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Where We Stand on the Pandemic

2020-08-25

In the U.S., emergency-use authorization has been granted for convalescent plasma, the efficacy of which is yet to be robustly tested. For some, this echoes the situation with hydroxychloroquine and the government’s subsequent U-turn on its rollout.

Meanwhile, America’s infection rate appears to be flattening out — but at tens of thousands of cases per day. This stands in stark contrast to China, where daily cases are under 40.

Overseas, a Hong Kong resident has been reinfected with the virus, the first recorded instance of a second bout. And Russia and China have begun distributing vaccines, sidestepping Phase 3 safety trials to the incredulity of immunologists and vaccine executives.

We check back in with Donald G. McNeil Jr. on the coronavirus and the impact of these developments.

Guest: Donald G. McNeil Jr., a science and health reporter for The New York Times

For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily

Background reading:

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
From a New York Times. Unlike a bar, this is a deal today. My colleague Donald Cheap, Macneil, Junior on four new developments in the treatment and understanding of the corona virus. It's Tuesday August twenty fifth, don't we wanted to check back in with you, because the summer is drawing to a close, and there have been a few major developments in the pandemic that we wanted to better understand by talking to you are resident expert on the krona virus and the first development involves a new treatment in the? U S so tells him up
Thank you very much good to see. You hope you so just in time for the republican convention, the Food and Drug Administration director, on the podium with his boss of the head of a judge. S and his boss, the President United States, today, I am pleased to make a choice the historic announcement in our battle against the giant of ours that will save countless lives gave does a youth authorization, a powerful term emergency use authorization for a trip and known as convalescent plasma to a therapy called convalescent plasma busy if they are really stepped up, and especially over the last few days in getting this done. The results have been incredible and I think you see the results even go up very substantially, so we appreciate it and maybe an end,
what is convalescent. Plasma convalescent plasma is the the serum from blood that's taken from people who were convalescing go recovering from having had covered you draw out about it their blood. You spin it down to take off the red blood cells in white blood cells, and then you keep the serum that contains a lot of things, including the antibodies. I probation admit this, but I used to sell plasma when I was in college. I D, whose plasma did you saw mine how we five dollars for the first donation, awake fifteen dollars for the second, I paid my rent for parliament. I haven't college that way and just declare who you selling a to produce. We not like somebody off the street nano to a tool back in, and why would anyone pay for your applause, more anyone else's plus or for that matter? What is so special about blood plasma it contains you're, anti bodies and antibodies is whether they need to kill the virus. As
going through the garden, and so this is now being applied took over nineteen. Yes, people who have had covered and are immune to it are in very high demand for their plasma, which has antibodies in it, which is what the President and the FDA trees for emergency youth authorization. This weekend and today I once again urge all Americans who have recovered from the virus to go to corona virus that Gov and sign up and down a plausible today place, and what was the evidence that the trumpet ministrations cited in granting this emergency youth authorization for blood plasma? There is a program to distribute plasma,
and analyze. The results run by the Mayo Clinic and they are aiming to give the plasma out to seventy thousand patients and see how they do, and the result was that people got plasma did not do better across the board. But if you splice out sub group of people who were under eighty years old hospitalized, but not ventilators were given a high dose of plasma, not a low or medium those and were given it within three days of diagnosis. Those people did better and better was defined as they seem to have a thirty five percent lower chain. Of dying, so a narrow slice of
Overall group of people who got this blood plasma did thirty five percent better, and that was the basis for this emergency authorization. Yes, but some doctors and exports are happy with the way this is done because they would want to know a lot more things, even in the context of this trial, they would like to know what other treatments those patients got. Just in case they got something like. The still rights that we already know, save people or their under severe that we already know salespeople and really what they like see as a real randomize clinical trial bone, in which half the people got. Plasma and the other half of the people got placebo, and neither the doctors nor the patient knew who was getting, which right does that. That's really the only way in order to prove something really works. So why not undertake such a clinical trial? Now the twenty five treason
