« The Weeds

About last night

2018-11-07

Sarah, Ezra, and Matt break down seven key takeaways from Tuesday's election. References and further reading: Ezra’s piece on Trump’s failing political strategy Ezra’s essay on William Kristol’s 1993 health memo 

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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Guys do it alone, bosoms another episode of the weeds on the box media podcast network. I Matthew glaziers here with Sir Cliff as recline. It's been about twenty four hours since we last podcasting fig twenty four hours that the political world is on its head. I voted many others voted it was while the allowed happened, so we want to try to absorb run through this dinner and a slightly disciplined way. What the consequences are, since I expect will be talking loosely for four weeks about these midterms but first officer Ezra a you write a piece last night provocatively saying Republicans are paying a hefty trump tax. What is it
citizens go through this or we should say that the result as they stand now and we don't have everything finalized it. But Democrats, you gonna, take back the house with a round. The thirty see pick up Republicans economic gain. A couple seats in the Senate and they can look at this as as a mixed result, but I dont think one should so what you have, here. Is Democrats winning what looks at this point to be somewhere between a seventy eight percentage point popular vote, victory and the house vote. that is one of the biggest way victories we ve ever seen. Now, it's not gonna transit into one of the biggest house pick up groups it we ve ever seen because of gerrymandering because which Jago Fee, but this is bigger than what the publicans had and the vote in twenty can when there is a huge recession. It is illogical What we saw in twenty four keen and its come amidst unemployment at three point, seven percent an economy, its growing consumer confidence, is really high. So we're in this period right now
where all of the external conditions suggested Donald Trump should be a quite popular president and republican should be enjoying a real boost from the economy, and yet there forming like an unpopular majority that is dealing with a recession or if you go back to other big points, I think, like oh eight or two thousand and six a very unpopular war, and that to a way in which Donald Trump political strategy, I think, is really failing in a way that the media trouble admitting his political rights was so unexpected that there is difficulty just saying that is actually, at the same time, that sort of a political genius he's quite bad politics. Belgium should not have been unable to crack fifty percent in approval with an economy like us, I gotcha shouldn't have happened and Republican shouldn't have results like this. With an economy like us out also shouldn't have happened. The Trump tax refers to something we looked at going back to twenty. Sixteen, where we used political science models to say. Well, what should we expect the outcome of the election,
and then the models when you average it about said, while the Republican Paul, gonna, wind fifty point: nine percent of the two party vote share in twenty sixteen and way under performed that and so that I was called it. The Trump taxing that was a Republicans repaying fur for nominating Donald Trump, and I thank in here. This trump tax get a lot bigger. I think the difference between what we could have expected Republic to do under these conditions with a president who is running a more popular political strategy and what they did is very directly attributable to double jumps political decisions in the way he kept his opposition mobilized, as opposed to being able to unify people around pretty strong economy, performance you I mean, although one thing that, I wonder, is how much are we looking at a Trump tax forces, how much oil looking at a I don't want. You would call it like up like Paul Ryan tax like it fell to me, like Republicans, lowest moments, in the polls came not because Donald Trump
tweeting about a caravan but like when they were trying to enact very, very, very unpopular rules, and I think it matters because, like going forward a consequence of Democrats having house majority, is it they're not going to be moving major legislation anymore? It's hard to imagine politics becoming more dominated by people talking about things Donald Trump says, but like that's, gonna, loom, like even larger, in the political landscape over the next eighteen months with, even less attention spent, unlike actual policy making in the government and I wonder if that wall to an extent, redress sum of Republicans political problems. yeah. I guess I wonder how we think about the Trump tax. As you know, is it particularly something about? Having trumpets President is also about decisions candidate? themselves kind of me. Did you know round how they wanted to run on the economy or run on the caravan? That aid is not just the press,
and you know having that kind of folks. but also seeing veto a number of races, I think some of those actually being successful like we're sing like some unlike Steve King reelected, which either he he is someone who is running an agenda that is very strongly in the trunk in vain? I think it trusting to me that a number of Republicans decided to follow the president's lead on this, and I dont know if there will be a rethinking of that. You know: come twenty twenty, but that a kind of extended out into the party mutawa on a lot of France, but with to me, as is an interesting space, and all this where then media and were doing this right now always wants to Paul like a verdict like some kind of popular message out of election result and Miss terms- are really particularly bad for this, because, as you say, sir, you have a four hundred and thirty five different house races, and you have you no thirty, some Senate races and governance,
racism, is gerrymandering and geography and which states Robin which states are up and like the particular dynamics of kings district, really. Why focus, I think, you're looking a message, you need to be looking at the House popular vote too, and that is the closest we are going to come to some uneconomical. make us. It is look at Paul whose which probably tell you this with a little bit more accuracy about what the public really believes, but in terms of them the house your vote you're getting elections held across the entire country, although obviously not all the more competitive, not all them or even contested and you're. Getting like a measure you can actually look at sea swings verses, other elections in other years. I just, I really think that it being so big you, no seventeen April It points in a time of prosperity. the time when there's not a huge war, sending home hundreds or thousands of Americans in body bags. It's any fuel, and I think we need to figure out why it so unusual and and and take us seriously now I do take the point that we are maybe its power
its agenda right. Suddenly, I think it's the mix of Paul Ryan's agenda and Donald Trump Approach to politics. In a port the agenda is incredibly unpopular and Donald Trump Approach to politics is incredibly mobilizing for his political opposition and a lot of trouble pulling those things apart. Now, whether or not at this point you call runs agenda like Donald Trump sort of his backing to there, There is always a question about how much credit and blame we give President's for back the parties, congressional agendas and and for the economy, the happens under their watch and all the rest of it. So I am very sympathetic to that point Matt, but I also think that it is time it nevertheless to say like like Donald Trump is not like a political genius here, he's not running ahead of what you would expect somebody in his position to be doing he's run well behind it, and I think the fact that his rise was so unexpected and the media felt so taken by surprise by his win in twenty sixteen.
