From New York Times. I'm likeable borrow this is a daily today, the economy needs and the public wants it. So why can't Congress and the White House reach a deal on a new stimulus package? My colleague, Jim dangerously, on the policy of pandemic relief. It's Tuesday October. Thirteen. Jim, the last time you were on the show Congress had just passed, Norma economically package. The cares act and you walk just through that. and it was a historic piece of legislation, because he was this giant bipartisan package that offered loans to small businesses bailouts for major industry.

Like the airlines, six hundred dollars in weekly federal payments to those who had lost their jobs. There was a moratorium on afflictions. It felt like government functioning at its best and why is that feel like a really long time ago and. This is what it was a really long time ago, it's an eternity in the scope of this crisis and in particular its an eternity in the politics of stimulus, but I think it's really important note that it worked the stimulus bill the past in the spring helped the United States recover faster than a lot of other economies. That did not do As much spending to try to prop up demand, but that help is running out and in many cases has run out- and there is no sign of more help coming on the horizon from Congress. What happened to all that money? Is it actually gone

yeah. A lot of it is gone. A lot of it was spent, particularly direct aid to people to workers on unemployment. That money through July gave Additional unemployment benefits every week that they were unemployed. Direct checks were sent to individuals and households, and small businesses are burned quickly through the first allocation of money. In your paycheck protection program that no funding programme so essentially the aid to people and small businesses that was in that first package of bills back in the spring is gone. So this What has happened to the american economy since that cares? Act was passed. You said that it worked, but is, of course, one of the money and and run out of steam. So we're has that left the economy. It left

economy in need of another jolt of help from Congress. What we see now is a recovery that looks really great in May and June when we're adding back millions of jobs has slowed flowed over the summer and its low dramatically in the fall, so fewer small businesses are reopening and fat one out of every seven small businesses in the country is closed for good. According to one estimate, a bunch of big companies that took aid like airlines, now, starting to lay people off or announced, lay offs if they don't get other support from the government and meanwhile state and local governments which have been totally

hammered by the lack of tax revenues, because there's just not economic growth happening with it. They had forecast near starting to lay off public servants. Teachers, firefighters ran the numbers, look grim for that in the future. The possible lay offs that people are warning of is large and people who were able to sustain their spending with that additional unemployment benefits. The number show that they did. They spent that they saved it really kept the economy humming, but now they ve run out, and the estimates are that as soon as this month or as late as does number. The unemployed, people who had those benefits will run through their savings. They still don't have jobs because we are still ten million jobs, shy of where we were before the procession head, and so in all of this you have a clamour really from the american public, three quarters of Americans in Serbia. they say they want another large stimulus bill to mitigate this economic. message at a time when the federal government can borrow money for almost nothing, and so

How do we arrive at this place, Jim, where economic factors, but you just described public opinion- and I guess kind of economic common sense all point to the need for where a new Cares act, and yet months and months and months have passed and Congress has not taken any action. Will the divisions start showing up fairly quickly after the initial quick, coming together in Congress to pass the first bill? And a couple a little follow, ups for small business in May, the house, which is controlled by democratic, He are more than three trillion dollar stimulus bill and Republicans immediately panic and, very importantly, say that they are not going to pass their own version of a bill. Right away in the Senate, they're gonna wait and see how the economy does given the first round of stimulus and also the fact that a bunch of state and local governments are lifting restrictions on economic active,

there is real thought among Republicans in some conservative economists that what was really holding back, the economy was these restrictions are put in place and then we see over the summer. Is that that's not really true that those restrictions are left it and jobs do keep coming back, but not at the same pace that they were going back in May and June, and so there starts to be adopting realisation that hey a lot of Americans are still unemployed. In particular, and there's this deadline at the end of July, where they're gonna have to basically see a huge caught in their benefits, their checks, earnings an enormously. If we don't do something, and so some time in July, negotiations start again and Trump Administration led by trajectories determination and Democrats and Republicans income start talking about well, what would a possible compromise package? Look like

