While general election polling often shows Joe Biden leading the president by margins of 10 points and with substantial leads in some key battleground states, is the race actually much closer? The panel discusses.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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can do and should do with regard to political campaign, but I can read eight my statement that when you have congregate settings of a lot of people together closely packed most are not wearing masked that is risk situation to be avoided, Doktor Anthony She continues to sound the alarm. President Trump continues not to listen. Last night was day four of his post covert tour to battle group states and other pact rally with no social distancing and few masks good morning I'll come to morning Joe. It is Thursday October fifteenth along with Joe Willie, and me we have. Why has reporter for the Associated Press, Jonathan Le Maire, washing tonight therefore BBC World NEWS America Caddy K good to have you on and take were grabbing Casey for
a conversation case. I heard what you said at the end of way too early about the warning from the Biden Camp and it is that it is an important warning with nineteen days to go, we're going to show some polls that show Joe Biden for far ahead. But if you talk to the Biden people they do It's much closer, there's a great article this morning and the times by Tom Settel, and he brings up he talks about how much closer this race could be? First them There are a lot of white voters with outcome degrees who are who are registering, who in vote thousand twenty sixteen and also What state watchman's data in Florida since the states March Primary one hundred ninety five thousand Republicans have been added to the rules. Only ninety eight thousand Democrats in Pennsylvania since June Republicans, plus one hundred and thirty five thousand Democrats. Only fifty
seven thousand in North Carolina since March. Republicans up eighty three thousand Democrats, only thirty and thousand is the exception where Democrats are out performing Republicans, but he lays out quite a few the points that should give a lot of Democrats reasons the worry with nineteen days to go and to stop them from being is complacent, as they were four years ago, when we can I and Willie, and others would be ill, that for simply suggesting that Donald Trump could be elected present the United States and two hundred. Seventy liked robots. I remember being laughed at Joe when I said on on this very program that when I was covering Hillary Clinton campaign in the final weeks that it didn't feel like a winning I mean the her staffers laughed at me as it turns out. That was exactly what was happening, and you know I think it's a combination of things and in your right to pay
to these signs that are under the right arm, and that is what happened in twenty sixteen. There was a lot going on under the radar that the people missed are some signs that there is more potential Republican, strengthened, perhaps as being accounted for. There is also this question about people potentially getting complacent. This is option that everything is fine? I don't need to vote now. I think major differences are living lives where everything is very much not fine. This is not a situation where it's been eight years of a democratic administration, a status quo, an economy, that's growing right, people are suffering and heard. So. I think that potentially is different, but General Mally Dylan, who gotten a lot of credit for making a very strong run on Joe Biden behalf at people's people, like her people, think she's doing good job. That warning, I think, very simple and also really telling when the reality, as we still are basically a fifty fifty country, Donald Trump, can't get to fifty percent. Then obviously, he's got
a real challenge actually pulling this out. But actually considering how many completely unpredictable things have happened in the year. Twenty. Twenty, it seems A warning Venice is pretty relevant right about now. Just nineteen days out, it certainly does. Thank you so much for sick around case. We appreciated- and you know really after the against. We saw from the Democrats and yes from the mainstream media four years ago, if you even suggested that Donald Trump might get to two hundred and seventy electoral votes, complete arrogance and a complete mocking a two it certainly. This serves as a reminder and sort of a packet of coal. Ice water over everybody's That saying this raises over that we still have a way to go and so also quotes a democratic strategists who closely following data data Day and he wrote in a privately July did newsletter. That's got a hold of quote since last.
The share of White Non College over thirty registration in the battleground states has increased by ten points compared to September. Twenty. Sixteen and democratic margins have dropped. Ten points to just six points our serious signs of political engagement by why nine college voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections. All of this bad news for my crabs and something that may be happening under the radar I deuce just just to be even handed here. also says, for instance, divide maybe losing support among his spine. Voters and way Hillary Clinton deadened, but that's more than offset by the number of white Catholics better, breaking his way and other demographic groups that are actually breaking back, binds way that weren't with him and to
in sixteen. So this is not to say Joe Biden going to lose but add so up up a lot of great points to suggest what Joe Biden campaign manager said last night, this race, lot closer than people on Twitter think it is, and if you ve talked of people, I've at least I have on both sides. They will tell you that this is an race of seven. Ten twelve points in this. States, its wine, too maybe four in Michigan, maybe four in Wisconsin, maybe three four in Penn, Sylvania, maybe two in North Carolina. It is time and any shared dramatic shift in the next two weeks towards Donald Trump makes it a toss up action, no quest about it, and I heard exactly what you're describing yesterday from the Biden campaign specifically about. I Q pull out of George that had seven points. This person said there is
salute leave no way on earth. We're up seven points in the state of Georgia, so I think to me: that's the difference right there, which is that Four years ago there was in fact some complacency. There was this feeling that really Donald rolling their eyes. The game show host is going to become the president. You don't pick up any of that right now from the fighting campaign, in fact, I think they wish at this point that some of these pulls weren't public. So voters didn't begin to become complacent about this. The other difference is besides the campaign not being complacent is we've had now four years of Donald Trump, President, four years ago, at this moment there was this theoretical president of Donald Trump, what he could be. Maybe you could be a disruptor. Maybe you could be that boardroom guy who can make deals we've seen what his presidency has wrought, look at where we are right now in terms of corona virus. In terms of everything else, that's happened over four years. Voters I have a view of what Donald Trump as president, really