Prescott would love to. The problem is that people are so excited about. The idea of plasma cuts have been talked up that they refused to go into a clinical trial because they would get a three percent chance of getting the Pacino and once you're sick. You don't want that. You want pay, if you think it saves me give it me. That's interesting to the government's decision. The trumpet and transition to talk up blood plasma as a potential treatment, even other scientific evidence, for it might actually make it harder to do the kind of gold, and ordered clinical trial test that lots of doctors and, sadly concluding Anthony vouch. You would want to know whether or not plasma really is a serious therapy for coordinating yeah. That's exactly what happened with drastic work when it was talked up so much that people wanted it, and so it became hard to do the clinical trials in which they got a fifty percent chance of getting a placebo. They did what they heard. The president's say it's a miracle drum, so they insisted on it and, of course,
Here's a free proxy Corrigan that too was granted in emergency authorization from the tramp of innovation as a treatment. But then subsequent testing showed it was not considered effective and it was awkward safe and that emergency authorization was eventually rescinded. It was not considered effective at all and it was definitely dangerous and sober to see. Authorization was rescinded, so this potentially could be a similar situation. Yes, if I had a said that to me yesterday exactly eight that this feels like addressing Corp on all over again and then the president is hoping to be able to announce a miracle and that's the tone. The calls for the press conference on Sunday, worrying, jargon,
therapeutic breakthrough. Gonna come through this evening, and then everybody was saying I think, he's going to talk about convalescent plasma which we know about since eighteen nineties is at an end this, but this really is too bureaucratic breakthrough, because hospitals are gonna, find it easier to use plasma than they did before is enough to go to the male clinic for permission to unroll trial, but that's all, and what tony Faulty and Francis Collins uncover Lane and the others at the innate said just in the last week, or so. We don't think an emergency youth authorization should be granted and the president, basically just reverse them or overruled yeah, ok, so dont. The second big recent women in a pandemic involves a case of re infection out of Asia. Tell us about the researchers in China say your thirty three year old man living in all gone is the first person confirmed there have been re infected with the corona virus.
So the cases about a man who gets infected in Hong Kong early in the year recovers, four and a half months later goes to Spain, get sick, again recovers and soda there's no, that he got infected twice, which is kind of a nightmare situation. Yeah right. This is a potentially serious setbacks and even our war against grown a virus. This new case you mentioned out of Hong Kong, really does put into question that belief that so many of us have had that if you got grown a virus once you couldn't get it again, the reason that would worry people is because what I would imply that were never free of the disease, and maybe a vaccine wouldn't work, because if you got a vaccine, your protected and then Couple months later, you got infected again than in other vaccines, a bust right infections,
think equal a minute infection is supposed to produce a mere yes. Now, in this case, it was just reported out of Hong Kong. This doesn't shock. Immunology costs one up well, because it's been known that even with some diseases, where you think getting it provides lifetime immunity some people get it again and what happened in this guy's case was his first bout. A disease was mild and his second bout was so milder was asymptomatic. He didn't realize he had it, and what may have happened in this case is that he had such a mild infection, the first time that he got over it, but he really didn't produce enough long, lasting immunity in the form of anti bodies to prevent him from getting a second infection, so the reaction of doctors is well. This is a curiosity at it's kind of the.
Section. That proves the rule, but it's not something the panic about. This is not common. This is that something we're seeing all over the place, the millions and millions and millions of infections around the world, and we ve only seen one proven case. So don't worry This means the end of the vaccine or the vaccine more workers like that. So this does not fundamentally change our understanding of immunity from a covert nineteen infection Worse still, in the grey area, we don't know how long immunity lasts, but we suspect it lasts for a year or more, although that's impossible, approved, because this disease is only and income in existence before December. But looking at other diseases like it, that's what the best immunology expected to happen. Dont immunity for a year or so would probably imply that whenever a vaccine is ready it. My last.
Just a year or that too big a logical leap. So the answer is, nobody knows yet because we don't have the vaccine and we don't have a year's experience with a virus, but We know that some viruses mutate so fast that you need a vaccine every year. Typically the flu virus, we that this virus mutates at about one third, the rate of flu, so, maybe if it you know, hangs around will need a new shot every three years rather than every year, as you do But this is all a grey area. It's really hard to say no expert is gonna say we know. What's come all the way back. Would you pay
