« StarTalk Radio

What Are the Odds?

2020-12-04 | 🔗

What are the odds your crazy play at the end of the game works? Neil deGrasse Tyson and co-hosts Gary O’Reilly and Chuck Nice investigate the use of AI and machine learning to predict and understand sports with mathematician and author Matt Ginsberg. 

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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welcome to start off your place in the universe where science and pop culture collide startup begin right now. This is the start of sports addition. I'm your host meal, the grass Thyssen, your personal astrophysicist, and today sports addition Weave titled. What are the odds and you're gonna start a programme without question somewhere in their there's. Gonna have to be a mathematician, so we'll get to that in just a moment. But first let me introduce my coast: Jackknife jacket, baby, a neo! What's happening right now you pay rent, telling jokes, but so are. We have you on this. Absolutely if I get enough, if I were good enough to pay my rent telling jokes I wouldn't be here now- is right
so jack. Now we love you because you Some levity where did sometimes needed by us? you're you're sports enthusiast on a level that I think is uncommon among people we're not otherwise pay to have a level of knowledge so good to have you, but where we get our street credit course he's from Gary O Gary hey nail. What's up right? your estate side, but you raised in the UK profession, soccer there and his love talking you about your injuries and how you recovered from their behold shows on that there's a lot, but you come from the professional world, and do some insight there that you could bring to this conversation, because what we have found is that there's a superstition can manifested self in sports and efficient tends to show up when people are entirely in control of the outcome and so how much
control. Are they not? Is this even quantifiable It managers studied. Should players study this so generally, when those kind of issues arise, you need a mathematician, and so we found we found them. mathematician for this. An odour. We have her Doktor Matthew, Ginsburg met, Matthew. Men think it is fighting call, you welcome to start talk, thank you and yes, it is man episode excellent, so you have a phd in mathematics. I do the is as dangerous because people dont know how important math is to what they do and then just distorts woken up from the incomes in the back door, and you say oh they're, ready to sort of shake this up and to tell us, where miss thinking. There goes greatness out. They're gonna ruin our superstitions. They got us and so you ruined people's days with your excellent sound? Is then, when you have to people who are having an argument
you come in and you just completely settlement with mathematics, Egypt, a they love. You ammunition this is totally in the way to make friends and broker. actually I've, I think you're wrong. There are many, I think is what happens. Is they both come and go a guy's a deer both the mad at you, because very broad look like idiots, as everybody does next mathematically early. I just want to have the argument actually don't really care about being wrong. I don't care that their disagreeing and will the difference that comes with tears are manifest if you settle it. With a solution that neither of them had previously embraced then the bottle and then then, that bit magnifies your dick a so, we should. Actually, we should get my wife in here cause she's.
I'll tell you that she will be delayed anything that you guys can do two to minimize my dick do. Ok, what's rising about participation is too long to get here, we're all love, but guess what work already making plans to bring him back on that day, the word dick it you'd actual existence, so somebody I ask it could imply the way this is. We have a third segment where we just suited to the facts she did she. Can you stay for that segment because their places I wanna get into her professional profile that easy not be put that will not be part of this or what we know we must get through, because we want to talk about what kind of statistics did it do you want, Where did you get your phd, where we were Ireland, in astrophysics
mathematical astrophysics from Roger Penrose answerable. Ok, let me to my co authors. He just Tom would lead name drop their top tolerant named Henry. Hardly anyone heard before a month ago, when you got the Nobel Prize for I was like a tone holy name, drunk, ok assets as a double named drop cause. You got the Oxford on the back of an actor. You got penrose, whose famous among all astrophysicist and and this the slowdown of the of the Nobel Prize by so any So then you then he started decided to slumber and do pure math violent answer. I was content where you were my supervising these chips on all sides to win the Nobel Prize, and I actually put that I get credit. This is me I'm the commonly designers, other reason even one another grows prizes. Interesting acres, Tom Cruise, who probably
