Here's the thing: saving money with Geico was almost better than playing pick up basketball, because there's always that guy who joined your game, He never passes the rock he constantly bricks theories and who completely you and then put his hands up and say no foul, no foul with Geico. It's easy to switch save on car insurance. No, the vacant fake, an ankle sprain because you're absolutely exhausted so which in save with Geiger it's almost better than sports, welcome You should now from house have works that more progress than George Clark, there's Charles the beach or brain he's over there somewhere often the either

think on their just in the ether man we're going to breathe right now, with a tank at either end. There appeared much different target Josh and checks: either can still put those things Oh, I don't know, surely right now is it look like in the bottle still like that? Eighteen, it's I don't know. I think he does have a little butter milk bottle. He put it in a rag. Put your face. Lingo too happy count. Exam if there is any farms is out there that want to set a straight. Let us know how either comes these days, this public ass, the I imagine it's not like a hundred times, and I think we talked about it before an Anastasia problem, either gas, but a weird start here. That has nothing to do with what we are about to talk about those trying to related. But there is nothing one of my favorite favorite topics of all time: nuke

Holocaust, from the Cold war yeah, but we did, we did want uncovered in when I return several here with we'd better around this thing that we ve never done a four nuclear power, Caspian gas every now and nuclear holocaust- isn't that's not quite right is not the right way to put it, because what we are talking about is actually the after effects from a nuclear holocaust. Isn't that the Holocaust here is the nuclear holocaust? Is the immediate destruction as a result of exploding nuclear bombs over like pop in centres, and I didn't know that I thought it was the whole kitten caboodle. I should say if you're purist- and you want to say it from my opinion, that nuclear ok,

what's going on here. Gotta yeah Robert Lamoureux, this stuff to blow your mind. Yet I have to say I said man way to go on now is a good one. You tell them that I did actually other those were bloody. Say thanks me. The thing that gets me about nuclear winner with we'll talk about in depth of white fascinates me about it. Just as much as the nuclear winner itself Chuck here is the the controversy debate that there arose from it throughout the eighties There is a huge debate debate on the severity debate, debate on whether something to worry about or not yet, oil? I looked up because I was like is: does anyone think that this is a myth out an outright myth and from what I saw? My research is that no, this is fact is just a dispute

the dispute, is the scenario and the severity of what would happen. But no one says like now: there would be no nuclear winter. There would be no problems after a nuclear bomb, so there used to be like back in in the early eighties, when this is of huge new thing. Yet, there was a group of scientists who were hawkish very much in favour of the. U S, building up its nuclear arsenal as much as possible and sir. They basically a pr letter writing campaign to discredit the science behind this They are. These guys are no they're talking about, so they think that the bomb would drop and then it like the next day the birds would be out there. They they said Billy yeah there was kind of their position was distant, poles and ass. No, it wasn't wasn't it wasn't legitimate it's right yet and sound like and then they ultimately, the whole point was that this came from an argument.

Or whether, the? U S should engage in the FDA, Strategic Defence initiative or STAR wars, which is the lasers that shoot nukes from space right? vague. We didn't shoot down nukes from state with it has shown that it might not. Yet there was another one it, but that's what the whole thing was in the context of was an argument over what over either nickel, disarmament, which Carl Sagan and his friends were in favour of hippies or nuclear proliferation. In Britain. The STAR Wars programme warmonger right. They fight these virtues. The warm up at the weird thing is: is this debate chuck took place in the pages of like academic journals and ended up being a fight between science in science, deniers yeah. It sounds like these scientists that you mention might have been had their coffers full from the. U S, government, potentially

or private industry or something like that and the thing is they use this old chestnut where so if you're a scientist, there's no certainty in anything. You say You can always be disprove. Remember we talked about this in the scientific method episode all your stuff can be disproven, ultimately, which is why it's just a theory So no science is gonna, be like this is a hundred percent certain right. Well, these other scientists who were poking holes in it would point out these guys aren't even certain, which means that there's there's disagree over whether we'll have a nuclear winner or not, so they were being made disingenuous in poking holes in it by saying, decides asserted, certain in their findings, will know scientists certain I know so, David Tizzy public. You think our these scientists can't say that their certain so that they must not know what they're talking about that's dangerous. That's. Why were the three minutes to midnight on the doomsday clock? Exactly

because some people might say well, you're, not certain. So let's does not act fast enough and I should say also check. We should prepare for a lot of listener. Male, because this is a conservative flashpoint. Nuclear winner is long standing, one, sounds good, but some of us are I or Robert starts where most people should start when talking about nuclear winner nets in the atmosphere. A very finely tuned system. We have, I want to say it's like homeostasis, but it's not people, so I guess it's like an eco stasis where the sun, just enough son, gets through to make things, make the earth habitable and proliferate with plants and water,