In slates him from the normal judgments president governing and producing these results. Under these conditions we get so now I want to paragraph two it to a second take away here, right, which is an area where Trump, I think, did outperform normal expectations, and that was in that sense. It is extremely rare for an incumbent senator from the Non White House Party to lose in a real action bed. It happen to MAX Cleveland in two thousand to has not happened since then, despite a lot of political turmoil of it didn't happen at all throughout the eighties or ninety is, but it appears that at least three and possibly as many as five incumbent democratic Senators well have gone down, and this is a thing that Donald Trump really poured himself into right is a very short of a trump like thing too,
cast aside these decades of accumulated conventional wisdom that that's not a realistic goal to him. He didn't really try to save incumbent House Republicans, which is the normal thing, the how we try to do and that he really went after is incumbent Senate Democrats. He did tons of rallies in their states really ratchet up the heat on them. He treated his nomination of a very unpopular Supreme Court justice as a political win for himself, because it put red state Democrats in an awkward position, and it worked, you know, and you can say like look. This is a suit hang field, which it obvious that was that the map was terrible for Democrats, but in its, consequences from going from a world in which he had fifty one Senate seeds, and two of them were held by LISA Cowskin Susan Collins and two of them were held by Jeff flacon Bob Corker, so he always had to China Watch
back about everything to broaden which he's gonna have a wheel governing majority, not for legislation, but for nominations right now. If Donald Trump wants to fire Jeff sessions and make critical batch attorney General like nobody's, gonna stop him from whatever he wants to do in terms of his control of the executive and it seems to me that from thumps point of view, that that is a big win, you mean like is the basis of his kind of social media. Bragging like this was the goal he set for himself. He hit his goal as gonna give him or degrees of freedom to control the executive branch, which is very important, So one thing like someone was saying earlier, but everything columbines together at this point after a state, but that a you know it seems like the legislative agenda, will mostly be stalled for the next two years with divided government There is very little chance of seeing like major legislation.
forward. On the other hand, like, I, would expect a very very active sent in the nomination space. Exactly because of the things that is outlining and that you don't matters a huge huge amount for uniform a lot of the structure issues and american politics from gerrymandering campaign finance to you. Don't how how different legislative accomplishment like the affordable care act are going to be treated in the next few years? And you know, so we're looking at nominations. There is certainly a possibility of having Supreme Court nomination, if you know, God forbid, something happens to under the justices end even lower down looking at appeals of all or even district level court. Those court appointments matter a lot and they ve. Definitely you know President Trump, done a very good job of repopulating region. Surely with more right, leaning judges. I think President trembling rightly so, is looking at. This is a big victory, because there is
much. You can do through the nomination process, and that gets a lot easier when you have the wiggle room of a few, more senators on your side. It isn't going to be down to this like one vote. Every time like we saw with the cavern hearings or be more space to lose those folks and still move these nomination. for it is a real chance. I mean a couple raises- are still outstanding in Montana Arizona, but there's a real chance. The Democrats are gonna, dig themselves into a Senate hole that they can't realistically climb out of in twenty twenty and there's just no foreseeable future reality in which Democrats have a governing majority to do it. Thing so you know that's a big deal. That's a huge part of all this, but let me say couplings on this, one is I think we're looking at a broader trend here than Donald trump me when you, when you talk about the sort of opposition party senator running an indeterminate election. I who are talking about here, is
ways in which polarization is cobbling Senate candidates, house candidates to presidential candidates into state level dynamics. Hi Donald Trump, something we didn't know is happening is states are becoming much more use. I'd in there in their party control. We know that this becoming a much more type correlation between how people vote for their member of the Senate, how they vote the member, the house and how they vote for president, and so you don't wanna things which are really did try to do in this election. Is he tried to run a polarization strategy? try to run a strategy that was activating his people as much as possible at the cost of activating Democrats as much as possible. in the Senate because of the map really favoured his base rate. The map was very tilted towards states that that that he did better in Anderson General, the Senate Map is tilted. Hordes Republicans, the average state is six points more republican than that the country as a whole. That sort of
You know, I don't think you need to reach super far. Do it like understand how Republicans want to send it to you in North Dakota or Indiana, but it it nevertheless, the case that that those are important wins for them, but like the cost of that, the cost of a high pole, Station strategy was because the country as a whole is like not publican, and the country as a whole is not happy with Donald Trump that it activated. Damn so aggressively there were even able to overcome their, gerrymandering and geography, disadvantage to to win the house outright and I'm You remember a couple years ago writing about how like there's no way Democrats are gonna, take back the house until well until the twenty twenties, given what the map looked like for them, so they like You need to see that is almost more than equal in an opposite achievement in our homes, ready. I recognise Adult Europe has taken a victory lop on this. I just wonder if this is a case of the old one. Stem just having been wrong now for some time, and you know we're just bridges seeing it in this election, because the map happened to line up with very there