some immediate sticking points and in what are those sticking points. Others too big ones in this point of a negotiation. The real sticking point at this point is the six hundred dollar weekly check. The first is the unemployment benefit and what size it should be. In July I go to the table with the young commitment to the six hundred dollars. Democrats really want to keep it at six hundred listen, they're, getting a lot of pressure from their supporters to hold the line and six hundred dollars. Republicans our hearing from back home from small businesses from this such businesses and large businesses. Republicans are getting a lot of pressure from business and from conservative economists to end the benefit entirely or or only do a small one. It's tough sometimes to get people to come back to work and its understandable. They say it's keeping people going back to work, you're getting paid this extra money and you're not gonna, go take a job of its offered boy. Don't want someone to have higher benefits than what someone can vote working right, the army,

being that, basically, people are being paid more than they would get in their actual job before the pandemic bright, exactly which, which is both true. People were making when there, but also it turns out from some research that a bunch of economists have done since then was not really a very big impediment people returning to work so that the first thing is the unemployment benefits. The second thing we now democratic push for billions for state and local governments. Democrats want a lot of money to help shore up big budget shortfalls. Do states facing massive deficits or because of the pandemic. James, like ours, New York, but also Texas in Florida and other places that are experiencing shortfalls Republicans have enabled this already by this point: equal blue state. They allowed blue states that have run their states into the ground because, if decades of democratic policies, and republican activists groups are warning republican senators.

Not one dime for those fat cats. Democrats, you know on the coast, but it's also true that even states like South Dakota with a republican governor was asking lawmakers to send more money and relieved because out the Quotas Academy had taken a I hit from the virus, and so there was pressure from red state governors. It just wasn't enough to overcome for a lot of centre of applicants. Particular this idea of a blue state bail out, and so those emerge as that sort of two of the really big sticking points. So the unemployment benefits expire at the end of July and that expiration comes and goes, and we still don't have a deal and now we enter early August and were staring down what was supposed to be the August recess for senators very important, particularly for some Republicans, who are up for real action.

in states like Arizona, Colorado, the need to get back and campaign and the exploitation of been that might force a deal, but it doesn't happen again, and so the next big thing that shakes of these negotiations is that President Trump decides he's gonna do something on his own. Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States, Donald J Tromp, the president, ghost

bed. Mr New Jersey, thank you very much. Everybody thank you and makes a big shell of announcing some executive orders that he says are going to reinvigorate the economy. Democrats are obstructing all of it. Therefore, I'm taking executive action, we ve had it and we're going to save american jobs and provide relief to the american workers that I'll be signing these bills in a very short period of time. They had some problems and the big problem is the way that the Constitution Davies up responsibilities between branches of governments, Trump wants to cut taxes, and he wants to spend more money and Congress has to do both. Those things. First, one is on providing a payroll tax holiday to America, journeying less than one hundred thousand dollars per year, he tries to do. What is he says, is a payroll tax cuts but isn't really interest dissolves into a joke? No companies actually follow through with the scheme that here

set up. Surely no large companies follow through with it. The third action I'm taking today will also provide additional support for Americans who are unemployed and then out of thin air. He tries to create his own supplemental unemployment benefit. For this reason, I'm taking action to provide an additional. Or an extra four hundred dollars per week, it expanded benefits four hundred dollars. You re purposes a bunch of money for federal, disastrous system to create a several hundred dollars a week benefit member states that apply but state to put up some of their own money to make the benefit full strength and there's a time limit on it. And it turns out that even the states that apply run out of money after only a few weeks, and so it is no work to a permanent solution for the problem of unemployed people, not having anywhere close to the benefits that they had had before. So none of

