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“Trump’s Covid confessions.”


Trump confesses to Bob Woodward that he intentionally downplayed the severity of the virus for the last six months, the western United States is on fire because of climate change, and dueling advertising strategies tell us how the Trump and Biden campaigns see the race. Then Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio talks to Jon about the Latino vote in Florida.

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
The presenting sponsor are pod, save America Zapruder School, started again and we'd like to take a moment to honour those who educate our nations youth teachers. It takes a lot to be a great teacher. Leadership list an problem. Solving skills. Does it help like children, so how do you find the best people for your teaching positions or any other positions, are higher in four zip recruiter? Zipper Peter does pendant candidates, finding you it finds them for you zip recruited powerful technology funds, people with the skills and experience that match your job and actively invite them to apply, which is why you should try zip recruiter for free, zip, recruiter, dotcom slack cricket zipper critter even lets. You add screening questions to filter candidates, you get the top ones for your job fast. In fact, for it, if I've employers supposed tons of get inequality candidate within the first day,
from teaching and transportation and technologies. If recruiter, makes hiring faster and easier for a variety of industry, see for yourself tries it recruited for free, dipper, critter dotcom such crooked, that zip recruiter dotcom, slash cricket, This is a wise changing election. This turn what America's gonna look like for a long long time. Is the most important election in the history of our country. Welcome the positive miracle, I'm John Favour, Andean Pfeiffer. On today's plot, I talked to Carlos Audio of excess research was done, the most extensive research of any pollster on the lifting of especially the lifting of own Florida before that about trumps taped confession to Bob Woodward, but he intentionally downplay the threat of covert nineteen, the cat
the crisis that currently engulfing the West coast in flames and what they in Trump advertising strategies tell us about the state of the race for minors I don't miss. This week's episode of save the world where Tommy and been talk about Donald Trump, denigrating american service members, the poison of russian opposition leader Alexey Novotny new trouble for breaks it the controversy involving Disney's New MILAN film also, if you not already subscribed to hysteria, haven't had time to listen and awhile. Aaron, listen in the crew have put out some truly outstanding episodes in recent weeks with Gaslight Congresswoman, I hadda Presley in legendary actress and activist Jane Fonda, so go check it out where we get your podcast finally we have eight weakens left between now and the election, so please adopt state sign up for those volunteer shifts and phone banks, sure you do not wake up on November. Fourth, wishing you had done, more
you talked about a grand stated vote, save America, Dotcom, Slash, adopts the votes, have Merrick He will send you everything you can do between now and the election you'll be plenty busy. Every time. Freaking out go to if America there there's a lot to do their work will also had something to do for cask. A follow up question sure. What's a weekend just as it does any any randomly chosen two days in a week in which you are also in your house can be, or we can't get up at the same time, do most of the same things read the same tweets. You know it's all the same skip the news on Wednesday. We learn then in a series of taped conversations with journalists Bob Woodward between February in July, Donald Trump. It'd that he intentionally downplay the furtive cover. Nineteen even He knew all along the virus was deadlier than the flu and dangerous to children.
That is, of course not what he's been saying publicly for the last six months. Here's a quick out from the Lincoln Project that place trumps comments to Woodward back to back with what he was saying about the virus publicly at the time. Let's take was more deadly. This is five per You know this is five percent versus one percent. Less than one percent of this deadly stem, we shall tastes ninety, nine percent of which are totally harmless. Old labour mobility of young people. Young people are also immune to this disease is also more deadly than you're. You don't hear even your strenuous lose lose thousands and thousands of people a year to the flu. We don't,
turn the country I wanted to always play it down. I still like laying down so these comments came as part of eighteen, separate interviews. The trump gave word for his new book. Rage will through some of the other, very normal things. Trumps said toward word in a bit better. Neither comments about the pandemic are the most damning because the power knowingly lie to the public about the severity of a virus that has now killed almost two hundred thousand Americans. Well, what was your reaction to these comments I know we're not supposed to be shocked anymore by anything, but this is pretty damn shocking. Is it made on every level of it, but you have the president on tape, admitting that he lied to the american people, and people died as a result made This is not anonymous. Sources tell sketchy forward now: disillusion trump aid, something this is Donald Trump.
Tape, saying that he downplayed the virus enlightened american people it is made, it is open and shut in, is incredibly to Serbia in the consequences are devastating I think I see life lot was, of course, Trump lied. We We all know that, but I think there was always a question as to whether Trump was just lying to himself to the airport. The virus is if he was just action: thinking it's not that bad. I'm gonna buy a bunch of conspiracies that you know wackos on Fox. Tell me, and it's actually going to be fine and he's in a bubble, know that none of that is true. He knew he knew how deadly it was. No, it was harmful to children. As he's talking about opening fucking schools and our children are almost immune. It is so damning because the President knighted states like by lying to people by concealing information that he knew it absolutely kill pit kill people.
Like we would not have believed trompe their way anyway, because we don't you know most Democrats, don't don't believe Donald Trump after four years. A lot of independence, don't believe Trump after four years. Think about his own supporters right who listen to this guy, who believe the sky, and you turn on your tv and Donald Trump- tells you not to worry about this virus down trump tells you that it's not that deadly, that it's no worse than the flu. Donald Trump tells you that a can't kill children, and then you go make decisions in your own life. Based on what this guy told you, who you trust it for the last several years. And then you contract a virus and you doc. That is what we're talking about here is just as it is, is black and white. Is that it's interesting though I use it because we every even tromp supporters, summons from supporters. Take what he says with the grain of salt by these sort of see him as in. I think, a lot of the press in this way which is like he is this on.
