From your times are micro about this. Yesterday today on is warning that it may resuming production on its nuclear programme. Reviving a crisis that had been he by the signing of the iranian nuclear issue for years how one man with in the U S government may have intentionally brought us To this point, it's mine, May thirteen more clamour, tell me how got to this point in the relationship between the: U S and IRAN, while Michael the store We really starts almost actually year ago. Today. I want to update the world on our efforts to prevent, ran from acquiring a nuclear weapon when president from

finally makes good on a pledge he had made during the twenty sixteen campaign. I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the IRAN's nuclear deal. All the IRAN. Nuclear deal was signed between IRAN on one side, the United States and three European Countries- Britain, France and Germany- and the idea behind the deal was in return for deferring. Whatever nuclear ambitions it had, IRAN was went to be released from these very onerous sanctions that the? U S, the international community had imposed on it and as well I was gonna- be able to build up the rest of its economy, even while accepting that its nuclear programme was going to be hindered for this period of time, roughly fifteen to twenty years tonight. The breaking it is a major shake up at the White House moments ago. We are just learning at the same time that President Trump is making good on this campaign problem

to hold the United States out of this deal. You have a new personality and new figure entering the White House. National security adviser Hr Mc Master is gone president from dismisses his former national security adviser general, a charming master and mcmasters replaced a man named John Bolton and what is significant about these two. Pulling on the IRAN deal and appointing John Bonham happening at the same time roughly well. For one thing, it puts IRAN on a collision course with the United States. You have the jeopardizing of this deal, which itself had. Solved more than a decade of confrontation between IRAN and the West. The IRAN deal was, in fact, the worst diplomatic debacle in american history, the importance of John Boltons arrival is that now you have an official in the middle of the policy. Making mix who has perhaps the

artists line record towards IRAN. Of any senior figure in the main stream foreign policy community if you cross US Our allies are our partners, you our citizens. If you continue to lie, cheat and deceive yes, there will indeed be held a pit and John Bull incomes at IRAN from a very different place. Then Donald Trump they differ is really what the ultimate objective is for Trump willing to sit down and talk to the existing leadership in pursuit of a better deal. If the president has said that, since really beginning in the twenty sixteen campaign that he's open to negotiating with leaders like real hottie, like with Kim on to sit down with them. The the Iranians have use negotiations in the path just the way for John Bolton, something much more fundamental here,

wants to install new democratic leaders in that country. He wants regime change. We should provide material financial support to the opposition if they desired. We should work with the intense in services from other countries that saudi Israel to provide more pressure, there's a lot we can do and we should do it. Our goal should be regime change in IRAN, so regime change as a concept has been part of american foreign policy, since World WAR to the. U S has always debated the wisdom of trying to take out a roll back enemy or adversarial governments. But what

happened in the last fifteen years. Is the phrase regime change became identified with the Iraq war, a war that was far more costly, far longer far more trouble prone, then the Bush administration ever hoped, and I think ever since that experience in those difficult days, the idea of regime change has simply become toxic to a large portion of the foreign policy community, but also the political class, both Republican and Democrat, when people say the words regime change people think about Iraq. Hence no one wants to say those words, and so the combination of the shepherd rising of the deal and John Bolton is a very combustible and what is bones argument for this focus on regime change in IRAN Boltons argument is that the iranian regime is the world's large

this financing of international terrorism, the world's largest state sponsored terrorism. It continues to pursue ballistic missiles, a potential nuclear proliferate or on a grand scale, the only real purpose of which is to deliver nuclear weapons when they get that capability. A malign influence in the region for me King Unwrast, fine, sing militant groups in Syria and Yemen. There's no doubt this regime is a threat in the region globally, a country that is bent on the destruction of the state of Israel the great american ally. So he really believes that much of the ills that afflict the Middle EAST, can be laid at Tehran's doorstep. The terror regime, is the central problem in the Middle EAST and that hand The only answer the only way to bring about

