Dara, Jane, and Matt talk about what surprised them in 2019, remember the last decade, and predict what 2020 might have in store.
Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias), Senior correspondent, Vox
Dara Lind (@DLind), Immigration reporter, ProPublica
Jane Coaston (@cjane87), Senior politics reporter, Vox
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
You don't have set about with the stars. I may I would see me up like a love. What comes another episode, the beads, on the possibility of Potass network? I met your glaziers with Jane coasted and pro public as dare lend at today's December thirty. First, twenty nineteen
snuck into the office. We stuck into the office which is closed, but we are here, gonna do a kind of a year and show
etc. So I then start out just say like why. What surprised you in the year of our Lord two thousand ninety, I think the thick. Let surprised me was how much, especially within the world of conservatism, how their kept being arguments made where I was like, oh interesting, so we're just gonna do igniting ninety three again like aloud, I
like the debates over pornography or kind of the debates of ip or what is government for what are we doing here? It was interesting that really did harking back to me too kind of this idea of using the the forces of government to do things that you want to do not just abandoning government. It's a concept and this yoke of the break between conservatism and libertarians has been really interesting to me. I think that's been somewhat surprising.
also I've been interested in how much I don't know I feel like twenty. I keep having moments where I thought that something happened in twenty nineteen and it actually happened in like two thousand and seventeen, and I think that something could have surprised me is that, like,
the movement and mechanisms of time have gotten really weird. Yet someone made it
on twitter about. I noticed we are reaching the end of the forty eight month. Twenty sixteen and re be extended.
the extent which it just is a big indistinguishable- slurry is kind of some.
That said, I think what surprised me and twenty nineteen give
twenty seventeen and twenty eight to erect was that
the east in some issue areas. I think foreign policy is a good example. Immigration. Obviously, because I'm saying it is like we're coming from what s the story, the kind of
the White House or Donald Trump has these Galaxy brain ideas, and then they kind of get slow, opt into oblivion by the powers that be in the bureaucracy got. That
happened a lot and twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen and twenty maintain it felt like
the White House, his ability to actually exert its will over the,
As to the executive branch strengthened, and I think a lot,
that is just the hollowing out of you know
some cases. Senior civil servants who were you, know a FED up and quitting
in some cases, the kind of continued like churn of
little calls and the replacement of permanent appointees whip actings.
All over the government, so that their all really
serving at the moment to moment. Will the president has meant that a lot of the people whose
it would be under normal circumstances, to say? Ok, we need,
slow down and think about this and figure out the best or most legal or whatever way to do this or just quietly
shouted at the bottom of the agenda forever or not.
To say no or not yet any more, and so I think
While the first two years of this presidency had me thinking that the that transit,
kind of long term impact on the executive branch might have been somewhat overstated. I now think it somewhat understate. We really see that migration, we really mean, there's been a
told all renewal of that, the leadership,
Carson, yes right from from wearily what I've heard
two or three times over in most cases, yeah right, Benyamin, but I mean I'd like that's not a coincidence. Rightly that's the process that you are talking about, like enough people have quit Orban fired and been replaced with actings to the pointed Trump has now got in place, a team such as it is that like
actually does what he said. I may, since for what it's worth is that this is not its not there's something unique about immigration policy here, it's just that their tends to be more friction when Donald Trump is paying a tent
into a particular issue area and therefore has some ideas for what he wants to see happen out of it and as that attention,
intensifies or wanes the people who
currently in their positions, become less or more safe, depending rag. I've heard from some folks at state who think that you know they are
they have a little more breathing room compared to the first year of the administration,
whereas I think it on some of the kind of
border stuff. In particular, there wasn't really a lot of emphasis in twenty seventeen, but like there,
certainly has been a lot and twenty eight ten twenty nineteen, because you know these country examples right. We're like tromp was tweeting the other day or talking about how I give to flush, toilets, tumor
Julia and recycle we're gonna view that an English. My understanding, as of now is a gps not informed
reassessing those. On the other hand, the president's obsession with homelessness does appear to actually be turning into a domestic policy point. Yes, sir. I know that I dont think I think that's actually really good, not immigration example of something that like genuinely would not have happened in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen. They wouldn't have known what lovers to pull
and there would have been people in the government saying hold on, let's figure out what believe,
way to go about this is, and what is least likely to get struck down by the interesting thing on on homelessness is that somebody in the White House went and found a guy who, like does in fact, work on homelessness policy and, like met an egg met somebody who's work. You know
I like, or experts who, I know, think raccoon rife pulling. It really does do. The psyche has been working on homeless, as for your area in broadly speaking, agrees with trumps. Cranky takes a gas and there, like gonna, bring a man to do things right and that's what I think in twenty seventeen, in particular, you often didn't have right was like ok, someone know has
go through the rolodex and not fine, like the top, but guy in the Republican Party list, but a guy who's plausible enough. But who also is basically on board when trot
but that's the thing I want to revise. Might my first interesting or surprising thing is that we be talking a lot over the course of this year, podcast about how their scope, Donald Trump and the trunk administration,
a large areas, are two different things and from when there's something that Travel Administration, big will get back to you, I'm just going to keep on doing what we would do and pretty a standard republic.
