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There is more quickly hedge away from the United States as an example that they would want to fly. Although as a leader that they would want to engage with as an ally that they would feel committed to That's in bremmer he's the present, and founder of Eurasia Group? nickel risk analysis firm. Put out an annual report on the top risks facing the world, and this year's is a duty It is also written nine books, including most recently toss verses them The failure of globalism about the global growth of populism I speak with him about all sorts of things. The risks facing US by nineteen. The rise of Terrance, and what twitter, CEO Jack, Dorsey or format the IDA Jim call me is more, sponsible for the election of president from that's coming up, stay too listeners. I've got some exciting news for you. This week we launched cafe, store where you can find,

original stay tuned merchandise like t shirts and hoodies and mugs I'm literally wearing a state in sweatshirt. As I take this, seen it before it alive, shows, run social media banal, find them online shop dot. Cafe dotcom, wrap your favorite Pakistan gonna, stay tuned, swag at shop, dot, cafe dotcom! Ok, let's get your questions. This question in a tweet from user Levu who asks pre. Please talk, discuss about rod, Rothstein leaving and its impact on everything. That's going and what would the road ahead look like without him? So obviously the sweet refers to the just. Breaking news happened a few minutes ago, before we started taping here on Wednesday, reunite the rod. As I intend to step down as deputy journey general, if and when the next many for attorney general, which at this point is Bill BAR, is confirmed

this has been a question that has been of concern to a lot of people for a long time, principally because of the impact it might have on the mother investigation. So you remember some months ago, there was this dramatic back and forth with the present sounding like he was gonna, firearm, Rothstein or maybe right, cuz. I was going to the White House to hand in his resignation because the present is not happy about the ongoing Russia investigation. So couple of things one. I take the reporting at its word that rod is leaving voluntarily that he's not being forced out and that's not necessarily a crazy thing. It's not necessarily born of something malevolent or questionable. A rod has been in government. I think pretty much is Holo Life, in all that time spent in the Justice Department running it main justice than as he was attorney in Baltimore and allows the deputy attorney general. You burn out quickly from a job like tributary general, to huge job, it's basically being that chief operating officer of a department that has a hundred

and people in it. It may be the case that, given the ups and downs of the last couple of years and rods, professional reputation, which I think reached a low point when he wrote that what I think was a protectorate memo on the reasons why commerce should be fired member, he said in a memo. The call me should be fired because he mistreated Hillary Clinton and, as we all know, from surrounding evidence that was not the basis for dialogue from fire. Jim coming. So it may be that, given the rush, investigation is for the fairly well entrenched in rods, mind that he thinks it's unlikely to be stymied and he's had a sort of they taught period with the president. might as well leave while your head. There may be personal reasons, I don't know, but I don't think it's that he's being forced out. So what effect will have? No that's a good question. I hope I can infer, as I have a second ago

The fact that rod roses I feel comfortable leading means. He feels that the rush investigation is either nearing an end or his safe. Perhaps he's got an assurance from met Whittaker, the acting attorney general, but it certainly is reason for concern, if not alarm, and that is why I think the most important thing that needs to be made clear next week when Bill BAR has its confirmation hearing. is how is bill bar going to treat the rush investigation when he has expressed great reservations about it in this unsolicited memo that he sent as a private citizen in private practice to Jeff sessions in the Justice Department, taking issue with a very important aspect of this special councils investigation relating to obstruction? It's kind of an odd thing that memo, and I think it raises very serious questions about the degree to which Bill bar will be neutral fair about thrush investigation. I do think it's very hard since it's been under way for a long time, and there are aspects of the things about Mahler has found

now unfolding in the southern district of New York in the District of Washington at the National Secrete division every month it goes by it gets harder and harder to put the genie back into the bottle, as they say so, I'm a little concerned. I think among other things, that the continuity of oversight of the rush investigation will be lost because rod has been there since the beginning, rod has been one of the most vocal protectors and defenders of Bob mother. He said repeatedly in testimony on the hill and elsewhere that he does not believe this is a witch hunt. The FBI director has had the same but you know you were a little bit that you have the act. Journey General who clearly doesn't like the rush investigation. You have the incoming nominee, who has had problems without investigation and by the way, the absence. A rod. Rosa sign now means that there will have to be New Delhi three general, and you worry again that that person, who will probably be the person overseeing the special councils office and its work. Could be someone even worse in these

is that met Whittaker and Bill bar. So I look forward to the hearings next week and they will have to see I pre. This is Josh from central organ. I was hoping you give us a quick said. A lesson on grand juries there is a lot and I find that neither I nor any one I don't know much about them office. I saw a news: article had to go back and request a six month, extension to its grand jury, Why didn't he just can be in another one thanks very much. I just things requested so There's no wheeled mystery grandeurs, although they do their work in secret. So there's something of a black box, but very quickly, and maybe future day will go into much greater depth on how a grand jury operates. The most burning, remember, is that prosecutors like I used to be dont, have absolute full Athol to bring charges against people unless and until a panel of ordinary Americans, which is called grand jury composed of twenty three people.

