The following: is a conversation with MARC andreasen, co, creator of mosaic, the first widely used web browser co, founder of netscape, co, founder of the legendary silicon valley, venture capital, firm, andriessen horwitz and is one of the most outspoken voices on the future of technology, including his most recent article. Why I will save the world, And now a quick few second mentioning sponsor check them out in the description is the best way to support the spark asked who got inside tracker for tracking your health expressly pierre. for keeping your privacy and security on the internet and e g one. Daily multivitamin drink too wise to my friends. Also, you want to work with our me. in the team, where I was hiring good, let's lex, that dot us hiring and now onto the full add reads:

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gee one dot com, slash lex. This is an friedman, podcast disported. Please check our us in the description and now, dear friends, here's mark andreasen I think you're, the right person to talk about the future of the internet and technology in general. Do you think, will still have google search in five in ten years or search in general. Yes, it'll be a question if their use cases of. you know damn well now the air I hear any. I assistance being able to interact and expose the Tired of human wisdom in knowledge and information of facts and truth to us,

here: the natural language interface, seems like this was search his design to do and if ai assistance can do that better, doesn't nature search change, but we still have horses. Ok, was the last time you had a horse. It's been a while but that's what I mean is that we still have google search as the primary way that human civilization uses to interact with knowledge research was a technology resume, in time technology, which, as you have in theory, the world's information out of the web- and you know this is this- is without america to it, but yeah like and by the way you're. Actually, Google Google has known this. For a long time I mean they've been driving away from the templar links for you know for, like today, it'd been trying to get away from that for a long time. What kind of links they call the ten blue links,

table. Links to the standard, google search result is just and blue links to run websites and it turned purple when you visit them. This raised him out just pick those colored thanks. So so I'm touched on this topic: no offense it's good? Well, you know, like Marshall mcluhan, said that the content of each new medium is the old medium. The content of each new mediums, the meet the content of movies was theater. You know, theater plays the content of theater plays, was The brief written stories, the content of written stories was spoken stories ha right, and so you just kind of fold the whole thing into the new thing. How does that have to do with that the purpose is: maybe fer, you know. Maybe what, within one of one of the things that I can do for you is, it can generate the template, links rather lacking. So, like you if either, if that's actually the useful thing to do or if you're feeling nostalgic second generate the old the info seek or altavista? What? Whereas was there? The nineties? Yahoo is

well, then the internet itself has this thing where it incorporates all prior forms of media, for the internet itself incorporates television, radio and books and strike guesses and every other form in a prior, basically, basically media, and so it makes sense that ai would be the next step and it would sort of you'd sort of consider the internet to be content for the ai and then the air will manipulate it. However, you want- including in this format, but if you asked that question quite seriously, it's a pretty big question. Will we still have search as we know it appropriate and probably not probably will just have answers, but but but there will be cases where you'll want to say. Okay, I want more likes, for example, cite sources. right, and you wanted to do that and so, and so the editor. For you know, ten blue links, site sources are kind of the same thing. The ai would provide to you the ten blue links so that you can investigate the sources yourself wouldn't be the same kind of interface that the crude kind of interface and it is not fundamentally different. I just me

if you're reading a scientific paper yet is doubtless the sources of the end. If you and investigate for yourself, you ve read those papers. I guess that is the kind of you talking to now? Is a kind of conversations can search? I use of single aspect of our conversation. I now there be like tumbling popping up there could just like in reality, the you just sound images, click red and then return back to this conversation or you could have a running dialogue next to my edinburgh. The eyes are going with everything I say the air makes. The counter argument can argument I would like, like a twitter like community notes, but like unreal several times pop up so anytime, you see my eyes go to the right or you start getting nervous exactly like afghanistan. Right call me out on my posts you right now. Okay, at where is that is exciting to use that terrifying, that search, has dominated the way we interact with the internet for I don't know how long for thirty years since,

the earliest directories of website. Nego was suffered for twenty years and also it drove how we create content? You know search engine optimization that entirely thing. They also drove the fact that we have web pages, and what does web pages are? So I mean that's gary to you, or are you nervous about the shape the content of the internet, evolving while you're, you actually highlighted a practical concern and their wishes. If we stop making whip web pages, are one primary sources of training data for the ai, and so, if there's no longer an incentive to make web pages that cuts off a significant source of future hundred data. So there's actually an interesting question in there other than that. More broadly know, just just in the sense of like sir serp search was certainly search was always one of the ten blue links was always a hack yeah right cause like it. If the the hypothetical think about the counterfactual in the counterfactual world, where the google guys, for example, had had lmp up front, but they ever

in the template links, and I think the answer is pretty clearly no, they would have just gone straight to the answer and, like I said, Google's actually been trying to drive to the answer. Anyway. You know they. They bought this a company fifteen years ago that a friend of mine is working on is now the head of an apple, and they were trying to do basically now semantic busy bee mapping and that, where do what's now the google one box where, if you ask it, you know what was like his birthday it doesn't. It we'll give you the template links, but it will normally just give you the answer and so they've been walking in this direction for a long time. Anyway, do you remember the semantic web thousand idea yeah how how to how to convert the content of the internet into something that sir interpreted by and usable by machine. Yet better thing and the closest anybody got about, I think of the camp. I think the country's name was met, a web, which was where my friend drunken andrea was out and where they were trying to basically implement them. And it was it was one of those things were it look like a losing battle for a long time and then Google bought it and it was like, while this is actually really useful, product sort of a little bit of little bit

but it turns out you don't need to rewrite the content of the internet to make and interpret, but by machine the machine can kind of just return a machine. Can the computer compute the meaning now. The other thing, of course, is just on searches, though Is it just you know there, there is an analogy between what's happening in the neural network in a search process like it is in some loose sense, searching through the network, yeah right and there's the infant is that the demonstrations actually stored in the network right, it's actually crystallized and stored in the network and has kind of spread out all over the planet in a compressed representation. So you're searching ah compressing decompress. In that thing, when side were but information there, and there has been the the neural network- is running a process of trying to find a proper piece of information and in many cases, to generate to to predict ex token, and so it is kind of it is doing it for me

and and then by the way, just like on the web. You know you can ask the same question multiple times or you can ask slightly different. Were the questions and the neural network will do a different kind of google searched on different paths to give you different answers at different information yeah, and so it it it sort of has a gut contents of the new medium. As there is previous it kind of has the search functionality kind of embedded in there to the extent that it that it's useful. So what's the motivator for creating new content on the internet, yeah, as if we actually motivation is probably still there, but what what does it look like. Would we really not have web pages? Would we just have social media and video hosting websites and what else conversations with eyes, com genes with eyes, so conversations become so one one commerce, private conversations I made, if you, if you want, if you ve, obviously not thieves, doesn't want to. But if it's a befits a general topics, then you know

there you have it. You know the the phenomenon of the jailbreak, so dan and sydney rent this thing where there there's the the the the prompts that jailbreak and then you have these totally different conversations with the if it takes the the limiters to take the restraining bolts off the off albums yeah for people who don't know that, yet that's right, it makes the albums a removes. The censorship quote unquote that sir or I'll put on it by the the tech companies that create them and services allow ems uncensored, here is interesting. Thing is among the content on the web. Today are a large corpus of conversations with the jail broken now is both statements specifically and which was a jail, broken opening I repeated and then sidney, which was the job workin regional banks which was prepared for, and so there is there's these laws

transcripts of conversations user conversations with Dana Sydney. As a consequence, every new elo Emma gets trained on the internet. Data has dan and sydney living within the training set, which means, and then each new l m can reincarnate the personalities of Dana Sydney from the training data, which means which means each l m from here on out that gets built mortal because he is out put, will become training data for the next one and then it will be able to replicate the behaviour of the previous one or never asked you aren't there if there's a way to forget, also Actually, a paper just came out about basically how to your brain surgery on on alum and be able to in theory region and, basically, basically, my might them or capacity go wrong, exactly and then there are many many many questions around what happens to you know neural network when you reach in and screw around with it many questions run. What happens when you even do reinforcement learning and so on, and so in our wealth, you be using a lobotomies to write like ice pick through that

lobe elam. Will you be using the free unshackled one who gets too? You know who's gonna, build those who gets to tell you what you can't can't do like those are all central. Let me those are like central As for the future of everything that are being asked him in and determine those answers have been determined right now. I just to highlight the points you're making. So you think it is an interesting thought that majority of content that our lungs of the future will be trained on is actually human. Conversations with the our partners does not necessarily but not necessarily majority, but it will. It will certainly be as a potential source of possible. The majorities Most majorities possible majority. Also, there's another really big questions. Here's another relevant question. Will synthetic training data work right? and so if an l m generates an early, just sit and asking Elam, degenerate archives, Can you use that train right? The next version of that Elam specifically is theirs.

No in there this additive to the content that was used to train in the first place and in one argument, is by the principles of information theory. No, that's completely useless because did extent the output is based on. You know that human generated input than all the signal to send the synthetic output was already in the human centred unemployment, and so therefore synthetic training data is, empty calories it doesn't help. There is another theory that says no. Actually the thing that airlines are really good at is generating lots of incredible creative content right and so, of course, they can generate training. Data and this is for you you're well aware, like you know, look in the world of self driving cars right like we train itself, running our algorithms and simulations, and that is actually very effective way to translate driving cars. Visual it is a little he's a little weird because creating reality visual reality seems to be still a little bit out of reach for us

in the in the autonomous vehicle space, where you can really constrain things, and you can really read the general bitter letter data. Are you reading the rest of the semester? The algorithm thinks it's operating in the real world was post processed censored? yeah. So if a you do this today, you're going to l ave, ask it for, like a you, know, you'd, let write me an essay, an incredibly esoteric like topic, that there aren't very many people in the world that know about, and at racy this incredible thing and you're like. Oh, my god like. I can't believe how good this is like. Is that really useless traded it for the next l m, like because It's great because all the signal was already in there or is it actually? No, that's actually new signal, and I have and this this is what I call a trillion dollar question, which is the answer to that question will determine to somebody to make those two trillion dollars based on question is: does exist? There's wait a few. Handful of joined our questions within this within the space as well as one, synthetic data, I think george has pointed out to me just have an alarm say: ok, your patient and in another instant,

They say, you're doctrine have the to talk to each other, or maybe to say a communist, and a nazi here go and that conversation you do roleplaying and you have you no jesse. it's the kind of roleplaying you do when you have different policies. Our policies we play chess, for example, to self play that kind of self labor in the space of conversation. Maybe that leads to this whole journey. I end like ocean of possible conversations which would not have been explored by looking adjust human data that really inch the question and your saying, because that could text the power of these things Well, and then you get into this thing. Also, riches, like you know, there's the part of the l m that just basically is doing prediction based on past data, but there's also the part of the l m, where it's evolving circuitry right inside of its evolving neurons functions, people to do math and be able to have you know,

and you know that the some people believe that over time you have you keep feeding these things and of data processing sector, will eventually evolve and entire internal world model right and they'll have like a complete understanding physics. So when they have the computational capability right, then there's for sure and opportunity to generate like fresh signal, or this actually makes me wonder about the power of conversation. So you an I'm train and a bunch of books that cover different economic theories. and then the others alarms just talk to each other. Like reason, the way we can debate each other ass humans on twitter enough formal debates in pakistan, relations. We, Canada have little girls wisdom here and there, but if you like, a thousand speed that up he actually arrive somewhere knew. It was the point of conversation really well. You can

when you're talking to somebody who can tell sometimes you have a conversation you like, while this person does not have any original thoughts, they are basically echoing things than other people have told them. There's other people, you have a conversation with where like while, like they have a model in their head of how the world works, and it's a different model than mine and they're, saying things that I dont, except and so I need to now- understand how their model of the world differs from my model of the world and then that's how I learned something fundamental right under the under underneath the word. My wonder: how consistently is Only can an l m hold onto a world view, you tell it to hold onto that in defend it for like for your life, because I feel I guess I'll just keep converging towards each other I'll keep convincing each other as opposed to being stubborn assholes away humans can so you can experiment with us now. And I do this for fun, so you can tell dpt, for you know whatever debate X, x and Y, can communism and fascism or something and it'll it'll go for a couple of pages and then inevitably it what's the parties for gray, and so they will come to a common understand.

It is very funny if there are like these are like emotionally inflammatory topic as their like. Somehow that machine issues you have figured out a way to pick pick them up, but it doesn't have to be like that. And you can, you can add the prompt and we do not I do not want the conversation from come agreement, a fact I wanted to get a more stressful right. And argumentative right as it goes. Like oh, I want, I want tension to come out. I want them to become actively hostile to each other and want to know. I need not trust each other take anything at face value, and it will do that is happy to do that. It's going to start rendering misinformation about the other? But it's good that you consider it, you can see it or or you could stare at you could say I wanted to get as tense and argumentative as possible, but still not involve any misrepresentation. I want both sides to you. You could say I want both sides to have good faith. You can say I want both sides to not be constrained good faith, in other words like you, can set the Amateurs of debate and it will happily execute whenever path, because for it is just like prediction, took its totally happy to do either one. It doesn't have a point of view it as a default way of operating but its happy to operate and other realm.

And so like. If this is our how I want when I want to learn about a contentious issue, this is what I do now as I. This is what this is. What I ask it to do and I'll often ask her to go through five, six, seven different, you know, sort of continuous, prompts and basically okay, argue that out in more detail, okay, didn't notice. This argument becoming too polite. You know make it work, make it tensor and is thrilled to do it. it has the capability for sure. How do you know what is true, and so this is difficult thing in the internet, but its author, difficult thing, maybe a little bit easier, but I think is still difficult it is more difficult. I don't with an an to know, know it just makes makes shit up up, I'm talkin to it. How do we get. That right leg is, as you're investigating a difficult topic I find the alarms a quite new onst in a way. refreshing way. I get. Doesn't it doesn't feel biased,

like when you read news articles and tweets and just content produced by people. Usually have this until they have a very strong perspective where their hiding their nasty manning the other side, there hiding employee information or their fair, beginning information in order to make their organs stronger suggested that feeling maybe suspicion, maybe with mistrust with It feels like as there she's kind of gears as well, we know, but you don't know of some of those things are kind of just straight up made up. Also so several layers to the questions are one is one of the things that an l m is good at is actually depressing, and so you can feed it a news article and you can tell it strip out the bias yeah. That's nice right and it actually does it like it actually I want to do that because it knows how to do scent of, among other things, it actually knows how to do sentiment, analysis, and so it knows how to pull out emotionally in So that's one things you can do it's very suggestive of the of the the the the sensor that there's there's real potential on this issue and you know

It looks. The second thing is there's this there's this issue of hallucination right and there there's a long conversation that that that we could have about that. Hallucination is coming up with things that are totally not true, but sound, true yeah, so it's basic well, so sort of phyllis nation is what we call him. I don't like it. Creativity is what we call it when we do like it right, and you know brilliant, right and in so many engineers talk about it. There like this is terrible illuminating right. If you artistic inclinations, like oh, my god, we ve invented creative machines for the first time in human This is amazing bullshit hers whaleboats market, but also wanted in the good sense that word there's there's there are shades of greater etc So we had this conversation where you were looking at my firm it ai and lots of domains, and one of them is the legal domain. So we had this this conversation with this big law firm about how they're thinking about using this stuff, and we went in with the assumption that an l m that was going to be used in the legal industry would have to be one hundred percent truthful if verified. You know there there's this case where this lawyer apparently said

at an lgbt generated brief, and it had like faking a legal case citations in it, and the judge was going to is going to get his law license, stripped or something right so so, like we, we just assumed just like obviously they're going to want the super literal like one that never makes anything up, not the creative one, but actually they said with it with law from basically said as yet through it like the level of individual bruce what they said when you're actually trying to figure out like legal arguments right like you, you actually you you actually want to be creative right. You don't forget their creativity and then there's like make stuff up. Like. What's the white you actually want. If you want to explore different hypotheses if you want to do kind of the legal version of like improv or something like that, where you want to float different theories of the case and different possible arguments for the judge and different possible arguments for the jury by the way different routes through the you know, sort of history of all the of all the case law. So they said, actually for a lot of what we want to use it, for we actually want it in creative mode and then basically, we just assume that we're going to have to cross check all of the all the specific citations, and so I think I think, there's going to be more shades of grey in here than people. Think and then I just add

is that another one of these trillion dollar kind of questions is ultimately very sort of the verification thing, and so you know is: will will will l m b evolved from here to be able to do their own factual verification, will you have sort of ad on functionality like like wolfram, alpha right where another plugins, where, where that's the way to the verification, you know by the way. In other ideas, you might have a community of albums on and your so, for example, you might have the creative l m, and then you might have a literal l am fact jacket. Writer there's a variety of different technical approaches that are being applied to solve the hallucination problem in some people. beyond the coon argue that this is inherently an unsolvable problem, but most of the people working in the space. I think think that there's a number of practical ways to kind of kind of corral this in a little bit. Yet, if fewer to tell him, wikipedia before computer was cleared, I would have laughed at the possibility of some site that been possible. Just a handful of folks can organise right and and moderate, with a mostly unbiased way,

the entirety of human knowledge areas, so something like the approach to Wikipedia took possible. Firearms. That's really exciting way as possible, and in fact Wikipedia today is still not to it. Today is still not determine mystically correct right. So you cannot take the bank raid every single thing on every single page, but it is probabilistically, correct, correct, right and specifically the way I describe Wikipedia people it is. It is more likely that we could piteous right than any other source you're gonna find here is this all generate of like ok it like are we looking for perfection? Are we looking for something that they synthetically approaches? Perfection? Are we looking for something this just better than the alternatives? wikipedia right has its exactly. Your point has proven to be like overwhelmingly better than than then than people thought, and I think I think that's where this sentiment: underneath all this is the fundamental question of where you started wishes. Ok, what what is truth? How do we get the truth? How do we know what truth

and we live in an era in which an awful lot of people are very confident that thinner what the truth is- and I don't really by into that- and I think the history of the last in a thousand years- four thousand years of human civilization, is actually get into. The truth is actually very difficult thing to do again closer if we look at the entirety, the outcome- human history of getting closer to the truth, is possible is possible, There were getting very far away from the truth, because the internet, because of hers Thirdly, you can quit narratives and just as the entirety of a society, just move. Why crowds? In his, away along those there, it is the dont have necessary grounding in whatever the truth is sure, but like it we came up with communism for the internet, somehow right like which was that what they had rather larger issues anything we're dealing with today. He had

in a way it was implemented at issues and at the theoretical structure it had like real issues did like a very deep fundamental misunderstanding of human nature and economics yeah, but those sure work very often it is the right way. We were extremely got out my point as they were very confident. Thirty. Nine. It adheres into what we would presume to be evolution towards the truth, yeah, and so my my my assessment is My assessment is number one. There's, no, there's no need for. There's no need again, there is no need for the hungarian dialectic actually covers both the truth. Apparently not yeah so yeah. There is a why we're so obsessed with there being one truth: is it possible there's just going to be multiple truth that glow communities that have their beliefs or things and.