The ministrations. I think now we're starting to see that line blur entirely where it's kind of an oh. This is dollar trumps, Trump Administration and we're seeing that in foreign policy or seeing that under mystic issues- and it's interesting though, because you you see so many times the administration attempting the parts things out as if they did not originate the way they
so, for instance, the administration deciding like. Oh, we care deeply about Baltimore, unlike no, you just wanted to yell
the late Eliza Cummings on Twitter and new, as the daily based has reported. All of the alleged efforts that we're going to take place in Baltimore have resulted in nothing. Nothing has happened, but it is interesting to see that, like the administration, kind of does is weird clean up and now that, like
the interests of the administration and the person heading. The administration are now becoming one
We should mention impeachment get in this regard right. I was surprised that the impeachment didn't come for what we thought impeachment will come for out. Yes, but I remain, but I mean people is an example of exactly where you were just talking by their Jane right right
Initially, it was like Trump had this view of Ukraine and the Trump Administrations Ukraine policy, with something else entirely.
and there were efforts made by like the people who went disciplines is now your agent to come back and tell Trump no. No. No. This dude is for real rattling, but, like fundamentally, Trumbull was eventually able to like turn the truck in the direction he want.
Dare I mean to your point in this case he didn't quite new
hold down the like. How do we do it legally records interest?
is that you know Senate Republicans, coalition
Publicans, obviously decided at the end of the day that, like they're going, I think pretty clearly. They wish this had happened, but, like they're gonna get on board with it represents it is what it is right and that's the process by which the whole phenomenon you were told. My dad like takes place right leg. It is now clear retroactively, at least that, like the congressional Republicans want Donald Trump appointees to do what Trump tells them, even when what trumpets telling them is like off bounds for what Republicans and tradition
Lee espouses as their policy goal submitted is a much you know, firmer, more formal imprimatur when like this, could have on the other way to be like now. Look like John Bolton, and these other guys like embody authentic conservative public policy values when Trump breaks the law to subvert. Like we teamed up with Democrats, say no, you can't do this right, but it is interesting how kind of the concept of what Republicans, with tradition
do has changed. I just keep thinking as we enter twenty twenty, that we are now forty years removed from the election of Ronald Reagan, around Reagan among conservatives Yo
its interests. It you see, I think it was is, can catch in
what is his role now heading on which website you look at he's, acting director of? U S, citizenship in immigration, services and
or acting deputy director,
you're up deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland
it was interesting to see I tweet that he tweeted after the horrible attacks in New York against an orthodox celebration of Hanukkah. He treated something about like how the person who committed its
Parents were allowed to come in on it like a nineteen eighties immigration legalised under the nineteen. Eighty six reckon amnesty right, exactly which others said. Tweet was since deleted. He s not clear whether it was that was inaccurate or whether he realized he might have run a fellow, the privacy actors or at the many things, but just the idea. It's interesting. How much you conservatism has long prides itself on its basis on tradition and come you're standing athwart progress, yelling stop, but the Republican Party is
and you think, that's fine whatever it is it I'm sure you'll be fine. Ok, no matter what you don't prized year, though of a this, is totally different, but like what's shock to me across twenty nineteen is people.