But he is sincere. Rightly. He is lot like the words he saying are inaccurate in their lives, but they bespeak a leg what he's actually feeling my he is. He does not want to believe that this is bad, so he is convinced himself. That does not. So he is. But what it gradually funny you're as its he undertook a very specific and deliberate strategy. Two. Why? In order to minimize the political and economic impact of what would happen right, keep the stock market upkeep us pull numbers up and people, including children, die so because he so unable to think through the causes. It says to anyone other than himself. In any situation that you end up in this place. Men, it is the most stunning thing are president, has ever set on tape, and I include the Watergate tapes in that. It also. This is the sort of a smaller thing, but it blows up his entire China. Defence, where Said the China lied to us, China did this, we. Know how bad it was the child he knew. Of course,
knew how bad it was give blamed sign up for this. He was sitting right there, knowing how deadly it was, and he just decided to downplay because, as he said, he'd likes to downplay So, in response to this trump defended, his meant by telling way has reported on Wednesday quote. I I dont want to create panic It was it was it was. He didn't want to create panic. The easily transmissible airborne virus. That's deadlier than the few. Don't panic about that. You know the old saying, don't say airborne and a crowd of theatre like he'd its. It isn't sake as this is not like. There are things you say that could create panic like use, rather everyone's gonna die by what he's instead doing as he is refusing to give people the information they could use to save their life right he's. Not now that is either saying fire quietly or loudly in a crowded theatre. He's not say
fire at all. In fact, he's telling everyone everything solely gonna be fine in people died as a result, its also mean yet Trump legendary for not wanting to cause The guy, who tells you every day, the Joe Biden in his anti army or like coming to destroy the suburbs. This is this- is Someone who wants to cause panic. Also, you know Gregg Sergeant the Washington Post point said today. The reason the trump didn't want to come as panic- and we know this from reporting and from what he said before. I didn't want to panic. The stock market, if you don't want to hurt his re election chances, that's as
dual olive crumbs excuses are not about everyone else. It's above himself, it's the same thing. He said at the beginning of the pandemic. We said I dont want to test that much because the numbers make us look bad. He thought that if he told people the truth about how deadly this virus is that it would panic the stock market and that it would hurt his re election chances and he thought that, even though it was deadly, maybe he could just wish the whole thing away and he could skate by without being politically damage. That is exact. What happened? Donald Trump is no said this. On tape. There is reporting the back sit up from a million different sources. He said it a million times. That is the story of this whole pandemic. A pandemic hit. The guy was worried. It would hurt his re election chances, so he lied about it. Didn't matter of people died as a result. That's it! That's the story mean the thing about it is. It is not just that he is an incredibly selfish narcissist This is also evident, sees it incredibly stupid, selfish narcissists, because
if your view in this for the president, How can I get through this pandemic and still get elected there's only one answer to that which is solved. The problem manage deal with it. Minimize the the human toll minimizing impact the economy like actually solving the problem, but instead he decided in the most like short term, fail the marshmallow test way possible. Why did you take a short term benefit while making the Therefore, it making the pandemic worsen. Therefore, his re election less likely made it is he's so we were dark. That's runs a like obvious. It sounds. It that's quite eve. What he said. It is, but let's not forget how fucking stupid he is because, if even if you want- even if you so we focused on his own reelection. I didn't give a shit about the country, the way to ensure his reelection would have been to fix the virus and do the hard things- and we talk about this before you can about an entire scenario where everyone
Sally's around Donald Trump- even you know we still hate him. We still wouldn't vote for him, but, like a lot of people is country swing, voters, independent voters, all kinds, people would say you know what the skies ass over the last couple years, but he's trying really hard he's doing everything necessary for this virus. You can see it with democratic and republican governors across the country world leaders, it's it's actually even worse than that, because, like it, there is, is mythical. Hypothetical situation were Trump rose to the occasion for the first time, and only time and its entire life in like did a pretty good job which has never done literally anything at any point business in Tamer politics have done a job in anything, but there's a world where he just as the bear, fucking minimum right. Tells you can wear masks right. Does it side with armed protesters demanding the opening of subway sandwich- restaurants like he just as the fair minimum, but its work, but he d come
even do that he actually has to actively go out ass. He was on Twitter denied Entry to make sure that more people get sick and die right like It is so like when you put it Catholic. We all know this, you don't we don't need Babylon were to tell us this, but it is this once again. Another reminder of what he devastatingly stupid and dangerous person we have in charge of this country and perhaps the most dangerous time in nearly a century. So Joe Biden responded to the water revelations during the campaign event in Michigan, here's a clever by poverty schools aren't open right now, how many kids, our starting a new school year, the same way that the last one at home, how many parents filled and in an overwhelming how many frontline workers exhausted and pushed to the limits and how many- families I'm miss loved ones. Hundred table tonight, because
it is. Failures is beyond despicable, it's a dereliction of duty it's a disgrace, I got is a pretty strongly. Once again, they also turned around a digital had pretty quickly what else using the buying campaign should do with these once. This get me one situations where the bite binding escaping have to do less. To keep this in the news, because public borders on a next day, high profile newsletter the thing: it's amazing is this book there come out till Tuesday. It's like we're getting nearly a week of this, and what I think is good like having tactically simply doing the right thing. They put this top or at the front, and of his remarks on the economy. Michigan, recognising that you problems in a breakthrough in this plan to stop offshoring on the day the wooden revelations came out there. Additionally, it is important to make sure that people who did see this news in its organic forum will see it, but also
like about. It is the tone which is, I think, Biden has perhaps at his best when he demonstrates righteous anger on behalf the american people that's what that what's right, it is the flip side of by Tremendous decency and empathy is it he can get angry on behalf of others and that's what that felt like, and I thought it was a very very strong.
My first thought, when I saw that was that is the exact tone that binding should have in the debates, because Donald Trump is going to try to bait Joe Biden in these debates and I'm sure the trump people know that, in debates by analysing the primary debates buttons weakness, I would say that he could get very defensive. An angry, but it gets defence of an angry about his own record, about attacks on his own record attacks myself. There's a lot the down from can do to make you angry. You can either be defensive. You can be angry Donald Trump, I think either being angry trump or being angry, that he attacked by is on record, as is not good for binding. I think by being angry on behalf of the american people, because of what Donald Trump has done for the last four years is exactly the right tone for him to take. I do
What there was this whole debate that we had last week over the Atlantic story about Trump's comments, disparaging the troops and people said: will it really matter how much your people focus on it? We can go back and forth about that. This is different, because this is now the territory that Donald Trump doesn't want to be playing on, which is his response to the pandemic. It is his biggest weakness in this election. It is one of the top concerns, if not the top concern of voters right now, and people think that he badly badly mismanaged it and so keeping the pandemic in the news and keeping Donald Trump's response
in the news is up by arming a lotta predictions here. But it's not great for tramp. Tramp campaign is happy about doing this, and I saw this like I watch the stupid Fuckin Hannity interview of Donald Trump last night, which is like a waste of time, but I was watching Fox news for like ten to fifteen minutes before that, and it was notable that Haiti had to spend his entire show on the pandemic and not on cities burning and Joe Biden, Uncommonly Harris and the radical laughed also stuff like even on Fox. They had to spend an entire day talking about this, which, with fifty four is left of. The election is not good for Donald Trump. Now I mean this is one of the things that people are not going to miss. You are right, it has the potential to be like we don't. Protection has mentioned a beach mentally damaging and a couple of eggs. One It is another. Seventy ten days were tromp is not making the case for himself or a specific case against Biden he's just on the defensive flailing about sending out random tweets. But
also undermines the last remaining bit of credibility. Possibly had on this, which is using, he been able to commit some people that nodded days, but some swing voters that no one could have known about this right. This an act of God. It is a sudden. It happened to him right, and so here should not get for transport for, but you have unwanted admitting. He knew about an undermine his last remaining defence of his head on It is definitely not good for him. You know how bad it is. We were being a friend while they sleep, won't know the results of that in an eight weekends, or so you say, I think the most effective way to use it as not to say. Oh look: Trump lied about something in the past; it is to push it forward. We know he has. He is continually lying to us to this day about the severity of the pandemic and therefore we cannot trust the
man to lead us, as we are still grappling with the pandemic right. He is at like you to set he's on Twitter today, saying open school's right, because it's not a big deal in, like kids, are going to get in as we know, that's a liner. He there was this whole fucking debate where Conway Harris said yeah. Of course, I'm not gonna take Donald Trump word for it when it comes to have Actually I wanna make sure the scientists say the vaccine is safe in some people are saying: oh, she shouldn't have said that looks like she did not just from people like. I heard opponents it. It's fuckin ridiculous
Donald Trump. We just caught on tape lying about the severity of the pandemic and we're just going to take his word for it on a vaccine, that's crazy! That is crazy, so I do think like again: it's not just about Trump is bad and Trump has a bad character. Right, like I don't think, that's enough to win the election, I think it's Trump's character and his lies have consequences and they didn't just have consequences in the past. They have, they will have consequences going forward, and if you let this man, he will lie to you again and it will cause people to die? That is what is at stake in the election year. I mostly agree with that I really don't think guardianship determines a bad person. Everyone knows trumps about person like that is fully understood and manifestly obvious for everyone. I think it is. It is less about honesty than it is about credibility right. I think there are two different things which is people expect politician.