humans and animals and all kinds of great stuff back too much sign, even by a little bit, could be catastrophic and too little or even by little bit could be catastrophic right. So we ve thanks to humans. We ve struck at great balance here with the sign a great deal A! U can shine sunshine too much sun and its working out balsam. The idea of nuclear winner is that there would be an ash from and smoke. It's really not. Fall out from the nuclear bombs themselves, who I understand it's more the smoke from the resulting fires that would cause the blocking out of the sky and the sun not getting through its actually all of it. Yet everything. I read across the board said it's almost one hundred percent the smoke right that goes on. Yes, it's true, I mean you

you shouldn't- negate the idea that, like nuclear radiation poisoning, is going to kill a lot of people as a result, but the came out of the skies is adding to the smoke from fire exactly from the barn that happened right. So this whole thing, the context of it again comes from the the seventies re Chuck, ear and eightys the year and in back, and I think the nineteen seventy five issued a statement that said you know thereby wouldn't be that big of a fall out from nuclear explosions few years, to that another group, I think that the first group as National Academy of Sciences, the another group said neither are. We don't think, that's exactly true. We think that they're, probably as some sort of there will be some

but we are, Models- are too primitive yet to say for certain what the follow up will be a few years after that Carl Sagan in his crew get together and said no there's going to be serious consequences in here. They are billions of lives, lost, rebellion, pavilions right and one of the things they base this on. This idea on that, if you view a bunch of smoke or particulate matter into the atmosphere that it will have, a negative influence on the global climate is dump past history from volcanic eruptions. Yes, must know that while there are a few over the years, but one of the notable ones in eighteen, eighty three the time than the Dust Dutch EAST Indies now Indonesia, Krakatoa

that. Volcano was massive to the tune of thirty six thousand deaths just from the volcano, and this is incorrect. In eighteen. Eighty three yellows only like ten people, their think about it's not like it was super populated by two thirds. Krakatoa collapsed, The smoke arose up and warmed the global temperature global by two point, two degrees Fahrenheit They get no lowered it yet lowered Sarka took five years for temperatures to return to normal and it affected This was in Indonesia and it actually, they think, increase the rainfall. In LOS Angeles by more than double that next year. Well, that's an airway in southern California, so there was the Krakatoa blast, eighteen, eighty three right yeah in that it literally changed the color, the sky. For, like years afterward, the sky was read such that they think

the scream. The painting, the squire, much yeah the red sky. They think that's no way this guy look to us because of this volcano, so neat in the crazy that guy is like the volcano maybe said the man saying- and this is a mile. What was the other one in the mountain bore here and once again, Indonesia get bad luck with the volcanoes back in the nineteenth century and this was actually earlier in eighteen, fifteen near I remember learning about this. When I was a kid kiss, Ohio got it really bad Vulcan went off in Indonesia in eighteen fifteen. In the following year. Much of the United States did I have a summer. Actually called the year without a summer and Ohio was effected. Yes, yo. You others like snow on the ground in the middle of July. Do you learned state history, glass, eye Ruby there, yet your state history, that that was like a full course that are

yeah half of those sitting around the teacher like staring off another distance right. I remember I was just like a lot of talk about Crawford long in the civil war, that would be intolerable, Crawford Long hours, not busy wooden from Georgia. Anyway. The battle found timbers Summer, without Yemen a year without a summer evening, they seem like canals and locks the donkeys used to pull barges on yeah. I remember Crawford Long, a lot of racism here, basically yeah history, right so that was mounted him Bora there without summer. There have been other events like when the oilfields burned during the

in the war and early nineties, the apparently Carl Sagan predicted a basically a nuclear weapons from their yeah. That's fat pan out we're that's where he d take some flak was it was not nearly as bad. The fall out from that smoke is second predicted. But what can you do predict you can be wrong yeah, usually, surely you can be wrong, doesn't mean you should be like. Oh wow, that smoking do much. Let's start building nuclear bombs again near well, that's the whole thing chuck. I am so glad you said that because- That's the whole mad thing to this argument. Yes, it's like what What do you use arguing in favour for if your arguing against idea, ignoring millions, have precisely? Are you arguing for yeah? I get won't be there. We'll talk a little bit more about it like later on, in the show what some people have argued about, but it seems like what you say. Ultimately, you argue

in favour of more nuclear weapons. That seems wrong, headed by definition, what naughty just that, but using them won't be as bad as you say. Right, hey not just have them by well the follow it wouldn't be as bad as they are predictable use. Em. You almost got the impression, like their dislike, we'll find out what a life. If I know what happens when you see him right and then, as they die for a month smoke inhalation. They said I was wrong whenever I get this us take a break thurii. Let's do come back and we'll talk a little bit more about the new killer winner. Here's the thing save Money with Geico was almost better than playing pick up basketball, because there's always that guy who joins your game,