it will never win. An academy award for acting has been in in movies, where you know I have other academy awards have been given to the movie to the other actors, to think so he could say but he enabled the acting up. They are out there. exactly this is probably, they can do its job is gonna, say I'm kind of siding with you. Why search so? What? What is it? What is the knowledge you bring to assist sports people? What have you studied in your mouth? so the math really was twisted varying quantum mechanics and stuff. Like that, but since then I spent on February I- and I mean I think most of my career, doing artificial intelligence statistics and machine learning, and that whatever is a knowledge of statistics in what you can. Connect to what you can't and How that kind of information can help people
better decisions as they play their end. When we talk about predictive analytics, are we really just talking about a different forms, of Statistics and the use of statistics, then there were often talk about machine learning Mary is really just sort of statistics on steroids right and our weight or stewards allowed in computing. I'm gonna have to evaluate. It is a programme for its on steroids. The passage I participated in a long time ago in the World Computer Bridge Championship, a computer program the play bridge. I was at the world Computer Bridge championship and they actually drug tested the programmes Firstly, the earth, no weapons as far as horizons of workable
There are people worrying about decision software. So let me ask if you said: there's something that you, and predict is because there is insufficient data to make a lot more reliable prediction. Or would you are you still did you mean to imply that there are some things that can never be predicted? No matter So you can add some level. You can actually predict anything uncertainty, writer. So we, I think the sunset tribe tomorrow, but there are a variety of things that could cause it not to end, now, don't go there now there's a fifty percent chance. The sun is not going to run on a bearing person, we're good. So, let's, let's not worry about the philosophical limits of what could he could not happen? Let us talk about what a certain betting person would benefit. What I'm trying to say is all you can ever do about it. outside world is called us right now You can make that somebody's one back me that the sunlight
come tomorrow. I wouldn't say that limit on I'll make that back, because the sun's come an actor. Ninety nine point: nine. Over a lot. The nice summit If I want to predict that Babe Ruth pointing to a point in the stands, I'm gonna hit homer and it's gonna go there? It's not a hundred per cent there's some chance that he gets to honour that protection, and the question is how accurate we can gauge the probabilities and how close can you get them to wander, zero, correct Europe is certainty, it won't happen and among certainty, it will happen right Ok, and so of course, sports does a lot of bedding and sports, and if you, put a shading of insight into an outcome. You could become a very wealthy man, yeah, but I wouldn't have any fun with local clematis. Put a quick addendum to that man
You work with all the money, so yes you're right, you would not have any fine in the process, however, the result. We have one expert after his afterwards. That's what what about curses, where people have long losing streaks and they think they're cursed and this week precision comes in and it seems to me, madam. patients are highly needed in those moments, so all income We can tell you that you know you're, probably not Carthage. Does it shares our actual and cursed with that's what you say is a chance of anything right now, Imagine you are quite right, and you start talking in comes up. Heads has had said TAT at some point. You will conclude that the coins biased goings on fair and how long it takes you to admit that the corners unfair is really function of how confident you were initially that the coin was there the more common
you weren't coin is fair the longer it takes you to believe your actually dealing with an unfair coin: persons of the same rights as a person. I think should. But we have no there's, no, no mechanism by which can he cursed some I believe that I am curse is increasing credibly unlikely, but Eventually, the evidence we could offer now. You know the red Sox that way, the world's zero four thousand years. They didn't anniversaries. because it's hard because their purpose Well then, they told us that he now and then they saw a lot of other players to the New York Yankees. Unsurprising enough, the Yankees went ahead, one alone, send a reference, haven't winnings yeah example. Quite domino effect do I think it so. a curse is such an extraordinarily unlikely event. But what you are it's beginning is probably never zero one. The problem persists. Microscopic
but eventually I might eventually be convinced that I was Kurtz. I dont think you do for baseball. To be curbed, leave. You would need more than a lifetime's work that evidence the Red Sox didn't even come close to. You know, I heard mentality where all of sudden that so many people buy into it, but they cannot. We move thought from my mind and therefore a kind of self prophesies. I don't think so. Actually I've looked like just make area. I have learnt a case where that's how we view do might work right where you are so convinced, you're going too fast that throws off your name and then you fail and then you will read it like the voodoo blame the gap, the beautiful that's, because you you have to fight, you have to find a full guy. Therefore its because that would mean station warming at very high level athletics. Did you know that Ninety percent of the games have half mental, that's what you're saying there A lot of it is try to look at some