Jonathan Lamir. I know you ve been covering some of this in the state of Pennsylvania in terms of voter registration. Does this time speech this morning follow with what you're, seeing in terms of more Republicans, ready during right. Now. These are the data points that trunk campaign has been pointing to for a while. I let's be clear that search the white working class. None College dedicated voter who hasn't noted in the past, with indicated, they're gonna vote now, that's who they ve been after this whole time, and they have been say- and they do have and had a significant field operation. They have a far at this point greater ground game than the Democrats have, and it's been in place for a lot longer. You know, of course, he's running for election clue, Donald Trump declared he was running. For a second term on his
inauguration day and efforts began soon. Thereafter. They have recognized that that's what they need. This time as much as the demographic shifts of the country, maybe we're breaking away from him writ large. They feel like there are more voters to be had voters who didn't turn out in two thousand and sixteen now, it's very hard and very expensive to find low, propensity voters or non voters and get them to come out this time around, but they feel like they can a briefing with reporters earlier this week. They point to exactly this: the increase in GOP registrations. In some of the key Battleground Pennsylvania chief among them, but also places like Florida and North Carolina and they feel, according to what they've talked to people who registered to vote for the first time, tend also to vote that time around in that election, having just registered a few weeks before so that is what their pointing to as well as, as they always say, signs of enthusiasm like they did the unbelievable yard science. You see for trump comparatively few dividing, certainly the rallies and look that's a deliberate choice, the binding campaigners at hearing
Cove guidelines they're. Having smaller events that are socially distance, they're trying to say, not only are they being responsible, they're trying to send a message? That's how things should be done. The trump campaign we again last night with a massive Rallen Demoin Iowa they're, not doing that they want The images of the big crowds, a few of them are in masks there's little to no social distancing. So these are the markers the Trump campaign is excited about. They feel like this is a close race. I've talked to strategist on both sides like Joe said, who said in most of these battleground states, don't believe that its eight nine or ten points that were seeing these poles. It's much warlike one. Two three four but of course, are a little bit of cold water on the trump enthusiasm this morning to they are also having to play real defense, we're nineteen days out and yes, they're spending a lot of time in places like Pennsylvania and Florida going to was constant this weekend that his staff has said that as of next week, have two three rallies a day, but he's also he had to go to Iowa last night, a state he won handling in two thousand and sixteen he's got to go to Joe
Georgia later this weekend- and we may not quite believe that C poll, but that race there is tight as well he's having to spend money, he's having to spend his most valuable asset his time in places that he didn't think he'd have to a few months ago and every time he goes to Georgia. That's a time he can't go to Pennsylvania all right. So then, to one more point. On this conversation, Which is important to have, and if you look at those crowds, these rally what he loves to do and the other day I thought. Maybe there was a thousand people in one of the crowds. It was seven I wasn't so these rallies in the middle of a pandemic are bringing a turn that is pretty impressive and Joe as we discuss for there was one day one four years ago that brought it altogether for tromp that it all came together for him and even he was surprised when he won. The presidency of the night states, but to Willis Point where He said the inner voters have had a view now of what his President
is like what is. Policies are like what is? Decisions are like. I would argue that Trump voters actually don't have that view. They don't have a clear view. They don't have the facts. I think there are certain networks and Facebook and social media empires that are helping We'll get lies that they live by and I think that could be a dangerous brew as we, you know, talk about the potential for Biden to struggle a bed or for one day to come together for him all over again? What could happen for trump? It could happen, and I mean he told me he said I could have had the election on ten days and I would would would have only wanted one out of ten days. That happened to be the one day where it fell just right for me, but but it's not just the misinformation, is being spread on other networks and on social me that is part of it
you also, though, cannot underestimate and Rachel by cover talks about this. All the time negative partisanship, I've heard from so many of my friends and family members who don't say they love Donald Trump, in fact, They don't say they like Donald Trump. In fact, they would not invite him over for dinner at Thanksgiving, and if their kids acted like him, the kids will get it is rather kids would be grounded it is. It is so it's anti it's really its negative partisanship. It's their fear of the Democrats, it's their fear of woke nation. It's their fear the kids are going to go to college and get abused bid for get hammered because of political courage. No he's using. You can't even say that on television without people, freaking
out, no white kids are that I'm just explaining it to you. Political correctness is something that that is not So can it drives so much of Donald Trump supporter? How do I know because I keep hearing it from one percent after another? When I say how can you support or this man who was breached every cause the two original nor his breezed every political norm whose breached every societal norm and they will come back and talk about how Democrats are socialists? They'll, come back, they'll talk about political correctness, they'll come back they'll talk about wokeness, it is that's it's that negative partisanship even then. It is Donald Trump Wanna sales are really quickly that, when I talked to the trunk campaign, and sat down about a year ago, but a year and a half ago, and I get a run through of their theory of the
is on why they were going to win. Their focus was pulling out Non college white voters and they were focusing on it. Man they would hold rallies, they would get data, they would try, people geotagging, they would follow those people. They would find the people that did not that weren't registered to vote that had never voted before and they would do an all allout political assault on them to get them registered and get them out to the polls and that's exactly what we're starting to see right now, of course, into the conversation when I get this x ordinary song and dance which actually, actually, I believed about, how they were doing all these things and using this technology the person, I was talking to said well, of course, this will help us if it's a one hour to point margin.
