« The Weeds

Bernie and Biden and Beto, oh my!

2018-12-18

Sarah, Ezra, and Matt decide it’s not too soon to start talking about the 2020 election. Plus — Obamacare litigation forever! References and further reading: Matt’s explainer on the Democratic field for 2020 Matt’s piece on Joe Biden’s policy ideas A previous episode of The Weeds on the Obamacare lawsuit Ezra’s piece on the Texas ruling against Obamacare 

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Yeah. This is Marquez Brownie Acre and Cuba HD, and this is Andrew Manga Nellie. We will introduce you to our podcast way, form the new sedition to the Vocs media podcast network, so I've spent over ten years reviewing type. Gregson consumer electronics for millions of people on the incubation to channel and now on the way form part asked Andrew and I use that experience to dig even deeper into latest tech for smartphones too. I max to electric cars. So if you're gadget lover or attack head or if you just want to figure out whether the latest gadget is worth your harder in cash, give us a lesson, so you can find way formed the empty beefy pie cast on your favorite Pakistan. Every Friday see over there really great to get your first
case of pink boy. My excited of kids, exactly Israel is sounds gonna want to watch out for his hand. Foot says rail grow, assess the worse a low and welcome to another episode of the Red Army Box. Potass network I met replaces here today would as recline. Sarah cliff is back with us back in this area when I can't walk right now, but surgery, but but she care. So my yes, and she got here, there's so much rather easier lawsuit patrol autonomy, I've been regarded possessing your bills. If it's true, so you know, I always guy catechism first hand reporting.
so we're gonna. William talk all about that. We can talk about our our hopes and dreams for the new year, but first we want to talk about the twenty twenty primary wouldn't use. Ever you start talking about an election. That's like a million years in the future. A certain number of people get in with the light groaning and the like do we really have to, and the answer is that, yes, we really do have to because many people who work in the political system, many of them current office holders, are due things right now because of their ongoing efforts to get themselves elected president. Admittedly, yes in the future, but like you not, can we will understand what happens in the Senate. You not build understand other things that are going on in the party and in politics. Unless you understand that people are
so you know early poles are worth not much, but it is something more we have political did and I were caucus Paul recently. It has Joe Biden in first place at thirty percent Bernie Sanders in second at thirteen percent, better or work in third Levin, Amy Clover, Char in fourth at nine percent, and then Elizabeth Warren below Clover, char and then her son and bucker down even further below there, but they're all bunched very tight. Yes, I mean when you're talking about people who are below nine balls is a huge gaps between them. I mean what are you going to say? I know tat. I am sure thing in those those numbers like. What's that was a but Biden. Is it thirty, which is a big lead over sanders of thirteen read? So fine
Yes, it is a good place to start structuring this conversation. Thirty percent is a very underwhelming number four, like the former vice president he's not Dominating or anything, on the other hand, that is a big glee it right and under the proportional, delicate allegation rules actually because everyone else's below fifteen buying would get all the delegates. But there. If you put that, in our view, a pretty good result in It's weird right and it's the same thing sanders at thirteen. You know similarly, like he's ahead of everybody else, which is good, and in some ways I think it would be a mistake to just discount the guys who are first and second place for obvious reasons, but also
they are very well known. Quantity is people are aware of who Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are, and neither of them like leap out to huge dominating early leads instead there's middling levels of interest and like a billion other people, so that limit a couple of points here, so one that the recent I do think this stuff is important to focus on. Is that who runs is really important in who wins and who runs is getting decided now? One of the important things that happen in twenty? Sixteen is it even as Republicans ran this massive mega field. Democrats ran one of the smallest fields in memory. They really only because, were three actual Democrats running for President Bernie Sanders as an independent socialist, there was chiefly who'd been a Republican, and then you, like all molly, you had Clinton and then Jim Jim Web had been a democratic Senate for couple years, but before that