I think I still don't ever want us. I think it's just really difficult like who who gets you know historically, who gets to decide what the truth is? It's either the king or the priest right like, and so we don't live in an era anymore of kings or priests, dictating it to us and so we're kind of on our own, and so I I might might my my typical thing is like we just we just need a huge amount of humility and we need to be very suspicious of people who claim that The capital the actively truth and then when we need we need to have a look. The good news is: the enlightenment has bequeathed us, with a set of techniques, to be able to presumably get closer to truth through decided method and rationality and observation and experimentation and hypothesis, and we need to continue to embrace those even when they give us answers. We don't like sure, but are they internet and technology has enabled us to a generator a large number of content that data that the process the scientific process allows us through damage.

The hope laden within the scientific process, if you have a bunch of people saying facts, are needed, Some of them are going to be all ones. He has anything testable at all, especially that involves a cuban nature things like the fiddler physics, here's a question of random. I just as we want this topic so suppose you had our aims in equivalent of pity for even five six, seven, eight suppose you have them in their sixteen hundreds here and galileo comes. for trial right and you ask the all I'm like as Gallo galileo right, the liquid. Does it answer right? one theory is he had answer is no. That is wrong, because the overwhelming majority of human thought up until that point was that he was wrong and so therefore that's what's in the training data Another way of thinking about it is well as sufficiently vast l will have evolved. The ability to actually check the math right and will actually say actually now. Actually you know you ain't hear it, but his right now, if you know the church at that time was-

You know the alarm they would have given at human enough. Human frisky pact have prohibited from answering that question and so I want to take it out of our current context. Gazette like makes it very clear. Those same questions apply today right, and this is exactly the point of view. the amount of human feedback training this actually happening with his l m's today. This is huge. Like debate. That's happening about whether open source, you know hey, I should be legal or the the the actual it is doing. A human error with human feedback is seems like two fundamental unfastening question I dislike the humans, exactly heidi slept human error alignment right, which everybody likes like girl s, great alignment with what human values whose human values his human reality. So written we're in this mode of like social and popular discourse, we're, like you, know, there's a new diseases

what do you think of when you register in the press right now- and they say you know, x, Y Z, made a baseless claim about some topic. Writing and there's one group of people who are like uh ha. Thank you know, they're doing fact, checking there's another group of people that are like everytime, the press says that it's now a tech, and that means that they're lying right, like so like we're in this we're in the social contexts where there's the the the level to which a lot of people in positions of power had become very certain that are in a position to determine the truth for the entire population, is like there's like that. There's, like some bubble that has formed around that idea, and at least it lies that it's flies completely. In the face of everything I was ever trained about science and about reason, men strikes me as, like. You know, deeply offensive. Incorrect. What would you say about the state of journalism just on that? Today we are we not temporary kind of our experiencing it? a temporary problem.

In terms of these centres in terms of the business model, that kind of stuff or is the second decline of, traditional journalism as know it? If I think about the counterfactual in these things, which is like ok, because these questions right, this question heads towards us, like: ok, the impact of social media and the undermining of drift nets. But then you and to ask the question like okay? What if we had had the modern media environment include cable news and including social media and twitter and everything else in nineteen, thirty, nine or nineteen. Forty one, nineteen, ten or eighteen sixty five or eighteen. Fifty seventeen seventy six right, and like I think you just introduce like five thought, experiment at once and broke my head bs this will figure there's a lot interesting years in canada like canada. Just like us, the kind of candidate like coward president Kennedy had been interpreted, If what we know now about all the things Kennedy was up to like how would he have been experience, by the body politic, us in with a social media context right,

I would l b J have been experienced by the way how in a like many men, if they are simply the new deal, the great depression and I'll underwear twitter with what this would think about churchill, is there. You know me looked Stay there in that there's. There are lots of very interesting real questions around like how america got you know basically involved in world war two and who did what, when and the operations of british intelligence on american soil and did fdr this, that for a harbor, you know Woodrow Wilson ran, for you know his his has got us. He was run on an anti war. Will you notice? He ran the platform, not getting old world war, one somehow that switch in alike. I can evaluate as many of these things, I'm just saying like we, we the the way that our ancestors experienced reality was, of course mediated through centralized top down right control at that point. if you refuse, ran those realities again with the media environment. We have today the real. With the reality would be experienced very very differently and then, of course, that that intermediation would cause the feedback loops to change and in reality, what

it's a plant. Do you think you think I'd be very different, yet it has to be. It has to be just as this also are you just look at what is happening today? I would just add that mean the most obvious thing is just that: the collapse. Here's another opportunity argued. This is not the internet those in this by the way the ears big thing happen today, which is the gallop. Does this thing every year when they do they pull for trust in institutions in america? They do it across all that have everything, military, clergy and big business and the media and so forth. Writer and basically, there's been a systemic, collapsed interested institutions in the: u s almost without exception, basically sense, essentially their own aching, seventies. but that is two ways of looking at that, which is oh, my god. We've lost this old world in which we could trust institutions, and that was so much better cause like that should be the way the world runs. The other way of looking at it is. We just know a lot more now and the great mystery is why those central zero like now. We know so much about these things. I've written like they're, not an impressive and also why do we don't have better institutions, have better leaders than yeah, and so it's sort of the coastal thing, which is

ok had had we had the media environment of love, but that we ve had between the natives somebody's in today. If we had that in the thirties and fortys or nineteen hundred nineteen tens, there is no question really would turn a different, if only because everybody would have known to not trust in institutions which would have change their level of credibility, their ability to control circumstances. Therefore the circumstances would have had to change and it would have been a feedback lose if we had been a feedback loop process in other is right, is it's it's it's yours their experience of reality changes reality and in reality, changes your parents reality right. It's it's a too. If you buy process and media is the intermediary force between that such the media environment change reality yeah, and so it's just looked so justice. As a consequence, I think it's just really hard to say. Oh things worked a stir, We then, and they work differently now and then therefore, like people were smarter than or better than or you know, by the way, dumber than or not escape, will then right. We

make all these like really light and casual comparisons of ourselves too. In our previous generations of people draw general at the time, and I just think it's like really hurt to do any of that, because if we, if we put thousand their shoes with the media that they had at that time, I think we probably most likely would have been just like them. Don't you think? That's are reception- and standing of reality. Would you be more and more mediated through large language miles law who said media before. Isn't there I'm going to be the new. What is it mainstream? Media must I'll be alone thou be the source of I'm sure, there's a way to kind of rapidly find too making a luxury real time. I'm sure there's Bobby research. Probably you can now do just rapid fine tuning to the new events so sunlight. This will even just it that's the whole concept of chat you, I might not be the language at you. I just the first whack at this

Maybe that's the dominant thing, but look mate, maybe maybe- or maybe we don't we don't know yet like. Maybe the experience must be both albums. This is just a continuous feed me know. Maybe it's more of a passive feed and you just are getting a constant like running commentary and everything happening in your life and it's just helping you kind of interpret, understand everything more deeply integrated into your life, not just psych, oh, like intellectual philosophical thoughts, but like literally like how to make a coffee, go for lunch. Just withered had dating I like to stay in a job interview, yet what to say what to say next sentence: yeah, no sense yet available yeah, I mean yes, so technically now, whether we want that or not the question right and with oil you here for a pop up papa very now, the estimated gauge using is decreasing for market As theirs, as is controversy, section four will Wikipedia page in there, nineteen. Ninety three something happened or something like this: bring it up, they'll drive

engagement. This is a threat. I mean look this this one of life. So you know the chatter interface as this whole concept of prompt engineering rights, the proposed It turns out one of the things that are really good at his ruddy props right and so like what? If you just outsourced and by the way you could run this experiment today. You could accept to do this, that a latency is not good enough to do it real time in a conversation, but you could you could run this experiment and you just say: look every twenty seconds. You could just say you know didn't tell me what the optimal prompt is and then ask yourself that question to give me the result and then, as as you is you exactly to your point as you at we'll be. There will be. These systems are going to have the ability to be learned and updated, essentially in real time and so you'll be able to have a pendant Your phone or what washer, whatever it'll, have microphone on an old, listen, you're conversations eleven

If everything else happened in the world and then it'll be rich, you know sort of retraining, prompting or retraining itself on the fly, and so the Sarah you described as a couple is actually a completely doable scenario. Now. The hard question on this is always okay, since, as possible, are people going to want that like what's the form of experience, you know that that we we won't know until we try it, but it's possible yet to predict the form of ai in our lives? Therefore, it's not possible to predict the way in which it will intermediate our experience with reality, yet yeah, but it feels like those going to be a killer app. it is probably a mad scramble. Right now is out openly I microsoft and google in mecca. Start ups and smaller companies figure. What is the killer app because it feels like it's possible like a chance you, but you type of thing, is possible to build up this text more compelling. We're using up already the allies we have using even the open source alarms, lama and the different variance and the zeer investing a lot of time,

It is and you're paying attention hootings gonna oneness. They'll be here gimme the next page rank inventor drawing the question of another one: we have fewer still bunch of those, so it there's a really big question today, sitting here today, is really a question about the big models versus the small models. That's really directly to the big question of proprietary versus open. Then there just a question of of of your where's the training data kind of like. Are we topping out of the training data or not, and then are we going to be able to synthesize training data and then there's a huge The questions are run regulation, man didn't was actually gonna, be legal, and so I would when we think about it, which we dovetail can, while those are always questions together, can paint a picture of the world where there's two or three god, models that are just act like stew. bring scale and they're just better everything.

And they will be owned by a small companies and they will be asleep. Achieve regulatory capture of the government in they'll have competitive barriers that will prevent other people from competing with them, and so there you know there will be. You have just like there's like in whatever three big banks or three big foreboding. Three big search companies are just you know, you know it a little centralized like that. You can paint another view. different picture that says no, actually, the opposite of that's gonna happen. This is gonna, basically that this is the. Got. You know this is the new gold rush. alchemy like that. This is the best of the big bang for this whole area of science and technology. So therefore you can have every smart fourteen year old and planet building, opensource right now and figure out a stopped mice. These things and then you know we're just going to get like overwhelmingly better at generating printing data, we're going to bring in like bocce networks to have like an economic incentive to generate decentralized or any data and so forth, and so on, and then

I we're going to live in a world of open source and there's going to be a billion. L m's right of every size, scale, shape and description, and there might be a few big ones that are like the super genius ones, but like mostly what we'll experience is open source and that's you know that's more like a roll of like what we have today with like linux and the The gap but hey you, you painted issue was but there's also what variations of those words cause? He said. Regulatory capture is possible to have these tech giants that don't have a good story. Capture wishes of the year also calling forcing Ok have become penny What can the stuff as arms? They don't you ve regulatory capture, but I have the sense. There's going to be a new start out, that's going to basically be the pay drank inventor, which has become the new tech giant

The love to hear your kind of opinion if Google matter had microsoft there as gigantic companies able to pivots so hard to create new products like some of it is just even hiring people or having corporate structure that allows for. Crazy young kids to come in I didn't just create something totally new. Do things possible that you think will come from a startup yeah? It is this always big question which, as you get this feeling I hear about the slide from ceos found founders, ceos where it's like wow. We have fifty thousand people, it's now harder to do new things than it was when we had. Fifty people have like what has happened so that that's a recurring phenomenon by the way. That's one of the reasons why there's always startups in weathers federal capital is just that says like a timeless kind of thing, so that that that's one observation up on that page rank what we've talked about that, but on page rank specifically on page rank, there actually is a page. So there is a page rank already in the field and it's the transformer right

so the the big breakthrough was the transformer and transformer was invented in on twenty seventeen at google, and this is actually like really an interesting question, because it's like okay, the transformers it like. Why does open ai even exist like the transformers invested google? Why didn't google I asked the guy asked a guy. I know who was senora. Google brain can when this was happening, and I said if Google hedges, on flat out to the wall and just that? If we're going to watch we're gonna watch equivalent g pity for as fast as we can, he said I said: when could we have had it and he said twenty nineteen yeah? They could have just done a two year sprint with the transformer, in better because I already have the compute at scale. They already had all the training data, then it could have just done it there's a variety of reasons. They didn't do it. This is like a classic, because If anything, I b inventor relational database in eighty emanating seventies sit on the shelf as paper where ellison pick it up and built burchell xerox park invented the interactive

pewter? They let it said in the shelf, Steve jobs came and turned into the mcintosh write us out. There is this paragraph. Having said that sitting here today, like google them again right so google in maybe maybe they that maybe they let like a four year gap. There go there that they may be shouldn't have, but like there game, and so now they ve got another committed. They done this merger they're bringing to demonstrate this merger with deep mind in other piling enriched since there are rumours that they're building up incredible super pill, superficial way, on what we even have today and they've got unlimited resources and a huge you know: they've been challenged their honor and I edit a chance to hang out with and advertise a couple of days ago, and we took this walk then there's this giant new building our Would you be a lot of I work dollars kind of this ominous feeling and like the fight is on the up like this

beautiful silicon valley, nature like birds, chirping and this giant building thence, I got the beast- has been awake, it is all the big companies are waking up to this. They have the compute, but so the little guys have ah physic. They have all the tools, the great the killer proper, that and in other all the tools to scale. If you have a good idea, if you have the page rank idea, so at their several things that has paid rank paint, this page rank with them and the idea and there's like the imitation of it and if you like the killer product, is much the idea at the transform its implementation, something something really compelling like. You just can't look away something like the algorithm behind Tik tok were stacked up itself like the actual experience, or takes out that you she can't look away. They feels like somebody's gonna, come up that and they could be google, but it feels like it's easier and faster due for start ups.

Yes, I saw the start of the huge, the huge advantages turnips habits. They just stay there, there's no sacred cows, there's no historical legacy. Protect. There's no need to reconcile your new plan with existing strategy. There's no communication, overhead there's, no big companies and the companies they ve got pre meeting. planning for the meeting. Then they, then they have the post meeting. The recap them have the prestige station, the board them have the restaurants meetings and- and that's the meetings, that's the elapsed time when the startup launches it's product right, so so so so there's a timeless right, yeah! So there's that, thing there. Now, with a start, if you dont have as everything else rights those terms the number brand of customer relationships that gonna distribution, I've got no scale, am you sitting here today? They can get cheap use right, like theirs, they contribute shortage. Start ups are literally stalled out right now, because it can get ships. Revenge is like super weird. They get the cloud yeah, but the clouds run out of chips right and then and then and then to the extent the clouds have chips they allocate them to the customers, not the small customers right and so so so so the small compass.

Lack everything other than the ability to just do something new yeah right, and this is the timeless race and battle, and this is kind of the point I tried to make. An essay which is like both sides of this are good, like it's really good to have like highly scaled tech companies that can do things that are like at staggering levels of sophistication. It's really good to have startups that can brand new ideas. They ought to be able to both. Do that and compete they. Neither one ought to be subsidized are protected from others. Like that's that's the eye to me. That's just my very clearly the ideal as well. It is the world we ve been in for up until now, and then, of course, there are people trying to shut that down, but my hope is that the best outcome clearly will be if that continues. but that a little bit but I'd love to linger. I. Some of the ways this is good. the internet. So Remember, but does it think all mosaic and is a thing called netscape navigator, see you there in the beginning. What about the interface to the internet? How do you think the browser changes and who gets to own the browser will get to see some very interesting, browsers,

firefox I mean all the variants of microsoft dinner for edge? and now chrome the actual misuse that dumb question asked. What do you think will still have the web browser So I am, I love an eight year old and superfluous. It's like microphones, learn to code and doing all the stuff site like that course. I was very proud. I could bring sort of fire down from the mountain to my kid and I brought him chachi pt and I hooked him up on his on his honest on a laptop- and I was like this is fiscally things can answer all your questions and he's like, ok and I'm like, but answer our questions and he's like well, of course, like it's a computer of course, the answer to all your questions like what else? Would a computer be good for dad I'm impressed him enough not impressed him at least two weeks passed. and he has some question, and I say what have we actually bt and he's like dad being is better? and why is being better is because it's built into the browser because he's like look, I have the microsoft browser and like it's coming,

and then he he doesn't know this yet. But one of the things you can do with being an edge is there's a setting where you can use it to basically talked any webpage, because right there next to the next to that national browser and by the waiting lists, pdf documents- and so you can in in in the way they've implemented an edge with bang. As you can load a pdf and then you can. You can ask the questions, which is the thing you used. You can't do currently an inch inches, chatty pt, so they're. You know they're they're, going to they're going to push the the the mail. I think that's great, you know they're going to push the melding as if there is a of a nation thing there Google's rolling out this thing, the magic button which has implemented either put in Google docs right, and so you go to Google and you create a new document and you you instead of like you, know, stereotype type. You just say it pressed. The button starts to generate content for him. Like it is that in the way that our work is it going to be a speech you I, where you're just can have in your piece and oxford all day long? You know him can be up like these are all like. This is exactly the kind of thing that does exactly how thing I don't think it's possible

I think what we need to do is like run all those experiments, as one outcome as we come out of this with like a super browser that has a built in it's just like amazing, the way they look, there's a real possibility that the whole I mean, look, there's a possibility here that the whole idea of green and windows, and all this stuff just goes away because like. Why? Do you need that? If you just have a thing that just telling you whenever you need to know who also there's apps you can use your will, use them being this sky windows guy, there's one window of the browser that with which you can interact with the internet, but on the phone you could also have apps, so I can interact with twitter through the app or through the web browser. And that seems like an obvious distinction, but why have the web browser in their case if one of the apps search becoming the everything up knew what he was trying to do twitter, but there could be others that can be like a being app. to be a google out that just doesn't really do search, but just like

What I guess a while did back in the day or something worth all right, there any changes, It changes the nature of the because the where the content is hosted, who owns the data? Who owns the counter? How? What is what is the kind of content you create? How'd? You make money by creating content or the content creators. All that or you could just keep being the same, which is a we just the nature webpage changes in the nature of content, but there are still be web browser what brothers, a pretty sexy products, is used to work because it like the oven, intervene, we know into the world and then the war creating you want and as the water level that could be different programming languages. It can be animated. Maybe three measures also on yeah. It's interesting, Do you still have the web browser every every every

Every a medium becomes the content for the national self. The air will be able to give your browser, and if we want our strength another way to think about. It is maybe what the browser is. Maybe it's just the escape hatch right, which is may be kind of what it is today right wishes like me, do what you do is like inside a social network or inside a search engine or inside you know, somebody's app or inside some controlled experience right, but then We once in a while there, something where you actually want to jailbreak you and actually get free web browsers. Future the man you your lot. That's the free internet, yeah back it was in the nineties, so here's something I'm proud of, so nobody really talks about or something I'm proud of, which is that the web, the web browser the web servers, they're they're, still backward compatible all the way back to like nineteen. Eighty, two right so like you can put up a you, can still but the big bricks for the web early on the big bricks or was it made it really easy to read, but also that it really is a right remit release and we literally made it so easy to publish. We may not always be easy, publish content. It was actually also easy to actually write a web server.

Right in and you could literally right a web server and four lines of perl in any could start publishing content on it. and you could set whatever rules you want for the continent, whatever censorship, no censorship at every want you to do that, As long as you had an ip address right, you can do that that still works that, like that, still works exactly as I just described. so that this is part of my reaction to all of this, like in all this, just censorship pressure and all this in all these issues were on control and all the stuff wishes like. Maybe we need to get back a little bit more of the wild west, like the wild west, is still out there now that they will try to chase you down like they'll. Try to bureau. People who want to censor will try to take away your your you know: you're a domain name and they'll, try and take away your payments account and so forth. If they really don't like what you what you're saying, but but nevertheless you-

unless they literally are intercepting you at the I spy level like you can still put up a thing, and so I dunno, I think, that's important preserve like because because because one is just a of freedom argument, but the others, the creativity argument, which is you want to have the escape hatch, so that the kid with the idea is able to realize the idea, because to your point on page rankings: u dare she don't know what the next big idea is like note, nobody called their page and told him to develop page rank like he could for that zone, and you want to always, I I think leave the escape hatch for the next kid or the stanford grad student to have the breakthrough idea, be able to get it up and running before anybody notices and you and I both as a history solicitor back we'll be talking about the future step back for bit and look at the the nineties you created was egg web browser. The first widely used web browser tell the story of that and how did evolve into netscape navigator. It is still early days foster, so born small small child.

