Michael Cohen’s shell company is a revealed to be a massive corruption scheme that involves Donald Trump’s mistresses, Russian oligarchs, and big corporations looking for presidential access. Then CNN’s Harry Enten talks with Jon and Dan about the midterms, Democrats’ chances, and the state of polling.
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
The present exports are pod. Save America is zip recruiter. If you're looking for qualified candidates for business Zapruder is this hypocritical, zip recruit, lost inject a giant use fucking, zip record. I Tommy you want and not about things. I heard
the pool every day as a fat. Twelve euro,
two army- you want another- not about I, if you're looking for qualified candidates for your business, zip recruiter, is the smartest wait, a higher
So we know there are a lot of not smart things going on in the world right now
I would say Michael Cone, calling up Novartis and saying hey, give me cash I'll, give you influence in of artists like hey Buddy, that's the deal, don't say it out loud, your fuck it up for everybody, one million. Thank you! I'd love to play out
a comment here, Michael Novartis: how do you think we should deal with this re importation question Mr Trump american firms
biggest real estate. Mr job, we're gonna go so
go go. It is not smart in the world of hiring. It's not smart deposed to job and hope that the right people see it and apply not smart to do that. It's like pulling a Michael calling. You know how they forgot his line
efficiency. I, like it now and level of beings yet remain at your next line, was a here's hoping of complaint, I'm already bad at it. Look at Us Bank, fully Superman,
while she can't handle the handle. The pressure
for matching technology finds the most qualified candidates for you and invites them to apply. Do your job just matches people who sees that technology match people up at the jobs it so much? I cut to the chase such smarter than Michael COM. Then, as you have you, Applicashens Procureur uses your feedback to continuously learn what you like and get you better and better matching fishing to John I like
like it now, you have about it being streamlined dummy wow. What a streamlined efficiency use you you say I wanted. I need to fill a job
the end is iranian. Routers are the next day. One day later there like hears eighty people that match perfectly for your job. This process is as streamline as the stream that went from the prostitutes trump paid to pee on a bed to the mattress ones and prefer to know that sir, I'm taking all of your advice
trying silly product, I'm selling the shit out of the people loves it
that's what Eddie presented employers or persons who prefer to get quality candy due to cite just one day, see for yourself why the smartest wait higher tried for free today, I'm size are allegedly try for free today, Zip recruited outcomes, I've crooked that
for good or die complex one more time. Oh mister Turkle
Took you to think about dull job. We you gotta, understand he shoots. Hippies guided! Does what he thinks is best. You gotta say you know, look he's not the bullies! Why she did type zero. You gonna give him you just gotta. You got it! You understand he goes.
By instinct, they'll be one billion dollars. Crooked recruited icon such Bergen.
I welcome the pod, save America, I'm John Pharaoh Andean Pfeiffer today and applaud we're Talkin Midterms in Poland, with the whiz kid himself friend of the pod Harriet Enough CNN, also in parts of the world. This week, Tommy talked with Cricket contributor Ben Roads, but
trumps decision to withdraw from the IRAN deal
at recent reports that IRAN deal opponents hired, is really spies to stock man and his family. How about Ireland in I mean what a world we live in there for their who cared not dealing with good people?
still haven't seen Congress take any action on figuring out why IRAN deal opponents hired foreign.
spies to stock Americans.
we're in government think that would be an interesting topic for them to look
Do I don't know why no one's doing anything? I think it's promised parents fire on the country taking thirty million dollar tax rate middle in the middle, the grey areas forgiving financed.
from Sheldon Addison, so he's pretty busy. Yeah he's also our spending a lot of time aiding and abetting Devon. Unicef cover up of trumps crime, so you know, there's only so much so many hours in a day for Poland.
before it everything else or those who some news today came,
earn released three american hostages. Try,
went to greet them in the middle of the night when they came back at Andrews, and then he gave this very bizarre quote:
We want to thank him, John OWN, who was really excellent to these three incredible people. Was he excellent
these people that he kidnapped and then put into forced labour camps for couple years. Four year governments shirt sheriff, you ignore the kidnapping than he was gray. I mean a lot less per se. It is great that super home, whatever every Donald Trump firm sectors it might compared to to do that
kudos to them, who does them? Thank God, they're home than God for their families unambiguously a good thing, there's always getting. I'm not sure Donald Trump needed to give kin jangling sufficed already on Airbus and be at the end of this by Soviet.
Yeah I mean also like acting like this. Is that mean you know thereby
in a strange and secured the release of two hostages from north korean twenty fourteen, no Bill Clinton did before him like this is. This is something that happens came down and has done this before the north korean regime has done this before his release, hostages to Americans. I think that so far you know we said this before it's good, that Donald Trump is going
to talk with Kim Jong diplomacy is good, we believe in diplomacy. We did when we asked me about administration. We do today, but I think it's important to recognise that so far, North Korea has not done anything or taken any steps that it has not taken before in prior administrations and
years so I believe that you know today they announced that died. Donald Trump and Kim Jong will be meeting in Singapore on June twelve. That is the big summit
so you know, hopefully this good outcome there, but the big question
at the heart of all this is still you know will come.