Judge right. Remember like we
He was on the weeds you as the wise advice areas like first media plus yet, and I went on, I think the smartest strategic move, anyone's maintenance, pray work study, and I don't I don't like when he was booked too to come on to show its up. I support something that was at the end of a process where, like we were trying to get like a lot of presidential get. Yes, I'm sure he was p and an alien Castro work with the guys who said yes,
which responded them reflected by them. I thought it was a good interview. You know, like I came away from that episode. Definitely like thinking better of him, but you know the day before we did that show. I was like what are we doing like the mayor of South Bend, Indiana
after the show. I was like that's a smart guy, but I wasn't like now. It makes sense to me that the mayors have been Deanna is, can be a major presidential contender and you know he's he's, probably not going to win, but the his ability to get ahead of all these other people in the polls to turn himself into this.
donor juggernaut like it's it's mine bowing to me, and I hope everyone takes away the lesson that more politicians should come on. We that's the only last night
from this entire thing is our politicians should come on this year broadcast. Somebody is where we re. No, I mean it is very strange at the same time, thinking back to the lake Twenty sixth,
Republican Convention nomination process, the twenty twelve republican nomination process. To a certain extent. Twenty eight on the democratic side like v, there's been a real correlation
between kind of business and news generating and like a real shift in the polls. We ve seen that, to a certain extent with beauty judge, but at the same time, job
and to a lesser extent, Bernie Sanders have generated less news and buzz and like X, you know capital IE, like excitement from the people,
generate buzzing knew, then the cheer of candidates below them, and they still remain like Biden, remains the unquestioned front. Runner and Sanders remains. You know and unquestioned talk to your candidate in so it's been in,
sting to see that that kind of that, unlike
say. Twenty sixteen, where you know Jab Bush in
when a front runner was real,
losing support. Guyana handed it started, getting more buzz. That hasn't happened right violence. I grant you just what what's pinewood striking to me about Buddha judges that here you look it done
from one or some ailing, Andrew Yank, we're not gonna win but like the wheels in that guy's, who did not have like traditional presidential Reza me is we're. Getting a lot of attention was that they had distinctive message. Sprite aware is beneficial message which, like it strikes me as a fine message, because I'm a kind of, but now tat crowd, but like it's not like.
I couldn't like describe to you. What like a peep Buddha Judge Democrat is that's like so striking an amazingly different, and it's like this is why people are running to the sky. Was I to me, like the take away of tromp is pretty clearly that had some
like more conventional presidential, aspirant, like gone as a hard anti immigration candidate
like the other eye, allows obligatory analyzing what Donald Trump always overstated his own uniqueness in that regard in that, too, was key to his support, because you successfully persuading people that they hadn't been hearing things. They had in fact been hearing another forms right yet any separately, but I mean he he won't you,
Mr fighters, like what was two hundred troops saying and remain Donald Trump have to offer that other people did not. You know it's like the hats. The wall like with like we all get their wares like butter judge higher no good at it needs more. Hats is that we are saying that the net seems like the answer here, but it is interesting also that so much of the presidential rate I have
and cut of surprised by how much of it seems, talked about, but a judge who talk a little bit about senders and obviously Biden, but it is interesting to me how much it when the year began. I think a lot of people were lake calmly, Harris YO others with Warren who did not have a rise. It's interesting look as even the way we talk about this lake. There's the
sure pulling, which has been like Biden Bernie Warrant for six months, or something of my arm was in second place here about five weeks write her advantages, it become it. I think it's become very much apparent how much kind of like the? U I'm interested party me without this experiment of like what would happen if we did the presidential primary without any media coverage whatsoever.
We did this like they do. Election will be hard for people to learn about the candle yeah. I just never. Coverage of no beggars mean how much media.
Its revenge is better with things be. If none of us has jobs, ask statement, I could take care of your cat
Everything would be flouted. Levels could afford to take care of my cat. It would be interesting. Ok if all political journalism had to be just coverage of the government,
and they tried to go into the voting booth and you would be confronted by surprise.
The names of a variety of politicians and then just based on what you have heard about them in their capacity as senators or governors or whatever you decide
when you like rakers, although in practice that which has been former vice president's. Yet there are always win because people remember there now, he said. I think that the degree to which the Elect ability question, which I think is largely determined by a kind of there, is a piece of your times a couple of weeks ago. About kind of that centrist bias we're just kind of like where a lot of times, journalists- and I do this myself- are just kind of equal. That sounds
crazy, so that won't work people that that's why I think that certain candidates have been underestimated in certain. Can its movement overestimated, but it is interesting to think how much of this race is dependent on like I like him, but I don't like other people like him,
That's something that surprised or no matter where they are well. That's your predictions, lightning,
Jeanne who's gonna be the democratic nominee. This is Bay Lightner. This is based purely on, like I think, would be interesting to observe Bernie Sanders
the cat die tat have been persuaded that it's not gonna, be Joe Biden. Yeah, it's Gimme, Joe Biden, he's a hidden, the ball
How do I get it?
