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That's the Ticket Episode 3: The Decision


On the third, and final, installment of That's the Ticket, Dan and Alyssa talk about what factors a candidate has to consider once they've vetted potential VPs, how the vice presidential announcement process has evolved over time, and finally who they think Biden will pick. Dan also talks to Perry Bacon Jr., a senior writer from FiveThirtyEight, about what polling does and doesn't tell us about the impact of a VP pick.

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Is it your cat? Yes, I shouldn't I woke up. I saw that scaled down, no just joking, when it's done it anyway. I just through some toys, walk back to the third and sadly fun opposite of that's a ticket. I'm Dyin Pfeiffer and I'm alyssum astronomical on today's episode working to talk about what factors candidates consider once they have better potential options, how they announced their decision and who we think Biden might pick along the way. We're gonna talk about being quails gaps
so much material there and some of the most memorable moments in vice presidential debate history as well as some more of my campaign trail antics later in them. I talk to you senior writer at five, thirty, eight Perry, Bacon Junior about what the polling tells and doesn't tell us about, the politics of vines choice what are you doing? I mean body person we talk about last episode, sure how last week you know we talked about Sarah Palin and we talked about Geraldine for our own. We really talked about, like Ferrajo being picked as the first democratic women on a democratic ticket and buddy. Her daughter, Geraldine, furrows, daughter, donnas, Carro tweeted at us and sent us messages about how we did by her mom and telling the story- and I just don't know if we should just folded up and call it a day now, I'm not sure we can do better than that when we vote
People who have joined us in the zoom room to help us facilitates episodes. I think out of respect for that. We should probably do that. I guess I'll bet, tell you baby, feminist Eliza was really compelling. Every process is different, but I- think every modern nominee can there is the same set of factors and the running matrix now they may wait each of those factors differently, based on the state of their campaign. There own experiences is what the backdrop in which the campaign is happening, but they still look at those factors and, first and foremost, I think, among all these factors is a threshold question of readiness for the job and Joe Biden indicated that this is driving his decision he's been saying some version of this for the past couple months. Let's take a lesson but all kinda side. I have to pick somebody
who in fact reassures people that of tomorrow, lightning strikes in I die. I get and ivory stole my medical, all my medical records and I'm gonna want jinx mice. My mother said knock. I would, J, but my point is I got, pick somebody you, everybody, looked sad and meets two criteria, one. They are younger than I am now, I'm not being facetious and number two that they are ready on day one to be present on states, America, Alyssa, given Joe Biden Age and the fact this campaigns happening in the middle of a pandemic, do you think the readiness factor is even more important is time when sworn in knock one as Joe Biden would say, he'll be seventy eight she's, not young, and he follows probably one of them most nights. I feel confident saying be most unfit, president of all time, so I think that this has to be
Jimmy mentally or mentally or physically. Both I mean I'm not sure which, on a scale of one to ten, which you might be a ten on both scales, I don't even now he does not seem fits mean anyway. So I think that for Biden, readiness has to be numerous, whew now like. I don't think he has the luxury of making a real outside the box pick here. I think you need someone who, when they are not, he announces this woman. I don't say person, I can say woman when he announced this woman everyone's like I fucking, get it good for you. Readiness is an interesting question in a world in which we are coming. On the heels of a two president's with very non traditional recipes. Brok. Obama varies very successful, Donald Trump Bus. I'd say there is a greater readiness in terms of their resume and readiness in terms of their ability, convinced the american people, her gonna, be choosing this ticket of their readiness right
you know the most obvious example of a key began who feel the readiness tests with Sarah Palin, which are a lot about her on the pod. You probably member Tina, face pressure, There wasn't levels in the writers it s now, if not yours and prepared in an hour we're two thousand eight pull shortly before the vice presidential debate. A washing Abc newspaper found that sixty percent of voters thought the pillar did not have these fears needed to be present, including thirty percent of Republicans, now. What I think is really notable about that is her resume was not significantly on paper. Worse than Obama's like the public here is reflecting. What they saw her between when she was announced in August, and when this policy can act now someone who are younger list may not members melodies, dank well, who was viewed aspect, really dumb and prepare for the job of president when she ran with George Hw Bush in nineteen. Eighty eight and one thousand nine hundred and ninety two
his most famous gaff today- is probably misspelling potato on camera in a classroom full of elementary school students in eighteen. Ninety two, but this would just of his many fuck ups, here's vehicle, Talking about war war, to millions of innocent people. Lost their lives because of the bigotry and Hitler is the permeated, Germany and other parts of the world. It wasn't an period and our nations history does our nations, but it will work to me. We we all live in the central out. If I live in the central buttons in this century's history that we did not have met effect. We fought it worrisome, which was a totalitarian form of government Alyssa. I consider you a student of history. You remember Hitler ISM, Sir,
oh buddy. I was just going to say that from now on, whenever I'm feeling like, I can't find by words on a podcast, I'm just gonna, listen to that and get my self esteem back because he was brought in a vice president. I Joel remember, Hitler is neither does my alma who lived in Germany and fled people called Nazi. It's me is really interesting and speaks to how your performance on the campaign trail dictates perceptions of readiness right he had served. You know four times as long as he said it has brought about a day when Brok of Amr ran by because, under the clique lights of a presidential campaign, he misspelled. The word potato in front of a criminal measures can children. He had this perception that he was already now pushing ultimately one the Idiot election right. So
Is that raise the question about whether, at least in terms of the context of the politics of the campaign? We worry too much about the readiness question. I don't think we worry too much about it. I mean one thing that I just can't get one thing that I did not know until getting ready for today. I knew about the potato comment and that
couldn't spell it. I didn't know that it happened at a spelling bee, which I just thought was various their incredibly just dramatic and makes it so much worse. But no, I think the readiness when you look at quail and when you look at Pailin, there's something about on paper, and I think this is what goes to the point that we ve been talking about about how important the vetting processes is that on paper, people can look much more prepared for higher office than they are, but what the two of them lacked profoundly was any sort of world view right, like Erlich, fundamental curiosity and how things worked or people lived, or I don't know, but I think that people.
John necessarily boat for the vice president, but I think a vice presidential pick can scare the shit out of them. Yes, I think that's exactly right, which is broken while I was refers, is selection of Joe Biden is the most important decision he made before becoming Eric as it says so much about their judgment, their vision of how they're going to run their government, what they value and when it looks like you're taking a short cut. Voters notice right, payloads. A great example, which is their interview, were marked Salter, who was Mccain's very super longtime adviser, cheapest Athens and for many years helped explained that pale indecision, and he said, and on paraphrasing mark here, but that Obama, personified change in became, did not send you to add something to the ticket that demonstrated change and Sarah Palin leave would do that now. Change for changes to Hake is not good, necessarily right.