also been republican. I mean that was a year were Joe Biden did not run where Elizabeth worn did not run were Corey Booker did not run where none of the governors ran the decisions. It got me by people looking at pulls. His Hillary Clinton was pulling in the fifty five sixty percent range, I'm shoes dominant in an early poles, where we ve never seen anybody be on either side. Who is not a vice president? it cleared the field and she walked up a lot of money and in other there is a lot going on, but that clearing the field was incredibly determinative in what ended up happening for the Democratic Party for the country. He fought. You know for all this, so this stuff is important because some people decide not to get in based on it all this going to be weighed pretty heavily. The other thing I wanted to know about it that I think is really interesting, is if we used to talk about this period journal stead, political scientist,
did Isaac be invisible primary if used to read ABC's the note, which is one of the the early tip sheets, that got kind of spread around online. They used to obsess about the invisible primary and they have like the shrum primary, but who is going to get Bob's from the political side, but this is thing and in political science to that, a lot of these early moves of locking up support within the party of getting the best consultants of of doing all that it spoke to wear a kind of the elites in the party were going in and I can help you predict and understand what the dynamics of the premier actually to be this prime, at this point is visible in a way. I cannot remember any of them being before people being a lot less coy about it. There saying pretty forthrightly Gallagher damaged in running for president a huge number, of people and their running for president. I think our internal spreadsheet, something like thirty four names
on the democratic side, a bunch of the candidates are bringing out huge policy proposals like almost by the week in order to show the way they will run for President Elizabeth Warrants, co determination plan but, of course, Booker's wealth bonds plan. You have Bernie Sanders, Medicare frolic Harris is like Mega YE see, and this is all happening. It's orbiting very publicly, their already go into their early primary states. So it's not just sit like we're covering this really is it. This is happening early like something is going differently this year, for dynamic saving that you wrote about the other day, I'm in your piece about why we're seeing such a big primary and understanding. Why that's happening and kind of fluids going to who's going to end up benefiting? I think that business text you the time you have to do and I think this brings me back to something that was mentioning about- why all of this matters, because I think you can really throw your hands and say this election is gazillion years away, thirty people throwing their hats in the ring is an absurd, a number of people to keep track of and a lot of them. Obviously only one of them will become
the nominee, but I think the reason it matters to me and the reason I would argue for people who, like a show about policy that it matters, is that it's really fuelling a fierce policy debate in a way dynamic. I didn't really have in their last few primaries. You do if you look back because Hilary with such you're a front runner. You didn't really see this idea. The Eden really see candidates trying to carve out an ideological space among this really crowded feel thus year. You obviously didn't see that with the bureau Obama, re election campaign is a bit in two thousand eight, where you saw Edwards and Clinton and Obama putting out different policy platforms so one things you see this year that you haven't really seen in those previous primaries is a lie of senators of eyeing run for office who are putting out really interesting in different policy proposals partially to like stake out.
their policy positions, but also to say this is a thing. That's a priority to meet. You could see a lot of these democratic cannon the governing and roughly the same way, but I think one of the things that they might do a little differently is how they set their priorities. You know you look back at the Obama administration and they decided ok, we're gonna go for healthcare. We're gonna, put that in front of some other things we might want to do, and I think one of the ways I read what's going on right now is Democrats can having a sense of like what their ideas are, what their priorities are, and it really As you said, it feels like a weekly, if not daily, delusion, of indifferent policy ideas. You know just this morning Senator Warren put out something I didn't really seen floating around much before, which is this proposal for the federal government to manufacture generic drugs, the idea being some of these generics. You know if you look at like Dar Pram and Martin, shook rally that some of these generics have gone really expensive and the government could step in and manufacture those it.