Do not tell the truth. Even people who liked your by right, you were seen as much more trusted than tromp, but there's this sort of view. The most politicians at the minimum put spin on the ball right in Trump we'd. Like everyone sort of nosey lies. I think it is about his the fact someone who is on a an unwilling to even acknowledge the problem, who is not strong enough to tell the american people what they know what they need to hear cannot of the problem, and so it's as much about credibility capacity is about the very specific bit of honesty. Democrats its, although what you lie about people expect positive, elaborate, all kinds of stuff to save their own asses life or death issues that could have consequences for people. You hope that your leaders don't lie about those things So it will not surprise you to learn that trumps covered confessions were not the only crazy shit that he or his staff told Woodward. Try
said that he likes to refer to Obama, who he called dumb and overrated, as quote Barack Hussein, but wouldn't say that in front of him, when we were asked, if they both had a responsibility to, but it better understand the anger and pain of black Americans Trump said. No, you really the cool, I didn't you just listen to you. While no, I don't feel like that at all trump went on at length his chemistry with Kim Jong own saying. Their relationship was like a quote fantasy film, in that I'm the only one he smiles with. He also said quote my fucking generals are a bunch of pussies in Rome. The existence of a secret new weapons system that nobody in the world knows about something. He told a reporter on the record: let's start with why in the hell did Trump and his staff agree to talked above word in the first place, As someone who is someone who's dealt with Bob Woodward books in the white as about, why does it dealt with by were burning, he did to books on Obama.
By mostly dealt with the second woman, came out twelve, which was a really bad, but that was very wrong by many, things, but Bob Woodward- Is someone put aside from France and here's. How you end up talking about what word soap bubble? came in to meet with Jake Harney. He was oppressive. Your assignment item announced to us that he was right in this book, which we knew because he had already been copy of all around town, but he comes energies office. You know it. Bob Woodward is like really the most legendary rural famous West, probably in decades, if no industry, and he comes in here, Sits on me is very woke very personally about any sits on the couch and Jays Office said he. Makes him small talk, and then he opens up his like old, beaten down leather brief case in ITALY. X out a series of White Ass memos stamp confidential and just ways than out on the coffee table and he's like here
come into I've come into possession of these and I've read of the really interesting and thrilling stuff in here that I just. I don't I'm sure. There's another side to the story of these things are huge. Do you want to share? Maybe you don't really it's up to you guys really and then he then you know White House AIDS who have access and of toxic and clearance, have a safe in their office that you keep your Thompson frontier on. He gestures that J save me, like, I'm sure. Yes, some things in their that make clear up some of the questions I have you know, but If you want to show them to me, you show them to me it's up to you. I got a lot of stuff. A lot of people have been telling me things are interesting. How we do it and then you left. It's a big read you you just you like people like we made a decision to my house as every other one has is that you with men your cooperation, the best you good, where you would have you designate some people who worked on what worries me? What happened? We would record those conversations that we would have our own evidence of that and the four and then up
I would do an interview with the end, but one thing we did not do this just have the pebbles. Randomly dial up Woodward when he felt like it and just talk to over those data present it is say, like yeah, I guess it's one thing to club when people have already led to the reporter, but you know allowing eighteenth effort, interviews and a bunch of staff. Talk to him. I heard our Jared thought it was a great idea. That's that's pretty war that mean just seventy parts by this, which is just a magic tromp, each tromp issues like you know what I see Richard Nixon, an American cut out the middle man in just call would were directly like. Why make it work for it? That's a sort of efficiency you get when you put a business man in charge of the government will apparently I mean I also read, I think someone reported this vat trump was pissed about. The last word were book that he that his staffed and let him talk to word for the last one, and so he thought the way to make himself.
Better in this one was to talk more so her usual trump thinks the answer is always more trump and that he can fix it and he's too fuckin stupid to realise that the most damaging thing gonna end up in the book, is what comes from Trump himself, not the staff, even though there's plenty of damaging things from the south as well. I mean that the trick is with this. Would we're thing, and I know what you think of this. I think that the comments about the pandemic are by far the most damning and will probably be most lasting effect on the campaign, if at all, all the others just read and we could we could spend like ten minutes on each of those things I just read, and that's just a small portion of the regulations that are going to continue to spell out in the coming weeks. Do you think that maybe can be too many revelations for people to really digest? make a difference, you mean that, yes, that's true with all things in the trunk areas, there are too many revelations to focus on any individual one of them, but, as we know, from the polling and trams terrible prefer ratings. The people are paid
up. The general sense of things aren't going great and he's going to get it s job in this. So we emphasise that I mean I just want to go back to just how they will this all happened, it is no one got tricked here right leg, There are examples in time where. Sort of maybe naive, political aids or politicians, befriend a reporter or an author, and they may be sort of unburden themselves too much thinking that person is a friend Donald Trump as a criminal president dial up a person who famous entirely for bringing down a criminal president. They made a movie about it. I believe that one Oscars like no one gets king surprised here it's like Fox. Ain't you, our henhouse, we're just about it. It is, absolutely iron leave a wall that he did. This like you did,
He let down his guard with Bob Woodward, but The actual definition of somebody brings out a president I think this is more proof that the trump as incompetent and ineffective as president argument is more- powerful than any other argument, because I eat even Hannity Hannity last night is Talking to drop on the phone he's like, I would have told you not to sit down with Bob Woodward, which is the closest Hannity, gets too ever disagreeing with Donald Trump, and of course you know then then had to be set up and ask him a question like isn't a horrible. What he did to you, but Trump hat swing at the patch and be like. Well, let me tell you I did it. You know how to defend himself and then Carlson and his show when this whole thing would like. I can't believe Donald Trump sat down with any blame Lindsey, Graham for it, because apparently Lindsey Graham Broker the first meeting between Woodward and Trump or whatever
even getting shit on fox purely for being too stupid to sit down with work, which you know if that bleeds into the Fox Universe, that's pretty bad! I will say that it is very. It is very sad that Dumb Donald trumps Peace Prize nomination was overshadowed by all this news. Yesterday he woke up. It was a big day for him. He was. He was nominated by like a right wing politician and Norway for the Nobel Peace Prize. For the you deal, shadow is a bigger he. He retreated people congratulating him being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize about a hundred times. Up until the word revelations gave out so tough David, I tell you the big loser in this. Is it's actually me because I have been stressing for twenty four hours about what we to talk about today, is because of the Weeknd you got, you did that they pop goes on to say so. There's basically eighteen hours between when you finish reporting back podcast, an Iphone
reading the outlines. That's what I got my ass ever, the crack of dawn. I like poured through air the anger pass. We finally come up with some like off news topics that we could do did all of senator we went back and forth on it. Michael Jordan Way did that. I went near the meeting. I get a text from you that his leg, this Woodward stuff, is crazy. It's what are you talking about? You have made our lives easier. That's for sure Pod save America is broadly by article others just couple suggested openness to choose from. Let's try this one, it did you take a pottery lately, anyone basis. Yeah, it's the sequel to go to my eyes. Yes, we're doing a lot about her ear really into MAC remain. What is macro. May that sounds like something awful you due to a corpse. Tell me more. You know
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more pods America's brought by curiosity stream. People are spending more time at home these days. Love that love the interest. And are looking for more content to watch and keep engaged with. That's where curiosity stream comes in handy curiosities, dream has thousands of documentaries and nonfiction tv shows whether you're looking for history, nature, science, food technology, travelling more there's a category that sure to suit your needs everyone's. While you just gotta watch some fuckin hd birds, I just got to say: I'm done with story, I'm done with plot. Done with heroes and villains. I wanna see somebody. We therefore flocks of birds. I could not agree more. I desire what a surprise David Attenborough just to love me to sleep. While some penguin gets mauled by a leopard seal, you know yeah sure sure exact. Right, watch, exclusive programmes and people like David Attenborough, Stephen Hawking, and Chris Hadfield. You can stream for your tea
the phone tablet or computer for a limited time, get curiosity stream for just one dollar a month with an annual subscription, go to curiosity stream, dot com, such cricket and sign up that see? You are I o s? I t why s t, r e m dot com, Slash c r, o k e g to get the best shows just one dollar a month with an annual subscription. Let's talk about a story that should be leading the National news coverage everywhere right now, which is the climate disaster that currently hampering the West Coast of United States, including here in California. One of the worst wildfire seasons on record, has already burn millions of acres across multiple states, destroyed entire communities, displace hundreds of thousands of people and left at least seven dead, including a one year old the fires have been caused by a mix of dry conditions, heavy winds and record high temperatures that have also cause rolling blackouts here in California, leaving people without air conditioning in a hundred degree. Whether last weekend,
I will say you know in the last day, or so I do think. Media outlets are generally paying more attention to this crisis. There have been quite a few pictures and videos of the orange sky that you ve, been seeing over the barrier but Charlie Wurzel had a pretty great column in the New York Times this week about how little coverage climate change gets in general he wrote quote since I moved west I've been preoccupied with this question. Would Americans feel a greater sense of alarm about our rapidly warming planet and the disastrous, perhaps irreversible, effects of climate change. If everyone could experience of fire season, person with cable news host to vote the same non, stop coverage to fires as they do for hurricanes if more of their executives woke up each morning to falling ash with more lawmakers care. If it looked like this outside the capitol at high noon, what do you think about Charlie's argument?