But this person even now said if it's five points one way or the other, it won't make a difference. So I guess That's the question: if it's a close race, all of these things that Trump has been doing for four years, that his team's been doing for four years, but starting to see in these numbers will make a difference. If it's a blowout, then then all get out the vote, operations that you ve been doing for four years won't make a difference: cattle well, I've got to say, but we're about to go to poles now, but this sort of a good reset. With everybody talking about how Joe Biden's going going to win, I where the trunk campaign, the thing I would be during the most is just sheer, exhaustion fearing that people would do what I did when I was in the state of Connecticut and when did the voting both for years ago cousin. how to get, I knew Hilary was guy. When I look Hilary and is a lifelong republic, and I said I don't think I vote for her. Then I'll
it trumps name- and I said I know him. I know I can't vote for him. And then I wrote in JEB Bush this exhausted by it, and that was four years ago, and I walked The voting booth. I know a lot of other people it at that, but for, years later, how many evangelicals, who say they support Donald Trump are going to go into the voting both and look at Donald Trump name there and say I just can't do it. I'm not voting for Joe Biden, but I can't vote for Donald Trump, how many business people who look at their you know stock Well, I can go I've done really well. I just listen to this guy screaming for four more years. I need some peace. This kind he's been ripped apart there be my biggest concern the
under vote, that Donald Trump may get from people who are just exhausted by this going on day after day after day yeah, I thought Yan financial peace was really interesting. Have started to hear those stories of whatever it is: two million Non college white voters in pencil if you didn't boat and twenty sixteen who was there, and that is why the trunk campaign keeps playing to the base, but the more the trunk campaign place to the base, the more he increases. exhaustion level around the rest of the country right. It's a suitable to choose you do a base pay which is red meat, which is constant drama, which is what the people turning up with rallies, like like the show Donald Trump likes the show, but the people go to the rally. like the show too, and they like the kind of sense of the chaos in the fact that the president is doing something differently. That's why they elected it elected him members. He said earlier on not to be nice, to make people like him, but to throw things up in the AIR
but everything up in the air area also has a level of exhaustion around it. On top of the character of the president who creates exhaustion because he likes to have drama all around him and so by playing to the base you potentially alienate other people. If they are right that there are enough people out there that they can just about expand the pool to make the electoral college map work for them, then the base play may have been the right strategy. for them and actually looking at President Trump. I'm not sure there was another play, I'm not sure he was ever a president who could reach the middle and a more sober, careful moderated way, because that's not who he is so it would have lasted a week or two, but it was never can last very long. So that's why they left the beef ban. Hope but these numbers are right that there are enough white, Non College, educated voters who still out there who didn't Berlusconi. So, let's take a look
The state of this re, some new, battleground state polling. We ve been talking about here this morning in New Hampshire, the latest Boston Globe, Suffolk University poll shows Joe Biden Holy Ten point led in the state fifty one to forty one in Georgia that point I mentioned a minute ago. The latest Quinnipiac University poll shows Joe Biden ahead by seven point. fifty one to forty four in North Carolina. It is now our time Sienna College pull as the two candidates in a statistical tie with Joe Biden it forty six percent president trumpet forty two percent in the state Ohio, the Quinnipiac poll shows another statistical tie with Joe Biden at forty eight percent Donald Trump at forty seven. The latest NBC News Wall Street Journal Poll gives Joe Biden and eleven point lead nationally among registered voters. That's fifty three to forty two percent. Vice President Biden leads Eighty seven points among black voters by thirty six points among latino voters by twenty six points among women by twenty three point
among voters under the age of thirty four by nineteen, Wade's among White College, educated voters and by ten points, among senior citizens, the president. He leads here twenty one points among white voters without a college degree by five among men and by four or among white voters. So Joe as we talk about all these in total and as you are, discussing? The Trump campaign wants to get out those voters get out that base White Non college. Even if they do that, look what it's coming expensive. The senior voters again in this this NBC Paul he's down by ten points. Trailing heavily in places where he one last time. It will be very difficult for him. wind down ten points among seniors in getting clobbered among women, particularly among suburban women. Why it's a thing, you're right, there's, always a trade off, and we talked about it for a couple of years for every non com educated white voter, that he gets he's turning
office, suburban voter and the suburb? the Atlanta for for every non college educated. White voter. He gets by by saying something that others would consider outrageous. if you're, just generalizing, these Paul numbers, he loses senior citizens for every super spreader event here is a senior citizen in the suburbs of Atlanta and that Willy is problem you take a state like Georgia. I don't think it's seven points, but I'll tell you what I haven't seen a poll with Donald Trump ahead in Georgia. For a couple of months it's been tied, he's been up one. Our Biden's been up one binds went up to that is that state is dead and the reason why is Democrats used to live women ladder Republic I would always win in the suburbs of land and then we would win. Obviously, The rural ports- that's not the case anymore. Now it's Atlanta
versus the rest of the state, because the Atlanta suburbs are breaking democratic because of Donald Trump in other areas are breaking. That way as well, and I want to say this to too, when I talked really about that Conversation I had with a Trump strategist: couple years ago. He said he would bet me any amount of money that Donald Trump would be sitting at fifteen twenty percent among black voters. I said I'll take that back right now, he's at four percent on the poll that came out last night, Hispanics. We also word how he was going to over perform with Hispanics right now, this false I'm sitting about twenty six percent among Hispanics is getting a lot better than that. The wind George Bush, I think, ended up at forty two, forty three, forty four percent back in two thousand for so these aren't numbers of a winning candidate and meek and North Carolina tale at North Carolina, reminds me of I remember back in two thousand