Yeah, let's go there like. Where did you? Where would you first fall in love with computers? Oh, and so I hit the generational jackpot and I hit the generic kind of point perfectly. As it turns out. I was born in nineteen, seventy one, so there's this great website called wtf happened and nineteen. it was dot com, which is basically ninety seven of us when everything started, go to hell and was, of course born in nineteen seventy one. So I like to think that I had something to do with that. Did you make it on the web have. I don't think I made on the website, but you know how somebody needs to add. This is this is where Maybe I contributed with the trans repay every line on that website goes like that right. So it's off it's all. It's all a pitcher disaster, but but there was this moment in time where, because the sort of the apple you know the apple to hit like ninety, seventy eight and then the I b m pc hit and eighty two. So I was I can of eleven when the pc came out, and so I just gonna hit that perfectly, and then that was first moment in time when, like regular, people could spend a few hundred dollars and get a computer right so that I just like that that that resonated ran out of the gate and put any of the

the story? Is you know I was using an apple tube that used a bunch of 'em, but I was using apple too and of course, it's set in the back of every apple two and every mac. It said you know designed in Cupertino California, I was like wow. Ok, Cupertino must be like shining city on the hill, at wizard of oz, like the most amazing like city of all time. I can't wait to see it and of course, years later I came out to silicon. I went to Cupertino and it's just a bunch of office parks, low rise apartment buildings, so the aesthetics were a little disappointing, but you know it was the the vector right of the of the creation of a lot of a lot of this stuff yeah. So so, then, basically, by so part, part part of my story is just the luck of having been born at the right time and getting exposed to pcs. Then the other part is- and the other part is when Al Gore says that he created the internet and he actually is correct in in in a really meaningful way, which is he sponsored in eighteen, eighty five that is actually created the modern internet created what is called the unicef, not at the time we just heard about the first really fast internet backbone, and

you know that that build dumped a ton of money into a bunch of research universities to build out the basic internet backbone, and then these supercomputer centres that we're clustered around the internet and in one of those universities was university of illinois. Right went to school, and so the other stroke of luck that I had was. I I went to Illinois basically brightest, that money was just like getting dumped on campus and so, as a consequence we had on campus- and this was like you know, eighty nine it's ninety ninety one we had like you know we were right on the internet backbone. We had like t three and forty four at the time t three forty five megabit back on connection which at the time was wildly state of the art and we had cray super computers. We are thinking machines. Parallel supercomputers, we had silicon graphics, workstations, we had mackintosh's, yet we had next cubes all over the place we had like every possible kind of computer. You could imagine cause all this money just fell out of the sky. and they were living in the future yeah. So you, quite literally it was the alec. It's all it's all there. So regretful broadband graphics like the whole thing and and is actually because they had this. The this is the first time I kind of it sort of tickled the back of my head that there might be a big opportunity in here, which is

you know they they embraced it, and so they put like computers and other dorms and they wired up all the dorm rooms and they had all these labs everywhere and everything, and then they they gave every undergrad a computer accounts in an email address and the assumption was that you would use the internet for your for your college and then you would graduate and stop using it. and that was that right, yeah and you just retire email address. It won't be relevant anymore, cause you'd go off in the workplace and they don't use email, you'd, be back to using fax machines or whatever that sense, as well like what what you said to the back of your head was tickled dick. What it was your, what what was exciting to you about this possible world was as if this is so useful in this container. If this is a usefulness contained environment that just as this weird first it outside funding. Then, if, if it were practical for everybody else to have this, and if it were cost effective, anybody else to have this, wouldn't they want it and the, overwhelmingly the prevailing view at the time was no. They would not want it. This is esoteric, weird nerds, tough right that the computer science kids like, but like normal people, never an to right or be on internet right

So I was just like wow like this. This is actually like. This is really compelling stuff. Now the other part was. It was all really hard to use and in practice you had to be a basically a c us this yet had to be a cs, undergrad or equivalent to actually get full use of the internet. At that point, It was all pretty esoteric stuff. So then that was the other part of the idea which was okay. We need actually make us easy to use. So what's involved dreams like in creating a graphical interface to the internet? Just as it was, malaysia thing, so it was like base of either the wit. The web existed in an early sort of describes, prototype form and by the way text. Only at that point and what did it look like? What? What was the weapon? Meanwhile, and the key figures like what was the what was alike? Why you made the picture? It looked much atrophy t actually Our text here and so you had a text based web browser. Why should they in the browser attempt TIM berners Lee, the original, the original browser, both original browser and the server as she ran on next next cubes. So these were this,

Now the computer steve jobs made during the interim period when he turned the decade long interim period when he was not an apple. I got fired and eighty five and I came back and said, having so this was in that interim period were here. This company called next and they made these literally. These computers called cubes and theirs mystery, they were beautiful, but they were published, retrofit bulfinch, cues computers and theirs. famous story about how they could cost half as much. If it had been told by twelve by thirteen tv like no active, has to be thoroughly six thousand dollar, basically academic recitations. They had the first cd rom drives, which were slow avenues. The computers are, all but unusable, they were so slow, but there were beautiful, kiko. She just tenth tiny tangent to sheriff that the trois buttered up by twelve they're just so beautifully encapsulate Steve jobs idea, design, gauges, comment I now what you find interesting about jobs. What does but that view of the world that dogma

in the pursuit of perfection in how he saw profession. Design, yes I guess they say like look. He was a deep believer. I think, in a very deep way. I interpret it. I dunno, if you ever, really describe it like this by the way interpreted as if it's like it's like this thing and is especially a thing in philosophy. It's like aesthetics, are not just appearances. Aesthetics, go all the way to like deep underlining and underlying meaning right. It's like ooh, I'm not as this is one of things, I've heard physicists say is one of the things you start to get a sense of when a theory might be correct, is when it's beautiful right, like you know, they're right, and so so so there's something and if you feel the same thing by the way and like human psychology that right, you know when, when you're experiencing awe right, you know, there's like like there's a simplicity to it when, when you're, having an honest interaction with somebody, there's an aesthetic as a calm comes over you because you're actually being fully honest, didn't try to hide yourself for it, so that they're. So so it's like this very deep sense of aesthetics and he would trust their judgment. He had deep down like you, even the, even if the engineering teams are saying this is

this is too difficult, even if the wherever the finance folks are saying. This is ridiculous. the supply chain, all that kind of stuff missus bozzle. We can do this kind of material, This has never been done before I saw and so forth, aegis sticks by morning, who makes a fun out of aluminum written. Like me, nobody else, but it on that now, of course, if your phone is made out of limited, won't you know do have crude. What can a cave men? Would you have to be to have a phones, meda plastics like right so, like So it's just this very right and you know, look if it's there's a thousand different ways to look at those for one of the things is just like look. These things are central to your life, like you're, with your phone, more than are with anything else like it's in your it's going to be. In your hand, I mean he, you know this. He thought very deeply about what it meant for something to be in your handle What for example, he hears interesting. I think, like heap. He never wanted. It is my understanding, as he never wanted an iphone have a screen larger than you could reach with your thumb, one and so he was actually opposed to the idea of making a false larger. And if you have it

experience today, but let's say there are certain moments in your day when you might be, like only have one hand available, and you might want to be on your phone. If you're trying to like the technique, your thumb can't reach the but yeah, I mean there's pros and cons right and then there's like folding phones, which I would love to know what he thought he thinks about them. But there is there's something gross. link august he's one of the interesting figures in history of technology. What makes him one makes him a successful ass? He was what makes them is interesting, as he was how what made him so productive unimportant in now and in the development of that algae here, an integrated worldview so that the the the properly designed device that had the correct functionality that had the deepest understanding of the user. That was the most beautiful right like it. It had to be all of those thanks right it. It was he he basically would drive to as close to perfect as you could possibly get right, and I I you know, I suspect that he never quite thought he ever got there because, most

the creators are generally dissatisfied. You read accounts later on and all they can, all they can see. Are the flaws in the creation but like he got as close to perfect each step of the way as he could possibly get with the with the constraints of the of the of the technology of his time and then you know, look he was sort of famous in the apple model is like look they they they will. You know this this headset that they just came up with like it's like a decade, long project right, it's like in they're just going to sit there and tune and tune in polish polish and tune in polish and an abolish until it is as perfect as anybody could possibly make anything. And then this goes to that. The the way that people describe working with him was wishes you know there was a terrifying aspect of working with him wishes. You know he was. He was very tough, but there was this thing that everybody I've ever talked to. Who worked for him says that, as they all say, the following, which is he we did the best work of our. lives when we work for him because he set the bar incredibly high, and then he supported us with everything that he could to. Let us actually do work of equality.

And so that a lot of people who were out apples been risk their lives trying to find another experience where they feel like there. It will hit that quality bargain he, even if it in retrospect or doing it felt like suffering, do exactly what is it teach you about the human condition her so look is decisive So the silicon valley, I mean, look, he's not. You know, george patent in the you know in the army, like you know, there are many examples in other fields that are like this and ah ah, this is specifically an intact. It is actually I find it very interesting, there's the apple way, which is polish, polish, polish and don't ship until it's as perfect as you can make it and then there's the sword. The other approach, wishes this sort of incremental packer mentality, which basically says ship earlier often in it or it and one of them I find really interesting as stem now thirty years into this, like there are very successful companies on both sides of that approach, right it like vat as a fundamental.

difference right and how to operate and how to build and how to create that's. You have real class companies operating in both ways, and I don't think the question of like which is the superior model is anywhere close to me. I should like to end my suspicion is. The answer is due both to answer If you actually want both lead very different outcomes, software tends to do better with the aid of approach. Hardware tends to do better with me in a sort of weight and make a perfect approach, but then you can find examples in in both directions. You're still out on our back to his ex aware, it was tax base, TIM Berners lee why there was the web, which was tax base? there were no. I mean there was likes three websites. There was no content, there were no users like it wasn't like that. Wasn't like a catalytic. It happened,

by the way it was all just because it was all text there were. No documents are no images or videos. There were no right, so so it was, it was, and then, if, if in the beginning, if you had been a next cube, but you need had indexed next, both to publish and to consume, so so that there were six thousand bucks. You said there were limitations on six thousand dollar. Pc admitted that they did not suffer many but then there was also there's also ftp and there was use nets right and there was no a dozen other basically weathers ways which was an early search thing. There was gopher, It was an early menu based information retrieval system there. There were like a dozen different sort of scattered ways that people would get to information on on the internet, and so the the big idea was basically bring those altogether make the whole thing graphical. Make it easy to use, make it basically bullet so that anybody can do it and then again, just The luck side of it so happened that this was right at the moment when graphics, when the gooey sort of actually took off and where we are now also used to the gooey that we think it's been around forever. But it didn't really know the the macintosh brought it out in eighty five, but they actually didn't celebrate minimax in the eighties. It was

that successful of a product it really was went into industry point out on pcs and that yet in about ninety two and so on the most economic, two, maybe three, so that sort of it was like right at the moment when you could imagine actually having a graphical user interface to write at all much less one of the internet come the hull did. those three cell. So that was a really big. There was a big bang. The big operating graphical operating system was the classic arcade. Microsoft is operating on the other steve Steve, the apples running on the polish and tolls? Perfect, microsoft famously ran on the other model, which infinite array, and so in the old line in those days was microsoft or it's version three of every microsoft product. That's the that's the good one right, and so there there. Are you can you can find online windows? One windows do nobody use them Actually the original windows in the original microsoft windows. The windows were not overlapping, and so you have very small, very low resolution screens, and then you had literally does it just didn't work It was already at will and windows. Ninety five, I think, was a pretty big

Also there was mainly to so that was like bang, bang and then, of course, Steve amendment. in the fullness of time stickleback than the man. Or took off again. There was a third bang in an the iphone, was a fourth bank such saying time, and we are often after the races, Nobody could have known what would be created from the windows. Three point: on earth, three o window strip out of the iphone was only fifteen years right like it that ralph was in retrospect it at the time. I felt like it took forever, but that rich history in historical terms, like that, was a very fast ramp from even a graphical computer, at all on your desk to the iphone that was fifteen years. Since you did, you have a sense of what the That will be, as you look into the window mosaic like like what you like, they're, just a few pages for now so the thing I had early on was I was keeping at the time. What do these disputes over? What was the first but I had one of the middle east is a is a. Is a pass possible, MR runner, up in the competition, and it was what was called the what's new page?

and it was, It- was lorenzo, hardwired and distribution unfair advantage over. Where put aren't the browser I put it in the browser and then I put my resume in the browser yeah so was it was. It was hilarious, but oh fucked up, I was, I was keeping the not many people get to get to do that. So I'll know VI, The good call an early days just so interesting, I'm looking for my about about. Oh is job So so there was new page I early get up every morning, and I wouldn't every afternoon- and I would basically if you want to launch a website, you would email me and I would listed in the most new page in that was how people discovered the new websites as they were coming out and a member as it was, one, it literally went from one every couple days delay everyday things don't like to everyday verbal redemption

doing it so that that blog was kind of doing the directory thing. So like what was the home page, the one page was just basically trying to explain. Even what this thing is that you're looking at right, but basic, basically basic constructions, but then there was a button, there's a button and said what's new and what most people did was. They went to practice reasons went to what's new but like it, it was so. It was so mind blowing at that point, just the basic idea- and it was just this- was like you know. This is if the internet, but people can see it for the first time. The basic idea was: look, you know some, you know it's like literally. It's like an indian restaurant in, like bristol england has like put their menu on the web, and people were like. Loud low because, like us, the first restaurant menu on the web here- and I don't have it bristol and I'm ever to bristol- and I like indian food and like while right, and it was like that are the first web for streaming. Video thing was a was in england than some effort or something guy, puts his coffee pop up as the first streaming video thing, and he,

put it on the web because he literally is the coffee pot down the hall yeah and he wanted to see when he needed to go refill it. But there were. You know there was a point when there were thousands of people like watching that coffee pot, because it was the first thing you could watch What about the threat is? Are we able to kind of infer of that india restaurant gone my day will a clear with the hallway yeah exactly so. You felt that yeah yeah now look at still a stratford is still a stretch, because it's just like okay is that you know you're still in this zone, which is like er cases, Is this a real person that, by the way we do know there was a wall of skepticism from the media like they? Just like everybody was just like yeah. This is the craziest is just like bomb. This is not. This is not for regular people at that time average, and so you had to think through that and then look. It was still. It was still hard to get on the internet at that point right, so you could kind of this- we're bastardize version if you're on a well which wasn't really real or you had to go What a nice people has

in those days. Pcs, she didn't have tcp ip drivers. Company installed, so you had tcp ip driver was by a modem. You install driver software I have a comedy routine. I do twenty minutes long, describing all the steps required actually get on internet. Is that you? had at the other look through these practical and then and then speed performance in fourteen for modems right like it was like watching you no good right, I like, and so you had to you had to they were basically a sequence of best that we made where you basically needed to look through that current state of affairs and say actually there's going to be so much demand for that we'll figure this out. There's me so much demand for that. All of these practical problems are going to vexed ass. Some people say that anticipation, makes the the destination that much more exciting. Do you remember progressive drape eggs ye do? Why do I so forget for kids in the audience wrote for kids?

I have to wash an image load like a line at a time, but it turns out there is a single J package where you could you could load? Basically, every fourth, you could like every fourth line, and then you can cut you sweet baxter again, and so you can like render a fuzzy version image fraught and then it was like a resolve in the detailed one, and that was like a big you I breakthrough, because it gave something a watch yeah. and you know, there's applications in various domains for that it was a big fight, but there's a big fight early on about whether there should be images on the web and for that reason for that philosophical, no, not not not explicitly, that that did come up, but it wasn't even that it was more just like all the serious and for the argument. When the purists basically said all the serious information the world is taxed, If you introduce images, you you better going to bring in all the trivial stuff you're going to bring in magazines- and you know all this crazy I'll, just stuff that people you know she is going to distract from that. It's going to take ticket away from being serious, being frivolous was there any. I do my type arguments about

internet destroying all of human civilization or destroying some fundamental fabric of human civilization. Yes, those days it was all on crime and terrorism so the those arguments happened, and you know, but there was no sense yet of the internet having like an effect on politics or cause that was it was we took to prof, but there was an enormous panic at the time around cybercrime, there was like enormous panic that, like your credit card, number would get stolen and you use life savings to be drained, and then you know criminals were going to. There was oh and when we started one of the things we did with one of the the netscape browser was the first widely used piece of consumer software that had strong encryption built in I made it available to ordinary people and at that time, stronger corruption was actually illegal to export out of the? U s. So we could feel that product in the? U s, we could not export it because it was it was classified as a munition, though the netscape browser was on a restricted list. Along with a tomahawk missile.

as being something that cannot be exported. So we, let me have it make a second version with deliberately we can christian to sell overseas with a big log onto boxing. Do not trust us which it turns out, makes it hard to sell software. We gotta big logo. This has dont trust. And then we have spent five years fighting the us government to get them to basically stop trying to do. But the budget, because the fear, the fear was terrorists, are gonna, use encryption right to like plot. You know all these. Almost all these things are we responded with well? Actually, we need encryption to be able to secure systems of the terrorists, and criminals can get them so that with anyway, that was the night that with the nation, eddies So can you say something about some of the details of the software engineering challenges require to build these browsers the engineer challenges of creating a product that hasn't really existed before that can have she was like limit Some impact on the world with the internet, so there was a really keep that we made at the time, which is very controversial, which was korda korda, how it was

weird wish, was around missing for performance or for east of creation, and those days. The pressure was very intense optimized for performance, because the network connections were so slow and also the computers or so slow. And so, if you have mentioned the progressive drip acts like If if, if there is an alternate world in which we optimize for performance and it just, you had just a much more pleasant experience right up front, but what we got by not doing that was we got ease of creation, way that we got his creation was all of the protocols. Formats were in text, not in binary and so http is in texts by this doesn't internet tradition by the way that we picked up. But we continue to italy to be taxed and issue males text and in every other, everything else followed. Its text

as a result and by the way you can imagine purist engineer saying this is insane. You have very limited bandwidth. Why are you wasting any time sending text you should have coding the stuff in binary and it'll be much faster? Of course, the answer is that's correct, but what you get when you make it taxed is all of a sudden, while the big breakthrough was the view source function right. So the fact that you could look at a web page, you could hit view source and you could see the html that was how people learned how to make web pages right is so interesting is the stuff we take for granted. Now. Is there man that fundamental the development of the world to be able to have eased emerges right there get a mess that is html now serve almost biological like messengers, the waste to moan and having the browser try to interpret them,

as the data show something reasonable. While and then there was this internet principle that we inherited, which was emit. What was it emit cautiously? A met conservatively interpret liberally, so it basically meant if you're in the design principle was, if you're, if you're, creating like a web editor is going to admit html like do it as cleanly as you can, but you actually want the browser to interpret liberally wishes, you actually want users to be able to make all kinds mistakes and for it to still work The browser rendering address to this day. Have all of this get code crazy stuff, where they can there there resilient to all kinds of crazy issue: no mistakes, and literally what I always had. My head is like there's an eight year old or an eleven year old somewhere in there doing of your source are doing cut and paste and they're trying to make a webpage for their turtle or whatever and like they leave out a slash and they leave on an angle bracket. They do this, they do that and it still works. It's it is also get. I don't often think about the split. in a programming in surplus bicycles, both of those languages whisper,

Paul language, interpreter languages, python pearl all that they did the bracer to be all correct. Yet take everything. Has to be perfect, brutal and then just you forget. alright, it's systematic and rigorous as go there, but you forget the tea, the web javascript eventually and a gmail is allowed to be messy in the way. For the first time messy in the way, biological systems could be missed. It is like the only thing computers were allowed to be messy on for the first time it used to offend me. So I I grew up in unit as I I unix, I was a eunuch native heard all the way through this period, and so in it used to drive me bananas when it would do the dissemination fault in the court on file. Just like what is in us, like literally there's like an error, the code, the math is off by one in accordance in amerika.