it is exactly right. I mean control, I will say Charlie, it's just. They must read on all topics and for all of the shit. The veneer time's up ad page rightfully gets about a lot of really bad writers. They have had recently, Charley was Alan. A bunch of Michel governance. Mobility are some of the great ones. I think this, like California five years ago. It is, studying how much things have changed just in the five years since I've been here in terms of what fire he's in his. Like we have been in our home much of August, not just be not because of the pandemic, because it's to smoke you to go outside? You know I like daughter, thinks it. Smokey is a weather condition. When you ask what There's like she will say smoking and its It's scary? I had to evacuate. Last year
and because of a fire. There was nearer home and you know I was home alone with I'm home alone with Cuba. I get an alert theirs. Higher in our community book. I see it a mile away. I look out my window and my neighbours are throwing suitcases in the back of their car too in speeding off made. It is, if politicians in the media had to live with this. They would Hopefully, approach the media, certainly would approach climate change differently and some politicians would ye? May look. I moved here twenty forty
my parents moved here a couple years after they live in thousand oaks, which is just north of LOS Angeles, like one of the scariest moments in in my life, is getting a call for my parents, like in the middle of the night, and twenty team on the last summit, are really terrible fires season and then having to evacuate their house because the fire, the flames were next door, and you know driving down the one on wine, seeing walls of flame and and worrying thing to get here in time and thinking to their rooms, the house and likely everything was okay, but it is on. It's really scary! When you actually experience at an end, you live here, and it is something that, like you know, that the Mai,
in general, tends to be New York, centric, indecent centric, and when there are problems in New York and DC, we hear about it a lot and when there are problems elsewhere in the country, not to California, but an especially in a drought in the MID West to Rachel that had, I owe a like. There are climate disasters all over the country that you just don't hear as much about because they don't happen in major media centres and sought a knock on those places in New York and Dizzy has just that's what has happened. But of course it's not just the media isn't spending enough time wildfires and and even hurricanes its it they're not explicitly linking these disasters to climate change. Tommy tweeted. Yesterday, a media matters report that showed in the month of August, just four percent of the one hundred and fourteen wildfire segments aired by ABC Cbs Nbc mention climate change. Why do you think the media as such a tough time,
making the link explicit. What part of it is already the geographic location point you mentioned because, like that, DC and New York are not immune to climate change like hurricanes he had. Eighty argyroneta they deal with hurricanes by Hurricane season is a period of time. Were you worry about hurricanes and maybe one or two to hit your area? I've viruses in his period where things are fire for some. Months at a time right initiative hurricane season met. You are being hit by hurricane every day for being worry about getting by hit by specific hurricane every single day. That would be very different. The other thing We dealt with this in the White House. This is one of your great frustrations was, if you try to say that a specific whether that was tied to climate change, the fact checkers wedding, you you- say that the increasing
Frequency of storms like this or fires like this is way to climate change, but you could not draw a causal link between this event and climate change, or some would say, you're, not that that was wrong. You should do that, and that is a technically true right, like that One of these fires was started by a malfunctioning gender review. Party device or something that was talked about here like debts, but they can missions by which that fire happen are directly result of climate change, and it is fucking absurd to not put in that. The second reason is just because we stupidly both sides in open and shut issue like climate change, because the republic, Parties decided to allocate all responsibility and seriousness and pretend that climate change is not happening. It is seen as part of in by some media outlets to set. You talk about climate change that you were somehow picking a side on this issue and that is just so dangerously absurd, and when we talk of a joke about how both sides pedantry will will kill us.
