Being thankful is not something that comes to mind when migraine strike nor tech Odp, remember, Pat. Seventy five milligrams is the first and only medicine that can treat a migraine attack and prevent one as well with pain, relief in as little as sixty minutes and protection up to forty eight hours? Don't take if allergic to nurture o d t most common side effects were nausea, stomach pain and indigestion for important safety. Prescribing it Patient information visit in you are tv cedar come I'd like to but I am thankful for new tech, control of your migraines from New York Times. I'm likeable borrow This is today pooling, shows that Americans think the economy is bad. Economic data says they're wrong my coat

Ben Castle on the gap between the reality and the perception of the european economy, it's Thursday November eighteen Ban might go in the flesh, don't I think we can check out fishing. Anyone can check out here and we do the same. so good to see you in person so good to see you in person your hair. Yet this had been a pandemic experience pandemic ponytail. You know my wife actually likes. Yeah also shoot you put the word. Actually, front of itself had suggested tat. We may become minority, so I've been. I think we should explain This is a rather momentous occasion. You and I sitting here, because this is the first time since March of twenty twenty that

A guest and those to the daily have sat in studio for an interview for the shell turn was two years you are gasped. I am truly honoured. Yeah, I'm too tired to complete accident that you are the first gas you didn't like plaque this out months in advance, like the person we're gonna have on. First is: there's gotta be castle, now nine unthinkable revenue if we'd planet. Now we're truly honoured that you are the first person and it is a really happy acts in the end. I think it's incredibly fitting that We are very much still talking about the pandemic and the pandemic economy, and that is why you are here. It does seem like it fits the moment in many well yeah. Ok, so then always turn to you to explain to us in your very wise and plain spoken,

what actually happening with our economy. So, in the simplest terms, what is happening in the american economy at this very moment, so I think, to put it very simply: the economy is pretty good right now and Americans feel terrible about it, which is what we call journalism a contradiction. It's a bit of a conundrum right. So, let's pick that conundrum contradiction apart, what is the evidence that the economy is doing well? What data support that claim? So look whenever we're thinking about the economy, we ve got to say relative to what right relative to prepare endemic things are okay, relative to the worst moments of the pandemic. A year and a half ago, things look far better than any of us could have anticipate wavery gain something like eighty percent of the jobs that we lost in the pandemic thought the unemployed.

rate is down to four point, six percent people are making more money and spending more money than they ever have before, not just in the pandemic, but ever ever ever in history than ever in the history of the economy. People are seeing strong wage game by a lot of the sort of traditional measures that we use to ask how the economy is doing its coming back quickly and in doing pretty well, that's an even happier portrait of economic good news that I would have imagined so, let's zero in the second half of the contradiction you are taking place, which is that people are feeling bad about the economy you will. Is the evidence for that. Given the pretty happy sounding economy, you just described on a basic level. We asked people, so we have all of these surveys that have been going on for, in some cases, decades asking Americans how they feel about the

the University of Michigan, runs a long running survey of consumer sentiment by measure in early November, Americans feeling The economy was the worst in a decade. That means they felt worse about the economy now than they did in the worst moments of the pandemic. In the spring of twenty twenty, which is confusing, I mean we, we, unemployment rate that was close to fifteen percent. We have an economy than there was shot down that was shut down right. People felt better about the economy, then than they do now. The Gallup poll has run the survey for a long time they found sixty. Eight percent of Americans say that the economy is getting worse right now, even though seventy four percent say that it's a good time to find a quality job. So they say I can do

Good job right now, but I still think the economy is going down the to write and sixty percent. Nearly seventy percent of people thinking the economy is going down. The tubes is just an overwhelming majority of people being serve it. It's the kind of number that we don't see in a lot of four. He can't get Americans to agree on that kind of thing with any regularity. Now I do want to be clear here right. There is a strong, partisan component or sea and to some, stem. This started as a partisan phenomenon. The moment that Joe Biden took office. Confidence among Republicans, plummeted,

right, there guy had lost. So I didn't like the economy of the guy who one absolutely and confidence among Democrats rose, but the recent decline that we ve seen is bipartisan Democrats, independence, Republicans they're all saying that things have taken a turn for the worse over the last few months. Okay, so just to summarize, the people really do feel the economy is going great data, its acquiring above appalling, real, its widespread and its by parties more republican and Democrat, but now spread across both parties, so men, how do you explain why this pessimism about these

He is so pervasive when the economic data that you just laid out suggest in reality, it's quite good. Why do people feel like there being reigned upon had actually pretty sunny out? So I think there are really two reasons. The first one is inflation. We are seeing a moment right now where consumer prices are rising at their fastest rate. In more than thirty years, consumer prices were up more than six percent in October from a year earlier, and just to make clear that actually looks like.