he never passes, the rock he constantly bricks theories and who completely You and then put his hands up and say no foul, no foul with Geico. It's easy to switch save on car insurance known the vacant ankle sprain because you're absolutely exhausted, so which in save with Geiger it's almost better than sport. I said Nicholas, Just by now I heard the breakers good stuff and I want to point that out get some people might think of serious know another. You said it was in just some people, like maybe TAT man was my hero. Ads are posted something a facebook. The other David said your silencing wrong as a joke, and people call me up

look, you can't you cited the verb, I thought and remember. Last winter you could use like everything as a firm minister, you have people, have gotten streamline serious, extremely self serious, I'm not sell serious person none of the din and today's world, you're a relic dinosaur, stupid, laughing dinosaur without speaking of dinosaurs. Well, I guess we should talk about the Katy Boundary extinction event, which was some people some in science if their rights it that's what happened to the dinosaurs woods. There was an impact winter, not quite the same as

their winter, but the same effect as a nuclear winter due to the impact of an asteroid threat and that would have happened at the border of the cretaceous in tertiary periods. Again when the dancers all died off. Still inexplicably there there's. No there's no definitive answer again, though, we're talking science found a journal. There's your diary day. Something is wreaking through the sky is making everyone nervous. It's very now, but I noticed the dinosaurs or dying. So that's good! Oh this is it I saw a writing my opinion BO. So that's bad bright, red, ok, so, let's hope Nuclear went right

you were you can set it earlier, but the whole idea behind nuclear winners that if you shoot off nuclear bombs, especially a bunch of all you have to understand at the time that the scientists We started a debate this. There were like seventy thousand nuclear warheads like Many many times more nuclear warheads in existence in like the early eighties than there were today when they started debating em. They really took up this cause because the in a ministries who was saying we need the STAR Wars Programme, because we can. We can prevent almost with you. No ninety percent, certainly a soviet nuclear attack right laser guns exactly, and so these scientists who were concerned scientists based we anti nuke scientists, said wait a minute

there's something that you guys aren't thinking through here. If you do that, the sole you're gonna say well wait a minute. If this thing is ninety percent effective, then we need to build nuclear arsenal, so that when we shoot everything we got at them. Yet still that ten percent will totally- and I like the United States, that the presence of the STAR Wars Programme was going to till to put the nuclear arms, in the even higher gear than it already was yet. So they very much took it upon themselves to to tackle this with science, but also publicize it and sell it to the public and its back. That's stuck in the cry of a lot of other scientists a particularly scientists who were in favour of nuclear proliferation as matters of national defence that right, enough: it is when they tackled this. They said it. Here's the big problem with it. If you should offer bunch

clear bombs. Oh, I allow do clear bombs, which could totally go off as far as a nuclear war is concerned. Yet it's going to cause a lot of smoke to enter the atmosphere, and that is where this domino effect is going to create this global catastrophe The hope outcome of it is based on the number of nukes that you shoot off. Right is basically what Carl Sagan in his body, Richard Turco, divided the different types of nuclear winter into that right, Mr Sagan and Mr Turco, or they doctors. Let us call everyone a doctor. Well yeah he was proceeding, was a doctor of Astro chemistry. I believe an Richard Turco ISM that Mary and I can't remember what he was there: called a path where no man thought a path where no thought and seem like The one more word there.

And they have one two, three, four five six scenarios for what the nuclear winter might look like, ranging from minimal two x, cream and minimal best Scenario, which is just a little the nuclear attack that many going off, maybe like let's say, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, I will talk about this very large twenty twenty one kiloton yeah. That means that there would be minimal cloud cover not environmental impact globally and the two it'd areas would be wiped out, of course, but the world itself would not have the consequences right atmosphere, so You are talking a nuclear war, especially a cold war, nuclear war. There was a early unlikely scenario, Maya

this then the early nineteen eighties roles, random people started talking about the very concept of a nuclear winner, those like Hiroshima, Saki the level nuclear bombs here, we're like attach the average fighter jet. Yet they were considered like this technical like the EU. Just could shoot em off a battlefield if you needed to so the idea that it would just amount to that is unlikely. It was, but there then that's the best kitten They're trying to cover all avenues here, number two is marginal, and that's a few that nations again in the northern hemisphere, and they said it would lower the temperature by few degrees, and there would be some crops in some agriculture that suffered and probably some famine, but it would not o black reign, of course near who wants that? Did happen in Hiroshima? Yes,