John earn give up his nuclear programme. Has nuclear weapons stop trying to make new
an end and that we don't have any evidence that he'll do that here there? I think. That's exactly right. The fact that this meeting is happening there is plant at least is very good news. I am for diplomacy as the best path to solving this challenge. Those bedeviled presidents of both parties for many years, like you, said, there's a lot of work to do so. Should we keep the Nobel on ice as someone who supports a promise, I would probably prefer that we sent someone
the meeting who can answer the question, how do you get to North Korea from South Korea up, but we don't gotta diplomacy. The present we choose the wheel with presently having s or something. Yet again I mean three hundred plus million people in this country. If you tried to pick one to go to a summit with Kim Jong own to try to achieve world peace and get rid of nuclear weapons,
I think Donald Trump would be at the very bottom of the list after agenda and we hope we will have taken a step back from when we set Dennis Rodman like Mars
Scully Donald to harm, pushes there's not Devon. Newness, maybe
Would you say yea, West or Donald Trump, probably canoeist, probably continuity as to its close call
but anyway, like you said, but we have Donald Trump. So, let's roll the decency what we get. Ok, let's talk about psych about Michael Cohen,
It seems as though the president's lawyer has run a foul of the law it in
yeah, it's amazing. This week we learned that the slush fund he created, so the Donald Trump could pay off. Stormy Daniels had more than one purpose, essential consultants LLC, which I believe is the first time the
central has been used in connection with Michael Cohen, was also used.
Except massive payments from giant tell
companies drug companies in russian oligarchs who wanted access to the President of the United States, just your standard stuff. This information appeared in a detailed seven page document that was posted on twitter by
Stormy Daniels Camera shy lawyer, Michael Avenue, ADI the infirmary,
was later confirmed by multiple news outlets, and we know it's true, because the Treasury Department has launched an investigation into how of a knotty got Cohen's Financial Records Dan
obviously lots to unpack here boy. What was your first reaction to all of this news? My first reaction
Was I had to go home?
insane, I or Tuesday night and like red for two hours to figure out what the fuck happened, because I didn't pay much attention to the needs that day and it's a lot to pick.
I mean really there is so much in there is so much happen.
There is so it there's like the web is so tangled wealth.
bad players. Just stupid
Tivoli crimes crush. It really have to like step back and sort of figured out. That's a couple of things about this one. It is,
pretty clear once again that we are dealing with criminals, but we are not dealing with criminal masterminds, because the whole point of a shell company that Ukraine is to create some distance for yourself. So then you prob
we shouldn't use the same. Shall company you use Azure porn, star, pay off hush slush fund to run your sketch?
pay for play access, selling, consulting business so
rules on the line of flesh runs no double dipping six accurate
This is the same level of lazy. Stupidity, lazy.
We criminality that lead Michael come in to have many burner foe
to could use to make seeker calls and then forget you throw them away so that these other district of New York could seize them. At the end of the day, it is
it's pretty my mother called burner. Phones, Michael column,
this counting getting right here is from the emu.
Can see bonus edition.
Last week's pod that we had to ditch because NBC got the story wrong. So can I get to do only honour jokes thee
I think the other thing here is it
data like Michael trumps,
the result of stone to trumps crimes because, as you sort of dig into this you're dealing with a sort of brings together
rank corruption and pay for play russian oligarchs, providing money. An like this is this is why the Trump his bins, such a lunatic ever since the office, is right, because he knows that all the bodies are buried here yet and so with a hacker.
These are buried here yet little. So, let's unpack always must start with the russian angle. There's an investment firm, called Columbus Nova, which is the american subsidiary of rain over group, which is a russian conglomerate founded by russian oligarch, with close ties to Putin named Victor,
oh Colossal Columbus Nova, also paid Cohen eight installments, totalling five hundred thousand dollars between January and August. Twenty seventeen Ivan Noddy suggested that the money may have helped
In our view, not he suggested that the money may have helped cover the hundred thirty thousand dollars Stormy Daniels payment. We don't know that for sure DIN, Victor VIC Selborne was stopped Adele as airport months ago in question by Robert Mothers investigators. Last month, the Treasury Department place them on a list of Russians who ve been sanction for interfering in our election. Quite a coincidence that he's involved. No, yes, I mean- maybe maybe it's yet another coincidence of Russians who interfere in the election. Having deep personal financial ties to trot, maybe maybe
coincidence that it happened to be that this russian oligarch was looking for the best most essential, consulting services available in America and he said
our the waterfront looking talking all the big players, and he would he came down through the end after this rigorous, unbiased search. Was that Michael Cohen was the man to do this nebulous work for him? May it's it's pretty wild and at some point I I recognise that everyone is innocent until proven guilty that we should be skeptical, but at some point to the mountain of coincidences gets so tall that you just have to acknowledge that there are more. There is an incredible amount of questionable condo
ACT, illegality criminality is at the root of all of this is that are just too many coincidences for this to be a coincidence, yeah. I endorse couple other interesting points here. You know
that their little worried about this, because Columbus Nova said through an attorney
It was never owned by a foreign entity in yet ran overgrew
the russian conglomerate listed on their website as one of their companies
Columbus Nova as late as
November of twenty seventeen
and when you go there now it's as other websites under construction.
