntarily increasing their dependence on russian energy voluntarily increasing their dependence on russian. So here's the conspiracy to bring russia down the french hoof fantasize about themselves as a diplomatic superpower are constantly the french leaders across

simply running to the kremlin to ask what russia needs. What concessions from the west russia needs to be feel to feel respected again, the british provide all manner money laundering and reputation laundering services for the whole russian oligarchy, including the state of fish those who are losing the state and using the west british institutions to launder them. So all of this is happening, and yet partnership imagines this conspiracy to bring russia down by the west, and so that's what we ve got in the kremlin. Again Stalin had that same conspiratorial mentality of the west, everything that had

and in the world was part of a western conspiracy directed against the soviet union and now directed against russia. Even though the west is trying to appease the west is offering services the west. The strata change russia through investment in a positive way, but but but instead the west is what's changing. The west is becoming more corrupt. Western services are being corrupted by the relationship with russia. So so you have to ask yourself who are. These people in power in the kremlin, who imagine that, while there are availing themselves of every service and every blandishments of the west, while their availing themselves of this, that their fighting a conspiracy by the west to bring them down. So this is what they call the a beacon right in russian, which is a term as you know. That means those who are resentful.

or you might call them the losers. The loop There is in the transition, so When the soviet union fell- and there was a diminishment of a very substantial d new shouldn't russian power and influence in the world, a lot of people lost out. They were unable to steal the property they were unable to lose, stayed in the nineties and they were on the outside. They gradually came back they were the losers in the transition domestically and for them right. They wanted to reverse. Being on the losing side, and so they began to expropriate to steal the money steal a property from those first thing, lives who stole in the nineties and the two things

Cousins and on have been about re stealing, taking the losers in the transition, taking the money from the winners and reversing this resentment. This loser status, those your path and chefs and your potence, but at the same time this blows out too let's reverse the losses being on the losing side, the roiling resent men at the decline of their power internationally. Let's try to reverse that to say you have a profound psychological whole generate of people who were on the losing an domestically and reverse that domestically. That's what the putin regime about. Remember me: five hundred kg skis, you goes remember all the companies that are now owned by putin cronies because they were taken away from whoever stole them in the first place, and now there

trying to do that on the international scale. It's one thing to put domestic opponents in jail. It's one thing to take away someone's property domestically, but you're, not gonna, reverse the power of the west with the diminished russia that you have and so that project that partnership project, which we see, Him expressing again and again he speaks about it publicly. It's not something that we need to have to go looking for in a quest the secret. We can't find it. What are they thinking? It's right there in front of our face and putin has spoken the same way for a long time. People point to the two thousand and seven speech at the munich security conference that putin d

written. Certainly, your listeners could use a snippet or two of that just like they could use a couple of quotes from popham shifted to contextual eyes what we're talking about, but it predates the two thousand and seven munich speech at the reaction to ukraine's uprising in two thousand. Four attempt to steal the election inside ukraine right which the ukrainian people rose up, valiantly against and risk their lives and overturned right. So they were public statements from Putin already back then the statements about hot coffee in two thousand three when he was arrested in expropriated. This is a long standing, psychological, deep, deeply psychological issue, which is about managing russian power in the world, as I was saying, the gap with the west, but has this further dimension of feeling Like losers, in wanting to reverse that that's their life experience,

I been there so there's that that meant that fuels this narrative fuels this geopolitics and internal policy, but so resentment is behind some of the worst thing that ever ever been done in human history. Hitler was probably fuelled by resentment, so resentment is a really powerful force. Yes, just too may be not push back, but to give fuller context on the west. He said there is a narrative from from Putin is russia that the west, the somehow anatomy you position, everything gets the west. but is there degree and to what degree, is the west willing to feed that narrative? That is also convenient for the west to have an enemy. It seems like in the place in the span.

It seems I can geopolitics having an enemy. Is you for performing a narrative. Having an enemy for the basic respect of him. And it is not good, but in terms of maintaining power, if you are a leader in a game of geopolitics, it seems to be good to have an enemy. It seems to be good to have something like a cold. War? We can always point your finger and says all our actions are fighting this evil, whatever that evil, as it could be like with george w bush, the war on terror. Terrorism is this While you can always point than something so you made it seem that the west is trying there's a lot of forces within the west that are trying to reach our from the hand trying to help sending money, sending compassion trying to sort of trying to

russia into a global institutions, exactly which was a long standing, multi decade, effort across multiple countries and multiple administrations those countries, but is there also warmongering on the west? The horse lacks, of course, you're right about that. But let's put it this way: people talk about the cold war and the usually looking to assign blame for the cold war as if it's some kind of mistake, a misunderstanding or search for an enemy that was convened, into to rally domestic politics. So lex is a coup in czechoslovakia and somebody installs a communist regime in February nineteen. Forty eight, no reaction to that. That's just ok, there's a blockade of berlin. Is that cool by you, where they try to strangle west berlin so that they can swallow

wes berlin and added to east berlin. You call with that how bout korean war invasion of not north korea, invasion of south korea by north korea. You cool with that how about the murders and the show trials up and down eastern europe in the late forties after the imposition of the clone regimes, you good with that its very convenient to have an enemy. I agree with you, but you know there was some actions lex. There was some threats to people's freedom. There was some in vain since there was some aggression and violence on a massive scale like collectivization of eastern europe

We could go on lex with the examples I'm just given a few of them, and so the cold war was not a mistake. It was not a misunderstanding. We'll have to blame someone for the cold war. We have to give credit for the cold war. The truman administration deserves credit for standing up to Stalin's regime. For standing up to these actions. For saying yeah we're not just going to take this we're, not gonna, let this go on we're, not gonna. Let this expand to further territories, we're going to create the nato alliance and we're going rally, democratic, liberal regimes to stand up to this ill liberalism, this violence and this aggression, and so yeah lex. It it's always convenient to have an enemy,

But there was an enemy, nickolay leona for recently died. He died in April twenty twenty two and he had a major funeral he was the last head analysed of the soviet kgb An leona is one of the most important figures for understanding the soviet collapse, And he has the best member on the soviet collapse which is known in russian as lethal later. You will understand that and an annual help, your your podcast list, dinner's understand, there's a singularity to that kind of expression. Leave her. Let you Leon of just died, but one of the things he and, in fact the people who were supposedly arrested by Putin.

As scapegoats for the ukraine war, the main one, sergei beside the gave, the eulogy at Leon a funeral in April, twenty twenty two. showing that it's a lie that all of these people have been arrested and purged, and- and I know the nonsense and social me, but to get back to what leon have said and get back to your enemy point. Leone have said you know west spent all this time, blackening the image of the soviet union, all these resources and propaganda and covert operations to blacken the soviet image and the did lacks the western. Do that and then leona wrote in the next sentence, and you know what we gave them a lot of material to work with two black and our image- you have it. So the you're saying a kind

sobering reality, which it is possible to some degree to draw a line between the good guys and the bad guys. Freedom is better than on freedom lex. It's a lot better than on freedom and a guy, like you understands that really well. Well, so, yes, but those are all in others, wars like just, this freedom, what else love you can use a lot of words that hitler himself used to describe. Why he is actually creating about a world. Then those is fighting, so some of it is proper and the question is on the ground. What is actually increasing

might have freedom in the world. Is your intentions lex right? We're not talking about propaganda here when we use words like freedom, we're talking about rule of law? We are talking about protection of civil liberties, we're talking about protection of private property, we're talking about an independent and well funded judiciary, we're talking about an impartial non, corrupt, competent civil service we're talking about separation of powers where the executive branches powers limited usually by an elected parliament. In fact. Yes, let's talk about elections, let's talk about freedom of speech and freedom of the public sphere, we're not talking about freedom as a slogan here, we're talking about a? U you re of institutions and practices and norms

definitely right and if they exist, you know and you live under them and if they don't exist, you fully understand that as well. You crane was a flawed democracy before russia in vain it is utterly corrupt? Many ways, dysfunctional, especially the elise, would dysfunctional the gas industry in ukraine was absolutely terrible because of the corruption that generated the oligarch problem. A handful of people stealing the state resources. And yet Ukraine had an open public sphere and it had a parliament the function, and so, despite its flaws, it was still A democracy, the regime in moscow- you can't say that lacks it's, not a comparable regime to ukraine,

you could say, oh well, there were all a guard in ukraine in their oligarchs in russia. There is corruption in ukraine as corruption and russia are really what's the big difference. The answer is well. Ukraine had the open public sphere. Ukraine had a real parliament. Can you call russia's Duma a real parliament? I don't think so. I dont think you can. Can you say that there were any checks whatsoever on the executive branch in russia? Can you see that the russian judiciary had any independence. Or really full level of competence. Compared to the ukrainian judiciary, which was nothing to brag about. No, you can't say that lacks so we can differentiate between the very flawed, corrupt oligarch, oligarchical democracy in ukraine and the very corrupt, oligarchic autocracy and russia. I think that's a fair stinks

Yet we should say that russia and Ukraine have the great honour of being the number one and the number two most corrupt nations in europe. By many measures, but there is a fundamental differences in highlighting, Russia is a corrupt autocracy. Ukraine can say as a corrupt democracy and To that level. There is that there is a fundamental difference. Ukraine is not murdering its own journalists and systematic fashion if journalists are killed in ukraine, it's a tragedy If journalists are killed in russia or russian journalist or killed the broad, its regime palms and the degree to which a nation of authoritarian means its suffocating its own spirit, its capacity to flourish. It's we're not just talking about sort of and the the freedom of the press.

kinds of things, but basically all industries gets suffocated and you're no longer being able to flourish. Should grow the the production that gdp, the scientists, the art, culture, all those kinds of thing- yes, lex, you're, absolutely right and so before the invasion, the full blown invasion of february. Twenty twenty two into ukraine, because, as you know, the war has been going on for many years at a lower level compared to what it is these days, but still a tragic war with many debts. Prior to February twenty twenty two before this latest war, we could have said that the greatest victims of the putin regime are russian domestic, that to the people who are suffering the most from the Putin regime are not sitting here in new york city, what in fact or sitting there in russia now, of course, with the invasion of ukraine and and really the atrocities,

that I've been well documented and more are being investigated. We can easily say any more. The russians are the greatest victims of the Putin regime. What in in ways other then bombing and murdering civilians? written mothers. Grandmothers my after you include that then Course, the larger number of victims of the putin regime are not ukrainians, but ultimately, russians and and there how many of them now that have fled. So your powerful, precise, rigorous words are us than any stock trust. I would say to my very recent conversation with oliver stone now I love you too elaborate to disagree. Me you have here with