They drank it you and died from having to go yes because it was radioactive rain gather they drank it because they were firstly because they had a why? Yes, it's dead you and everyone should have to go to the city of Hiroshima, like it is making what they ve done too, to preserve. Why Then there is like a teaching lesson for everyone. Here, it's really moving. We should have one of those here we should. Instead, people are like Japan forced the: U S, job the bomb, its fact right. Is not correct right, so black rain would happen in that marginal scenario me- and this is a really political, every citizen at any time you tackle nuclear words, gonna be divisive near to some people, think its awesome nuclear waste, gotta do something things below the equator and that scenario in the southern hemisphere would be just fine. So here's something

I found really interesting and wrong in this some analysis of it Sagan. I guess he was strictly talking about atmospheric affects yeah, but he mentions, like famine and stuff like that. The thing is that would have a global effect for sure yeah, the rest of the World depends in large part on North American, we in corn. So if there's a nuclear fallout in North America that affects our crop yields dramatically, his family, the? U S, it's gonna cost famine. Well I'll. Tell ya area, I think weighty, saying is as far as climate, technologically speaking here what he and Turco or saying is as long as shooting of nuclear bombs in the southern hemisphere. It's gonna take climate, logically speaking, be unaffected right or largely ineffective, because the wind goes down. The equator them back by equator separates the hemispheres. As far as the atmosphere is concerned, you are totally there would still be global troubles. Yes,

but but in reading on scenarios it made me really want to move to Austria here. Well, that's another thing to how many people would be. Like I mean you get out of the United States New Mexico moving down to Brazil are moving down to Australia, and then the infrastructure in those countries are just super stressed. Because of the northern hemisphere that survived suddenly moving down of the southern hemisphere, yet another widespread effect. Mexico would help you too much. Will avoid weren't? They like super helpful inner independence day was an independent state or the morning or another the day after tomorrow. Nobody certain having the move south, because North America is frozen ice sheet. But I just mean, as far as you'd have to get pretty far self further south in Mexico. If you want to escape the atmospheric fall out, o you right and so Ecuador yeah like what is it like of Africa and South America and the near hemisphere are here another half the

the northern hemisphere would show up at the southern hemisphere. Doorstep selling thus in July or get used to it. That's right, you're drain because the other way when you are released the water from the Tub Nido. I know Christmas isn't fallen July, a visa, the metaphorical statement, negative nominal nuclear winners three. That is what they consider the low end. Full scale nuclear war right, but still full scale, six thousand twelve thousand nuclear weapons. That's all just six to twelve thousand nuclear bombs. Right we're talking a mega, Tyner, more bombs and make a time was, I think, fifty Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs combined so twelve thousand times fifty of those for this kind of nominal nuclear war. There Lazarus near.

Predicted noon. Sunlight would be about a third of what it was a global temperature drops of eighteen degrees. That's bad news, my friend they would destroy a lot of the ozone layer. And again, the southern hemisphere, wooden experienced major climactic change to catch the southern hemisphere, they're all at the beach there's like the topical music playing that they have no wheat. Who needs we when you go around drinks, you that's a teacher just clerks at that number for substantial. That is full on nuclear war, freezing temperatures, big time fall out the whole day. Would be like its overcast here, Billy of humans dead billion. Billions and billions species going extinct. And finally possible damage to the southern hemisphere. Finally, possibly

and then the last to weaken this bunch together. I think severe in extreme less than one percent of the sunlight getting through for months and months on in global temperature, dropping no photosynthesis happening with every crop dying. All life perishing. Let's just go ahead and rapid up right there, as Robert puts it most of the planet's life, would perish within the chill confines of this black atmosphere, tomb, yeah, he's ever love Grafton under that is unable to mere checkers, was taken. Break, and then we will come back and talk about the fall out from nuclear war. Theory

what was your first musical memory or the first out and ever more that first county, Panama question over the legendary roots coup and those are some of the things I want to know about and when I am, a team Supreme sit down with the gas for new episode of my pockets question supreme. We chat with favour creators and figures. We find out what makes them great, not about gadget journalists, mostly story, though not those. If someone was spilt into the olive table, it's really about knowledge forces and the hours upon hours of work that goes on not only when the spotlight dawn, but also on my way what that was in the course of supreme on the iron radio.

Apple podcast, wherever you guess your pocket so, like we said, Carl Sagan in his friends got together and basically took it upon themselves to educate the public about the potential catastrophe, That could happen as a result of nuclear war. Everybody before was like yeah. That would really stuck to be in a city that a nuclear bomb went off on, but

Maybe it would be my city, I live in Schenectady New York. Don't get abounds connected, so I'm probably gonna be ok. These guy said hey western Civil is not just in the: U S but also the USSR. That's not necessarily the case. You too will be affected, which can be big problems after this after a nuclear war here, so much so that, let's make sure that our leaders never do this right, wake up, basically what they are doing and so saying and his friends created a paper and its now called the Tita paper after all, of their names right Turco Tune, Ackerman, Pollack and ok. They are worth the paper and had it published in science, the pre minute scientific journal in the United States. There is a big deal here, They also held a very well publicized conference and Karl Sake and apparently without the the group's knowledge or blessing, went off and also road.