we also know the Columbus Nova, the american subsidiary, which is an investment firm for some reason, spent twenty. Sixteen and twenty seventeen registering websites for white supremacist and all
right groups? Why wasn't investment firm doing that? Why are they
rolled by russian oligarchy. Why did they spend five hundred
in dollars on Michael Collins, essential consulting services and why
this all done in a time period right before the election and ended in the summer.
Twenty seventeen right when the sanctions debate stop what what's going on here, have main John you're, so cynical about the behaviour of primarily affiliated oligarchs,
I just I don't know- I don't know yet fucking crazy, that's what it is. It is it's whole obvious: what
going on here, and it is. But we
can't say it and we have to I dance around it. It's like the stories in the paper over the weekend, there were the incredible investigative reporting about the fact that Trump, at a time of incredibly low interest rates and
instead of who, instead of borrowing money, decided to break with all real estate practice and just poor mass
amount of cash of unknown origin into real estate properties,
while his son was saying that on in an interview that all the money came from, Russia
we don't say what it needs. Money laundering like no one could say that, because that would somehow violate some normal journalism. It is pretty clear what is going on here. The
My question is: will Bob mother or this? U S attorney from Southern Europe, able to find sufficient evidence to prove beyond reasonable doubt that a crime was committed, but let us not be naive about what is happening here. Minutes is so put like. It all happened.
Before our eyes and it's amazing yeah. It's a lie, and it also is also important to note that we always know a fraction of what model
knows, and we usually no it much later than what. When Mahler found out.
So we know from all these reports that Mahler was questioning this russian oligarchy months ago. We know that he has,
looking into essential, Elsie and looking at these payments months ago? We only know now because of an idea, but but mothers known all of this for a long long time. So, in addition to tat
Half a million from russian oligarchs in buying the silence of the president's mistresses, essential can
and was also a massive paid. A play slush fund Cohen, would basically go around two big corporations with business before the government and promised them access to Donald Trump in his advisers. In exchange for large sums of money, a teen tea was trying to push a merger through and fight net neutrality rules, so they paid off Cohen. A big drug company called Novartis heard the Trump promised to lower drug prices, so they paid off Cohen. I get first of all how common
That's because you know up there is this relationship in DC, where a lot of companies pay people, they believed to be close to a president, a sort of get advice and it falls short of the
legal definition of lobbying, but its clearly trying to purchase some sort of influence and access
your hearing from a lot of seas at Washington, hands and reporters? You ve been around the block and dined at the capitol girl Multiple times saying. This is just how things
done and that's kind of donors and terrible has that's cool
it's written about also not really true, because
as yes, there are a lot of people who go around and
or sell their access to.
pretty naive corporations and foreign entities about what they're gonna be able to deliver, and so that does happen. But what is different here as a couple things one the amounts of money, we're talking about our pre extreme right like so. I think I d say that Novartis it was who ended up paying one point, two million dollars. I believe over time. That is an amount of money for one,
fuel that is pretty unheard of and how lot clinical lobbying is done in Washington. Apparently it's apparently
way way more than Novartis paid any of their lobbyists so
through all their lobbying records and even like the most expensive lobbying from it, they hire it's nothing compared to what they paid Michael Fucking Cohen. For one, that's that's that is so that that's alarming early since suggest something untoward. Second, the wheel, if not just overlooked. The fact that, like there is his grey area between like on the outskirts of lobbying, that shit is unregulated, should be really regulated, which is basically strategic. Insulting were people who, with large networks and great connect
and get clinical political intelligence and share it with companies, but then, but dont technically advocate for a specific policy or advocate on behalf of a client and therefore they don't have to register as lobbyists, which means that we have to disclose things and they sort of live in this sort of than the shadows of the DC influence game. If some these reports are true that what trump what com is promising, was Pacific meeting specific access, but to Deliverance Bas a specific request of thee of these clients, then he was almost certainly lobbying and in violation of the law now on. The list of crimes, Michael Cohen, is alleged to have committed violating the lobbying registration filter ensures. Lobbyists is probably pretty small, but it is a crime and we should not overlook moderately significant crimes from close associated President states in a normal world. That would be a gigantic
on? It should be here till we can't just or a poet, because they meet is not guilty of treason or conspiracy against United States or the other crimes that people, as you may have committed yeah I mean so there's a legal question, which is how much legal trouble is common energy has talked about and also is Trump liable as well, though,
questions are, did trump know about what corn was doing, was trumped getting any money himself, knowing that Trump doesn't like win aids, you know, or people close to him, profit off of him and usually likes to can't take a cut on his own
there's a lot of questions about what you know, whether from a new others and be was getting my himself. So that seems like that's. You know. That's the Trump liability is also a larger political question here, which is how drained, as this fucking swap right this this this president
you know up till, like the weeks before the election was talking about Hillary Clinton being bought off and draining the swamp in Washington, and it's become so fucking comical at this,
but now we have in the Trump administration the biggest companies and richest assholes can just pay off Republicans to get tax cuts and special favours, while most people's premiums are going up, the to their prescription. Drugs are going up.