Sides to vote in favour of an indictment. So it is true that an agent or an officer can make upon observation of a crime, a probable cause arrest and that can be approved by a judge in a criminal complaint in the federal system, but at some point in order to proceed to trial and to proceed with the charges in the prosecution of any person in the United States. You have to get a grand grander is approval that there's no joke. That says in a gradual- and I too have so much, and I leave that other people to debate so they're all sorts of ways grandeurs can operate. And there's differences in the state system versus the federal system, but typically fork Lex investigations, the? U S attorney in conjunction with the court will convene, a sort of long standing, grand jury and often those are eighteen month. Grandeurs for example, in the southern district, we would have multiple extended Grandeurs

made up of ordinary citizens, twenty three apiece who would come in for maybe two days a week? Thursday or Monday in Wednesday, and the reason you have these longstanding grandeurs these long term grandeurs is because in cases where its money laundering or terrorism or cybercrime or financial fraud typically are complicated. and they're not cases where you can present the evidence to the grand jury. Given him enough information to vote on what is often a lengthy set of choice in an indictment. You can't do that in a day, so You want to have the same group of people week after week hearing the evidence at the end of which they take a vote on the indictment and, if they vote in favour of it, we call that a true bill which then gets filed in court and that's what allows the prosecution to proceed and that's what causes a life, tenured federal district judge to be appointed.

assigned to the case now with respect to the extension of the system is not such that you're getting citizens to serve forever or in perpetuity. Eighteen months is a long time for a long term grand jury, but from time to time based on an application from the prosecution. You sometimes extend that grand jury, because your work has not done so here. Obviously, special council's work has not done with respect to the rush investigation and whether that inclusive structure, not I don't know it does not necessarily mean that they need all six months. Although it is my view that there's gonna be some pressure, I think on the prosecutors and special councils office to conclude by the end of the six month period, because I don't think you're gonna be able to get an extension beyond but will be eighteen six is two years, so it doesn't mean they won't do it. It doesn't mean it go past six more months, but project in my experience, myself included, really prefer to have the same

people on the grand jury, hearing the evidence listening to the witnesses, understanding the testimony understanding the facts, because if they decide they want to put in you no more evidence after the six month, extension to some different grand jury that they impact. With a different set of twenty three people, depending on the basis of the new indictment that they want to have voted on. They will have to read backlog of testimony for a lot of old ground familiarize a bunch of new people on the facts that they think are important in. That's, as we say and about so a lot of people on tv are sort of beating the drum and breathlessly talking about this extension, Is a natural thing. I've everyone knew that the investigation was likely. not done as of January, seventh, two thousand and nineteen. So he needs more time. He does have to take the whole six months and he may go beyond the six months. But my sense is my educated guess. Is that we'll get some conclusions between now and July, sixth

comes in a tweet from Paul who asks no comment on the sound resounded sky indictment Ray the present case, which was your baby well Paul. I don't quite know those my baby who is a case of ever saw when I was your attorney by way background Now, when I was united Attorney, we brought a civil ass, a forfeiture money laundering penalty. Action against a number of people in connection with a rush and tax fraud scheme conducted in Russia in. Our delegation was that certain high in Prague, is in New York City. The money laundering operation and you'll also recall that russian tax. What I'm talking about was the basis of what Sergei magnates key was bill. Browsers lawyer was looking into so there's a connection there so fast forward to this week, when my former office, southern district of New York, brought a action, alleging obstruction of justice against the now sort, a famous russian lawyer, the tie of his own skier, They might have now learned to pronounce whom two things was one

defence lawyers in the underlying case that I just mentioned, and also one of them, boy that famous from tower meeting where they supposedly discussed adoptions, don't believe that. So I hated disappoint foe. but given that I oversaw the underlying investigation about which the current indictment claims obstruction is probably the better course for me not to comment extensively about some things that went on there, but what I can say, as it shows once again, that the southern district of New York takes obstruction seriously, thinks it's very important and is continued to look at all aspects of everything that they have done and stay tuned. This next question is from Twitter from Kay W Esquire at prepare our. Can you make anything of man? Efforts missed filing deadline, hashtag aspirate, so that's a reference to a filing that was owed to the court. By Paul manifolds lawyers on his behalf. In response to

special councils allegation. That Paul metaphor lie about various things and the reason why they decided to stop having him try to cooperate proceed directly to sentencing, so you watching this case like a hawk hundreds of billions of reporters, and so when the final deadline came, the went they thought something was amiss in. It seems like I guess, the largest filed it late so it will still be considered, but that was not the biggest mistake. The lawyers made, as you may have heard, they try to file their papers with portions of it reacted so that the sensitive nature of the things about which the special council says Pollyanna Fort lied would be kept secret and sealed until the court decided otherwise, but they were that up. That's a pretty big screw up, and so reporters were able to see what was intended to be rejected.

The rejected portions of the court filing in combination with media reporting has made clear that at some point and implemented concedes this at some point manifest Our shared campaign information, including sensitive, pulling information from the trunk campaign with Germany, Mr Clinic, who is believed to be associated with russian intelligence. That seems very, very significant, and that start to get to the core of what you would say collusion is: why would you be sharing sensitive internal campaign? Pulling information with folks were connected to russian intelligence now the sticking point in making a conclusion about this is what was the timing. So it seems from the reporting that poor man a fort, was giving this information during the campaign and ostensibly during the time tat. He was a campaign chairman naturally fishy in that starts to look like collusion.

As I take this, there has been issued a statement by parliament efforts, lawyers, the same ones who screwed up multiple times in this case, saying that meeting and the exchange of information happened well after that, pain and not until January or February, of twenty seventeen after Donald Trump was already the President elect it fast then it's hard to understand how that could be collusion or conspiracy or aiding and abetting, because the campaign was over. It also unclear to me if the campaign was over, that information will be shared at all. So I think a few days to figure out who did what when, but at the moment it seems very significant, but is not clear how significant show As you can imagine, there are approximately a million other things we could talk about this week, so much use overwhelming some others including the issue of the border wall in the possibility I'll drop will asserted z, power to build his concrete or steel slot wall at the border.