and it's in high school. I was awful and. and he took up astrophysics, I'm glad. Ok, listen. I became convinced that I was terrible, have maybe works, but I think when you're talking about professional athletes. If they do that themselves, there not professional athletes biggest Their competing and people do not differ susceptible to what are things I did when I was working with the Orthodox volleyball team. is that a bunch of statistics and just out If you live in the urine, Eugene already by the Oregon. I've worked with the doktor. Bunch working with the Bible team and they gave me, statistics on on every Why is it? Ok, let's look at individual players who play pool for the first half of the match. Do is there any correlation between airplane, poorly first half of the match and they're playing poorly the second have imagined, always have the garden in their own heads. Beside their having a bad night,
and the answer was now there was no such correlation. The kids are. As near to machines as the code can make them they play badly on one point: they shake it off replay weapon Let me just add, and just to do justice to the blossom. Smoke in your direction, the you have to know but that that was the right question to ask right as a brilliant question and a simple question, then I bet most people, don't think of because what you Thing is, if you, if you start to have a bad game and then does it affect you mentally cause, ready, know what they are physically. You know tat capable of and if you ask the right questions not People in the world think about the value of the right question asked at the right time. So thank you. think that one of the things that I have learnt a lot of what I involve large amounts of data. you do. You wanna, take the data you get from whatever source in you're looking for patterns,
patterns you looking for surprises, because new and a pattern, it's a surprise might be. Curse might be like a curse but you're. Looking you learn to look for parents and data. That's what machine learning is about? That's what statistics is about is what data sciences about and when I all this valuable data. I just started doing everything you could think of. I asked a bunch Christians are less interesting, but you know this one. Thank you for saying was a good question, but it something with the data was able to advise me on an item, done, I did the same thing with basketball, so I got every ask about play for a year, and I started looking to see. Is there anything that predicts whether a player is gonna perform well whirling in particular again and the incident, not be ass. It was Basically, the number of minutes he had played previously. Asked wasn't very long memory. It turns out that the playing a war
season? You carry that burden with you for the whole rested season, because it doesn't help here, if you played a lark, Anthony Pye, higher than that of the US. It's season fatigue as a matter of fact. Last year before the whole, you know covert. So not this past season they play, but the season before there was a big argument about certain players, but my church and anyone else who, before it just BC before covered? That's a yet we see Yoda, but there was a bit controversy about allowing players to kind of take a break during the season sit out games that weren't as crucial to allow their bodies to refresh and re energize in some way and it just became a huge huge. Thing and the ideas on page eighteen also ticket? I want to see shack play at sea, and that's basically where the girl you go see us and the other car.
Hey salary right, the other the is how Never did like this before you know the guise of the bad guys before who came before us are tougher the guy's grounds it out for the old season, what you sell saw that you gotta take a break. Germany really want me to go through my injury list, because this is another hour that the guys in my Iraq did exactly that. We have injuries that last today's. If we stop I didn't go to, the other, don't didn't have guys like man who would sit now you find an elite spoke we'd, be called asset management. I gotta pull you out. The two game so as I can heavy for the next two months, because about play you in those next to game you're out for those two months, because you burn your muscles in the good condition and serve as a high probability. That was one of the things that I found and with it was interesting since not just in our states that carry at what point, so
no three minutes left in Game Europe Sticks is that enough that you should sit down and give him six more minutes of rest today. So that he's better tomorrow and the next day in the EU, thing is, if you have all the numbers. This becomes a purely quantitative question, you know, if I see him down for the rest of this game, my chances of winning this game go down a tiny bit. I've probably want to cover up sex with three minutes, but Chances of winning they have to Morrow go up and the game after that they go up. See you end up with this. Incredibly quantitative question: actually I rushed at all so look at. So let's come back to that. We go take a break now. But when we come back we're gonna talk about number crunching in exactly as you're describing Matt and I'm going to ask the question: is I'm just a matter of numbers who needs coaches when starting
