« The Dan Bongino Show

Ep. 512 Is it Time for a Third Party?

2017-07-27 | 🔗
In this episode I ask the question, "Is it time for a third-party in politics?" With the Republican Party consistently letting voters down, is it time to move on? https://shar.es/1TYpVQ   The Republican Party better get its act together because we may be looking at another recession. This piece sums up the reasons why.  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/why-soaring-assets-and-low-unemployment-mean-its-time-to-start-worrying-1499247003   Here's another troubling reason the economy is sputtering along and you're not getting a raise.  https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-slow-wage-growth/
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
they don t know i owe you was home you owe me i owe you there's nobody dan bungee no show anything run by liberals will be run into the ground burned stepped on gasoline port on had been burned again give way to hear the truth about amerika there arguing about things and debating how quickly they can deconstruct the greatest country in the history of mankind and all of the ideas norms and have gotten us on a showed its not immune to the facts with your host bonds you know i was running a republic of their budget we should show our unity lad beer then let it get you ever go to reduce the coverts get right to it by the way just on a personal note no deal yet on the ford wrapped there but i cannot thank you enough my awesome terrific past the gaudy for all of the feedback you guys are
ladys i asked for feedback on the ford wrapped their john i get about a hundred he has written people tell me everything from their how they re can run a little hot the air conditioning how wonderful it is the deserts of thank you very much means a lot to behaviour today show party biafra brick house nutrition big fan these guys if it would be from the beginning one of the best young hungry nutrition companies on a market they have to gray products one product i wanna fuck today's dawn the dusk terrific product those view like me i had to get up early morning do foxen friends who have eternal days that never after her and a blue who pour me i say that's our cassock we just getting up you know on days now i really do it helps to be able to have done to dusk it's a ten our energies a ten hours of time released energy you're not going to get the ups and downs you're not gonna get the crashes go give it a shot it's great people who work out for working moms dazzled people have really busy lies ceos military focus is fantastic cops environment people
to be alert for the entire day i have a pilot email me a lot about it who loves the product go give it a shot is called on to dusk the documents available at break counselor that calm slash dan that's brick house nutrition that come slash dan all right so yesterday joe yeah as predicted the republican sold you out again if europeans listener and i love the dichotomy show between the bench listeners in the daily lessons because i did e mails are both and i could tell right away what you do if you bench listen or if you listen every day i said yesterday there applicants we're gonna sell you out on a clean repeal of obamacare the vote yesterday so just to be clear for those you missed it who are busy lives a vote was well then the senate to repeal mommy care clean just get rid of it and what happened as i predicted yesterday i said they would fail because the republicans of no guts they have ok holidays it did fail because seven
public in turn coats voted against the bell so it didn't even like fail by sliver joe china we have fifty two republic and senators we didn't get any close to fifty two votes and folks i i sometimes you just hope and pray that you're wrong but sadly be very rarely are on the show concern working party will take every opportunity so you out i ask you again as i said on fox in france it this morning for those views you know what's the point what's the point you know the rules working party we did this out you said and i met it and i want to say what they think about what i'm about to tell you the republican party useful when you don't need them and useless when you do you know you need a post office named after someone their great you need a resolution out there about how you know in these adorable adorable puppies your cue their perfect they'll send that out for you no opera unita our resolution praising our veterans you know thank god for events right now military servicemen either
the resolution but for spray those things are all easy everybody loves our veterans at our military men because they deserve it everybody babies are cute you know why job because they are everybody thinks puppies acute you know why because they are gay nobody it's useless starve unita posts this named after you know jackie i've been saying or or whatever they ll do it great guy but he was a brave man he gets a post office namely after or something you'll see a resolution on a congress no problem but think actually you don't really really make a difference in your lives of things are all great there's other stuff but things it will make a difference in your life tax cuts repealing dreadful obamacare getting your kid a decent education that's up they abandon you every time they can't decide on a did they can't decide on tax cuts they can't decide and obamacare so what's the point so you know play the lot you're so let me just give you some solutions that are waiting