Very polarized lux now comes in very, very polarized, nationalized electoral strategies, ok and point three we talk about how this was a kind of rough night for the left, because other, This was an interesting sub theme of the of the election results. Yeah, I mean I think it's important to define terms right, because I am old enough to remember when the divide in the party was between, like blue dog centrists Democrats and, like normal liberal Democrats, and I felt this was a good night for, like normal liberal Democrats, who won in lots of seats while having totally normal democratic party views. but I think, like the new insurgent laughed did quite poorly. They were at a number of races. There was that the one at carries men in Nebraska. There was a Pennsylvania one House Ways: California, forty five, I worship of insurgent left Democrats had one contested primaries in
like Gimme seats but meaningfully contested races, and they came up short that Andrew Guillaume, who looked like he was, can be a big progressive superstar who had a Bernie Sanders endorsement and his primary. He came up short, gab some aggressive, left wing ballot. Initiatives on climate change in Washington and on rent control in California it came up short moderate republican governors in the northeast got real, dead easily and there a strong political backlash to Donald Trump and in favour of Democrats, but like not a country that was secretly yearning for social is of gas that is a fair take away. You know, especially when you look at these southern race, as there are getting a lot of attention and zero in Georgia in Texas in Florida, where you're seeing that kind of success that some people were
for even while, on the one hand, it does feeling quite a reach to be electing a democratic senator from from Texas you on the other. This is where a lot of people were really energized and use a lot of money can flowing into these. These races, because of people being excited about flipping someplace like Texas, Blue. and I'm curious how this kind of shapes thinking for twenty twenty kind of where you do. People are directing them sources as we're saying you know we're also seeing at the same time, this kind of rule of law Democrats in the Senate from you know, folks, like Claremont, school, a new kind of wonder if you know the party had been very brief. If there. more excitement about sending the money that was going out to beta in over the Missouri and Mc Caskey colic if you would have seen something different there or not. I don't quite know but it am. I think it sets up kind of like an interesting
now, I'm back in four twenty twenty and how people are thinking about what space they want to live and on the left. One of the things that I think is notable here is well first, I think you need to adjust the little bit for which election Looking at United Sailing a Democrat, winning a Texas Senate seat was a real reach and I think better, coming as closer there is a real, is real achievement. But if you look we're Democrats were in close races or where they may be upset and incumbent. Elopement unexpectedly, those candy it's for not the candidates that the left was excited about. Looking at their bellwether candidates, him in an example. This is Katy Porter in, California Orange Connection, my in the district, I grew up in I've dispenser tumblr she's more like Elizabeth Warren than any politician, I've ever met of my life she's, a direct protegee of Elizabeth warrants issues as before and student, toxic Warren. She, like hasn't seen vibe, that populist energy and issues are really really energetic and tat the candidate, but that was a pretty
winnable racing its meaning Walter's. It's a kind of racial Democrats were winning last night and kitty. dinner when it, and you saw that across a pretty wide range- and I think something it reflects Here- is that a lot of Democrats have looked at an entire people on the left, have looked at the right over the past couple of years and said we should do that like we should do it there. doing, which is run more intense based mobilizing candidates who come out and exciting ball with a more hardline agenda like that in a poem The error is the path to success, I think you're, seeing a little bit that that's not true, really on either side. Republicans could have much much much bigger priorities, and they do. They were not spending down some of the geographic and gerrymandering advantage. They have both in it in the house, with gerrymandering and with geography and the Senate. on running more unpopular candidates on a more popular agenda. If republicans were had been like a more moderate party, they will just be fairing a lot better, probably across a bunch of political dimension
Now they would not be getting some things. I want to get done done so right, there's a trade off there. On the other side, the thing for Democrats is it, it's not symmetric. They are not facing. The same issue were public are in the same field. Republicans are Democrats face a huge disadvantage. You graphic in house. They face a huge disadvantaged graphic in the Senate and they pay some disadvantage because electoral college, at the presidential level and so for them to be as competitive as they have in recent years, has relied on them adjusting a bit more towards districts and states that disfavour them, while applicants have been like spending down a little bit of a cushion. They have and states favour them on ideology and I just to give you saw little, but that coming out last night, but do want to say in all. The other thing is that the different races look different and the different ideas. I think of what a left candidacies should