Tibet within Melldrum Avenue they insider package. So, as many of you know, We recently launched a new thing: caffeine, Cider delve even more into the daily deluge of news and help make sense of issues at the intersection of long politics. So does this reminder members of Cathy Insider get access to a weekly podcast within Milgram me when we tackle the most press questions about what's happening that week, members so get a weekly newsletter texts for me when used breaks, bonus state in content and more Kathy insider for more real time in depth. Analysis of what's happening today, a cafe dotcom, Slash insider! That's cafe, dotcom, Slash insider, I guess this week is political scientist in Bremmer. He's the press and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk analysis for he's all foreign affairs colonist and editor at large in time, the research professor and why you,

he's written. Nine books is eight more than me clearly most recently us versus that the failure of globalism about affair, years of elites to address the growing spread of populism around the world. All too tightly We had a very wide ranging conversation. I speak with him about the top risks for twenty nineteen including the ongoing war and Syria. The rise of populism and the bad seeds were planting for the future. In grammar. Welcome to the shop there happy to be with you happy new year, happy new year, so you have been in the business of assessing risk globally. Four hundred twenty how long twenty one years, twenty one since I shouted accompanying agenda yet so before we get to this report, the report you call her report, I guess we call.

This annual report comes at the beginning of the year. We you been doing for, as you said, hundreds of years call top risks, and this one I think it's well named top risks. Thousand nineteen at it seemed like the right way to go in ideologies, as you saw. What were twenty eight again, which seemed wrong, although I might well ask you top risks. Twenty twenty two year than now been very cool. If you could assess those really clear begun, The first for a very fundamental question: are we all gonna die? Yes, that that's all we got the share, of course, we're all gonna die. I know you know what I am. I didn't lightweight I'm about to write a new year. I said you know thank you to all of my followers into the Euro sort of one point: five Some of you that aren't gonna be here to see twenty twenty. I hope that you enjoy this last year, re heartwarming here near very gentle. I care about people, I care about you in really. I've always thought that

before we get you to the risks and you- and you have a lot of stuff in this report from the Eurasia Group about china- about cyber about european populism about. Mexico about breaks it so many things. But first I want to ask you: how do you We are thinking about risk in global risk and whether things will be we're down and what the effects will be on the glue economy, an individual nations economies. Because I was a very smart you lots of very smart people and you put together this narrative and you make these predictions and you make these assessments of how Things are going, the hell is that, based on so I mean the first thing is the send the structure has to be right, so we actually will leave this report on the front of our home page for the whole damn year and at the end of the year the last update that I write Everyone will be to reach hostess and go back through and actually assess how we ve done and all analyse, know that so be seen by them as

exercise in hey, let's just cod with a bunch of cool stuff and who cares next week and original, can't be that also. We start this September I like when people come back from their summer breaks in the rest and the it's a process of fairly serious discipline. We take all the analyse from all the different offices all around the world? To me the firm has almost two hundred people, some, it's a pretty significant thing and. beat on each other and his allotted different expertise around the world and they don't always see the world. Surprise. Surprise in the same way, that you know have you done this for Mountain Gladwell says you doesn't move ten thousand hours eventually like? Oh, you get pretty good out of something seriously wrong with you, twenty one years of running in Eurasia Group. At some point, like you said actually being able to differentiate oh for noise. Do pattern recognition. So so can you can you predict the weather? No, no, no! We cooperate, but we conflicted GEO

local, whether what we see happening is GEO political climate change. Right I mean this is the kind of environment where it's very obvious that most of the things that are happening in the world you geopolitically, are trending badly and of them are really urgent and not gonna blow up tomorrow, but anyone that far all this stuff has to know it's not sustainable anyone there. Ours is has to know that were heading for Syria cely rough seas But when you say we do you mean Americans, you mean everyone in the world. I mean the world because its global report that I guess I also do I think the: U S is more resilient than just about any one and, as a consequence, one of these why it's gonna get so bad globally is because the consequences of many that geopolitical dangers will be felt more acutely. By others in the world, then by Americans, with power and We are the ones that have the most capacity to do something about it, so the incense

there really aren't alive. When you bad things will happen. That's a broad subject: that's a big boat you're talkin about! Do you mean war? Do you mean session, do you mean other kinds of international conflict? Do mean pestilence me what what of things are you most worried about locus is what I was yes focused on. right. I mean what you say, never know pestilence. I think locus it just much more biblical term. Most popular know, you're really doesn't background. So I figured that that was where you we're going. Now I mean if you what it really means, I don't know if you look at the last two major shocks, they were like bolts from the blue on the hit the world, the two thousand and eight financial crisis and nine hundred and eleven write. The interesting thing about both of those as a political scientist is that the United States,

bonded to them by coming together and not only that, but our allies came together with us and not only that but even people, that weren't aligned with us the russian support us after nine slash eleven. The Chinese supported us to try to get out of the two thousand and eight financial crisis. There was strawberry resilience and harmonization from the global system in responding to shock. Now I do not have any idea what the next what and when the next major bolt from the blue is gonna, be as it gonna be in a you spreads from the DE the DRC, which David Miliband is very deeply concerned about right now. Is it going to be the next major cyber attack like what the Russians did against Ukraine that spreads out beyond that suddenly causes hundreds of billions of dollars damage? Is it

your terrorist attack again or perhaps most likely. Is it the next major economic downturn? But what I know is that the GEO political environment means that the response to the crisis is going to be very deeply. Dysfunctional can be blamed. Friendship can be. Fragmentation can be very deeply dangerous, wise at different now and is not always the case. People are to blame other people. Well, given what I just said about nine hundred and eleven and two thousand and eight? The answer is not so much right. I mean no people like to blame other people, but people also respond and get in gear when Christ, They rally around leaders, they they, you see the best from them, but the show much more fragmentation, Joe politically. The major relationships in the world have all deteriorated so badly. All of them? U S! Russia! U S! China! Transatlantic within Europe, with in the Middle EAST, literally all