Much much lower price. That was you know just this morning. You know like you, as our listing allotted to other proposals that have been coming out. I think something the Democratic Party hasn't really gone through in the past decade or so, because the primaries have been quite different, it's going to be, I'm excited to cover it and watch it, because I, like writing about policy, and I think it's really going to be an interesting debate about where Democrats stand on certain ideas that they're going to flesh out because of this field that is very, very crowded with people who are currently serving senators. I think this stuff can get a list. that misleading that, because you were saying our right to question, I most would like to know about these different characters is like what do they want to prioritize in policymaking? But that's not actually what they're talking about so like it's not clear to me for wanting, like Warren
has put out so many big, distinctive ideas that, like I, don't even have a clear sense of her internal prioritization, but even other candidates who have more distinctive things right, like Senator Harris put out her sort of the IPCC, increasing programme he's, also assigned to a Medicare for all bill ride so in
like political manoeuvring. Contacts like Bernie owns that Medicare for all brand, so like Harris's. Lift ACT is like her thing, but she's for both of them, and what does that mean like what is it actually signifying? It can be very misleading. I inferred from the two thousand eight primary that Barack Obama was less interested in health insurance. Overhaul than Hillary Clinton was. His insurance plan was much more slapdash than hers was. I think here one point told me directly that he was more interested in the energy issue. I thought that was correct. I had like two major reasons why I voted for Barack Obama. That primary one was that I agree with him that Hillary Clinton and John poor judgment on foreign policy. The other was that I thought he would.
de prioritize Healthcare, which is that was a political loser and pointless compared to environment. Energy p then made Hillary Clinton, secretary of State and prioritize health care, and so well you know eggs at my face by the public, it's really hard to say, and you know I would that you could like make the candidates answer these sort of dull real world questions about whether gonna do, but they just don't write so you know it's like: U S. Bernie Sanders like about your eleven unrealistic ideas. while the political revolution will make them all happened right. You try to get Anybody Elsie is this is its inherently very murky, and I like the more presidential elections cycles. I have covered the less of a clear sense. I have of like what the point of it is like it's important. It makes a big difference whose president and obviously a lot of time
energy goes into these campaigns, but I'm looking at it already. I feel very uncertain about everything and I also don't know what would make me feel more clear, and then I was just like puzzled. I mean the to extend like the most shocking thing in this. Is that better work, who has not really waited on the ideas primary doesnt seem like in a normal sense like Zack conventionally qualified to be president on the strength of like some of rumours that Brown Copa like some and a couple of favourable mentioned crooked. Video pod casts has like leaped ahead of all these senators, and you know he's using a nice handsome young man, I think is Texas campaign. Is why he has left ahead in the balls ray really into that yeah I mean accepting the voters hidden their welfare,
but you I mean I'm scared. He. He gave good speeches of our campaign which which I enjoyed, but he was not a campaign that was like super sharp nope issues and ideas right. It was an airy kind of campaign that was at the end. You know he Cameron was criticisms of TED crews, but it was very much alike. Hey like Texas. Is it giant state with a lot of people in it. It hasn't had like a real campaign, has been trending toward Democrats like less feel good about ourselves and each other. It was It was like inspirational and I think, the most to me most like mock, worthy ways that Obama two thousand eight was inspirational. I don't wanna conquests like too harsh about this, because he's he's here Fine, but like it's odd to me that, after all, this spadework was put in by all these other people that it's like. Now we really like the guy. crowds of Israelis, which maybe we do that's politics- will see where people can
on an unvarying to see if the better thing is just one of these bubble kind of issues where, yeah. It's people like get a lot of attention and they get at the end of a move up I mean that was a pattern. We saw the republican primaries. It's time we seen a lot of primaries: butt hole, her to be early on movies, with how central people and media coverage and, at the end of the twenty eight election battle, was very central and media coverage, and suchlike, people are getting called. They have given this no doubt whatsoever as they hear something the name one of the aims that here there not abide in person not a Sanders person. They ve heard about this better guy, like a better it's always hard to tell what is being conveyed in Nepal, but I do want one theory on this, which I I do think is possible, so their tents me a reality and any kind of election that people always trying to refine the last election. There always trying to answer what they think people did wrong just four years.