me in ass- a kind of vary from place to be added a thriving shared brown do quite well and Ohio where he can do to rise above a sort of ripening tied in the state right, and I think it's clue like he did, that by leaning into a kind of like a class conflict free right, and that is a sort of aid Talking point right is that, like Democrats would do better in these working class areas if they tried to make political conflict, be about class conflict Brown did that and that worked for him at the same time like part of what make share grounds for, though, is that he really really really dissociate himself from certain kinds of signal of like left meanness right so like you will never find shared brown calling himself a quote, unquote, socialist right or like going off the handle
on like denouncing american imperialism or I wouldn't, even though he is a very liberal, voting record right. Like he's a like a super grounded like really like Ohio, we person right and Democrats like they did mom Wisconsin, they do well in Michigan by running sort alike. like bland, MID westerners in plan with western states, and that that worked well for them and and you're quite progressive on a lot of issues. You know like, if you just kind of like rattling it down like what Looking for that, that's what they are, but they don't necessarily have the atmosphere acts of like a left wing activist from Brooklyn, because, like it isn't Brooklyn. You now is like the little bit of a banal point, but I do think it's important ready particularly when, when the law,
Skip, gets nationalism and you have all kinds of people. I know all kinds of people who live in New York or DC, unlike sort of got passionate about certain kinds of races and they get passionate about the candidates who speak too. I am personally, but obviously the candidates who do best are the ones who speak two districts that they are actually running in. You know, which is a different kind of thing, and you need to be I mean I think was Democrats. Look ahead to twenty twenty. This is gonna, be a dilemma. They face less about really policy and more about, like the soul. Like do you want a candidate who really truly speaks to the demographic that is most outraged by Donald Trump? Or do you want a candidate who speaks to the demographic that is most mixed in their feelings and want to win. It's probably number two. So let's move on to a care and the role like that played in in last night's election as it was pretty big
yeah yeah. So I think, like that, take away from me is that a standing in the house. Maturity is nuts and I think it is really telling and kind of studying that in order for some folks to win. Like I look at some unlike Josh Hollywood Missouri, they essentially had to lie about their position on the affordable care act that they had say they supported parts of affordable, correct that from we think we know from the record they don't actually support so you don't look at Obama here in the elections. I think in the short term, it essentially sobs repeal efforts in it in their tracks that, with Democrats now controlling how's, we're just not going to see that getting much traction so that kind of such that aside to twenty quantity. Unless I would say we have sat with this court ruling that I'm pretty much expecting come out sometime this week and
we end up in some kind of situation, that's unlikely but possible that the court's, essentially for some by repealing certain parts of Obamacare Force Congress to take some kind of action by the EU at the role played in the elections. It really is kind of stunning to me that, oh boy, My care lost. Democrats. The house in twenty tan ends to have won it back for them in twenty, a that in each short years, the politics of this issue up just totally flapped, In a way it, you know a kind of validates, what a lot of people were telling me when Obamacare PATH, This idea, that has to build a financial reserve, famous Nancy Blowsy quote, or I think, like Chuck Sumer. There is a quote from him about how it's going people are going to like it once they see. What's in it and you know that was half rate. I think benefits rolled out in twenty fourteen, it didn't get any more popular the thing that had to happen like the thing that turn this into a winning issue for Democrats is that the benefit
had to roll out and then Republicans had to threaten those benefits and then all of a sudden it was an issue that cared about is an issue. Democrats wanted run on Rita. We saw a lot of exit polls that healthcare was the most important issue. People were we're voting on, and it really does put Republicans and kind of a book, where you see someone like Josh Holly running on a platform protecting pre existing conditions, while he's also suing either the federal government you end those protections, it's weird world were living in, but the flip around the politics of a bombing here really feels like a huge one. Eighty over the past eight years, I think I speak to a lot of the interesting dynamics right now, when the things really struck me about the election. Is it for all the talk about Democrats, an identity politics Democrats ran a very normal democratic strategy in most House and Senate races were Republicans, ran a very heavy identity politics, somewhat abnormal strategy. To think that the report in closing argument was there is
revamp about a thousand people moving slowly across Central America. It will be here at some point in the future. A bunch of people will ask if they can. men for asylum and, if not like at all, like the leave or something- and that was the republican thing and the democratic thing, which could have been a thing it's marker Rubio. Could anything really at any point was Republicans when it take along cares, preexisting conditions, protections away, and really ran an election sort of like out of a normal political universe and China in the house. It appears to have largely worked, and that's interesting, and it also I think, speaks to some of the fears Republicans have long had. If you like way back to nineteen. Eighty four and the Clinton Healthcare Bill is very famous. memo from Bill Crystal who is now becoming said would never trouble a barrel, but back then was an aid had been an eight new king, rich men and business it of republican strategist, and he wrote this piece about the healthcare Bell too.