His words may be words of people like john mere shimmer. The idea is that prudence and in this invasion of twenty twenty two was forced by the expansion of nato, the imperialist imperative of the united states. And the then the nato forces hum you disagree with this point. In terms of placing the blame. Somehow vision on of forces larger than the particularly to nations involved, but more on the geopolitics of the world, as driven by the most powerful military nation in the world, which is the united states he elect. So, let's imagine that a tragedies happened here in new york and a woman got raped. We know the perpetrator, they go to trial and Oliver stone gets up. It says you

What the woman was wearing a short skirt there was no option but further rapists raper. The woman was wearing lipstick. or the woman was applying for nato membership and just had to be raped theirs, I mean didn't water raper, but was compelled because of What she was doing in what she look like and and the close was wearing the alliances that she was under international law. Sigh by moscow all the treaties that sovereign countries get to you use whatever alliance. They belong to a treaties that the: u n charter, signed by russia soviet union that nineteen seventy five helsinki agreement I end by the soviet union, the ninety ninety charter of paris, for a new europe signed by this,

oh, the ninety. Ninety seven nato russia founding act sign the russian government, the post soviet russia. All of those documents signed by if the soviet regime or the russian regime, which is the legally recognized international inheritor rights successor of the soviet state. All of those agreements are still in force and all then say that countries are sovereign and can freely choose their foreign policy more alliance, as they want to join. What's the even go further than that, I mean you, don't have to go farther than napa. Let's go further than that lacks is an autocrat,

dick repressive regime that invades its neighbours in the name of its own security, something new in russian street. Did we not see this before? Is this? Does this not predate nato expansion? Does this thought predate the existence of nato? Were oliver stone, sit here in this chair and say to you in all they had to impose serfdom in the seventeenth century, because NATO expanded they had no choice. Their hands were tied. They were compelled to treat their own population like slaves, because you know NATO expanded. I mean I could go on through the examples of russian history that predate the eggs since let alone the expansion of nato, where

You have behaviour policies, actions very similar to what we see now from the kremlin and- and you can explain those by nato expansion. Can you and saw that argument doesn't wash from me, because I have a pattern here. The pre dates: nato expansion. I have international agreements founding document signed by the crime, over many many decades. Acknowledging the freedom of country, to choose their alliances. And then I have this problem where, when you rape somebody it's not because they're wearing a short skirt. It's because you have rape them. You ve committed a criminal act lacks the I think, there's a lot of people listening to this, though, agree

The emotion, the power, in the spirit of this metaphor, now struggling to think how to dance within this metaphor, because it feels like it was eggs precisely the right one, but I think this it captures the spirit. I am not suggesting lax that everything the west has done has been honourable or in telling, Fortunately, we live in a democracy we live. In liberal regimes. We live on the rule of law, liberal in the classical sense, a rule of law, not liberal in the left, the sentence we live in places like that and we can criticise ourselves and we can criticise the mistakes that were made. Policy choices or the inactions that were taken, and there are a whole lot of things to answer for an and you can now discuss the ones that are your favorites

The dishonor or their mistakes, And- and I could discuss mine and weak, spend the whole rest of our meeting today discussing the west's mistake some pride and we will end up in prison for it. Yeah elects and solve. That's am thankful, for that is, and I am thankful that people may disagree. That people make the argument that nato expansion is to blame. But what you see? I'm countering two arguments here, I'm countering one argument which is very deeply popular, pervasive about how russia has this cultural tendency to aggression and it can help but invade its neighbours, and does it again and again- and eternal russian imperialism- and you have to watch out for this very

popular argument in the baltic states. It's really popular in warsaw, it's really popular with the liberal interventionists and it's it's very, very popular with those who were part of the Iraq war squad that got us into that mess. So I am against that and the reason I'm against that is cause. It's not true. It's empirically false. There is no cultural, trait inherent tendency for russia to be aggressive. It's a strategic choice that they make every time as the choice made is not some kind of momentum. Every time is a choice that we should judge for the choice that it is for the decision and therefore they could make different choices. They could say we don't have to stand up to the west. We don't have the capabilities to do that. We can still be a great country. We can still be a civilization unto itself. We can still be russia or we can still worship in orthodox cathedrals or

we can still be ourselves, but we don't have to pursue this chimerical, pursue this elusive quest to stand up to the west and being the first ranks of powers. Some countering that argument, I'm saying it's: it's perpetual geopolitics! It's a geo political choice, rising out of this dilemma of the mismatch between aspirations and capabilities. It's not iter! no russian imperialism and am also countering the other argument here lex, which is to say that it's the west's fault it's western imperialism, I very popular on the left very popular with real, is scholars very popular with some of the people recently your podcast, and so it's neither eternal russian imperialism. Nor is it western imperialism right. The mere fact that the west,

stronger than russia is not a crime on the part of the west. It's not a crime that country's voluntarily wanna join the west. That bank together either the eu or nato or other bilateral alliances or other trade agreements. Those are voluntarily entered into an and that's not criminal. If the west sphere of influence, which is open and open sphere of influence, which, as I say, people voluntarily join if expands, that's not a crime, nor is that a threat to russia ipso facto nato is a defensive alliance and the countries are largely pacifists. Who were members of nato and nato doesn't attacked it defends members if they are attacked and The idea that ukraine, which had the legal right might want to join kato in the EU, which was not

happen in our lifetimes and was not a direct threat to the poor regime, since it was since the western countries that make up the eu and nato. This I did that ukraine was not ready for membership. There was no consensus, it was not gonna happen, but its ukraine's free choice to is expressed that desire and if your government is elected by your people, freely elected meaning, yukin ani, like that government in the next election, and that government makes foreign policy choices on the basis of its perceived interests. That's not it crime lex. That's not a provocation. That's not something that compels the leader of another country to invade you write, that is

legal under international law, and it's also a realist fact of life. The realists like to tell you you know that russia here was the was disrespected. Russia's interests were not taken into account, et cetera, et cetera, but the real world works in such a way that treaties matter that energy. National law matters. That's why people like me were not in favour of the? U S, two thousand and three invasion of iraq lex, because it wasn't legal in addition to the fact that we thought it might backfire, but You know lex like I said there are a lot of things about the west that we ought to criticise us citizens and we do criticise, but but we have to be clear about where responsibility lies in in these events that we're talking about tat, I see

The trouble is largely erroneous to think about both the west's or the united states from an imperialist perspective and russia from an imperialist perspective as better clean to think about each individual aggressive decision on its own as a choice that was made. So let's talk about the most recent choice made by Vladimir Putin, the choice to invade ukraine or to escalate the invasion ukraine on February twenty fourth, twenty twenty two Now we're a few months removed from that decision. Initial decision? Why do you think he did it? What are the errors In understanding the situation in cuba leading the outcomes and everything else about this decision, any of you. Yet

When you don't, when award, doesn't go well, it looks like lunacy to have launched it in the future. Place does it ever go and war, ever goes according to plan. All war is based upon miscalculation. What not? Everybody is punished for their miscalculation. All aggressive war were talking about. Not defensive. War is based upon miscalculation, but you can adjust You can recalibrate, you know, went when you're driving down the road in that very annoying, voices, tellin you and in a thousand feet make a right. And you fail to make a right recalibrate right. It tells you ok now you know goethe, turn around you turn or make a laughed it does. Say, you're an idiot and turn around and make a? U turn, but it does recalibrate. So you can miscalculate and the problem is not the miscalculation. Usually it's the failure to do that. Adjustment

People I know for hedge fund traders, they I asked them, you know, what's your favorite tree, and the line from the more specifically chaise my favorite trade is when I made a mistake but I got out early before all the carnage, so their favorite traders. Not when they made some brilliant choice, but it's one they miscalculated what they reduce the consequences of their miscalculation by re quickly. So let's talk about the calculation and miscalculation They were. Let's imagine likes it. You ve been getting away with murder. I dont mean murder in figurative, sets, I'm You ve been murdering people you ve been murdering them domestically and you been met. Bring them all across europe and you ve been murdering them, not just with, for example, a car accident stage, car accident or using a

and gun. You use novi choke. Or you use some other internationally outlawed chemical weapon. and what's imagine that you did it and nothing happened to you. It was Like you were removed from power, it wasn't like you paid a personal price sure. Maybe there some sanctions on your economy, but you didn't pay the price of those sanctions. Little people paid the price of those sections. Other people in your country paid the let's imagine, not only will you murdering people literally, but you decided to entice, the idiotic ruler of georgia, into a provocation that you could then invade the country. An you, invaded the country and you bit off these territories up causing and south ossetia. And what price did you pay for? That.

And then you decided you know I think, on invade crimea and forcibly annex crimea and I'll instigate an insurrection in the dawn, bus and eastern ukraine, hans kinda lex. Imagine you did all that and then you had a stick out your wrist so that you know it could be slapped a couple of times, and you said you know I can pretty much do what I want They are putting a sanction here and there and they're doing this in their doing that and- and you know what they're more energy pendant on me them before. I, better money laundering and reputation, services than any body has maybe the middle east and the Chinese would disagree with you that you have better than them. But yours is a pretty good and the panama papers get released revealing, all of your offshoring in your corruption and what have nothing happens legs so the first and most important, considering and here is in your own mind, you

when getting away with murder, literally as well as figure to live, and you think you know I probably can do something again and get away with it and so the failure to respond at scale. In fact, the indulgences the further dependencies that are introduced, the illusion that trade is the mechanism to manage or authoritarian regimes. You know that great, a german cliche, a vandal door handle I change through trade or transformation through trade, one of Angela Merkel's favorite expressions right, you're, you're, going to get the other side to be better rather than conf. Plant them in a cold war fashion, where you stand up to their aggressions and you punish them severely in order to deter further behavior. So that's the first and most important part of the calculation miscalculation. There are a lot.