twelve cheering for Mitt, Romney and looking at Ohio every day and one pull after another at Obama. Up to a bomb of three Obama, for Obama up up three, it was stubborn for months Obama Hell, two three four point laden with so frustrating: that's what tromp people have to be thinking They see those North Carolina now bars buying This hell, they stubborn two three four point laid throughout the campaign. It forgot to end. You know it's a rocky road for four Biden, as he's dealing with not just trump and all the energy that he sucks out of a room but the Disan. For me, campaign out there are the Facebook Fox effect there. Disinformation online, there's actual lies online about the corona virus about a pandemic, and you could watch
a certain cable network that I just mentioned for an hour in forty five minutes and not hear stories like this and instead maybe get to a segment about a vaccine that is coming. Here's the news on the virus in this country, corona, virus cases and hospitalizations, are searching at an alarming rate in parts of the country and has we had two colder months, the nations top public health expert, Doktor Anthony vowed. She is warning that Americans should double down on efforts to contain the virus. What we are seeing, unfortunately, is optics in case positivity test pause that's going to translate, as it already is into in additional hospitalizations, which which ultimately gonna translate into additional debts and now is to see, as you said correctly, an uptick in cases
in thirty seven states. I mean that is a substantial proportion of the United States. America. That is not a good sign. As your entering into the cooler so what we really have to do is. well down on the things that I talk about, every Single Day the five issues. universal wearing of masks, keeping a distance avoid crowds in congregate. Settings trying to do things outdoors preferentially over indoors and washing your hands frequently. They sound very simple, but people are not doing that and that's the reason why we are seeing the uptake and cases on bridge over fifty thousand new covert. Nineteen cases are being reported in the: U S every day, a martini and has not seen since mid as most of the current outbreaks are in the west and the northern plains like I'll
which is seeing and uptick in cases in hospitalizations and reported the new high for the second straight day. The latest report confirms nearly one twelve hundred new cases. Yesterday, a loving people with covert nineteen were confirmed dead, bringing the deaths Above fifteen hundred Whitehouse Corona virus exports have urged. I was social gathering euros, the White House the white houses and what have they done? They there saying limit your social gatherings to twenty five people. The White House Otis. The white out again landed only arises down. Keziah friends said that the job do we need to call her friends at Java Joes and tell them to spread the word. So, if you're an Why? The white House? Donald Trump swayed else's telling you please for your own safety for this of your loved ones for their sake. de of senior citizens for their safety,
their children who have underlying conditions, please, whatever you do limit. The crowd size of anything you do too. the five and I were ok to just said just twenty four I dont know where that is Mika, but where are those people are, thank God they're, not in Iowa Iowa, what so. That is why I went along, but and the white this it's the way hold, but I'm not good math. But it's a lot more than twenty five people, so you're saying that Donald Trump's White House warned people because there's an outbreak in Iowa people are dying, then people are dying to limit the number of people that get together to twenty five right yeah, and do you think that I just want to I want to focus on the information that these people are getting, and I really want them to get the facts and now
were given to rise. Outset rests with Gay Mitchell right now. Thousands of people, the pact shoulder to shoulder on the tarmac at an airport in into mine host. If you don't know this, but I it to I didn't but you know you know it's a little tough and you have a temperature, do not feel good scary apart, as you know, where you're going fine, you're at one one or one or two, and then you say that I love this. You haven't had a temperature years and then all over you have it, but you see what happens to people I still think is exerting is fascinating, that the people behind him afterwards mask, but the people out the audience don't wear masks the other doctors. Secondly, Jonathan Wellmere: what does it? I guess this is a rhetorical question, but to people the tromp administration not realise that if there are outbreaks
Wisconsin and they're having to build field hospitals and there are outbreak since I was so much so that the White House top jobs. Why does it saying no more than twenty five people to get it does not realize that when those images are, spread around Iowa and Wisconsin. He said bring the hell out of senior citizens and losing votes. That has been the conundrum from the getting as much as the White House is trying to project the sense of normal see. The sense of the nation is turning a corner on the pandemic. The president said so again, last night, five and, of course, in the face of reality that they want those images, whether the pact's why our soft law or these pact rallies, including in states that are having we'll surges of the virus, including Iowa, including Wisconsin. This weekend, where he's going, and yet that's just it as much as they're trying to project the sense of strength and normal seem everything's gonna, be all the better
they're, scaring people and it's the erosion and their supportive seniors. That is a real issue here, and we've walked through some of the reasons why this morning, why they still feel like they're in the game. They still feel like this is a tightening race and both sides anticipate that it will tighter still between now and election day, but he is lost significantly the sport of seizures of group that he won by Believe nine point, you're more last time round twenty sixty and that may be the margin in a handful of super vital states, most of all Florida state where we're going to have some results pretty early on election night estate that, if it breaks by his way and breaks by the way, hard may prevent the one thing that may prevent weeks of of lawsuits in league, challenges in electoral uncertainty and binding and his team, no
and they observed in on a series of floor. That's what Joe Biden was earlier. This week in Pembroke Pines Florida with an event geared towards years with a powerful message, basically saying that you haven't been able to see your grand kids in nearly a year now, because the failed policies of this in the distribution when dealing with the pandemic and when they see these images? The bidens can't believes the Trump on his own worst enemy. Here, when he's out there gathering huge amounts of people together, most of them without masks and downplaying a threat to the virus, in his own diagnosis, almost laughing it off now suggesting that he's recovered in fighting glove. Everyone in the audience to show that he's immune. That's not how works for life. senior. Don't have access to the same sort of state of the art, medical treatment, seniors, who are still very scared and now don't feel like they can support Donald Trump and of course we get you look those pictures there, a lot of young people and not in so it can be fine, but guess why their passive years. Okay, there they may be asymptomatic carriers, they take it home, they give it to their parents.