All of those major international relationships have deteriorated significantly over the last twenty years and that sped up over the last several That's a real problem and furthermore, inside our countries, the legitimacy of our political institutions has eroded. Support for established political leaders has eroded not just in the United States, but with the exception of Japan, I would argue across pretty much every an industrial economy, so yeah those two trends exacerbated by technology? and social media and the filter bubble and things you talk about all the time, the that that's what's really lead to change its oppose. There's no big shock bolt like you describe as we had with nine eleven or as we had with the financial crisis, are we still on of a downward spiral in terms of relationships being ripped asunder. And

deterioration in belief in our political institutions that, if there's no change and no reversion back, there were still on a bad slope. We are in a bad slope. That's a mean that the point, though, is the two thousand nineteen does not feel like a particularly bad year for political risk, in other words, with a global economy. That's expected grown near for percent than the markets that are largely resilient to downturn, still a fair amount of stimulus in the system. Still I mean unemployment going up to three point. Nine percent because were actually having more people come back into the markets. Those people getting hired in their starting to get return and which is particularly important right, older Americans coming back in the market that didn't know what the hell they're gonna, do, and now company our hiring them in training them for a twenty nineteen economy. That's a really good thing, so I mean clearly, I dont think twenty nineteen is where we have the wheels fall off, but the long term trends that I mention of the institutions and the leadership eroding of the allied.

I insist and institutions globally eroding and the rise of populism, a nationalism yeah, that's pretty clearly heading on a decisively negative trajectory over the coming years. I wish we could say the siege The matter of Trump is one term and then he's out in it all gets fixed. There's no way I thought about trot. Had you take into account in your assessments of we're we're going as a country as a world. The things you can't know the unexpected risks, de facto that energy to sort of make, settlements and figure out the resiliency of those institutions to withstand something like I don't know and Astrid Strike or an earthquake how'd you factor in those things that are not knowable yeah, I'm in a risk report is and the work that we do generally as political scientists is not about crystal ball. it's not about saying. Oh yeah, like initiative, we know that Putin is going to choose this person is his successor, like that's unknowable

you know even the breaks it outcome, you're talking about scenarios and percentages you really want to do, is talk about resilience and stability, the ability to respond to shocks as they occur, and also the propensity of an individual system to create its own shocks because of the kind of system it is so tromp administration necessarily creates more internal shocks right. I mean the competence of a president tromp in his inability to respond to challenges and, its growing around him, in fact, his propensity to make them worse, for example, the mother investigation others around him. That creates more sense of indulge shock inside the united? Since you got a factor that in too, but are we looking at the next. You know what what the next bolt from the blue is gonna, be no it's not that it's not about that.

Corner. Individual leaders, like Trump like Mccrone, like Merkel, who you say, given the fact that Macrones a twenty three percent approval in France Merkel, is in in the process of a transitional phase out. Why does it make so much difference that there's one person in charge of a country even as significant as France or Germany, how much of a differences that make it? I think it's very notable that the three leaders you mentioned are all leaders of consolidated democracies that have rule of law there, a free press, they have strong checks and balances internally, politically they have deep bureaucracies, even if not deep states, and so the limitations on what those individual leaders can accomplish, as well as their term limits. Are very severe constraints on their importance to be able to reshape the political system in their interest. If you would ask How important is an individual leader like Irwin? We are suddenly

shoots down a russian plain and what had been a good relationship becomes literally a relationship on the precipice of war within forty eight hours. Now that is a dramatic change. If you ask me how important individually to like she's in paying who has consolidate more power since any leader like now right, enormously. We import Putin enormously important, but Trump as a guy he's, one guy and most of the stuff the trunk tries to do fails. built in part, because you were me, we're gonna build a wall. No, do you think we're Is Mexico gonna pay for a and not gonna pay for many. the interesting suddenly report, the Mexico and of course I mean you know. I think the idea that the Americans in the Mexicans are working together to actually send more money to Central America has tried critic create conditions that will make it more conducive for refugees. Not to try to leave is a pretty constructive thing that has happened under the Trump administration.

Not many people talk about, because the wall is much sex or even though it is not going to happen, mean trump tweets very effectively and foresee CNN. This is a ever ending plane crash right. He is the gift that keeps on giving two ratings and I get it right. I mean if I am trying to focus audience engagement foreseen at MSNBC. I have to cover trump all the time, but if you ask me, Does that in any way relate to the policies that are being passed in the United States and the policies that are not being passed? And I think the answer is no you'd really think those who talk about to collate of countries. If there were no twitter, what would be different trump Wendy in it you think literally, but for twitter he's not present maybe twitter and Facebook. I think that in a few it, both in our own in Brazil, the new president, if you look at Trump in the United States, if you look at the success that the communists and the national front had in France almost not allowing more chronic it into the second round, the altar

for Deutschland in Germany definitely solve, and the League Instagram for them was most important in ITALY. I think that social media has facilitated these populist nationalists in ways that were completely unknown. Even five years ago. I think that this is the sit. The single biggest surprise thing that just none of us expected five years ago was you would have a president who, in real time, to talk to not just as the three or four and followers, but literally three hundred million Americans, because of the pick up in the press when he wakes up in the morning and has a crazy thought in his head. That's right his ability to create shape a never ending narrative and not just, from an changes and ever change across the world. This is happening right is is really extremism. Tenure ago, when we were talking about technology, even five Go we're talking about technology route on what the arab Spring, which of them

the ability of individuals to bring down authoritarian governments because of their smartphones rack because of their internet and suddenly with surveillance and big data and social media companies. It's all about the ability of a small number of populist leaders to bring like for, like together, create the opportunities for them to control the system. So you think visible. Urgent of this sort of em high minded ideal of social media and that, on balance. Now, platforms like Twitter, Facebook are better for the formation of autocratic governments or better for the overall autocratic kind government, but I think that with your one million followers you are a nascent directed agent. I know I'm not sure about lost a lot of people to spend some time on this believe? I'm one of where's, my inherent risk. Now, your country, you didn't, make the share, but next year I think you could reach the top ten dupe dupe. So do blame