but this Anders dissenters, Trump debates would be both much better. Tell him
Jane and arguably like a better event for police,
good education, bright from Biden, debates, which I am already dreading rank debates, Serbia Master Class in transcribed,
What did they know, but I think that the number eight year when I talk to conservatives are like, while the Democrats would never let Bernie be the nominated, but but what if they did, they won't, but what? If they did it so now,
just become like I'm just curious to see what would happen here, which I feel it is a very strange thing to think about, like the politics of my own country, that I'm just sort of like, let's put those new guy,
the quarterback adjust, see what happens, but
but I was, as you were, prediction that advocates that not, but I think that is both. I am pretty deep dead. Vacating, ok, predict advocated
leaning over the fitful, it's ok. This is the kind of another way to look at things toward the end of it.
Or water. What is something that lake? You know? I think all of us-
and you have our particular drums to be- and this is the last year to do that for twenty nineteen. What is the thing that people didn't pay attention do that they should have paid attention to? I think that's something I did not pay attention to and want to pay more attention to is kind of the. What a large sums it when I'm talking to about Republicans and conservatives- I admitted I m talking about Republicans conservatives who are inlaid republican conservative media, and I think that that really misses a lot of times like who you're one of the biggest lessons of twenty. Sixteen is that a lot of kind of high level,
conservatives who get paid to be conservative were like this is what conservatism is and voters were? Actually we don't care about any of that at all, and I think that
we are seeing now, where it with looking at how specific things pool
the community is that what from Obama Tromp or yet what we ve seen in some ill down ballot races is just how much you can have
in June the manufacturing, changes and kind of just economic changes have impacted how people think about politics and the rise of populism or the re rise of populism, because I will not let people forget about William, Jennings Brian. I think that that something I missed a little bit where I was ill. I'm interested in this ethic PETE Republicans referring to pick up on this, which is why our seeing a lot of messaging changes in terms of how people are talking about the use of the government
but I think that you, how people how that started is something I wish I had picked up on more the: U S
successfully, extraterritorial Ized its image, its asylum policy, like basically no one who
comes to the. U S without papers be through the southern border is out eligible for asylum.
Many of them are necessarily are going to be. I either sent back to Mexico indefinitely or sent back or sent to increasingly
countries permanently and no one really noticed because it wasn't happening on: U S, island and government. I would you say more broadly, like I feel, and I feel very frustrated by
but that there is not nearly enough attention paid to the things that the Trumpet administration dots
right right when he was your written eloquently versus things that Donald Trump says right, or do the things that Donald Trump is felt to signify right, and that is what your heart
about their at the border. I mean is a key example of it where you know the the proverbial kids in cages,
was a thing that happened at least I'm right, unlike a lot of sort of trump controversies that they took up more
but it became very much. You know a symbol and then
when the symbol was kind of, remove this very little attention to the policy and an wedding
means, then you have whole areas of policy that I occasionally cover like bank regulation and like Don climate aspects of environmental protection. Where there's like nothing, you know it's it's
islands. There was a great story and the New York Times on Monday, and it was about like how they ve written the international tax
regulations to create like a much bigger tax windfall for four big corporations, then
People would initially envisioned, and I mean good
on them for writing it, and you know unfortunate, I think, to have come out in the like holiday dead weak, but I feel like that, like big picture, editorial decision to drop a story like that in the interests of eight dead week is like
matic sort of where we are as a as a country that likes
or about like here, huge policy changes. You haven't heard about our kind of like
who cares versus like you know, here's a wacky anecdote about Trump, not knowing where light bulbs were
is like here and now I can do, and this is actually something that I hope dies: a terrible death in twenty twenty, like the aid, the fact that a lot of really really good slow, burning,
eleven gets published in December and specifically in the last two weeks of December, is attributable to politics
lines as much as anything else, and it really. It is the time of year.
People are literally least likely to read serious journalism and when the most of it gets publish and its unacceptable and needs to change yes, outbreak
wait, but just like, as a
no like people.
who are reduced.