To the grandparents and their grandparents up in the emergency joining us now to rob Davidson he's an emergency position who serves in small communities across West Michigan and the executive director of the committee to protect Medicare doktor. Thank you being on guess? First of all, can you get corona virus at a gathering like the one we just saw, and if you could describe the struggle since you ve Some of these patients in the final weeks and days of a corona is patients, life yeah. Events like that are terrifying to me, real gut punch, you're, just just going room the room putting on your n ninety five mask putting on your gown and then see president, literally as a super spreader, and it's watching people with Pronto virus, I'm one of the worst things you can hear when you go in a room as I can't breathe, or watching someone struggle to breathe throughout my twenty year career. It just sets off a lot,
Belle says a position, and you see these folks. Looking at you, you now almost with tears coming down there face wondering you know am I going to am I going to have to be intubated? Am I going to be one of the one of the people who died, or am I going to pull through this and when I see them in the emergency department, I can't tell them they answered, that then I can only do everything possible and support them and and hope that they come through doktor Davidson resuming case spikes. In thirty seven states Wisconsin setting up field hospitals the present, be there on Saturday, he'll also be in your state of Michigan, where you work in practice. Your recommendation to people thinking about going to a big rally in the state of Michigan like the ones we ve seen over the last few days but he's having in Michigan is, is about thirty miles from my hospital about fifty miles from my home and terrified my pony
County voted for a trump about two thirds ethnic, seventy percent and twenty. Sixteen I guarantee people from my country will be there and I've been serving displaced nearly twenty years, I love these people. I care about them, and yet, I know they will be showing up or two to three weeks down. There I will say case is going up specifically because of the event on Saturday Catty Kay, so we've seen in Europe a whole new wave of lockdowns President Macron France amounts nine cities in France, they're going to have a curfew from nine pm to six a m, including Paris they've seen in the Netherlands, they're happening in Germany, they're happening all over the continent in the UK as well. Are they just two or three weeks ahead of where some areas of the United States are because their winter is now starting to hidden? People are moving on board inevitable. We're just gonna be following that trajectory do think its inevitable, but they have responsible
leaders, so they will actually try to do something about this gear. In Michigan we have a Senate majority later might Shorty. Who is immoral They heard immunity. Like the White House. We have a supreme court who took away emergency our summer governor analysing urging her to liberate as Donald Trump dead when we had our pig in April and were now nearing that takes our farm beyond terrified, because we don't have the ability to respond in this country, bigger because of political leaders. Doktor Robin Thank you very, very much for being on the show this morning and still I had on morning Joe and unmask Ing probe. Commissioner, I turn on hospital bar where all of ETA masking goods remember like observed them in that light, sounds like rush Lamborn every that's really bad! No! No! No! No! This is gonna, be the one in Susan Rice's, email, Willie. It He seldom is smoking gun. You know. I'm a lawyer where there's
tell a document where there's a smoking gun that was as as damning as Susan while saying Resin says: let's play this one by the book. Would have opened twelve investigations, not just one. That's been God's square, can you believe she dared to say, let's play this one by the book, I mean as bad as that will I can't wait here who's going to jail for this. Why don't want to give up to Julie angels reporting on this, but it appears is that the alleged scandal that's been trumpeted for the last couple of years was an absolute nothing burger NBC. July, is going to join us with her new reporting plus Member of the Judiciary Committee, Dick Durban, One way is really not now. How how could they just brush aside win, win, win an Diane
trappers, had been saying. For six months. They have gimme. That is something that you do not read the Susan Life document. That said, let's play this by the book: did you? How could they we fed decide Willie, I don't understand, and it was investigation initiated by attorney adrenal, William Barr. So it was not exactly a partisan effort by Democrats on this outcome. We'll explain what we're talking about when we come up to a distraction and outcome more than seven, five percent of identities are victims who had accounts open in their name, did not find out there. been victimized from their bank or credit card company. What you can't see can hurt. You don't be one of the seventy five percent check more places. Identity cept could be hiding, get lifelong identity theft, protection. Lifelong see, certain
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Entry offers an unprecedented look behind the scenes at two of the most iconic precedents in american history Ronald Reagan with the eyes of we now official Whitehouse photographer PETE Susan Susan was I witness to what it means to be the most powerful person on earth and experience their transformed him from a photo journalists to a searing commentator and activist on the issues we face. Is that country today way. I see it is your behind the scenes all access pass to the highest office in the land through them. Of a man who captured it all watch the teller premiere of the way I see it commercial free tonight at and p M Eastern on MSNBC busy news is reporting that the federal prosecutor appointed by Attorney General Bill BAR to probe the on masking a former Trump campaign of nationals. Michael Lynne has not found any