because i'm so pissed off right now that we could go on for the entire show complaining about how that the stock level of the republican party which is off the chart i would ask you a question is goes to you i'm a cost but as you know is it time for a third party now okay go wait before i get before i said that i want to give you the pros and cons i don't know why i honestly don't know we're joe stands at this i've never had this conversation with em no i've ever i've never idle preface that the content that don't talk to joe but the content before the show intentionally because i want to don't sound like a natural conversation that it is here pros and cons of this dilemma let me be clear clear to my in my second book the fight i wrote an entire chap they're telling you how bad is of an idea third party is having run for office you know a number of times and having repeatedly been exposed to the machinations echo on behind the scenes i always do
there are parties were a bad idea and and and hears why why do first let's put let's lay down the markers you why do we need political parties in the first place and why do we need specifically in this case the republican party let's talk nuts and bolts while number one you needed for ballot access folks in states they could joan lives in maryland where i live in florida the reply working party they have ballot lines that in other words on every single general election because of the number of votes that party gets not them for the person but the number of votes the party gets it some will change on each brow and obviously the same person running every time they will have a day dedicated ballot light they may see what are you talking about that means and a general election whoever wins the nomination by that political party in this case the republican party joe will be on the general election ballot i no this but you can't just on a general election ballot in a lot of states you have to get us
number of signatures in need of john why do you think that it's it's pretty simple because let's say you have a let's say you had you well that's not very democratical evokes really sure because i say in maryland right they had a marilyn's one of the war i know the maryland election was pretty well here that to get on the primary balin i think it's like a two hundred and seventy dollar figures like that which is nice will you may say what anybody should be ever gonna primary about a short pause the case joe maryland this five point six million residents if there was not some barrier to entry for credibility now you you could see thousand people about that case that's not democracy at all because what happens you go into boot you see a hundred thousand age i got have no time to sort through all this somewhat states do i agree with by the way as they set some barrier to entry for credibility they'll say that saves money when florida it's a tenth i think it's ten thousand you have to
ten thousand dollars in some form of donor money up front that's not a lot honestly if you can't raise ten thousand dollars and you want to run for congress or the senate or the governorship seriously you're not you're not serious and we can we both agree on joe ia basic congressional races gonna cost a million two million to win because you're gonna need together it's a business getting allay getting elected sadly politics become a business to be getting elected isn't business you have to open up a very serious operation to get you need to spend about ten thousand dollars to on the ballot and flaws in maryland this two hundred hours with a proud two hundred some dollars eight may have gone up at the point is it marilyn anybody and your mom can get on the ballot and create she's really long primary less it's not democracies are also having a republican party that in a general election at least already has a ballot line makes really easy because i'm what happened show you have a primary you have an entry fee to get in and a primary which shows you're serious you have credible candidates
and you have a winner and then you have a spot in the general election ballot which guarantees that at that a minimum when someone goes to vote the republican party we'll have a name in a pot easy peasey uneasy pc these guys was a disease cover without cover girl commercial i forget but i always get the power i constantly get the pop culture the regiment no time to watch tv commercials but that's easy beautiful cover it's gotta be a right of land or sea mammals people always do they always correct me anyway so they have better access ok number two so the republican party is is is beneficial because they already have a lot of general action number two money after you the primary to let's just talk generals were now let's move that move along from the primary told you about the money to get on the primary ballot which is a barrier to entry for credibility now the general you have a ballot axis you also money so once you
the republican primer you're going to get the support of a lot of republicans who'd you don't know you don't know you from adam but no you are a republican because you wonder republican primary it happened and an folks i've let me be completely candid prism i wanted we the pros and cons i know i don't like you all get a third party and i think the ups and downs one the republican primary for congress and the republican primary for the united states senate and state of maryland there are republicans who donated to me who didn't know me but they knew they knew i won the primary they knew they were republicans and they figure because i had that label in front of me that was the imprimatur from the party that i was good to go they donated money i so i'm not good at senior that i did not benefit and i still don't if it in some respects from being aligned with the geo p bran ok so and just to put out the positive so ballot access money also there's voter less there's other things they come along with being a republic already nominee when you when the nomination they have access to vote or data and other things you probably wouldn't get if you were an independent canada so those