Maybe they should. I thought that through, but it Ed, so much about Mccain's judgment which was already under question because of his incredible unyielding. Despite years of evidence for the Iraq war, there he would choose someone who would potential we held a moment campaign now at the expense of what kind of government he would have if you want, and voters and noted in its fit within a narrative of Mikhail, which was that he had bad judgment and erratic decisionmaking process. When you say it's a vetting issue right, I think what you really saying coming from wrong is you're. Talking about the judgment that bind with us, we make it binds advisors will make about how they will perform once they are on Broadway on the ticket. Right, like anyone can look at the resume and I think on every person who will you know if you look at the people dying shortly, you have incredibly successful senators, Senator
you have surgeon state White Office, you have people who have run cities. You have people who have been no net. Security advisers to invest as you and present like people with a wide range of different experiences, all of which have more experience than Donald Trump but the question is it really? Will people look at the resume its? Will? They look at that candidate when they are on stage and say this person is ready. The choice of this person by Joe Biden tells me. The Joe Biden has somewhat trees judgment. I will trust in a crisis.
Is that right, yeah and also like when you think about it. A very low bar hurdle could be how this person do in an interview with Katy Correct, because neither the hen Quail or Sarah Palin we're ready for prime time. You know, like George Bush was so I mean his credentials were extraordinary and when he picked quail, it was almost seen by some people. The Republican Party and certainly commentators, and especially people in the United Kingdom they had a lot safer, is that it was such a cavalier choice that he's viewed himself in such a way that he picked this person. Who had just seem like young and veer. All it is important. I think in the quail and pale like these are two very different actions have been two very different times became and was a republican sender following a republic in president with an approval ready under thirty percent
you know I always joke that George W Bush, with someone popping two thousand and eight election, that his speech at the Republican Convention was canceled because of a hurricane in Florida, even though the connection was in Minnesota and then they never rescheduled up like that. Some are worth and Bush. Following Reagan, who was still in a quite popular Hetty. You know, after two terms but there is also the factor that men with resume, skip the benefit of the doubt in a way that women do not right. How that, like that level, massage any is going to, I underlie the reception to bite speck right, which privacy we women. The other two other elements of the quail example that I think are relevant to this election, which is
As you point out, Georgie Shabby Bush was one of the most experienced people to ever run for president right. He had been vice president for two terms. He had been a senator. He had been the C. I a director he'd certain a number of positions all throughout government. He had a very expensive recipes. Learner crush him at his readiness, and he was obviously while not aspirin checking he was cynically younger than by. But there were two points during that campaign. Were Bush fell ill that seriously ill but ill enough be off the campaign trail which raised the spectre of a quail presidency, like George W Bush Biden, has an impeccable set of one of our traditional experience is prepared for the job he worked in that building for eight years, not very long ago, and even though it feels like a thousand years ago, but also this is happening in the middle of a pandemic and so that the spectre of illness. You know well, hang over this choice
now. I think of readiness is engaging issue right thinking, pain to says. There's this person meet a threshold on paper, and is it and our guy that they have what it takes to demonstrate that readiness to the american people on the campaign trail in interviews on a debate stage. Can they answer a question that newspapers organ of basic things and I think the second factor, if you think about, is governing right, when I think of governing this sort of what is the governing relationship- and it looks like this is projecting forward to if and when I win houses relationship, gonna work there to developments. That one is what is there in for the role the vice President place and then which of you're on your shoulders fits within that role and the second one is personal relationship right by giving you can trust this person. But you know, there's been a lot of speculation. That Biden wants to replicate the partnership enrage, if that he had with Brok Obama
what was your recollection of that model? And how do you think it applies here? So there was a real partnership but a hierarchical partnership, because the president is the president and once the president makes a decision, you need someone who is going in form that decision and be a partner in the decision, but once he makes the decision, that's that and so from all of binds years in the Senate, like I think he fundamentally understood hierarchical relationships and protests really wanted some one who was going to be a partner, oh if you are someone who's on Biden, short list and you're, trying to think about the kind of relationship he might want. I think it would be just like a real partnership
Can you talk a little bit about the role that lunch plays and how that relationship works? So I Joe Biden very much thought it would be good for the President and and Biden to have lunch. Once a week together and when you think about it now who you are? If you don't pick your best friend mean. Obviously, if I ran for president, you would be my vice president and you but we have known each other for so many years. I fundamentally understand our relationship in your decision making style, and so the idea, but the two of them having lunch was one building that relationship coming to understand each other and also being able to especially for Biden, give his sort of unvarnished feedback not in front of a room full of cabinet secretaries. Here's my report, a question about this launch it through to the end.
Which is Brok Obama, Brok, seven almonds of honour is a very, very healthy, boring you, a heat salmon like four launch, like sixty yeah. Did you do that? He made by meets amateur launch, exceeds a wicked about and get off or after many, so I think tighten gotta order up the ban. You take us unless it was like a big group. Lunch usually because I do think protest was somewhat aware of his eating intricacies. That I believe I am going to say that by an ordered off the menu, though because he was such a good partner, he may have always just said I'll have what the President's African Biden has been brutally described as or think accurately as the most influential consequential vice president american history and that is unusual married. The vice president's each traditionally has been assessed, Monte opposition in some cases in our John Nan Scar,
who was one of Sdrs Vice President's once described the Vice presidency, as worth a warm bucket of piss, which I always thought that back what was warm bucket of sea wife a wise, but I've learned through. The very research skills are producer. Jordan, Waller that the press, He actually garner actually said piss, but the press clean it up to spit too life easier for garner and because I think he probably can get piss in the newspaper by better a literal example, a vagueness one It was interesting about the Biden Obama negotiations. Reef since learned is that Biden wanted to be ensured if something obviously hinted to allow the ceremonial set. The vice president's do their sort of famous for being sent to funerals for second and third year. World leaders they often are you don't have that president can't do something goes in them
as president, and so he did all those things. Obviously indeed, it gladly- and he spent a lot of time campaigning in during other things when he was it an office, but he was tasked with very specific projects and he never saw where he came in and because of his experience in the Senate really handle passing out of our legislative agenda through the Senate and handled negotiations with Republicans, he was in charge of Iraq policy right. He was spearheading. That is worth a yacht Howard and wine down the effort, Iraq. He was in charge of the Recovery act right. This you're gonna get us out of that, and my assumption is, is it Biden is looking for someone who can do that right? Who we can say that he says it's on these courts. The presidency is too big for one person, so you need someone who can take on real things and if them- and so the question is you think about while wish of these candidates, will he peck dip?