eighteen tease Jakin up their phone bills? Their internet isn't free anymore, and you know these people can afford to pay a bribe to some dumb shit mobster lawyer, whose friends with Donald Trump and they can afford to make huge donations to pay of pollen.
Missions and that's the government right now into me. That seems like that. Some, the Democrats
go out there and run on what do you think yeah? That's it. That's is accurate. Donald Trump ran as a populist reformer, and his government, as a corporatist crook and Democrats have to make
a case, and I was meant I was making some reporters the other day about this question. Like you think, Democrats are doing the right message and the answer is we don't know yet because we're not at a point where Democrats are communicating in paid messaging, digital television to voters right. That's how you know what the real message of campaign is not whether or not
they're saying on Twitter and that's kind of shock to people like what is that? What does it mean? The narrative, their campaign, it they're going to spend money to communicate to voters what are their violent?
years in canvas sirs, saying to people the doors in the thoughts right like what. What is that narrative gonna, be aid in the world
all I think twist around the axles, a party because one of the overly simplistic critique of the democratic message into doesn't sixteen was you focused too much on trumps, personal foibles and nodded,
foreign policy and to me there are some merit that to that point for sure, but that it is not its a false choice where you have to weave a policy narrative with an argument around the characters and values of who you're running against, and that is not does mean- has all the about tromp. But what is happening in washes all tied together, even tens for long time. The argument from Democrats should be your runny against the chaos in the corruption in Washington in Wall Street, and then you have like literally a phone book. Anyone mobile phone book was of data points. The point that I got so I think that's what this year. This common thing is one more example of that, and we should use it because it says something about what is happening in Washington and why we need change. Democrats are the changes time which we were not last time so weaken more enthusiasm
we grasp that change mantle and were able to do in two thousand. Sixteen, yes, that's right. I think that the top line message for Democrats here is change which we can run on now, because we didn't, you know we're not running with someone who's gonna be the successor to unencumbered president, who is therefore to terms so
the top. My message to me: this is getting the median arid of two. We talked about this a little bit on Tuesdays pod. You know Democrats,
if they had their brothers, maybe they spend all day talking about issues like health care and the tax cut, but that doesn't get picked up in the
is the media is gonna, be focused on these trump scandals. From now
until November, and I don't think we can do anything about the fact that the media is gonna, be focused on these scandals. They just are that's the way the media is, and so
we have to figure out where there is an intersection between the policy issues that we want to talk about them.
and to me, this Michael Cohen, paid a play. Slush fund scheme is the biggest intersection we ve seen. Yet it is a scandal that will be covered on television that will be.
His intersection we ve seen? Yet it is a scandal that will be covered on television. That will be covered in the Washington media that people can return run. Twitter and Democrats can go
into that narrative by saying yeah, big drug company pays off Michael Cohen, the hundreds of thousands of dollars to get quote on quote insights with administration, and is it again
incidents that Donald Trump who ran promising to lower the cost of prescription drugs hasn't done shit about lower
the cost prescription drugs yet, meanwhile,
or are there and it's one of the biggest cause people face as their prescription drugs specially senior citizens? I think you can't just talk about the corruption in a vacuum
and we set as a million times, but the full messages. How does the corruption affect people's lives? And I think you can get the town,
get in there. You can get healthcare in there and it seems to me it's like all part of a peace. That's exactly
and I would say the media's gonna focus on Russia, Stormy Daniels, those of things and they probably should Hague, we are
king at censure, the greatest scandal in american political history happening before our eyes and it should be covered. The problem is, there is just a delta between this very important new story and what voters may be most interested in and because the information that is being put forward about collusion about Russia about trumps, Russia connections is
things want it's telling people information, they probably already made a decision on either decided. That's hash, Ike, fake news and you dont care and you're gonna do it. You can do anyway or you ve already decided that trunk colluded with Russia. We gotta do something about that's your sporting, someone else about what is the information they can take the people that is new information. They can move,
people who are either undecided about who devote for- or
undecided about whether to vote and
this. Where, like, if you think about where you should put your energy, is a Democrat. That's the way to do that, you're exactly right that finding an entry point to tie it to some of these things are being talked about is important, but also just you as a candidate control. What comes out of your mouth, you control. What you're
I'd say you control why your door Knocker say! Is there then you, if you know the media can be focused on something that is not concept?