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it is reach for them when you need one, and that's just love love Now that the guys in the bar haven't, I didn't want their own funds, they don't want their own. Rather too. I want our own mathematician MAD Ginsburg, so we we left off with you decide By being the decision to set a high value player leading because you don't need them to win the game and that could help you in. Tomorrow's game of the next thing? That's it These are decisions, not according to you not left to the judgment of the coach, but these are with fast computing and I'm thinking about it. You can make these decisions in an instant art, so presumably that's not just for basketball for other sports as well. So yes, you can I mean you can have all over. You help me different ways. You know. So I worked with the dutch football. on whether they should punter go for it. I'm fourth down. I work with the valuable team on when they should call time out. I also
you know, I worked with the Bible team. This was not so successful. We set up system where there were two high definition cameras and they would watch the volleyball in the girls on the team had had a smart watches your arms under a shooting sleep, and if the server is gonna be out, we would make the smart watches buzz and we could tell for the serve got there. That was not successful. The incident about about it. They tell us we were bad people and made, but does it is illegal? They actually said it was illegal, but they didn't know it should be a leader until they saw that you were doing it right, they said it was illegal and we said why doesn't break any the rules and they said we don't actually know which rule it breaks, but we are telling you that it does break the rules and you have to do so but they surely said, is not there to break the rules, but that is cheating, and so so did you did it calculate based on a ballistic frederick? three and not an aerodynamic trajectory so
You would get it wrong if the ball has spent on one of the things I did obviously is look to see whether a lift trajectory got there. I obviously, of course, is what you have said We could do major stuff up an annex, and the answer was. I was able to accurately brick whether a valuable service can be in Europe, so that was that was just and it worked. achieving if they can't. You say your big, the outgoing. How does that saying? How would that change? The game is it's not you decide whether you gonna, write or not serves can be deadly, and if their you'd rather not have to try to return this very simple, yeah, but you would have oh, I see what you're saying so it happened in that in that such short period of time, that of europe- wherein the wise and buzz is yes. Do you not think that brain I would be while I would be basing their watches pretty much. Has the ball crossed over the net Cosette that that's what I want
figure out Isn t tell you how much in real time and how? What really so your reaction time as part of this too I didn't do anything right. The computer was, it was all a naughty programmes, a dozen it's nothing doesn't have a damper he's, not even here right now. This has avatar, I got bored so so what is the future of coaches? If you can make key decisions, such as that by air, but you need a quota. This- is not just about coaches right, so we have a lie. entities making more and more decisions for us- and I think the thing that you do you have to realise is we saw problems totally differently machines do so. When a person place chest. They look at a handful of chess positions when deeply place chest. They look at it lives it billions. When we,
solve problems by pattern. Recognition days all promised by searching the net result. Is it We are good at one kind of thing computers are good at a different kind of thing. So the question about balancing somebody's energy? How many? It should be set out this game and next gang machines, good at that were lousy, machine should do that. Questions about motivating the players to practise harder to get drunk for games whatever it is the coaches, are doing that is very much personal interaction value, adding experience adding up recognition, kinds of things. We're gonna, keep doing that What way we know you know, because you what happened is, I was out all night and I was drinking and I come in and I test my blood and as your alcohol is two percent blood. I got the joke from a movie
I know a couple of hers, and so then I says my It shows that your performance will be diminished by this amount and so they will know exactly how much your performance we'd be diminished, but that's the document under contract went when you can know the chemistry he does. That phenomenon, you don't the coach to tell you that you're drunk player shouldn't be plan let's hope, to convince the player not to get drunk the night before But didn't tell get drunk the night before the Superbowl and still win the Superbowl. I mean How do you know now did what you tell us whether you really I was when I was twenty seven years and for those who not a hundred years old, he did a tv cameras. advertising pantyhose after I think he shaped his legs. Didn't mania.