and on which they, you know, which we don't the antidote which things does he want to be able to hand off the summer stripe bike much like about him, the Economic Committee after Biden. If I'd want to do that, then, like you see Elizabeth worn as someone whose work I found a policy, if it He wants a hand off for a policy which is a race. You know it could be. Eighty range of issues, including the country with Campbell Harris you sort of go on down the line that, like the third factor that is looked at, is politics. Now I think, based on equal, we heard from bind earlier. That is the think, I think, he's gonna, consider least right in the more he goes up in the polls. I think politics, as a factor may diminish more, but the political factor. This is campaign and you can't you any other things right. You can have one this person, every weakening of off ass. You can mean just assign them projects until you went so winning remains part of the conversation and
There are a number of ways in which the politics of this are considered right. We know Le Vp nominee help them carry a state? The bp some state will the Vive he nominee help the ticket gain support specific constituencies. You know how will they handle the debate? So, let's start with the first one right, in the traditional way you think about this in its talked about they say buying, should take this person because they will help deliver this date which closer to somebody else. Is there any evidence that supporting the idea that a VP selection helps with winning their homes
I am in this wise part of the calculus for John Kerry. Would he pictured Emerson you're working on that process is correct, it wise and when I was thinking about this, I always like to think like. What's my first reaction to question when I ask myself the question, I think my response to myself was met. I asked if states matter John Kerry, like most of his finalists in two thousand for work from battleground or soon to be banned, ground states. There was a lot of talk about whether John Kerry back in two thousand for the idea of writing off the south. I'm putting that and quotes was still a thing and so be it. He'll of John Edwards was one that by picking a southerner from
North Carolina who had working class appeal. It wouldn't seem as though he was going to write off the south and also there was this a law that perhaps you know John Edwards could help carry win North Carolina, John Kerry lost North Carolina by fifteen points, so I dont think that there is real. If you go through history, I don't think there's any example of their really being someone who was packed and put the candidate over the top in a state where they already weren't within a couple of points, or any points at all. This is such a hard thing to judge, because it's such a small sample size right. We ve had so few presidential elections and only some subset of those presidential elections, while the vice presidential candidate from a swing state that could possibly move and then
Do you decouple that, from the other, a larger factors like, for example, in two thousand, Brok, Obama, almost constant by around fifteen points in it, the twelve Romney put your friend in mind, we concentrate Paul Ryan Eyed the ticket, and though he still loss was cancer, Lhasa by about half the margin that Obama one the state by in two thousand and eight, but you might look at that and say well. Paul Ryan is must be super popular in Wisconsin and therefore, he helped move the state, but then in two thousand and sixteen Donald Trump on this day in Paul Ryan was nowhere to be seen. And so. Paul Ryan, probably was had almost no effect on that in a more and what was going on. There was more about the partisan shift of that state over time now, putting aside states, because if you look at the people binding is considering, You have Tammy Baldwin, who is from the swing state,
right? You have Stacy Abrams accoutrements bottoms. You are from Georgia, which is a potential swing state city. It was our sea, even though she did not become governor, has got more votes in Georgia than any Democrat in history, including Barack Obama. In her two thousand and eighteen gubernatorial race, which was stolen from her by brain, can yes, yes, but everyone. You know others with warrant is not binding Massachusetts, you don't thou Jennings, you know, maybe that's impact foreign Florida, you David. Not super well known with you, no stay. Why let alone nationally, but There is a question about whether this person can help performance with a certain group.
Do you think that something by not consider, and particularly against the backdrop of the conversation we're having in this country over the last couple months about structural racism? I think it definitely plays in to the conversations that they're having within the Biden team and then with candidates as they talk to them, but even still, if you look back to the beginning, I mean, and by the beginning I mean the nineteen eighties Geraldine Ferrara first woman on the democratic ticket. Lost women by a lot. Hillary Clinton put spanish speaking time, Cain on the ticket. She did less well with latino is then Brok Obama did so. I think that you have to put everything in its place. I do think that all of the things that are happening in the world right now are very relevant to the conversations there having, but at the end of the day, the world
to believe the ticket right when they come out on stage or wherever the fact they are. People have to be like a get it because the their chemistry like makes sense- and you can see it- and I think that that is people competence, that they're gonna be a team, and so it's like, if you go back, you know all of Romney's advisers, told him to Peck Portman, because there is actually a chance of gaining the two or three points in Ohio with Portman to have you, no one him the state and he was like. You know, though I have lunch with someone. I wanted to be Paul Ryan, and I do think, though, that he'd Rina who is but it was our market, is able to absorb upsides. That is right. There disqualify what if you do you believe in you what I want to Paul Ryan. Oh my god, I thought you man, I was disqualified, oh no,
spotted wrongly scan the waterfront and he picked his weekly much harder to be Paul Ryan than I am sorry. You are not. You are less fit for the office Let me tell you another thing that is more. You pick a running mate with ill fitting suits you reap what you saw. Or you figure hang made. If you are, already losing, because you were seen as someone who was not sufficiently empathetic to middle working class Americans and you pick a person who is most famous for naming a plan to privatized Medicare after themselves, Stan you, you re put yourself. I am sorry, charming to turn this into a Paul Ryan Rant, Paul Dial, all trail. And I think I think you get to it. What is a very important part of the politics of this, which is you can be overly tactical about it by saying you know that
person can help us with this state and that does it manifests itself. This person can help us with this group of voters and it doesn't, as it did not for Monday on Fraud or Mccain and pale, and YO it has mattered. So I think there is some evidence that trunk selection of my pen, death might have helped the validation for evangelical voters, who might have been confused imperative to support a thrice married pussy graver. Uncouth present, I thought it. You then. Yes, because I can't wait till we debate whether that can be the title or not. But there is narrative right like it. This programme where the politics is. Does it help with the narrative like him, was an urgent need to Kate solids? Look at a couple of previous examples right in the case of Burma,
But while my obviously he was someone with less traditional experience who can be taking over any time in which America was in two wars and was barreling towards a financial crisis, Joe Biden, because certainly compared to the other two people on the short list by an TIM, came represented the most standard governmental experience, ripe tickle in the area of foreign policy, in the case of Al Gore, You know the Al Gore one is really interesting because he picked jolly which seems insane now that your liebermann is has become who years of it at the time. In that campaign, Al Gore was someone whose reputation had been sullied by association with a number of clear scandals- some fake. Generated in some slowly real, including the one that letter clicks impeachment and he went and picked
Joe Liebermann, who was the Democrat, who had been most vocally critical. A bill Clinton was seen by many as the moral voice in the Senate, and it was a pick them with his eyes to communicate to voters that Al Gore was breaking with some of the aspects of the current presidency that they did not like. Are there any narrative? You can think of that. Biden would be trying to establish here. If there was one issue, seventy seven year old white man might have, it might be with women and so he's already sort of approached and try to tackle that problem. By hang Ladys. I hear you and I see you but there's a lot more, and so I think that, while Biden himself look like everyone understands, this election is about an existential threat to life. The country and in the world, but Biden still has to motivate people to get out and vote because that's important