It actually ends up stimulating the economy, and no one really thought at the time that it would. But what it does do is in rage. Democrats who feel like Trump is trying to bypass them in the process, and it gives a little more cover to the Republicans who didn't want to spend any more money in the first place and now can say see the president has acted. We don't need to buy MID August. It's Turning to look like. Maybe there won't be another stimulus bill and by Labour day that looks increasingly likely and negotiations continue, but the hopes behind them are really starting to fade. And meanwhile the Pull

the Golan centipedes underlying all this are really starting to change. For Democrats, Republicans and Trump we'll be right back today takes new ways of working new measures towards health and safety, flexible terms for how you work spaces designed with your purpose. It takes a we work office to take your business where you want it to be. We work that's how tomorrow works visit, we work dot com slashed tomorrow, Jim another. We are caught up Irene. genuinely puzzled by what's in it, for both sides to not act, not reach a deal on behalf of this ailing economy. So, let's start with

The Republicans. What is there a motivation for doing nothing in this model of the first and biggest incentive is ideological. Republicans have, of course, strain of fiscal conservatism believes that government spending is rarely if ever the answer to economic problems, you saw that sort of set aside in the spring right when we were in a true crisis, but now, in the midst of the recovery that is coming back, A lot of republicans are citing that and say. You know the House Democrats want a bunch of things we think would heard the economy they want to spend too much money. So that's the story, but then you have to layer. Politics on that and the politics here are not stray

forward. It is not as if every Senate Republican is just trying to do whatever they can right now to stimulate the economy between August and the election when President Trump is up for real action, which you might normally expect them to do, President's do better when the economy is doing better and their running for real action, but instead it what you see or that a lot of Senate Republicans or looking past the twenty twenty election there looking to twenty twenty two twenty twenty four, when they are either gonna, be up for real action and conservative states where their biggest concern might be a primary opponents. Who- and you can almost hear the attack ads in your head- could say: TED crews voted with. And see policy to bail out blue states? Send a real conservative to the said it. So the long term view for a public and senator is that this is a political nightmare, signing onto a giant spending vote. But I wonder

how they way that against the needs of their district and voters who are unemployed, and waiting for benefit? Small businesses that now more loans and are known clamouring for some sort of a spending bill, Republicans or hearing they hearing all the time from my business owners and from people in their states and their districts. We do need help and the republican response is often you know. We want to help you I'm trying to get you targeted relief. That's Ellen Republicans talk about it, but the darn Democrats are blocking that because they are insisting on all this other stuff, all this pork, they call it bill we're not going to spend all that money. You know how bad it is to waste taxpayers money that the other thing that's happening is that their remit ring that they have constituents who basically agree with view in a primary election, in particular that government spending on a wide scale is not a good thing to do, and so

They are not going to be penalised by prime voters in their states are districts for blocking another big spending. If anything, they'll be rewarded for it. So kind of perversely, Senate Republicans have this political incentive to keep doing nothing for their own political survival, even if it may be bad for some of their constituents and clearly not so great for their president. Well, I think we can now talk about the incentives without bringing in what's happening with the president's pull them some, which are not good in August, in moving forward, you still trails Joe Biden by a lot and Republicans in the Senate and the house were starting

think about, he really could lose and if he loses the gut assert their own political futures to think about and what is a post Trump Republican Party look like, which can very much include a return to very strict fiscal conservatism, and so they want to have their fiscal conservative credentials in order in the event that they are running in a crowded twenty twenty four presidential primary and that suddenly is back in the top of the minds of republican voters as a thing they want fiscal purity so of your TED crews. Ran Paul or any of the numerous other republican senators thinking. we're running for president, you want to have impeccable fiscal credentials for that potential. Primary contest Ok, you're very clearly laid out why republicans dont have any motivation to act right now? What about the dead?