Like this move, so so men baseball is famous for how much too, too Six plays in the decisions of coaches on them although we are this shift in entire greenfield apply. Here's to one side because of the statistics of how the batter hits the ball do, other sports lend themselves to this level of analysis. Yes, the short answer. basketball is right on baseball seals, though I know, but people involved in the basketball world and they are incredibly committed to expire Putting statistical information the same way, the baseball, as do the other sports are behind, so I've been looking at football talking for both people and they know that they are not taking advantage of data as much as some of these other guys. You began just a moment ago. The biggest decision play is, do you kick? Would you go for forth there
whatever the fourth. In short, you kicker, do you go for it and that's you know everyone, that's ever debates that the day after right, if it didn't go way people wanted had its just. How did how does data help, then? That is too, Do you just figured out, and I did work or the orthodox and I actually need to deal with them that I would what they should do and for down, and I would get for season tickets. I wake up. Yes, I told them every week. I would go to them this giant book of what to do in every possible. Fourth, that situation and I'll give it to the coach. I said the same thing I said: look, here's the deal just stop between the thirty five year, you'll be fine, any organ ducks stopped. hunting between thirty five guidelines- Andy, They had an amazing year in part because not punting between four and five outlines lines in college. Football is just right, I did then go to him the next year and ask him she wanted to do it again. He said no, and I said why,
and he said I know not upon between very five guidelines. I can keep my tickets and he's dead. He sent me on my way. So they all are starting to make the decision this way, but not terribly it effectively yet I mean you can do so much more than forth and, however forthwith But what was what you're saying as your york you're, your advice to him was consistent with his life experience. And therefore it had no value to him now he he would started working with him. He never punted. He always putting the two inverted forgot: everybody punted so the first time he followed my advice. He was playing Utah with forth in five from field any disease, and go for because I've been telling him to do this forever. Utah was so surprised. They had to waste a timeout they their part return team on film. He put his normal officer the blow a time out, and then he got any the will ass pretty cool and he did it again and he learned
he started doing better and if you watch cod football now. You will see that between thirty five yard line they go for a lot. This is starting to trickle into the NFL also an end, and what is the fourth that, between thirty five yard lines is their qualifiers, because forth and fifteen on a pebble bitten photography, every five line as a dip there's a lot of giving them forth into between them racist rough actual, the answer is, there is essentially no caught. I didn't run it out a fourth and forty seven, but with the Council in fifteen, but I think it may be a round the bright point, but you really just go for it and the reason is because some per cent, Who please get you fifteen art right, sometimes you make it, but mostly putting does not help you, because, our countryside, that girl that President Santer, instead of coming in at mid, feel they haven't it their own twenty, and it's not really that much better. It's better put em
also to college return. a lot advance. A lot for the in the rose. If you look at the pros when they put on those issues, right there you most times that a preliminary step player is going down of of now, curiously, you'll see a break away. You might see somebody get twenty eight thirty yards return, which is far more seen and cows than it is in the as whether good special teams chuck maybe that the other thing Berkeley, is you can always go for a fourth, the one on your own nine go forward on forth in one and the members just say it's better because every now and then you gonna get any new life punch from your nine you screw. Screwed on your nine you're, still screw Keziah everything's gonna have the ball on your own. You know you're forty, a new story. I like gap in the coach, actually told me he said, stop telling you about this. I can't go for
la force than one for my own. I go If I'm wrong firing that's right, sir. talk to me about it. I'm just not interested site I'm talking about, but so so coaches you're acting coaches have a lot more about than simple quantitative decisions. rightly have to balance the press and the fans in people's moods and, not that I don't know anything about his, I'm just a numbers guy Are you telling me the facts? Don't care right so that when the coach yet of the coach, it's just riddled with emotions and he's gonna get fired if dot dot dot. What happens When you sly the dossier across the desk and say this is factual, how much pushed back and do it? Is it ever gonna happened or do you get like the embraced? The coach eventually gives you all is it baroness enormously right. It's it's a personal thing I mean so I've worked. People who have a huge, not invented here since