Up against a memo about what they should do and said. You can't pass it and you can't compromise with it, because if it happens it Never get taken away. There will never be a thing you can do about it and a bomb, a carrot of showing. Why, public into often treat these big social safety net programmes as sort of apocalyptic, because once third there they can best with em around the edges mean obviously Republicans have done what the sabotage Obamacare they took out. The individual mandate but they really are not able to up them and from here on out, what's gonna to happen is Obamacare's going, gonna be built, bigger and it's gonna be built better or its can be turned to some kind of Medicare for all its knocking go away and given the hence city of republican feeling against Obamacare. That is a huge geological defeat for them that not all Suddenly biological defeat, but it is a political defeat and very much the way crystal predicted. They can't get rid of it and it keeps paying democratic dividends. Whenever republicans try
Yeah I mean look it'll be interesting as we get to do sort of subsequent podcast to think about like. Where does the american policy landscape go from here, because so much of Trump era republicanism seems built on not actually pairing back leg. They don't have a feasible path to pare back the welfare state, but they have a set of positions on taxes that commit them to that and a sort of prolonged period of low interest rates has made that viable and then, like Donald Trump, has the site, free wing political circus. That's about everything all the time and definitely not about door accounting logic, but like that's, where you go with this right. It's
Four publicans are they're not going to scrap this programme. The knockers privatized Medicare, like Paul Ryan, want to do that. I can have as such security like Drudgery Bush wanted to, and so what are? They gonna do, but also, I don't even think like in the healthcare space. I would even they're gonna be like thinking about what what is the republican vision on Healthcare, because a gate did that. Because their hand was forced deal with well so action where they had to come up with something to try and pass and they couldn't pass ed. I see so much. You know on the left, like energy to figure out like ok, look. What is our vision on health care and the right like? There's no reason you know when you look at the fact that nothing going to move. You know a lot, the energy. I think also unit was coming from the House and Lake Obamacare repeal plans on republic Healthcare plans really was in the house, none in the Senate it.
Maybe Bill Cassidy. You know keeps working on this because he's kind of seems to be making a name for himself as like the republican senator who works on health care, but it seems like a kind of closed. What do you mean Donald Trump, who said that the public is going to corporate protect Medicare from democratic? Had this drawing of letting our biodiversity? And here we need to take our outbreak and come back to this day. If you like, basically anyone listening to this right now, I'm willing to bet that you are you're dealing with stress, maybe there's a ton of it like an overwhelming amount, or maybe it's more like a low but steady drumbeat background stress, no matter how you spearing stress, it's likely fucking mood you energy, so many other areas of your life, you feel like this is starting to take over strain your relationships and shorten your temper partly tend to unload and better help is perfect for that better help is customized online therapy that offers videophone and even live chat sessions. Whittier therapists she wrote to see anyone on camera. If you don't want you, it's much
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I'm a code Spotify to place your first bat risk free on fan. Dual sports book download Vanderpool today. Twenty one plus and present in Pennsylvania. First, online real money wager only refund you'd as non withdrawal side credit that expires in fourteen days. Restrictions apply, see terms at sports. Booked out, fan dual dotcom gambling problem call one hundred gambler speak, of a Obamacare occur, did get expanded lost. Did in this, like, I think when you think like what tangibly changed for Americans overnight. I think it's that were looking at maybe a half million or so low income. Americans gaining health insurance as a result of the elections kind of happens in two ways. First, we made our actions, and now this is the very time when predicting is good is a tentacle. My prediction was right, like my prediction says: predicts that all three states that had ballot initiatives to expand seem to have passed. The utopian isn't quite certified yet, but it seems like it's going to pass so there
Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, all expanding Medicaid by balance that's about we're result. A little over three hundred thousand people gaining coverage. We also saw two really important. Governors raises Kansas and main both went for the Democrats. Those are places where the governor has been the roadblock to expanding medicating Kansas, the legislature, which is actually controlled by Republicans, as voted multiple times to expand Kate, SAM Brown, back cap, sending back there when we were able to overcome its veto, Main governor Pallaby age has been ordered by a court to implement the states of etiquette exemption, but it said he would prefer the jail. Instead of doing that, some of you know says he's moving far better than I guess. If you look at Kansas and mean that another you know slightly under two hundred thousand people who will likely game coverage if they move forward on medicate expansion, which you know, unlike the states that have done ballots, they still need the legislature
actually work that out. I assume Wisconsin is down, not gonna. Do yet I walk. last thing than you have askance and which was just getting approval from the federal government. Creative work requirement for Medicaid. I have two guests: their new democratic, governor is not going to move forward on those efforts. there's a decent chance that five states joining medicate expansion. You know as a result of this mid term, that's a pretty big shift in a really shows the medicate expansion making some in roads and conservative areas, and it shows a new strategy for expanding Medicaid. You know in places that, where the legislature governor is opposed, that these ballot initiatives are turning out to be a pretty powerful tool to expand Obamacare in places where it isn't in popular. I think one thing you're. Seeing here, there's an old line about american politics at Americans are operationally liberal and philosophically conservative that, if you ask
You know, should the government's small they say yes and yes M, like should expand Medicaid. They say yes right. Those as I do that, there's a attention between what Americans believe that government and and what they want government to do, but something that I think really seeing these election results and protecting these battled initiatives is it. There are a lot of states where folks are true believe Republican, but certainly on a lot of safety net issues. Operationally liberal I mean you think about the electorate's came out, Utah in Idaho, in Nebraska like these electorates or coming out, because you know there is a democratic candidates, you're running a really fiery campaign me, Romany one other, no, like seventy, some percent of the vote in Utah, maybe more I, and yet they came out and that electorate that pro Romany electorate was one the voted for medical. You know the ITA whole Lecter? It wasn't one that voted for Medicaid and it's pretty impressive record here. You win able to separate out some of these ideas.