Like this is one case where that is not actually a joke. This. This is the consequence of journalism that prizes balance over truth. This is it, and the Republican Party knows this. They can be radically. They want. In their opinion, their stance on an issue is still held up as a legitimate side of the debate, and so therefore, if the media says that the severity and frequency of fires and droughts and hurricanes is linked to climate change, which is absolutely true that that's thick, that the sort of new ones that you were talking about, its both the severity of these storms and these diseases There's an their frequency is directly linked to climate change. My science, if you say that you are siding with the Democrats, you are siding with Democrats and the worst thing in the world worsening in the world is to be accused of liberal by I will say. I think that over the last couple years I mean that media matters study is pretty damning
I do think there are more individual reporters, especially when you get past, like network news, yeah. I knew better than tv here. Print is better than tv. That will be honest about this. It's starting to turn of a bit, especially younger reporters, will recognise this. So it's getting better, but I think it still is a long way to go. We don't have any more time. That's the problem. We have no more time which brings us to what both candidates and parties would do about. Climate change trump, of course, believe it's a hoax. Did not afforded this week and declare himself a great environmentalist. After signing in order to ban oil drilling off the coast of estate, he needs to win in November. Trump has, of course, the last four years opening up moorland oil and gas drilling both on and off shore, allowing companies to release more carbon emissions effect of the carbon emissions. They want
an preventing states like California, from saying tougher few economy standards for cars, not only does Trump in the federal government not want to do anything about climate change. They actually want to prevent states who want to do something about climate from doing it? Joe Biden, on the other hand, release date to trillion dollar climate plan in July. That would make America's electricity one hundred percent carbon free by two thousand and thirty five and zero emissions across the entire economy by two thousand and fifty do you think by him to talk more about his climate plan and Trump's climate record? and do you think that would break for it? I do I mean by this, is that there are- One thinks at any one time we're in a pandemic. We are in an economic recession. We have a president who is doing unprecedentedly dangerous, things every single day. So it's hard to be like folk,
on this one particular issue, but I I do think that you can very much tie trumps. Failure to prepare for and respond to the pandemic with the Republican Party approach to climate change, which is we are going to ignore science. We are going to deny reality if I was on short term economic gains over the long term health of the american people? and the plan, and so I do that you can make that tie their. There is and add by report climate power, twenty twenty that we talked about keeping experts reactive, weeks ago that very clever, ties together: climate change and the krona virus. I think, I one of the reasons you talk about climate is not that I can point to it to a specific pull that it matters like intuitively. I believe that as well. You know that young others care a lot about this. But the fate of the fucking Planet is on the line here. Right and I do think for,
voters who look at this and there are like always, you know, republic. The Democrats is there we'll different shades of grey, This is the issue This is the issue of the differences. Are crystal fucking clear. You have Joe Biden. The Democrats want to save the planet. Moreover, the Republicans want to burn it. To the ground, so that a bunch of rich, All people can get richer. That's what this is. This is not Our plan, verse their plan is not liberal. First concern is not government solution for market solution. It is save the planet kill the planet. Stop that is it. That is what is at stake in this election that is under girl everything else is that this like when we talk about this being the most important election in american history, there's ways to talk about in terms of the future of our democracy, the concerns about having authoritarian for former years, what I will say about our institutions of troubles reelected, the real reason is, we don't have for more years to waste on the problem of
and maybe Joe Biden Plan is nodding. I think what you want you want to be cool is progressive and bold as it is, and it is quite progressive, involve you want to be clear, bigger or bolder. Closer to the green new deal whenever it is Europe Do any of those things have Donald Trump, its related right. This is the only if you care about this planet, if you Want to ensure that our children and grandchildren have something resembling a normal life on this planet. We have to elect the Democrats in the White House in the Senate everywhere else. That is the only choice. Everything else nice, and if we do that they they have to get something done. They have to pass something significant and you're right. We should push for them. The boldest most ambitious plan possible, a green new deal that be my preference but like something has to get at it
The federal government has to poor billions and billions of dollars, probably trillions, definitely Chileans into the economy to transition this economy from a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy economy. We have to do it, we have to start doing and it and we can't even let the perfectly the enemy a good state have to start doing it. The federal government has to start doing it and you right, we dont do it the next couple years we're fucked. This is what have we have we
Our experience in one degree celsius of warming, the consensus is, at the very least, we're gonna hit two. So this what we are experiencing now with these fires in these hurricanes, this is like baseline now. We're headed for something worse almost. Definitely, if we don't start reversing this now and I do think, like you, no part of the problem with with getting people to care about climate changes, its always seemed like something far off in the distance, and so there's always a lot of rhetoric round like saving the planet for future generations. It's this generation were here this is it there's no more future and people can it. There are a lot of parallel to the pandemic, responsiveness and and everything that trumpeter publicans did to fuck up the pandemic response they ve been doing on climate for a long time, only the effects will be just infinitely greater on climate right. It's all short.
Adam, it's like let's just get through now lets you know, get quick profits today. Not worry about this problem, not do something that seems like it's gonna be hard to solve a problem care only about ourselves and our rich friends and we'll just get through this. That's that's their philosophy, with their philosophy on pandemic is their philosophy on climate change, and we have to say that we want action. We want action now were willing to fight for a pretty hard, and you know to your point about the politics that group you mention climate power, twenty that did the ad they just they recently to Nepal with leave conservation of voters in Pennsylvania Swing, say Pennsylvania found that eighty three percent of voters said that climate change is a serious problem.
Seventy percent of them hold unfavourable views of politicians who deny climate change is a threat. Seventy three percent of Pennsylvania voters support the government taking bold action to combat climate change. Seventy four percent support binds goal of a hundred percent clean electricity by twenty thirty five. Even when you put two trillion dollar price tag on the plan in Pennsylvania, seventy one percent of voters support that plan. That's pretty I mean you know, think about Pennsylvania and people talk about fracturing anytime. I call me talk about in any. You wouldn't assume that it's a state such as its a swing state. That would be where voters would be in favour of really bold climate action, but the research doesn't show that One more point on this to tie fulsome put the they tied, holding up with a bow which is this is actually just like the woodwork revelation about tromp knowing the virus was deadly
Even Donald Trump knows the climate change Israel Real every one of these republicans who denies it calls it a hoax. They know it's fucking, real they absolutely was wrong, but they cannot say that they will not say it, because the only path to political success depends on massive. Political advertising campaigns paid for by the coat brothers and other people, the fossil fuel industry they their silence has been bought on this. They all know it's real. They are not be there it is one of the really truly one. Those morally were sensible things that american politicians have dined in our history, but there lying about the fate of our planet for political power and political donations. Full stop That is, if, if they would all just dial up, will bird like prompted with stupidly under the advice of jerk Christa, then we we all know this truth is while they dont. This is not a question of they can't figure it out. They don't know. We disagreed science that is bullshit. They know marker Rubio with
in a part of the country that is likely to not exist. In a few decades because it's gonna be covered by water, yet he runs around Britannia like climate change is not real because he needs a coat brothers to give him money. But it's not I think it's not just the donations. It is their philosophy of government at its core, which is that day, don't give a shit about anyone but themselves they refused to make any kind of self sacrifice. They refuse to believe that they have the obligation to other human beings. They don't want to wear fuckin mask you, don't pay any more in taxes you dont, want a sort of by a fuel efficient, are you don't wanna tell businesses that they have to not throw pollution? The ear you dont want to tell any