Some parade magazine, our guests sure that every they can Jane in the. U S new, This was a free page, article about the nuclear winter, which is a new term at the time complete with illustrations where, like that, the earth was like the dead lifeless with colleagues, a great shock. Billiard ball basically get this really scary Staffordshire and then he also simultaneously wrote another longer peace that was in foreign affairs. But the little more wonky so save him off after writing. This this scientific paper and publicized it to policymakers and to the american public, gathers the early nineteenth eighties and is seventeen eighty three and you did this before all the sciences- and this is from the first paper yet for the first papers conquered Buzz even held right and a lot of people, including people who were on his side about this You were really mad at him because it opened up the this group and

all idea of nuclear winner to allegations, they were fearmongering yet and that they were basically trying to sell the public on science which, as you know, that's not what science does right there pure science is about research and coming up with facts and whether their popular unpopular, it doesn't matter scientist sides. In fact, this fact right. A good theory is a good theory, but these guys again were concerned something really really bag had happened and they went the trouble of taking it upon themselves to advertise it to the public, but again seeking afternoon, is a really open about for a lot of allegations and debate that took place afterward. But some say that the their work in the tea taps report actually did help cool things down in the cold war, a little bit yeah. In that I mean it wasn't just these american scientists. They work for soviet scientists as well, and apparently sometimes it went good, sometimes think of it. So well, but they're both sides

We are working on this issue and the fact that it gets so much publicity actually created a fire, on the back and forth in the scientific community. This issue ended up getting really well studied there. It is enough seven years later. They revised- report. Ninety ninety, and had new, more modernize data, and it was quite as dire which some critical. I bet this little more reasonable yesterday, revised collared than nuclear autumn, and everyone loves autumn there. All the time would be wonderful men, it would be wonderful the Czechs world, and they there are disagreements over that. Still they basically there's a few for very rules that are always the factors that are announced in its really there all. To make another one for versions of this.

Variable witches? We don't know how much smoke there would be. Yes, we just don't in number, one is how much material is there to burn. So the idea is you the bomb on a city locally, and everything catches on fire, and that creates a tremendous amount to smoke, but Since these are all theoretical and you don't know what would happen with you drop something size on like the same made Did you like New York where, like what would be there to burn what we just don't know? Well, that's that's yes! So if you jotted down a city, is it an old city? That's that isn't supermodel, sure and therefore isn't bill out of like glass and plastic that can get into the atmosphere and really messed things up like the really bad. Yet, if it's an old city may be the burning wouldn't be so bad, even after a nuclear holocaust or maybe you're, not shooting nuclear bombs to cities bite,

their nuclear installations, that around the middle of nowhere in Nebraska right because we have any with there's been like two thousand nuclear bombs detonated, but they only to honour cities right exactly nothing else win out over the ocean or in the middle of nowhere and there's been no fire right. The assumption is that, though, if you shot nuclear bomb, at an at a modern city a really toxic smoke would be produced. This probably the worst case scenario in both the immediate nuclear Holocaust. Last year and the the fall out the nuclear winner as a result, because of all the smoke that would be created, I mean look at the fall out from nine eleven, and that was two buildings right. The second variable- is how much would remain in the atmosphere than how much goes back to the earth them Well, you know no windows at all. How much sunlight would be deflected again, just theorizing

you can go back and plug in these numbers. Yet the problem is, if you d tractor of nuclear winner theory, you would say you that's a guess right, where'd, you get that number here. You know and you could take every number and come up with a different model for each one. They usually don't do that, but even still it's like which one's going to be the one and again it goes back. How much smoke would there be to begin with? And finally, when did it happen if it was actually in winter? Perhaps it's not so bad? yeah nuclear winner and winner, ironically, is the best case scenario, the best case scenario of the bad scenarios right, so they they did initially back off of their findings. They said that it was their could initially be like a thirty five to forty degree drop in global temperatures. It celsius yeah. So we're talking like seventy

degree. Seventy two degrees Fahrenheit drop in temperature, so that's about full on nuclear war, yeah it yes later on, as they revise their findings and, more again, more more more scientists got involved in studied this issue. They came upon what seemed to be a consensus that you could probably countenance something like a fifteen degrees celsius drop in global temperatures, which will be substantially could still have widespread effects right. Yes, sir This from this debate, nuclear winner kind of got settle down. There was a scientific consensus that came about. There was also consensus there. Not only with the huge problems inland there'll, be. Oh, she oceanic problems as well there, because one of the things one of the great casualties of debt