Other dimensions, how can we pause on that? Really quick, so this is Kind of idea of it's ok to crack a few eggs to make an omelette which is a more general description or what you're saying that you don't in court. Weight into the calculation, the amount of human suffering that decisions cause. But instead you look at sort of. The success based on some kind of measure for you personally and for the nation in nice. Tourism in the humanitarian sense, but in some kind of economic sense and a power geopolitical power sense here, you're, not sentimental lex. You say to yourself the cause of russian greatness. Is good later than any individual life, russia being in the first rank of the great powers,

russia, realising its mission to be a special country with a special mission and the world of civilization, unto itself. First rank of the great powers, maybe even the greatest power, that's worth the price that we have to pay, especially in other people's lives We have a lot of literature on the Putin regime which talks about the club. Talk receive the places yclept awkward and it is a club talk receive we'll all can see that and anybody in london live in the high life servicing. This clip talk receive can testify that it's a taxi, and not only in london, of course, right here in the united states in new york, but

no? It's not only a club talk receive lax. That was the problem of the russian studies, literature. It wasn't just about stealing looting the state it was about russian greatness. You see those rituals in the kremlin right in the grand kremlin palace, The saint George is hall some of the greatest interiors in the world, and you see a war ceremonies and you see, marking, holidays and all. These leaders of the state have their uniforms on with their metals and someone's, given a speech or singing a ballot, and their eyes are moist. Their eyes are moist because their thing he's in waters no lex because Believe in russian greatness they have a deep and fundamental passionate commitment to the greatness of russia, which, in an unsentimental fashion they're all.

Sentimental to the max. That's why they're they're Iser moistening, but they imagine unsent the that any sacrifices, ok, a sacrifice of other people's lives, a sacrifice of their conscripts in the military, a sacrifice of uk any in women and children and elderly. That's a small price to pay for those moist eyes about russian greatness and russia's position in the world with a one thing that sentimentality the things get us in trouble in the united states as well and lead. Two wars that illegal wars and so on, but the united states the repercussions for, breaking the law. Are you going to pay? for illegal wars in the end, your site, that's enough turn regimes the sum sent him tat can really get out of hand and you can buy charismatic leaders. They can take that to manipulate the populist make. To that. In in the span of history, led to atrocities,

and in today's world lead to humanitarian crises, it's not just the club talk receives a belief, cecilia, its passion, its conviction, its It's you can call them illusions. You can call them fantasies whatever you want to call them they're real their real for those people. And so yes, there looting that very state that they are trying to make one of the great powers in the world. And they resent the fact that the west doesn't acknowledge. Them is one of those great powers and they resent that the west is more powerful people talk about how Putin doesn't understand the world and that he gets really bad information lex. If you're sitting there in the kremlin. And you're trying to conduct business in the world and you're getting reports from your finance minister or your central bank governor europe, economy, everything that matters somehow all your trade is

nominated in dollars in euros. Do you have any illusions about who controls the international financial system? I don't think so lax you looking over your industrial planned for the next year and you're looking over how many tanks you're gonna again how many crews missiles you're gonna get in how many submarines you're going to get and and and and fill in the blank, and you know what it says right there in the paperwork where the component parts come from where the software comes from comes from the west blacks, your whole military industrial, complex is dependent on high end western technology and then an wits and lets you're in beijing, not just in moscow, You go to a meeting in your own neighborhood. You're, the leader of china,. You go to a meeting with other asian leaders. Do they all speak in chinese with you know lex. They don't speak chain

He's you gotta when international meeting as the leader of china and guess what language is the main language of intercourse. Yes, the site one you and I are speaking right now and so you live in that world. You live in, western world, and it's very hard have illusions about what world you live in when you're under that print. You need those western banks, you need that foreign currency right. You need that high and western technology that technology transfer your speaking or your forces. Beak or your minions are forced to speak at international gatherings in english and and and I could go on all the indicators that you live in and so potent lives in that world he's know full well to push back, isn't it possible that, as you said, the minions pray in that world, but can't you

if you're, the leader of russia or the leader of China or the leader of these different nations, still put up walls were actually when you Think in the privacy of your mind, you exist not in the National world. But in a world where there is great russian empire or this great chinese empire, yes, You forget that there's english, you forget it. There's technology, nigh phones! You forget that there's all this ass, the? U s, keeps popping up on all different paperwork that just becomes the blurry details that dissipate, because what matters is the greatness of this dream empire that I have in my mind as a dictator. I would put it this way: lex after you absorb that from your minions and an impressive upon your consciousness, where you live you live in a western dominated world that the mai,

If you, the world, doesn't exist, your goal is to make that multi polar world exists you're going to bring down the west. Your goal is for the west to weaken Your goal is a currency other than the dollar and the euro. Your goal is: is an international financial system that you dominate? Your goal? Is technological self sufficiency made in China twenty thirty five right. Your goal is a world that you dominate, not that the west dominates and you are going to do everything you can to Try to obtain that world, which is a russian centric world or a chinese centric work or what we could call. All a eurasian centric world and its it's gonna, be easy lex. Just for the reasons that where we enumerated before, but maybe

gonna get a helping hand. Maybe the west has got to transfer their best technology to you. They're gonna sell you their best stuff and then you're gonna happen. Or bid and may be copy it in reverse engineer it in and if they won't sell achieve, maybe you'll just have to steal it. Maybe the west is gonna. Allow you to bank, even though you violate men laws that would prohibit the west from extending those banking services to you may be the way is gonna, buy your energy and your palladium and your titanium. And your rare metals like lithium, because you are willing to have your poor people mine that stuff and die. Of disease at an early age, but western governments. They don't want to do that. I say no Do that dirty mining of those very important rare earths, but you're willing to do that because it's just people whose lives you don't care about is an autocratic regime rights

That's the world. You live in where you're trying to get to this other world you're at the centre of the other world who dominate the other world. But the only way to get their lex is the west has to weaken. Divided self maybe even collapse and oh you're, encouraging to the extent possible western divisions, western disunity, a western lack of resolve a western mistakes in western, invasion of the wrong country and and western destruction of its credibility through international financial crises and want to go on so that if the west weakens itself through its mistakes in its own option, you're gonna survive and maybe even come out into the world where you're the centre and so russia entire grand strategy, just like china's grandchildren

iran it's hard to say they have a grand strategy because they're so so profoundly weak. But Russia's grand strategy is where mess. We don't invest in our human capital, our human capital fleas or we actually drive out. It goes to mit like you did, or it goes to fill in the blank right. What we can invest in our people. Our healthcare is terrible. Our education system is in decline. We don't build infrastructure works. We on improve our governance. We dont invest in those attributes of modern power that make the way powerful. We can't because when we try, the money is stolen. We try these grandiose projects of national projects. There call we're going vest and higher red we're gonna, invest in high tech. We're gonna build our own,

silicon valley, known as skulk of all we're gonna, do all those things in what happened. They can't even build an airport without the money disappear, the sochi olympics legs, it costs them officially cost them. Fifty billion dollars, you look around that the infrastructure that endured from that fifty. Billion, dollar, expense and you're thinking. You know, that's like the second avenue subway you get almost nothing for your money and so yeah, it's corruption less. But it's also because they don't want to do that. They don't want to invest in their people. They couldn't do it if they wanted to and when they try. It doesn't work. But why invest in your own people invest in your hardware, your military hardware,

I invest in your cyber capabilities, invest in all your spoil asian techniques in your hard power and invest in court further corrupting and further weakening and further dividing the west. Because, as I said, if the west is weak, divided lacking resolve, you don't invest in your people, you don't build infrastructure, you don't improve your governance, but your model through that is fresh and grand strategy. So invest in the hard power weaken the west. Those combined together means you're going to be a devised to escalate any military, aggressive, complex, there- are around you or create new ones or a few, and get away with murder, but what happens lex if it harry truman. Like response, what happens if somebody says you know we're going to stand up to this,

We're not going to allow this to happen, we're not gonna launder your money anymore, we're not gonna, be dependent on you for energy in the long term, we're going to make a transition, we're going to punish you for that kind of behavior, instead and and and the west is now switch to that only because the courage and ingenuity of the ukrainian people there were new craning and resistance to russian aggression was one of the greatest gifts the west is ever received. The sacrifices that the ukrainians, or make right now, as we speak, Meaning there fighting a war by themselves. The major military power their neighbour, russia, nobody's fighting it with them. Yes, we are giving them weapons, so they can can

knox self defence which, by the way, is legal under international law. Unlike the rush invasion, which is illegal under international law, western supply of weapon. Including heavy weapons, including officer weapons to ukraine for itself. Defence in the invasion by russia is actually legal under, and so thank god, the ukrainians surprised everybody. They surprised me, they surprise Putin in the kremlin. They surprise the bite administration. They saw prize the european union, not with the fact that they would resist. We knew that we had the orange revolution in two thousand and four, we had my dawn in two thousand and thirteen fourteen where they rose up against a domestic tyrant, and they were willing to die on behalf of their country that let alone against a far and tyrant, invading their country right

So we knew they would resist. We didn't know just how successful. Certainly, I didn't know they would on the battlefield. It's been breathtaking to watch that sacrifice that gift enabled the west to rediscover itself to rediscover its power, to revive itself, to say the hell with this energy dependence in the long term. The hell with this money laundering and reputation laundering the hell with this running back and forth to moscow to try to see what putin needs in order for him to feel respected. What appeasement he needs reiser so we'll see if it indoors. But this shift comes from the EU any and saw its no longer getting away with murder lex, and we thank the ukrainians for that the people and the leadership and though the separate factions, make up ukraine uniting the is the unification, the uniting us, a common enemy standing up before

anyone knew that there would be backed by all of these other nations by this money and all this kind of stuff standing there, especially with president Zelensky, where it makes total sense to flee. He stood his ground and let let's take that point that you just race, which is a deep and fundamental point, and I thank you for that- drew us here. That, though, I think that was a compliment. They will go, let's go next. So what is your unification, when I'm sitting here in front of you, think it's an honor and it's a mutual honor, so crane before the war is run by a tv production company? right, you one guy, run in this fantastic, incredible, podcast, this twenty geyser so running a country, the size of ukraine and an ones a producer and ones like a make up purse

thin and one's a video editor and and they're fantastically talented people. If your country is the tv production so before the war, Zelensky had what twenty five percent approval rating and he couldn't get much done and it wasn't working, he got elected with seventy three percent. As you know, and then he was down why that's a pretty big drop and so you're thinking, maybe having a major large size. Forty million plus population european country, run by a tv production company is not the best it's a choice and then what are we see? We see president Zelensky decides to risk his life on behalf of his country, ukraine. He decides to stay in the capital, he's not gonna, flee heat, they're, going to stay and fight, and

could be killed. He can die it's a decision where he put his life on the line. Obviously he's jewish descent, russian speaking childhood and upbringing. Russian speaking jewish descend puts his life on the line for the country of ukraine. So pretty big message: don't you think and its crucial and it turns out not only that lacks but they're good, a tv, their good information war and in a war, it's a tv production company and a tv personality, those that's exactly what you want running a country because their crushing in the information war and he's spectacular european parliament you ass congress is rarely parliament there's no room on.