Their association with the Democratic Party or with democratic politicians with parts of the Democratic Party that the people don't like they're very The very strong now are another democratic politicians can do that. I disagree the true attack. You politician is that if your house down cried, are going to vote for a democratic speaker and vice versa, republican, but the degree to which You know. If you are able to disaggregate, then you can get very, very, very different outcomes. I think his interesting I'm in December. I guess Donald Trump this himself when he ran for President as Republican saying here, protect Medicaid and Medicare, and social clarity and as obviously tried to God, Medicaid and in every way he can, but he Blake was very effective in that because he getting it a real seem of disagreement inside the Republican Party like since becoming president history, how's that seem back up and become more Ryan. Ask but These valid initiatives that are like pointing right into that
Base of tension are really succeeding. Yeah. I think one of the most interesting Paul's I saw roundness was I'm in Idaho, from Boise State University, where they ask people in the same Paul, they pulled on. Obama cares popularity and they pulled on the ballot initiative. I think Obamacare, you know, not, surprisingly, in Idaho got like a thirty five percent approval rating. The ballot initiative and that Paul got like a seventy percent approval rating. So there's just like this huge gap that has developed between philosophical opposition to the affordable, correct and like people just like yeah, maybe we should give low income people in our state health insurance from the government
in its a huge ay. I think we're deftly going to see more ballots in space and twenty twenty. I worry a little bit about this trend. I mean I feel, like Democrats, have won a lot of medicate expansion and minimum wage hike, bellowed initiatives, and I feel like that site makes life too easy for Republicans and that they should consider insisting that if you want to enact democratic party economic policies, you need to elect Democrats to win the like. I think this, like I don't know like. I feel I feel very uncomfortable with this idea that, like we make the choice in elections just about people's like hazy, views on race and various culture, worst of and then like fight, it out, bowed initiatives and, like nobody has to pay the price for electing a political party that doesn't
have their material interests at heart like it seems a little. You know like in utero like fair and I'm afraid it's not like Democrats where work closely targeting that anyway, but again, may I feel, like Democrats got lucky in Paula. Page chose to be such a jerk about this medicate expansion and eventually like do this the right way and beat them in an election, yeah, I'm uncomfortable that. I think that you know too fast estimation alot of people end up suffering in that context. Are not the p who are making the choice that you are concerned about, like most people in any state are not can be medicate expansion you're talking about a very small proportion of the population and the population voting fur. Republicans tends to be richer and older and wider and a world in which you're trying to heighten the contradictions by keeping healthcare
a problem that saying hi contradictions, I'm saying like spend money on winning like elections set of data. That's my view on it here limit. Let's talk about Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi view logged onto twitter. Today, acres in town Champ, great victory. He says embarrassing trump tweet. In all fairness, Nancy Policy deserves to be chosen, speaker of the house by the Democrats. If they give her a hard time, perhaps you will some republican boats. She is earned this great honour and you might think well that such a gracious tweet from Hummel Job like that, is such an unusual thing, but if you, if you see what these doing here. It's like a little bit of like an attempted brat fuck, there's gonna, be a challenge lies at the very least from or representative TIM Ryan, maybe from others against Nancy Policy, as speaker for Democrats is alive, dissension with her speakership, while the people feel time for a new generation of of leadership, but Donald
Rob wants Nancy policy to be his foil like. That is what he is saying. He thinks it will be great if Nancy Policy, a speaker how's he wants. I didn't know we think sober great. He wants Republicans to make sure the speaker of the House, because Donald has never liked this thing or he's got to govern the country. Prettily not dominate, legislatively and sign, and work with Paul Ryan and signed bills. Paul Ryan is crafting that he doesn't really understand what he wants to do is being a fight with a female democratic partition and get my guts. Would you like doing in the campaign? It's what you would like to do now? He would likely be Nancy Policy because she is unpopular and I think it for tells like what what were about to see which, as you know, the Democratic resisted, is about to have an offensive capability, it will have the house again. Launch investigations. Can write and pass legislation not get it, and into law, but buck passing through the house where people have to deal with it in and talk about it, and I sometimes don't trumps gonna have something he has not had, which is a real up. Mission. He tried to make immediate opposition, but the media is really quite play along she's gonna have
I see and he's gonna. How could she is gonna win the speakership most likely, and here I've house, Democrats and he's gonna try to beat them into overreach and try to get them to tread impeach him and we're gonna be in some ways, in a political librium that he is more comfortable with which is like a constant state of high stakes conflict and he is we chopping at the bed for it courses Pelosi, but how buddy runs our strategies and s, given that this is not going to be a pure, I got to say twenty ten when you know, but Obama, John Vainer, decided to try to grant bargain for a couple years like this is gonna, be a period of of real collision in which, like we'll trump tries to make policy and is like equal but opposite foil, that he can use to mobilise his base to win in twenty twenty and his he is showing that strategy he's a gleefully showing off that strategy like right now like instantly wanted it, other things it does a kind of like takes policy offers.