on back into the community of civilized nations, is to affect a change in leadership. So basically people so terrible that they can possibly be trusted to negotiate a nuclear deal. Yes, and how does Bolton begin to set that goal in motion at the stroke of midnight? The euro we'll reimpose stiff economic sanctions on IRAN's? Well, the first thing he does. Is he re imposes the sanctions that had been lifting as a consequence of the deal, the sanctions target, IRAN's gourd and meadow industries, its auto sector, and restrict or ran from using? U S dollars in financial transactions and his gun. Here is to squeeze the vice around the iranian economy, to raise the pain threshold for the iranian government, so that, in effect, there were forced to knock calendar to come back to the table to

acknowledge that they willing to swallow a less advantageous deal, and I think we ve already seen the consequences in IRAN the Rio, the currencies decline by seventy percent. Since the sanctions inflation has quadrupled the country is in recession. I think this is going to cut into a runs ability to continue their nuclear programme. The finance terrorism and to engage in military activity around the Middle EAST and to the goal here is to make the iranian government so frustrated with the situation that they just two or three and walk away from the entire nuclear deal. That's exactly right, but the Iranian do something unexpected. Rather than pull out of the deal themselves. They decide to stay in it and they do that. For a couple of reasons. One is that the european signatories of the Deal- Britain, France and germany-

all pledged to stay in the deal, so the iranian hope that, even if their cut off from all contact with the? U S economy, they can continue to do some level of trading with the Europeans. And Secondly, they make this calculation that Donald Trump as a one term, president that, if they simply wait him out, perhaps he will be replaced by a friendlier successor. Perhaps another Democrat most Democrats around the record is saying they would reigns, eight, the IRAN Nuclear Deal, so there is this belief in Tehran and its encouraged by the way, by both european officials and by some people here in the United States, that they should sit tight, dont rip up the he'll and see if they can wait out Donald Trump So, once IRAN has decided to basically wait out the Trump presidency, how does the Trump Administration worse

and what is clearly an act of defiance, Byron. Well, what the Trump administration does publicly is it imposes enormous pressure on the Europeans to fall in line. Any nation that helps ran in its quest for nuclear weapons could also be strongly sanctioned by the United States, It's too start cutting off links to the iranian government. There is the german manufacturers seamounts, the danish shipping company mask the french car makers, Ps Air, the french Energy Giants total. All of these companies have decided to either scaled down or completely pull out of IRAN from fear of a U s: sanctions. So that's the public side of what the the administration is doing, but privately John Bolton is really building up his IRAN, cod re within the National Security Council and he's doing so by bringing in these extremely hard line figures who are experts in sanction strategy and

is beginning to lay in place the pieces for sort of the next phase of the pressure campaign good morning make an important foreign policy aspect concerning this Mc Republic of IRAN and among the things that he begins, explore and laying the groundwork for. I am announcing our attempt to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Corp orgasm reading the Islamic Revolutionary Guard CORE, which is this sort of military wing of the iranian leadership debt, igniting the iron gc as a foreign tourists organization as a foreign terrorist organisation. This is the first time loss in turn has formally labelled and arm of another country's military. As a terrorist group, the Trump Administration says the iranian force actively participates in finances. Promotes terrorism as a tool of state craft and what would be the significance of that in terms

of bombs ultimate goal here. Well, going after the arduous see not only hinders IRAN's ability to project malign info once around the region. It also hit at a very important source of revenue for politically and acted leaders in IRAN. The IPCC is, in fact the vehicle by which lot of IRAN's leadership enriches themselves so going after that group both hurts IRAN domestically and hurts its ability to operate internationally Bolton all begins, laying the groundwork for an even more draconian set of sanctions on IRAN's oil industry. Up until this point, the? U S, had allowed countries, some of whom are you s, allies and are very dependent on a rainy and oil to continue to I from IRAN for some temporary period of time

but what happens now is that the administration revokes, those waivers eight countries will be affected. It basically says to all of these countries: China, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Greece, India in italy- that no country that wants to avoid itself being black listed by the United States can continue to buy oil from IRAN, neither have to cooperate or face sanctions. Hers The effect of this step is truly devastating to the iranian oil industry because it was kind of, limping along continuing to export a certain. Olive oil to these countries that were operating under waivers. But once these waivers are gone true, All of IRAN's customers are basically put in a position of saying we cannot by oil from you anymore and because oil is Those central Tehran's economy, that is the economic equivalent of describe strangling up