the pluses that's why we need why we need a public water public imparts our aims of them and i would invite the next topic that also another downside for a third party to be clearer this is we could split devout in vienna local elections without name i did now here's what i mean by that if you were to run a candidate as an independent right so you have public in running joe a democrat running in an independent but the independence it conservative but he's running is an independent that's what you have is and this is what i warned against my second book is you of a coalesce democratic party which even in swing districts let's say its forty five percent of voters ok so it's a swinging district numerous efforts bring district wise and a fifty percent democratic voters being nice you to try and make the case saves forty five percent of the voters will vote democrat no matter what you now have
fifty five percent of the voters left so you say ok great republican candidate you know we could win or forty five percent vote republican and ten percent or open for you know open up for grabs right so you have you no forty five forty five and ten in the middle what would you do you split that that basic fifty five percent you sitting on half year they're gone no chance of winning because half of it five is not greater than a forty five percent of indicative vote democrat you follow items answer do so you split about that he's been a problem but but here's a here's where you here's where we overcome the so now we have to do you know why we the republican party why is it why would be technically a quote good thing ok ballot access money and you support the vote otherwise but if you had eight and this this is where i'm gonna am i'm almost refuting my second box if you bought my second book go line that chapter and say danville gino changes might cause i'm starting to slowly changed my mind in this third party thing after we were
old out by obamacare that's the genesis of this whole thing and the tax debate which were losing out because work winning on anything serves no purpose to having a party that loses all the time and sells you out right did i'm a little hesitant to say that cuz i don't know who's listening and i have a have a feeling someone in the trump administration does a friend of mine because i get some strange emails after my show still find out yeah i'll find out today i think trump should leave the republican party i know this sounds crazy i know a lot of you may be shaken your heads i'm expecting some viewer listener email on this maybe someday there may be some negative i they trump should lead the exit from the republican party i say that because joe this is why set this up i equally the way i did go ahead i gotcha you see well with his yes all of those things i told you are assets are completely wiped out if trump leads the exit from the republican party all of it let's go down but that's
so let's go down the list we needed the republican party i don't mean to sound all over the place but we needed the republican party for the reasons i laid out the reasons we don't need the republican party anymore because there absolutely useless army ideological legislative front they can't do anything on tax cuts they can't do anything on spending they can't do anything on the deficit they can't do anything on federal funding for abortion they did they could do nothing they can do nothing they kick it anything done so we don't need them trump if he would led the exit from the republican party ballot access is guaranteed in the presence of the united states for peace the present are you folks if donald trump comes to republican party today and run for reelection is an independent i promise you his name will be on the ballot you tell me what it takes to rubber stage so we're clear about how a federal elections work there is a national standard for ballot access even in a national election digest
i just told you there is no united states standard for ballot access every stay has own standards even for the presidential race so for maryland it may be whatever two hundred and seventy dollars so trump i'm pretty joe you don't think we need jays advocates for this now but i'm pretty sure trot can afford two hundred seventy thousand maryland to go on about you think i'd help him we needed it joe atlas joe atomic apricots and i are rich but joe it was split jealous but it does not offer up there what throw it out as a donation we'll get out or even of its legal by the way but we'll try ok so trop can get on the ballot marilyn no problem in florida where i think it's ten thousand dollars or whatever may be forgive me it's been a while since i've read that god not running again ever but them i still think trump can win the wing the ten thousand little bit more the two you have indeed been a pretty sure troops ok i mean
states it's a certain amount of signatures so let's say whenever in no high oh i'm a bad have no idea what oh hi which is so me be cleaned up a saves two hundred and two thousand signatures that trust when i tell you that's no problem for tromp they'll get that in two weeks easily so trump will have no problem getting on about as an independent it's a pallet access we don't need em no point don't move up move along secondly pretty short term so gay with modern number one trap as it is a billionaire now what le billion ere we can all dispute but nobody disputes that man is tremendously wealthy and spend a business success ok failures but he's out obviously a lot more successes that very much how can it be a problem also outside of his own self financing trump is an extremely prolific fundraiser i know that sounds crazy but the are and the trump and pay in raising boatloads of money yes they are a lot of people oh i've in you know this joe from callers and new morning show there d be cb em they're very path