Students minded people who, in journalism, like everybody, has to try to like cut the shit together. I think and focus on unreal things rather than on their kind of like got level
cringe at trade, and I think that there is. I think that there is a criticism you see this cut off from the right that, like oh yeah, you just used oppose you or people who opposed trap just opposes style like oh. I wish I didn't. Tweet is much. Why am I here? I think that for many people met you ve written on this. As I mentioned, the idea of what this administration has actually done, specifically in the back and forth between a one, evangelical, publication and town Hall COM, a conservative website over you, trumps impeachment, there's loved me, look, ok, what has dropped done and I think that there is kind of the can
pro trump interpretation of like he's not at all these judges. Who will do things that we want them to do that won't do things we don't want them to do, but I do think that the agent like no, we are now far past. The idea of trump like we have gotten
pass the leg driver with again twenty seventeen, whether all those fake twitter accounts that we're lake Rogue,
waiter staff murmuring like we're. We're pass that, like we ve gotten into like this, is actually this has already happened. This is actually happened. Here's what is happening! I think that's
important focus on and you know I mean it's gonna be a real passion and back to TAT Darwin and the asylum right. It's like
Is the new administration going to like invite people back in to apply
for asylum ray, I guess there's there has recently been the case, or are they going to quietly kind of pocket? The win that Trump did the dirty work on and now make sure they don't have an asylum problem on the southern border ray I mean. I think that there is definitely there are going to be conversations probably with in the Democratic Party and progressives about how to read.
old. What has been it? Take it if it has been changed under Trump, but I think there is also going to be an underwritten political fight over what should be changed, because the thing about making something the status quo is that it seems a lot less radical ray
right. I mean what is the status quo? You know it's it's the status quo in its it's gonna, easy enough right
I don't think any you know we have had several presidents now came into office with, like immigration
form goals, but it hasn't actually ever been. Anybody's goal to leg. Have more asylum seekers come?
right, like that's, that's one. There is also this in out. Changing things in this particular way opens people of two equivalent of the Willy Horton Effect, which is if you can be pegged as the person who,
Let someone in or let some one free and then a terrible thing happens, like the the fear of that amount.
Office holders is so strong still on criminal justice, stuff area after a decade, plus a bipartisan momentum, uncrown on criminal justice reform at the lake Abstract policy level, and it really has impeded the passage.
Of turning out into actual policy, and I think you know what
something similar happens, if you're looking at changing a more restrictive to a less restrictive immigration policy by means of a thousand people come right in point. One per cent of them do something horrible, like that's. That's up
Some. That's that's aversion, India, that's gonna, be a bad new cycle for you right now, there's been a big controversy about right, although I
one of the other things that lake- it's not like. We just learn this in twenty nineteen, but the extent to which the year doesn't go to the poorer. The cycle doesn't go to the person who Windsor loses the most new cycles like this.
Started with a partial government shut down that lasted in several weeks yet and no one
Talking about that is a big factor going into twenty twenty right, like the sum
definitely some things that you can make salient to your base or that you know are going to resonate particularly strongly with your basic at the cabinet. Confirmation fight was a really underrated
or should moment for bringing the lot of conservatives on the, but you can't actually make every
salient and as a result, some things that seem at the time like they arguably should be a major
During determining who gets to control the levers of government end up just because of timing falling by the wayside. Exactly like. I think that there is an idea that you can make something you can make. Voters be as mad about something as you purports to be.
And it turns out largely you cannot. Why me and you don't know what you dont know, whether or not them being mad will then pushed their opponents to be extra mad like with Cavanaugh. There is an argument to be made that Cavanaugh, YO activated conservative voters, but also activated
or who didn't like covers nomination to the Supreme Court, and then they all wound up with about bucks, but I've been unless it you think rate. It means timing is so important and party
but I guess on some level we probably always knew that, but they it's really been striking to me over the past several years, like how clearly that comes through the government, shutdowns, both the one that happened at the beginning of this year, but also the one they have been at the beginning of twenty fourteen, we're like catastrophic for the approval ratings of Republicans in both cases, who were seen as initiating it, but also they bounce back super quickly and
I'm totally on factors in the elections that that happened after their this Cavanaugh thing. You know it was. It was a big deal while the fight was ongoing, but right now we have kind of looming out there right.
There is probably no longer a protrude majority on the Supreme Court.