really is the economic lifeline of the iranian economy, and cutting off a hundred percent just has a truly devastating effect its currency. The Rio has already lost two thirds of its value against the dollar. Since the year began, the I am said, the rain. Economy would shrink six percent this year, and that was before they latest. U S moves. Since our level of pressure. This is a tightening of the economic vice like anything the Iranian have so far experienced. But how exactly does it get to boltons goal of regime change? Well, one school of is that if you reduce IRAN's oil exports to zero, you crater its currency, you tank, it's a con an you throw millions of iranian people into poverty. You could in fact spark that kind of uprising that people like John Bolton, have been waiting for,

for a quarter century, an uprising that would actually toppled the regime from inside. So the ideas that use These are on hard enough that the regular people of IRAN rise up and out the regime, which is a little bit different than I think how most people think of regime change. Few member Iraq regime change was the? U S invading here. It's making the people in that country so miserable in a way that they decide to take out their own leaders and its driven by a cow We have different things. One is that, unlike Iraq, in aiding IRAN would be a monumentally, difficult undertaking, so the Ocean of an american invasion of IRAN is really not on the table this is more about? Can we make life miserable enough that we can actually bring about regime change from internally the degree that the administration is behind Bolton strategy, right now it seems it is. Are

signs that is actually work and at the iranian regime is starting to collapse from within, as it's supposed to. I think the short answer to that. No, there is no question that these sanctions have read. They heard the reigning economy have devastated its oil exports, but in the main, this is a regime that seems as firmly entrenched as ever and its also regime that is still able to exert influence around the region. It continues to be active in Lebanon. It continues to be in Syria. It continues. Have a role to play in Yemen. So the answer that is no neither internally nor in neighbourhood, is their evidence that the Trump Administration is really Jeopardizing the survival of the regime, and yet this week we ve got some breaking news just coming across the wire out of the Middle EAST,

finally did see some signs that IRAN is growing impatient one year to the day after President Trump withdrew, the United States from the landmark IRAN, nuclear agreement iranian President Hassan- He says he has sent letters to the remaining signatories of the deal saying neurons. As an Hassan Romani announced that IRAN would be in to pull away in a modest way from parts of the iranian Nuclear deal as in dumb for dirty maquinna him again, he sat he d not only Mama trap me. They would begin some very small scale enrichment of new. Your material other not violating the deal in any dramatic fashion, but there beginning to peel away from the edges of the deal, and perhaps more significantly there putting the Europeans in a box around says. Other countries have two months to implement their commitments to the deal or IRAN will quote, reduce its

I still remember the Europeans pledged to stay in the deal they might lead to continue to give IRAN the benefits of the deal. Even if the United States pulled out, an essentially what the arabian government said. The Europeans this week. As you have a certain period of time to show us that we are to get these economic benefits, and if you can't show us, then we're gonna pull out of the deal in a much more wholesale fashion. Iranian president says the country will start enriching uranium again in sixty days as unless Europe, Russia and China can help IRAN counter. U S: sanctions on its oil sales, so, in effect, what they ve done they put the Europeans in the middle of their evolving battle with the United States. And kind of encourage them to choose between IRAN and the? U S and it's a very difficult,

choice, so, on the one hand, the Europeans can define President Trump and say we're going to continue to do business with the Iranians, in which case the president could theoretically say fine I'm going to sanction you. On the other hand, if the European say to the Iranians, we can afford to defy the United States Iran could say in that case we have a pretext, a reasonable case for leaving the steel entirely, which is something, of course the Europeans have been desperately trying to avoid. So is this a sign that owns plan is working or is it a sign that may be it backfired well, it depends on your perspective, from the perspective of someone who wants to keep IRAN's nuclear power grand bottled up. It has totally backfired from the perspective of someone who is hungry for a confrontation with IRAN. It actually provides you with more

of a rationale Morty mean well in the sense that there now in breach of the agreement, beforehand. The United States was imposing all this pressure on IRAN, Without really having the legal high ground, because the Iranians were complying with the terms of the deal The american argument was it's a terrible deal now. How the Arabians are in breach of the deal. So it actually gives more of a pretext more of a case for the trumpet minister nation to tighten the vice on the Iranians, so If you are somebody who favours regime change, not just going back to the negotiating table, this is a reasonably good place to be. It's a better place to be because now you're dealing with a regime that has to some extent gone. Rogue arrest that sign to deal with the internet. Community.