Something which was to be a hundred dollars? It's a hundred and six dollars through money. It real money, if not as a one time, stand alone thing that huge, but if it continues overtime right that starts to have a real impact on people's lives and look. There are some things that are rising much faster gas prices are up nearly fifty percent over the last year. Now, that's partly because gas prices fell a lot in the pandemic, but still if you were paying two bucks in something for gas a year ago, you're paying three bucks and something in some cases briefly Do your four dollars in some parts of the country, that's a price that you probably pay all the time and as a price you see on the highway. Every time right, you drive down at your super aware of it car prices in, I think back in the spring we talked about how used car prices had jumped ten percent in just one month rights.

Car the cost twenty thousand dollars in April cost twenty two. thousand dollars just a month later will not occur because twenty six thousand, not while same car same car on average, would now cast substantially more price of food is up significantly price of chicken and pork are up staples that people buy time after time. You're gonna have to buy food in some form or fashion. You're gonna have to buy gas. If you want to get to work, these are things that people pay frequently they can't get out of, and they are rising by substantial amounts so introduced, as are the kind of person whose experience with inflation is making them

worse about the economy, even if their benefiting from the positive forces that you described at the start of our conversation. Yet so I think that question actually highlights a really important point, which is that we are having this conversation in the aggregate, but people who experience the economy that way or they experience it in very specific terms, rice and there are plenty of people out there- we are not doing better to imagine somebody who's got. You know, maybe some middle class family in Paris. mania got a long way to drive to work every day. Maybe the parents have gotten small raises this year, but not as much as inflation. They drive a lot they're paying more for gas everything needed or a place while the cars they had to buy that car. That suddenly costs more money. They got a couple of kids, and so there grocery bills are high and their experiencing that,

family could very well be dealing with higher prices that are rising faster than any wage growth there experiencing. They could be fighting backwards so for that family right, there's, no really in a conundrum here at all right, but then there, these other people who are experience, thing wage growth. Interestingly, right now, wages for the lowest earning workers are the ones that are rising the fastest retail workers, retail workers restaurant workers right everybody where you here, oh, we can't find workers while their raising pay right now, so those workers are seeing wage growth. That is definitely faster than inflation in a straight dollars, and since world they are doing better. Now, Then they were new answer they.

Feeling better, not necessarily right some of the psychology of inflation. You see the prices going up and you say why I got a raise this year, but am I going to get a raise next year and a prices keep going up like this, are my wages gonna keep up with that. So, even if in real dollar terms, this theoretical were talking about, has more money than they did before They are starting to experience a creeping fear that if chicken and beef and used car prices keep creeping up over time that raise gets a raised. I like this economy, has lost a culture this year, absolutely because with inflation, what you're seeing now makes you start to worry about. What's gonna happen in future, you see the prices are going up right now and you start to say well what, if that continues.

I'm gonna end up worse and all of a sudden somebody who might otherwise be pretty optimistic about the economy. Suddenly start answering that survey question. I feel pretty bad and pretty pessimistic all the way back. This podcast is supported by son and heir private client at suntan. Dare we recognise how hard you work to achieve your goals? That's why we prioritize your needs to take your vision even further, with a team of dedicated professionals at your service, Santander, private clients get a tailored offering of personalized financial guidance plus access to our most exclusive offers and talk to you. The feds Santander, private client, a step above and banking at Saint Hunter Bank taught com, slash private client, you- and I are here listening to them episode. For the same reason we like, or in my case, love listening to great stories. I had this moment with my friend Christian, if

years ago. We were talking about this amazing article. We had both red. Then it occurred to us, there's all this, tactic journalism written for the page, but what? If we could listen to it? I'm Ryan Wagner and that friends- and I we created autumn, which carry the very best stories from the world's most respected publications, so you can hear read aloud by world class narrators from the need. times to the Atlantic room. Stone to Mother Jones Bottom is how you can accept, Ian stories in a whole new way, No, the autumn app or go to Adam Dotcom, subscribe and start listening. Today, that's a! U DM dotcom! Ok, then we're back burned studio is still pretty exciting. You said, then, that there are two big reasons: for the loss of confidence in the economy, and inflation was the first. What is the second