about trump i'm sure you would all time he will have zero problem raising money and finally voter data again a total non issue trump had a really tremendous voter data operation despite the fact that the clinton's painted his campaign is a bunch of technological idiots so ask you this joe now because i asked you a question beginning to show in its now fifteen minutes you still have been allowed to answer and i've been thinking about it ok given what told you the pros were to having a republican party and the pros are having trouble leave the republican party and run as independent do you think it's time for a third party while preface what to say by telling you i'm a registered on affiliate in maryland i'm on affiliated that's independent yes i think i would like to have the republican party hang around i would like to keep it simple and have two parties but they haven't done a damn thing for they're not doing a damn thing for me or anybody else did vote republican sure what's this
and having them what are your point that's the point so yeah it's probably time and trump can bring a whole bunch of folks with him and that's a great time to us to start a third party at an end by the way is a good point people who voted for trump in the last election a lot of them a good swaths of our not republican show you and i both know this yes airy their democrats or like joe in reddish in maryland you can't register independent he's right right you have to register on affiliated right a lot of and affiliated voters folks they couldn't give a damn about the republican party but they do care about trump now let me get me add another number to move on a second because this is important this is a very serious conversation we need to start having if we need to start dumping the republican party i don't take this cash out this conversation casually or lightly if going to do it though he can't do it alone but he can but i wouldn't invite enemy phrase that he can do it alone i don't think it would be smart now
what are you gonna laugh but this when i say that some shore but hear me out again i think these things through i promise you have put a lot of homework into this show for you my this is my worldview everything to me outside of my wife kids the lord almighty while he comes first i mean this you are everything to masses to my wife every day i put in hours and hours of show prep to make sure never waste your time i've got this through he shouldn't do it alone he should go grab mightily he should go grab ran paul and he should go grab ted crews and say our turn to start something new and fresh now i know a lot of your leffingwell you're insane and i no i know exactly what you're going to say you're going to well why trumps not really a conservative and mike lee is don't unquestionably conservative ted crews is unquestionably a conservative and re
paul is unquestionably a conservative area actually he's moreover liberty live liberal directive liberal serve second it is worthwhile but with i say that because conservative areas which i would describe myself as a conservative libertarian tenzin tendencies ran paul moreover libertarian with some conservative tendencies makes sense show you something if a mail me i'd like my own did you guys are great is it a liberal servant if can someone give me something that makes sense cassettes adds ridiculous now seriously daniel at budget that sent me something because maybe with us that over the rampart gimme a liberal lieber you can't say that europe say these some that flows off the tongue where conservatory inflows maybe lieber servitude routers paul is a libertarian conservative i get it i know you're complaints you're going to say why would and even go along with our folks i'm here to tell you is well knowing so these guys personally that aid
like each other there very nice guys all of em they been very good to me and never loyal and good people but i know they have differences to amongst themselves when i think tribe should do is come out tomorrow and be honest he should say listen i'm a business guy i am our sadly in the business of disgusting politics which i hate i'm not used to this during my time in the business of politics to broken business of i've come on i figured out the conservative values are the best way to advance the country forward i stay and some of you don't agree with me but that's where i'm going now i don't agree with these three centres on everything and i know they don't agree with each other on everything which they dont folks statement believe me lee pauling whose do not agree on everything just look at that last obamacare debate and accrues amendment right now but i'm telling you as a business man that these three senators
a model for success going forward i agree with eighty to ninety percent of the time the report working party is lost i don't agree with it even fifty percent of the time anymore me in these three centres are gonna go forward we're gonna found the freedom party the liberty party whatever it may be and we are gone to be we are going to advance good solid conservative values advance the economy the healthcare system the education system and if these other republicans wanna leave that shell of a party and come along you're welcome but how is our platform and they lay it out they lay out five or six things they all agree on say there are other things here we each individually we agree on earth but this is the core stuff we're going to move on taxes school choice pro life second amendment bedrock principles what do you think joe i like it i mean he needs some help he could use some help if it's going to be tough to do it yeah of course and and and i spent more time and if i wanted to vote but its critical we start the ball on this going forward i am willing to