Oh and I think, if you look at a lot of the senators in particular the you know, your Booker is your war ends, etc. There one against Bernie, Sanders what they are functionally doing is staking out some kind of big left policy. That, in theory, could appeal to his movement, ordered some other big part of the of the left, which is believed to be resurgence, but he's not literally better care for all right. There may be signed on to his bill, but it's like their silent, his bill. The idea see clamour the sun and his bill, and they have you know the co determination plan, but its very possible that this primary knock and others dynamics that in each of the two thousand and sixteen Primary was following eight years Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton had very unique weaknesses and and frustrations swirled around her as a candidate and so created this huge space for Bernie Sanders around this incredible campaign, but the two
The twenty campaign is gonna, be primarily about getting Donald Trump out of office and so maybe they're. Within that campaign. It turns out that where the party actually is is more in a kind of biting or Baddow Space, where what they want is somebody who is not moving so far. The laugh it like there there's like this, like a huge war of ideas, but as somebody who seems to be like waking up every day and thinking about flexibility, I always say that the best analogy for this period is actually two thousand and four. It's not a perfect analogy. Uncertainly it doesn't have the national security dimensions in all kinds of things going on. But I think that the two thousand and two for election had some the same dynamics of a very big field of a democratic party that is very, very, very intent on getting the incumbent out of office. I think the company is weaker than George W. Bush was on onawandah different level. Sidled exert necessarily the outcome would be. The same.
But the other was a kind of moment there where there is a lot of excitement are indeed and then at some areas like a fine Phuket carry like back as war hero like let's go with that, and you know. I think that you have a couple candidates right now who are setting themselves up for that kind of, for that, Move Biden has some policy is there but matters you work in a really good piece today. You know he's not stick in his car. anything really big or unusual that obey. There were a policy of your candidacy at all, and you know maybe the allotted I'm glad to think that the twenty twenty campaigns can be a race to the left, when actually it's gonna be a race to elect ability. What I think you know he looked back at twenty sixteen, and it is true: Bernie Sanders have quite a run, but in the end he did an end of winning the nominations of its kind of. It is interesting to me see the lesson be taken that, like we all need to swerve super laughed union away, also see these policy proposals, unity, you mention kind of running the taking them.
since the last four years. In a way, I feel there also running against Hillary Clinton, saying you know her ideas worth that exciting. They weren't that big and bold away you know Bernie was out there talking about for college and Medicare for all that they almost take a lesson from the opposite side saying we need to go beyond that. do you know it's an interesting policy context that is quite different from the policy context of senders and Clinton running you knew I think also one other thing we haven't really seen evolve. Quite yet, as you know, what happens when the springs in President Trump running for reelection, who either not going to be running a policy heavy campaign or running if a campaign that makes very fake policy promises. You know like he spent of his last campaign, you talking about how all Americans are going to get healthcare and is a great and he has this great plan and it's fantastic. And then we saw over four years. You know that there was no plan,
but he still says: there's a plan. You even we'll talk he in his reaction to the Texas Court ruling he talked about. Oh, we know we have to pass a plan. Gotta run existing conditions covered the thing we know now. You know, though, we suspected couldn't say for sure it during the last election, as there is no planned in health care and a lot of other areas in that You know a dynamic that candidates haven't really had to confront the end. I think it's a hard one to confront, because I think he will be out there making these big promises that a lot of voters are going to in two and like it's not totally clear how Democrats manage that in a successful way. I also think you know. I think, that some of the the senators running for press,
to me. They miss read what was what made Bernie Sanders into a phenomena right. Did they cannot look at that primary we're? Like a ha, I guess primary voters want us to espouse more left wing policy ideas, and so they kind of like went into their policy cookbook and they came. for some policy ideas that were more left wing than their old policy ideas and their like. Here we go policy ideas right there
what is really going on weight is that Hillary Clinton is very much a political, professional right, unlike the MAX vapor, since she was a professional leader of a political coalition and the people who think that they are copying Bernie Sanders by getting on his better care for all bill and by coming out for free college. By coming out for this that the other thing like poker and especially come on Harris there actually imitating Hillary Clinton right in being the burying political professionals who have like taken stock and, unlike ah Democrats, want left wing social democracy. Now. So that's what I am going to go do right. But the thing that was appealing about Bernice hinders was not the specific content of the policy ideas, but