Clearly, if a five four ruling came down like two weeks before the election to the effect of abortion is now illegal in the intended states that will be
deal in politics, but even though everyone knows that, like the odds of of rolling along those lines, are not trivial at this point, it's it's a total, nothing empowered tried, but if it happens to be a huge deal, but then it might be nothing. Two months afterwards rightly gets it's weird. It's like people down
I don't know. I think this is the outlets in a rational way to assess play. Actor is right to be like this. Political party keeps doing irresponsible government shutdowns, but they tend to do it in January
he's. So I dont care like that's, that's not good will, and it means that
If you are going to activate people against a hypothetical you have to keep them at such a high level
of anxiety that they're not necessarily sensitive canoes events anyway, right lake people who there it's not like there, aren't a coterie of people who really are vital.
alt single issue, abortion voters in so far as they really really care about Supreme Court in they care about the Supreme Court because of abortion. It's that those people have the link. That is a single issue for that they have. You know that is a large part of their political
I think of their kind of agenda and identity is getting this
changed and not necessarily in a way that seems closer or further away. When did when various news events happened, like I don't think, there's
There are a whole lot of people who are going to not vote for Trump and twenty twenty. After voting framing twenty. Sixteen, if review weight is still standing behind of deep de pushes the poor,
writing. Similar is true on people who are, you know very.
Strongly in favour of gun, right, ready kind of the fact that Donald Trump it always has done.
Europe has done more on federal gun control. Arguably then his predecessor did is not
super you know, that's not necessarily affecting their views of things. There is. They are activated
the fear of someone grabbing their guns in the future and that
fear allows them to kind of look past a whole lot of other political behaviour. That fault comes shorter and then there are other things you know like. I will still here from people who say that they
had initially been optimistic about Barack Obama as a figure who would somehow like a band in racial grievance politics, but then he said
I had a son. He would look like Craven, like I'm still mad about that. Oh yeah, you know. Let me next year's later this fight, unlike nightmare, to endorse our work, but just to say where they get there, and I do think that, like there's a segment of the electorate who, however, you want to characterize them on the spectrum of racist, do not racist
they were not racist enough to vote for Barack Obama at one point. But also racist enough have like a strong, racially motivated tilt against Democrats after Obama's election and it really
It is true that space on a small number like things that happened but like a small,
number of that right that, like permanently shifted perceptions of like who Barack Obama was or even like what politics is about right like yes, you know like leg liquid. What, with the purpose of voting
is that, like you know, we attitudes Liquors National news stories about this now. Apparently fraudulent incident in which somebody, ETA Mcdonald's right, maybe wrote a mean note to a police officer right so like this, has become a huge political topic right, like both first for active as buggers matter actress looking for police reform, but now this again
huge amount of like pro cop identity, pilot right as a big force in America when, like that, like law and order,
politics had long existed, but like this particular thing, with thin blue line flags and like that school, quite new, it's
I mean thimble one. It's way that law enforcement has always viewed itself, that
is now becoming a Venus, something the people fielding who consider
self sympathetic to law enforcement feel the need to express as an explicit part of their politics. Martha part of this is that like police,
officers and fire men were in no have always been among the most broadly approved of professions in public opinion polls and suicide.
instead, the focus
policing and police reform that the black lives matter. Movement in crystallized
was taking something that was consensus and making it not a consensus anymore. So, there's backlash to that and I think the other
is that there is often been the perception,
the rank and file law enforcement that they are under, appreciated and necessary, and that is
That Mary is well with a certain with the
ravens mode of culture were all attacks exact and so, as conservatives have instead of hating the culture interns instead of kind of hating on grievance politics
to find ways in which they can they themselves can be eradicated as usual, using the reefs cracked data and do I like it cannibals
myself from a twenty seventeen individual citizens, not just the end of twenty nine June, but is the end of a decade. Progress as a guy. You
you said, I mentioned before the show, but it's like looking back. I got out of these ten years Fred.
if we are assuming you now historians, they gotta edit a lot of stuff out like what? What what from this time period like actually counted for something like what? What will be remembered? What deserves to be remembered? I think you have to say looking back on the market as a whole lake and this
As you know, in the first part of the decade, a lot of people had normalize the idea that that fights at the national political battles were going to be about the size of government for ever and ever aim at re like this comes back to something.
Jane was saying earlier in the absurd, but it really was. It was a bipartisan assumption that, like the question is
is the era of big big government over and we ve now move to weigh more com.
blockade, Ed political landscape, that arguably maps
or onto what voters
we cared about all along, which is who is government helping and who is government hurting, and are they the people that
I deem to be on my side ran, knocked and in writing
to a certain extent lake the people who looked at the tea party.