You can tell him any idea and they will tell you guys ready Father doesn't matter. If they haven't you deal with it go to the football coach may say. If I go forward on my own nine for someone and I'm wrong, you're fired and he's right. There is it's his, job to know what gets fired. Then you can, he said, stop trying to talking about the devil in baseball. If you make a statistical decision, you're not gonna, get fire, because everyone knows the power, those statistics and then in a one when you're gonna win, and then you have a hundred and sixty two fricking games, because earth are not a sprint know. Maybe football each game has is a little more critical. What about the hell Mary Pass is that it statistical thing I don't know I actually just looked at this and I can tell you that it looks like it you. It worked about two percent of the time, but its restless right, because
Why are you had the ball in fields where six seconds left in the game you're down by, for? If you do, from here on every task. You are guaranteed to lose. If you, you throw it Hilary pass it. The two percent chance of winning I'll take two zero percent any day. That's it, the kind of decision. What people get upset with. Is you go for Fourthly, we want and statistically it's right, but it was wrong spectre. actual early today. So the the the alternative to a hail Mary Pass is a quarterback run with twelve consecutive laterals. That's that's the alternative to that. Every thought much about that. That's that's a lot of bull handling, which always carries a risk. I know some you haven't. I think about that, because I dont think about above I think about numbers. And they are not. There is no data on people. Try this Multiple lateral play so soon
whether you could say at what fraction of lateral or fumbled ripen it's another ball, handle right, ants and so there's got to be some access into their supply problem is that every lateral has to be backwards, so Eventually, he may find out of field, but the real problems about moving about forward is you're as your latterly occasional you do see somebody you know, there's a kick offered. At the end of the game and people start laterally around it never works I've net. seen in work. I have seen how mayors were there and then there is also the trick played like, which is a very of lateral. Where normally happens on kick off where The return will receive the ball, and then you because you can forward pass as well,
there's. The ball is not going forward, so he throws the ball across the field to another player which looks like a forward passport, because it's going in In back, it's going backwards is considered a lateral and then that player is free, from this was why does it he's a wide eyed him and he's got a big longfield level? And if he's fast enough, he can actually I'd be in TAT. So that we get equipment when we come back at man, I want to get into what made you who you are, I can spend a cup the minutes doing that and still connected to the flag, what mad signed
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the world has changed when you visited Cooper Office, so things may be a little different new safety. In place, but our medical for its commitment to putting your health first remains unchanged. Your health is important to us. So delay your health care. Offices are safe because we put your health first, Cooper, university, Healthcare. We're back start on sports edition What are the odds and we got Mathematician Matthew, Ginsburg set so mad. We we, you breathe. we mention that just set off the cuff. Oh hell, Mary passes work, two percent of the time, and you know I don't I don't have to run numbers to know that it doesn't happen often but When you say two percent
probably mean exactly two percent. So how did you how you actually get that number so for that number, which your team actually asked me about. I looked at all football that I have tried every NFL play since ninety. Ninety nine, questions which are the Helm Aries says it ok gotta be down more than a few goal, but it touchdown can tie it's gotta, be down forty eight points. You have to be these thirty yards away from the ends up to at least thirty yards to go. After the end of the game, which I defined as either less than twenty seconds left to play or less than a minute left to play in its fourth, that's your desperate and I looked at all the place, it were like that and how many of them were actually recorded as being a deep pass, which is The data I have.
There are a hundred. Ninety seven plays in desperate situations like that that were recorded is deemed passes and of those hundred. Eighty seven plays forward hotshots so I can tell you that your temperature two point one percent of how marries work well but don't worry, tackled open, have always David eyes. Didn't bunch queers, you two percent over over a zero percent greater than if you don't do it. Do you know you're, not that's. Ok, so in this third segment, which weave was still trying to find a good name for but until we do we just going to shoot us it sucks. So what am I gonna question? Forty men, if I remember correctly, was it deep, blue, yes, rules or whichever IBM computer beat the world's best go champion hours at a good? your computer called robots, sort, Google! I was yet that's right, google him. What was the name of that computer? I think