Want a lot of credit in Europe for sticking to the terms of that deal which won a lot of credit at the United Nations. For sticking with the terms that deal will now suddenly, the Iranians are also M reach. So I think it does improve your position if your goal is conflict rather than some kind of diplomatic resolution, if you're jumble, if you're, in other words John Bolton, work is one way to think about this. That jumble would never have signed the IRAN deal in the first place, as Obama did so he's basically trying to get us I back where we were before that deal with side, which is IRAN developing a nuclear programme. But this too Rather than solve it through a nuclear deal, he wants to solve it another way. Regime change. I think that's right, because I think that

John Boltons argument is the way to forever guarantee that IRAN does Develop a nuclear weapon is not to put on these complicated timelines that expire at some point in the future, but to fundamentally change the character of the government in IRAN. So you just don't have to worry about this nuclear threat at all and trying to achieve It through arrangements through complicated treaties is simply never gonna work because of the nature of the leadership you're dealing with better to start off with a new leadership, perhaps a leadership that has no nuclear ambitions at all and just change the equation in a more fundamental way. Some work are we still on a collision course with IRAN. I'd say the more accurate way to put it is we're back on a collision course. We had been on a collision course with IRAN for much of the last decade, and there was this brief period.

While the deal was in place where one could say that there was an understanding, but were now back in a very familiar dynamic. We continue to ratchet up the pressure. We see acts uranium defiance and is very uncertain how the story plays out mark. Thank you very much. Thank you. Michael leave. Last week, the Trump Administration announced a new round of sanctions. Iranian steel, aluminium, copper and I are aimed at further squeezing its economy. At the same, the? U S said it would build up its military presence around IRAN, including an anti aircraft defence system, be fifty two bombers and a worship. The military movements are based on you

intelligence, suggesting that IRAN's government may try to provoke a conflict with the? U S, to cement its hold on power as the economic tool of. U S, sanctions continues to grow, we'll be right back. We all shop on mine, a lot and finding promo code. That work is uneasy unless you use honey. The free browser extension that scans the internet for the best promo codes and automatically adds its your card just add. Honey shop, like normal click, apply, coupons and watch the prices drop, its one hundred percent free and installs in just a few seconds plus its now part of the our family get honey for free, it join honeyed outcome, Slash daily, that's, join honey, dot, com slashed daily use. What else you mean bringing new powers

has only limited powers it doesn't even for there is, the law is the first song is actually the elected European Commission that comes up with those laws which are then fleshed out by different structure. The times reports that Russia appears to be engaging in a widespread campaign of misinformation aimed at influencing upcoming elections for the European Parliament, the legislative branch of the European Union, those elections scheduled fully met, feature populous candidates who, if elected, would be hostile to the EU and sympathetic to Russia. The russian campaign involves promoting- rightly in ITALY and Germany, and raising questions on tv networks like Russia. Today about the legitimacy. Of the European Parliament itself. The real question is:

Matter, who you vote for, because, in reality, even a seismic shake up at any p level, we don't have any impact on the commission nor the council, where it seems the power base, lies the activity is the latest saw that, despite indictments sanctions and expulsions, Russia remain committed to weakening western institution by deepening political divisions. That's it for the day I Michael about seed Hi, I'm Kristen minds are, and I'm the co host of innovation uncovered a new podcast. The world changing in real time, often in ways we don't notice an can't protect innovation. And covered explores the breakthroughs that our driving our culture now from how we play to what we consume to how we can act more about the ideas that are reshaping our reality in extraordinary way is innovation,

uncovered is upon cast from invest, go cute. You too, and t brand at the New York Times, listened today in basque or distributors, ink