In twenty ten and said
This is not really about
believing in small government work there this. This is not what as benefiting people where one hundred percent correct, while
same time, the people who could who extended that creative to really the
weight of the pro business community is rights about it. Supremacy and racism have seen that the proposed community has like lost, as has lost a certain amount of kind of truck with poppies,
politics, if not necessarily with policymaking. So united people
a lot of critics of the Republican Party in the conservative movement turned out to be right, but for unexpected reasons, with the result that the at the national
oh politics, had to transform to better map on to what people actually cared about on the ground in a way that makes it seemed that is much less amenable to compromise
then just kind of moving they. This lighter on big government small government bright. I would say it's funny thinking about this time. In ten years ago, we were about five years removed from a big fight about whether to add a constitutional amendment
that would ban same sex marriage and we sea areas away from Barack Obama saying like he changed his mind on merit. Here we have,
hasn't. It is right now it is a myth
saying to me and I've brought this up a couple times this week. I know- and I am so grateful that the least important thing about PETE Buddha Judge is that he's gay and married to a man, but the fact that one he is getting married to a man he's married to him
and in a marriage, is recognised by the federal government, and I am also married, and that might look that that's not even I don't think I have. I think that is probably the biggest sea change in my lifetime to have taken place and the fact that its one that what we don't really think about her too
about that much, and that like people, you it's weird when people are like when you occasionally ceiling religious groups, yelling about gay marriage or like that, I'd odd thing to be mad about when it was like the New Maggie Gallagher, entire job to yell about game urge this time ten years ago, and it is wild to me that that is taken.
This is absolutely wild to mean more so than I think movement on marijuana legalization more and more
I think, the it's. The sea change on marriage equality, a concept that, when I was a junior singer in high school, was like on a manageable and already oh, I think Ohio had passed. Laws get like there have been numerous laws passed against it
and then it just sort of a girl, like you owe the Mai. These friends are getting married, but today or something like these well known, women soccer players got married this week, empty, really wow what a beautiful wedding and was highlighted in people Magazine
and it just like over the normalization and ice. I feel it whenever people say normalization. It means it's a bad thing, but I actually think it's a fucking awesome thing, but it is wild to me that that has taken place why
old. So I synthesize these points are her appeal. Abusing the decade timeframe go back fifteen years to the winter of two thousand for two thousand and four,
The conversation in Washington that winter was dominated by two questions. One was purging: has car robes idea of doing ballad initiatives around constitutional amendments to being gay marriage? Was that, like a political leg like death blow to Democrats that they had to like?
somehow like Scylla more right. The Democrats were not advocating for marriage equality, but they were. They were plenty cutesy game with it and like did they do they need to ditch that than the other was bushes. Social security, privatisation, pie and didn't Democrats, maybe need to you know, come to the table with something acknowledge the significance of addressing the crisis right. Then you fight for five years from the right to ten years ago. By that time I think,
Clear that, like Democrats, we're not going to be permanently locked out of office by the marriage equality but, as Jean was saying, I mean that remained like a cutting edge, promote thing and, as there was saying like the deep political stakes right, whether or not this was,
We motivating tea party was all about. Ok now that Obama got his little healthcare bell like. How are we going to reduce the deficit to big cuts to launder entitlement programmes right?
If you establish contacts I mean we're tongue met historians ride. So it's it really is like. If you need to incorporate Trump into a narrative arc, you see that
egg behind this, like surge of right wing populism or whatever is like an incredible diminution of the conservative movements. Like substantive ambitions,
down to like being mean to asylum seekers at some other things right and its other. Nothing is happening on the ground on these other,
policy areas but like they are really shrinking like what they are about. You know, too, just something:
smaller and, like I think,
in some ways like more small minded but like
in reality, like the given ground on like really important issue. Anything
One of the things to look out for an email. The next like the next decade, is
feels the need to kind of fortress that, if we take for granted that the that this is that the kind of Tribal s foot unquote,
Politics is what a certain number of voters actually why'd you still one of the purpose of
things that a movement does is take people's often under in for
and sometimes like actually bigoted views and create
an ideological, logical superstructure. That is more. You know that there can be some.