In a way. That seems to be something that he would prefer like when I think back to the healthcare debate. There are all these interviews that showed that the president really does have no interest in like understanding the details of policy. The policy bills were generally super unpopular, so it almost public was. He was a normal Did you policy was a drag for the president that they keep putting out these bills? he wasn't really taking the time to learn about them. The bills would pull super poorly. That kind of seems to end the little beds in and switch to kind of more of this, adversarial relationship with with Nancy policy. Instead of this unique relationship, like trying to work together to pass tax bills and healthcare bells. None of us really blankets, that is moving with the taxpayer Bell. The healthcare stuff is, and all of its pretty unpopular like that policies, sphere kind of music. It gets taken off the table a little bit further.
axed two years in a way that kind of puts tromp more in his comfort zone, with the things he'd rather be talking about you, I dont think Democrats should let Trump get into their head about this policy thing right, but damn good should take seriously. The communications challenge right that, if there is going to be piloted, is going to be characterized by fights between Donald Trump and houses crowds right done from. Is it just a big communications personality right and the way Democrats wage? The mid terms was largely by trying to dock that personality, unlike run their races. You know which was smart. It worked well for them in the house. It did not work that well for them in this
but the opposite strategy of nationalizing in this, and it would have been much much much worse, but I dont think you want to take two years, which is just like Donald Trump slagging in a one sided way against Nancy Policy and is also the case that Nancy Policy is not a. She is like, if you ask Nancy policies, allies to start saying great things about Nancy Pelosi. They'll say that she is a legislative taxation that she is a fund, raising issues and organizer she's, not like an amazing get up in front of the cameras.
some speech person who everybody wants to headline at their huge rally, sway and emigrants need to think about like who are they going to deploy like quays? I officially to leg, be a Democrat who alot of people see in electronic broadcast media because of its just Donald Trump and his like caricature of Nancy Policy, like that's, not good for them, and this, like these formal posts in the leadership structure that they're gonna, have to fill out with your colleague on and and some other openings. But I think the real question is like who does that functional role like who were they constantly saying should be they show is who is going to be the person who tweets aggressively about whatever it is where yelling about today in his, I don't think that's Nancy policies, comfort zone, but somebody needs to do. Let me make the case for Nancy Policy here for a second, because as I read the situation a little bit differently. The Democrats
who are going to be the national spokespeople for the party who are going to be on the Sunday shows going to be? The files are gonna, be the twenty twenty field. It's gonna be Bernie Sanders and Kemal Harris and Elizabeth Warren and Inquiry Booker, and you know Joe Biden and in all these people like, even if you did replaced, Nancy Policy with him. Why and it was not going to be temporary and writer. It's gonna be like we're quickly move into twenty twenty land for for better and for worse what I do things be happening, though, is that the house is gonna structure to some degree. The context in which that campaign is going on is like one of those people being asked comment on what is the media covering one of his Sunday showed discussions about we'll see of Nancy policies has this. But when you see, policy has had traditionally is an x to ordinary amount of legislative, for all and discipline within her unconscious in a way that Boehner and Ryan to the never did, and so
I think a lot of people believe- and I think it's probably correct there, when the real dangers here is democratic over each, that what damage is going to try to do is beat them into overreach and policy again if she still has the kind of Paul and Skill and her car She did in the past and the dissension to her, I think, does for that into question. But if she still has I think she is potentially a quite good leader to hold democratic, pretty discipline strand you, like some investigations, but not like every investigation all at once. You know messages breakthrough like trying to get trumped to bring out his tax returns, but not jumping immediately into like a completely doomed effort and impeachment on and on and on down the line- and you know, I think, the most important thing for cows Democrats for analyses- discipline, strategy. Meanwhile, that will give a context in which, like twenty twenty Democrats can run, their own somewhat discipline strategies, as opposed to like endlessly commenting.
on you know some kind of collision that they actually dont want so I can say for sure the place he has this power. But if you are going like of the people, who could possibly be speaker of the house. For Democrats who might be able to hold Democrats, do a pretty discipline, mine she's. I think that the best bet on it Give it a year like nobody's Thinking that the democratic spokesperson is the speaker of the house, a democratic spokesperson is going to be the one to three people likely to be the democratic nominee Sea ice to feel like the imminence of the democratic presidential primary like raises the stakes to have. Somebody who you know is, for the next twelve months say focused on what is the democratic parties like national message in the media, because most likely, if what you're trying to do is beat seventeen million people and a presidential primary? What you are going to be talking about is,
not what is optimally designed to counter Donald Trump. I mean, I agree with you that bag eventually it becomes a presidential campaign, but like its critical, I think for Democrats to not be like sitting ducks for the next three to six months, just like constantly taking on water as Donald Trump, like role endlessly assaults them, and they try to like figure out their own stuff. Flight. They need to get organised and fight back quickly. Ethic. Speaking of getting organizing fighting back, don't about legislative chambers and like this state balances of power, is a really important but don't get as much national attention. Yes, Democrats, one sort of traffickers
three chamber control in Mean in New York in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Illinois. They also one that both houses, the state legislature in New Hampshire and then Governor ships in Wisconsin, Michigan and Kansas. I believe, and rain. Oh yes and Mean says at the last They also want some downloading one attorney general and Nevada in Wisconsin in Michigan. They're gonna have a chance to flip that secretary of State in New Hampshire, because of how the control of that work, out. So it is a fairly substantial change and means most governors will be or publicans, but most people will live in democratic states. Democrats are going to have a much stronger voice in the twenty twenty,
looking map, and will, of course, also have the chance to make policy. It sounds ridiculous, but Democrats have not had controlled the New York State Senate, like at all in the modern era, and this means in particular, that's a big state that a lot of people live in that I think A lot of ambitious policy making can happen yeah. I think these are kindly It is a matter of handling it state legislatures in their work, after a testing ground for a lot of the policy ideas that under bubbling up into Congress in Washington and the crowds of often think reliefs struggled in this space. They arabic live invested as much in kind of recruiting folks to run these aunt, and so I think it is significant that you're seeing Democrats take. You know the entire state control and a handful of states and I think this also matters kind of when you think of about a pipeline issue, where I think one of the places that Democrats have struggled that. If you don't have a lot of people in stateless
letters running for those local raises. Then it gets harder to like find the right person to run for it congressional seed to kind of start. Taking on those national re says, I am Similarly interested in kind of happens in Nevada. They ve kind of been like a place that it is not thought of The balls you know stronghold but often is kind of actually have a lot of really interesting. Liberal policies. Stuff go and on their like the thing that a few health Europe needs were kind of like digging out over this morning. Is that could mean the return of arms, something we ve talked about here on the weeds of sprinkle care. This Medicaid by the Nevada tried to pass a few years ago got vetoed by the then republican Gus. It seems like new met co and Nevada, are gonna, be in a bit of a race to see who can do a medicate by and first unlike that only happens because of the change in the composition of state level government.