bob my own positions when i think i made a mistake and i really think i made a mistake not calling for a new party i really do and there is no better person on the planet right now none to make a deal about the at form of a third party going forward dead donald j trop not go gradually go grab paul go grab crews go into the house grab a few members of the house a blue gold or some other people look for some different and make it happen make it happen yesterday altogether somewhat here today show alter also bought you by friends at my patriot supply hey thank you for all the feedback on the product by the way appreciate everybody go out binding one month emergency supply of food i know this and i no really wealthy country you hear about in one month emergency supply food you like while i'm probably not going to meet that well are you sure no serious abbe don't mean to be silly value sugar do you really want to be sure is that the kind of thing we you're so sure of it you're not willing to spend ninety nine dollars to which europe must supply food in one of the listeners who bought it
send me an email which was he was right here listen romania listeners that that one month suppliers for one person my humble opinion as i said the last time i did this red i have a couple a cup boxes of them are emergency food i need more i have for people in my family i gotta get to more eminent reach out the patriot supply patriot supply sometime this week up in so much going on but i wrong suggest go out there and do it it contains emergency food to get you threw one person for a month you never know when you're gonna need it in his breakfast lunch at dinner you just need at least need to add water it's good for twenty five years peace of mind for twenty five years have it not needed than god forbid you needed and don't have a lonely for missed meals away from chaos has been said many times that thick i've read that want to thomas souls books go out and get can i go to prepare with dan dot com that's prepare with dan come and pick up your mercy supply of food to date one might the folks at one month that's all it's
all price to pay for some some peace of mind ok now the kind of reset to show a little bit as well for the reasons i opened up today with the topic of should we all consider a third party in here is how it should happen is because this just the obama care thing yesterday although that was in my humble opinion the biggest political sell out in die don't i'll sixty seven the years i can't i can't think of a purely a bigger sell out then a republican party that ran for since obama's you started the obamacare debate on repealing obamacare they all ran on a job and in failed to do it yesterday when when you know when that when when it was right in front of him i mean that it was right there you had one job you had one job i was messed up my friend you i got this cop random i doubt we were pleased that we are police officers in the academy together known forever and i he call me
the florida turnpike down here i live off the turnpike anything about the florida turnpike is down in southern florida you miss an exit show you might as well go to miami because x x it is is literally eighty miles away so he it's the exit we call be these like it just added forty minutes so my trip i said you have one job had one job get off the right exit that's one job that one twenty to day you could just get off the exit how do you miss the exit would gps it's like you reproaching me exit in one mile in point my my in point eight miles in point five miles in a hundred feet in fifty feet into free get off you idiot right now you kid it's the eggs if you add one job just one he missed it while you will you had one job repeal obama care that was it you had one job one job you couldn't even do that the guy you know me yes said we should start a ring town whose greatest
are you staying every goes you need thereby gino bring tells you know when we go he loves we say why he takes that's funny he wants thereby gino ringtone one that would be good maybe we should start but here's another broken promise the republican but i'll put this in the show notation article in bloomberg the republic party can't even agree on a tax cuts back at you joe this is a bond for those you know play baseball europe want is a but as we all have to swing back as it is this i buy my baseball coach coach stand or have a mention in a long time a long time ago devil last time i mentioned works coach stand gregor all you have to do is catch the ball with about europe a hit it it's a pond everybody supports tax cuts and the republican party even moderates they can't even get that done so nautical bloomberg today and here's a quote from the peace which is going to blow your mind it describes as the absolute futility of the pathetic disturbing broken
echo is spineless cowardly republican party talking paul ryan who by the way is very nice guy personally but the i'll get it anymore it's going out with him it says about dot attacks cut it is ryan has insisted that attacks overhaul must happen in twenty seventeen since twenty eighteen mid term elections could could complicate the task now why am i read an equality like bats are the monday quote no note oh there's a lot in there you made out of picked up but oh there's a whole lot in there so they have to the tax cuts now because someone could get elected in twenty eighteen and amid terms or unelected and that could come kate the task what does that mean if you ll be translated dc talk thank you wear cow ugly backing off tax cuts because democrats are going to use the tax the rich class warfare against us and if we do