actual to deciding the election in your favour than you have to be relentlessly fucking, disciplined about making sure that every piece, a communication that emanates from your campaigner, your person, is about what you know, voters care about, and that's thought that is what separates great candidates from bad Kennedy,
when he can. I suppose it cannot simply of arms like this year, and I think another data point here that just came out today is that you sent me the story that Sheldon Ale Syn,
just drop thirty million dollars on
mid term elections to give to Republicans this is this same Sheldon Needles in whose company recorded
Six hundred and seventy million dollar income tax windfall from the republican tax law in the first quarter. So I guess I guess Republicans got their monies worth
from the tax cuts, because now they have thirty million dollars. The helpful are candidates. Who would make one point on this, which it this is how fucked up our campaign? Finance laws are, which is Paul. Ryan went to the meeting made the case for why Republicans needed to be elected walked out of the room, so his staffer from the super packets, but make the specific ass a Sheldon aid, often for the money, because Paul Ryan is not legally allowed to raise money for assented. Heat is code, the meeting into anything other than ass for the Mai, and that is somehow fucking legal in america- and this is a point tied in with a message against this level of corruption, is also an agenda,
and reform a reform agenda, a run on and ending citizens United Campaign finance reform lobbying from ethics. For me to be a part of it, because this is fucking whereas it is, it is a crime that it's not a crime and look this. This is what we are up against in the mid terms, and it's not going to be easy. And if you look at that and when I talked to Harry about this, but if you look at the generic ballot, it's pretty close and Democrats are still above fifty fifty to take back the
and now we're facing all this money were facing. You know a media. This can be talking about, like you said, a scandal that maybe there's a delta between that scandal, in what voters actually care about and so democratic.
Really gonna need to get their message down.
we're. Gonna need resources and
if you wonder what you can, do you no word
put up a video later today about the cricket. Eight member, the cricket, eight in the Caribbean.
It is the seven districts in California where he'll
Clinton one but there's still a republican sitting in that sea plus diminution sea, because he's a fucking asshole
and so you can go to cricket dot. Complex cricket eight condone
to these races, so that on
six, the California primaries June fifth, on June. Sixth,
whichever Democrats emerge from those primaries as the candidates to challenge the Republican and
and they will have the resources they need to fight Republicans and shut
little since thirty million dollars so incredibly important, gotta cricket our complex cricket eight and
and done it today: pots of Amerika
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America's brought by only only as a vague and plant based on milk, originally from Sweden,
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We people said that congratulating Sweden was not mad last night.
In Sweden, you know I'm not doing offering you any sort of. Congratulations only is also available in our kitchen here, darker gimme. That's true
drove that is true love it. You probably noticed that here the pot, our sponsors have an interesting, really high ratio of products that are revolutionary or game changing or even life changing. I have. I have noticed that John, but today is different, because today we are talking about outlook
is it as revolutionary as dropping Pandit off at the office, leaving her to bargain than walking to ensure by diner to eat a disgusting breakfast. Why wait for you to finish? Recording pod, save America's letting come back into the ads. The barking was deafening. No, it's just boring or milk out milk, but it's good boring, oatmeal, the best boring of milk.
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That's o eighty allied our dial up some kind of echo in the MIKE.
for only at your local supermarket or your favorite coffee shop or your favorite crooked media headquarters. Let's talk about gene, a hassle, Donald Trump nominee to be the next year
or of the CIA went before senators on Wednesday should be the first woman.
on the agency, if she's confirmed by the Senate, but are not
since being friend by concerns about her involvement with the CIA is torture programme,
one point: last week it was reported she wanted to withdraw her nomination, but the white has convinced her not to add her hearing
Ass well said she wouldn't allow the agency to restart the torture programme. I she told senators her moral compass
and that you and allow the say to participate and immoral activities even if they were considered to be legal and yet
when pressed by common Harris and others on why
there. She believed that torture was a moral. She refused to answer,
Dennis is like another one of those situations like with Pompiers nomination, where it seems
Republicans will need a few democratic votes for hassle to be confirmed because, among other things, ramp,
all and John Mccain of now both said that they did vote against her. Of course, yesterday was virginias. Joe mansion became the first Democrat to say, he'd vote to confirm her do. Do you think that the other Senate Democrats were up and twenty eighteen are going too far,
oh mentions lead. I think some well, that's just a guess. I know where we're not the protection business but radiation, even guess that, but based on past practice, it seems likely that some of them will and you. I said this about compare witches
if you believe, if you truly in your heart, believe that the Senate Democrat the Gina Haspel was the best person for the job that Donald Trump could possibly nominate. Then vote for that is, you should vote vote, your conscience, as TED Cruz would say.