and so I think that while Biden knows that he himself does not come across as any sort of change agent and he is not the future facing face of the party. I do think that if there is one thing that he's thinking about is like who'd you I pick that can understand and speak to the change that needs to happen in this country who is someone that can help lead the party forward? There's a couple of, erections Biden can go here right. Tell me good campaign. Narrative is a implicit counter narrative for person you're taking, so that you can see a world where Biden decides that he's gonna double down on government competence right? We ve had this yeah, who relatively start, who cannot be bothered to do the job in there for the last four years and and worker. That's got us and economic depression and pandemic that bit has made America
there are some of the world. Do you get it fixed? Someone with tremendous amount of carbon experience? You could go with the sort of what you said, which is bridge should a future. Where he's going to say that I recognise that I am older. I am a transitional figure and I want my vice president to be the future right now. How much we will not less would fit accurate. Here you could say I want to double down on a bomb: Anastasia Right words like you're goin to you now, sort of make American Great again Sarka, two thousand to two thousand and sixteen and do not do something else as a whole. But you different ways: you can do it if he wants to focus on that now. The last part I think, of the political calculation, I think, probably the least concept although we should certainly feel free, as you often due to disagree with me on the spot. A good vice presidential candidate needs to be able to win a debate. What are they? notably bad VP debate, performances came from John Edwards in two thousand and four, when used up against Dick Cheney, Some people have said- and I have been over,
we mean to you about the selection of John efforts by John Kerry, who you are forever like to just stay for everyone is twinning, has that I am a not holding a list responsible for it be thought it was probably the wise decision. The time John embers reveal itself to be an absolutely harm, a human being and tall after that, and I'm just using I wanted to real Zack. I said it before and I liked very much he was by favouring puts also people don't need to stick up for me when it comes to you. I obviously hope my own. You got it there's! No. There is no doubt about that. Now. You know what what happened to that debate already remember about the Cheney. Edwards Tibet
So I remember everybody thinking that China Adwords with his like being beautiful side swept hair was gonna knock it after the park and he just did like some really ham handed sort, o hackneyed things when he got to the debate. It's like this is always might in that, when you look and there's we'll talk about Slater, but when someone lands a punch- and it seems like they just came up with that- that they can pivot and think on their feet. You're like damn. That was great, but the thing remember was that he got on stage and try to talk to Dick Cheney, about gay marriage, Dick Cheney, as a gay daughter, he was against gay marriage. John Edwards really thought he was gonna hit one home with this one. Dick Cheney was like. Get off. My stoop, you fly like I'm, not even going to talk to you and John Edwards was so against gay marriage. I just ITALY
but how is that the move debate it just it didn't it didn't make any sense. He was supposed to come off as, like this young veer. All you know, I always think of like Matthew, Mokanna, hay and a time to kill that that's what he was supposed to be, and he was not. He was not Jake Brigades here He was not one of Europe's Zachary deserve. There is obviously expectations problem, John Edwards, why a very successful trial lawyer and what sort of famous for his closing arguments in court before he and our politics and Jane. He wasn't never, politician of great talent. He had mostly worked his way up through Although we did Servant Congress for years, he was secretary of Defense, he was Gerald Ford Chief of Staff and he was known for being the master of the inside. Recently, we have not talked about this pod adds. We probably should have was that Dick Cheney
ran George W Bush is vice presidential selection process. It down and the process by taking which is so maybe did he say, or inside politician, but not someone who's, particularly charismatic from the camera, but he was quite well prepared and he landed a relatively brutal hit. I'm John Edwards is inexpert its Inter Edwards into a version of Jan Quail there. Let's take a lesson you ve got one of the worst attendants records in the United States Senate. In my capacity as vice president, I am the present, the sun, the presiding officer, I'm up in the Senate to most Tuesday's when their inception the first. Am I ever met? You was when you walked on the stage tonight. We give dank well he was also involved in one of the most notorious vice presidents who debate moments when he was actually owned by centre. Avoid Benson after Quail was asked about experience. Let's take a lesson
just age, its accomplishments. Its experience. I have far more variants than many others that sought the office of present this country? I have as. Experience in the Congress Kennedy did when he sought the presidency. I will be prepared, you with the people in the Bush administration that unfortunate them whatever occur? Senator Benson Senator? I serve a Jack Kennedy, New Jack Kennedy. Kennedy was a friend of mine, Senator you're, no Jack Kennedy just absolutely brutal. So here's the thing: That again, I remembered that I've used it as a as a Youtube link
toward her many times in responding to people. But the thing that made that whole exchange so great, is that until last night I thought that that was Lloyd, Benson being spontaneous came up with it on the fly and just like owned him, and it wasn't. His advisers, including from whom my beloved cat was named after we're trying to get him to say this in debate prep for weeks, because he was not saying, Benson was not seen as a great debater. He was not terribly telegenic in his own view, I'm not judging him and they were like this is the winner, and so the thing is he landed. On the one hand, I was a little bummed to know that he didn't come up with it on the fly, but also stoked, because he landed. Champ, that's it ticket. It has brought you buy
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May we just given some examples like it? I dont think you think they carry lost import because generous observer job against Germany and we know Benson deliver that hammer blow. But then the Duke arguments into your got clobbered, but do they get like do how impact what'd they get? It is in fact photo. I think if your candidate is strong, if your presidential candidate, a strong, the VP debate, isn't that impact for I think if they are not doing great, that's how your VP does just maybe sway people more. I mean like. I think that if my pants and I'm in here did pretty badly, I was gonna, make the argument for having picked pants and that's why they won but like it's, not people were just really not smart. This time and so now I dont think that I think it is for its interesting for us to watch. I think that if George Bush had not been as strong and credentials as he was doing and quail becoming,
The wide item Oji like dear and headlights would have: more but like ultimately like his wife, Bab said when talking about how really terrified she was of Germany for our own, because Ferrara was so great on the campaign trail, but that ultimately, people do not vote for the vice president. So I think that if Bush had been weaker had not been as popular, the quail performance might have mattered more, but I think it's interesting for people to watch. I dont know that it moves the needle that much Do you think you are, and I think that's right. I think that its it does. Matter as much pulled the debate itself. I think the vice presidential election overall does not matter as much politically as people who talk about a rival politics reliving tend to suggest, but it can matter
the margins, and I think it's less about how an enforceable choice- and it is about momentum, because the sequence of debates has been increased in recent years. First debate in presidential candidates, vice presidential bait. Second, presidential debate through presidential debate: and in both the carry race and the Obama RE election race that vice presidential debate matter and son, because Carrie has performed very well in the first debate against Bush and was seen as having one so the Edwards have performed well, it would have continued their momentum for at least another week or so because every Scott clobbered it allowed Bush to resuscitate some momentum. Two thousand and twelve Obama did not perform well in the first debate against round me He was at the Bay hashtag danger guys us exactly. And our campaign was really- and that was the first time me and Romania momentum in months and was rising. The poles raising more money for problems
more enthusiastic, and then that binding Ryan Debate happened. If Biden had done poorly in that debate, it would have given Ronnie, more momentum, Hetty into the next debate and maybe a better chance. It upsetting Obama. You don't hard to know exactly how that would work, but it does like it happens at a relatively important juncture and the performance does matter. So I think it at least will be something that the Biden campaign considers that we take all of this. Better. The readiness question we ve been through the governing punish aggression is politics. It I'm gonna, talk temporary bacon about what the data says, I, what is your God say about how much this decision will actually matter? In rather Joe Biden becomes president or not what kind of resin he'll be, but whether we actually wants election ha. Here's what I mean to say- and I say this knocking all the one in my house. I say it is the person who bought array.