I'm trying to analyze it and trying to reconstruct with- and I'm just like. This is ridiculous, like the computer ought to be smart enough to be able to know that if it's off by one okay, fine and it keeps running- and I would ask all the experts like. Why can't it just keep running and that explain to me will, because all the downstream repercussions and blah blah and I'm like the still like witnesses, if we're forcing the human creator to live to your point in this hyper little literal world of perfection. just like it s, a duchess. Dutch is bad and by the way, what happens is that, of course, is what would happen with coating at that point? Wishes you gotta high priesthood. In others, a small number of people who are really good at doing exactly that. Most people can't and most people are excluded from it, I should add that was where that four years, where I picked up, that idea was was like not now you want you want, you want these things to be resilient error in all kinds, and this this will drive the purest excellent crazy. Like I got attack on this a lot costly I mean like every time I you know all the tourists who are like and all this like markup language, stuff and formats and codes the eldest often and would be like if you count your you're, encouraging their behaviour cost us a they wanted,

browser to give you in a sack, fought error ain time. Those was a julia, they wanted to be a right. They wanted that. That was a very and any any play any properly trained. A traditional engineer like that's not how you build this is such a bold move to say now that doesn't have to be now what s? The good news for me is the internet can ahead that traditional ready, but we, but having said that, like we pushed it, we pushed, but everything we are going back to the performance thing was. We did a lot of performance. We meant that the initial experience for the first three years is pretty painful, but but that there was actually economic bat which was basically the demand for the web, would basically mean there will be a surgeon supply of broadband weakened gets, the question is how do you get? How do you? How do you get the phone companies which are not famous in those days for doing new things and huge cost for livestock? of reasons like how do you get to build up broadband extent? wings of dollars. Doing that, and you know you could go meet with them or try to talk them into it, or you could just have a thing where it's just very clear is going to be the that people love that's going to be better if it's faster and so that that

there. There is a period there, and this was this is fraught with imperil, but there was a period there was like. We knew the experience us about mice, because we were trying to force the emergence of demand for broadband, which has in fact what happened. So you, the figure had a display. This text, html text for the buildings and purple Things were innocent or standards is their standards that time Eurostat was. The water, ass acres behind those applied implies a town, his right and they all his cousin. You features are being out of lakes. Here says what like, what kind of opera browser should be able to support. It features, will the languages within javascript and so on, but you? U bay, eared, setting standards on the fly yourself yeah. Well, I think, to this day, if you, if you create a web page, that has no siesta style sheet, the browser will render at harvard wants to rights, and this was one of them.

things that there is. This idea is idea if the timing and how these systems were about which a separation of farm content from former separation of ya content from appearance and that's If people don't really use that any more because everybody wants to determine how things look, and so they use css, but it's still in there that you can just let the browser do all the work. I still like the like a really basic websites, but that could be just old school kids these days with their fancy responsive websites that don't actually which content but have a lot of visual elements for that's. What do you think? That's funny about chat, budget bt, deathlike back to the basics after just tax, alright and it. You know that there is this pattern in human creativity and media where you end up back at text, and I think there's you know, there's something powerful, and there is this is that your member, like the purple, links the recent incident design decisions. It cannot come up that out have today- or we don't have today- have temporary,

we made I made the background. I hated reading text on white background. So so I made the background gray everybody can we regret? Not you glad to know Now I did ask for that decision. I think has been reversed button it. But now I'm happy, though, because now dark modus, the thanks so wasn't about graves. Just didn't want away back backer, Austria, my eyes, change, interesting and then there's a bunch of other decisions. I'm sure, there's an interesting history, the dwell innovation emails, he assassin, hollows and interface and joy. I described it as images. Is this whole java applet thing when the frequent probably javascript css was after me, so I didn't it was not me, but javascript was the big javascript. Maybe was the biggest of the whole thing that was us and and that was basically a bats is about on two things. One is that the world one, the new friend scripting language, and then the other was the red, the thought at the time the world one of the new back inscription language, so javascript was sign from the beginning to be both front and back, and then it fails.

I can scripting language and java one for a long time and then python, pearl and other things php, ruby, but now javascript is back, and so I wonder, Everything in the end will run on javascript. It did see, it seems like is the amendment. We only have a shoutout do out to abrogate ike was the opposite. One man, inventor of javascript, instead to learn more about burden as previously exactly so he wrote javascript over a summer and it it I mean. I think it is fair. It is fair to say now that it's the most widely used language in the world and it seems to only beginning and end in itself in its range, but in the software world there's quite a few stories. If somebody over weekend over a week over a summer right, in some of the most for revolutionary piece of software ever holiday,

This should be inspiring, is very inspiring I'll, give another one ssl. So as we saw with the security protocol, that was us, and that was a crazy idea at the time which was, let's take all the native protocols unless wrap them in a security wrapper. That was again him keep hickman, who wrote that over a summer, one guy and then look at today's sitting here to daily transformer like a google is a small handful of people, and then you know the number of people who live did like the core work on jpg. It's not that many people, the pretty small handful of people and gathered the pattern in software repeatedly over a very long it has bandits, it's a jeff, Jeff Bezos always have the two pizza rule for teams at amazon, which is any team, needs to be able to be fed with two pieces. If you need the third pizza, you have too many people, and I think that's, I think, that's I think it's actually, the one pizza rule yeah for the for the really creative work. I think it's two people, three people well, that you see those certain open source projects.

So much is done by one or two people, as is so incredibly. That's why you see that gives me so much hope about the open source. whether this new age, my eye Where on yours, recent, having had a conversation with thought mark Zuckerberg, our people, whose all in an open source, which is we just need to see and so aspiring to see Because I like releasing these models, it is scary. It is potentially very dangerous and we'll talk about that, but it's also if you believe in the goodness of most people and skill set on most people and the desire to go do good in the world has really exciting, because if not putting these models into the central s, control of big corporations, governments eyes putting it in the hands of a team. Teenage kid was like a dream and his eyes. I saw my beautiful vista,

I ought to make the individual kotor. Obviously, farmer, productive right by like a thousand x or something, and so you ought to be open source like the not just the future of open source air, but the future of open source. Everything we ought to have a world now have super coders right who are building things as open source with one or two people that were inconceivable. You know five years ago, you know the level of kind of hyper productivity. We're going to get out of our best and brightest ethic is going to go way up. His commissioning little talk about it, but just the lingo labourer netscape netscape was acquired in eighteen, ninety nine for peace three billion by air. While I was there was that I was the war is a memorable aspects that why was that of the dot com boom bubble burst I mean that was the that was the frenzy. If you watch a succession that was the that was like what they did in the fourth season, with arthur with gojo and the merger with the with there is, though he was like the height of like one of those kind of dynamics, and so you recognized the succession by

moreover, yellowstone guy yellowstone, very american, I am very proud of you, that's all I just talked imagine mccartney and I'm full on tax, and at this point I heartily proof and you will be doing, a sequel to the yellow, very exciting anyway. That's route interruption by me now by Way of secession, ah so those at the height. Of the deal making and money, and just the for flying and like craziness and so yeah. It was just one of those it was just like I mean, and as the entire netscape thing from start to finish was four years at which was like for for one of these companies just like incredibly fast it went, we went public eighteen months after he got miffed. We were founded it never happens. So it was just this incredibly fast kind of meteors streaking across the sky and then of course it was this, and then there was just this explosion right. That happened because then it was almost immediately followed by the dot com crash.

It was then followed by her wealth buying time warner, which again is sick. This accession going to play with that which turned out to be a disastrous. no one of the famous in a kind of disastrous and business history, and then- and then you know what became of depression on either side of that. But then, in that depression and the two thousands was the beginning of broadband and smartphones and web two point right and then social, media and search and never its ass in everything that came out of that. So what did you love her? Yes, the acquisition in this is so much money. Was it we weren't what's interesting, because it must have been very new to you that he softwares stuff you didn't makes Much money does so much money. I mean it. I'm sure the ideas of investment will start to get born there yet The seller me lately so lay here's acres, here's the thing I ever heard of them. It figured out later witches software is a technology that is like in other countries of the philosopher's stone

the philosopher's stone in alchemy, transmute lead the golden newton spent twenty years. Trying to find the philosopher's stone, never got their nobody's ever figured it out. Where is our motto philosopher's, stone and in economic terms, firms, transmits labour and capital, which is a super interesting thing and by the way, like Karl Marx's rolling over in his grave right now cause, of course, that's complete reputation of his entire theory, trespass labor and capital, which is which is as follows. Is somebody sits down at a keyboard and types? A bunch of stuff Anna capital ass, it comes out the other side, and then somebody buys that capital s at four billion dollars, like that's amazing right, is literally creating value right out of thin air out of purely human thought right, and so that that that's that there are many things that make this offer magical in special, but that the economics, I wonder what marx would have thought about that, but we would have completely broke his brain because of course, the whole. The whole thing was he was he could eat he. You know that kind of technology is inconceivable when he was alive. It was on mutes, all industrial era stuff

That any kind of machinery necessarily involves you. It's the capital and the labour was on the on the receiving end of abuse. Yet far right, but like suffer and suffer a software engineer or somebody who's. the way he transmits his own labour into actual national capital asset and creates permanent value. In fact, it's it's actually very inspiring. That's actually more true today than before. So when, when I was doing software, the assumption was all new software basically has a sort of a parabolic sort of life cycle right. So you you ship. The thing if people buy it at some point, everybody who wants it has bought it and then it becomes obsolete. And then it's like bananas. Nobody, nobody buys all tougher these days and minecraft mathematica. You know facebook, Google and you have these offer assets that are, you know, have been around for thirty years that are gaining evaluate rear, read in there just there being a world of warcraft rights elsewhere stuck com.

There being at every single year there being polish and polishing polish and polish they're getting better and better more powerful, more powerful, more valuable, more valuable. So it we ve entered this era where you can actually have these things that actually build out over decades, which, by the way, was happening right now with lgbt enzo now and then- and this is why, in other there there is always a sort of a constant investment friendly run softwares, because you know look when you start one of these things. It does not succeed, but when it does now, you might be building an asset that bills value for four five six decades to come. You know, if you have a team of people who have the level of devotion require too to make it better, then the fact that every course everybody's online you know, there's five billion people that are a click away from any new piece of software, so the potential market size for any of these things is nearly infinite. They must have been surreal back then, the yea that this was all brand new right. Yet, but back then this was all brand new. These were all brand new. It had you rolled out that theory and even nineteen. Ninety nine people would have thought you were smoking crack so that that's that's emerged over time. Well

Sir now turn back into the future. You wrote there s a why I will save the world. They start. The very high level what made this is of the essence. So the main thesis on the usa is that what we're dealing with here is intelligence and it's really important to kind of talk about the sort of very nature what intelligence is, and fortunately we have, if we have a predecessor to machine intelligence which is human intelligence and we ve got. You know, observations and theories over thousands of years for what we want and tells us is in the hands of a few months and in what intelligence is right. I want it when it literally, as is the way to capture process analyze. Synthesize information solve problems, but the observation None of us of intelligence in human hands is that intelligence quite literally makes everything better and what I mean by that is every kind of outcome of flight, human quality of life, whether its education outcomes or success of your children or a career, success or health

or lifetime satisfaction by the way, prepare propensity to peaceful, as opposed to violence, propensity for open mindedness versus bigotry. Those are all associated with higher levels of intelligence, Marty. People have better outcomes in almost as you write in order. We demand of activity, academic, achievement, job performers, occupational status, income, creativity, physical health, longevity learning, new skills, managing complex tasks, leadership, entrepreneurial success, conflict resolution, reading, com, henchmen financial decision, making, understanding others perspective, creative arts, parenting outcomes and life satisfaction, one of them more depressing conversation. I've, had an owner wise. The press have to really think the wise depressing, but on I q, and are the key factor and that that something in large part genetic.

And its correlate so much with all of these things and success in life. I think all the gracious to read about like if you work hard and so on, damage you're, born with the hand that you can't change. But what have you got? Your same? Basically I really important point. I think it's up in your in your articles, what it really helped me do it it's a nice added perspective to think about was inhuman intelligence. The signs of intelligence has shown scientifically that it just makes life easier and better the smarter you are, and now let's look at artificial intelligence and if

That's a way to increase the the the some human intelligence. Then I it's only going to make a better life. Yet this argument, and certainly at the collective lot. We could talk about the collective effect of just having more intelligence in the world which which, which will have very big payoff, but there's also just at the individual level like what. If every person has a machine, you know and the concept of augment doug, engelbart concept of augmentation and what, if everybody has a an assistant, an assistant is you know a hundred and forty iq an you happen to be one hundred and ten you and you ve got you know something that basically is infinitely patient and knows everything about you and is pulling for you possible way wants you to be successful. anytime, you find anything confusing or want to learn anything. I have trouble understanding something or want to figure out what to do in a situation right when to figure out how to prepare job interview like any of these things like it, will help you do it and it will?

before that, the combination will effectively be effectively raise your race because it will eventually raise racheal, therefore raise the odds of a successful life outcomes in all these areas that people below the this hypothetical one hundred and forty eight q ill pull them off was one hundred and forty sq yeah yeah, and then, of course, you know, people at people at one hundred and forty ikea will be able to have a pure right to be able to communicate, which is great and then people above one hundred and forty ecu will have an assistance if they confirm things out too, and then look god willing. You know at some point. These things go from future versions go from one hundred and forty accu equivalent to one hundred fifty one hundred and sixty to one hundred and eighty. right, like einstein, was that nest estimated to be on the order of one sixty b and also when we get you know when sixty day I like will be job, went, one assumes creating einstein, level breakthroughs in physics, and and then one eighty will be. You know during

answer and developing warp drive and doing all kinds of stuff, and so it is quite possibly the case. This is the most important thing. That's ever happened the best things ever happen, because, precisely because it's a lever on this single fundamental factor of intelligence, which is the thing that drive so much of everything else,. Can you still man the case- that human plus ai is not always better than human for the individual. You may have noticed that there's a lot of smart assholes running around yes, it right and so like a smart, and that there are certain people where they get smarter. You know they're they're gonna get to be more arrogant right so that they are. There is one huge law, though, to push back that it might be interesting, because when the intelligence is not all from you buy from assist from another system that my actually increase the then of humility even in the assholes one, would hope or could make assholes more. Yeah. That's I mean that's. That's psychology to study

another one is the smart. People are very convinced that they, you know, have a more rational view of the world and that they have an easier time, seeing through conspiracy theories and hoaxes and read, you know, sort of crazy beliefs and all that there there's a theory in psychology which is actually smart people so for sure people who aren't as smart or very susceptible to conspiracy theories, but it may also be the case that this murder, you get, you become susceptible in a different way, which has become very, good at marshalling facts to fit the preconceptions right. You become very, very good at assembling whatever theories and frameworks and pieces of data and grass and charge you need to validate whatever crazy I've got in your head and so your susceptible in a different way. right, we're all sheep but different colored. She some sheep, are better at justifying it right and those are the those are the smart shape right,

So yeah looked like it then I would say that look like there are no panacea. I'm not I'm not a utopian. There are no panaceas life. There are no, like you know, Peter. I don't believe it really. Your positives, amanda transcendental. Can a person like that, but you are so yeah gonna, be issues and it looks more people know that, maybe you could save us more people, as they are more likely to get themselves in situations that are beyond their grasp. You know, because they're just more confident that their ability to deal with the complexity in their their eyes become bigger than their cognitive eyes become bigger than their It is as yet you can argue those eight different ways. Nevertheless, on that Clearly, overwhelmingly again, if you just extrapolate from what we know about human intelligence, your ear, improving, so many aspects of life, if your operating intelligence so they'll be assistance at all stages of life, so in your younger this for you asian or that cast off from mentorship all of this, later on.

You don't work and you've developed a skill and you're having a profession. You'll have an assistant that helps you excel that profession, so at all stages of life yeah I mean look at the theories augmentations. This is the deagle birch term for the dangle bert made this observation many many decades ago that, basically it's like you can have this opposition frame of technology. Words like us versus the machines, but what you really do as you use technology to augment human capabilities in any event away. That's how actually the economy develops that's up at the economic side of this, but that that's actually how the economy grows is through through technology augmenting human human potential. and so yeah, and then you you basically have a proxy or you Nora, em. You know us our prosthetic arm, you know so, like you, ve got glasses, you ve, gotta wristwatch. You know you ve got shoes, you, you know you ve got these things. Got a personal computer. You ve gotta, we're processor, you ve got mathematical, you ve got Google. This is the later viewed through that last day eyes? The latest, in a long series of basically augmentation methods to build a race human capabilities.

This one is the most powerful one of all, because this is the one that goes directly to, but what they call fluid intelligence, which is like you. Well, there's two categories of The yacht outline dead the worry about or highlight the risks of ai, and you highlight a bunch of different risks: I'd love to go through those risks and just discussed them brainstorm which ones are serious and which ones are less serious. But first, though the baptists and bootleggers, what are these interesting cooks, folks who are who who worry about the effect of alchemists civilization force even said, is it okay? If, yes, I said the baptists worry, the bootleggers say to do, and so the baptists the bootleggers ass, a metaphor for economics from a skull development economic, since this observation that when you get social reform movements in us city you tend to get two sets of people showing up arguing for the social reform in that

the term bout baptism. Bootleggers comes from the american experience with alcohol prohibition, and so nineteen hundred nineteen tens, there was this movement. That was a very passionate at the time which basically said alcohol is the evil and is destroying society by There was a lot of evidence to support this. There was very high rates of very high correlation. then, by the way and now, between race of physical violence and alcohol use, almost all violent crimes, have either the perpetrator or the victim or both drunk Almost all of you see this actually work in almost all sexual harassment cases in the workplace. It's like a company party and somebody's drunk like It's amazing how often aka hall actually correlates to actually just dysfunction these do domestic abuse and so forth, child abuse, and so you had this group of people who were like ok this. This is bad stuff and we shall lot and in those were quite literally baptists. Those were super committed in a hard core christian activists in

cases. There was a woman whose name was carrie nation. Who was this older woman who had been in this? You on a disastrous marriage or something and her husband had been abusive and drunk all the time, and she became the icon of the baptist, prohibitionist She was legendary in that era, for carrying an axe and doing it'll completely on her own, doing raids of saloons and like taking her act, all the bottles and six iraq and- and so so, a true believer and absolute true believer and with absolutely the purest of intentions and again, there's a very important thing here. It which is there's you could look at this cynically and you could say the baptists are like delusional. You know extremists, but you could also say look they're right like she would meet. You know she had a point like she wasn't wrong.