That can be discussed in more neutral terms, that you can create compromises on and so
whether the weather and who said
into the whether anyone, and, if so, who steps into fill that role and like build up what a government that helps us and doesn't help them looks like
egg or whether the kind of the conservatives
is for owning. The lips idea takes hold among the very elites who would
really be in the position of saying? Well, here's what these people really want. Re end. You know a building policy agenda. We should surely time from that. Some more expansive predict
sorry. I am just just democratic nomination, whether with but does the year, which is the your whole dame are the lives gonna beyond I mean probably a few times and then,
Conservatives will also be owned. A wall beyond. Perhaps that's it like we're all just going to get owned that'll, be it that's twenty twenty four. What does that mean? This is the weeds either
explain yourself. I I think that twenty twenty it's interesting, because I think that you, I think that there are going to be many moments this year in which people are extraordinarily upset and then in about a month they can't forget why their upset and then, when you look back to the months before it feels if it happened in the Mesozoic. I say: that's that's gonna Bela of twenty twenty just ownership, but then color forgetting about it. I am. I also think that twenty twenty, I hope, will feature some efforts by people who are smart to recognise that politics and the people who are within politics is super complicated and to take it very like end to stop saying
I hope that twenty twenty zero restart stop saying things like leader in the black community, as if we all have meetings or maybe twenty twenty year, which we finally are having those meetings, because I would go, but I think also yo. I I think twenty twenty will see the end if we work based on you know that the the bad things that they have.
had happened, and also the end to the ceo of we work advising Jared cushioned or about the Middle EAST, which is a real weird thing that actually happened
and I think twenty twenty will also see a lot of weird takes about the nineteen twenties that will annoy me. I think that that's another thing that takes about the nineteen twenty said will annoy you we're done it p.
Going to talk about an waiting for twenty four democratic national convention. We were wrong about it on the internet, I'm gonna be upset, that's what I predict actually do have one word democratic, nomination production, which is that, in accordance with the inadequacy of Monterrey, that personnel policy democratic candidates are going to start show
up there coalition will support by naming particular potential cabinet members and potential vice presidents a-
phenomenon that will include at least one new cycle of a candidate getting owned because
someone they mentioned, as a potential cabinet member was not contacted and didn't and does not in fact support them for president. I think that
going to have a
few more, not quite Ukraine style, but a few more incidents in which the
in which you s policy toward a country that not a lot of people. Not a hundred people are the domestic side we're paying attention to suddenly become
super duper important for the council for the purposes of the
Administration. I would not
Venezuela, which has been kind of the dog that didn't buy it as a potential thing to look,
for you know what that's going to
I also think we're going to hear some. I I think,
and hear some more about Eric? Prince has been? One of the figures is shown up,
a lot of ways, but hasn't yet catacombs
role in this administration, and I think one
those ball at one of those shoes will finally drop in twenty twenty billion mackadoo. What one? That's a methodology, twenty four democratic primary joke for those in the now he saw. I think that this year, coming forward, you know we're gonna start to see. I don't know how much this will impact politics overtly, but I think we're gonna really start to see
the impact of low unemployment changing how the world works in ways that people who don't remember
the ninety. Ninety is are going to find some pricing that you know it's going to become a world in which
the ability to attract and retain personnel is like a key differentiate her for it
says, and like every your skill that effective managers need to have
in a way that hasn't been the case for a long time and there's gonna be a I mean it.
like any change like it's gonna, wanna, critical problems for some people, but
I think it's gonna be a really like a really good thing for a lot of people's lives and cost.
for politics, I am awaiting a tough one for Democrats is gonna be like how do they acknowledge the benefits of progress on the labour market? Without you know just like
even trump his his when I think there are ways to do that, but I think that we are Democrats are at right now. Is it s kind of like say that nothing good is really changing, and I think that's gonna be increasingly
untenable you see, people subjective assessments of the economy have gotten really quite good. So it's not just a question of like you know, I'm throw some charts at you and telling you things are better than you think, like people think things are better than Democrats are saying and they're gonna have to come up with a way to deal with that
Molly. We certainly know that people subjective assessments of how good the economy is also has something to do with how they feel about who is running the government once you ve gotten behind that. It's gonna: it's a lot harder to tell people. The economy is worse than you think it is once they have kind of developed in a
in the end, they were clearly like peep
who say the economy is doing well, is a much larger share of the population than people who say Donald Trump.
good president. So, like yes, like you're, a deuce, always gonna be a thing. We're like the incumbent president's fans, you don't like it, but were clearly anything we're bureau, like whatever the net men like the middle, when a centrist sense, but like the the contested portion of the electoral year, has like relatively upbeat assessment of how things are
Ended and with that lovely two thousand and nineteen, I have a happy new year, everybody out in the audience that always enjoy at the weeds Facebook Group make your new year's resolution to spend more time with amending the weeds to your friends and buying products from all their sponsors.
important for everyone to do. Thanks to Jeff held for coming in a straight from from airport HAWK day to record us here, and that we back on Friday.
Transcript generated on 2021-09-10.