so the second one is that nothing white seems to be working right. Now you go to the store and not all the products that you can usually get are there on the shall. Yet the shelves are sporadically bear yeah now, look This is not you walk into a store in the shells are empty. This isn't even like what we saw. The beginning of a pandemic were, like you, couldn't track down toilet paper anywhere The other day I went out to get butter for my wife to work on her wonderful pies and there are no butter at the corner store Not look, I want to go down the other corner, store and eventually attract on butter right, but I'm not used to go into the store in discovering that no letter, you know butter and Unita is larger and a place for these purposes. but that's happening all over the place or you go online to buy something and it tells you is backward for six months or you can't get the collar that you wanted. The type that you wanted

and so then you go out to eat at a restaurant and you ve got a long wait and the you know server seems frazzled end that kid in messes up your order and you ve got a bus, your own plates, righteous in a lot of different ways, the level of service and the variety of products that were used to getting are just not there right now, ok, so been as with inflation or difficult described, the person whose exe experience with this. Economic dysfunction is making them feel worse about the economy. Then perhaps they should, if their ban, from higher wages they, savings and so on. Let me give you a couple of examples. Take apparent the young child we're in a major daycare crisis right now, it's very difficult to find slots indeed

hair or its very expensive, when you can find one because they care is short staffed because they care is short staffed because some day care centres shut down in the pandemic, So you can imagine a family. Maybe they have perfectly good jobs, maybe they're benefiting from that child tax credit that Congress, past helping them out financially, they may be doing ok right now, but they are paying way more for day, or maybe one of the parents actually has to stay home or maybe every three weeks one of the parents gets a phone.

Call saying you gotta come pick up your kid, because there's been an exposure and were shutting down the day care for the next week and they must work and they miss work there if direct financial consequences to that right, but even aside from the direct financial consequences, it may just really not feel like things are working right now, when you can't even get stable day care, something that many people could count on before the pandemic. Ok, what's in others and think about it, not work. We're talking earlier about how restaurant workers are seeing these big wage increases for the region are getting those wage increases. Is it really hard to find workers right now, which means that pretty much every restaurant is horribly understand all of a sudden, your covering twice as many tables, usual or your covering twice as much on the line. If you're in the kitchen, then he used to you're getting yelled at my customers, you're being forced to enforce a mask mandate or a fax mandate.

your day to day. Life may be miserable and sure you're getting a couple bucks an hour more, maybe than you were before, but that may not compensate you for how much worse your day to day existence is great. More money can only make you feel a certain level of happier economy, if that economy is day in day out making. You feel worse and worse about yourself here and when we talk about this sort of contradiction right. Sometimes it can like saying, oh well, we know the economy is doing better if only stupid. Americans understood how good the economy is right now, but that's what we're talking about here right, we're talking about things being actually probably worse for those workers and those consumers right. So maybe then the word contradiction is not quite right at all: it's not

out good, dad a bad experience, it's about perceptions and reality, and if your perception is that things are bad them bad and no amount of like economic reality. Data is going to change that. That's, not a contradiction! That's people just feeling bad! I think our data can only capture so much and it can both be true, then, in dollars and sense- the people are doing better now than they were a year ago or even better than they were before the pandemic, and at the same time, that for many people, life is not great right now and those two things are not necessarily country So I want to understand the implications of this Maybe this is a naive question, but how important is it that a lot of people feel bad about the economy? Is it something that we need to be all that worried about? If

the feelings are still a little bit on tethered from the economic reality. I know that my seem like I'm now contradicting myself, because I just said: if you perception is bad, then it's bad, but maybe its temporary. So how big a deal is it? So? I think that temporary word is the critical, because the real question here is what happens over the next. six. Twelve months. If you talk to people in the Biden White House right now, they are convinced at a year from now the economy is not going to be better, be going to feel better. Workers are gonna, come back as they feel better about the public health too, relation and probably, as they run down some of the savings that they built up and have to go back to work. These supply chain shortages started work themselves out, which were already seeing some signs of