the term presidency more on Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Twitter or Jim call me. Oh, I know I mean I I guess I would probably say door at the end of the day. I really would I mean I think the fairy making you are, the only making use we might be making news. Looking at this murder people I mean look, I can say this tool not a client, so I'm not reaching any confidentiality. The vial the terms of sharia and I'm probably violating my terms of service. If you know I can follow me at e in Bremmer, that means that are violated terms of service. I dont think that when twitters got started that they actually believe that they'd make most of their coin off of in a sort of Botz and trolls and illicit accounts But the fact that now is the case means they have a business model that requires them to support something. That is a perversion of democracy, but it was supposed to be the case that technology like this could not be barred from from countries that are trying to suppress speed.

and now you find the people going door to door in China to make sure that people don't have any and Saudi Arabia not have that content on their phones. You have it ripped me off for Paris cast of the show the comedian Hasan Minhaj Usher, who had his new series. Patriot, it's great and that finance from Saudi Arabia banned from saw just man from Sutter it. So it's you reversal of the trend was expected to be that in a proliferation of cell phones and the internet, that should be difficult for people not to have access to so that they can have access to information and and speech of all sorts and also engage in speech is not really panting out. That's because it's no longer about the great fire wall of China right. It's not about keeping information out. It's about shaping information, shaping the narrative, its determining what people are talking about, and that is much more powerful to create.

A fake news, the steering of people towards means that you find important for them has become vastly more powerful than the censorship that we discussed five or ten years rights, less about censorship and more about sort of confusing the truth, and you know I'm not. I don't you probably know on my twitter feed me. My pen tweet basically says if you are not following people you dont like you're doing it wrong, I'm here to help right and it's kind of the antithesis of the Twitter game right. That's why I follow you and I appreciate it, It's my fault. I follow lots of people, although you, although you know new the new year as I I and I a life there short, but a couple of people have dropped who have you draw, I'm not gonna sell come on wondered. I dont want to give them platform. Why not? Because some people are just overly nasty and terrible an awful beer and they are the people you agree with it No, no! That's part of the problem now, but I

Finally, there are the people that are ecologically aligned with you that are probably equally nasty. True, you name some of those people their lives. Look you're, gonna go in on twitter, you might as well I'll go in. I followed Alex Jones for one, because I thought I thought that he so odious and so awful and so terrible, but some part of me thought I should know that. There's that kind of hatred out there and have always thought that. It is important to have some sense of what the nasty is, so that you can think of better arguments to make two people who might be followers of those people. But there comes a point when you see some things that are so nasty horrible I've gotten. My fill in need see that anymore. I get that. I get that look at a funny thing and I think it has evolved right. I'm an I used to follow my low you nobbler colleagues, who I found incredibly articulate and ignore, pain in the ass and also

hateful right, but I actually thought he was a kind of person that you should sort of listen to know what he sang and he I think he has been barred from twitter, but I think if he hadn't been barred for twitter, I probably would have stopped following him more recently, just because I think it's become more damaging, and I mean I used to never block any one from my account ever and more recently I have actually blocked a few very few obvious anonymous. Russian trolls does unanimous vote controls. Yet the owner read something from the opening of your report, which strikes me cause it's a thing that we, focused on on the package and other work that I've been doing with Brennan Centre the norms and values and you say no deal we'll cycles are slow. Moving. And you say, norms and values need to develop, to become accepted and to shape institutions in societies overtime once in place. There sticky and so boring bad luck, etc, etc. It takes years

decades to knock down a GEO political order, and I, under and what you're saying about norms being sticky. That's not exact the impression that a lot of people have about institutional. Social norms in America. Under Trump they seem little less dickie. They seem a little more quickly able to be cast aside. How do you assess the domestic situation with respect to those norms? Yeah? I am still a strong believer that perhaps the most important take away from two years of trumped thus far is that his ability to actually damage Americans Tunisians is surprising limited now. Some of that is because Trump is more incompetent than he is authoritarian or corrupt right, so who's up there not mutually exclusive they're, not of course they're not. But I'm saying that I mean look at you look is authoritarianism in the fact is he had Steve bad and he had some pork. He had MIKE Flynn. Those guys are all gone,

the people around there's some that are venal, there's some their loyal. There are some that are just really bad, but you don't have a I hope, a cadre of- would be authoritarian around Trump and trumps Billy to maintain focus on what authoritarianism would mean for expanding executive power just as inconsistent. Is it possible to be an authoritarian if you dont, have sort of a deep thinking process about authoritarianism an ideology and a philosophy. I think you have to be more capable, I think, for example, I mean even character as a problem here like if Trump actually really believed in a religion or could pretend he did if his family actually loved him and he loved them back. I mean things like that. I think, would make it easier for him to a moat. and led as an authoritarian, and he can his corruption. I mean yes, there look at all of these things that he does it or goes most. Obviously, crop more than any president in history yet the kind a penny anti I mean we're not talking about, like you, know, India in Milton