Coat before our outdoor election night event in Chicago, because I thought by buying a raincoat I would not jinx us for having this act were. Then I think that by means selection isn't about him winning it's about by how much he wins. That's what I think I mean that amount of messing. I told you, I know, son everything I just knocked on my head. Ok, I just but like did you want me to lie? That's what I think don't like yourself by major could keep calm in the loop about the farm. I are friends. The most important parts are about what kind of my present this person in politics are actually directly related that because, if you screw up the first two questions that it impacts the third question apart, but it does matter on the Martians and in a raises are one on the margins and there
lots of reasons to believe, despite what the pole say today, that this could end up being a very close race, and so I want to make me don't undermine the entire purpose of the three of us, as we just did by saying it doesn't matter. As it does matter, medicine give corset, where's it S. Hu. Thank you for listening. This was inconsequential. Once the decision has been made. The final step in the process is telling the world, but the decision is you help plan both Brok, a bomb in John, carries announced for the vice presidential fix what your recollection of how they did. It add whether you thought there was I'm so John Kerry picks John Edwards. He makes the decision. The fourth of July weekend, specifically because he thinks the press isn't gonna, be paying attention again. Not a lot of social media back in two thousand forest people actually did sort of like quieted down during the holidays. So it's John Edwards John Kerry makes the announcement on the sixth of July. The event with the Edwards is gonna, be on the seventh but
We had on the sixth, you know again like we ve talked about so much of this revolves around private lanes and trying to get people around where they need to be so we had to have a I've plain on standby couldn't tell the charter company, where the plane would be going, which, by the way, is a very nice charter. Company accepts very difficult thing to do. They had to sign Andy's once we were going to tell them what what city we're gonna, be going to to pick up the person and take them wherever they were going. This was the same in two thousand, eight, so John Kerry makes his announcement on the sixth, the press, or head over to George Town, where John Edwards in his very telegenic family, leaving to go to Pittsburgh, where John Kerry and his family are. It was really scripted. Edwards was not to talk to the press. No one in the family went to talk to the press. They were just supposed to like look.
Great and wave and get in the car and go so then the next day was like the big, like you made fun of me last time when I said, like the big time magazine cover kind of day, we'd, better everyone's wearing neutral tall and look. They look really good and like the beautiful ticket and family, that's going to lead the country We did our big rally with Edwards and then that was that end, like I said around, that this meant so much of what we were doing was meant to be secret and be a surprise. The people who printed the placards that we have also discussed, revealed three different potential choices, you carry Gebhardt Caravel, sack, carry gram and carry Edwards, even the people who printed those four versions of placards had to sign Andy's, because we didn't want them to tell anybody who the final
four might be even though the New York Times more than had that covered and then with Barack Obama. We minimum more sort of trim down version because, as you know, Brok Obama does not like anything that is over the top and the truth is the more over the top the harder it is to execute. Well, I know that we told people by text cause? I read about it, but I don't remember it and I don't think I signed up for the text, so I didn't get it. Since your first text in two thousand and thirteen, if I remember correctly right after you set up my twitter account, that's right now get me so prolific and then Barack Obama we all agreed. Obviously all of us had conversations that without it, even knowing, if it was gonna, be Joe Biden, I think
we all agreed that the symbolism of bringing full circle to Springfield. You know where we had launched the campaign made good sense and again. Charter plain pick them up and Wilmington pick them up at some small airport outside of Philadelphia and Pfeiffer, think there were a lot of violence that came with us that day. I think that a plane full abiden this, which was so little complicating when you're, trying to be like small footprint, but at that point, like you know, people already knew that it was them because we had texted the world about it again. Like our event, if you look back, it was, ours was much more parents, much more simple, but still the enthusiasm and excitement that it was meant to garner. It did, and probably some good fundraising as I recall so that the Turks things interesting so every campaign in recent years and try to leverage the pin- being announcement to get people to sign up for whatever their communications method of choice, so carry stole them
one he was going to announce it by e mail to give us answers email. I forgot two thousand and eight we want, if you sign up for tax, because we wanted to zero, text in relation to, maybe because what also you wanna get their cell phone number see. You can add to your database as you. Reach out to them about volunteering, about registering Devoe turning out to vote. All of the above. And so we said we hinder by text. We were gonna, send the text, first thing Saturday morning and dealt with by would be Saturday but what happened was CNN. Wait wait into the night on Friday night reported that it was. By now they sort of reported it based. No one in Biden World, I believe, had told CMS, but I think- The two other people in the West have been told that they were not going to be a sort of my process of elimination, knowing their theirs I repeat that secret coastline greatly, when their token, they know, they're, not gonna, be the GPA, and
So I've seen an reported it and we have. This was a huge debate that was happening among The digital tv aim myself and plot a bow, we do like. When do you send a text like a thing we care so much about? As we said, we were going to be the ones to tell our supporters first right, we're until then John reports and so under orders of potential firing, basically placenta, almost visa team. You cannot confirm this to any reporter until, The text goes out, and so I did not go to bed. Then entire night we ve actually made the decision to send the text and three. I am because it had become untenable, thou Romney try to similar traffic that he was going out through his campaign Hap which, seem clever on its face by really made almost no sense and then Donald Trump in a very on Broadway did something
had no essential values. Is he just tweeted his answer out, so you having sort of ours, I hope you won an election actually does it help you get volunteers and voters that whole conversation, perhaps too, onto boring about an email Jane. I was out about acts twelve years ago, speaks to wipe what companies are trying to get this right. The first and most important thing is they want to grab the nations attention and hold it for as long as possible, which is why you preventing us. When you do the announcement, then you ve taken up some sort of bus tor boat or some sort of planes, trains or automobile store across Amerika, with the two of that break. Is that don't get coverage both these you wanna leverage it for organization, which is why you do things like giving Osanna protection emails. But I have to ask you as the and I describe as a former Liddy expert on the vice presidential selection process. You have planned two of these announcements