leaving nuclear bombs. Is the ozone layer, the the fire of all from the blast burns, nitrogen converting it? The nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxides is punches. Holes basically came. Burns, the ozone layer so then went all that smoke that acting as well an umbrella. That's blocking out the sunlight falls back to earth. All at particulate matter falls back to earth and is radioactive by the way here now this Neither does come through is way hotter, as way more you ve light than it had before. The nuclear bombs went off the carbon A little delicate balance is not disrupt exactly the problem. For the oceans is that that you ve would likely be too intense for Fido plankton at the ocean surface yet well, that is the Keystone species for the Ocean aquatic environment. The ecosystems all start with fighter painted zooplankton feline phytoplankton

a fish feed on zooplankton, larger fish feed on little fish and so on and so on, until it is so, if you get rid of this, the fighter plankton you're in big trouble they. So there will be huge ramifications in science came to a consensus on this, but again the text very early on by nuclear proliferation hawks as basically being it against the interests of United States NASH. Security right and then later on, it continued to be attractive, became a customary traditional flashpoint. Conservatives as a great example of the links that hippy Environmental scientists will go to to dupe. American public into being scared about nuclear bombs in interest nuclear stuff in general, like Michael, creating famously attacked it in two thousand three, the age

and he his whole thing. He whose very famously a climate denier. His climate sceptics until his death, as far as I know as he did in any road some great books for is also confirmed by nature, is what he said. Well, but I get the impression that he tended to land on the more conservative anti environmental side and on this case he also attacking the nuclear winner as well and where he accused these guys are doing. Is is creating science by consensus, that to me, is that's just like a one to sucker points, so the initial scientists that that challenged nuclear winner said you guys you can't even agree. There's no consensus, like you can't be certain in what you're saying so. Therefore, we don't

to take you seriously, so they said. Ok, you know what we're gonna get all scientists around the world together to study this issue ever going to come to a consensus and when they did years later guys, like Michael Creighton, said you guys are practising science by consensus in politicize. Science it right real science, so it's like they were very much they didn't damned if they didn't in ultimately does have the kind of decide is. Is it worth the risk? Maybe we can't say for certain yeah and at the time say pursuing what cause that some of these same climate scientists are still at work and they have come up with fairly recent models using very sophisticated climate models. Compare the sufferer using back in the eighties and even the nineties. Yet this after using now says. Actually, we think nuclear winner might be worse than was initially predicting yeah, and even if it's not enough

scale: nuclear war. I think the worry there's not much worry these days for something like that. What the warriors how is that some rogue nation hold of one or maybe even not a resignation. Just the indian Pakistan drop a couple of clear bomblets. The model and like there is entirely. Well. I think of one megaton detonation is what they they did this model on and it was they had a substantial effect yeah. They said ten years of smoke, clouds and the three or temperature drop of about two point: two five degrees Fahrenheit, which doesn't sound much. But if you go back- and you read the did- that scientists study his executive summary of the study he he points out- that that kind of drop ultimately equals a shorten growing season by Kennedy.

Data and their last ten to twenty days makes her breaks a crop like. That means you can either harvested or dies before it matures and can be harvested, and so even just a couple of degrees. Can we do to widespread crop failure yeah, but this is just. India and Pakistan shoot fifty bombs at one another in a regional war there it could have that effect that around the world so we mention Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Those are the only places we can look but, like we pointed out, the bombs were so different back. Then it's not the best comparison, but as far as looking at what kind of fires could happen, You can't tell a whole lot in Hiroshima. There were more higher than a Nagasaki just because of the way geographies is in the two cities but In neither case did they see a time of it.

Dairy fires like there was a blocking out the sky, the right there was black rain, but apparently you know a week later, most of that stuff it had cleared up. But again that is They can even really compare the two. Now is a single twenty one, kiloton bomb yeah, exactly we're talking fifty of those going off in the same area. But that report You mentioned on just like of India and Pakistan will have what was it ten megatons. Fifty Fifty four! No! I was one megaton, so fifty Hiroshima and Nagasaki moms. Well, it was enough to cause the atomic scientists. Science insecurity bore to move the doomsday clock two minutes closer to midnight and the doomsday clock is some people say It's good science. Some people say there fearmongering

but what it is is it is it's a design that basically says here's how close we are to destroying ourselves as a civilization. And there are a lot of factors that go into it like. Biotechnology year, cyber technology, but the main too are obviously nuclear weapons and climate change are the two main things at factor into where the do they click set, and I think in the nineteen fifties, they only changed it. How many times, eighteen times since it was created, nineteen forty seven had they change their hands on the clock and the nineteen fifties. It was two minutes to midnight and the early nineteenth Fifty's the best. I think it's been in the early nineties was seventeen minutes till midnight on than if you'll get That's a lot of time. What arena