alpha goes. I think what they called it: ok, I'll forego and I remember chatting with some Google people at apparently, you can do one of two things. If you have machine learning machine learning, you can say alright. Let's daddy every single game ever play, which is you can do a chess, because every important game is recorded rights and have it learn moves that worked in Didn. Works, and it could have the sum of all human knowledge and thereby beat practically any human who plays it. That makes sense, but then, and they follow on Google Programme, it didn't do that. It said what is the goal of the gay? Oh, it's the demon territories into private. Is that the goal will? Let me play myself and do what. I think I need to do to win enemy play a Billy. games against myself doing that. That programme
beat the previous programme that had beaten all previous players and then is it exploded look of terror in the space time to do this is not always so. My question is man at what point you're going to say my best data are all of the games ever played, rather than my best are the games that could be played that I can think up and have never been aid and thereby I'm gonna, make a giant leap for the sport so like the first person to but that must have been a crazy. What is that? Oh something had to invent that right. It was false burial, falls very fast, very flop budget. Sixty eight Olympics Mexico certainly doesn't brand name you just to be clear, cause I've. I've noticed that people know that this
better way to jump over the bar, but they don't always know why, but give me like thirty seconds to explain that. So, if you watch old high jumpers- they will go forward over the bar and you can only really banned at your waste. Could your legs can bend? opposite direction. Then they do so. Your legs, to clear the bar straight, whereas if you go backwards over the bar you're back curl, you can grow backwards. It Waste and your legs can dangle, so you can make a semicircle, a semicircle Roy yourself around the bar taking yours, center of mass below the bar? Even though your boy, how'd, he goes above the bar seeking higher than ever before by actually jumping lower than ever before, in a world record, setting So could you when you're curling, your centre mass, is no longer in your body, is outside of your body
and you didn't actually have to jump is high, so you could say that was cheating, but they they left it in. now everybody jumps that way. Such centres, slip in I've noticed that not everyone knows that even some athletes so continue Sorry, I interrupted, though, what I do, but people working shimmering, Jerry, I do is, I think, you look for patterns and data, more data. You have the moral is the patterns you detect a real, the more likely the easier becomes to find the parents. You want as much date as you possibly can have, and there Obviously there is a choice you can use naturally occurring data data from chess games or you can use. dedicated activity generated by playing yourself, for example, and there's a trade off the next Craig Data is at some level, gonna be better it's hard to imagine. Computer simulations at football games being of much value. For example,
You do have the opportunity to generate more data, but by playing yours by using other computers at this one, computer These are way better a chest and we are so the way the data you want. You want to look at the data from stock fish register. as non machine learning based programme? From my perspective, you just want to do what works. I don't care where the data comes as long as what I learned from it is actually about the abbots more fun. If your programme invent a new football play that no one thought of, because it because it too but Didn'T- want a base itself on games there, replay before I want to see innovation because that's you know- and I guess that's what trick plays art but yes, but put an end. Is that true, creative we are always end is that what we are doing as human beings Looking around and seeing looking for misdirection looking for ways,
is to make your opponent think something that's not happening. that's how we come up with new plays, and that is also a part of pattern, recognition as metaphor in football. They call it disguising the defence and all kind of stuff you're. Not only that, The very final play in the movie Major League was basically a trick play and that's baseball right. What happens? The batter points to the outfield? Ok, and so so that's good. You know that's got his shown. Some gonads there right points like he's, gonna hit and then Instead he turned around and books, and so third breakthrough has to come running and because they were playing indeed, there was a whole construct willing. Let me give you a me actually trying to answer this. Ok brother just argue at argue at you actually asking the question back when I work for the dots I actually didn't answer new play, and I just
the play as an optional cell safie. So there are situations in football where you actually want to score safety himself and then take the kicker, from the twenty and so forth and so on, and I created a another kind of play, which was you go back for pass, throw pass, if your passes basically guarantee, because the guide is just wide open, throw the pass otherwise about the back the answer and you safe use of nuclear nobody'd ever thought before So possibly one is that the ducks win crucial game because I gave them this new play. Possum, He too is the ducks. When a crucial game, because I gotta stop punting between the thirty five hour. But for me, Molly too, is just as much fun at the questioning originally asked is just as my friend This possibility one is, I did it. I know I did I have to go and pick up again?