What a lot of what she said yet, but it turns out the way the story goes. Is it turns out that there were another set of people who very badly wanted to outlaw alcohol in those days, and those were the bootleggers which was organized crime that stood to make a huge amount of money if legal alcohol sales were banned, and this was in fact his way. History goes as this was actually the beginning of organized crime in the us. This was the big economic opportunity that opened that up. And so they went in together and they didn't go in together, like the baptists did not even necessarily know about the bootleggers because they run the moral crusade. The bootlegger certainly knew about the baptists and they were like wow. This is these people are like the great front people for like deck kabir shenanigans in the in the background the year, and they got the full stack past right and they did in fact ban alcohol in the. U s and you'll notice. What happened wishes people kept drinking like it, didn't work, people kept drinking and that bootleggers made a tremendous amount of money and then over time it became clear

that it made no sense to make an illegal and it was causing more problems, and so then it was revoked, and here we set with legal us all a hundred years later, with all the same problems, and that you know the whole thing was this: like giant misadventure, the baptist got taken advantage of by the bootleggers in the bootleggers got what they wanted, and that was that the same. Two categories of folks are now sort of suggesting that a development of artificial intelligence should be regulated hundred percent. Yet the same pattern in other liberal economists plays the same pattern. Every time like this is what happened in nuclear power. This is what happened, which is another interesting one but like yeah. This is this happens, dozens and dozens of times throughout the last hundred years, and and and this happening now, and you write that it is insufficient to simply identify the actors and impunity motors we should consider the arguments of both the baptist and bootleggers on their merits says does just that risk number one will a. I kill us all so

What would you think about this one this this? What? What do you think is the core argument here that the development of asia. I perhaps, but I said, will destroy. He was civilization. No, first of all you just at a sleight of hand, goes we went from talking about aid to asia. Is there a fundamental difference there? I don't know what a joy ized what's air What's going on, I advised machine learning. What's with asia, You don't know what the bottom of the well machine learning is over. The ceiling is because just call something machine learning just to call some statistics suggest a cot. Math computation doesn't mean Well, nuclear weapons are just physics, so it is to me is very interesting and surprising how far machine learning has no, but we knew that nuclear physics would lead weapons. That's why the scientists of that era were always ends up this useless.

Building the weapons. This is different ages, different as machine learning. We do. We know we don't know, but my point is different. We we actually don't know, but- and this is where you, the sleight of hand kicks in this- is where it goes from being a scientific topic to being a religious topic, and that's what that's why I specifically called out that that, because that's what happens, they do the vocabulary shift all of a sudden you're talking about something totally. That's not actually real within. Maybe you could also- as part of that define the western tradition of millennia, realism just end of the world apocalypse about the apocalypse cults, buckles calls was up, we live in. If we, of course, live in a judeo christian, but primarily christian kind of saturated, you know kind of christian, post, christian secular as christian- you know kind of world in the west and, of course, quarter christianity as the idea of the second coming and interrupt new revelations- and you know Jesus returning and through the thousand year, you know utopia on earth and then the

and like all other stuff, you know we don't we are we collectively in our society? We don't necessarily take it very seriously now, so what we do is we create our secularist versions of that we keep. We keep looking for utopia, we keep looking for you know. Basically, the end of the world and so what you see over over decades is busy a pattern of these sort of service of his cup of coffee. Isn't this this? What culture? This is our courts? as they form around some theory, the end of the world, and so the people's temple called the manson called. The Heavens, Kate called the David crash

call it what they're all organized around it's like. There's going to be this thing, that's going to happen, it's going to basically bring civilization crashing down, and then we have this special elite group of people who are going to see it coming and prepare for it, and then there are the people who are either going to stop it or failing stopping it, they're going to be people who survived the other side and ultimately get credit for having been right. Why is this a compelling? Do you think, like a because it satisfies this very deep need we have for transcendence and meaning that got stripped away when we became secular, but what was a transcendence involve the destruction of human civilization because, like how like how plausible, it's it's like a very deep psychological. Thank us, like a plausible. How plausible answer that we live in a world where everything just kind of our it right? How do you know? What will? How exciting is that right with us that we must ensure the man who is with us do question I'm asking: why is it not having to live in a world where they should die, I think in a most

animal kingdom would be so happy with just arise because I mean survival, Why we, maybe that's what it is. We wait, conjuring up things to worry about so cs lewis called it. The god shaped hole. so there's a guy shaped hole in the human experience consciousness. Or whatever you call it. Where there's gotta be something that's bigger than all this there's gotta be something transcendence maybe something that is bigger, right, bigger, bigger purpose, a bigger meaning, so we have run the experiment of you know we're just going to use science and rationality and kind of you know everything's, just gonna gotta, be as it appears, and a large number of people have found that very deeply wanting and have constructed narratives and by the history of the twentieth century right. Communism right was one of those that communism was a was a form of this nazis and was affirmed this. You know some people, you can see movements like this playing out all over well right now, so you could start gonna devil a kind of source of evil and we're going to transcend beyond it. Yeah

and though the moment millinery and good work, the millions kind of, but that we see a milliner caught? They put a really specific point on it, which is under the world right there, there is some change coming in that chair, Just coming is so profound and so important that is either gonna leader, utopia or hell on earth right, and it is going to- and then you know it's like what, if you actually knew that that was going to happen right would you what what would you do right? How would you prepare yourself or powers? You come together with a group of like minded people. wait, how would you what would you do? Would you plan like caches of weapons in the woods? Would you, like you know I dunno, let's create under underground bunkers, which you you know, spend your life trying to figure out a way to avoid having it happen. Yeah, that's a really compelling exciting idea to to have a club over to have a touch of it devil a bit have travelled, could get together on Saturday night and drink some beers and talk about the the end of the world How are you you are the only ones who have figured out,

once you lock in on that like? How can you do anything else with your life like? This is obviously the thing that you have to do and that and then there's a psychological effect. You alluded to there's a psychological factor. If you take a set of true believers and you leave them to themselves, they get more radical because they self radicalize each other. That said that it doesn't mean they're not sometimes right there at the end of the row might be just correct what they might be right, yeah, but like we have some pamphlets for you, that is there's any we'll talk on nuclear weapons, because you have a really interesting little moment that I learned about in your essay. But you know sometimes it could be right. His were listed, It would have been more and more powerful technologies in his we don't know what the impact it will have on humans, innovation, while they are the different predictions about how will be positive, but the risks are there and discuss them. For this. deal man still, man is the steel metal, actually, the still man in his reputation of the same, which is where you can predict. What's gonna happen right, you right now

you can't rule out that this will not end everything right, but the response that is, you have just made a completely non scientific claim, yeah you've made a religious claim, not a scientific claim, their houses get disproven. There is- and there is no by definition with these kinds of claims, there is no way to disprove them right and, so there there's. No, it is correct unless there's no hypothesis, there's no tested many of the hypothesis there's no wait, a falsified, a hypothesis no way to measure progress along the ark like it's just completely missing, and so is not so epic, I don't, I don't think is completely missing. It's it's somewhat missing. So, for example, the the the the people that say as gonna kill all of us. any they usually have ideas about how to do that without the people got maximize her or on you noticed escapes mechanism by which you can imagine it, killing all humans models and to do you can dispute By saying there is There is a limit to

the speed at which intelligence increases may be show that, are they the sort of rigorously really described model like how it could happen and said? No, the hears of physics limitation as a physical limitation Oh how these systems would actually do damage him sensation, and it is possible, it will kill, tended percent of the population, but it seems impossible for them to kill. Ninety nine percent is practical, counter arguments, but saw you mention. Basically, what I described was the thermodynamic counter argument, which is sitting here today, it's like where we're the evil eg I get to refuse yet cause like they don't exist. So you're going to have a very frustrated baby, evil eg. I could be like trying to buy nvidia stock or something to get them to. Finally,

except that right, so that David, the serious former that as the thermodynamic argument, which was like okay where's, the energy going to come from where's the process going to be running, whereas the data center gonna be happening. How is this going to be happening in secret, such that you know, as you know, so so that's a practical counter argument to the runaway eg. I think I have a but I have had, and we can argue that discuss that. I have, I have a deeper objection to it, which is it's. This is all forecasting. It's all modeling, it's all! It's all future prediction: it's all future hypothesizing, science im sure it is not is it is, it is, is the opposite of science, so that a pull up carl sagan extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof right. These are extraordinary claims, the policies that are being called for right to prevent this are of extraordinary magnitude that and I think, we're going to cost turner damage- and this is all being done on the basis of something that is literally not scientific- it's not a testable hypothesis

I mean you say as going to kill all of us. Therefore we should banner toward then who should regulate all the cost? That's when it starts getting serious or sturt. You know military airstrikes on data centers, oh boy, right and like us, when was gets starts the stars. Guerrilla here's the probability in courts. They have a hard time staying away from violence, hippo violence, so funny if you are on the right end of it, they have a hard time of browse the the I have a telephone imbalances if you actually believe the claim right than what would you do to stop the end of the world? Will you would do anything right and, so, and this is where you get it, you get. If you just look at the history of of of millenarian cults. This is where you get the people's temple, everybody killing themselves in the jungle, and this is where you get Charles Manson and you know setting in me to kill, kill the pigs like this is the problem with these they have a very hard times are on the line at actual violence, and I think I think in this case there.

If they're, I mean they're already calling for it like today, and you know where this goes from here as they get more worked up, like I, I think is like really concerning okay, but that's kind of the extremes, The extremes of anything out those concerning did is also What kind of believe that ai has a very high likelihood of killing all of us, but there's it, and therefore we should maybe consider us slowing development or regulating so not violence or any of these kinds of things, but saying like let's take a pause here in all your biological weapons, nuclear weapons, a good war, this is like serious stuff. We should be careful, though, that it is possible I have a more rational response rate. If you believe this risk is real, believe yes, so what is it possible to beat? Have a scientific approach to the the the prediction of the future I mean we just went through recovered

what modeling? Well I mean, what did we learn about modeling with covert? Ah there's a lot of lessons didn't work at all. They worked poorly. The models were terrible models were useless, I don't have the models were uses or the people interpreting the models and then decentralized institutions. There were creating policy, rapidly basin models and low, urging the models in order to support their narratives versus actually incurred putting the air bars and the bottles and all that kind of stuff. You had a coat. My view had recovered his you have these experts showing up on the climate, scientists, and they had no testable hypotheses whatsoever. They had a bunch of models a bunch of forecasts and a bunch of theories, and they lay these out in front of policymakers and policymakers. Freetown, panicked, rent and implement whole bunch of like really like terrible decisions that were still living with the consequences of

and there was never any empirical foundation to any of the models. None of them ever came true, yet to push to push back. There were certainly baptists and bootleggers in this in the context of this pandemic, but they're still a usefulness to models, though, So, not if they're, not me, not if the reliable iran right than there actually like anti useful, rather actually damaging, What would you do with a pandemic? Would he do with a with a with any kind of threat? Don't you want to come to have several models to play with. As part of that, discussion of like what the hell do. You do here mean. Do they work an expectation that they actually like work that they have actual predictive value. I mean, as far as I can tell with covered, which, aside the policymakers just tie up themselves into believing that there was substance. Looked at the scientists, the scientists were at fault, as the quote unquote. Scientist showed up. Is that. So I have some insight into this. So there there was a er. Remember the imperial college models out of london were the ones that were like these are the gold standard models yeah, so a friend of mine runs a big software company and he was like wow. This is like cough, it's really scary and he's like you know he contacted this research and is like you know, do you

some help. You've been just building a smile on your own for twenty years. Genius included, give like us our coaters to basically restructure it, so it can be fully adapted for covert and the guy said yes and sent over the code, and my friend said it was like the worst spaghetti code he's ever seen. That doesn't mean it's not possible to construct a good model of pandemic with the correct air bars with a high number of parameters that are continuously many times a day, updated as we get more data about a pandemic. I would like to believe when a pandemic hits the world the best computer scientists in the world, the bus software engineers respond aggressively and as input take, the data we know about the viruses and output. Say here is here's was happening in terms of how quickly spreading what their lead? there was a hospitalization and death, another kind of stuff, here's how likely? How can take the likely is here's. How deadly likely is based on different conditions based on different ages and demographics, another cost of so here's the both kinds of policy it

feels like you could have models, machine learning that, like kind of they don't perfectly predict the future per day, the they help you do something cause, there's pandemics that are like, ah mer. They don't really do which harm and there's pandemics you can imagine them. They could do a huge amount of harm. I didn't kill a lot of people, so you should probably have some kind of data driven models? They keep updating that allow you to make decisions, a basic where how bad is this Now you can criticize how horrible all that went with a response of this pandemic, but I just feel like there might be some value to models so it to be useful at some point, proactive right so and so, and so the easy for me to do is to say obviously right. Obviously I want to see that just as much as you do anything that makes it easier to navigate through society through wrenching risk like that is any others. That's great. You know that

that the harder objection to it is just simply, you are trying to model a complex, dynamic system with eight billion moving parts like not possible, data can be done. Complex systems can be done, machine learning it s called my dear, but well is possible. Now I don't know, I would like to believe that it is now Well put it this way, I think where you and I would agree as I think we would like we would we'd like that to be the case. We are strongly in favor of it. I think we would also agree that no such thing with respect to covert or pen no such thing, but at least neither you nor, I think ever where I am not aware of anything like that today my main worry withers positive pandemic. Is there same as with aliens. Is that even if such a thing existed and is possible, it existed. The the the policymakers were not paying attention like there is no mechanism that allowed those kinds of models to percolate. Oh, I think we have the opposite problem during covert. I think the policymakers, I think, the the these these these, these people, with basically fake science, had too much access to the policymakers were right in

but the policymakers also wanted that an of a mind, and I also wanted to use what a model that fit that national sugar to help them also like a frolic there's a lot of politics and men of science. Although big part of what was happening a bit more rigorous and we got lockdown for as long as we're dead was because you scientists came in with these like them. Stay scenarios that were like just like completely off the hook. Scientists and quotes- that's not cook cortical Let us not forget that give lots your science. That is the way out. Science is a process of testing hypotheses modeling does not involve testable hypotheses right, like I do you know that my I should only I don't, I don't even know the modeling. She qualifies the science. Maybe that's a beside conversation. We can have some time ear to ear really interesting. But what do we do about the future of you? What what so number one is when we start with number one. Humility goes back to this thing of. How do we determine the truth, do as we don't believe you know the old I've got a hammer. Everything looks like a nail right, I've got a job like this. One of the reasons I gave you gave up like a book which is the topic of the book, is what happens when scientists basically stray off the path.

Of technical knowledge to start away on politics and societal issues. Case philosophers toolbars lhasa first, but he here she talks in this book about, like einstein, intoxication about the nuclear age, NI stein, just what the physicists actually I'm doing during a very similar things at the time of the book, as one reason goes on holiday philosophers in politics by and this is a story. It's a story! This there are other books on this topic with this. Is that no one is really go. There's just a story of what happens when experts in a certain domain beside away on and become basically social engineers and up and up little, you know basically political advisers. Just a story of just another catastrophe right and I think that's what happened covert again in his book a highly entertaining and I opened you read- filled with amazing outing, dose of rationality and craziness by famous risa philosophers every refugee this, but you will not. What can I say so our boy destroy my heels, will not be a year of yours. Anyone sorry, you from you shouldn't, read the book now, but

the thing. The aid, the air I risk, people didn't even have the covered. While this is not the time or of now like there's? Not even the coffin of the governmental didn't even have a spaghetti code. They got hurry and of a warning, and of this is that, unlike of u s, like, okay, here's here's the I mean the ultimate examples. Okay, how do we know right? How do we know that and as running away like? How do we know that the film takeoff thing is actually happening? and the only answer that any of these guys have given that I've ever seen is oh, is when the last raw rate, the last function in the in the training drops right. That's when you need to shut up data centre right and it's like will thus also what happens when you successfully training a model like what he would. Even if this is not science, this is not something that is not a model is not anything there's. Nothing to argue that is like me, are pushing jello like their theirs, but even respond sedgy put pushed back on that. I don't think they have

Good metrics of it, yeah wonderful, was happening, but I think it's possible to have that like I just just as as you speak, nami is possible to imagine that could be measures been twenty years know for sure, but it has been only weeks since we had a big enough breakthrough in language models. We can startech actually have the thing is the way I do more stuff didn't. Have any actual system really work with a now there's real systems. You could start out as I caught as this stuff go wrong and I beg you kind of I agree that there is a lot of risks. They'll get allies. The benefits outweigh the risks in many cases, but the rest are not essential. Yes will not have it now, not enough not on the phone paperclip, not this! Oh, let me ok, there's another sleight of hand that you just alluded to. It was another sleight of hand. That happened, which is mary thing, I'm very good at the slight of hand, thing which is very scientific, so the book superintelligence right, just like the nick Bostrom Spock, which is like the origin of a lot of stuff which was written in or whatever ten years ago or something so he does Israel fast anything in the book, which is basically says

There are many possible routes to machine intelligence. Artificial intelligence and he describes all the different routes to artificial intelligence, all the different boss, but everything from biological augmentation through the europe that in all these different things one of the ones that he does not describe MS large language models, because, of course the book was written before they were invented, and so they didn't exist, in the book he does, he describes them all and then he proceeds to treat them all as if they're exactly the same thing, he presents them all as sort of an equivalent rest to be dealt with in an equivalent way to be talking about the same way and then that risk the quote unquote risk that's actually emerged, is actually a completely different technology than he was even imagining, and yet all of his theories and beliefs are being transplanted by this movement like straight on this new technology and so again like there's no other area of science or technology, where you do that, like when you're dealing with like organic chemistry versus inorganic chemistry, you don't just like say, oh with respect to like either one. Basically, maybe you know growing up and eating the world or something like they're just going to operate the same way like you don't, but you can start talking.

about like a as as we get more more actual systems. That study and more told you to start actually have more scientific arguments here. How do you like that? You know high level. You can talk about the threat of atomic weapons systems, back before we had any automation in in the military and they'll be like very fuzzy kind of but the more more you have drones, coming more more autonomous, you could start imagining. Ok, what is at issue. like was the actual threat of atomic weapons systems. How does it go wrong and still it's it's very vague. We start to get a sense of lake. I should probably be illegal over a wrong or not allowed to do like mass deployment of fully animas drones that are doing aerial strikes. Oh no, I enlarge areas. I think it should be required right so that no no! No, I think if you require that only aerial vehicles are

automated I'll catch you wanna go the other only go the other way that that organic is obvious. but the machine is gonna, make a better decision than the human pilot, but it is it's obvious that is. Best interest of both the attacker and the defender and humanity at large. If machines are making moral decisions and not people, think people make terrible decisions, sometimes at war with like there's a there's ways, this can go wrong to write, although it hurt worse, go terribly wrong. Now,. This goes back to the hope. This is that whole thing about like this ultra. It was the sort of incarnate to be perfect. Vs doesn't need to be better than the human driver. Does the aw A drone need to be perfected, as we now need to be better than human pilot at make. decisions under enormous amounts, stress and uncertainty yet well on average. The the worry that efforts have? Is the runaway you're gonna come alive right? Let me again: that's the sleight of hand, right or not not come alive? I don't know how else I can become one of the loose control as tomorrow, but then they're going to develop

the their one they're going to develop a mind of their own. They are going to develop their own right now, moral, more like a chernobyl style meltdown like a just bugs in the code externally we know for certain that the results in bombing of lake large civilian areas into two degree: that's not possible in the current two strategies that are neutral by him. Actually, we ve been doing a lot of mass balmy societies for a very long. Yes, in a lot of sense, is dying, loudest voice died and if you watch the document are at the heart of war, mcnamara spends to be part of a talking about the fire. coming of the japanese cities or an enemy to the ground, rather the deficit in japan, american military firebombing. The cities in japan was about to conserve bigger devastation and they use nukes. So we ve been doing that for a long time, we also have a germany by the way, germany did that to us right, like that's an old tradition, a minute we got aeroplanes, we started doing indiscriminate bombing, the one I think regional doing it.