One other- I thought really interesting stuff from all. This is a tree from from less Benjamin saying. The only state left with a divided legislature in the nation now is peanuts soda there. in forty nine state legislatures, are all single party controlled of them democratic control, eighteen or public control. Thirty one which says little bit about the republican lean of states compared to the nations all, but that's just an amazing stuff. who'd, you know like her. Much states or no kind of lining up in in one direction or another, and a bunch of us do have republican legislatures will now a democratic governor and that's important for gerrymandering cause, you're gonna have a census in twenty Twond and you know you if you re, also democratic gains again in two years having those states were even with mixed government means report. Kansas gerrymander their way to unbelievable, like impregnable house fortresses, but the pretty
trusting dynamic, I'm really surprised by the number that fourteen Tine state legislatures or no single party control. That's it! That's an oversized the amount of unity that, because you're still dealing with governors, then No, I told you, I remember where those state legislature and governing governor split. You know who will be interesting to see how much Democrats press there vantage in some of these states wide select. One small example is that, like New York, state has like notoriously regressive, voting practices right, which have historically been enacted, because it's a kind of machine ii type state in which the Democrats feel very self confident and their ability to win statewide elections. So they don't worry about the fact that all these barriers to participation tend to help Republicans, because it also just helps incumbents kind of say, reelected, but then winds up helping house, Republicans sort of
down the ballot right and this whole topic has been the subject of ferocious discussion over the past couple years, and you know if you seen your go to automatic voter registration to opening up early voting. Things like that. that's gonna wind up making life much harder down that road for Peter King and other sort of House republican incumbents out there, On the other hand, New York has avoided sort of taking a try at some of these. Raising taxes on the middle class type stuff that tend to blow up democratic majority is like that. What happened in information and elsewhere and if they feel pressure to it,
do that so like overreach in a week ago, in the other direction that regard or again now has developed a really big democratic majorities in the legislature in Cape Brown got we elected, and I think you could see them. You know moving forward in some kind of big new ways as like the state that has the most degrees of freedom on this kind of move Washington, as we countries before somewhat oddly, has like no income tax and all these billionaires living in it and they say there they're not going to touch that divide promise that they ways to Sunday but their effort to address climate change. The ballad initiative failed. That's it are supposed to be Jaynes least signature issue. It seems like he should probably try to come up with some signals.
How the judgments on his signature issue, you don't wanna, be it'll, be using to see like NET Nevadas New Mexico. I think like have a pretty clear road map that they're going for short of incremental healthcare change in states where Democrats have one relatively narrowly and have not like historically dominated but somewhere on the coast. I think there's this interesting dilemmas our right to big night. What happened here was a lot and we of course, still don't know what happened in all the elections we want. We will get off your back any. It is worth saying I mean, depending on how it goes in the standing Senate. Races it could. It could be like a giant Senate Sweep Or a tenant narrow one which is getting depend for four, how you think about it, I'm so there be plenty more to read about in the future. We will be there. Alternatively, if you want to break the impact, is always telling us that exist. Oh yeah yeah, so we have a new we ve, two episodes up on the impact feed now in new one is coming out Friday.
about a really cool policy experiment out, an Oakland California. So subscribe, if you want to see why all these changes to state legislatures really matter and speaking of we see of of weeds issues, I just had an interview on the occasion come out two days ago with Sandy Dirty who is coming to Duke University. Who's been put the baby bonds idea now some quite Booker's adopted, but it sort of about this idea of universal basic wealth and thinking about economics in terms of groups having a lot of people who will be interested in I've got Leon May for the host of the great progress slobber and talking about how to think about Nixon, Clinton and and and Donald Trump and political corruption, and that's a really fun podcast, sits a little bit out of this moment of time. I really without one gets so check this out at the weeds Facebook group. If there's more stuff, you wanna talk about, if you'd like to see us address things later on, and thanks of course, to our producers, different tanner and the weeds, we'll be back
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Transcript generated on 2021-09-12.