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Dont, our third development relates to the progress that we are making in the battle for a back seat and end. The biggest of these developments seem to be occurring overseas in Russia and in China, and something you could update us on those yeah, both the Russians and just recently the Chinese say, they have started distributing their vaccines without having done the phase three safety and efficacy trials. We are doing here and those are the ones that are double blind with a placebo like we talked about before right and, more importantly, they recruit tens of thousands of people. I think for these trials were recruiting thirty thousand people per vaccine. So
immunology in vaccine executives, hearsay. This is crazy with the Russians and the Chinese are doing. You don't release a vaccine before you ve done the Big safety trial, because problems that you did not find earlier could crop up and the big danger Problem, the one that everybody is worried about is that the vat seen makes you more likely to have a bad outcome if you do have the minors, as in more likely to get hospitalized die. So doctors here think the Russians in the Chinese are very responsible. This looks like they may be doing it for competitive reasons. Directions, one of they call their vaccines sputnik. They want to brag the Hateyou. We beat the United States. We beat the world at this, you know, as they did was Sputnik back in nineteen, fifty seven or whatever it was for satellite in space. So what they're really doing is using their own population as the guinea pigs, renewing the safety and efficacy stressing the vaccine and one hopes that
you know they are following those first. Thirty thousand guinea pigs really carefully to see if they pick up any dangerous signals that are there, you want to make sure that the vaccines go to people you think are likely to do. Well. You know help the young people and then you move it out into the risk groups, but out- and maybe I'm being are necessarily provocative here, but how different is what China and Russia are doing with these vaccines from what the United States and our FDA is doing with hydrochloric when and blood Plasma, which is starting to authorize the delivery of it to people before it's gone through those kind of gold standard double blind, placebo tests it. Similar and yet it's different. It's similar
because we are letting it be generally distributed before it's been proven that it works and is totally safe. It's different because hydrochloric, when did have along safety record. Can listen. Plasma does have along safety record. These vaccines at the Chinese and the Russians are using have safety record other than the test they ve done just in the last two or three months, presumably on you know- maybe a thousand people. Another important difference between what the Russians in China doing, but their vaccines and what we're doing the treatments here is that treatments are given to people who we're already sick and in from like you, can take wild chances with cancer treatments. When you have patients who are on the brink of death Rand there's nothing else, it will save them, whereas vaccines are given to healthy people, even sometimes the babies and pregnant women. So you do not want something that is at all unsafe, because you turn someone from healthy
into and healthy. You ve done more damage than if you just let them alone. So our risky emergency authorizations are less risky. Then what China and Russia are doing with back scenes, because our emergency others actions are going into sick people. There is our going into healthy people, correct, toddled. Finally, the fourth development here in the United States, It is a somewhat happy one for a change and that centres around the current infection rates in the United States, which is flat yeah, it's flattening, but I don't see this is a happy story. What am flattening at thirty thousand Kay the day you know, even in our good period,
in June when we thought we were doing well. We had twenty thousand cases a day. Many none of this has been a good news story. We have an out of control epidemic in this country and the fact that we ve brought it down by ten thousand case This is good dish, news relative to how bad it was gettin, but I don't think we should pat ourselves and our national back over getting down to thirty thousand new cases a day and what are they? locations of us even staying at such an infection rates Locations are the lot of people going to continue to die. You know this is like climbing a mountain and you get up to fourteen thousand ft and you stay at fourteen thousand feet. Cuz you're walking through a meadow it's still hard to breathe at that altitude. It's not a happy situation. We're not going back down two zero we're going back down to a few hundred cases of day with some other countries.