Let alone in person that he can't win over he's just so affected? You know this. is the first time reality tv has been about reality instead of fake reality. Tv is just this completely fake nonsense, but the this is real reality tv and he means it and and nation is behind him and and their justice, courageous, and just as ingenious in many ways and its spirit a killer and so yeah. Who saw that coming? I didn't see that coming lax. In fact, the by didn't we talk about putin, miscalculation the bite administration, as you alluded to offered him an exit from the country. They didn't say you know you want to stand and fight we'll back you, they said we'll get you out. You wanna come now and fame sleigh. You know that quote right when he said

how he doesn't need a ride. Remember that at the moment why didn't mention was poised do another afghanistan moment that ignominious exit from Afghanistan was almost what happened in ukraine when by the administration offered him ride out there, and fortunately he declined and helped rally in the people from below also rallied to stop the invader without the presidency, without a government in ukraine, as saving the Biden administration and end the european leaders who latched on. Fortunately, they had the presence of mind to latch onto this gift. The this it bravery and ingenious this of of ceylon ski in the rest of the ukrainians and flipped, and decided to support ukraine's resistance. You know, first with five thousand helmets only as the job

initially promised and now with really heavy weapons, and so that something that was unforeseen. I certainly didn't foresee that I foresaw the ukrainians society being courageous and resisting, but I didn't foresee a television production company being exactly what you want to run a country in a war president's zalewski willing to sacrifice laid down his life and rallying others in the country to do that, and then the country being so effective, not just at a courage but at battlefield resistance to the russian invasion. So I stand corrected by the ukrainians, and I'm ecstatic that I didn't that. I was wrong that I was proven wrong and, like I said, there's clear factions of the west and the east of ukraine and here's a person that, like you said,

in the high twenties low thirty's percentage approval in the country before the war, and now was able to use nineties the nineties season. The ninety percent approval rating I mean, I think they stop doing the yeah the polling, once he hit ninety one percent or whatever it was in the previous paul. I think they all understood that, for now they didn't need any more polling, that it's pretty clear, the nation south twenty five percent to ninety something percent and anne, and just like the twenty five percent was deserved. The ninety something percent is also deserved, fully deserve, and the question is how that all stabilizes? It feels like this sort of events. I may be paying attention to her too much, which is concern of mine. Whether the change I see is just surface level or deep level

but it seems like we're in a new world that something dramatic has shifted that this power that's rooted, I mean in your study. It of the twentieth century, is so deeply rooted in history. There's this power center of the world is nog. Going to Issa has been shaken by this event and how that changes, the world it is unclear. I it's unclear what lesson china learns from watching this will lessen in dealers from watching this, both nations. As far as you can get polls about the chinese population, but both nations are largely supportive, Putin, so russia, india and china are still supporting of putin quietly. I would maybe elaborate a little bit on that point, blacks. I think you're right there,

feeling that we're in an inflection moment in an inflection point, I think, that's widespread and I think it's widespread for good reason. We might be but I also share. You're, let's say modesty about where it's going and how hard it is to predict where this might go. It's only in inflection point. If the trends continue, right, if the trends in dore their applause- We have non inflection points. After nine eleven the whole world rallied around the united states. After it was attacked me after the the bomb of the towers here in new york city and the heading of the pentagon and and that didn't last. But it was not really in inflection- point- was it it felt like it might be, but it wasn't and so

This is not a comparable moment and in terms of what happened, but it has the feeling that it might be a watershed I may be, will squander it the way we squandered the post, nine alone then rallying around the united states may be, will actually consolidated will endure, maybe it'll endured despite ourselves, and we can't tell we can't know yet and it depends in part on what we do and what we don't do, but here's a few things that we understand already the idea that the west was in decline and that the rest of the world reason and was more powerful and that we lived in a multi polar world that turns out to be empirically false. It's not true, meanest shes, factually

True, there are no major important multi national institutions, organizations that are run on behalf of or led by a south africa, a nigerian person from india. Even the chinese don't run these institutions, they would like to end their trying, but they dont, and so whatever you pay I am ass. The world bank, the federal reserve, which is the most powerful multinational institution which is actually only a domestic institution and doesn't have a legal mandate to act multilaterally. But does it's gotten. Most power of any institution in the world? Nato. The bilateral alliances that the? U S has up and down asia. What organisations that have

Tremendous leverage on the international system on the international order are non west, the? U, when is the most encompassing? And, of course, we know that the five it has five members of the secure council with a veto, one of which is russia, one of which is china and the others are the? U s? Britain and france, not india, not south Africa nodded who needs you not. All of these are the countries where the people live right. The bulk of the population of the world and where the population is growing like on the african continent, so it's not a multi, polar world? We talked already about the international financial system, its western, not multi polar. We talked the? U s military and nato, or we could talk about the japanese military, which is just very formidable enormous number of platform

even the australian military. We could talk about tax right, and so it's a western dominated world and the west remember is not a geographic concept. It is an institutional and values. Club, the japanese, are not european, but their western. Just like russia is european, but not western costs. European is a cultural category and western is an institutional category. Will you have rule of law, the separation of powers and free and open public sphere and dynamic, open market economy. Ok, and then we have another thing which is pretty clear: the west is powerfully, resented, powerfully envied and admired samuel, annesley pj, o'rourke

comedian who died this year fantastic, it was a big loss for the culture. He said there are two things that are always characteristic of any american embassy abroad. One is a political protest outside and the other is the longest line you ve ever seen for visas and those things are true simultaneously and that's the we live in meaning that non western countries envy and admire the west, but they also represent the power of the west western hypocrisy right. The west invades countries when it wants, but when others do that its illegal the west arrests, you for money laundering, but it's stern money laundering. That's is where you

go when you need to launder money right, so they see the hypocrisy. They see the excessive power that the west has and they resent it, and they say you who elected you, to run the world, we have a billion plus people, or we have a two hundred plus million people, We don't have a say, you're the self appointed guardians of our world. Who did that? And so it's incumbent on the west, not only to remember the power that it has, but also to exercise that power legally and with restraint, and also to think about how we can expand institutions, to be more encompassing so that other parts of the world are not on the outside, being dictated to

But instead are on the inside too often western power is not consulted, five in decision making fashion its consultative. After the fact. Hey, you know we got together in the eu or we got together. In nato, or we got together the federal reserve and hears our decision and we're announcing it today, so your economy gets destroyed because the federal reserve decides it to raise interest rates. Or you now go into the fault. You can't pay your debt, because western banks lent you money and now the west is changed, interest rates or or other consideration,

chins at at at and you're in big trouble now, and so this is something which we failed to address it's very hard to address it's very hard to reform international institutions. It's very hard to share power. It's very hard to acknowledge But you have too much power and that may be having too much power is not good, not only for the rest, the but for yourself, and so it's great to rediscover the western rediscover, for its values and rediscover its authority. Credibility and power, but its that's, not suffice and so we know this now. We know that the rest, the world is not necessarily jumping on the western bandwagon right to condemn russia for its actions, because the west can do things like sanctions,

central bank. Take away your reserves, deny you technology it pretty. Much can do whatever once and it can say that its legal and you can go through various mechanisms and and it can freeze your property in a new citys of. Should anybody have that much power? And when do they come after me? Now there's a caveat here and the coffee at lex? Is they don't like the west having all that power and they didn't join in the condemnation of russia, but they also didn't join in russia's aggression. So Russia's domestic civilian airspace aircraft industry, civilian aircraft industry is in big trouble now because of the export controls on spare parts and software brazil

is a major power in aircraft manufacturer the day rush him and say you know Vladimir Putin, We didn't condemn necessarily your actions in ukraine. Ok, that's one thing and how about we View all of our aircraft technology- and we help you rebuild your domestic aircraft. The street, and you can have the aviation that the west as they did, that happened lex didn't happen. And you can look at india and you can look at china and you can look at south africa. You can look at what they ve done in practical terms. Yes, they haven't always joined in a full throated condemnation? Maybe they ve been neutral, or maybe they ve been playing both sides of the fence like turkey, for example, What are they rushing in to join? Russia to join russia's aggression to supply, and there

answer is no, and the answer is no for two reasons: one actually don't wanna be party to that and to they understood and that western power and and they don't want to be on the receiving end by crossing the west. Then getting caught up in a sanctions, regime or worse, Can we go to the mind of lime, are prudent because what you just said, child India, they seem to sit back and say we're not going to condemn the actions of vladimir Putin or russia, but we would really like for this war to be over. So there's that kind of energy of we don't just stop this, because you putting us in a very, very bad position, and yet. Vladimir Putin is continuing the aggression. What is he thinking? What information is getting? Is it the system? The youth?

tribes of authoritarian regimes that corrupt see a flow of information, the ability to make clear decisions just as a human being when he goes to sleep it Has he not able to see the world clearly or is this all deliberate since, matic action that does have. Some reason behind it. We gotta talk a little bit about china too, but let's answer year, putin question directly so on twitter you ve lost. The war or, as they say you know there are these. Two russian soldiers have an a smoke in warsaw and in other there taken a break smoke is sitting there in warsaw on top of their tank, and one says to the other yeah. You know we lost the information war, here they are sitting in warsaw. Haven't that smoke right so year on twitter rush has completely lost the war in re

how they fail to take here. They failed to capture kiev and they failed in phase two as they called it or plan b. Which is to capture the entirety of the dawn boss, where three months since the war, if you had made a judgement about, let's say them, the invasion of the soviet union a definitive judgments after three months. You might have got the outcome wrong there. If you a judge the winter war, the nineteenth nine forty soviet invasion of finland. After three months, you wanna get that wrong to of what the outcome was gonna big. So, where early in the game here- and we have to be careful about any definitive judgments, but it is the case that so far they fail to take kiev. Can they fail to capture the entirety of the dawn boss, hans, ask and done yet sk a provinces, eastern ukraine,.