one to do anything that might be uncomfortable that might involve sacrificed for the greater good you are in it for yourself through to the end, that is the republican governing philosophy to its core. It is now trumpets, and it is a truism- is just what the conservative philosophy by government has been taken to its logical extreme I don't give a shit about anyone but me, but that is definitely true, but you can it's not Let us remember that, twelve years ago the primary climate action bill in the Senate, was by partisan and one of the things that has changed over that time. Probably parties become more radical for a whole host of reasons, but one We fundamental things change. Is these citizens United decision which dramatically increase the influence of the coat brothers and others? So, yes, they like they are terrible. Their philosophy is what is good for me
is all that matters like everyone else, ass. A sacrifice for my benefit, but here is a situation where they are sacrificing themselves right there Florid has had a republican governor for every year of this century was as is usual, there's, always a big dose of stupidity, and with this She has a significant it is. It is. This is Trump standing over John Kelly Sons, grave and turning to him and saying what was in it for them, why did they do this? Why did they sign up? Because he cannot understand why you would make a decision that did not immediately benefit you in some way. That is, that is their flocks so saying the campaigns, you can tell a lot about a campaigns overall strategy based on where their running ads and what those ads or about specially enough months of an election, per the medium buying twitter account by
is now running television as this week in Arizona Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania was constant in parts of Ohio. Trump is only up in Florida. Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota Northcote and was content. So obviously the campaigns are adding in subtracting states every week, but what do the trump and by spending decisions so far, tell us about how they see the man, you know since two thousand sixteen. I have tried very hard to resist the impulse to be immediately dismissive of why trumpeted can doing right just like, let's make sure we're not missing something that you know Liege or from factory my reserve, like arrogantly looking at it can't possibly work. I spent a lot of time this morning, looking at their spending decisions trying to figure out what possible sense it could make in Ultimately, the only thing that matters is what is your how to two hundred seventy electrons,
Nor did try to figure out what trumpets doing I went. I took the electoral map and I gave Trump every state that he is currently advertising it, including Minnesota in Wisconsin, but I gave lightened the bad around. Since it Biden was advertising in, but tromp was not so that that gives Biden, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and when you do it that way, bite in wins the race. By about thirty electoral votes, Trump is twenty votes short of two seven. No matter how long was I cannot figure out what trumpets trying to do, because he is currently competing in states that do not get him to to seventy eight gently I cannot possibly figure out what possible why? Because, just as the news, this weight to bear, the costs but even that doesn't make sense, because the way You do that, like the trot, the easiest tromp path to win re election, would be too high,
Aren't you everything he want, except Pennsylvania Michigan. So you keep was constant in Arizona Florida, North Carolina, Georgia right that gets you. But he's not even doing that. Like I can't figure out. Why is in Minnesota? Not Arizona right. There is no sense. That makes its very it is very, very strange to figure out, It is simply advert. Has a lot of money in these advertising everywhere, right he's not he's playing difference where the differences we played he's playing offence where he everywhere he can. What transiting makes no sense to me yet like I will stipulate that I Be missing some other thing in general, it is best in a presidential campaign. If you have a plan to get too to seventy in trouble. We does not have that wouldn't be somewhere. He spinning his television advertising at least the eye. There's a few things from all the data on us: it trumpet
not in Pennsylvania right now, but it looks like both campaigns have spent the most money in Pennsylvania in Florida, which I thought was interesting, though its unclear. Why Trump with leave Pennsylvania, though he spent quite a bit of money, they're more so than almost any other state. I find it interesting that he's not seriously contesting any clear state except Minnesota. Doesn't seem like they. I thought the baby, they put it advice for Nevada in New Hampshire, but they pull them back or they delayed them. So there's not real spending and about a new Hampshire, so it seems like they're only seriously contesting Minnesota it. Also the it looks like their sort of giving up on Michigan because they have it would first they pulled out for a week, but now they ve been out there for a while, but I guess he's back up this week. What do you think's going on? You think he's different machines about in a form that is, Poland will so there's lake its adding it's worth looking trump strategy into periods right earlier this year, where it appears
He would have a massive fund raising advantage over Biden. Then he would be spent much money. Pennsylvania spend much money, Michigan spend everywhere press yard by that The fundamentals of the financials change and of his strategy, would then make sense. It ve then move to a defence only stretch just hold like you. Last time just hold most. This. If you want trumped does not need Pennsylvania Michigan if he wins Wisconsin in Arizona right right, does not need those states. It has made this pretty expensive state Michigan without a cheap state, like it makes sense any resource constrained environment that you would not have advertise there, in Spain Minnesota and it doesnt explained not advertising in Arizona right now. You know just contacts like in two thousand and twelve and combat use you just by defence writings, doesnt, twelve, we computer no state that we did not win in two thousand and We seated some states. We wanted two thousand and eight like Indiana, because we such danger of being outspent because of citizens united and were backs archive
it did not advertise in Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin or Minnesota till the variant like we, have what you have what we were just held onto the exact states that would get us across the finish line and you think that's what Trump will be doing, but he's not doing that, because he spending money message is very very strange, like I said there, might be a reason why he's doing this, but I cannot possibly figure out what it is. Have you if you draw any conclusions about each campaign strategy from the content of the ads they been running, it seems to me, like so the by mad about timescale The pandemic, his divisiveness special and racial issues and his plane tickets of security. With some messaging about binds character in his plans in each of those ads Trumps ads are mostly about Biden and common law as the puppets of the radical left, and there is one now where they're telling people to bind which I down the economy and ruin trumps. Great economic come back but doesn't seem like this lot of other at other? He had the Biden strategy makes a lot us
to me. When you look at their ads, he'd Biden is sort of two tracking it. He is filling in the gaps on people's knowledge, about Biden, the person and binds play and that he is keeping the pressure on Tromp on wrote a virus, slash economy because they are tied together and very important for to keep them tied together and then the third. Of. It is that he is, advertising, very specifically to seniority as a senior track of advertising. If you look at where you know not just What state is advertising in, but the shows he's advertising on. My understanding is that is very targeted, sort seniors, because that is a place for binding over performing. He does not want to give Trump any capacity. Undermine that, because that that performance was seniors is what put is what is giving him an advantage and states like Florida and elsewhere. There's other soft. It's happening on the digital side that I think is more targeted other groups, but from a broadcast television perspective where I think we have the most visibility
that's Biden strategy. Tron strategy is quite conflicting right now. This. This new added that went up today is his first add this mentioned krona virus. In months, I believe, that's been on brass television and me: be indicating a sense it he's going to try to do something to fix. We are always on the margins, his problem with the handling of the corona virus. He spoke, is interesting that the yes that add pivots to Biden, shut down comments in has a lot about the state of the economy under Trumpery before this. But the big thing is he's gonna deliver a vaccine right he's trying to create some permission structure for some number of voters who left him over the crown of to come back We know how that he's not telling one story and is usually goods to good outlines. Reggie tells one bra. The story, that's about! Why you, the right person, your person, one person, his is, is voting about why trumps right, it's got flitting about why by Miss wrong he's got confusing narratives.