but now we think they'll forget it by two thousand and eighteen before the election but if we cut taxes right before the election someone's going to run an ad saying we did tax cuts for the rich and we republicans may lose her seat to the ringtone people come again really so now let me get this straight you now we ve already forfeited the argument that tax rate tax rate rate cuts will cost the government repast quote the government revenue and are as a is a yeah we're throwing darwin abound to the rich so we ve all recapitulated the argument house to produce this party instead of going out and making the case which is an easy case to make easy case to make money in your pocket joe money people who are wealthy money and people who are the middle class money people's pockets will eventually felt around to the economy in the form of economic growth as
been shown repeatedly over and over john f kennedy ronald reagan bill clinton over it and over again we're already capitulating argument and we're afraid in twenty eighteen because it could quote complicate the ask because our elections coming up folks it's over it's over no i mean it the republican party it's over they ve already perpetuated two major things even though they had one job they ve magically they had one job and they ve lost two they screwed up to i was even though they only had one day we're up obamacare it was a major capitulation to what to the democrats idea joseph that to go meant somehow has a solution for healthcare that's all this is joe is it not all this is under obamacare by refusing to repeal obamacare is a capitulation to the far left democrat
idea that the government has a solution for health care when the government broke it that's all it is it's nothing more we ve capitulated one of our party planks that the bed that now freedom and liberty work and could fix healthcare we ve already capitulated that so republican party is no purpose anymore about but even worse they ve capitulate point number two that tax rate the economy will benefit the economy and will benefit the middle class ironically even if those tax cuts go to high earners because what a high earners do with the money joe did joe think they burn it no so if you joe let's say that just watch play rich people for medical we're not but let's play that let's say you and i are ten million dollar earners each that would put us in the top one percent right down i believe you can't you set your thurston our also those so just gets attacks got joe now now thurston if i were to give you say you pay four million in taxes we give a tax rate cod right thurston
and you get a million dollars back what would you do with a million i wouldn't instead i want splendid our back thank you thurston you don't need jays abacus thurston just summed it up folks a lot of these ten million dollar earners those evil rich people using the these sick deranged dialogue on the left are going to go out and invest their money in their business which will grow the bene left just like that and they will invest in the business which will grow the business which will make the business more capable at a higher more employees which will make the employs more capable to pay taxes and to finance the government that the left love so much if data invested what else they do as s thurston adequately and correctly said he will spend it what if he buys a new yacht gives who cares what thurston buys a second yacht who do you think built a yacht who do you think built there are people who work who pay taxes who do you dig built a damn yak you what are you
if this guy's got another yet what do you want him to do you want to kill em what are you if you want the brunt of money you idiots gosh or they stupid you redeem we ve already capitulated the argument this is insane now i bring you for another amount having any get to have i have so much stuff it's just like i'm serious i'm i'm overwhelm material there's a great piece about section seven oh two despite then the governor i'm gonna get to at some point to it maybe tomorrow shell but to some material to pipe right paying up at a neat little ball this this argument we don't need the gnp prompt can start a third party he's the only one who could start a third party we don't need them because they have capitulated the ideological fight on government on government in health care and they ve sure capitulated the ideological fight on the economy thinking that rich people when they a tax rate cut will go and burn the money which is imbecility
and if you listen i shall regularly i've already quoted to you data stephen more about how rich people tax revenue one up after the tax cuts okay this is the kind of stuff we're already capitulating the facts the data is really disturbing so we don't need a party trump should get a third already going he should start with mightily an m we don't need a party cause we forfeited the ideological fights and why is this important now well here's why i i will put the show notes today peace from july fifth so it's about two weeks old common on three weeks old from gregg who does really really terrific work he wrote a really great book forgive me i can't whereas had it somewhere you are a really great book i like the title that but gregg wrote a piece in the wall street journal that shit really scare this not out of all of you as you know i don't like the do some want to leave you with a mccobb topic button pieces the little bit the stir in the gist of it is is it time to worry about the economy