A part of it and they ve been driven out of her Keith and the area immediately surrounding hark if they never captured heart keith, but they came close, but now the ukrainians drove them back to the russian border in that very large and important region. So those look like battlefield losses that are impossible to explain away. If here the regime in russia, except by suppression of information,. And, as you know, from russian history, lex leaders in russia have an easier time with a state of siege and desperate nation. Then they do with explaining lost war. But let's look at some other facts that are important to take into account,

One, the russian army has penetrated father into ukrainian territory since February twenty twenty two, including an here son region, the famous murray opel siege- that just ended. They have built a large presence in areas north of crimea, the sea of us off the black sea literal, ultimately that they didn't previously hold. There are still fighting in lille concept for full control over at least half of the dawn boss and ukrainians are resisting fiercely, but none the less. You can say that they have been driven out. On the contrary, father penetration than

ukraine doesn't have any economy anymore. They have somewhere between thirty three and fifty percent unemployment. It's hard to measure on employee in war economy. But there are many, Article industry, that, as of style, steel, plant and maria well, it is a ruin now and a lot of farmers are not planting the fields because the harvest from the previous year still hasn't been sent sold abroad because the ports or blockaded or destroyed and so you don't have any economy and new needs five billion or seven billion or eight billion dollars a month to meet your payroll too. Your people to keep your army in the field, that's a lot of money per month and that's indefinite. That's as long as this blockade, land,

As a european economy, more you're, indigent and even You take the lower number five billion, as opposed to the landscapes asked for seven billion five billion. Sixty billion a year that sixty billion this year that sixty billion next year and so who's got that kind of money which western taxpayers are ready. And if you use the seven or eight billion you get up to one hundred billion a year. The Biden that just signed by president Joe Biden just signed the bill making it law. Eighty billion dollars in aid to ukraine just an enormous sum: the comic piece of that is a month and a half two months of ukrainians covering ukrainian expenditures, that's it and that they're asking the G7 there s can ever

body for this, so you have no economy and no prospect of an economy until you evict the russians from your territory And then you have a the unity western resolve it last saw it doesnt last legs. So your president Putin and you ve got more territory than before and you ve got a stranglehold over the ukrainian economy. And you ve got a lot of the world neutral and you ve got the chinese propaganda. Supporting new to the hilt. With those oliver stone and mere charmer lines about how is really NATO's fought and you ve got hungary dry, in its feed on the oil embargo against russia, and you got turkey dragging its feet on the recent applications of sweden and Finland

lend for nato expansion you're saying to yourself lex. Maybe I can ride the sound. I got lot of problems of my own. We can go into the details on the russian side challenges, but he's got his he's on ukrainian territory unless evicted and he's got a stranglehold on their economy and he's got the possibility that the west doesn't stay resolved and doesn't continue to pay for ukraine's economy or supply those heavy weapons. And so you could argue that may be deluded about all this- and maybe should go on twitter and I'm not on twitter, but maybe putin who famously doesn't use the internet, go on twitter and sees loosen the war or you argue that maybe he's cap leading here that he's got a chance to still prevail.

While that is darkly insightful. If I could go to henry kissinger for beef moment and people should read this I'll pay. You wrote in washington post in march, fifty thousand fourteen after the start of the war between russia and ukraine, but before crimea was annexed there's a lot of interesting historical description about the division within ukraine, the corruption within ukraine? That wool? If people this article give context to hound The it is? Was Alaska was able to accomplish in uniting the country, but I just want to comment Henry kissinger, so interesting figures, american history, he opens Article with in my life I have seen for wars begun with great enthusiasm and public support. Which we did not know how to end and from three of which we will

drew unilaterally. The test of policy is how it ends not how it begins so he's giving this cold hard truth that we get do we go to war excited, are able to send forty billion dollars finance, actual aid, military aid, our own men and women, but day excitement, fades twitter out, age fades and then a country that's willing to wait patiently is is willing to pay the costs of siege versus the cost of explained some people at the war is lost. Their country just might win out last, let's hope not because the ukrainians resistance deserves to prevail here.

Russia deserves to lose. No war of aggression like they ve committed here against ukraine should prevail. If we can do anything about it, I support a thousand percent. They contain food supply of heavy weapons, including offensive weapons to the ukrainians, As long as they are willing to resist and it's their choice, it's their choice went and negotiate its their choice. How much to resist its their choice, what kind of sacrifices to make and it and it's our responsibility to meet their requests more quickly than we have solved. Are in a greater scale, but ultimately wars only have political ends. They never. Have military ends? You need a political solution here, so if the ukrainians are able to conduct a successful counter offensive its scale.

In July or august, whenever they launch right now, The heavy weapons are coming in and there being moved to the battlefield and more coming You know the dynamic russia bombs, school, russia bombs, a hospital Americans and europeans decide to send even more heavy weapons to ukraine right. That's the self feeding dynamic from the russian side. They commit the atrocities. We send more heavy weapons. Once those heavy weapons around the battle lines will see if ukrainians cannot just defend which they have proven their able to do in breathtaking fashion. Not just conduct count attacks where the enemy moves forward and you cut behind the enemies, lines and new counter attack and push the enemy back a little bit, but whether you can evict the russians from europe.

Territory with a combined arms operation. Will you have a mass of superiority in an infantry and heavy weapons. But more importantly, you coordinate your air power, your tanks, your drones, your infantry at scale which is something the ukrainians have not done yet. It's something the russians failed that in ukraine, where they come from the same place, the soviet military. We hold This ukrainian counter offensive its scale. This combined up arms operation succeeds, and if it does succeed, there is the possibility of a battlefield victory whether that also includes crimea Which, as you know, is not hostile on the contrary to the russian military remains to be seen, but but, however much they regain territorially.

Back towards the ninety ninety one borders, which is their goal there stated goal and which we support them properly in trying to achieve, however much they achieve of that in this counter offensive that we're, anticipating that will set the stage for the next phase and either russia, the, which is to say one person. Vladimir Putin will acknowledge that he's lost. War, because the ukrainians wanted on the battlefield or he'll try to announce a full scale, mobilization conscript. The whole countries go back, and instead of acknowledging defeat, try to win with a different plan. Recalibrate remains to be seen:

Will the ukrainians negotiate any territorial way or must they capture? Also crimea, which puts a very high bar on the wind on the summer. Counter offensive that we're gonna see which could last through the phone and into the winter. As a result, we don't know the answer to that. Nobody knows the answer to that. People are guessing. Some people are better informed because they have inside intelligence. People are also worried about russian escalation to nuclear weapons or chemical weapons if they, get to lose on the battlefield to ukraine. Are you worried about nuclear war, the possibility of nuclear war. I think it's necessary to pay attention to that possibility. That possibility existed before the february twenty twenty two

full blown invasion of ukraine. The doomsday arsenal that russia possesses is enough to destroy the world many times over and that's been the case every year since the collapse of the soviet union and ninety ninety one, and so of course we concerned about that. We do know, however, relax that they have a system known as dual key dual key for this strategic nuclear weapons. A strategic nuclear weapons means the ones fired from silos. The mist how's the ones delivered from bombers or the ones fire from submarines in there ray. Go there intercontinental. We watch that very, very closely we watch all the movement of that in the alerts etc. We have tremendously, let's say tremendous inside intelligence on that. But dual key means

with president putin alone cannot fire them. He has one key which he must insert. He must then insert the codes for a command to launch. That then goes to the head of the general staff, who must has his own key and separate codes and must do the same, insert that keen codes for them to launch, and so will the general staff chief go along with the destruction of the world over a battlefield loss in ukraine. I don't know the answer to that and I dunno. If anybody knows the answer to that, will those people flying those bombers if they get the order from if the dude

the key system goes into action and both keys are used and all the codes are are are implemented, while those young guys fly in those bombers, let those bombs go while those at the missiles silos decide to engage and fire no, but you can see that it's more than one man making the decision here in a system of strategic nuclear weapons. As far as the tactical, the so called low yield or battlefield. Nuclear weapons were not you're the system that they have in russia these days for their input went for their use of such tactical nuclear weapons. It could well be that that putin and just himself he alone- can fire them or order them be fired. What you know, lex, there's no tactical nuclear weapon fired at ukraine. That is not also fired, simultaneous

at russia. If the kremlin is six hundred miles from ukraine, the wind changes direction or the wind happens to be blowing east northeast the fall out. Hits your kremlin, not just you Moreover, you have all those border regions which are staging regions for the russian offensive, and there are a lot closer than sick hundred miles there actually right there, and so you fire weapon on ukrainian territory and you can get the fall out just like the chernobyl fall out spread to Sweden, which is how we got the kremlin to find. First, they denied this in all. We don't know why there's a big nuclear cloud over Sweden we don't know where they came from and eventually They admitted it, so russia can actually you

who was a nuclear weapon tactical battlefield one in ukraine, without also firing it at itself, And, in addition, it's that same dynamic I alluded to earlier, which is to say you bomb, a hospital you bomb a school there's more heavy weapons going to ukraine from the west You can get away with any of the there's, always gonna be response see the proportional or greater than proportion. You could well have europe signing on to nato direct engagement, both Washington, oh boy and brussels, direct engagement of the russian army on the territory of you, Craig, you, you think that's possible to do that thou, dramatic escalation from the russian side. Yes, I do think it's possible, but its very worrisome, just like your saying, but but if putin war to escalate like