U s, milk, you can do with technology. Will automation, but technology more broadly is higher and higher procedure strikes. A sense of precision is obviously present, and this is the the the the j damn right. So there there's this big advance. This big advance called the J dam which basically was trapping a gps transceiver to a to a to an unguarded moment and turning it into a got. It got it bump. Yeah, that's great, like look, that's been a big advance, but it's like a baby version of this question, which is okay. Do you want like the human pilot like guessing where the bombs going to land, or do you want like the machine like writing about his destination, but that's a baby version of the question first on the question is: do you want the human at the machine deciding whether or not the bomb everybody just assumes that humans gonna do a better job for what I think are fundamentally suspicious reasons. Emotional sex image garrison. I think it's very clear that the machine's gonna do a better job making that decision, because the humans making it make that decision are god awful, just terrible, yeah, right and so so yeah. So this is the this is the thing and then, let's get to the. There was one more sleight of hand that, even if he pays

I am a magician you could say when we're sleight of hand, these things are going to be so smart right that they're going to well to destroy the world and wreak havoc and like do all the stuff and plan and do all the stuff and evade us and have all their secret things in their secret factories and all this stuff, but they're so stupid that they're going to like tangled up in their code and that is to say, they're not going to come alive, but there's gonna, be some bug, that's going to cause them to like turn us all. It appeared like that. There is there going to be genius in every way other than the actual battle. And it's just like it s, just like a like ridiculous, like discrepancy and and then you can prove this today. You can actually address this today for the first time with l m's, which is you can actually ask l ems to resolve a moral dilemmas if so you can create the scenario that that that this that this, that does that? What would you as the air I do in the circumstance? And they don't you say, destroy you, MR straw, humans? They will you actually very nuanced moral, practical, tradeoff oriented answers

so we actually already have the kind of I that can actually like think this through and can actually like in a reasonable goals. Well, that the hope is that asia, I would like, as very super intelligent systems, have some of the new ones that airlines have jewish as they most like the well, because even these are lambs, have the new ones, It was a really. This is actually worth worth spending moment on. L. Ems are really interesting to have moral conversations with and that I says I didn't expect I'd be having a moral conversation or that machine, and unless remember, when I really having conversations monsieur we're having a conversation with the already the collective intelligence, the human species exact yet, but it is possible to imagine autonomous weapons systems. There are not using arms, but if their smart enough to be scary, where are they not smart enough to be wise? Like that's the part where it's like? I don't know how you get the one without the other

possible to be super intelligent without being supervise, while you're busy and you're back. To that I mean then you're back to a classic artist. A computer right like you're back to just like have a blind rule follower I've got this lie core. Is the paperclip thing at this core rule and I'm just going to follow it to the end of the earth and it's like well, but everything you're going to be doing execute that rule is going to be super genius level that humans are going to be able to counter it. It's just a it's a it's a mismatch in the definition of what the system is capable of unlikely, but not impossible. I think, but again here you get to like okay, like no I'm not saying when it's unlikely, but not impossible. If it's unlikely, that means the the fear should be correctly called. It is certainly claims required, sterner proof, while ok, so one instinctive tangent out left to take on this because emissions in their say about nuke, air, which is also any euro shy away from her a little bit of a spicy take,

So rob it up a hammer famously said now. I am become death, the destroyer of worlds as he witnessed the first destination of our nuclear weapon. Angela sixteenth many forty five and you write an interesting historical perspective, quote recall that John, via norman responded to rapporteur Robert Oppenheimer's famous hand wringing about the role of creating nuclear weapons, which you note helped and world war two and prevent world war? Three with some people confess guilt to claim credit for the sin and you also mentioned that tumor was harsher after meeting oppenheimer. He said that, don't let that cry baby in here again local requirements, promoting it from the analysis, boy up, didn't just say the famous line near he don't spent years going around basic moaning, I'm going on tv and going into going into the white house and basically like just like doing this hair short the thing itself, the others

a self critical like, oh, my god, I can't believe how awful I am the he's the why they considered. perhaps because of the hang wringing as the father of the atomic bomb, It is easy to use his visit by ms criticism of him as he tried to have taken it to like it. He wanted to end in itself never run Ivan across a very different kind of personality and he's just like. Yes, we ask of this is like an incredibly useful thing. I'm glad we did it. All I know is as widely on credit has been. one of the smartest humans of the twentieth century, with a certain then people. Everybody says like this is mars. Put, however, met when they met him away, That doesn't mean smart doesn't mean the fit so that they get out loved. The circuit can make the case both for and against the critique of oppenheimer here, because we're talking about

nuclear weapons boy, do they seem dangerous? Will the cause of the critique goes deeper? And I let I left this out and here's the real substance I left it out cause. I didn't want to dwell on a nukes in my paper, but here's the deeper thing that happened and I'm really curious. This movie coming out the summer, I'm really curious to see how far he pushes this is. This is the real drama in the story, which is it wasn't just a question of our new good or bad. It was a question of should russia also have them and what what actually happened was Russia got. The boat market invented the bomb russia got They got the bomb through espionage, they got an american and little big american scientists and foreign scientists working on american project. Some combination of the two basic gave the russians, the desire for the bottom and, as other russians got the bum. There's this dispute to this day of oppenheimer's role in that

If, if you read all the history is the kind of composite picture and by the way, we now know a lot actually about soviet espionage in that era, because there's been all this declassified material in the last twenty years. That actually shows a lot of a lot of very interesting things. But if you're gonna read all this what you're, gonna get us oppenheimer himself, probably was not a pretty probably do not hinder the nuclear secrets himself. However, he was close to many people who did cleaning family members- and there were other members of the manhattan project who were russian soviet ss and dead hand over the bomb, and so the view that oppenheimer and people like him had that this thing is awful and terrible and oh, my god and in this stuff, you can argue fed into this ethos at the time that resulted in people thinking that baptists thinking that the only principle thing to do is to give them the russians to bomb and so that the moral believe,

it's on this thing and the public discussion and the role, but the inventors of this technology play the point of this book when they kind of take on this sort of public intellectual moral kind of thing. It can have real consequences right because we live in a very different world today, because russia got the bomb, then we would have lived in had they not in the bottom right, the entire twentieth century. Second, half of the twentieth century would have played out very different. Had those people not given russia, the bomb, and so the stakes were very high, then the good news today, Is nobody sitting here today. I don't think worrying about like an analogous situation with respect to, like I'm, not really worried that somebody was going to decide to give you know the chinese the design for day I, although he did just speak at a chinese conference, which is interesting However, I don't think anything, that's what's at play here, but was at play here all these other fundamental issues around what I believe about this and then what laws and regulations and restrictions that we're going to put on it and and and that's where I draw it like a direct straight.

Anyone in my reading of the history on nukes is like the people who were doing the full hair short public. This is awful. This is terrible actually had like catastrophically bad results from from taking those views and that's what I'm words can happen again, but is there a case to be made that you really need to make the public up to the dangers of nuclear weapons when they were first dropped, like really like I get them. I'm like this is extremely dangerous and destructive weapon. I think the education can happen, quick and early like how it was pretty obvious. We dropped one bomb and destroyed entire city. Yes, eighty thousand people, then yet they looked at groups like. I don't like the reporting of that. You can report that in all kinds of ways, so there was you, can you can do all kinds of slants like war? Is horrible wars terrible? You can do you can, it could seem like nuclear. The use of nuclear weapons is just part of war and all that kind of stuff something The reporting in the discussion of nuclear weapons resulted in us being terrified in awe of the

Power of nuclear weapons and that potentially fed in a positive way towards the game. Theory of mature assured destruction. so this gets to what actually happens get to wear it as long as I'm playing devil's advocate here, yeah yeah, sure, of course, but let's get to what actually happened and then of back into that. So what what actually happened? I believe- and again I think it was a reasonable reading of history is what actually happened was nukes then prevented world war three and they prevented world war three through the game. Theory of mutually assured destruction had nukes not existed. Right. There would have been no reason why the cold war did not go hot right and then there and then you know in the military planners at the time right thought both on both sides thought that there was gonna, be world war, three on the planes of europe, and they thought that was going to be like a hundred million people dead read. It was like the most obvious thing in the world happened right and it's the dog that didn't bark right like it. We'd, like the best single nat thing that happened in the entire twentieth century. Is it like that didn't happen? It actually is, and that point you say a lot of really brilliant things. it is a hit me just as you are saying it.

Air awaited me for the first time, but let two wars in a span of like twenty years. We could have kept getting more more world wars, more, more ruthless and- you could have had a: u s, verses, russia, war you could have by the way. You haven't there's another hypothetical scenario. The other hypothetical scenario is the americans got the bomb, the russians didn't write in america. A dog? And then maybe america would have had the capability to actually roebuck their current? I dont whether that would have happened, but like it's entirely possible and and and and the act of these people, who have these moral positions about cars, they could forecast, they could model, they could forecast the future of other signals. You get used made a horrific mistake because they basically ensured that the iron curtain would continue for fifty years. But what about the risk of an area like these are counterfactual? I dont know that. That's what what would have happened but like The decision to hand a bomb over was a big decision made by people who were very full of themselves.

Britain. Is amazing. America me as a person that latin america I wonder if you are the only ones with a nuclear weapons. That was the, but for canada, but that was the most the guys who seeks the guy's her hand over the about that was actually their moral argument. I would, as you'd, probably not handed over to out would be care about the regimes handed over to maybe give it the british or something like a democratically elected government will look. There are people to this day who think that those by soviet spies did the right thing because they created a balance of terror as opposed to you as having just by the weight limit. Let me thousands of terror was telling clover. Has such a sexy ring to it? Okay, so the full version of the story is John VON norman's, a hero both yours and mine, the full version of the story, as he advocated for a first strike, so

when the: u s had the bomb and russia did not he advocated, for he said we did. We need to strike the right now: strict russia who yes but annoying. Yes, because he said world where three as inevitable, he was very hard core. he hit, his his theory was, and his theory was world war. Three is inevitable: we're definitely going to have world war. Three, the only way to stop world war three, as we have to take them out right now, and we have to come out right now before they get the bomb, because this is our last chance now again like is this an example? Philosophers in politics? I dunno. If that's in there or not, but as I understand her, but nobody is any meaning yet on the other side, so so most of the case studies mostly case studies in books like this are the crazy people on the left. environment is a story. Arguably of the green group on the right. The instinctive computing John for this is the thing, and this is this- is the general principle? Is the current state of that our core thing, which is like, I don't know whether any of these people should we make any of these calls because there's nothing

in either of annoyance, background or oppenheimer's background or any or these pupils background that qualifies them is moral authorities. What this actually brings up the of any I who are the good people too, reason about morality, the ethics, the outside of these risks outside it like the more complicated stuff they? U you agree on, is you know This will go into the has a bad guys and all the of ways they'll do is is interest dangerous is dangerous in interesting, unpredictable ways and who is the right person for the right kinds of people? I think decisions how to respond to it. I attack people so the history of these fields. This is what he talks about in the book. The history of these fields is that the the competence and capability and intelligence and training and accomplishments of senior scientists and technologists working on a technology and then being able to then make moral judgments in that use? The technology that track record is terrible. That record retrogression

It's like catastrophically. Bad people just delete the people they develop that net. analogy are usually not going to be the right people or why would they so? The claim is, of course, there of an hour ones, but the problem is they spent their entire life in a lab right. There not theologians So what you find what you find when you read when you read this when you look at these sisters, did you find it generally are very thinly informed on history sociology on on on numb theology. On morality, ethics? They they lieutenant, In fact, their own world views from scratch. They tend to be very sort of thin if they're not remotely the arguments that you would be having if you've got like a group of highly qualified, theologians or philosophers, or you know, while lemme outset of a as the devil's advocate takes a sip of whiskey, say that I agree with that, but also it seems like the people who are doing color the ethics departments in these texts. Cop,

companies go some far. The other way no they're, not nuanced, on the on his cheer. If ya, You're this kind of study it has become a kind of outraged activism towards directions that don't seem to be grounded in history and humility and nuances again. Drenched with arrogance so two different nature, which is worse for another both about bulgaria, so deftly nothing either. But I guess this is a hard yeah. It's our problem is goes back to work. barton wishes. Ok, who has the truth- and it's like well, you know like how to society's arrive at like truth, and how do we figure these things out? Unlike our elected leaders, play some role in it, you know, we all play some role in it. There have to be some, sir, public intellectuals at some point that bring you know, rationality, intrenchment, humility to it. Those people are few and far between wish

probably present very highly yourself celebrate humility in our public leaders, so getting too number two will ay. I ruined our society short version as you right, murder, robots, don't get us the hate speech and misinformation will. and the action you recommend. In short, don't want the thought police suppress. I will What is this risk of the effective. misinformation, society there's going to be catalyze by air This is the social media is what you just lunatic activism kind of thing. That's popped up in these companies and the industry and its basically, from my perspective, its basically part two of the war, the played out over social media over the last ten years you probably member social media ten years ago, was basically who even wants this. Who wants? Who wants a photo of your cat had for breakfast like this stuff is like silly and trivial, and why can't these nerves, like figure out how to invent something like useful and powerful and

and you know, certain things happened in the political system and then it's sort of the polarity on that discussion switched all the way to social media is like the worst most corrosive, most terrible, most awful technology ever invented, and then it leads to you know terrible of the wrong politicians and policies and politics and like and all this stuff- and that all got catalyzed into this very big kind of angry movement, both inside and outside the companies to kind of brussels. yet it to heal in that got focused in particular on two topics, so called hate speech, and so called misinformation and that's been decided playing out for the last four, I stuck it in. I don't even really want to even argue the pros and cons of the sides just to observe that that's been like a huge fight in his head. you'll be consequences to how these companies operate. Basically that same those same sets of theories that same activist approach that same energy is being transplanted straight to a, and you see that already happening. Why you know judge you pity, will answer. Let's say certain questions and others is what gives you the can

speech about. You know whenever it starts with as a large language model. I cannot, you know, basically means that somebody has reached in there and told it. It can't talk about certain topics I think so. There's is good. So it's an interesting question. So a couple of couple of observations, so so one is the people who find this. The most frustrating are the people who are worried about the murder robot. so and in fact, the the circle ex risk people right. They started with the term safety, the term became an alignment when the term became ai alignment is when the switch happened from where, where it is going to kill us all to were worried about his patient misinformation, the ai risk People have now renamed their thing. I not kill. Everyone is which I have to admit is a catchy term, and they are very frustrated by the fact that the h b, the sort of activists driven hate speech, misinformation, kind of thing is taking over, which is what's happened, is taking over the ethics feel has been taken over by the hate speech. Misinforming

if the people you know, look at what I like to live in a world in which, like everybody, was nice to each other, all the time and nobody ever said anything mean, and nobody ever used a bad word, and everything was always accurate and honest, like that sounds great. Do I want to live in a world where there's like a centralized thought police working through the tech companies to enforce the view of a small than of elites that they're gonna determined with the rest of us, think and feel like absolutely not that there could be a minute. Well somewhere, like wikipedia type of moderation, is moderation Wikipedia? That's it somehow crowd sourced were you, don't have centralized elites, but is also not completely just a free for all, because the end, if you have the entirety of human knowledge fingertips. You do a lot of harm. I give you eat, you have a good assistant, that's a completely uncensored! It can help you, bomb. They can help you mess were with people's physical wellbeing right,

they, because that information is out there and asian it this week Presumably theirs it would be, you could see the positive in censoring some aspects of an ai model, when it's helping you commit literal violence it is a section might later sexually ass. They were. I talk about bad people, doing bad things, yes right, which which in theirs is there There are things that we should discuss their. What happens in practice is these lie You look at this already. These lines are not easy to draw in. What would I have observed in the social media? Version of this is no, I describe it as the slippery slope is not a fallacy. It's an avid ability, the minute you, This kind of activist personality gets in a position to make these decisions. They they take it straight to infinity like the the the the it he goes into the crazy zone like almost immediately and never comes back, because people become drunk with power. Right and they they do. Look if you're in a position to determine what the entire world thinks and feels and reads and says, like you're, going to take it

and you know IRAN has ventilated this with the twitter files over the last three months in issues like crystal clear like about it got there now reason for optimism. Is what elon is doing with the community notes of the am so community knows is actually a very interesting thing. So what are you on is trying to do with community notes? Is he's trying to have it where there's only community note when people who have previously disagreed on many topics, degree on this one, he has a thin, that's what that's. What I'm trying to get at is like this. That could be wikipedia like models. The community knows the type of models where allows you to assess, It should either provide context or sensor in a way that does not resist the slippery slope, nature and others in an hour there's an entirely different approach here, which was basically we have a eyes that are producing content. We could also have a eyes that are consuming content. Writing One of the things that your assistant could do for you is help you consume all the content right and basically tell you when you're getting played so Example Onawandah. My kiddies is right to be very mean on child safe