and my answer to you would be ass an amber you all this up third party you know this other staff because the geo p is not worried one bit they care about one thing joe and that is re election and twenty eighteen nobody cares but here's a cup what data points from you from the gregg piece which i think should have you all saying okey doke markets good unemployment generally good i would have my spidey sense going thing namely maiming naming right now ok he says the low cost the hedge against what they call major market moves already which known as implied volatility may soon a bad sign in other words people are spending money jail right now to ensure themselves against market downturn so you may simple what don't get at them like so what people are concerned about a market downturn why are you well because when implied volatility or people not
sharing against me and ended basically there comfortable jones like not ensuring yourself it gets a hurricane risk as you haven't had a hurricane twenty years that's use when the hurricane habits and argue look at aunt potential catastrophe so the low volatility or low implied volatility or not a lot of insurance out there are hedging against headaches a better terms against made the market moose should not you don't miss tat for a second for the fact that it could happened just like people in florida who if there has been a major hurricane down here in ten years that doesn't mean we won't have one next week ok number one that's right weakest can that's why i started out with this but number two growth rates can only go up joe i'm gonna have to get through these quickly this rates going up i don't want peace what's that like liberals by ten can be bad sign for the economy why is at its very simple joe if you're lest he should accompany jos teaching company wants to invest in its just wonderful new teacher line he knows there's a lot of demand for but joe doesn't have
capital right now joe s too to do it he couldn't you know he can t do it did he find ass you know he could they can do up he can go public and get money from africa people want to buy stock and a company or joe can issue a bad debt he can issue a bond issuance if they can buy bonds and accompany well natures rates go up that means we're going to have to pay more interest on those bonds and of joe can afford a ten percent interest on abides alive but you know what i'm saying when interest rates go up a cost joe in jos teacher company more money to finance and expansion of his business not a good thing then we'll be overly simplistic can mean that that's not a good thing but interest rate a very low right now and welcome this very little room on the downside that's bad sign number two they had signed number three and this i'm getting this this one was not in the any gregg p some on poland this from another bloomberg peace i buy crossing over because i want to make sure you get the full picture he says well listen you know what about employment we're at full imply
right now this could get worse we're not at full employment here's the problem is another are gone bloomberg up witness show notes right now it blows this amount attacking heavies the beast d just doesn't cover this partner peace or not at full employment joe right is a peace and bloomberg title why aren't you getting rates and the pieces still clear not getting arrays right now because although the unemployment that top line unemployment number is love the you six number joe which is people not looking for a job but who would take one so they're out of the workforce they're not looking actively but they take a job if it came up its at eight point six we may soon what is at me for that's really high the last spanish and it was at seven point nine almost appoint lower meaning there are a lot more people not working so you may so what does that have to do this well because lot more people not working and that actively looking there not competing for your job what they're not compete
for your job there's a pool of people out there who could flow into the workforce tomorrow as wages start to creep up to compete away your job it's over there's a reserve of workers out there is what i'm getting at show an army of unemployed people who are not actively looking but it will take a job when the right price comes up pool the meat we compete away your job if you get a re so let's say job that may make a super simple and i always get four back office i know a lot of people think i'm wrong but i am absolutely convinced this is why it is not going up in in recovery as they should be joe as a unique talent w sepia joseph sound engineer has a unique skill set let's say joe you walk into cbs tomorrow say i want to ten thousand dollars right or or i'm leaving i'll tell you right now no joe skills cbs would be an alert big top i'd be joseph i want ten thousand dollars per show i be an alert to
in a super hard labour market where there's no reserve of sir the engineers on the sidelines joe jaguar looking but i'll take get the right price ok so in a perfect world super competitive labour market where there is no sound engineers left what is that mean you see do they got up the ten guy no show now it pod economy but a hot economy but a high you six rate in other words poor sound engineers who are unemployed but not really looking right now what does she do they go ten thousand armor casa you that you're mine stay put out a job thing go looking for a sound engineer let's say joe made a hundred thousand yeah i know what you meant by that same makes a hundred thousand day put it we once andred ten what does it mean do they put out a job opening for a hundred thousand all of a sudden that sound than usual quote wasn't looking yes you know what i'll take it josie later in a