right now we are the closest we ve been since nineteen eighty three and on January twenty second of this year it was changed two or three minutes to midnight is where they set and they never big. Had a big press release. Now this red the opening and closing paragraphs, the opening their in twenty fifteen unchecked climate change, global nuclear weapon, modernization and outsize nuclear. And arsenals pose extraordinary. An undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity and world leaders have failed to act with bid or on the scale required to protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These failures of political leadership in danger, every person on earth and then the final paragraph and there's lots of fun stuff in between Psych, Fort jokes and stuff, and then they clause with,

in twenty fifteen, with the clock and move forward to three minutes to midnight, the board feels compelled to add with a sense of great urgency. The probability of global catastrophe is very high and the actions needed to reduce the risk of disaster must be taken very soon. They'll mess around and even though that with them we have been doing out of reducing the amount of a warheads between the United States and Russia, but things have slowed to a snail's pace. Now from two thousand and two thousand thirteen Obama cut only three hundred nine warheads from the stockpile and their basically saying we're not doing this as fast as we need to like. We need to act now yeah, well, those other people who are saying we need to rebuild their nuclear arsenal because its aging and riding, and will be useless by twenty twenty two. Twenty thirty, how we gonna drop nuclear bombs on people in the future. This

you're, like some people, are trying to reignite the cold war. Well I don't agree with it, but I know that most of those people aren't saying hey. So we can bomb people it's. So we can keep each other in Czech, yes, which was the cold war We could also Oliver getting rid of nuclear bombs entirely. We could do it and you know seconds the whole thing I should say in it's funny that he's kind of like the villain of this whole thing of the whole nuclear winner debate can be such a revered figure to such a great guy, but he really, I purposely made some serious miss them as far as publicizing the results went before their full in, but his whole thing was in. If you read, is foreign policy think his article? It's really really good. It's not too of two. So like it's kind of the red, but it's called nuclear war in climactic catastrophe, coal in some policy implications any says: like

We don't know, you know what they're what the right answer is. We don't know if it's entirely past. While their nuclear winner, maybe our Ideas are overblown or whatever, but he says, I am not willing to take the chance right. Why should we take the chance that lie thing he's like? Why risk it right so his She is, however, this? U s in? U S, s are how about you d escalate the arms race, the proliferate until you get down to of threshold, that scientists said Kate nuclear winner probably couldn't happen beyond this payload right. So even if all the nuclear bombs in the world, this lower number were set off. We still going a nuclear winter right, but you guys can take out all of your major cities.

Still fight your nuclear war, but the rest of the world one won't be destroyed by yet. There was a solution, and no one took him up. I have never understood what will they want on climate change at some point to, but I've never understood why people, then I get that economics play factor, but why risking the future of mankind for your ancestors to follow is worth it. A lot of it is fear like a lot of these people who have over the last I gave you know push for that kind of thing, like fear that in the U S will be covered, his pants down like genuinely feared the Soviet Union and like their heart, was in it like that mean if its fascinated me this whole like briskly secret publicity war, that's been going. I never went on throughout the twentieth in is well into the twenty first century. There there's a book again. I think I mentioned it called merchants of doubt. Everybody should read

yeah, then you know our saviour emails to me, because you can still think what you want to think yeah. I didn't I just personally: don't get it, I'm not gonna throw stones at you say you're on a proper should, but I would not like to throw stones. It isn't chuck Are you good, I'm great? If you want to know more about nuclear winter, you can read this fine article written by Robert Lamm by testing nuclear winter in the search bar howstuffworks dot com. Since I said search part time for oh, no, my friend, it's time for The right, and this is the time that we are now in love. When Josh and I read out and say thanks, we give thanks. We should call this thanksgiving anonymously. Detail, ok is immense

details of such a weird name. This is meant to be. So this when we think people for the further varied kind gifts that they have sent us over the months and dude. I think this goes back all the way to January. For me, oh man, I've got for Christmas. Cookies Dimona call in time and grandma calling time. I think we always say her name road, but no. I think she corrected us. Instead, it was like Valentine S. I think I'm saying you're right modestly. Some containing all right as the administrative detail, music way sounds like a great pity. I'll get it started with Richard since a guide to the round things of the solar system very funny very nicely. I remember that boy or sign as a plugin t hold their. You come home, plug your teacher training, ever forget it. It's pretty awesome actually can get on Amazon Electric Socket, unplug chain, holder search for that will bring it up the trail.