but if you believe that voting for Gina has was somehow gonna help you in election in and spare you from Seeber package,
paid for by Shall dataset and others calling you unpatriotic
risking America, because you for because your votes for trumps nominees than yours, dangerously naive and have vastly swept through the last twenty years? America politics! So it's one of these things where, if you, if you're, making a political calculation you're making the wrong one, if you think voting for a Trump nominee, while you frontier regions, one, you will be spared nothing. These people on the right do not give a fuck what your actual voting record as they will say, or do
everything they can to the future and then to also think people have a very good cynicism detector and if they think you're doing it for political reasons, you will both depress enthusiasm on your side and persuade any voters. So if you do make the vote, does you out making very compelling case for wireless and not shy from it? But my personal view, if I was our deftly vote, no, I think it's a mistake to did not turn the page on a very dark era in american history in this yeah yeah. It's me first and foremost, the morally right thing to do to say
against torture. Second, we know because I think Brac Obama's most one of his most popular lines in two thousand and eight was the United States. Doesn't talk
and we should end torture- and it was an extremely popular stance.
so I dont know why the Democrats with would be afraid of saying that they took us hard stance.
against torture or someone who doesn't know whether
She believes that torture is moral or out of someone who you know
ordered or was ordered to destroy tapes of enhanced interrogations and went along with that,
I have no doubt that she's has great qualifications and experience
and all the other stuff, but she was part of this
and she hasn't fully decided to refute it so that a real problem but like
I think you're right the leg. I think, if you were as a Democrat in a red state and
having a fight your engaging in a fight with your opponent over Gina hassles, now
nation or might Pompiers nomination instead of going after the Republican on the republican tax cut or their attempt to dismantle
affordable, correct. I know what the fuck you're doing anyway. Now I expect that as what most read that roads they Democrats are going to do,
I bet all clear MC ads and Joe Donnelly's ads and Joe mentions ads are going. It seem like
economically populist adds against their republican opponents. Its I mean ate it just its. It is frustrating
because- and I I don't want to be so cynical about this- it is very possible that your mission very sincerely believes. Indeed, there is a calculation that can be made here, which is Gina Haswell, for whatever flaws she may have is at least some one with experience.
relevant experience of the job. You should ask for, and not just some some dragged from the Fox NEWS, green room, which is
also always a real possibility for opposition now secured in its country? Maybe your mentions view is: if not Gina Hospital is, can we brain kill me?
perhaps so remedy you so I'd rather sub Gorka Loggia. Exactly like that, I mean that's not out of the Roma, possibility it with this present, so it is possible that the calculations are making its not that that is not the choice. I would make right. What I just worry about sometimes, is that we is it there's a strain of political cautioned emanating from political consultants that is outdated from a different era of politics. Certainly in error that existed before Donald Trump was president that I hope that's not what is driving the same will say it is one Democrat right now, but I will see what others do. I tweeted something last night after Mccain came out against an acid see. Democrats is out this heart and actually ended up deleting the tweet, because, as you under the Democrats on all these things, he arrived majority Democrats have done the right thing. There are helpful. If I do, we disagree with by this new none indictment of the party it is, the party has overwhelmingly.
stood very, very strong against trumps nominees at inspect. That will happen here again. It will see a small handful side with mansion on this. I hope they dont by past practice suggests it may happen, look and end the reason. This is important as those there's a symbolic element of this too, which is that this we were
send a message to the world that we stand against torture and
The time where our reputation, the world has been severely damaged by Donald Trump as president and his decision to pull out of multiple global agreements at the United States has been part of
the Paris agreement. The IRAN deal ends and just not care.
Our standing in the world which matters and it doesn't matter just because you know
we like to feel good,
about how other countries think of us there's a national security element to it? We need other countries to help us fight terrorism, fight disease, fight, pandemics,
of all these threats all over the world and we're not gonna happen
a lot of allies. If we're a country that breaks our promise when we enter-
to global agreements and then
waffle on whether we stand again, something like torture. So it's actually, you know, there's a national security element to sending against torture and
Oh, I was important. Ok when we come back we'll be talking to see and ends Harriet and about
knowing and the
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all the blood today we have Harry end the whiz himself.
CNN analysed pollster extra
they're pulling analysed extraordinary. You haven't been on the show, since it was keeping sixteen hundred and
back. Then you were five. Thirty eight we were keeping in sixteen hundred now or indifferent roles. So welcome back very well. Thank you
for having me back shalom to every body and to be back on a pod cast and such an esteemed one. Is this I feel like I'm walking home in for the first time since being off at college for a first semester. We re love that flattery Harry. We love it. So here's my big question: you there's a CBS pull out this week that show Democrats with nine point lead and the generic congressional ballot CNN polisher to three point: lead
the average is around seven points which you said would be a fifty fifty proposition to take back the house. So what I'm wondering is, when I saw you wrote about this last week, why Republicans doing so much worse in special elections, then you might
expect from only being down by a seven point average in these poor. While it could be a number of things that
going on number one. Obviously these are open seats, so incumbents tend to get a little bit of a abounds, and so there are no republican incumbents and obviously the national ballot is taking no account some districts where some incumbents
will be running. That's number one on number two. I should point out. If you go back to two thousand six, you saw a pretty similar shift in the special elections as as has been occurring so far this year
and in that year, what ended up happening. Despite you know, democrats outperforming the partisan, Lena those districts by fifteen sixteen points you ended up having a national houseboat than which Democrats only one by eight, which is fairly close to what you
seeing right now on the generic ballot. So I don't necessarily see the two of those in conflict. I think that there are two measures we look at both of them we take them both into account
recognize hey. You know we're still a number of months away from the election, so things are
but up in the air right now. Historically, how predictive is the generic ballot this far out from the midterms it,
actually pretty good. I mean it, certainly better than the presidential ballot would be. At this point I had of a presidential election, but there's a war
I'd margin of error around that estimate, so you know the Democrats
we won the National Houseboat by say two or they want it by fourteen both of those would be within the realms of possibilities, but at this particular time I think that particular estimate, you know, say seven April
it's a pretty good idea of where we're probably going to end up plus two two plus fourteen big range, big rain, FIG Range Bigley
ugly big league, which one is it I dont know, but it's maybe both. That is the great debate of our times Harry. Why do what do you?