wrong doing according to a source with direct knowledge of the pro, but one of the key figures in the investigation. Former CIA director John Brennan told NBC News that he was never interviewed in the code politically motivated probe US attorney, on bash was tat by bar too to gain. Rather Ex Obama officials improperly requested this of an individual, rejected and classified documents. Those requests ended up prevailing identity of former Trump campaign adviser Michael Flynn, who later plug guilty that he lied to the FBI. about his discussions with the russian ambassador to the Us Flynn later withdrew his guilty plea. President Trump yesterday declined to say whether he would keep bar should he went to second term. Bill bar will, he be around in a second term, he had gone away it's too well
to early with only the evidence had. I can tell you I'm not happy. you know that we see this this is really I it is- is an autocrat. It is authoritarian straw, man's approach to law, that you only care about outcomes We're sitting right now, we have always been watching, to the Supreme Court Testify for several days and before she even got up their Donald Trump, sad and TED Crew said we need the add another person, the court so when Donald Trump challenges are heard after the election We will have another justice on our side, will have nine people on the court and in so again,
That's outcome, based law- that's, of course, what Orban does in Hungary? That's what Putin does in Russia? That's what she does in China, of course. What the Saudis do that's what a lot of countries do across the planet. Not us it's never been are archer until Donald Trump and make it there. You have Donald Trump, now being upset at his own henchmen, has breached political norms and shamed himself and his family shamed, everybody that has ever known him and stood spoken out for him bill bar. Has shamed them and now because He won't give Donald Trump, the result, said he wants now he's going to be welcome back in a second tromp administration. Its tells you again
what you ve always known about Donald Trump, our Brain NBC News, corresponding Julie Ancillae has been following this Julia. What standing out for you now about what appears to be a complete time and also a distraction. Well, I mean just absolutely right for the president, This was something as well as the John Durham Investigation that he had put a lot of stock in weight, for the election, the hoping that he would get results that looked politically damaging to the. I'm administration before his election and now With this news that John Bashful? U S attorney, who just left the western district of Texas. She was in charge of this amassing investigation news that there will not be any criminal charges and there will not be a report and we know the John Durham Investigation is not likely to come up with a report or release its.
things in any way before the election. It looks like these efforts to try to get something out before the election of fallen flat What's more, I think the most interesting thing that my colleague can delay name and I found what we were doing- are investing should on what happened to this investigation is the fact that it never even got to the level of interviewing people like John Brennan who key players. These are the names of the people who were on the list who had twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen, for the unmasked king of individual, whose name had been left. out of intelligence reports who turned out to be Michael the incoming National security advisor and said these are people like James Clapper, like Vice President Joe Biden Like Susan Rice like Jim Comey. These were all of the people whose names we hear a lot from the president who he expected might be named, might be implicated and the sun masking investigation, and instead we find out they didn't even interview some of these key players and if you talk to people who do these investigations about
They would an interview them. We shouldn't assume that it's because they didn't feel like they didn't have time it's because they had done enough investigations enough document collecting enough work around it that they found they really didn't meat. In our view, these people, because they already knew they had and a big piece of that is. It wasn't clear what the crime was, that they were looking for in the first place. There is nothing in appropriate about asked for unmasking? It happens all the time and they're within their authority to do it so Julie. Obviously, a General bar initiated this investigation to please President tromp. Now with the outcome of the investigation, he is displeased President Trump, as we just heard in that sound bite, he wouldn't commit to bring him back now for a second term. Because of what they found here, what they didn't find so will, Ernie general bar accept this report, or does he want?
dig further into this to police the president, hey everyone, it's Chris Hayes these days. I find it helpful to just take a step back from the day to day onslaught of news and take a broader look at the issues I haven't had time to cover on my tv show, all in everything, from the legacy of racism in America to how community and creativity can flourish and it's to pandemic to how Democrats could win and deep Red America. I do it each week on my podcast. Why is this happening and I'm joined by uniquely qualified guests like Pulitzer Prize Winning reporter Nicole Hannah Jones? Progress does not mean justice or quality, or that we are right after four hundred years of black people being in this country, the type or marketing incremental progress and pat ourselves on the back, for that has been long over author Rebecca some? How do we take care of each other in the context of not being able to physically be with each other in ordinary ways? Crooked media is John Fabro. It's going to be the highest turnout election in history, which means that it is a persuasion, game and many others who help me make sense of what's happening in our society and our world.