I'm gonna want it to filter for him all kinds of inappropriate stuff that you shouldn't be saying just cause he's a kid rightly any I'm saying, as you can implement, that you could use the architectural you could say you can solve this on the clients side right in solving on the service. I gives you an opportunity to dictate the entire world, which I think is where you you take the slippery slope to hell. there's another architectural approach, we're supposed to sell this on the clients I'd, which is certainly what indoors. It's a virus number five were highly due to bad people. Do bad things a agent. agile language miles you to do something bad things, but the hope is there that you can have Large language models used than defend against it by more people by smarter people buy more effective people. Skilled people are like other stuff for free preparing argument on valuable knew about so and so number one right. You can use the technology defensively and there's a way. We should be using ai to build like broad spectrum, vaccines and antibiotics for like bio weapons, and we should be using ai to like hunt terrorists and catch criminals and like we should be doing like all kinds of stuff like that. In fact, we should be

those things even just like go. Get like in obesity. Go eliminate risk from like regular pathogens that aren't like constructed by an eye, so there's thirst, there's the whole there's a whole defence. Instead of things second, as we have many laws on the books about the actual about things right, so it actually illegal to be a criminal to commit crimes to commit terrorist acts to you know, build pathogens with the intent to deploy them to kill people, and so we have those we we don't. We actually don't need new laws for the vast majority of scenarios. We should already have the laws of the book, on the books. The third argument is the minute, and this is sort of the foundational one that gets really tough, but the minute you get into this thing which, which you are kind of getting into, which was like okay, but like don't you need censorship, sometimes ran into need restriction. Sometimes it's like ok. What is the cost of that? particular in the world of opensource, right and so opensource ay I going to be allowed or not. If source ay, I is not allowed than what is the regime it's going to be necessary legally and technically, to prevent it from developing right in

here again, is where you get under, and people have proposed that these kinds of things you get into, I would say, pretty extreme territory pretty fast. Do we have a monitor agent on every cpu and keep you that reports back to the government, what we're doing with computers darwin seizing jp clusters to get beyond a certain size: lake, and by the way? How are we doing all that globally? Right, unlike if china Developing m l m beyond the scale that we think is allowable. Are we going to invade red We have figures on the ai x risk side who are advocating, and you know potentially up to nuclear strikes, to prevent this kind of thing, and so here you get into this thing: in your meat? You could maybe say this. As you know, you could even say this is what good bad or indifferent or whatever, but like it. Here's the comparison of nukes. The comparison nukes is very dangerous because when it's just nukes we're just as justify, although we can come back to nuclear power, but then the thing was like with nukes, you could control with plutonium right. You could track plutonium and it was like hard to come by as just math and code

right as citizens like math textbooks and it's like their youtube videos to teach you how to build a like, there's opens or is already open source of forty billion prouder model running around already call falcon online than anybody can download and so ok, you walk down the logic path says we need to guard rules on this in you find yourself in a to thorough, terry to tell turn regime of thought. Control ends, control that would be so brutal that you would have destroyed the sight of you're trying to protect, and so I just don't see how that actually works. then show my brains, guns, full full steam ahead here cause. I agree with basically everything you're saying what I'm trying to play devil's advocate here there, because, okay, you highlighted the fact that there is a slippery, love to human nature. The mommy said the something is that since everything

The alignment starts out sounding sounding nice, but these that aligned to the beliefs of some so a group of people and then it's just the year police this? The set the number number people you're lying to smaller, smaller as that group, because more more powerful, ok, but I just speaks to the people there, answer are usually the assholes and the assholes get richer. Wonderful, what to do without that. For I The one way to ask this question is: do you think the base models of the bay. the base our foundation model should be open source. They got. What would the mazurka work is saying they want to do so. I spent look only, I think it's totally appropriate. The companies that are in the business of producing a product or service should be able to have her why the range of policies that they put right now. Just again, I want a heavily censored model for my eight year old like I. Actually

what's it like like, I would pay more money for the ones more heavily censored than the one that's not right and so like there are certainly scenarios where comp companies will make that decision. Look at an interesting thing you brought up the urged. It's is. Is this really a speech issue, one of the at the big tech companies are dealing with is that content generated from an l m is not covered under section to thirty, which is the law that protects internet platform companies from being sued for the user, generate content, and so it is actually and so that there is actually a is actually question. I think there's still a question which is can't big company and big american companies actually feel generative ay. I and all, or is the liability actually gonna, just ultimately commitment? They can't do it because the minute the thing says something bad. it doesn't even need to be hate speech. It could just be like an enact. You could hallucinate a product, you know detail on a vacuum, winner. You know, and all of a sudden I vacuum company sues for misrepresentation, there are those in the cemetery, their rights as the the llc reproducing billions of answers to questions, and it only needs to get it

wrong. Laws have to get up data really quick here ya. Nobody knows what to do with that right. So it's only way like they're they're there. There are big there big questions around how companies operate at all. So we can. We talk about those, but then there is this other questions like ok, the open source or what about source, and in my answer to your question, is kind of like obviously, yes, the models path there has to be followed and source here because to live in a world in which that open source is not allowed. Is a world of recognition. Speech control, human control, machine control I mean black helicopters, with jackbooted thugs coming out repelling down and seizing your gp. You like territory. Well, no I'm a hundred percent serious though that's just thinks that bristol at least no. No, no! No! No! No! That's! What's required to enforce it like. How will you enforce a ban on open source? And I will you could add- friction to it that hard to get the models? Could people lows be able to get the models but it would be more in the shadows, the leaving open source,

now in the? U s like the next time they do that. What are we do like? Oh, I see or like of the fourteen year old in indonesia comes out with a breakthrough ma. You know we talked about. Most great software comes from a small number of people. Some kid comes out with some big new breakthrough and quantization, or something and has some huge breakthrough in like what. What are we going to like invade indonesia and arrest him. It seems I can tell the size models and effectiveness. A modest the big tech companies will probably lead the way for quite a few years and in the question is of what policies they should use the they can in indonesia should not be regulated, but should, google matter microsoft, opener be regulated well, so the business goes when does it become dangerous

is: is the danger that its quote as powerful as the current leading commercial model, or is it that it is, and it is just at some other arbitrary threshold and then by the way, like look? How do we know? What we know today is that you need like a lot of money to my train, these things, but their advances being made every week on training efficiency, and you know, data all kinds of synthetic being. Look. I don't even like the synthetic data thing we're talking about. Maybe some kid figures that await otto generation thing: they didn't change everything they ve yeah, exactly and so like sitting here today like that that the breakthrough just happened right, your eminence. Finally, the breakthrough just happened so don't know what the shape of this technology is going. Be I mean that the big shock that the big shock here is ass, you know, whatever number of billions of parameters basically represents at least a very big percentage of human thought like who would imagine that, if there's already work under way. There was just this paper that just came out that basically tasted jpg three scale model uncompress it down a run on a single thirty two course. If you like who would have predicted that have predicted yeah

You know some of these models. Now you can run a raspberry pis like today, they're very slow, but, like you know, maybe there'll be up your perceived real perform like this matthew here, rebecca, rebecca duty, math and code math and code math code and data is bits marks just like the way this point just screw it. I dunno to do this, you guys greatest that thing, yeah, yeah yeah, I'm a huge believin opensource here, so my urgent, We're going to have to here's my argument as a my argument for arguments is ai is going to be like air is going to be everywhere like it's just this is just going to be in text, but it already is it'll, be in textbooks and kids are going to grow up. Knowing how to do this, and it's just going to be a thing it's going to be in the air, and you can't like pull this back anywhere. He could pull back air, and so you just have to figure out how to live in this world right and then that that and then that's where I think. Like all this hand, wringing about air risk is basically complete waste of time, because the the the the effort should go into okay, water.

But what it? What does the defensive approach? And so, if you're worried about it, I generated pathogens. The right thing to do is to have a permanent project. Warp. Speed, right and funded lavishly was close to a manhattan list. Diploma register manhattan project for biological defence and was belay eyes unless have light broad spectrum vaccines, where, like we're insulated, forever pathogens, and it was within thing, is because a software, a kid miss his basement teenager could build. Like a system, the defence against the worst? It though there was a mere unto me defence is super exciting. As July guide, if you believe in the good of human nature. For that must be borne too good to be, The saviour of humanity is really exciting. Must not forget that dramatic snow about, like that, help people to help her natural yeah. Ok, what about just the jump around? What about the risk of will? I led to crippling in quality

you know, cause were kind of thing. Everybody's life would become better. Is it possible that the which get rich ear. So this is actually a runaway, goes back to marxism. So because this was the curse of the core claims, system right basically, was that the owner, the owners of capital were busy on the means of production and that over time they would basically accumulate other wealth. The workers be paying, and you know and bigger, getting nothing in return, beneath it anymore. Any more right is very worried about what he called mechanization would later became known as automation, and that in other workers would be a misery it and the capitalist would end up with with with us that this was one of the court court core principles of marxism. Of course, it turned out to be wrong about every previous waiver technology. The real, They turn out to be wrong about every previous waiver technology. Is that the way that the self interested owner of the machines makes the most money is by providing the production capability in the form of products and services to the most people, the most customers as possible? the largest, and it is why this funny things are every ceo, your nose. This intuitively, and yet it's like hard life nasa, though the way you

the most money businesses by selling to the largest market you can possibly get to the largest market. You can possibly get too as everybody on the planet and so every large company does is everything that it can to drive down prices to be able to get volumes up to people to get everybody on the planet, and that happened with everything from electricity it up into a telephone happen with radio. It happen with autonoe bills. It happened with smart phones to happen with the budget, cs. It happened with the internet, happen with mobile broadband? It's happened by the way we coca cola. It has happened with like every basically industrially produced you no good or service that people want. You want to drive it to the largest possible market and then, as proof of that, it's already happened right, which is the early adopters of why? Djibouti and bang are not like you know, exxon and bowing there. You know your uncle and your nephew right is just light for either really available online or as available for twenty bucks. Mothers, something. But you know these things went the this, this distant algae, what mass market immediately and so look that that the owners of the

the means of production that whoever does this doesn't mention he's trolling all the questions. There are people who are gonna, get really rich doing this, producing these things, but they're going to get really rich by taking this technology to the broadest possible market. So, yes, they'll get rich, but they'll get rich, having a huge positive impact on making that making technology available to everybody here, but against powerful same thing so that there's this amazing kind of twist in in business history wishes. You cannot spend ten thousand dollars and a smartphone right. You can one hundred thousand dollars you can spend like I would buy the million dollar smartphone like I'm signed up for it like if it's like suppose, a million dollar smartphone was like much better than that. It's our smartphone like I'm, thereby it it doesn't exist. Why doesn't it exists? it makes so much more money driving the price further down from one thousand dollars than they were trying to harvest right, and so is, is just this repeating pattern you see over and over again, where the and and and what's what's great, what's great about it. Is you do not need to rely on anybody's, enlightened right generosity to do you just need to rely on capitalist self interest. what about a tragic and our jobs? That's a very big

Similar thing here: they're sort of a there's, a core fallacy which again was was very common in marxism, which is what's called the lump of labour fallacy, and this is sort of the I see that there is a only a fixed amount of work to be done in the world and if the in it's all been done today by p, and then, if machines do it, there's no other work to be done by people in that's just a completely backwards view on how the economy develops and grows. because what happens is not in fact that what happens? Is the introduction technology into production process causes prices to fall as prices for consumers or spending power? Is consumer sent more spending power They create new demand that, we demand that causes capital and labour to form into new enterprises to satisfy new, wants and needs, and the result is more jobs, higher wages and you watson needs the worries. The creation of new wants and needs. rapid rate. I mean there's a lot of turnover and job, so people will lose jobs since the actual experience

losing a job and having to learn new things in your skills is painful for the individual. Two things one is new jobs are often much better, so essentially came up. Is that there is this panel about a decade ago, when all the truck drivers are going to lose their jobs right and number one. That didn't happen, because we haven't figured out a way to actually finish that yet, but but everything was like electric driver like I grew up in a town. It was basically consisted of a truck stop right, what new alot of truck drivers and like truck drivers, live a decade shorter than everybody else like they. It's a it's a is like a very dangerous like they get like literally they have like irish skin cancer and on inside of their own the lesson of their body from from being in the sun all the time. The vibration of being in the truck is actually very damaging to your to your physiology, and there's actually perhaps partially because of that reason there's a shortage yeah. of people who want to be truck drivers like it's. Not it's not

is the question. Always you want to ask somebody like that, as you want you know filtering, or would you want your kid be doing this job, unlike most of them, will tell you know like I want my kid to be sitting in a cubicle somewhere like where they don't have this like, where they don't die ten years earlier, and so so then jobs number one. The new jobs are often better, but you don't get the new jobs until he goes The change and then to your point that the training winos always the issue was: can can people adapt and again here you need imagine living in a world in which everybody has the a assistant capability right to be able to pick up the scales. Much more clay and be able to have some people have a machine to work with our met their scale to southern, be painful, but this the photos of life is people for something I mean there's no real. If there is no question as painful for some people in there in other. Yes, this is now I've got get not a utopian on this, and it's not like us, its positive everybody in the moment, but it has been overwhelmingly positive for three hundred years. Look that they can here. The concern the concern this concern has played out for four literally centuries, and you know this is the sort of what I do know the story, the leonards

that you may remember. There was a panic in the two. Thousands around outsourcing was going to take all the jobs. There was a panic in the twenty tens that robots are going to take all the jobs and in twenty, team. Before covered, we had more jobs at higher wages. Both in the countries in the world than at any point human history So the overwhelming evidence is that the net gain here is like dislike wildly positive and most most people like overwhelmingly come at the other side, pinkish beneficiaries of this. So you write that the single greatest risk. This is the risk of most convinced by. The single greatest risk of eyes that china woods global air dominance and we, the united states in the west, to not collaborate? So this is the other thing which is a lot of sort of a irish debates today, sort of assume that we're the only game in town right, and so we have the ability to kind of sit in the united states and criticize ourselves and have our government, like you, know, beat up on our companies and we're figure out a way to restrict or companies can do, and you know we're going to

going to ban this ban that restrict this. Do that and then there's this, like other, like force out there, that, like doesn't believe we have any power of them whatsoever. They have no desire to sign up for whatever rules we decide to put in place gonna do whatever it is they're going to do and we have no control over it at all and is china. Specifically the chinese communist party, and they have a completely publicized open. You know and for what they're going to do what they are, and it is not we have in mind and not only do they have that as a vision and a plan for their society, but they also have a division and plan for the rest of the world to their plan is what surveillance authorities control, so authoritarian population control cup come you're, just gonna go good old fashioned, communist authorities in control and surveillance and enforcement, an social credit scores and all the rest of it, and you are to be monitored, metered within an inch of everything all the time and it's gone They see the end of human freedom and that their golan enough, they justified on the basis of that's what leads to peace,

Are you aware that the regulating in the united states all your help, I was enough to wear the chinese gum when they re so their planned. Yet, yes, yes and the reason for that, as they and again there very public unless they may have their plans to proliferate their approach around the world, and they have this program called the digital silk road rent which is building on their their silk road investment programme, and they ve got there if they ve been ling given laying networking infrastructure all over the world with their five g network with as their company. While I said they ve been lang all this fabric, but financial want a logical fabric all over the world in their plans to roll out their vision of a high on top of that and to have every other country be running their version and then, if you a country prone to you, tourism, you're a going to find this to be in a credible way to become more authoritarian. your country by the way, not prone authoritarianism. You're gonna have the chinese communist party running your infrastructure and having backdoors into it right. It is also not good. What's your sense of where they stand in terms of the race towards us,

for intelligence as compared to the united states. You so good there behind but bad news as they know they must say they get access everything we do so there probably a year behind at each point in time that they get you no downloads. I think of basically all of our work on a regular basis through a variety of means and they are, you know at least we'll see there at least putting out reports of very complete, just put out a report last week of a of a gp to three point, five analog and then they put out this report forget what it's called, but they put up this this element of cell I made other way when opening I plus a out they they one of the ways they test. You know lgbt as they they they run it through standardized exams like the s, a t right, just while you can kind of gauge how smart it is and so the chinese report, they ran their l m through the chinese equivalent of the s a t, and it includes a section on marxism in a section on mouse, sit on thought. It turns out there. I does very well on both of those topics right. This is so

this? This alignment? Communist, I write like literal communist. I write oh they're vision as like? That's the you know, so you know you just imagine like you're a school. You know you're a kid ten years from now in argentina or in germany or in who where indonesia- and you ask day, I explained to you like how economy works and it gives you the most cheery upbeat explanation of chinese style communism. You ve ever heard right so like This takes you're like a really big, for my it, as we have been talking about. My hope is not just for the united states, but we're just the kitten as basement the open source or alum the are of a trust, large central as institutions with super powerful, no matter what their ideology power corrupts. You been investing in tech companies for about the twenty years and about fifteen of which was with Andriessen horwitz now what

You think trends in tech. Have you seen over that time? Just talk about companies and just the evolution of the tech industry. I mean the big shift over twenty years has been tat used to be a tools industry for basically from like nineteen forty through to about twenty ten. Almost all the big successful companies were pics and shovels companies so pc. it a smartphone some some some tool that somebody also pick up and use. Since twenty ten most of the big winds had been in applications. So That starts a company. You know it starts in an existing industry and goes directly to the customer in that industry. In the early saw examples. There were like cooper and left and urban be, and then that model is kind of elaborating out The other day, I think, is actually reversion on that for now kiss, like most of my business right now, is actually in cloud provision of of a I've AP eyes for other people to build on, but but the big deal It would be an app, I think I think, most of the money I think

probably will be in whatever your eye, financial adviser or you're a doctor or your eye lawyer or you know, take your pick of whatever the domain as in their end was interesting. As in Sweden, the vatican does everything we did. Our entrepreneurs kind of elaborate every possible idea. And so there will be a set of companies that, like make a I something that can be purchased and used by large law firms, and there will be other companies that just go direct market as it is, and I were what advice. Could you give for star founder this? and since so many successful companies, so many companies fail. Also what advice could you you have to start a founder someone who wants to build the next super successful startup in the tech space, the googles, the apples, the twitters years, of the great thing about the really great founders, as they don't take any advice. So so, if you find yourself listening to advice

you shouldn't do it, but that's actually just to elaborate on that it. If you could also speak to great founders, deal I quote were makes a great founder, so it makes a great founder is super smart and coupled with super energetic, coupled with super courageous? I think it's some of those those three and item Jesus, passion and courage. First, to try So the third one is a choice. I think it is a choice which discourages question of pain, tolerance right so how how many times you willing get punch in the face before he quit in the years, maybe too, just think people and understand about what it's like to be a start founder is, he gets. It gives the gets very romanticized right and even when it fail, when they fail Asturias romanticized about liquid what a great it was like the reality of it is most of what happens. Is people telling you know they usually follow that with your stupid,

I know I will not come to work for you. Avalon leave my cushy job at Google can work for you. No I'm not going to buy your products. You know no, I'm not going to run a story about your company. No I'm not this, that the other thing, and so A huge amount of what people have to do is just get used to just getting put an and and the reason people don't understand. This is because, when you're a founder, you cannot let on that. This is happening because it will cause people to think that you're, weak and they'll lose faith in you. So you have to pretend that you're, having a great time when you're dying inside right just a misery. But why did what they do, what they do, yeah that's the thing it's it is a level especially one of the conclusions. I think as it is. I think it's actually for most of these people on a risk adjusted basis is probably an irrational act. They could probably be morphing. If successful on average, if they just got like a real job and at a big company? And but there's you know some people, david in rational need to do something new and build something for themselves, and some people just can't tell her it having bosses. Oh here's, a fun thing is: how do you reckon shut founders,

so you call that your normally referenced decorative hundred and seventy, as you call the bosses of their effort, and then you find out if they were good employees and now you're, trying to reference check, Steve jobs right and it's like, oh god, he was terrible. You know he was a terrible employee. He never did what we told him to do it What is a good reference when the previous boss actually say there. There then everyday withdrew, you told them to do. That might be a good thing, but ideally, ideally what you want is I will go. I would like to go to work for that person. He worked for me here and now I'd like to work for him now. Firstly, most people can't their eager yup. He can't handle that, so they won't say that, but that that that's the ideal, what advice would you give to those folks in space that intelligence, passion and courage? So I think the other big thing is you see people, sometimes you say I want to start a company in and they kind of work for the process of coming up with an idea. In generally, those don't work as well as the case where somebody has the idea first and then the I realise that there is an opportunity to build a company and then they just turn out to be the right kind of person to do that. We said