if you work. If you are a Democrat and you look at you, so look at all the array of data out there. What would give you hope in what would give what would be like a really strong, blinking red light of worry yeah? I think that the
to me. The thing that gives me the most hope is you're running a lot of candidates and a lotta districts right. You can't win games and which are not poor. Taking
so you're running a lot of candidates. There are very few republic can incumbents who are running on opposed this particular year. These democratic candidates are raising a ton of money. These are things that definitely matter and help, especially on the edges.
you're, not sure. If this does end up being a wave election, you dont know which seats might fall. She rather be in a position to take advantage of the way. So I think that to me as something that's very, very good. I think you know we kind of already hit what perhaps as a little worrisome right now. We have seen the Generic Bout
Perhaps not be reflective, nearly ass, much of the special actions and more than that, we have seen president trumps approval rating inch up over the last few months. No, it's not
even know it's not the rascally simple, that the present likes to tweet out so often, but it is creeping up its creeping up into
low too may be met forties. You know forty to forty one getting up there a little bit more than that the president does
to do a little, but matter among registered voters, not just adults. In a
Remember. Not all adults are going to vote in a mid term election, it's going to be only voters, and so the fact that Trump
The little better among that group to me is at least a little worrisome
what are your thoughts on the endangered Senate democratic incumbents? How much does incumbency help them in these deep red states? How much you think they have to work? Even democrats are paying enough.
attention to those races. Well I mean certainly I think that they are, but that might not be enough right. We go back to say one thousand nine hundred and eighty two, when you
in the present when you're in a mid term election year, in which your in the opposition party incumbents of the opposition party
rarely ever lose. I think it's there's something like one hundred and twelve out of one hundred and sixteen or something like that dating back to nineteen. Eighty two. So that's a very, very good percentage of the time that they're winning. However, there are
very few examples where you say: have a Joe mansion Running and West Virginia we're down from one that state by forty one point
and then he's going up against that sort of force going up against him,
and we don't really have a lot of data points to really bounce off of in that particular situation, so yeah? I would say that there,
in trouble at wooden. Surprise me: if the Democrats don't lose a single cent at sea, but it will surprise me.
Louis West, Virginia Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota Montana,
why so testers, probably on the little better shape than the other folks are, but all those
you're in danger. So when surprised me at all, if you end up with a situation where the Democrats take back the house with rather ease and then don't take back the Senate,
fact end up with a little bit of a net loss.
You know Harry! You mentioned president trumps creeping up already into a decidedly video
bid forties, never write that guided him.
not good, but dad does not grant not. On the
I guess a question around that is using per
It s approval or using candidate approval as a measure that predict emissions predictive, it seems unlikely trumpet of one to begin with
Do I may do the trumps hypnotism entirely unique? Figured you think. Certain things like it's worth did
we may be basing some of our analysis on past pulling as relates present approval.
The economy or other things on a on a model that doesn't work because Tropic such a unique figure that maybe his privilege not tied, good or bad
to how the elections go in the same way, it might have been true for Obama or Bush Oakland. I mean
sure there is obviously the question of whether or not Donald Trump breaks the rules of politics, and I ask that question myself in an article a few weeks ago, but I think that we should point out that in two thousand sixteen he was also going up against Hilary.
And who, for better or worse, was one with the second least popular presidential, major Party, nominee of all time, at least dating back to since we are pulling, and that sort of variable has been taken off the board
and so now it's all about President Trump and if the past is in fact predictive of the future
then having an approval rating in the low forties is not very good and fact would predict that Republicans would lose control of the house in twenty eighteen
There is a wide margin of error again around that estimate and we're not exactly sure that the rules apply.
but I am a little sceptical of throwing out the entire playbook just because of what happened in twenty sixteen, because now that Hillary Clinton is not a candidate for the Democratic Party, no,
how hard Republicans try to make,
a candidate for the Democratic Party she's not on the ballot, so I think that the presidential approval rating understanding that I think is a very key measure. What's your best guess for why trumps approval rating has crept up in recent months,
Do you think it has to do with certain things that have been in the news, certain things that he's done or do you think this is that it sort of Bin?
within this small range, and we should pay too much attention to it.