To that the application is it we're gonna have more people hospitalized more people die. What we're going to see are deaf numbers, go up beyond two hundred thousand, definitely on the way to three hundred thousand, don't know exactly when it's gonna reach that, but where steadily plotting day after day that peak of death and where I don't wanna, I dont want I don't let that slide valued your saying that it feels likely that the United States warhead three hundred thousand before the pandemic, Sohmer o before it's over. Yet the question is when, before it's over, I mean it's not me. It's the models. Some model suggest that the discussion be. You know well before Christmas. Three hundred thousand american dead before Christmas would be absolutely horrific gear. It would end we can avoid that by being smart using masks socially distancing, all the usual things, but we have to do it
and, of course, the fall in the. U S beyond everything. We're talking about means something else which is the flu. The flu is now about to kind of merge with the corona. Arrests, and I know that that has raised some fears. Is that something you worry about? No one. I M kind of an outlier on this, but there are doctors who agree with me. Fluid sit around hide in the country during the year. Flew travels migrate to the southern hemisphere. And hits them in the middle there winter, and then it comes back in the fall, but Transmission went to zero in this country in the third week of April. During locked out, it just went boom right down to zero, and then it did not really go south because people are really flying south right. It turns out
That flew in Australia is down by ninety nine percent this year and in the rest of the southern hemisphere, its way way way down to Chile, Argentina, Mozilla. If it isn't big there and there are no It's from there to hear you can't recede, flew here and also practicing social distancing, as we are now cuts down food and mission in any year. So I don't expect a big flew season, but I still think everybody should get their flew shot and I got mine His I'm wrong. So I think another incentive to abide by the rules or on the krona viruses. It is very nicely diminished, flew and other respiratory diseases are as we and the cold corona viruses and things any respiratory disease they get knocked out by all those diseases have dropped in this country
so I'm hearing you say in your role as our collective conscience that everyone should still get the flu vaccine just in case in order to carve take it off our play, and here I should say Donald and I'm always want to be your a student. In this respect I got the flu vaccines. Disco, good, excellent. I got mine, I got the senior shot, the four times as powerful, one that you can't get lost that's it S. Success sixty five, asked me. How do I get one of those in a black now, insurance will not pay for it until you are over sixty five, then slightly sore arm than usual? I think, but I, but I do know that actually good sign. It means the shots working, but I thank you very much. We appreciate you welcome on Monday night, the time
reported that many scientists have been startled by the way that the FDA has interpreted and communicated data about the effectiveness of blood plasma. Entreating covered nineteen, several of them, including those who worked on the Mayo Clinic study cited by the Trump of instruction, said. They cannot figure out the origins of the claim that it would do so deaf by thirty five percent and are highly doubtful of. That figure will be right back.
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Tuesday morning a strip of stores, inclinations, downtown, was consumed by flames. Bleak was shot repeatedly by a white officer, as he tried to get inside his car. The shooting appeared to be unprovoked. And was immediately condemned by was Constance governor. The officers involved in the encounter have been placed on administrative leave, as an investigation continues at bottom chairman, Louisiana, proudly cash, its forty six votes for President Bottle J drop Michigan Re Lakes Day, it's gonna cats, rebounds for private internal tat trunk. In order to keep America first, the state of Arizona cast.
Fifty seven votes for President Donald J Tromp during the opening night of the Republican National Convention in Charlotte President Tromp, was nominated for a second term after and in person roll call, I doubt it you wanna really drive him crazy. You say twelve. You're in a short speech excepting the nomination Tromp sought to cast doubt on as far as election by attacking mail in voting and accusing Democrats without ever of seeking to steal the election. Last time, Jos, boss was Obama, that's time it would be policy sanders and the Squire their vision America is socialism, and we know that socialism has failed everywhere. They want to tell him
and had a live more to think leader in the night. A series of speakers, including Trump First ambassador to the United Nations. Nicky Hayley claimed that Joe Biden, a moderate, would pursue a left wing agenda that would undermine american values at home and overseas. This president has a record of strength and success. The former vice president has a record of weakness and earlier? Joe Biden is good for IRAN and ISIS Great for Communist China and he's a godsend,
everyone who wants America to apologize, abstain and abandon our values. Donald Trump takes a different approach, he's tough on China and he took on ISIS and one any tells the world what it needs to hear. That's it for the daily unworkable borrow see tomorrow.
Transcript generated on 2020-08-25.