he's firing that weapon at himself and he's potentially provoking a direct clash with NATO's military, not just with the ukrainian military If you're sitting in the kremlin, looking at those charts lex of nato capabilities- and you can't come- where ukraine, which didn't really have heavy weapons before February twenty twenty two at scale and europe. Ok. Now I'm gonna take on nato. That would be a bold step on the part of a russian leader and and and let's also remained relax that there's another variable here, you're a despot. as long as everyone implements your orders and so if people start to say quietly, not

certainly publicly. I may not implement that order. That may be a criminal order or my grandma is ukrainian or my wife is ukrainian. Or I don't want to go to the haug, I don't want to spend rest of my life in the heart or what or it might be at any went along the chain of command from the general staff. All the way down right to the platoon you're a despot, provided they implement your orders, but whose say that somewhere along the chain of command people start to say. You know. I'm gonna ignore that water or I'm gonna, sabotaged that order or I'm gonna flee battlefield or I'm gonna injure myself, so that I don't have to fight off I'm gonna join the ukrainian side, and so it could be that

left of the russian army in the field begins to disintegrate, even if the ukrainians are not able to mount that counter offensive its scale that combined arms operation, the russian military in the field which has taken horrendous casualties as far as we understand something like a third of the original force, so you're talkin about fifty to sixty thousand, and that includes both dead and wounded to the point of being unable to return to the bed, feel as a big numbers were a lot of families. A lot of families affected their sons or their their husbands. Were there

Fathers are either missing in action or the regime won't tell them that their dad, as you know, from the sinking of that flagship, moskva right by the ukrainians and soul of disintegration of the russian military, because their order is that they either can implement or don't want to implement, is also not excluded. And so you have these too big variables ukrainian army in the field and its ability to move from defence the offensive scale and we're gonna testing soon and then the russian ability in the field to hold together in a war of conquest and aggression where their their conscripts or their fed dog food or

or they don't have any weapons anymore, because there's no resupply and so saw the disintegration of the army can't be excluded and then, of course, all bets are off on the putin regime more long term. There are these technology export controls. We were talking about how the military industrial complex in russia is dependent on foreign component parts and software, and so, if you have export controls, have firms voluntarily, even within all, followed their export controls, leaving russian business, refusing to do business with russia, and we see this not just in the civilian sector like with mcdonald's or many other companies. We see this in the key areas like the oil industry, with the executives fleeing that is the western exam.

It is fleeing giving up their positions, so Russia's ability to we supply its tanks resupply its missiles resupply its uniforms resupply its food too, with soldiers in the field And ended in their boots. We see a lot of stuff under tremendous stress and in the long term, there is no obvious way they can rebuild the military industrial complex to produce those weapon because they're reliant on foreign parts that they can't get any more and there are no domestic substitutes on the immediate horizon, that's at the earliest, a two year opposition to have domestic substitutes and for some things like microelectronics, they ve never had domestic substitutes going back to the soviet times.

You know well and so there's that pressure on russia from the technology export controls, which, if you in the security ministry of defence ministry of fear in that side of the edge of the regime. You feel in that pain. As we speak and you're wondering about the strategy. Let me ask you about again the echoes of history and its frustrates me in part on people, these parallels. But maybe there is some deep inside about those parallels, so theirs? The song goes, that's it. Of a union of states. Psyche of vietnam will be reached on the issue, as I now saw the they in The operation barbarossa thee the bombing of kiev by hitler. There is serving eerie parallel

Have to be extremely careful drawing such paralyzes such connections to this. Unexplainable war What, then, is what were to, but is there elements of this that do echo in the actions of vladimir Putin and more specifically, do you think Vladimir putin is a war criminal. Can that will be assigned to the actions of this man a war criminal, illegal determination and it requires evidence and due process and the ability to defend oneself, we don't just decide in the twitter sphere or on a podcast that somebody is a war criminal.

They can be a suspected war criminals and we can gather evidence to try to prosecute that case and then the issue for us lexus, which court does it go to what's the appropriate place? Does it happened in ukraine because they are? The victims does not happen in the hog, because there is an international criminal court. There does it happen inside russia, because there's regime change at some point and some of these people become. Let's say they get arrested by the wrong people inside russia. So those are all important questions that have to be pursued with resources and with determination and by skilled people who are excellent at gathering that it is that process is under way and

Crane has a trial under way now of one alleged war criminal whose pleaded guilty in and will see what the outcome, that trial inside ukraine is of a lower level officials, not obviously vladimir putin but the commander of the tank group. So yes, the aimed are eagerly familiar. He's young heart gave gear those are the names we know from the north invasion and the nazi occupation of ukraine and its very deeply troubling. To think that this could happen again, and there is a bizarre sense that the russians, claiming as putin, says, the d not suffice. Ukraine have invaded the same path;

is that the nazis invaded back in eighteen, forty one as somebody who is working and volume. Three of your work on stolen, going through this period is an eerie to you. Yes, it is lacks the I've written the chapters of volume, three have drafted the chapters on the war and and, as I say, the place names are very evocative. Unfortunately, but but you know the nazis failed. Ultimately, they captured ukraine for a time, but they were evicted from you great news, massive partisan or guerrilla warfare resistance behind nazi lines, the whole time that they were allegedly in control of ukraine. If you look at the maps and cable tv

show you the sign of rush? They show you the colouring. Russian control. They draw a line and then its coloured in, but the word control is misplaced, then actually control its russian claimed or or extend the farthest russian troop advancement, because behind the russian lines in ukraine, crimea accepted, you have insurgencies, you have armed insurgency and merely topple, for example, which is a place that you know in south eastern europe, There is a guerrilla war now under way to hurt the russians who are in occupation of that city and region And we're gonna see that continue, even if the war becomes a stalemate, even if it still

it's more or less. The lines were at now, which would mean that its anticipated ukrainian counter offensive its scale, proof On successful, the russian army doesn't disintegrate and you end up with a stalemate where there could be a cease fire, not a cease fire, but neither side is attempting an offensive the time being: there will be resistance behind those russian lines and it will be fierce resistance The kind of resistance we sought to the nazi occupation- ultimately, it took the red army re invading the territory of ukraine and succeeding. Add combined operate arms operations at scale. A massive counter offensive, much larger than anything we're talking about today. Ultimately, europe

I heard that to evict the nazis from ukraine, but in the meantime they did not have an easy occupation regime there. The ukrainian partisans soviet partisans killed nazi officials very marked. Soldiers were marked officers. Blew up in the infrastructure they were using, made them pay a price for their occupation. We could well see If, unfortunately, this ends in a stalemate. For the time being, we could well see that type of insert, see gain momentum behind russian lines and and try to evict the russians that way. And then we mount the counter offensive later on in the future. If the first one doesn't succeed,.

So that would be further echoes of the war war to experience the scale once again as much sooner dollar the size of the armies here, they are not in the many hundreds, eight hunter thousand seven hundred thousand million to a million for that's not we're talking about today, but the weapons The crews missiles are, a re fire in artillery fire to be very inaccurate and it was like saturation. You would just fine higher towards the enemy lines. And if you hit something you had something in, if you didn't you just kept firing now you have drones lex and so artillery fire is now sniper fire pursuit and coordinated direction of the artillery fire with the drums, the drones can take a picture. Show you where the enemy is precisely located in

You can a line that artillery to hit them instead of just in this eminently bombing in area a territory and the nato supplied artillery goes really far and you fire into russian positions and yourself not be exposed to russian fire because you're artillery fires farther than theirs so that's coming and we're gonna see that inaction and saw the scale is not the same, but the weapons, the precision of some of the weapon, and some of the nato were not sending all of our stuff but ass? They the dynamic is russia commits atrocities, russia bomb schools, russia, bombs, hospitals, russia, kill civilians

and more and heavier and more lethal western weapons go to ukraine. Their willingness to risk their lives is really so impressive and the reason that we it's it's our duty were obliged to supply those weapons, and so the russians don't have that supply and the ukrainians do, and so the russians are now digging in lex. Being in deeply in areas that they have penetrated and they're trying to build on a saleable positions. Went for when the ukrainians transition from mostly defence to full scale offence and will see if that now numbing their digging everywhere. As they say,

compiled compiled right there digging everywhere behind your russian is beautiful. Digging in I wish looks like yours, but so so there are these things that we can predict. But there are these. Things were watching and watching closely. And on top of that something that's not One or two are for the most part of cyber attacks and cyber warfare, which is much less, perhaps convertible into human words, because it happens so quickly such large scales so difficult to trace and all those kinds of things. It's not bullets. It's electrical signals in the data, but those ukrainian people there, like you, lex they're young and their tech

actually really professions and they ve been amazing. You know they spent those teenage years in the basement. Playing video games not exert its useful. After all, it turns out it's more than useful. You save your country that way, and so they are not alone there getting support and that support is important, but really predominantly its ukrainians on the cyber battlefield and their skills have been very impressive and they ve been prepared for this for a number of years and they have a whole army of young people on the cyber site. It's their civilian population. These are not people conscripted into the mill, terry volunteering, wearing the uniform, and so even

cyber warfare. The ukrainians have been extremely impressive, and so, let's remember that all of these aspects of warfare, whether it's, how far your crews missiles go and how accurate they are, what size your site, burke capabilities. Are it's really ultimately about, though people it's about the human capital right? It's it's about. the their willingness, their skill, level, but also their willingness to fight and to put their lives on the line. And there is no substitute for that. And so what's called morale. or courage, or bravery or valor. That's really the ultimately decisive, provided you have enough sufficient arms. I took the fight, and, if you don't, you use molotov cocktails right, grandma