a job market that guy's not there they either page when ten what hague was cited are see you later they have no putting show that stupid that's why you're not getting a raise so these are some warning signs on the economy right now that piero animation will wipe out a warning sign but just the kind of double down on that you have to ask you again the why why is there and this is where i think this is a problem for the economy why is there an army of unemployed people out there not looking but we'll take a job with the right one comes up folks its beak the entitlement state and a safety net is grown to such a point that people own half do you get an open the phone you can get section eight you can get snap in our food stamps you can get unemployment for sixty two hundred twenty five weeks for you the point the growth
the entitlements state under barack obama has forced onto the economy a one a cost taxpayers are paying for all these benefits so now joe you raise is being taken up by tat sollers were you're working to work to pay for people not work to frankly not compete for your job this is a problem folks as a warning to us is not the sign of a healthy economy decide about the economy is not an army of unemployed workers who are not taking jobs that are available that is not a good sign a quick things and we will move on to couple other bad signs here if there was little circuitous but it's a critical point you take i need you to take away from the show stocks in our training at twenty two times past years earnings from the gregg peace twenty two times that's your historic high well two years a big trouble sign corporate debt t shirt company borrowing money open up a new teacher let corporate joe as a share of economic output is it those last seen before
as to recessions ok here's one more and i leave you with this inflation low right now a good sign depends the reasons but let's use simplistic liberal thinking just for second if wages those growth now here's the problem low inflation could be a good thing but now liberals you can turn out for conservatives libertarian the intellectual part of the job lower inflation is generally a good thing oh inflation is not necessarily a good thing jehu when growth is loaded now why would that be emissions but we want inflation we don't i am first well dollars why just the reeds for birch gold represent but big believer in i'm first tabled out but folks if jos teacher company has taken out a boat load of debt i just told you joe corporate debt as a share of output the money you oh isn't too high levels has been since the last two recessions if you are a lot of money and your company growing
inflation low inflation would eat away that debt and would actually benefit you i'm not suggesting inflation is a good thing be very careful but i'm sure low inflation with high growth is awesome that is that's the best thing you could what high growth low inflation low inflation low growth with a ton of corporate debt what does that mean in flight would eat away the value of the dollar but it also would eat away the value of corporate debts that make censure if inflation means a dollar you spend this worth less which is what it means it also means the value bar is worth less too which is good for you if you are a lot of money right understand if you a lot of debt which companies do right now and you're not growing to pay off the debt violation isn't eating away the value that debt folks can i have a lot of companies if the stock market takes even a little bit of a dip in the uk meters out we're not gonna be able to pay that dead back this is a pity so i'm not trying to scare anyone but let me too wrap the whole shown our pre you though
warning signs be a paul review here moment for the geo p right now to get something done on obama karen taxes because if the stock market crashes and we go through even another many recession job we're now lose thirty to forty seats in the congress and we're gonna lose the presidency so folks i'm you to anyone who knows members of congress congress members listen or the staffers the warnings ensure their there living environment now joe what they think i will be ok the economy's motoring along people of offers it may not be it is i'm to head off the impasse tidal wave of bad news now get the tax cuts get to economic growth and get out all those warning signs out of the way so companies can grow and the inflation rates won't matter naked start making money and we could start moving forward many today the show gave me a little bit of a headache today because i broke this thing out to make it legible
but little arrows to direct myself where needed to go but i want to make sure i left you with it with a coherent that get a third party time to dump the republicans they forfeited the ideological fight theirs i'm pretty right now thinking economically earth is going to be terrific and it's going to get him re elected i just gave you the warning signs as to why the economy may crash again please onto them those warning signs and let them know that they need to do something now to head off a potential recession around a corner i folks scan for tuna really appreciate almost march i do want to get to this spying thing with the goose is a piece in the wall street journal with a guy in that sounds like an educated guy very educated gap it has it all backwards on government spying i want to give you little perspective from the inside how really works i see
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Transcript generated on 2020-03-06.