do that Bernie Sanders over his decades long political trajectory was not acting like a political professional. In that sense, he was a conviction politician right who is like he was saying stuff out there when he was at forty percent closing in on the pause people like oh Bernie, could a wine the exact same stuff that he would have been saying if he'd gotten three percent nigh were and dropped out or if he was still mayor of Burlington or if you like, my uncle Lewis, who was burning age, jewish from New York, moved Vermont, became a socialist but never got into politics like he was just like say in his his pitch right and it's better know who comes closest to that right not you being the same conviction politician that Bernie Sanders was, but you just like
being the guy who roles the dikes fright. He ran a primary challenge against Sylvester Riots and twenty twelve and he beat him, and then he was in the house for a few years, and then he rolled the dice on this challenge to TED crews. Ready, wasn't like a well calculated move. It wasn't at the time what the National Democratic Party like wanted to invest in all three. a race like he would like set these fund raising quarters and I couldn't raising records and all these smart people would be like really that money would be better spent on Filberts Edison Right, Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama endorsed his opponent in his twenty twelve housework sprayed. He is the guy who's just like do in his own. They write and not trying to check the boxes, and I dont like officially approve of that mode. Political conduct,
I think there is actually something admirable about the sort of dollar way of doing politics, but I definitely think that, like time has proven that in a presidential campaign, people prefer somebody of the weather is better or worse. Barack Obama or Bernie Sanders, or done, or Donald Trump right, like a million if ways of it like a guy who seems like he's freelancing, he's not anybody's pawn he's out there for himself. He is aligning with a political party because that's how the system works, but he doesn't like party politics and that that's the issue that some of the other people have to deal with is the perception that they are machine. Politicians who are,
climbing the latter rather than speaking from the heart. I think that's really insightful and I do they get. Actually, I wonder, is it is a bridge talkin about Bernie Sanders, because I think this primary fundamentally being shaped by his curious weakness in the polls and its weakness? I don't really have an explanation for I think, ending the twenty sixteen election, you look it Sanders and you you could have had a couple of things that point about what he didn't wind, but a lot of people had he should oven, and if he had won the primary, maybe he would have won the general action. I think the criticisms sanders at that point where, like wine, not a real Democrat and there's a lot of anger at him around that you know I was out. That was somewhat overblown. He grew use is a Democrat who his own branding scheme, which I get wide annoys some more traditional democrats, but it is what it is, the Was it really never really been attacked? So all these like high approval numbers? He has, though, not real. We know when many people are like all look like you so popular. If you know what in democratic to nominate the popular persons like well, who accompany street
pillar two and then she ran in a national election, and then she wasn't popular, that's what happens and then the third was it had no foreign policy and just nothing I think Sanders. Laid the period after the election extraordinarily well. Actually he has been an extremely effective coal national politician within the Democratic Party this, Think partially some creditor goes to minority of Schuman who brought him into leadership, but centres decided to play. He decided like come in and I'd be more or less a good soldier, but also use his position to get the most of the Hammer Craddock Party, maybe not most, but a huge portion of the Democratic Party sign up for Medicare for all in terms of changing the parties agenda, Bernie Sanders since the election has been acting as like. The part is kind of chief ideas. Man end like has even
As we talk about some of the other candidates reset the concept for what democratic ideas even look like. So one thing he's done really well is play within the Democratic Party, never to his approval. Numbers have held up, he still a very popular politician and its trees not been under, like widespread it But people heard enough about him by now. There do play reasons to lot like came. He doesn't get like great coverage on Fox NEWS, you know, I certainly in my view, his approve animals have been more a ball and Ivan would have expected. So I think you have to look at him and say: ok, like this guy's popular many comparison, Elisabeth warren- it is not the case it is. Anybody in politics has high approval numbers. Her approval numbers are quite a bit lower than Bernie Sanders. Sir he's build up a lot. More foreign policy has been giving its good speeches on their. He hired good people into that. He certainly been. I think the release, thinking about how to be a pillow pillar, more african american Democrats, unease much better name, recognition and relationships and that community now we'll see