This would seem a little more straightforward for Democrats. Their constituency help just like Republicans and stimulus. A giant package of spending is generally in keeping Idia logically with a democratic view of the government's war? So why not be very willing to do a deal with Republicans what they want to deal and they keep negotiating toward a deal all summer? They also are under pressure to

a good deal from parts of their party coming down to something like president trumps number four hundred dollars a week now, I'd like to see Democrat, say no eight point four percent unemployment and we can do that from people like Jason firm in the former chief economist for President Obama, who is saying rational person, would look at this report's a stimulus was working. We still have a problem, we need more of it. We can compromise. You can always come back later and get more you should not wait until February, but a lot of Democrats, our thinking about waiting till later. They are thinking we might be to get a better deal from Joe Biden if he wins than what trumps offering us now, we can get more money for state and local level. We can get more money for unemployed workers. We can help businesses we're on our terms, and so that is changing their calculus is well and underpinning. All of this is their thought that present Trump needs this more than they do politically and

No, they are not being punished by voters for not cutting a deal, and so they will wait for trumped to come to them on their terms. So the Democrats calculation is that they're gonna get a deal on their terms are closer to their terms, If they don't. They are willing to deprive the country of this stimulus for months in the hope that Trump

MRS Biden winds and they get exactly the deal that they want. That's a pretty high stakes gamble. It is a risk- and it's probably not going to work, but it might and if it does- and we are seeing the seeds of it right now in the last few days as President Trump moves towards the Democrats. What do you mean consider the events of the last week? This is an important part of this Multi Party tweet. At present, what out he, the president, took the twitter as he says that I have instructed my representative to stop negotiating until after the election, when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major stimulus bill it focuses on hardworking Americans and small businesses and eliminate everything was done. I just keep coming back to this point. I don't understand the political calculate markets are falling and he got really nervous about that. I'm telling you something! I don't love anybody else, because maybe it helps or maybe it hurts negotiations and he told his aids to go back to

table and make an even bigger offered. Democrats. I would like to see a bigger package sectarian ourselves up to one point: eight trillion, so the bid may offer is narrowing somewhat. The two sides and when they didn't take that he would actually go beyond what some of the democratic numbers are had aids on the Sunday talk shows this weekend raised the possibility of an even higher offers Democrats spending more money than even the Democrats themselves had proposed. So it looks like he's moving toward their position And we assume that is because it is twenty something days until the election yeah. He really was a deal. He is, I think, very nervous about looking a week in the eyes of the stock market and looking like a guy who can't make a deal, but he has this really difficult

Neil the Thread witches Senate Republicans are not at all on board, with this idea of spending even more money to make an agreement. My in based on everything that you have set of his point. It's hard to see a Senate controlled by Republicans adopting that generous version of this legislation. So here's the scenario where a deal with tat and a lot of money- and mostly Democrats can pass him would have to happen, is first, the deal is dropped, Trump Support, said House, Democrats, vote and pass the bill. Then Mitch Mcconnell, the Senate Majority leader, would have to free up said at time, which right now is entirely consumed with tee tempted to confirm a news from court. Justice he'd have to free up time to allow a vote on a bill that probably

more than half of his carcass opposes. So he would have to let a few Republicans vote with a bunch of Democrats to pass a bill that the president was but which most of Mitch Bacchanals carcass not one at a time when Miss Mcconnell wants to be using the Senate floor for other business. So it's a very, very tricky scenario to actually see coming to pass and one that you don't think will happen I am of the opinion that you cannot buy into the idea that this will happen until you have seen all of the pieces lined up perfectly if they announced a deal and there's legislative text and there's time set aside for a vote, and then they announced the votes and the president's S house

then I'll believe there's a dead until then, it all feels like political theatre, likely scene of the last several months of both sides wanting to look like they are for a deal without actually compromising to make the deal. Thinking back to him to the beginning of our conversation and the Cares act and what it represented about, what the United States government is capable of. This really does feel like the sad as possible. Vision of what government cannot do. This feels to me like how government tends to work, and, unfortunately, is the rule that proves just how extraordinary the exception was in March. Most of the time, politics is a driving force for how people conduct negotiations and big ideological differences can teach people. Apart from solving problems, I think that's the case here

in only wasn't the case in the spring, because it was such an extraordinary moment of crisis. But if we allow several more months to go without pumping more help and the economy, it is very likely. Economists warn that there's gonna be just huge damage that will compound overtime and make this recession much worse, and so I think that that is the real tragedy here is the politics: have a human tall and they normal exercise of politics can very much leave real people behind Jim. I'm curious, if, in your reporting on all this, You have ever been able to establish the financial cost of the United States Congress.