Terry Development or or brazilian infrastructure, or russian metals and energy were talking about like a casino at which a condo building in in Moscow, so I'm it ultimately, the most defining characteristic of tromp is in frankly how incapable he is both emotionally and in many ways, intellectually to occupy the office and while that drives people insane It doesn't actually do very much from a policy that a kind of crazy and I get. We are saying that in an environment in which you worried about someone being evil in the various and corrupt that hey, you know, it's gonna be difficult for him to do his corrupt things, because you so incompetent his rounds himself with uncommon peoples or even the travel ban doesn't really fully work exactly because I did it wrong. Merge and people have said you know about dollar from, went when other people write his speeches. It's hard to find the lie,

as other people, are better deception in putting those words into doll treads mouse exactly, but but if we weren't in his moment, we are concerned about this other aspect of Donald Trump. It seems crazy to say that one thing that protecting America and protecting policy and keeping a safe keeping the norms intact is that the leader of the free world that President States, a commander in chief, is incompetent. Look. That is not the only thing, I'm saying the other things of the many things that I would be saying: is that we have rule of law and the United States and works. We have an independent judiciary, the United States and it works You know we are still we have. We have a free media in the United States that works less well than it used to, but it still works and that's good of journalism is very significant You know we have a lot with hundreds of thousands of people that are pretty patriotic their hard working and not very well paid the sharp every day to be in the. U S, government! You know what, when I see something you don't like, they slow role it or they leak. You'd come of it

state affect what the d I would call the deep Iraq receive you're, not getting paid now of a year. They're gonna get pay, they just they presently followed, but I mean I can not going to get that money and by the way I don't think that's acceptable, but for what? For the purpose of actors, let's not said, and I can pay federal federal workers- send your emails to India, rubber inbred or you can do that two aims as to how this will affect the one thing that the demonstrations and recently and assess it in terms of importance risk About the way heartless, let's let it be clear that this is the first time in the history of the firm that the United States domestically has made the list right. So let's talk about this one thing that the theme intrusions done recently in and see if you have a view on a necessity in terms of risk importance, There is a product of incompetence or what none. What's gonna happen, and that is the president's waking up day in deciding reportedly after a conversation with someone you mentioned a present of Turkey present earlier on

But he's gonna withdraw our troops out of Syria and he was going to do it in thirty days and it cost if a conflagration within the government, people got very upset and other people who have been more sycophantic about the President yeah. I got a little but a backbone for a minute and a half and said some things, Lindsey Grim included, and then we had the- a person who many folks thought was the adult in the room here that phrase a lot about people in Scotland, but the Secretary Defence General Matisse, resides. but Margaret the special envoys resize and now and now, of course, was going to resign. A monthly highlighted, let's big a month and a half later, which is again for accuracy of logic. So every up in arms. You haven't defence secretary resigning in writing. This letter saying that he disagreed with very basic fundamental principles of how you go about defending the country, engaging and alliances with our allies and now

even though it looks like that decision was made after conflict with thirty. One must have been very happy order. Ones now upset, because now it looks like based on what John Bolton has said: national Visor, right we're not withdrawing our troops within thirty days and work imposing conditions on Turkey before our group and, I would also add, back somewhat rights vote, but what? But, what's the question? What what you really want to do? I want to know what the hell is going on in terms of in terms of down from deciding to do something that a lot of people, I guess I guess I guess it's it's a way of it occurred to me why you're making the point you are making that his own incompetence and the structure of institutions saves us from his bad decision making, so that at the end of the day, we don't have the worst result and local people think we should be bring.

set of lots of places where we have river worse yet, but nobody likes that happening on a whim without consultation and without an assessment of the consequences and the risks and bring your allies along. So let's let me give you a bunch of counter examples. First and then I'll answer yet one counter example: Paris, Club the court Trump pulls out, but can't actually pull out until January twenty one, which means yes to win a second term from to be able to effect with that and a hope. American Ceos and governors mayors taken by anyway, and even both in our Brazil campaign things, gonna pull out actually staying in an pass climate quarter, staying in place. tromp pulls out of the iranian nuclear fuel unilaterally and everyone else. Including the Iranians, despite the fact that the Iranians going to take a big economic hit are sticking with the deal hoping the Trump only makes it to one term, and even Trump's Secretary of State privately admits that if we don't make it to two terms that the deals going to be back in place, the next american President

right, you look at NAFTA, we say we're gonna blow it up. We end up. Do the deal after a lot of storm undrawn. That looks a lot like the old NAFTA. That's probably gonna go through Congress and I'll be just fine. We the Chinese and we say we're gonna- beat him up and we put some tariffs on. But now we ve got good engagement with the Chinese, the top level an trumps can try to find a way to deal with. Do North Korea inspire and fury and then now you have a second summit, even though this no deep nuclear station, can keep going even tp, which is to withdraw its probably the biggest stupid thing. The trump has done internationally as it became president all the rest. The countries have actually gotten into it and he next american President could probably rejoin, and a japanese embassy pp referring to the Trans Pacific Partnership, the major economic trade deal that would have been forty percent of global GDP. If the Americans to join very important in terms of how you try to deal with China as a rising competitor, developing alternative trade architecture, self

just giving you a wide horizon, international things that the media has gotten insane about, because comparatively incompetent tromp has done really stupid things and yet the actual impact of those stupid things. what do you tried to accomplish? We haven't even talked about the wall that he can't build. The Mexico is not going to pay for having talked about that suddenly, not as big of a deal as everyone's talked about. Okay now again. I understand the incentives in the media for everything that Trump says to be a constant, oh, my God situations, Rachel Matter would say, but you know that drives money but and drives eyeballs, but you and I are not the business of doing And so you know, that's why we're having a sky divided drivers? Are you tried to five years, but you are not willing to do stupid drivers, you're not willing to do with DR years? That's important,

he's, not the ones I've heard, maybe the other ones you sneaky about it. But now let me aroused I just want the truth in everyone says that, but but what we're gonna be better than that right? Syria, Yoni ass! You answer but bits before before that duty What I just said, the wife you can make us think you make a lot of interesting points and the question is the EU not saying it's a good situation, not sitting is that these examples of conduct are good. Sounds like partly what you're saying is with respect to the particular dumb thing that he's trying to accomplish. It has been difficult for him to accomplish that particular dumping with its withdrawal from a particular accord or building a wall whatever else, but there still is a cost and a serious one. over time to these things happening again and again and again, because it causes a choice. In a world order that I absolutely in so far as it it's a gift somebody's trying to rip you off in their import.