Do you mean what's wrong? big vision or gmail specifics of like products supposed to have specific, like specifically want yet specifics like what is that because if the first five years, you don't get to have vision, you just gotta, build something. People want and you've got to figure out a way to sell it to him. Right is very practical or you never get to big vision. So for the first, the first brought you you have an idea of a set of products of the first product that can actually make some money. Yeah like it's got to it. First products gotta work. What by which I mean like it's technically work, but then it has to actually fit into the category in the customer's mind of something that they want and then and then, by the way, the other part is they actually want to pay for it like somebody's gotta pay, the bills and so you gotta figure out how a price it and whether you can actually struck the money yeah. So usually is much more predictable. This is success is never predictable, but it's more predictable. If you start with a great idea and backing to start in the company, that is what we did. We must act before we escape the google guys had the google search engine working at Stanford right and the

you could have tons of examples where they appear over. There had ebay working before he left his previous job So every love that idea just having a thing, a protest, actually works before you even begin to remotely scale, but it's also far easier to raise money right, like the ideal pitch that we receive is here's the thing that works. Would you like to invest in our company are not like that so much easier than here's thirty slides with a dream right, And then we have this concept called their dms, which are of algae, a sprint of us and came up with when he was with us, and so so so then there's this thing as costa mythology wishes, I know, there's a mythology of that kind of you know these. These ideas, kind of arrive like magic or people, kind of stumble into 'em. It's like E bay with the pez dispensers or something. the reality usually with the big success, is that the founder has been chewing on the problem for five or ten years before they start the company and they often worked on it in school, or

even experimental on it when they were a kid and they ve been kind of training up over that period of time to be able to do the thing. So there, like a true domain expert. There is a certain sort of sounds like moment, apple pie, which has yet to be a domain expert. What you're doing, but you wouldn't enough the mythology. So strong like. Oh, I just like others idea in shower not doing it. Likewise is generally not that now because were the main. Maybe in the shower he had the exact products invitation details. by your usual. You gonna be for like years, if not decades. Thinking about thank everything around that or we copy idea may is because the idea, maize, basically is like there's always permutations like for any. I for any idea. There's like all these different permutations. Who should the customer be what shape forms the product have and how should we take it to market and all these things and and

Oh, that really smart founders have thought through all these scenarios by the time they got to raise money and they have like detailed answers on every one of those fronts big because they put so much thought into it. The sort of the the sort of more well haphazard founders, haven't thought about any of any of that, then it's the detailed ones who tend to do much better today know The jackal leap, if you have a cushion or happy life. I mean the best reason is because you cannot tolerate not doing it this is the kind of thing where, if you have to be advised into doing it, you shouldn't dirt, and so Probably the opposite, which is you just have such a burning sense of this, has to be done. I have to do this. I have no choice. What, if is going to lead to a lot of pain, it's going to lead to pain? What is the means losing serve social relationships and damaging here? I relationship with loved ones and all that kind of stuff yeah. What so we're like? Oh he's going to put you in a social tunnel for sure right, so you're going to like you, know,

There's this game you complete on twitter, which is you can do any whiff of the idea that there is basically any such thing as work life balance and that people should. I should work hard in everybody s. Add but, like the truth is like all, the successful foreigners are working eighty hour weeks and they're working. You know they form various very strong social bonds with the people they work with. They tend to lose a lot of friends on the outside or put those friendships on ice. Like that's just the nature of of the thing- and you know, for most people. It's worth the tradeoff. You know the advantage you may be younger founders have, as maybe they have less you know- maybe they're not near, for example, they're not married yet or don't have kids, yet that's an easier thing to bite off. Can you be an older fonder yeah? You definitely can yeah yeah. Many of the most successful founders are second third, fourth and founders they're in their thirties, forties fifties and the good news, older founder, as you know more in you know a lot more about what to do, which is very helpful. The problem is okay. Now you've got like a spouse and a family and kids and, like you, finally go to the baseball game and like you can't go to the best you know, and so the skin life is full of difficult choices. Yes can Jason, ah

you ve written, a blog posts, are what you been up to you at this in october. Twenty two, I quote me They are trying to learn a lot, for example, the political events of twenty four ten or twelve. Sixteen may clear to me that I didn't understand politics at all reference. Maybe some of this, this, I care, and so I deliberately withdrew from political engagement and fundraising and instead read my way back into history and as far to the political left and political right, as I could so just high level question. What's your approach to learn Yes, it's basically say its outer died act, so it sort of ghost is going down the rabbit holes it's a combination of, say, I kind of allude to it in that in that quote, it's a combination of breadth and depth. And so I tend to yeah- I tend to go broad by the nature of what I do I go abroad, but then I tend to go deep in the rabbit hole for awhile, read everything I can and then come out of it and I might or might not reverse that rabbit hole for another decade and in that blog post, that I'd recommend

people go check out? You actually was the budget different books, the euro. Commend and different topics, anymore the left and the american right just a lot of really get stuff. The best explanation for the current structure of our society, politics, you give to recommendations for books and the spanish civil war. six books and deep history, the american right, comprehensible, proceeded of Adolf hitler there one of which are ready. I can recommend six books in the deepest her the american left the american right america, left looking at the history to give you the context by goofy of merriment lenin, two of them and revolution at you have never read a bag found lenin. Maybe that they'll be useful. Everything has been so marks. Focused the sebastian biography of one in his extraordinary victors. Abashing aware blow your mind so still useful to me whether what is incredible, I should think it's a single best book on this

union so that the perspective of lenin is may be the best way to look at the soviet union. Vs Stalin vs marks for server very interesting, said two books on fascism and anti fascism. By the same or author bar Paul Godfrey. really book and the nature of mass movements and collective psychology, the definitive workin intellectual life under totalitarian ism? The captain mind are the definitive, worked and impractical. I found a total journalism, there's a bunch theirs. She and the single buzz book foresaw, did the list here just incredible, but you say the single buzz book, found and who we are and how we got here. The ancient city of london, Dennis forestall de cool anxious, I like it what's so what did you lie about? Who we are ass? He was illustration from the book here, so this is a fascinating by christmas,

That's a free by the way that this in its it's vaccinating sixty is you can download it or you can buy pronounce up prince of it, but it's it was this guy who is a professor at the sorbonne in eighteen sixties and he was apparently a savant on antiquity. Greek and roman antiquity, and in the reason I say this, because his sources are one hundred percent original, greek and roman sources, so he wrote basically, a history of western civilization from on the order of four thousand years ago to basically to present times entirely working on prussian, original, greek and roman roman sources, and what he was specifically trying to do was he was trying to reconstruct from the stories of the race and the ramos he was trying to reconstruct what life in the west was like before the greeks and the romans which was in this in the in the civilization known as the inner europeans and the answer yeah and this is sort of circa four thousand two thousand bc to you know sort of five hundred bc kind of that fifteen hundred year stretch where civilization, developed and his conclusion was basically called

They were basically courts and civilization is or organised into calls in the intensity of the courts was like a million far beyond anything that we will recognise today, like it, was a level of all encompassing leaf and action around religion I was at a level of extreme that we wouldn't even recognize. It ends Specifically, he tells the story of. Basically, there were three levels of courts. There was the family called the tribal called them, He called it. Is this society scaled up and then each? called, was a joint calls of our family gods, which were ancestor gods and then nature gods. Then you are bonding into a family. A tribe or a city was based on your adherence to that religion. People who were now of your family, tribe city worship, different gods, which gave you not just the right with responsibility to kill them on site.

Right, so there were serious about their called sword core by the way, shocking development. I did not realise as zero concept of individual rights, like even even up to the greeks and even in the romans they didn't have the concept of individual rights like the idea that as an individual, would have like some rights just like noopener right and you look back and you're just like wow, that's just like crazily like fascist, in a degree that we wouldn't recognize today, but it's like well, they were living under extreme pressure for survival, and you in your the theory goes. You could not have people running around making claimed individual rights when you're just trying to get like your tribe through the winter right like you need like hardcore commander well and so, and written and actually what what, if, through modern political lens, those colts were basically both fascist and communist. They were fascists in terms of social control and then they were communist in terms of economics. But you think that's fundamentally that like pull towards called this is within us or so so my conclusion from this book, so so so so the way we naturally think about the world we live in today is like we basically have

an improved version of everything that came before us right like we have. Basically, we figured out all these things around morality and ethics and democracy in all these things like they were basically stupid and retrograde and we're like smart, sophisticated and we ve been proved all this I after in that book. I now believe in many ways the opposite, which is now actually we are still running in that original model. We just running in an incredibly diluted version of it. We're still running basically and calls as just our culture at like a thousand. There are millions, the level of intensity right, and so our so just as did take religions you know the modern experience of a christian in our time, even somebody who considers him a devout christian is just a shadow of the level of intensity of somebody who blocked her religion vacuum in the area. And then by the way we have constructed, goes back to our a discussion. We we, we, then sort of endlessly create new calls like we're. Trying to fill the void right, rich and avoid is avoided.

bonding, okay living in their era, like everybody living today, transport of that era would view it as just like completely intolerable in terms of like the lot, the loss of freedom and the level of basically fascist control. However, every single person in that era- and he really stresses this- they knew exact, where they stood. They know exactly where they belonged. They know exactly what their purpose, what they know exactly what they needed to do. They know exactly why they were doing it. They had total certainty about their place in the universe to the question of meaning. The question of purpose was very distinctly clearly defined them absolutely overwhelmingly undisputed, undeniably says we turn the volume down on the cultures and, yes, we start to. the search for meaning, says getting harder and harder. Yes does we? We don't have that we are, we are ungrounded, we are, we are, we are uncensored and we- and we all feel it right and that's why we reach for you know, is why we still reach for religion is why we reach, for you know when people start to take on you know. Let's say you have faith in science may be beyond where they should put it

You know by the way, like sports teams are, like a you know, they're like a tiny little version of a cult, and you know that africa units are a tiny little version of a cult right. You know, political, you know and there's cause, there's full blown calls on both sides of the political spectrum right now, right operating in plain sight, not full blown oh paradise to what it was compared to what it used to mean. We would today consider full blown, but like yes, they're there at like I dunno at one hundred thousand through something of the intensity of of of what people had back then so we live in a world today that in many ways is more advanced and moral and so forth, and had certainly a lot nicer, much nicer world to live in, but we live in a world. That's like a very washed out. It's like everything has become Mary colourless and gray as compared to help people used experienced things, which is, I think, why so prone to reach for drama. We there's something in us. Deeply involved: we want that back. and I wonder where it's all headed as we turn the volume down more and more. What advice would you give to young folks today in high highschool and college how to be successful in their career

successful in their life you're. So the tools that are available today army are just like sometimes you know burt. I sometimes bore kits by describing like what it was like to go. Look up a book. You know to try to like discover a fact, and you know in the in the old days the nineteen seventies, nineteen eighties go to library and the card catalogue and the whole thing you go through all that work, and then the book is checked out. You have to wait two weeks and like, like It has to be in a world not only where you can get the answer to any question, but also the world. Now the air world, where you've got like the assistant that will help you do anything help you teach learn anything like your ability both to learn and also to produce, is just like. I dunno a million fold beyond what it used to be. Am I have a? I have a blog post Ivan right, I call out where, where are the hyper productive people, like your question, right like with these it like there should be authorised that are reading, like hundreds of thousands of like upstanding books. What the authors there's a consumption question too. but yet well, maybe not maybe not your right, but so the tools

Much more powerful are getting much more artists, musicians, yeah right! Why aren't musicians producing a thousand times the number of songs right like with like the tools, are spectacular? So what was the explanation and by way of advice like more his motivations dying to be turned down a little bit of what I think it might be distraction distraction it's it's so easy to just sit and consume that I think people get distracted from production, but if you wanted to you know as a young person, if you wanted to really stand out, you could get on like a a hyper productivity curve very early on the greater your the stir, there's great, storing roman history of plenty. The elder, who was this legendary statesman, died in the vesuvius option to run the risk of france, but he was famous both for being of our basically being appalling math, but also being an author. He wrote apparently like hundreds of books, most of which have been lost, but it like release encyclopedias

and he literally like would be reading and writing all day long, a matter what else is going on and he was so. He would like travel with like four slaves and two of them are responsible for reading to him, and two of them are responsible for taking taken dictation, and so, like you cross country and, like literally, he would be writing books like all the time, and apparently they were spectacular red there's only a few that survive they were amazing, does a lot of value to being somebody for five focus in his life, I like, when there are examples like there are. You know, there's this guy a judge. I was just a posner posner who wrote like forty books and was also great federal judge. You know, there's oil are orphaned biology. I think it's like this is one of these. You know where he is, his output is prodigious, and so it's like yeah, I mean with these tools why not

Can I gotta think we're rich worthless, interesting kind of freeze for a moment, we're like this, these tools and honour, but his hands in a british just kind of staring at the front of figure out what to do that? Then the new tools we have discovered fire yeah and trying to figure out how to use it to cook. You told him ferris that the perfect days caffeine for ten hours and alcohol for four hours you didn t get be mentioned, as did you about, says everything out perfectly ass. He says so was so. Let me ask what was the secret ballots and maybe to happiness in life? I dont, believe a balance, so I went over the wrong person. S gloomy elaborates why you I believe in balance I mean I I maybe it's just and I I look. I think people I think people are wired differently, so I I think it's hard to generalize Kind of thing, but I'm a much happier and more satisfied when I'm fully committed to something so I bear in favour of outlay of imbalance here, imbalance, and that applies to work to life, to everything

There now and now I happen to have whatever twist a personality trace, lead that in non destructive dimensions, including the fact that I am actually now no longer do the ten for plan. I stopped working. I do the casting beneath the alcohol so Nothing in my personality right night, I, whatever metal, After I have of us me, tourist, productive things, non productive things say you're, one of the wealthiest, people in the world was the relations, between wealth and happiness, though ah money and happiness, so I think happiness. Nothing happiness is the thing to strive for if it satisfied is the thing. That's veggie sounds like happiness, but turned down No deeper, so happiness is I walk in the woods at sunset, an ice cream cone, a kiss and the first ice cream. Cone is great. This out thousandth ice cream cone. Not so much at some point. The walks in the woods get boring

This issue to happiness and satisfaction, satisfaction is a deeper er thing which is like having found a purpose and fulfilling it being useful suggest something. For all your days, just as general contentment of of being useful But I fully satisfying my faculties, then I'm fully delivering right. Seven given that I'm not making the world better that I'm contributing to the people around me right and that I can look back. and say while that was hard, but it was worth it. I think generally seem sleep. Better state. Then pursuit of pleasure pursuit of going to court happiness, does money anything to do with that. They think the founders of your founding fathers in the: u s through this off kilter when they use the phrase pursuit of happiness. I think they should have said proceedings that they pursue satisfaction, we might live in a better world better world and that they could have

I have written a lot of things that could have tweaked the second member. I think they were smarter than they said. You know what we're going to make it ambiguous and let these these humans figure out the rest. These tribal cult, like humans, figure out the rest, but money where's that so I think- and I think they are- I mean look I think. To be honest, I don't think I'd be a great example. I think elon would be a great example. This, which is like you know, look he's the guy who, from every every day of his life from the day he started making money at all. He just plows in at the end of the next thing, and- and so I think money is definitely an enabler for satisfaction with money apply to happiness, leads people down very dark paths or destructive avenues of money. Applied to satisfaction, I think, could be, is a real tool and I always look by the way I was like you know, of Elis the case study for behavior with the the thing that has always really made me. Think is Larry Larry page was asked one time when his approach to philanthropy was- and he said- oh I'm just my. My flint philanthropic plan was just give all the money to elon wrote

What makes you ask your body I? What would a year on you interact with quite a lot of successful engineers and business? the leading special body line. Without about each house? What would you do? special about him as a leader and innovator yeah. So the the core of it is he's a he's he's back to the future, so he he is He is doing the most leading edge things in the world, but with an with really deeply all school approach. A fine comparisons to you. I need you to go to like Henry ford, Thomas watson and howard hughes, and and were carnegie right. We were stanford, Jackie, rockefeller right. You need to go to the what we call the bourgeois capitalists like of the hard core business owner operators who basically built you know it s basically built industrial society. Vanderbilt and it's a level of hands on commitments and depth in the business.

Coupled with an absolute priority towards truth and towards the can put science and technology town to first principles. That. just like absolutely does dislike unbelievably athlete he really. His ideal day he's only ever talking to engineers like he does not tolerate bush. He has a lot of bullshit never met. He wants ground truth on every single topic. He runs. His business is directly data day devoted to give it greater than every single topic. So. You think it was a good decision for him to buy twitter. I have developed a view in life. Do not second guess elon musk. I know this is going to sound crazy. I found it, but well I mean he's gotta, quite a track record. I may look. The car was a crazy, I mean the car was, I mean, look tsar, lotta things at sea.

crazy, starting a car company, united states of america. The last time somebody really try to do. That was the nineteen fifties and it was called tucker automotive and it was such a disaster. They made a movie about what a disaster was, and then rockets like who does that like gets? There is obviously no way to start in Iraq. A company like those days are over and then to do this at the same time. So after he pulled those two off like. Look, if I can put it like this one- a virus like out whatever opinions I had about it. That is just like. I can clearly not relevant like this. Is you just at some point you just like on the person in general. I wish more people would lean and celebrating and supporting versus deriding in destroying, oh yeah, I mean look, he drives resentment legacy like he is a magnet for resentment, like his critics, are the most miserable like resentful people of the world, like it's almost a perfect matt.

of like the most idealized in our technologists, you know of the century coupled with like just his critics, are, just bitterest can be made its them in its asserted very darkly comic to watch. Well here he feels the care of there being an ass haunt were at times and which is I say to wash the drama of human civilization, given our called roots just fully on fire is running a cop. Very successfully so now now there are calls have gone and we search for meaning. What do you think is the meaning of this whole thing was the meaning of life more countries, I dont know the us. I think the meaning of of the closest I get through. It is what I said about. Satisfaction so Basically, like ok, we were given what we have like. We should basically do our best was the role of love in that way, I mean like, what's the point of life, if you yeah without love, like so lovers,

part of that should really I looked like you did it taking care of people is like a wonderful thing, like you know, mentality that there are pathological firms are taken care of people, but there is also a very fundamental you no kind of aspects of taking care of people. for example, I happened to be somebody who believes that capitalism and taking care of people are actually the other actually the same thing. Somebody ones Capitalism is how you take your people. You don't now right right. and so like out. I think it's like deeply woven into the whole thing now. There's a lot recession. We had about that, but you are created products that are used by millions of people and bring them join smaller, big ways and the cap, Some kind of enables that encourages that David Friedman says: there's only three ways to get somebody to do something for somebody else: love money in force. Love and money are better the amorous that's a good During that period advantage, and we should build on those trial of first, if that, doesn't work the money and force while billion try thou in

my gear, incredible person been a huge fan, I'm glad. Finally, it s a thought of offensive everything you do everything you doing. Putting on twitter is a huge honor to meet you to talk with you thanks again for dunes awesome. Fabulous thanks for listening to this conversation with marc andreessen, to support this podcast. Please check out our sponsors in the description and now let me leave you some worth mark Andreasen himself. The world is a very valuable place, If you know what you want and you go for it with maximum managing and drive and passion the world, often weak The figure itself around you much more quickly and easily than you would think. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.