Really enjoy our conversations. I hope you will too so join me for new episodes every Tuesday just search for. Why is this happening wherever you're listening right now and subscribe? You know it doesn't seem that it's up to him right now I mean he already took this extra step of taking. This piece is unmask in question away: from John Durham and giving it its own investigation and since just the public comments from his spokesperson from Toolbar himself when he testified before Congress in July. The public comments that this unmask investigation was happening anyway, was already weighing a political favour for the president, probably knowing full well. It wasn't really clear what the criminal wrong doing would have been for John Bash to find so it seems that the body, when a step beyond what most attorney general's were duty even start this masking investigation and then talk about a publicly but you're right. I mean that the president will be pleased that there wasn't anything
to find there, but I think for most people who understand the Justice Department or the law, it's not surprising, and Missus Julia enslaved. Thank you very much for coming on this morning and we're learning more about the Trump administrations efforts to publicly downplay the corona virus while privately warning Wall Street Elite about the impending impact on February twenty fourth Trump tweeted about the worsening epidemic, claiming that the virus was quote very much under control his words while touting the strength of the stock market. Meanwhile, on on that, everyday senior members of the President's economic team were less confident speaking to board members of the conservative Hoover institution a court and the New York Times a senior economic adviser, told the president that the group, the president, told the group that he could not yet estimate the effects of the fire?
rests on the american economy. Meanwhile National Economic Council, director Larry could low echo to similar sentiment according to a document describing the meetings which was obtained by the times. Kudlow asserted asserted that the virus was contained in the. U S to date, but now we just don't know. The document which was written by a hedge fund consultant at the event was widely dispersed through Wall Street, as markets began to tank, and news has not obtained or viewed the document in question. The reaction of one investor who read it was quote short everything a term for betting, that the stock prices of companies which soon fall, and they did joining us now. Former treachery official and mourning Joe Economic Analyse, Deep, Ratner and business MR at New York magazine
oh Barrow, he has a new piece out. Titled Wall Street got what had wanted from Trump and is ready. For by four jobs, watered especially get what they wanted for Trump, if you look it Donald Trump and left cod low, saying, thing to the american public, which is the virus, is completely contained, but sending signal Still there most loyal investors, hey we're we're we're heading into some really rough waters, your time to dump the stock? Well, I mean I, I would note this was a few days after the market had really started that it goes further than a big crowd of irish voters.
In February. So I think it was more the way I read this story was that the private comments were more spooked in these meetings. Public comments were, but you really would have needed the heads up a week or two earlier than this, for it to have been this especially useful in terms of information where I think Wall Street got would've wanted from the president was during the first three years of his permit, particularly with the corporate income tax cut, much of which, I think will likely survive even if Democrats, take control of government again, so that's an enormous windfall the owners of stock. They get to deport the profits from companies and they would have if we hadn't produced corporate income tax like that, and that was a reason that investors might have wanted a republic government last several decades. As you add these big corporate income tax cuts in our fee countries,
all over Europe, cutting corporating taxes. We had a higher rate than they did, but now they have that deliverable and they can look at Joe Biden and there won't be a sufficient fiscal stimulus if Trump wins this election again. I think they're worried about the chaos that they're worried about situations the frame for so they can have that stability, while still having at least some degree of favorable tax policy not out by them so Souci Ratner. Can you think of instances where The White House is said. One thing publicly said another thing: privately telling investors everything was going to be okay but private, or telling the public everything's gonna be ok, but privately, Favorite investors that they really have no idea whether they're going to be able to contain a something like this prices. That would have such an impact on the markets.
certainly say that when I worked in the Obama White House during the early days of the financial crisis, to the best of my knowledge, we never did Anything like this. We were very careful that anything that we said publicly conform to we thought privately and vice versa- certainly no special treatment for special interest groups. So now this is, I can't think of another instance like this in my memory anyway- and I think it's emblematic of the Trump administration which does live in the swamp and where the swamp creatures get favorite, access, favour, treatment and, frankly, what this close to being inside information in order to help them make money in their private markets, so Judge really through your piece I reminded reminded of something heard from a lot of people who have money? spite everything they have seen from President Trump of the last three, an app say, but my taxes, but my money and, as you point out the peace theirs
by buying into a caricature of Joe Biden put up by the Trump campaign, which is that he is Bernie Sanders that he is a sea or whoever else they want to associate with them. But the reality is he's not even proposing that much of a change in that corporate tax got as I write well It's a material change. I think that the difference between Bernie Sanders and go bid in its way that the Trump has been portraying them is that Joe Biden is not post middle class tax increase. He would keep the parts of the Trump tax cut that applied to household make less than four hundred thousand dollars a year, and so, when you see these plans about a typical family is going to pay an extra two thousand dollars a year. That part is not true. There would, in Joe Biden Plan, be a significant tax increase so with very high something on corporation from tax plan. Have the corporate income tax rate from all the way down to he would go back to? He would also increase tax.