You and your business or somewhere else, and they d keep failing at it. At some point, you lose all trust in that person, and sometimes you might need to work together with other peoples when your allies stop thinking. that they can believe the word of the President of the United States. That's a huge problem and call this risk in a way that maybe we can foresee right now at a no question that that had been deteriorating for some time before Trump Assad must go red line on Syria Russians muscles Ukraine, North Koreans, musty nuclear eyes and on, talking about Obama. I'm talking well before that rights of american influence globally has been deteriorating for a long time for decades. Certainly after nine eleven forever war in Iraq. Certainly after two thousand eight and shaken in Bali, in underpinnings of american capitalist system. We ve been

using a lot of influence and the rise of China has been a significant problem, and trumps presidency speeds that problem up trumps presidency He makes more leaders more quickly, hedge away from the United States as an example that they would want to ff although as a leader that they would want to engage with as an ally that they would feel committed to. That is clearly true. Trump is worse for that now on Syria, since you asked about Syria we're talking about two thousand american special forces on the ground, a side has one he has displaced eleven thousand Syrians half of his power elation five thousand refugees. Six hundred thousand are dead. He won the war. and he won the war, because the Russians and the Iranian in particular the Turks to a lesser degree, are the ones with skin in the game. They're the ones that care about the outcomes. The Americans. We set a lot of things. We dont care our willingness to do anything that was going to prevent those redeem,

he was atrocities to human beings was virtually zero and the same is true for the Europeans and so, as a consequence, we lost the war in Syria, the Russians, Iranians and Assad has won. Now the fact that Donald Trump has said he wants to take two thousand troops out and didn't bother to talk to his head of joint chiefs or hand or call as allies about it. That's a pretty broken process. That's a really stupid thing. That's very good front from suddenly saying that, oh my god, you know suddenly were losing the Warren Syria, because a trumpet one further thing. We talk about process, let's remember The reason the Americans were on the ground in Syria was because they were fighting a war against ISIS. The arguments that have been used by the foreign policy establishment in elite say we ve got to defend the Kurds with that humanitarian issues. The Russians are gonna, have a vacuum. We need leverage for the political outcomes. None of those

whoever approved by Congress ever as a reason for american special forces on the ground. By the way, I think that none of them we're gonna, make a difference. The only thing aside from process. five and the fact that our allies are losing their beliefs in us, one thing we are gonna lose is two thousand smart and women on the ground who eyes and ears for intelligence gathering, which we need in terms of fighting the law which we need in terms of understanding what the Iranian are doing in the region, which we need in terms of ISIS, taking those two thousand troops out will be a significant hit to the american ability to continue to have that entails. That we won't get in any other way when you think they're gonna come out. I don't think so.

Thirty days I'm getting leaving, they could still be there near its possible, but I think I do think that term the likelihood that those two thousand troops leave in the next six to twelve months, probably more than fifty percent. Even though the President, a United himself said who says he's he keeps keeps promises. Promises to coming out. Thirty days yeah. He says a lot of things he changes is mine in his based doesn't care and he hasn't even get punished for it. So I mean again met that feels like a question that you're not really asking me that you're the question- I don't know you, you know that both of both of us know the answer to his own am struggling with which one noticed overall August at back, but asked about this right. Oh all, right. I know you interview people to become another. We kiddies we agree because how many times do you and I see people that are interviewing folks, asking questions that they know they know that everybody, including the audience, knows the answer to what they want the gotcha moment owner I don't believe in God your moments, what what I'm? What I'm trying to get at? And you have talked about this in a way we know each other, the audience and others

I would even France, even France, near even for at conferences and in other places where the subject is discussed and I ask you, don't know the proper answers, because on the one hand you say things like an and there's a lot of truth to what you say that at the end of the day near the worst aspirations of Donald Trump may have and the undercutting institutions everything else in this litany of examples. You gave very heartwarming those things don't come to pass. So it's not good it's a problem, but the country will stand and it's not so terrible and on the other, and their people, who I also understand and believe and respect, am sort of in the middle who say people not sounding the alarm enough people should be using the word treason. You know,

like the frog in the water. That boiling doesn't realise how bad it's becoming, because a frog is shot in the head, the other, the famous metalogy in metaphor there who would like to use- and they say what happens when you take the sort of optimistic view. A little bit is that things get normalized and then the did. The pen, lots of small academic say the path to real autocracy happens because of complacency in them, people who say well, it's not so bad, it's not so bad. He was diamond here. They would, he knew he was stymied there and then, before you know it, these people say intelligence. More also before you know it, our freedoms have been taken away. Terrible things have happened in we're on a very, very terrible downward path, mean desperate, had been elected before they become despatch. Look up one another. The institutions are different in Turkey is not like the United to America, but I'm having a problem trying to understand