Holes in the coordinates of the russian tank on her iphone and you have a mile of cocktail, that of the people who used to work in the cafeteria are now stuff in flammable liquid into bottles, and you carry one right up to the tank and you smash it against the tank or you drop it in one of the hatches in the tank right that there's no substitute for that kind of stuff that that level of resolve willingness to die for your country. That's a really big lesson that we need to absorb in our own country. We've been going to war more frequently than we should and, like you said, without the justification all the time and then like Henry Kissinger, said without understanding how this was gonna end its easy, To start a war, its very difficult to win

or prevail in war and a war on terms that that meet your original expectations? we ve been fighting wars, but we haven't been fighting. Wars is past societies. We ve been fighting wars as a small sliver of our population, something like one percent of our population is involved with the military, because we have an all volunteer force, and that means that it's easier for our politicians to go to war because they don't face conscription. They don't fate, they don't have the draft, which affects the family in the country and because the number of people in the volunteer force such a narrow stratum of the population, and so you ve been getting away with this because the perfect, national army is much better than the conscript army and

a volunteer forces much preferable from a military point of view. But from a societal point of view it in both you to go to war too easily as a politician and it doesn't engage the society same way that the ukrainian society is completely engaged from those young hackers all the way up to those grandmothers me ask you years a scholar, history, a scholar, geopolitics and your also human, being that's kind of you, I'll take. That was the value. What's the hope was the power of conversation here he could sit down Vladimir Putin and have a conversation versus bullets. Human exchange, words is their hope. For those, and if so, what would you talk about? What would you ask him well

Henry Kissinger, you alluded His up ad he's had many private meetings with president putin over and over a long time and president Biden, the previous president's secretaries of state. Officials below secretary of state, the head of the cia, evidently met with president putin in the fall when he was massing. The troops on the border before he invaded and we we sent the the head of the cia and Putin received him. Somebody he evidently respects, or was at least willing to meet, unlike other member the administration, so a lot of people are talking to him

in some form or another for the twenty two years he's been in power and I'm not sure it's had what. Why would call their desired effect? What's the nature, the conversations interesting to, and also the timing, which is post february? Twenty second is different. And also another aspect which oliver stone mention. Interestingly, there there's something about covered in the pandemic that creates isolation, distancing. Such a silly little nuance thing, but maybe it's actually has a profound impact on the human being the human mind, Vladimir Putin, that there is something about it in person meeting and not across the table that far too large. Yes, but serve the intimacy of only one human to human in person. Conversation that there's something distinctly path

all about that reminder there. That's, as putin said, in the narrative in the propaganda, the wall, one people. There is truth to that that in order to manage yes, you're right people you can't have reminded by that, when you're sitting together, people who have sat across the table from him whether at thirty yards or a three have remarked upon this, feeling of isolation. Has that has affected him the pandemic? I think there must be something to that if, if several people who had been in the room with him, are remarking on everybody that I know, and I ve been able to talk to

whose had a meeting with him in the past ten years, including Henry Kissinger, the former secretary of state has said that pollutants spends a lot of time enumerating his grievances. He through a monologue of his grievances, and then the western des, and then the west lied to us about that and then the west cheated us on this. And so it's not. The conversation that urine, courage of common humanity. That roiling resentment volcano. That's just explore holding in his slow, the resentment and and by the time he gets through the monologue of the grievances

The time of the meeting is, is expired or or overtime. That's brilliant statement, but that's where the skill of conversation comes in like when you are facing a bull with red cloth. You have to learn how to avoid, along with the grievances and get to the humanity. That's that's a really boy, a city ideal for sure its scale and it's the highest level. Skill of a diplomat to be able to

reach some type of common understanding when interests and and and worldviews class. So much but here's your challenge, lex. Your challenge is: russia wants to impose a closed sphere of influence on its neighbours. It wants to dictate what its neighbours can. I can't do. It wants to exert influence not by the power of its example, not by the freedom of its people, not by the dynamism of its diversified economy, but it wants to, exert influence just because it deserves that. Just because it's a great power just because and on and on and on its civilization unto itself, and it wants that, and we can't give that.

The reason that russia was not integrated into the west was not for lack of trying. It was because Russia ultimately spurned the integration, because it was about what terms the integral she would come or would you come into the west and observe western rules and be another country, meaning just another country, there's poland and there's Austria and there's little tiny, monocle winners and this russia, and you just one of those countries and russia's answer to that- was no we're, not just one of those countries. We need special rules, we need special conditions, will integrate, but only as

special country, meaning like at the? U, when we're all countries are sovereign. All countries are members, but russia has a veto on what countries can akin to those were the terms on which they were willing to integrate, and those were the terms that no leader of a western country or the united states or the G7 or fill in the blank can grant to. Russia is very well known that vladimir Putin was one of the first mate the first person first leader, finally to call president bush after the nine eleven tragedy, they didn't connect right away. A president bush was not in washington, but eventually they did speak. He condemned the terrorist attack, he russian support, which he delivered on the use of

russian logistics for our half, Ghana stan operations and a lot of people point to that, and they say there. It is russia wanted to cooperate and did cooperate and we spurn them or we fail to appreciate russia's cooperation, and so therefore russia was cheated or russia was lie to, or russia's grievances are legitimate, but here's the problem with that argument. Lex. In exchange for that support, la deemer Putin asked, in return from president bush for a free hand in the former soviet space that clear,

most hierarchical sphere of influence, where russia would exert influence. Coercive Lee over countries that were sovereign and no american president could grant that and president bush was right. He said no, and so the attempted cooperation blew up but whose fault there. Should there be a non voluntary sphere of influence? Should that be granted, or should you face up to attempts to do that? You don't, let's take up a little detour here and that china, for a second china, had this brilliant branch strategy, which was sure america's hostile because america,

Had germanic american wants to control the world, America will never let china rise. America will do everything it can to hold china down. So we're gonna have hostility from america. We don't want to decouple, because we need that high and technology transfer either we buy it or we steal it costs america, americans, the rest of the west has all the technology that we need. We have some of it. The man sickly more than before by a lot, but we're still dependent. So we can't decouple so. We'll have the hostility but they'll be aligned. We don't cross just so that we don't lose the technology transfer. Till made in china, twenty thirty five is accomplished and where self sufficient domestically in a lie in every other area that critical but hostility. America, but we have a in the whole area, and the whole is europe. Europe hates conflict there all about trade.

It doesn't matter how evil you are. They love to trade, because vandal door handle change through trade. They have this illusion that you're gonna become a better country if they trade with you and you Won'T- have conflict war, and I still if you trade- and so we have this european ace, all warehouse with the americans were still buying or stealing their technology. Better than that, even the european and are not hostile to us at all. They loved to trade with us in the want to trade more their biggest trading partner already, and and behold. Sheeting ping sides with Vladimir putin in aggression in ukraine? He doesn't side with.

Providing military equipment. He doesn't provide technology transfer, but he provides public support and massive pro russian propaganda to the whole chinese population. and the europeans say, wait a minute. This is an invasion of a sovereign country in europe What do you mean you're not coming mean vladimir putin is invasion, and so that wedge, that the Chinese had. That was the basis of their grand strategy, wedge between the? U s in europe when it came to china policy that wedge is gone now, sheeting paying destroyed it and the europeans and the americans are coming close together on ukraine and russia policy for sure but also more and more on china policy, and so that was a pretty big sacrifice for the chinese leaders

make and what did he get in return? He gets hydrocarbons from russia at reduce prices. Chinese get hydrocarbons from a lot of countries. They have a completely diverse supply chain for their energy, The thing is, you is thinking now was it was a mistake or I'd like to know lex. I'd like you to be able to sit down with him across from this table here on your part can impose that same question him, because we have no idea The barrier that fast by the way you as the scholar of Stalin, do you think you'll ever breaks the language barrier to china ever. I apologise in in the next few years because there is a joy. Can culture

a language barrier between the west and the chinese? The great civilization in china predates the united states by millennia china's accomplishments breathtaking, but china is also lead. By, let's be honest, a communist party monopoly which engages in a lot of criminal behaviour lex. Tibet is ukraine. Shin job is ukraine, hong kong. Is you craig, let alone support for poor, You call this before we even discuss taiwan, and so now the europeans are coming to see this in the americans are coming to understand this. That may be trade with the regime like that.

Morally and politically criminally too bad shin John Hong kong, how is that different from what putin is doing in ukraine? I'd be hard pressed to defray She ate that, ultimately, even though the analogies are not exact and so The chinese. It's like that guy leona they author of legal at year the year, the great a memoir of the late soviet period, the end of the soviet union in all that they they spend. This time and all these resources blackening our image, but we supply them with endless material to blacken our image, that's where she doing things. Regime is right now lax, and so they have a big dilemma on their side. It's a western world

and they were united, the western world and and re awoken the rest of the world to the fact that china is a threat to values the institutions and values of the west, and that trade is not transforming china. Quite the opposite. We ll see if this endorse me the dozen indoor. Maybe it's a fleeting moment. Maybe this is not an inflection point. Maybe the war in ukraine ends more quickly than than we think and maybe, like you said, the chinese and the indians and the rest of them. The leaders there they get their wish that it ends in. The world moves on and forgets or says. Let's try again to to resume.

Our mutual understanding are mutually beneficial trade and everything else. Maybe it's a passing phase. We can exclude that I'm very poor predicting the future, but the moment is not a One for the chinese regime, let alone the fact that he's trying to impose an unprecedented in the modern era. Third term for himself is president's in the fall at the next party congress becoming president for life, a de facto a mouth like figure. And he's now gotta do that with in this environment, where he has damaged chinese grand strategy and damage the reputation of china and its relationship across the world, maybe not permanently, but significantly. In addition to the problem

They have at home demography. As you know, a middle income trap, and then the regulatory insanity of chinese communist rule that we ve seen what the tech companies that you know well, where they destroyed that value with the blow up of their property sector, because it was a massive bubble and that still playing out and this time it's the same meaning. This time it's not differ, when it comes to a property blow out. It has enormous effects on middle class balance sheet send their ability to to beat to remain consumers and drive the economy, which is the model that they have to shift. So he's got a litany of challenges, independent even of the fact that he sided with his

how bloody mere putin and their brother man is costing China very very significantly. If you close your eyes, yes and a hundred years ago, nineteen, twenty two and you think about the future. I wonder if you can hear the drums of war predicting the thirties predicting The great depression and the resentment that builds economic resentment, the culture of, the geopolitical resentment that builds at least the world war. Two. At least to me when I my eyes, I can hear the drums of war that are still ahead of us as possible that were there. Twenty two

He too will materialise in a similar way, as the nineteen twenty two I have my eyes closed lacks. Do you hear anything and I sure hope that that's not what happened but I'm looking at nineteen, twenty two, it's an epoch. I know well, and I don't see the future that on faults, I would not have predicted it had I been alive, then I The war behind us I see at prosperity on the horizon. Yes, inflation in germany and some many other difficult issues, but there are. Were democracies now than they were before the war and the old empires are gone, and there is a cultural efflorescence in theirs modernism in the arts and and there's women entering the public's

fear and there's all this fantastic new technology like automobiles and I'm looking at the future from nineteen twenty two in an hour seeing the great depression and I'm not seeing where war too and I'm not seeing the holocaust, because I dont predictive children, nobody in nineteen twenty two could see that future. Although I guess there were some clairvoyance who predicted it but But you're not one of them. He I one of them in and but This is what I know legs from studying history. What I know is stuff happens, in other words, to say. Another word of legs were watching. Ukraine war right now, and all of our attention is focused on that and it's, like the economist, say in their textbooks when they're they're, powerful models are employed and there's this line. That says all other.