Well, I mean yeah has been in a small range, although, as my former friend Mr Silver pointed out on the website, five thirty eight, you might have heard of it that in fact there been many presidents who have had a small range report
rules and then a kind of bus out, and they go either high or low. But I will say that the reason why I think his approval rating is creeping up. A little bit is number one. There is a general regression to the mean right. If you approvals really low behold everything else, equal, you tend to rise for pupils really high. You hold everything else. Equal will tend to fall, so I think that's pie
I also think part of it is that you know the economy is doing fairly well by most traditional measures from
prove operating on their economy has tended to be well out in front of his regular
prove a rating and, as perhaps he's kept the little more quiet, although for any
now that would be exceedingly loud. I think that's kind of shone through a little bit and as people have gotten more use to the term presidency and he's not you know, trying to get people were green cards out of this country.
necessarily the economy's kind of shone through, and I think that people are been responding to that at least a few people, though, as we pointed out, the operating is still rather low, carry to take it taking a step back,
for a second, you know you. We hear people all the time because of having probably somewhat ignorance use of how twenty sixteen played out say clinical pulling his broken right. You hear that a lot from trot people whenever the poles are bad, and sometimes you heard from Democrats when the poles are good for Trump
and so I wanted to ask you just your take on this current state of the accuracy and efficacy of political polling in general. Has it gotten worse? Does it need to be fixed? What would you do if there
Don't think it's gotten worse. I mean there was a great study that was done. I barely by Will Jennings, including the poorest lesbian academics, basically pointing out that
falling has been about his accurate is, as it's always been, and then I looked at the twenty seventeen and twenty Eightth elections that have occurred so far. The special actions in the group in a tory election,
some Virginia and New Jersey and basically, what we saw was yet the poles have been off a little bet. You now say four points in the House: special
but that's within the normal range of error that we would expect, given the past accuracy or predictive nests of the polling within the final three weeks, the
and so I'm not to concern at the poles are broken. But I am concerned about, though, is that people who look to the polls and expect precision without realising that poles or tools and then, if one candidate say as up to three points
yet a candidate is more likely than not to win. But it's far from a sure thing. We learned our lesson about that here for sure
I think I think you boys did learn your lesson about that. There are my condolences to you. I, of course, as the non partisan, analyse, have no fear
things one way or another on that particular issue, but my condolences to you now we ve
but this before. But what? What are your thoughts, an ongoing problem of not enough good polling quality? Pulling me. I've been looking for individual House District Poles in California for months now,
Good luck, boys, good luck! What the hell man, I'm looking for some good poles! I need my fix. While you know look house district polling is very, very difficult to come by and the fact is. I have actually been compiling a data set people of see me my headphones and the office going. What is he doing
he's, not writing, and I'm a little in going back in building a data set say in twenty twelve and just finding every pull that I possibly can on the House district level. It's gonna, almost all be pop
and this time around. An what we're gonna need to recognize is
that at least on a house district level we're going to have to say you know what that's a democratic poll we're going to probably have to subtract x number of points away from the democratic candidate unaverage. Oh, it's a republican poll we're going to have to subtract.
X, number points away from the republican candidate on average, so I'm not expecting too much there. There will be some
districts. Where we'll get a lot appalling. You know in New York, you have Sienna College that does some has district pulling, for example, so they're gonna be some
But overall on the House district level, I would keep expectations and check on the Senate and good governance,
Real level may be there. We might be able to get some better high quality pulling going forward. At least I'm hopeful. That's why I've been heading two synagogue so much and it's not just cause. I like the rabbi I mean. Look, I guess, for our purposes are partisan purposes is good, because now people can go work there. Ass is often not be overcome by any poles, but you know is analysing prognosticated
kind of annoying. So it's definitely annoying, but I think that's the one thing we need to keep in mind, keep our expectations in check and you know always
the margin of error, and as long as we do that, then I think we'll keep ourselves out of trouble. Although there going to be something
Lunch twitter anyway, who decide to go after you just because they have no lives in their miserable people. But you know the world
miserable PETE. That's, not a twitter, I know
Oh yeah, I'm sure that's, not the twitter, that you know they're no nasty people on twitter whatsoever. There, some very lovely people on Twitter. We share soda habits. We talk about dogs. We talk about fuller house.
There also the people were little darker, who perhaps you know have some
mommy and daddy issues mentioned are filled with smiley faces and thumbs up emerges. That's about it! It's great that that's that's very nice, I'm! I feel very good area in Vienna,
Thank you. So much for joining us come back again soon. When we have some great polling to talk about sounds great. I look forward to a guys
this area and for joining us. That's all long time we have heard today, and we will love, will see next week by everyone
Transcript generated on 2020-10-17.