By their still, what seems to be trying to get there. You know sort of get their feet sat on what their anti by narrative looks like so I ll get. It remains committed to that for like six months now. Here I mean it's very, very hard because they don't know how if your entire, like reason for in politics, is to protect more concerned. White Americans from a changing America. It is going to lead to more power for people of color. Joe Biden has a very tricky person to vilify. In that situation. How much you think it matters? That Biden is out spending tromp on ads when we know that Clinton outspent Trump on ads and twenty sixteen ultimately lost. You know. When I talk to you too, David acts arrived on the Youtube Series acts may the with that there is an inverse relationship between the value of television advertising. The amount of coverage, a campaign so. Aching rational basic. It's almost no cover television advertising, very consequential state. Why
see no less consequential. Then the congressional bore consequential than a presidential race. There is particular This presents a race for the coverage is all consuming. There is like nothing we talk about anywhere on the news anywhere else other than Trump and so I don't it. I think it matters I would be concerned if Biden was being outspent, because Biden has work to do the two defined himself to voters, and it is harder for him to get coverage about himself separate from Trump. The only way to get sermon unfiltered bit of information to the public is by paying for I don't think we should think that by more definitely when because he has more money because, ultimately a thing Advertising is only additive to the larger syrup media social media conversation yeah. I think for binding about filling the gaps. Like you're saying I mean yesterday,
When buying was in Michigan, he was giving a speech about a new economic policy proposal that would stop giving tax breaks to companies that ship jobs overseas, which is something we ve been you, and I have been on campaigns talking about since two thousand for earlier, it's like we know it is like the most common pot
As for a democratic candidate is one of the highest pulling policies ever people do not like outsourcing. They do not like jobs getting shift overseas with for good reason, but anyway, his that announcement was completely overshadowed by trumps. Comments to work right and Biden had to talk about trumps comments to what word as he should of, but that meant that the coverage probably get buried, I'm sure in some local present Michigan. He got some coverage about it, but generally gets buried, and so I think that in this half course happen, Hilary and twenty sixteen Biden has a lot of plans and policies. He's gonna lie words do talking about who he is what drives him and I think only adds. Only a paid media campaign can do that for him, because he's probably not can be able to break through news coverage with
that he may be able to do it in the debates, he should do it the debates, but help he'll, probably me paid advertising to filling the gap for people about who he is and what policies is a threat in the other thing that bind is doing with its adds, a new mentioned it in reference to the digital add on the windward staff. There was a digital lad. We talked about last week on the Atlantic story, which is Biden is now his campaign is now very specific strategically taking things taking it, nation that they believe would be helpful for people to support, Biden or hurtful to drop and they are paying to put in front of us because they recognise that in this media environment, particularly the persuadable voter credits, can decide the selection who engage less with political news, then We do may not see it unless you pay to put it in your facebook feed or on their phone or on their television, and they are now doing that very quickly
and that is that that is only a trump does not need to do, because Trump can get his attacks on Biden covered. He can get his self promotion covered. That is just part of her mind to do with the challenge of running against some of my trunk. The threat are when we come back. I will talk to the coast, of Ex Research Carlos Oda Pod Amerika is broadly bye by honey we all shop on. And we ve all seen that promo code field taught us a check out, but thanks to honey, manually. Searching for coupon codes is a thing of the past. Honey is the free browser extension that scours the internet for promo code and applies the best one. It finds to your cart, honey support
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You must comfortable life. You Harold innocent play. The corrupt bishop memory falls out. The window gold coins everywhere different at different and spoil ever Robin Hood prince of these parts America is broadly based square space. Turn your cool idea into a new website. Who's got a new website. A listener from allay Joel who, as I say that is like I'm from I'm from New York, but fine, website. They keep your dog entertained on zoo meetings. A website where Groundhog tells you of it safe to go into large crowds without a mask says now, but it always has knows the catch there. And then how there's one more year, what an idea website, where you get all the information from all fifty states, with specific voting options for your state, at votes. If America Consular states owe it exists, it s
said the only the coup idea, it's a good idea, but it's not new, but anyway you should go to to end. If you're gonna start your own website for anything any these websites or other websites, you should go to square space and use it. It's easy to use, you don't have to be some fuckin engineer to use it. You know you just go to square space. Dotcom such crooked. They give you a free trial and when you re to launch use the offer code crooked to save ten percent of your first purchase of a website or domain and then you're after the rest, you're making your website- and I listen to Joel out Joel out there who sent those ideas in reach for the stars. You might miss budget still end up on the moon or something joining us today. The co founder of equity research affirm that focuses on understanding the latino vote, Carlos Audio Carlos welcome to the shop thanks for having me Latvia,
can you start by telling us a little bit about what action does and what the challenges are in general, with accurately polling, Latino, Americans yeah I'm. So it's a brick. What, in your case, we started its the Valencia, my co founder, and I worked with men on the bombing campaign in a way we ve been talking about these issues. A very long time. There's these gaps and understanding latino vote Our countries, have you apply all of the different? It sophistication tools, innovation there have been applied to understanding, say he's, a Berlin white woman and applied looking about I'm that's where we come out at both from a research perspective. Digital testing, digital innovation in different fronts An pulling you know it's. The other challenges, always it is, is a harder reach population. You can't, to throw money one mode so You don't do landlines, you're missing out on older cuban voters in Florida. If you,
your cell phone you're on younger voters, don't do bilingual phone calls you're missing out very different spanish speaker, and if you don't get large ample sizes in Europe could be able to wait on all the different variables that affect the vote from things at noon, don't get asked the means for pulling like what is your country of origin right? What generation and country is Europe What generation are you in the country? Are your parents, immigrants, even since you normally ask again report that do affects the accuracy of absolutely no numbers So I wanted dig into Florida specifically, but I know you guys have also done pulling across the backgrounds. What are some good big issues and concerns driving the decision about whether to vote and who devote for in the latino community yeah what you see in looking acuity, but obviously there is a large amount of anti trump sentiment in hand. It's been a long time coming that the Republican leaned into and lost large chunks. Looking about that
probably available him at some point right? You look at the Bush numbers it. You got two thousand and four the what we are seeing today, as you have a lot of folks or anti Trump, but who have for one another felt on the sidelines of the political process got left out of it. Aren't shore Their vote, is gonna, make a difference and so want to understand and feel confident in their vote. I think there's idea of that sets in certain voters that they need a phd in political terms. Nor are we able to cast about or the need to be MSNBC or Pod- save America nerves in order to be able to two way and confidently and on the part of its just helping help folks feel like they have the confidence to make a choice here, what what are some of the the messaging that works on voters like that who aren't sure whether there can actually cost
ballot. What have you noticed anything that sort of gives people the confidence that their votes can account or let them know that their vote will really make a difference here, and you know what's what's fascinating. Here is it's it's not actually rocket, science right, so much of it just communicating any message right whatsoever. It right. I just want to feel the voters standard. Their boats going to be decisive, unimportant and part of that is the signalling of campaign Organizations who, via a you know dating them with mail or digital ads or whatever else or signalling to them. You are important right, if I just saying at its its could communicate through all of these contacts in and touches the measure itself message matters, but is secondary to just frickin doing it doing it at school oh and messengers as well, but you know we do see, adjust its it in this indispensable. Presidential race, its people's money.
But your Biden right between a like his bile, his achievements and especially what he's gonna do on covered on health care. On college affordability: go on down the list. He would want to be educated some extent have you noticed any significant shifts in opinions about Trump or the Democratic Party since twenty sixteen yeah trump himself? It's it's! Basically was a right at the moment that guy comes down the escalator every little and black voter in the country was like. Ok, we know at this guy's about right, and there were a lot of others- is fled him immediately, where a lot of my voters were still like, always play, wait and see right and a lot of non college. My voters were excited about him. You don't see the same thing alone with your like voters. Generally, I very hard accordingly penal vote, and so I think people freaked out by the fact that post twenty sixteen you do see some growth in the trunk vote, not massive growth right. It's been fairly stable, but some growth and a lot of that just normalization right. A lot of that's just that he
historically low numbers into a sixteen. Now he is being normalized by things like Foot, Fox NEWS and very proactive sort of right wing, media, eco systems online right. If you're getting your news from Youtube, it was very good. An idea of who Donald Trump is. Then, if you are you reading the newspaper everyday do, you see sort of that shift it, maybe just as a slight preference for tromp or normalization as you called it among specific subsets ability, no community different demographics like or is it just sort of spread out evenly totally different by state, as with many things with looking about it, just every state is in its own unique peace. I know we say that the time like every time you gonna stay in a campaign as they are states differ widely available like there really are meaningful differences, you don't floors out the
obvious example, but there are huge differences between Arizona Nevada that affect the vote there. I would say, though, where there is a constant. Is the appeal to younger men what team does are driving the anti Trump sent him in this country? Looking, as are gonna, be a decisive factor, inflection we're looking as both of his turn out. Like that's got to decide. This thing trot understood. You couldn't move Latinos or other women of color, so he focused on the men and I think there there is in rows that he's been able to make with the younger men, Turning to Florida, there was a minor freak out classified as a minor forget this week over and NBC Maris Pole of the state that show Trump and by tied with Trump action head among Latinos. Now it was incredibly small sub sample. Other poles like yours, have shown by doing better, among which he knows
Florida, but most of the data shows that he still underperforming Hillary Clinton in the state, among Latinos or at least coming close to match her margin. What do you think is going on there? That's I talked with an airport eddied idea. We can, I just say: listen. Marriage is a great pulsar. Ethical guidelines play right right now. It should shock nobody, but this is going to be a close election in Florida. It's going to be a close election have started. This news to people who are hoping that you know election. They would be over at seven o clock, as we already knew the result a hundred thirty, eight interviews, Nepal, there so many different ways: the deck go wrong in a place like Florida, so many different ways at so it's a if not the Poles I don't know the gut blown the garbage, but if you want understand looking about, please don't please not draw conclusions from anyone Paul and don't you start with? Could it be act when it comes to Florida, because they just
always get it wrong, but the reality is arriving, but the biting his up at this point by sixteen points in our pulling, I think that's pretty consistent with our previous pulling, has been remarkably consistent. Given everything, as happened in the last year the other pulling is probably in the same teens area and so the reality as we think he has trending by industry. The head of where Bill Nelson wasn't twenty team Nelson loses by himself. Over ten thousand votes in Florida. You get a tribute to many different things, but hispanic under performance is very obvious. One Clinton wind by twenty seven points in twenty. Sixteen, that is a high water mark. We dont think that is we're gonna exceed that point. It gets the upper bounds. We gotta reach. The upper bounds, but the reality is finally going. Gonna fall somewhere in the middle, which, frankly means more of a normal map in Florida is closer to what the Obama elections look like on. Is Kosovo the twenty eighteen mid term? Twenty sixteen
it is somewhat outlier year that we should really use a comparison point, even though it's kind of Yes, it was a what what are your thoughts on? Why Clinton hit high water mark among Latinos an estate, and then, as you noted, and twenty eighteen, both Nelson and give him fell short of that now by Denmark may fall short of. That, too, is a larger democratic party problem. Is it something else I mentioned the trump really did it play very hard for the vote in twenty sixteen right and didn't have a lot of time to kind of our interest in reintroducing himself railway and so that young he at low numbers. I think part of that was scepticism among some Cubans and mighty county. Their doom Republicans were sceptical them. There were the stories about him doing business with Cuba, didn't know who this guy was all that one away post two thousand and sixteen I'm there's a variety of factors there, but between sort of his bluster on this kind of socialism talk or bus from Venezuela and Cuba.