What advice would you give to the binding about how they are to make this announcement when this decision has been made sap? I obviously have thoughts I leave the social media stuff to you like how you would maybe like tee it up and actually communicate the choice. So if I were to do the event for Joe Biden and I were going to tell him what to do, one we are in July August. Twenty twenty is the one huh, fifth anniversary of the ratification of the Nineteenth amendment giving women the right to vote. He is picking a woman. This is some low hanging fruit would include it in my announcement in some way, at least, if it means waiting until August first to say this month is so important, and here I am acknowledging it and this woman is going to be the first woman to be vice president. I think that would be important
the thing that you want to communicate, which will be hard and will take some financing, is like momentum and excitement and enthusiasm, and I think that that will be very hard if they can't have a crowd which day, more than likely, cannot have a crowd when they do. The announcement do some like big, energetic speech. So if I were the by campaign and if they want to hear more, they can just tweet at me. I would for something really beautiful and symbolic and something that's just gonna like take people's breath away. I don't know this might sound trite, but honestly it's when I was thinking about it. This was the first and that came to mind if you have. Joe Biden either in downtown Manhattan or New Jersey, and you have the statue of liberty, In the background- and they d like a very serious speech about the future of America, and why this is such an important peck such an important election? I think it could be really powerful and beautiful and symbolic
you have liberty is a statue and sewed Donald Trump obviously will have feelings about that, but I think that that's what I would do. I think that, if I'm buying, you're all the things in your announcement. That Trump is not. You are a dignified. You are a statesman. You are doing an event that is about you, but more about the country and sort of like a path forward. I think that's probably what I would do. Four usual that super interesting. So smart is totally logistically impossible to have the of traditional in Susie as an images that around these packs right, my huge crowds were Obama. Buying huge grounds for carrying Edwards appears, That's traditionally would you do that you can have a busted. You go places like that's not available to you, so what Make you're right, you swerving the exact opposite direction, which is be serious right,
but I think, like you too, maybe this situation where you'd either you find the sort of beautiful backdrop it you talk about without a crowd in our even covered version of a crowd or you do it in front of flax. I like that, like by adding that bind us in a lot of things with traditional flag backdrop which is both to signify to the viewer into the press like this, is a serious speech ran a campaign but the flags up here during this year, speech, and these are serious time so so doing at that way as good the you thought I had his wine. You would probably do, a gazillion joint media interviews Gath that, because the only way you're gonna be due to reach people is by being seen everywhere and often and oftentimes like the sequence of this, is you wait a week and do a joint sixty minutes interview a sort of it, but now you just gonna jump into all of it because you can't tore the country in know what a lot of local press and the other thing is. This sort of email, twitter campaign
TAT sort of temper. We ve always panes. Wasn't me a lot of really terrible your ideas like they should announce it on Tik Tok. Now, whenever I do, you live, and I think that is totally right if there is a clever way, like certainly have he was enough for tax, because you want to continue to build a database and other things like that, but I don't think there is some. First snazzy thing to do like these are serious scientists and serious election will end and all Oh, I just think it's like not a medium. That Biden would be comfortable in right, like that's, why, whether it's the flags or my stature of liver idea. I have some others all share with you later that, like you, need something where he feels like completely great in his skin and break. But it's like there is the fear that you know there's going to be some wacky digital ideas. That I mean we should just put in the in the trunk and after the good announcements over where we were all craving b.
Normalcy of campaigns and those aren't coming, and we should give that up his folk overdue right now. Ok, when we come back, two five thirty eight Perry Bacon. That's the ticket is broadly by beekeepers Natural's. Beekeepers is on a mission to reinvent your medicine cabinet, with clean remedies that actually work starting with immune support, their best selling product propolis throat spray. I use them today. I have just read it now. John John is proper listening right as we speak. It's your daily defence when it comes to supporting your immune health and soothing sore and scratchy throats, never heard of problems before it's an antioxidant ridge be product with powerful, germ fighting properties, and it's always nice to see. You have on the zoom and its here, Quick Ripley coming,
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Article dot com, slash cricket and the discount will be automatically applied at check out. That's article dot com, slash crooked, to get fifty dollars off your first purchase of a hundred dollars or more. I am now joined by Perry, Bacon, Junior, a senior writer at five, thirty, eight parry, we're coming on! That's the ticket. Thanks are medium How have you on we've known each other for a long time, but you wrote a great piece titled. The debate over binds Vp Pic is full half truths and misleading arguments which I guess we get supposed. That is Europe debates on politics now, but in that article you divide, sort of the there three main schools of thought bright, and I want to sort of Go through those with you and talk about the data underlying then and what is really at stake here. So, let's these wanted at time. So I want to say: one of the schools of thought you talk about is something called debates, the warrant thought right: people who want Elizabeth warrant. How did they make
argument in what daddy is there to back it up. So the peace was kind of train argue that nobody is making an elect oral claim about why there were four candidate is best but in reality the electoral claim was often more contested verses. They visit as a clear set of ideological other claims, so the Warren claim in it was, in other words that basically, she is the most popular candidate with Democrats overall and that she is ethically, that was Canada with younger people and that she is more popular than Camilla Harris with younger black people, and I think there is some evidence for those things you Paul Democrats generally and ask them
who is the most popular Vp Canada Eugene Warrant is generally ahead. Of that I mean in them. Is that further Quichua, Bob Zoellick as key above the rubber president, so her name ideas, obviously much lower, but it does suggest worn in Camelot. Did rubber president and warrant Hezbollah more popular than her and when you break them down in terms of black voters that, because we're having this at a proxy to data where they need a black VP or not, and the numbers into show that worn in Kamel are basically even among black voters. The? U S and who do you want to see is a beat the dvd and when you break down there's a few positive showed younger black voters amber those poles, oftener younger people of color and activity. That warrant is more popular than Harris among that group and there's a relevant group, because all the data we ve seen that is really broken down. Black voters, suggested Biden is really strong with the over forty five crowd and sort of weak with younger black voters.