Having basically done nothing in the past six months or so is that measurable yeah? I think we can see it in large part by thinking what next year would look like this coming year. If they continue to do nothing- and there are some good research by an economist in earnings dusky at ever core who calculated that we will have four million fewer jobs next year. Without more stimulus than we would with a stimulus package like compromise one. They started talking about back in July, so huge number of jobs, yeah it's a lot and it's going to be more people losing their homes. It's going to be more people having to meet those horrible choices between

food and medicine and rent and other things, and we're not gonna, see that in real time in big headlines in the stock market, you know every day the way that we did in March with the spread of the virus. It's just going to be the slow, steady unpleasantness of economic downturn and the failure to act on that brings me back to what was almost an implicit contract between Americans in their government at the start of this crisis, Americans sort of greed to dramatically changed their lives and reduce their economic activity where they went and now they shot and even whether they could go to work. I too that we would have fewer deaths from the virus to try to slow and stop the spread in exchange the governments we're gonna help you out we're gonna Ford you across that flood of financial difficulty, and that's what that first stimulus bill was, and it had a lot of

ass, if to it, but the government now has served, dropped its end of the contract. It's not paying people additional money who can't find jobs. It's not offering direct support to small businesses who do not have the customers they used to through no fault of their own and the risk of the governments. Failure to act. That way is that you take what should have been a bunch of temporary damage from essentially the flicking, often on of an economy and instead making it permanent. You take an extraordinary recession. speed and turn it into something. It looks more and more every day, like the type of recession we have experienced in the past, which can lead to a slow recovery which can leave people out of work for months, if not years, reduce their skills, reduce their ability, Find jobs, reduce the actual employers who are out there, able to put them to work and just hurt people

businesses in a permanent way that is scoring to the economy and did not have to happen if the government had kept up its side of the contract right and if it ends up being a case in harmony, damage from this pandemic recession, it will be, as you say, that rare and really agonizing case of government deliberately put. the? U S, economy and recession, creating the problem and refusing to do its part to fix. And get Americans through, and that will have been an extraordinary abdication of the role of governments.

It will be the government refusing to finish the work that it promised to do and people will be the ones left picking up the pieces. Thank you. Thank you will be right back. For over one hundred years, southern company has been providing the resilient energy solutions, their customers and communities can on no matter what their committed to bill brighter tomorrow and improving their customers quality of life. By setting a goal. Net. Zero carbon emissions and investing in local communities learn more why southern company believes resilient people make resilience possible at

The company dot com, slash, resilience, southern company building the future of energy? Here's what else you generating good morning. Everybody, the hearing to confirm, Judge Amy bear to the spring court, will now begin. On Monday, a bitterly divided Senate Judiciary Committee began four days of confirmation, hearings for Judge Amy Coney Bearing President Troms third nominees, the Supreme Court. This is probably not about persuading each other. Unless something really dramatic happens, all Republicans will vote. Yes in all Democrats will vote no in his opening remarks. The committee's chairman, Senator Lindsey Graph, left little doubt whether.

It would be confirmed by the republican majority when asked in October, two thousand eighteen, if Republicans intended to honour their own rule, if an opening where they come up in two thousand and twenty german, Graham promised quote if an opening comes in the last year of president trumps terms and the primary process has started with wait till after the next action. The committee's Democrat, led by Senator Diane Feinstein of California, called the hearing itself a broken promise by Republicans, including Senator Grand whom Feinstein quoted in her opening steep republic and should honour this word for their promise and let the american people be heard Simply put, I believe, we should not be moving forward on this nomination, not until the Elect

and his end it and the next president has taken office. The hearings will continue this morning when senators begin questioning judge bearing about her views. That's it. I'm Michael borrow, see tomorrow. As we plan for the future see, I t provides you with the financial expertise and agility. You need to help. You bank, like your best days, are ahead. That's tomorrow. Thinking empowering you to bank, like you visit, cit dot com to get started. Member after I see