Get a postcard very nice coastguard for my jumpy airborne Asko and Stephanie Crick from Port Lock, Roy and Arctic, a nice we're thing again. Thank you, too, Mona call in time and grandma common time for Christmas cookies. We look forward to them again this year. Yes, we certainly do Oh, we ve gotten Newgate Homemade Newgate from Christian Ferguson. It's so delicious. I'm hooked on that stuff. It's great! Does she you can find her? It solves sweets, man, it is so good. The existence been sending us from Newgate for years, and I was always like, I mean you get out another that never put my mouth. It's amazing stuff, it's really good! Then we also got some sweets them dude sweet chocolate out a Texas. I think they might be out of Dallas. They made it like this. One is really great chocolate, but they also like these incredible marshmallows too. They made a sweet potato marshmallow and do that do three chocolate. Thank you for those they were amazing. You may was crazy for those marshmallows

like. I am newgate that was quite the bounty armor As always, every Christmas or body air Coopering, Kansas Census, freight pronounced of these great Photoshop that he does of us that he puts on and you can see him on internet round up here. We even gotta tee shirts, the sheer shake of origin job, so coop you're the best that is true, coop mark out the trade monkey team scientists and beautiful jewelry made by female artisans Southeast Asia and treated fairly tee. Our body then Austrians in his book, which want which book Well he's always sending stuff. So he didn't like honest it. Can you remember which book, but we have like boxes full of things he said he's Senator C b of the Shags philosophy of the world.

It was known as the worst album ever recorded. We got it my death, that's the problem is that my computer has never see the drive any longer. Have you noticed it's gone now, yet computers? I have this any longer, try to find a no, my computer. I d I was like what's that little slot new, that's where the tissues come out, its coffee cup Our bodies from Venice is sinking band, sinister Lp Santa minds innocent what we do is secret and there are our friends from Athens, yup torture huge thanks to Hilary loaves, are who sent us the cheese of last year, some of the best cheese Whitehead Lake Cheese Montana, which, like they make a hop Outta, that's the guy, for that is very good Whitehead Lake Cheese and she sent some often tee shirts, that they mouth the alarm Less than a bar episode

Beth, she and her husband might have been bigtime fancier very active on her face what age and they like drove the Seattle for a show for money from one yeah she's, a teacher, and they sent you me and Emily earring. So thanks for that from all of us here yet nothing Tommy look Rick, Tummy, look rich, look, Rick muttered. He said to myself his last name, you say for time: well, he's a guy he's walkin from Seattle in New York City, and if you want to follow this up, I'd be thereby now Tommy walks that tumblr dot com. You can take that up. Huge huge thanks for me personally, Dolores no, you remember when we did the hot wheels episode. Why do I? I said that the well. I would like to have this like station again camper, that's a good time, camper honour! I remember she mailed it to me. That's pretty remarkable yet so! Thank you very much lower snow. That's very nice!

yeah. If anyone's listening my favour, hot, we always the one that had a thousand dollars stuff them at the body that is beginning seven Stephan Brom he sent some currency banknotes which collective money, but he sent a nineteen, fifty three dollars to forget and nineteen fifty seven series to dollar bill in an eighteen, seventy four fractional currency, ten set. Note yellows. Pity me. I think you got the tints it now ass. We started with a splendid until we know

What's this since answer the fraction of enough meteorologist Michael Herb, who also moons moonlight as a young adult murder, mystery author sent us a book of one of his murder: mysteries can Macleod in the sea side storm the body a little, whether detective pretty cute Jeff patents and it's a book. Darwins Black Box were agenda Bethany at the base, Elam the dot base that element gmail that com? If you want any of the floor to sell camel she sent us, we can hear we recommend them banned our more from both of us just every day and can't name ring a bell

he sent us the pint of climbing the elder ill. Yes, thank again, its white rings about very top notch. Human being, I think we met a man seemed to scatter shoved. Yes thank Liza, yet the famous world renowned, plenty overbear, yes, which finally try to deliver it is dealing Thank you very much. Everybody we have more. If you didn't hear your name hang tight, we ve got probably a couple more episodes worth of administrative details. I tried or Thanksgiving as well calling it now and then time you can get in touch with us. If you want a treat to us it s, why escape? I guess you can join us on Facebook that comets Facebook that counts less division. Since an email to stop package that has the force that come and as always home on the web stuff. You should know doc.

For more on this and thousands of other topics how stuff works out com. An investigative journalist, Avery Stevens, is approach by fixer for the rich and famous was ready to hand over his client secrets. She thinks she's had a journalistic jackpot for when her sources killed every finds herself at the centre of a criminal conspiracy and soon murdered herself can you saw of every death was part of a cover up inspired by true crimes solve as the world first interactive murder, mystery podcast, the pits you as the lead, detect to begin. Your investigation had to the Iheart Radio podcast wherever you got your podcast one crime for suspects,

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