We are those under thirty. So, if that, if them that the biggest electoral weakness for buying potentially is younger people, maybe younger people of color, the case might be for war and more than anything more than Harris, particularly Abrams tells you do well in these younger people of color poles to Ireland. Too much these surveys again, Susan Rice, Quichua, bottoms, val things did not run for president and do not have high. Name idea in that way, so I think, is a little unfair them in terms of the war in Kosovo debate. I think it. The broader point here might be We should not assume that black voters necessarily favour or a deeply incline towards a black VP anymore than other Democrats are So that gives me to the second. Your second group, which is the case for a black woman on the candidate as we talked about on, proves up, says: that's it take. It. Biden has pledged to pick a woman, and the question is: is it going to be a woman of cholera, specifically about
woman, and you are the Pisa there's. Some evidence of black turnout goes up on. There's a black candidate on the ticket, but some of that data can test can you explain what you mean there with the data shows so little political scientists have looked dead. Like City Council They legislator, mare and house, because it is now at a black people that have run for senator or governor or president. Obviously So in those raises in general, like like Mayor City Council House, the racism, we have lots of black, in general, black turn out goes up slightly. If there's a black candidate running, compare a White Canada, there is some either there are some scholars who say that evidence has been overstated a little bit and say that at this a lot more, that's not a confident as we think it is, and it is a little bit more and it may relate more to the first round of black candidates who ran for things in the seventies and eighties, and maybe less
we are now than we had more more rounds of black hands. In other words, like the first time, people get a both for a black person and they were very excited by the media. Explain some of those studies, but those studies are of a black candidate running for office in the black given to themselves. Nothing worth noting, of course, is that we had a black presidential candidate run into. Does each doesn't well and black turnout for in the? U S is about sixty five percent in o eight and he doesn't well. It was around sixty percent in two thousand for Anti. Doesn't sixteen so at their present level, a black candidate whose you know this one man at least was inspiring to black voters in a unique way. The the challenge here is that with the weak, don't we don't really have much evidence for what is a black running may do for a white candidates
Really had never had that study any re railway before the other challenges that we have five people and is not clear that we can, even if you say we want to have a black woman increase black turn out. We have five different black womb, we're talking about here, val Di Meanings, Camilla Harris, Quichua, bottoms, Stacy, Abrams, Susan Rise. I like Susan Rise. I respect Susan rise unless you're Susan Rice would show up here and tell you she's an increase black turn out. She's ever run for offers of war, I'm not sure she would be covered to say the verses Stacy Abrams has run for governor when a state full of black peoples in camels from California, Abraham Quichua bottoms their Wednesday. Why? So, even if you said, there's some kind of black female are black turnout effect. I think would be hard to argue it's the same
for all five women in a similar way mean. Ultimately, one of the challenges here is mean. Certainly at a national level. Is it's a sample size so one per head in a sample size of zero when it comes to the running mate does not mean unfair because it wasn't fully addressed in your piece but Is there any sense of how runny maids of affected turn out in the past, whether its among certain groups, you know? Obviously we have two examples of women being on the national ticket. For women did not. There was not a effect in terms of turn out or in terms of both percentage, with Geraldine Ferrara or with Sarah Palin, nay, you. Those are not great examples either because those are sort of oh Mary, picks where the person was sort of losing and trying to get some kind of big buzz. There is some evidence that pale and help slightly with even telecles in
A sort of boosting Mccain would even so is not so the other evidence we have on Vice President Is- and this is a little contested as well, but the general evidence is that you get two to three points in your home state by picking a person for vice where those meaning Amy Clovis, our might get Biden, two more points in Minnesota, so in general, DP effects are very contested, but there is some small evidence. But again I don't think there's a strong evidence. We can say much about blacker, latino, be peace for those groups, because we ve had no black religion. BP nominees. Then. The third group you talk about is the not warrant upright, which essentially argues that Elizabeth Warren would be the
because she's to progress ever to polarizing. Whatever the case, these people are making saying that she would be a net negative on the ticket because of some sort of voters that Biden might be targeted can explain that. So this part of the peace with a little bit less electoral, but I basically made the case in in Iris. Begging me closer was made. It will mean to her, but I made the case that when she went on that night and say we must pick a woman of color because you know because it was happening in the world. We to heal the country right now. I think they're a fair amount of like more centre as Democrats who are so of uncomfortable with Warren because they disagree with her own palace and so they were for a more moderate person. Kamel is more moderate. Susan rises more moderate in their view, and I guess what I was hinting at is that may be that they are sort of using the women of color case to sort of knack dance. May they disagree in terms of like woodwork,
and heard the ticket. We see a lot of poles, that of Kosovo compared Biden, Warren Biden, Harris Bite, enclosure and those pole, of all showed pretty similar results and most the ones I've seen it showed Warren Bide and doing the best, but I think there might be again because war and has higher name, I d, but there is very little evidence in the data right now that war and what kind of dragged down the ticket. I know it seems conceptually obvious Warren is more left, so you might lose kind of more centrist people who, like binary, turn off by heart. Don't see that in the numbers yet, and I think that might be, because people sort of no the vice president is not driving policy, and so they might be fine was move.
Vice president who they might have been nervous about. For president, I mean just this basic that may sound like use. Who is even a data bank? You explain it most chippy tween name ideas in how one of these cases might be doing in these hypothetical vice presidential poles. Yes, in general, in poles, like you know, you ve, using a pod, save America deal if you re five, thirty eight, you probably know who Quichua bottoms is. You might know who val dimming? Is you if we know is with warrant, is but a lot of voter? A lot of people will me pull even democrats do not know who these people are so automatically. If you ask Democrats for who should be the vp- and you include Quichua bottoms and val dimming in you- include worn and Harris the little bit unfair because most of the policy,
Warren Harris ran for President in war and was very famous before the so they have about. Ninety percent of Democrats and most these poles know who Warren and Harris are. We are taking a key issue bottoms you talking about. I think one service I saw show, like thirty percent of Democrats, had heard of her, and that may be changing it. She gets more coverage, but when you have that men, a disparity in terms of name, I D, of course Warren is gonna, be the favourite even among black Democrats, most black people who do not know who Quichua bottoms is so in that sense, so these poles are showing up the people who heard of key show bottom she's doing pretty well. But if you ask me people in random on a phone call. Do you support worn for beep you this person, you ve, never heard of they will say Warren. This sort of get said the larger point of your peace, which is that the daddy is quite hypothetical at best right. Anyone can find any peace adapted and make their argument anyway,
who is pact as the vice presidential, namely whether it is less our common Harris, these Abrams, or he shall lions bottoms, urville demonstrators and rice that person's going I represent nay mighty seven days after they are packed in a bull dramatically, change how it is the right but the other Almah. This is we ve all he had a pretty small number of presidential elections are very long period of time in american history and politics and she's pretty fast. So this is quite theoretical at best, would you say that yeah, so that peace was trying to say and look. Five. Thirty is a part of this more than anybody else. Probably the peace was trying to say everybody is arguing about the VP process through sort of electoral ism. With these sort of claims about our gas be better for this kind of Oda Argh as it is, and I was sort of saying we don't really know we have a