How the public and individual citizens within the public, how alarmed and upset and active they should be given those two poles of concern, what it does sound like you are talking about your spectrum of people on one side of people on the other side. That spectrum only includes people that can stand trap the entire spectrum. It does not include people who actually think that Trump reflect something that needs to happen and contract correct, and I think that's the problem right. In other words, I think that there is a deeper problem, then the election of a man who then who Donald Trump is, which is how could a system like the United States get to the point where so many Americans either thought that they should vote for him or thought that it didn't matter? They didn't need to vote because nothing they could do would change the lies that they were being told by the elites in the sitting at reaching their howling at a symptom. Yes, without thinking deeply about the recall that

actually right and which I see happening, not just the United States, but in the UK, with breaks it and across Europe and pretty much every developed economy in the world except Japan for reasons that are very clearly unique to Japan. No immigration shrinking population, very few adults on social media, no military involved in the broad Japan is very specific. Bandages different Japan is different if I thought it is like floored in a better way no alligators right, hangover, no no people running around naked inconvenient stores with weapons I mean they did that doesn't happen in Japan, people people have floor, You have to Paypal and Rembrandt with two other years. They people in Japan and India, very even even salted alot of people and things here, but not that are listened to this part castle. We're ok, I'm sorry, mister or the future abandoned agonies and is therefore

did it. Do I mean the answer? Your question? I mean in terms of what what does it mean these people that say that this is treasonous behavior? I I am less willing to talk just about trumps treasonous behaviour, because I believe that people like myself have been complicit over the past decades in allowing us to get to the point where people want to vote for crazy protests. Things people want make the system they need. We, I think we need, as a country, to spend more time, focusing on the next time around wouldn't get someone like Trump, whose competent some of my trunk was capable, which is much more dangerous to us. I think we should focus on that. I don't think the media's focused on that. I think, instead there- is this incredible screaming match going around of treason and fake news, treason and fake news, which I dont think actually gets us anywhere I'd. Much rather have the conversational which really happening. I think that more useful, what the globalist a globalist is, someone

Who believes that the system of open borders, free trade or Ashton comparatively open borders, comparatively free trade and the United States, with allies providing services of a global sheriff for Marshall and global security. That is the best system for citizens in your country to support that's globalist? A globalist is very different than someone that thinks. Globalization is a good thing. Globalization clearly has succeeded as a system, and so the rationale, for definition, is able to use these terms in early May. Take sides with respect to something by assuming that everyone is talking about the same thing. So when, when a guy like Steventon, who was in perhaps is in trumps orbit,

Rails against globalism, what is he would he sang? He's really gets the Party of Davos he's railing against all all of these individual elites, the mainstream media, the academics, political leaders of establishment parties, the heads of businesses and financial and tunisians who are arguing, ailing at the thing that you are describing. Yes, it's a different kind of thing. Yes, he's profited Miami heat out to be fair, Steve Ban and also occasionally couches. These things in more Ethno now general terms and certainly among members of the all right people have used global. Some to mean bastard and again see Illuminati Jus right. That is now. The way Globalism has historically been used, and it's not it's, certainly not the way that I think that intelligent members of society should use our

the EU should seed the term globalism to people who want to make it an evil, nefarious slur right and they were people who were of a particular ideological persuasion. Don't see the word liberal right. That's right exists, or people in a railing against homosexuals, called them queer, and then we had to develop new queer nation and they owned that turned themselves in that struck me as so much more healthy way to go about it. So I'm glad that at the end of your report. You say we will all live forever. I did not say that now has a different report. That's what I took from Nazi in Bremmer. Thank you for being wasted levelling out of here So folks, at the end of the show today, I wanted to take a compliment to share with you a sad story, it's about someone you probably never heard of, but that I want to tell you about his name's, Patrick Egon

about five years ago, when I was a: U S, attorney for the southern district of New York, a young man bright, capable warm friendly, dedicated to doing the right thing, walk into my office looking for a job as an assistant. U S attorney! That was Patrick Egon Patrick, was a kind of person. You wanted to be around the kind of person wanted to have in the trench with you popular friendly, smart dedicated an excellent prosecutor, who I essentially stole from the Manhattan DA's office, and so he became a federal prosecutor in the southern district of New York. Well last week, after an all too quick fight with cancer, Patrick Egon, passed away. Now there are a lot of people and government that you hear about who seek the limelight and get the line

many them undeserving of it, but their people- I patrick you, never hear about drug Egon, even though he went to the best schools, you went to Yale undergrad to the President Michigan LAW school he never ever sought fame. He never sought wealth All he did was serve after law school. He went, honours programme candidate to the Justice Department to do, and I trust work, Then he went to the Manhattan DA's office and they came to the southern district of New York. All he did was try to protect the public serve the public while also letting his family and being a great colleague to all his friends and peers every place. He went. so at this time we seem to be surrounded by selfishness and everyone Get something for themselves. I want you to know the name, Patrick Egon. This public servant who care more about doing things for commute

in his country than ever. Else you'll meet. He leaves behind three young children, Conor Molly and call and also a greeting wife, sarah- and I want to say a word to me former colleagues at the southern district of New York. All you out there you know As a prosecuting office, full of people who enforce the law try cases, and it is that before the people who work there, as I said before, it's also a kind of second family people care about each other. They take care of each other in this week's loss is devastating to them. Heartbreaking

and there's a lot of grief. So, as you read about the cases which will go on and people will be professional, you should know that the people there are human beings to and their suffering a lot because of the loss of their dedicated and beloved colleague, Patrick. So I sent them a lot of love and as a lotta hugs and it s. The final obvious point that we too often forget is that life is short and sometimes the best people don't live long enough. Patrick Egon. may you rest in peace. That's it for this episode of state in thanks, again my guest in Bremmer, if you like, show rate and reviewed and apple podcast. Every positive review help new listeners find the show then we are questions about news in politics to eat them may at present.

aspirate or give me a call at six hundred and sixty nine, two hundred and forty seven, seven thousand three hundred and thirty, eight six hundred and sixty nine who for pre or you, can send an email to stay tuned, a cafe, dotcom stay tuned is presented by carpet. is by cat errand and the team Pineapple Street Media, Henry Malagigi, Joel Level, generalised, vermin, ten MAX Linsky, these ethnic producer cafe this democracy In a cafe team is Julia Doyle, Calvin Lord, in a basket and justifies our music. Is my hundred asked I'm prepared statement This episode is sponsored by sales Force customer three sixty your unique, and so your customer sales

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