You pay on capital gains. If you make a very high, they make more than a million dollars a year. So for some of these Wall Street investors, especially ones with a lot of money, they will face a higher tax burden under Joe Biden, its way on tax policy, which I think what is the reason that it's so interesting that the market seems unreturned by the idea. That Biden will win, in fact, arguably seems to prefer a bid and win, and I think the idea there is There are ways the Joe Biden will manage the economy be better than I would, particularly by it. doing that. We have adequate economic stimulus to deal with the front virus prices and, frankly, that we have an adequate policy deal with front as the run a virus price death, so the economy can get back to normal more quickly. The market seems more focused on that than the very real likelihood that certain high income people in certain corporations would end up paying. So so right. Here, let's get to some of your charts about the impact, the potential impact of a Joe Biden presidency on the economy. Would you look at it, so gave me a great leader and because it is in fact true that in the
a little bit of man Bites dog and the little country to certainly my experience on Wall Street. There is a rising amount of belief on Wall Street. That abiden presidency would actually be better for the economy and therefore, perhaps for the stock market, then are true presidency, and so you can look at one report, Moody's analytics that we can put up on the screen that shows what happen under various scenarios, and you can see all the way on the left. The dark, blue bar is what happens if the Democrats sweet, not just the White House, but also Senate and retain the house and Moody's projecting four point: two percent: per year over the next four years. from there you go to the next kind of best category, which is Biden, but we don't retain the Senate. Do retain the house three point: five percent. Trump wins the White House, but the Democrats get the Senate three point: two percent and then the worst case in the minds of mood. anyway and other Wall Street Analyse. Is that the Republicans sweep actually have all three houses and that produces the lowest rate
gdp growth, and then you can take a look at jobs and you'll see much and you'll see much the same picture in terms of job creation under the under abide administration verses under a Trump administration on this next chart. This now just on the screen, and you can see that a democratic sweep produces vastly more jobs. Seven point four million jobs to be precise than the worst case of trumpet in the White House and getting here Congress and in fact a bite and present She would bring the number of total jobs back above where it was before in the next couple of years from presidency. What actually never bring not, shouldn't say: never in the course of four years would not bring the number of jobs back to where it was was before, and so that's Wall Street, excited into Josh's point. Yes, there may be higher taxes, but Wall Street believes it will be offset by a steady hand at the tiller by more stimulus by better trade relationships with other cunt,
and then lastly- and this may be surprising to some people- stock market performance under the Democrats has actually been better over at least the last, sixty or so years that it has been under the republican since this chart looks at stockpile performance under every president since Eisenhower, and what you can see is that the Democrats have average nine point: nine percent growth per year. The Republicans have average six point, five, per year. And yes, while its true that Trump, actually as the best stock market of any Republican, his stock market, perform since materially, worse than sock price performance under Obama and under Clinton. So when Trump, sends out tweets saying that a Joe Biden presidency would destroy the stock market. It doesn't comport either with Wall Street is thinking today nor with what has been happening historically or even his own performance, Kadi K jump in here. This is Steve.
Can I drill down a little bit more on the preference of Wall Street between a Biden and the Trump President, because clearly until sort of midway through this year, it looks like They were very keen on having a Trump presidency. Are they just discounting? I think by one estimate that raising corporate taxes from twenty one to ten percent that could decrease corporate profits by twelve percent. Are they just thinking, that's something they can blow and having the stimulus program in January or February that is outweigh long term hike in Taxes- boredom yes, that's right, carry they are I think two things cannot way. Yes, there would be an increase in corporate taxes is Josh said from twenty one to twenty eight percent, but they think it's gonna be outweighed by two things One is the stimulus programme which would make the economy grow fast, generate more profits and in one
all street analysis that I looked at the other day, essentially almost completely offset it. The second thing they think they're going to get are much better trade policies. They think trade policies under Trump. The protection is the trade wars have been very expensive for companies that, therefore, for the stock market, as well as for the American economy, and they think much of that will be unwound- are brought to a better place by Joe Biden and thirdly, Wall Street, like certainty they like ability they like kind of knowing, what's going to happen next, and that is of course the last way you would describe this administration and so I'm not here to tell you that every investor, every person who's got on Wall Street is going to vote for binding for all these reasons, I would say in many years of watching this, I am surprised at how much How much are positive? feeling there is around the possibility of abiding presidency for both the economy and for the stock market. Stephen.
Neuron Josh Barrow. Thank you so much for being on this morning and still ahead supreme more nominee, Amy Coney Barrett signals that Obamacare might be able to survive a challenge from the trumpet minutes senator and judiciary. Committee member Dick Durbin joins us ahead morning, Joe we'll be right back hi everyone. It's joy, reed, I'm so excited to tell you about my new MSNBC show the readout every weeknight. I'm talking with the biggest news makers about the most pressing issues of our time. Like Joe Biden, the words of president matter
and so is present United States? The first thing I want to do stand up and talk sense and be honest with the american people level with them at last mayor casual lance bottom. We need as many voices as we can have as possible sounding the alarm, encouraging people to wear masks and to take all precautions, antibiotics, science and the data Senator Kamel Harris, we send folks into a war wearing camouflaged. So what is going on here when you said camouflaged uniformed officers into a sitting and many more you can listen to the reader as a pod cast by searching for the redoubt. That's our HIV! Oh, you t one word were ever your listing right now and subscribing for free thanks for listening,
Transcript generated on 2020-10-21.