and we sort of look up in a little while and felt like this very strange moment that we all lived through, but the good stuff, the jobs and the wages. That's all still there and all the stuff that was making us your ball, the inflation and the shortages and the under staffing, dissipates dissipates, and if that's the case then- I wouldn't be sitting here in a year and saying look at how great the economy, if that's the case, if that's the case is not the case so that the risk here really is that the longer this lasts the more embedded it becomes- and this is especially true on the IMF question so we're talking before about how inflation is all about psychology will if people see a price increase one day that may be relatively easy dismay

but ass- it goes on people and businesses both started say. Will. This is just the reality we live and now so out of retailer starts to raise prices because they assume that the products that their selling or also gonna go up in price or workers start going to their bosses and saying have you see what's going on? inflation. You gotta, give me a raise, and then the company says war. It will give you a raise, but to cover that we ve got to raise prices, in which case inflation we get. This cycle feeds inflation and once that happen, and I want to clear- we do not see much evidence of that happening so far, but once that happens, it becomes a very difficult cycle to break. So that's why it matters the reason why it matters that people feel bad about the economy, and this moment is that that's psychology becomes normalized built into the economy, respond to it in

is it actually make it even worse? That's right! Ok! So if you are a policymaker right now, you and the FED you on the White House? What Do you have to make this better cause? It feels specific we were talking about is fixing inflation bright so much anyone can do about the supply chain problems and what you identified, as the biggest problem seems to inflation, so can it be solved in a relatively short period. So this is the thing that is so tricky look. The FED could control inflation, but the way that they will confirm inflation is by slowing down the economy. by raising we talk about this about interest rates, making borrowing a little more expensive. Therefore, just cut up dampening things. That's exactly right:

but at a moment when the economy is still getting back on its feet, when we still have four million fewer jobs than we did before the pandemic, the unemployment rate for black Americans right now is close to eight percent. There will be real consequences to slowing down the economy right now, but leading to people losing jobs, the unemployment rate going higher again. That is not something that the FED wants to do that they could do. They could do it, but they also want to make sure that the economy stays on its feet and their trying. walk this very narrow line to try to get inflation under control, keep the recovery on track and will see how they did so for now, with errors or bank reluctant to take that action, we're going to be living in this weird economic moment for quite some time. It sounds like.

I think we know we're gonna be dealing with a lot of these challenges into next year beyond map. I think that's where we start to have real questions. And in the meantime, we are all going to feel perhaps not so rate about the economy, perhaps worse than we should on paper, but I think the lesson of this interview ban is that when it comes to the economy, the way we feel as everything the where we feel as everything or I feel and if he was over- and I want to thank you for being our inaugural returned office in urban- it's been great, being cooped up in a small patent office with you again, Michael. Yes, a small patent office with NAFTA putsch ventilation. I really appreciate it thanks for having me So finally, I guess that's it. I guess the worst part of this office,

and after walk you out of his studio, make small towns and mortgage lending. That's right. Ok, bye, guys, I'm gonna walk me now to make small talk with a guy. We'll be right back test. The season to shop online forgiveness level, which can make you more vulnerable. When you give up info and privacy, you might give up a little safety to Norton. Three sixty with life cops keep your digital world Mary and bright with device security of European for wifi, privacy and identity theft, protection, no one, prevent all identities after monitor all transactions, but everyone can opt in to cyber safety join now and save twenty five percent, or more of your first year at Norton dot com slash daily. Here's what else he need eternity ever say I

has now, in my opinion, to ensure the highest have generated on Wednesday. The hosts of repression narrowly voted to reprimand. A republican member of the body congressmen poker sort of Arizona and Strip him of it Committee assignments for posting an animated video depicting him killing a democratic colleague Congresswoman, Alexandria, Cassio quarters and salt in President Biden, as leaders in this country, when we incite violence with depictions against our colleagues that trickled down into violence in this country- and that is where we must draw the line independent of party, identity or belief, Democrats, including okay,

Your Cortez said they felt obligated to speak out against threats that could once again inspire the kind of violence that occurred on January six, when supporters of President Trump stormed the: U S, capital. we can that a member of our community here would wish to repeat the violence of that dark day. That deadly day house Republicans all. But two of whom voted against the punishment called the vote. A partisan attempt to silence one of their own for democratic vote isn't about a video about control, that's the one and only thing, Democrats or interested in not condemning violence, not protecting the institution, not decorum or decency. Just control, tidies This was produced by Rachel question Diana Win and Luke Vanderpool. It was edited by LISA.

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