a bar by telling her I invented this, the passing cell safety. I got away. I wouldn't work we're gonna, know bar works. Every time you said that you ve tried it None the the nerve Barton has gone I know, when I watch football game when I went to college football game- and I see somebody putting out between the thirty five your lines, I smile from ear to ear, because I did that just as good as if I invented display the people run from time to time? It's just as much fun when I do wish, just as impact for and whether it was something that the sort of looks really splash like pointing to the office, then bunting, or whether it something that just grinding. It out doing the numbers and figuring out what to do. One. Fourth dams impact is impact winning is winning or so that why don't? why dont betters, who are statistically predicted to hit Eighty per cent of their line drives
the left side of the infield. Why don't? They just punch went to the right side, and sore save that for when they really need it and what was it Vigo, that their fighting the I'll get through them, even though they put in their best stuff. I you have asked a baseball player. I have a bit and your natural swing has been go particular way and messing with it, your own peril regards Veronica. so, can I ask you: let's look at football and basketball because they are not as statistically driven ass baseball. Is there one thing and each sport, barring the fourth in one situation that you know you hear announcers talking about is the one thing and eat sport that you would say. This is what they're all not doing that if they did, they would find greater success, so basketball bats,
really is very statistical these days and I dont understand basketball nearly as well as I understand the other games. Similarly, basketball out of football. Yes, though, there is one credibly, easy thing that people don't do in football and their crazy, and that is you score, touchdown you have to decide whether kick extra point or go for two. It turns out that your expected a number of points, cord is pretty much the same you're about fifty. Fifty two make it. If you got to do so, Oh you're doing when you decide over two instead of taking extra point, is your adding sort of noise you uncertainty, and that me, and this is incredibly simple and they should have to, but in because these Something I don't know if it's completely clear to others so when he says your ex. Acted results show the same. What he saying is if he is a fifty percent chance. You gonna score two points than half the time you them If you dont on average, you scored one extra point:
which is the same as the guaranteed one extra point? There was the traditional on, so I think I'd say that correctly raft man, ok, so you need to have a very straightforward one point. You know you did gonna be one, and secondly, there is actually teachers can be one or you can, like a noisy one point where its half the timescale and half the time it's too so the I think we should be asking is: do I want noise in the football school and the answer? Is it playing at him that's better than you you do, because the way you gonna win, this game is by getting on little bit lucky and you I give the gods of luck, as chance as possible to help you you want to increase, was called the standard. Deviation in the score that you can't move the average, but you can make it noisier, so you want to climb out to the wings of that distribution where you could have actually a chance of winning their deadly as the underdog guess.
every underdog in full of it or is it touched down, should go for two and its obvious and its simple and I Have you ever do they don't think about problems apparently, is not obvious to me you don't have a phd in with a degree that they earned from a Nobel prize. Winning brilliant needs is need will be that we got it so that we get it. We got actually land this point a but to take us out man, just what it mobile factor, man, what it! What does that book? You got a book to those I what it is. I have spent a lot of my professional career working on a particular technical problem and if you saw you can solve all the other problems literally and it's a book about a guy who does and yet another is enough. How cool is this browser? It's a thriller? I wrote a mathematical thriller. Two words you ve never seen. In the same sense I have often my friends about you. If you solve this problem, it is actually erects between whether you take over the world of the government. Kills you and and
This problem is in this race. He knows he's in this race. He doesn't really I'm watching that when it comes out on efforts to those, surely by the story, ass one fact remains about our exports excellent omen for that and and greatest name ever for computer program, doktor fill with an ef. I l L tell me about that. Doc until is I don't remember who suggested the name? Actually, it's a programme solve crosser puzzles and Neil you and I are both created across puzzles that created the crossroads. Here too, I am. I am awful across frontiers When I had puzzled the New York Times it takes about a year from the time you submitted till the time it comes out, I cant do my own puzzles when there finally published I wrote this programme. That's really good at solving crossword puzzle that sort of my revenge on all the people who are so some better. I am the name, and I asked the community. Crossword puzzle constructors for a name,
and one day suggested deep clue good, what that was good and someday, EL suggested doktor filled. Her thought was hanged bit better. So that's how doktor very Cool so so, in other words, ever longer geek, because whatever they not good at, will create a robot that is at stake here: man met, we got it, we got a call acquits there, but thank you for Thank you to my delight, to hear how you have contributed to this end, This is surely not the end of that story. There is much more fusion that math will have not. and sports but the rest of our lives, and I think, over all the more the better and we look forward to this. So thanks for being on start up Jack Gary, lesser. Why were you always a pleasure? here, I am neither Grass Thyssen your person.
astrophysicist. As always. That's again, those for supporting today's show. You know technology can tell a story started. business will express an idea. Only you to do that and with windows. You have all the tools you need to do it your way from wherever you may be working, what from tablet mode to laptop move or from your laptop to your phone, whatever you do make it with windows, see how windows, dotcom, slash, one zero! your health. First, Cooper University. Healthcare. That's our aim! our doors are open. In fact they never closed, the world has changed when you visited Cooper Office, so things, may be a little different new safety place, but our medical
for its commitment to putting your health first remains unchanged. Your Health is important to us, so delay your health care, offices are safe because we put your health first Cooper University Healthcare.
Transcript generated on 2020-12-04.