Factors held constant calmer and then the model works and you get. This really great result is very powerful, predictor an analysis, the model and the whole game is all other factors held constant. The russia, ukraine more- that we ve been discussing in this could happen, and that could happen. But you know what stuff could happen: tax, for example, The israeli government could decide this summer, that is a bomb iran, because israeli government will tolerate IRAN. Acquiring a nuclear weapon pensions. President trump it'd unilaterally exited from the multi power nuclear agreement, Iran is now much closer to the bomb than they were when they were, one. The united states was still in that agreement and youth.

Tell me the israeli government that says sure it's fine, it's ok, IRAN can get the bar, and so maybe that, it's a maybe that happens as early as this summer as iran gets closer and closer and closer to maybe that guy in north korea decides it's his time. Just like his grandfather died in nineteen fifty decided. You know it's time, we're going to quote reunify unquote the korean peninsula may be. I dunno lex fill in the blank something's gonna happen. It's not going to be what I predict. It's not going to be what I'm watching it's going to be obvious only after it happens not before, and then it's gonna up and the table and all of a sudden everything changed

being a different environment, different circumstances and is ukraine still as central at that point as it seems to be right now I don't know the answer to that question. Let me ask to rapid fire question. Only allowed to have one minute as about predicting the future. Ok question, one vladimir putin When will he no longer be in office and will he stepped down or be overthrown? What's your prediction and a brief explanation that prediction now nobody can predict the future, but what's your sense now some people are saying the pressures building he's gone to be overthrown or step down at the end of this year,

as some people say, surely he's going to ah last outlast Stalin's rule of thirty plus years no evidence of a coup, yet none whatsoever. Yet he's much at life expectancy for a russian male. Those are bad numbers he's sixty nine be seventy So he's lived the life of a russian male already, but he's got better. Doctors. Then the majority of the right should males in that what say comparison set. So he could live a very long time with good doctors. So there could be a coup at some point, but there's none today in evidence. He could go because he's reached the life expectancy or he could stay for a long time

The thing to watch about this is an organisation that nobody pays attention to the effort so that further all nice loose, but from me She's the praetorian guard, the self standing bodyguard directorate, the only one the only organisation in russia that has any access to him. We ve seen no disloyalty, no breaking of ranks no defections, nothing in the public realm and an open sources about any divisions or problems in the effort, so in the praetorian guard. So if you can't break that change that

They licit defections there. You can overturn him nor a tearing regimes lex their terrible. They fail at everything they do not. They can't feed their people, they have trouble achieving any goals. They only have to be good. However, one thing they only have to be good at the complete suppression of political alternatives you can suppress political alternatives. You can fail at everything else, but you could survive is an authoritarian regime. So you watch nevada me then how that's must never live but you know refer it that look. That's maiden in the second rapid fire question is what happens in a voluntary one of the possible conclusions of will, you said quite possibly the second most influential powerful figure in russia is There is he going to dying in in jail. Will he become the next president of russia

well, what are the possible? I wish I knew legs. I've been surprised that he's still alive I've been worried that he will be killed in prison in a staged fight. You know some security officer, prison guard puts on a prison, outfit takes a lead, pipe goes into the cell, they have called fight and laval knees killed. I ve been afraid of that, but he still alive, even though he is serving a long sentence. So that leads me to guess the people inside the Putin regime and may be. President Putin himself understand that novel knee is their ticket to lift sanctions. That novotny is even more popular outside a rush, Then he is inside a rushing he's the leader

in many ways of the up political opposition in the country, even while still in prison, his organizations been destroyed. But if he doesn't have majority support in the population by any stretch of the imagination, but he's a big figure in the west, including here in the? U s and so novotny could be their ticket they're kind of get out of jail card, meaning they release him from prison. He gets appointed. I out are prime minister even by the Putin regime, if he were willing to accept such a position, and I have my doubts about that and then that's how they lobby to remove the sanctions against them. So he's a card that president Putin could play. And so maybe that's the reason he still alive, or maybe there are other reasons

that we don't know, and so some alternative to Putin is more likely to arise inside his gang putin skies shaker as they say right inside his gang where they tie air of his mistakes. They tire of his self defeating actions and they say patriotically for russia. We need to do something against move against the sky, be cause he's hurting our country and also because I could do better, I'm ambitious as well as patriotic, but once again the problem there lacks is poor, is surrounded by this, cocoon known as the effort so he's he meets on zoom, predominantly with the rest of the government, including with the defence and security officials. They know

frequent access to his person and, as you were looting earlier to the pandemic, they have the quarantine for two weeks before every meeting with. And, moreover, you know lex They don't know where he is. You see when they're on zoom with him and and the room, it's devolved die. His office in the vile die region, looks the same as his office in sochi or his office outside of moscow and nova agree over there, made up to look very similar on zoom and sure sums, Fines there looking where is it, but maybe there don't know, and so you can move on him and you gonna jump him in his kremlin out his daughter outside outside moscow, and it turns out he's in sochi or vice versa, and it turns out the effect.

Oh, is loyal to him and and won't let you anyway so lax, we don't know, but we watch this effort so really closely, and we think that the elites, if not putin- but maybe Putin to understand nevada me as a really big potential political card that they could play and one last question the biggest question you studied some of the darkest aspects of human history, human nature. The me asked the. Why question what are we doing here was the meaning of our existence, our life here on earth. What are we humans trying to get at here? I can answer that question either, but I can't say that having a purposeful life is is actually not that hard,

You can't you not gandhi. You know, president roosevelt you're not going to transform a country or civilization or become immortal because of your courage in your ear inside and in your genius critical moments But you live in an environment you're on a school you're in a workplace you're. You're somewhere, where you can affect other people in a positive way. It can be not just about yourself, but it can be about them and you can have a positive impact on other people's lives through the work that you do. Whether that's urine I meant or your charity you, your spare time. We work time. It can be by modeling proper behaviour right admitting your mistakes hard to do, but now

Sorry, remembering that you don't know everything you can predict a future, but you don't even know everything in your areas of expertise, fully reminder of that humility at times, but remind yourself too, so you can lead a life that can show others. What good I use are, and you can, lead a life that dedicates yourself not need to your own material well building, but to the well being and to the development others around you and it can be ANA a humble scale. It can be used. more classroom, more small workplace, a small work team, but but it can be done, and you can be reminded that having a positive impact, even on one other person gives far greater meaning to your own life and is profoundly satisfying much more sad,

fine! Then the attention you might get, let's say on social media or awards you might receive there's nothing wrong with pursuing those people pursue them and it's a free society, but leading up- this full life intentionally, is possible. Just one person. I love the expression, say one save the world just focusing the local and the tiny little different, again it in the world, can somehow ripple every day. If you think about that every single day, you're a better person a better society, and maybe you get to add a bitter loved the world after all, seven as a huge honour for many reasons, one of which is, I can just tell from its care you put into this conversation and how much in

I use the word love a lot, but I just feel the love. That's just even the respect you give me, which I can't tell you how an agenda that is how much they give me strength for my own silly little pursuits. Thank you so much for you, I thank you for not just talking today, but I give him you. So much respect just with everything you're doing is I I really appreciate that. May it makes me feel special, so thank you so much for sitting down and talking to this mutual lex. Thank you as well, and thank you for the respect that you've shown mean these are really difficult issues that don't have simple answers, but that doesn't mean we give We have to keep thinking and learning and trying and finding solutions in every we do, including on these his big global tragedies that we lived through and its heartbreaking. What's going on

it is just breaks my heart every day, a person who studies this has been studying this for decades and it keeps happening and you think again and yes, it is again, but but we still have to keep trying and we have to be inspired. By those people who are more courageous than we are and sacrifice more than we sacrifice in. For me, the russian invasion of ukraine, the war in ukraine, it is experienced in my study at home and in my office at princeton or my coming office at Stanford, when I moved full time to Stanford in september, or it's experienced far away in safety and in comfort, and we have to remember that too, when we talk about these things, when we answer your questions right that as we speak, and as we a comment and think we're experts on these things,

the comfort of our existence that there are people in those tragedies right now, but no power with no food with no. We will fall uncertainty about the future of the house and our children said, and I, and also seen because her family in both places homes that were home for buildings there were homes, generations now rubble so yes likes it, it just it hurts, and it's it's let's through its syria, where three hundred and fifty thousand, at least by you estimates died in russia participated in that and its young men and it's so many other places that don't have the same degree of attention that a european country like Ukraine has but here we have to remember also that in addition to ukraine,

and then there's things right home here in new york city, were children her without food, which is just inexcusable in a country this rich, so we- forget in our study of leaders in our study of geopolitics. That ultimately is about the humane, drastic human beings and said o careless, human suffering thank you so much. Thank you. This is amazing. Conversation talk to you against them. My pleasure, thanks for listening to this conversation with stephen kotkin, to support this podcast. Please check out our sponsors in the description and now let me leave you some words for mahatma gandhi. When I despair, I remember that all through history,

The way of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible, but in the end they always fall. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time. The.