any amount of evidence, but he's BP claims. Why don't we com them down slightly, and my argument was a lot of the black people are saying black, like Jim Kleiber, to saying we need a black person and he's hinting at black turner, but I think Jim Kleiber really wants to see a black woman the ticket. He thinking a lot of black men think forget about electoral politics. We do everything possible for this party every four years every two years, Why don't you guys give us something- and you know Kamel Unhappily commentators is very extremely qualify. We have a black female senator who ran for president and ran a credible campaign. If the Democratic Party wants to show it, black women. Here, someone here's what you can do that so that's the case there really making when you get to the centres there are really saying is look. This is a country that is, sure as we want to have a centrist person can have on deck. For president after Joe Biden, we don't want Elizabeth warrants, our person, necks and in the left party. The party saying: look you guys pit
violent wee wee wee wee eaten by an already. Can you at least give us something for VP that I'll get us excited death What's really going out we're having a sort of a shadow boxing and in USA, this every debate in Washington the whole time we were there bore masking their own views through electoral others, there's nothing new rights in a sort of annoying. At times I was just trying to make sure for people who are not plugged into this. Here's like what really going on and what we always need to buy their innocent. I was trying to get up and one of the things it's hard leg. There is a incredibly strong case for representation right, not just for pay back for previous support, but because it is a very important way in which we can move. The country right and you know it. We listen idle authorization about Geraldine froze vice presidential candidate. What that meant for a whole generation women. You can imagine how a black woman being on the national ticket Leslie change perceptions right quickly for our young people about what is possible in this country beta like we can't know what will happen with turn out right, but those
The other question that I think has been changed by what's happened in American the last few months, which is what if Biden, doesn't pick a black woman right like what is that conversation? I can do you think we're everything that has happened over the last few months with ours, sort of national reckoning with structural racism, changes the backdrop for that decision for by MRS the hardest question I've been thinking about, because if you look at the polls even pose George for protest. Black people are not demanding a black VP with eighteen. Do you know if you look at the polls, you do you care about having a black black, the personal color, a black running me. Black voters are sort of like thirty percent A very important the rest say somewhat import. It's not like black people are opposed to it, but it's not as if there are sort of dry. So it's weird norm to say we have to have a black. The peak of the question is: is this question almost assumes the black gps for black
all right and maybe I'm wrong, but I think is an assumes that, and I don't think that's exactly right and if you go and if you went to one of these protests, the less how much I respect Kamel ambiguities protests, you're, not hearing people say: let's sin: the prosecutor to the White House: that's not exactly the messages they're giving so even if you say black and you know, even if we really have to say to me with in on. Even if we say it might be a moment for a black woman, we pick one of these people still I don't know, I think the moment is a complicated for Val dreamings or common law because of the with the protesters are really protests in some ways is how long forest, retreats black people, and they have some concern. Someone else to real concerns about what counts. Com Allah has done a vertical
and they probably would not accept avail doings who is a sheriff is well setting. Debt complication is there. At the same time it is the Democratic Party, the party where, like one bite and promised there will be a woman that was a nod to the Democratic Party, is a party that is majority female. In the same way, the Democratic Party is about forty percent non white, and so even before George Floyd, I would argue, is gonna, be awkward for the party that religion he talks about its diversity, all the time to have two white people, and I do think- and it made me want to things- riled- actually say that a lot of white Democrats I talk to really don't want to see in all white taken. It may be that I think in some ways I try to think more about diversity in this way with we need. You see these Paul's. We now have the democratic parties, not just black,
people demanding diversity and white peoples or minorities demand ever seen while standing there, you grisly, had. I think a lot of white Democrats be uncomfortable with a as uncomfortable as black Democrats me more uncomfortable with an all white ticket black people are here. I think I remember seeing pulling in the primary that showed white liberals the most uncomfortable with a mostly white democratic field at the end, and then backwaters overwhelming supporting Joe Biden, who is most definitely white and so like at eighty seven more complex than that. I do think one more thing, and this is the river. Is black? Voters are somewhat nervous about Elect
ability in their focused on that and if you have I went down to south to enter my guess is: I would find the black voters are nervous. The camel or a black woman. The ticket will help trump black voters, heavy deep cynicism about their fellow Americans, racial views and our nervous that their fellow Americans may not be excited about having a black woman. The ticket, like their debt, is part of us going on here. Is black voters, see war and his white and the other people is not, and they think that I've heard this disgusted warrant is safer and I don't agree with this, and I think that the data supports it and you guys one twice. I think I think that fellow black people are overly pessimistic about the racism. A country, but I'm not going to convince them of that and I sort of- and I think that is underlining this is like a black person- is a risk, look how they treated brok. Paraguay
Thank you so much for joining us on that's a ticket. I hope everyone region article. It was super fascinating and it really helps us explain what we know in what we do not know about what this decision is politically emblems. The finnish, I should say I was and is the star, but you know I cover politics all this time because politics twenty years, I met a lot of people who are very smart and other people who have also who work that's more. Who does we're famous because they in other daughter went to yell asked what have you. I would say this like I've been excited damn doing this, because my car covered the Obama campaign to cover the Obama Lighthouse dared, not always love my coverage Indiana Time was quite honest about their, but usually Eddie was right and off he, and whenever we talk I learned a lot about politics from Dagestan and when the smartest people I know of analysing them in Pakistan, is one the sharpest people I know about politics, I'm excited beyond Sorry he's doing this, I think people have learned a lot from his thoughts. These last four years
turned me. I appreciate it well was very, very nice yo you and I apologize for how direct my honesty was at times, even if even it it was sometimes both the product of nothing, often enough in the morning when I sent the email and being overly crabby? So thank you so much Craig our analysis, I'm gonna, give you a choice, tat you ready for this YAP You can do one of two things here for others nurse on this, these serious finale of that's the ticket. You can either give us your guess for who you think turbine will back not happy that you should take what you think he will back or You can right here and now reveal the name of the flashy lint tend to be joint areas vice president, but you know tat. I could never do that, because that would be uncool
and the whole reason that anyone's ever. Given me, any good should do in my life is because I'm discreet not anymore, but I was back then so I have to, maintain my oath to John Kerry of being discreet. So I will tell you that I think Joe Biden is going to pick Susan rice. Woe what a tech all right, we'll see if you're right, thanks for letting me out to dry you, mother, Fucker, funding gameless, does have Elizabeth the plank yet The plan now is not the plan was employed. People want to know what you think We have, to be honest, I feel very hesitant to do this for two reasons. One I gave up predictions like very explicitly like its enacted. The entire theme of pod save America. Is that rather the protection game, so I have
Discomfort with that, but since I've watched you down this blank, I feel like. I should also jumping to depend, I had to guess, based on no insider knowledge with no opinion. And on whether this is the right picked or the wrong book, and the context that I think There is no one on the west on Joe Biden list as we understand it. That would be a bad selection to guess what Joe Biden would do, I would guess it. He would pick calmly, sir we'll see if one of us is right also. Caveats you said applied to what I said, but I just didn't use that much heir to the test. Buffer myself all around potential carnatic bad pick. Per usual. You accomplish a lot more than me unless Tyler Thou art, everyone, Thank you so much for illicit active, that's the ticket. It has been a blast talking to you all about the vice
central selection process and Alyssa. We can't wait to talk to you again on pod save America after this choices, I cannot waits. Hopefully it is by everyone. POD save America is a crooked media production, the exact producer is Michael Martinez. Arson in producers, Jordan Waller its extant edited by Andrew Chadwick, Kyle, so it is our sounded junior. The tiniest terminator k, long roman puppet Dimitrios, Caroline resting Annalisa Gutierrez for production support into it. We'll team Eliza, CO, normal Conan, Yell freed in my look him who film and upload these episodes is videos every week.
Transcript generated on 2020-07-24.