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644: How to Make Accurate Time Estimates - 1 by Steve Pavlina

2017-09-15 | 🔗

Steve Pavlina shares how to make accurate time estimates. This is Part 1 of 2.

Episode 644: How to Make Accurate Time Estimates - 1 by Steve Pavlina (Developing Habits & Personal Growth).

Steve Pavlina is widely recognized as one of the most successful personal development bloggers on the Internet, with his work attracting more than 100 million visits to his website, StevePavlina.com. He has written more than 1300 articles and recorded many audio programs on a broad range of self-help topics, including productivity, relationships, and spirituality. Steve has been quoted as an expert by the New York Times, USA Today, U.S. News & World Report, the Los Angeles Daily News, Self Magazine, The Guardian, and countless other publications. He's also a frequent guest on popular podcasts and radio shows.

The original post is located here: https://www.stevepavlina.com/blog/2008/05/how-to-make-accurate-time-estimates

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
this is optimal living daily episodes six hundred and forty four how to make accurate time estimates part one by steve pavlina of steve in a dot com and i'm just a moloch this is deep armchairs will act as a person narrator for you totally free of charge unless you want to contribute of course i narrate the best blogs on personal development minimalism productivity time management and more in today's articles from steve have lean about making time estimates which is actually a frequently asked questions heard from you in that time measure area before we get into a thank you to talk space for sponsoring this episode talks basis the online there be company that less he choose from over fifteen hundred licence therapists get mash with your perfect there appears to can put you on the path to a happy life for special offer just for you visit talk space dot com slash oh well de announced here to his post
as we optimize your life how to make accurate time estimates part one by sea family of steve pavlovna dark com many people are really bad estimating how much time a task will take property estimate show need about an hour and a really takes you three to four hours to finish or maybe kate thirty minutes for a task you're done in five minutes what can due to get better at making accurate estimates here are several techniques you can use to make better time estimates calculate your fudge ratio s place to start as a measure current estimation accuracy make it to do list of upcoming tasks to complete and shot down in off
of estimate for how long you expect each task to take as you complete each task record the time you actually spent on each one then add up your total time spent in divided by your total time estimate for the collection of tasks that's your fudge show for example if you estimate that a certain list of tasks will take you twelve hours a complete but they really take fifteen hours then your fudge ratio is fifteen divided by twelve which equals one point two five this means it took you twenty five per cent longer than expected to complete the tasks if we measure fudge ratio for a variety of tasks you polly find that for individuals ass you're fucked racial varies tremendously pross ranging as widely as point one to ten however for groups of tasks that collectively require a few days to complete it you notice tat your fudge ratio settles into a fairly narrow range when you average enough tasks your fudge ratio converges on a consistent figure
my average flood ratio is about one point five this means that whenever i make an off the cuff estimate for how long a task will take on average i'm too optimistic to task not taking about fifty percent longer than my initial gas for any particular individual task my estimates may be much more inaccurate however if i estimate at a collection of task will require about two days to complete its safety there are really require about three days once you know your fudge ratio you can use to generate more accurate estimates for groups of tasks just add up you're off the cuff estimates and malta the total by your known fudge ratio this will tend to be it really accurate estimate i tend to be consistently domestic when estimating the time required for certain tasks knowing my ratio has not made my initial estimates more accurate my off the cuff estimates are just as in
accurate as they have always been however when i multiply my estimates by the fudge ratio the estimates come pretty close to the time required this helps me budget my time based on my fudge ratio i know that if i want a complete about eight hours of actual work in a day i shall only list five hours in twenty minutes worth of tasks based on my off the cuff time estimates five hours in twenty minutes equals where's divided by one point five while my some silly to make this kind of compensation every day in practice it works quite well far then the alternative of listing eight hours of tasks and then either pushing myself to workers of our day or feeling that only completed two thirds of my tasks self sabotage to make things even worse when i suppose see now i'm trying to do the impossible is better make a reasonable task list that i can i should complete by the end of the day instead of being myself up
being bad at estimating even if my daily task less seems too short at first glance it feels good across off the final task at the the day due to daily variations this isn't perfectly accurate but overall is better than anything else i've tried added incurred sustainable daily rhythm without overwork or under working i recommend using at least ten and twelve hours of tasks for your initial fudge racial calculation if you base your calculation only a few hours of tasks your vote ratio me i'd be accurate enough of course is a good idea to recalculate your father issue every once in awhile was a quarter should be fine is also wiser update it whenever the nature of your work changes such as when he be a new project or switch companies are careers if you want to get a little more detailed you can calculate different fudge ratios for different kinds of work personally i don't do this but if you think it's likely that different tasks will yield significantly different fudge ratios it may be a good idea
for example if you're student who finds that math homework as a federation of point nine but term papers have a fudge ratio of one point seven you're probably want to maintain separate fudge it shows to create better estimates if you manage a team of people using calculated aunt rachel for each member of your team with or without their knowledge asked for time estimates from each t member for a collection of tasks measure the actual time required and calculate the fudge ratio for each team member whenever you get new time estimates for those team members for upcoming tass you can multiply their estimates by the end of it tool fudge ratios this will help you create a more accurate schedule for team projects i think you'll find that people turn around their estimates in a fairly concern don't manner achieve in a bowl granularity in order accurate estimate is important that you break your task down to them right level of granularity if you trunks are too big you'll overly too many details if you chunks are too small you'll get better
can low level details so he can spend more time estimating a task than it would take to just completed this is too much overhead for example overhaul my website sounds like a complex multi task project this isn't granular enough to make a reliable estimate you'll need to list individual tasks needed to complete this project on the other hand right mailing address on envelope his way to granular you could have completed this task in as much time as it took two listed and estimated this much detail only waste your time instead of making more efficient you should experiment to find them a chunk size we can make the most accurate sms offer a couple pointers is somewhat works well for me though i'm sitting rule my estimates tend to be best for task i can complete in a single sitting in practice this means about two to four hours per chunk when i go less granular than that big trunks i missed too many details and grossly underestimate the time require mike
or granular smaller chunks alice out too many details overestimate how long things will take and always too much i'm creating a managing to do list instead of getting things done compensate for experience if i've completed some are tasks many times before my estimates will tend to be fairly accurate my drop my fudge factor down to one point two or even one point out for example of written seven hundred plus articles some pretty good estimating how long average article will take to write three hours is typical but if i have to do something i've never done before flood ratio of two point zero or higher may be more accurate the less experience i have with the task the higher my fudge ratio needs to be to be continued you do
center part one of the post titled how to make accurate time estimates by steve pavlina of steve pavlina dot com i like that he calls it a fudge ratio because i love fudge while of a little bit of fudge fudge on it so we can be sweetness overload but fudge and ice cream for example oh yeah get a talk space again for keeping the show alive talks base is the online therapy company that makes it easy to connect with an experienced licence therapist that you pick based on your preferences plus a super afforded weigh less than traditional derby and i would know he continues airbus text yo and video messages or even do alive video chat i love those options and talks based airbus are fully licensed to go through a rigorous screening process plus they done thousands of ours of supervised professional training so to match with your perfect their best go to talk space dot com slash old the
the special offer just for you you can use the code old to get thirty yards off your first month all while showing support for this podcast does the code oil and can use at talk space tat calm slash unwieldy i'll give us any short for you have a very happy friday and i'll catch you over the weekend where will continue this post
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Transcript generated on 2020-01-23.