The economy, doing better the tax cuts. A lot of folks who are sceptical that point came over. There is also more we could say about this and voted very dynamic and a very proactive ecosystem me ecosystem in Miami that was kind of taking advantage exploiting all this, but you had a certain number of people who moved coastline sixteen to Trump and they were there for the twenty eight. Do you still see? I know that we saw this and the Obama campaigns in Florida that sort of younger Cubans are still I'll get a ball or at least moving towards Joe Biden, do you think that's like an area for growth for the by giving There were forgotten, the cuban vote is definitely under fifty percent, the younger side and the? U S born is a. U S born is actually to close is that there is no democratic base, their complications. That's why that's right so hard to capture all of this in a hundred and thirty eight interviews given that the younger set the bar Cubans who come to thousand nine since ninety ninety, four
Actually, the big migration waves, those folks used to be very poorest, very pro Obama. They have now shifted, very sadly, into the Trump column, and so is so age is less predictive that it once was, but U S born and being very, but even there was born under fifty biting his work. To do there he can definitely increases margins when it comes I thought I saw that in your point use you mentioned that among our poor regions and and other he knows from broader latin american backgrounds. Right has a lot of room there to sort of make up ground as well yeah. That's right! Clinton is probably in the in the seventies with the non cuban vote. The abiding currently is low. Sixties dirt they're just room to push it. You know we talk all the time about the Cubans, I'm cuban, I get it it's it's
It's a damn sitting so different. You know it's exotic whenever it is, but an increasing we're talking about the poor regions, which has great at least forty three percent. Hispanic go in Florida is not even a border region and its isn't constellation of other. Origin groups yeah, it's why, when colombian, dominican mexican American than a swell and minutes one pilot fit on the list, even though they also get a lot of attention. A lot of these different groups and their is where there's there's a lot more room for binding grow, just in introducing himself right outside of man in places like Wes Palm and so that I think, actually as much of the Cuban for written votes, that there third, there hotly contested right, there's other route is actually what s going to push this and decide whether the vote and a bit looking more like container looking we're like Nelson, so you may but you know trumpet Republicans has been a lot of time. Calling Democrats socialists. I specifically compare
them to socialist leaders in Latin America. How much of an effective you think this has had on Florida? Voters, listen, it works. Right I mean there is. There is real trauma from folks like like, like my family, who move on Cuba, people of Lebanon as well. People like Nicaragua of people who who, who left Colombia and and and had it experiences David experiences around for that. There's a lot of trauma there to be exploited and from and his eyes like Marco Rubio unrest? Scott have certainly try to explain that. What I would say is it does work. I would say, though, that folks that works on it has already worked on past tense. Can grow trumps about beyond where it is right now that kind of fearmongering because especially when the nominees Joe Biden, it's it's a hard sell Joe Biden is a radical leftist, even though their trying. I did. It gets interesting that in the primary the candidate who did the best with Latinos nationally was actually a D.
Credit socialist, what what and can bind. The Democrats learn from Bernie Sanders campaign in the success that they had with a latino voters outside of Florida, mainly yeah yeah I mentioned earlier like this- is not rocket. Science Bernie Sand campaign what they did was all of the above bullets and your allotted to credit Roger who ran that effort is now running a pack. Your pact is doing in a fantastic job on the EU side, boosting binding and focusing on by Bernie. Voters are trying to get them over and what they just. That is Europe in every conversation on any kind of medium. What they're going to do if there is a need for me to radio, thereby contributing to polluting Filipinos and included a targeted Latinos, an absolutely everything that they did I wouldn't say was any one specific thing: obviously they had better candidate who was had upset of policies that you can say what residents right there was locked air, or especially around the college, these to healthcare peace piece for the biggest issues in community and use pushing it so aggressively.
Bernie Sanders didn't duality about twenty sustain our endeavours, its pre. Sixteen twenty twenty was the kind of campaign he ran in Ghent, signalling the importance of the vote to his campaign. Actually asking for that, but so, if you're in the buying campaign, the strategy going forward should be more engagement, more com. Occasion answer of letting people know between in Florida, and elsewhere who he is and what he stands for, just or of basic blocking and tackling stuff. That's right. I mean it's been hardship up in person cause of this pandemic, we're in the middle of the camel hair. It was in his in Miami today. She stopped there like another stand in Now we are working on that. Smart stuffed jobs will be in. In Miami again next week in that kind of our region, let's go Arizona, let's take the shutters on Alex. Take it, and everywhere, with its can be. An once a commoner was in Milwaukee, she stopped and met with what
left on data is a major, imminent rights group in no Aki that smart stuff right. So much of this is just showing up and showing that you actually care. They can have a champion like this person, Carlos Cardoso, you thank you so much for joining us. Thanks for the good work you doing it at least research and take care for have me thanks to Carlos area for joining us today, everyone have a good weekends go dot. State makes some calls and we'll talk to you next week by everyone, Hot save America is a crooked media production. The exit producer is Michael Martinez, arson you're producer is Jordan, Waller its mixed in edited by Andrew Chadwick Kyle smuggling is our sounded. Junior to tell you so Maneater, Katy Long, Roman Dimitrios, Caroline certain Annalisa Gutierrez for production support into our dear. Bill team Elijah Cone Male Conan freed and my look him who film and upload these episodes as videos every week.
Transcript generated on 2020-09-10.