with that turns into Vienna support, but but it could, and yet, if in twenty, sixteen Sanders did a lot better among the people than among the leaves actually almost think now we're seeing the opposite thing. We're leads dont want to make the mistake of underestimating Sanders again till they were really focused on him. You know civilian, the political press he's not given how he performed and twenty sixteen pulling high he's, usually pulling under fifteen percent, usually about half or less than half of what ya, by is pulling at not very far from depending on the pole, Kemal Harris, Better Rourke, that's a lot her than I would have expected. Given how strong support wasn't twenty sixteen and how adroitly he's play? in the intervening years, and I think that that weakness of his is creating be open spaces. run through in the in the primary here, pulling a forty three percent, this meat, looking very different So I'm curious. If either of you have a theory, for why Sanders is routinely pulling at thirteen or fourteen, rather than thirty or thirty. Five
I mean this is not a very well thought through theory, it's one kind of listening to you and Matt over the last few minutes. You know. One thought, as you know is met, was mentioning one of the things people really liked about him. Was this like free wheeling. You know he's just this guy from Vermont supporting things he supports, and I think you know, because of their kind of coalition of stuff, is within the Democratic Party. On the one hand, I think you're right as our he is changing. What policy looks like he is changing kind of where the baseline. As for what it means to be a Democrat and pulling that to the law, On the other hand, you know he kind of looks a bit more like democratic in the Senate Ito he's in leadership. He is you know, but working on medical for all, but also working to defend the affordable care act that he looks a little bit less the guy who is you know, come in and doing the things he thinks are right and more like an establishment Democrat who is part of the system
I don't know, I don't like a strong attachment to this theory, but that could be one factor where a dozen really have you two running a second time as birdie Andrews or even running a second time as Donald Trump doesn't really have the sense of like this new fresh phrase, disruptor in the way it does the first time you know both of them are running the way I think of this I tried, Pike Bernie Sanders has done a lot to assuage my personal doubts about him as a candidate from or any you know not to just redo Ezra thing, but in particular I thought the Bernie Sanders is high. Pull members were a kind of ball from the campaign dynamics that, like just a huge swathes of people who didn't like Hillary Clinton, some of them Republicans conservatives have had just kind of decided. Ok, I'm going to say that I like Bernie Sanders and I thought that
definitely collapse when he, you know if he was the nominee, and I think that has really been debunked like he has become a partisan figure who republicans conservatives, attack and complain about, and his numbers hold up well like he is just popular and well liked, and I think that he is viewed as a person who has integrity like more so than the average politician, and I think that makes a pretty good elect ability case for right that this is somebody who, in a contest, would Donald Trump will keep a focus on economic policy. Issues will be regarded as persons the honest and will be really hard for a Publicans, a sort of what about their way past or the million from scandals he's. Also, as you said, like he's shone like he can, step up on foreign policy can address. Those areas has actually been a very influential leader on the development of of the immense issue in
grass, and then that's the other thing he shown that like. It is true that the main ideas he puts out, there are not really plausible are realistic, but then he also has this other side to him. We're like he's a member of the? U S Senate, who does thing and gets bills passed. So it's like he understands right leg you would not want a president whose delusion all, but I think it's find ever present, whose aspirational red and like he knows he's doing so I might a Bernie Brow now and Are we to me that he's like way worsen the pause, then shakier Bernie looked to be an in twenty. Sixteen, That said, when seeing ended its national democratic Paul, it also showed Bernie running well behind Joe Biden, who himself was not doing that great
if you dig into the internal, so you just ass the approval ratings of the candidates. It's like Bernie is well thought out right, there's a huge segment of Democrats who have heard of Bernie Sanders who say they have a favourable view of Bernie Sanders and who are not picking him as their first choice for president to me that to speaks to the sense that, like Bernie in Biden, are both out. There is he's like old white guys in a party that is really not been giving. You know women, really really well in twenty, a teen contested primary elections and the woman candidates who people get excited about and who now seem to be down in the poles are not nearly as well know, and so I think they're sorted doubts there. But- I I wouldn't sell on Bernie's odds right now,
because, even though his poles are not great, his approval numbers are actually quite high and he sort of has a chance to get up there on the stage and I'll compete, these other people, of course they also have the ability to compete them. I mean, I think, to me. The item was issues asleep. Because everybody in politics like talks about Como Harris all the time, but it's like if Como Harris can get out there and delay we're speech and overruns like wow. That was an amazing speech or do a debate with fifty million people on the stage and do a really good job and public wow she kicked ass. Read the fundamentals behind her are very, very strong. I just don't think she's quite yet ever done that, like wow thing, she becomes a candidate who, at the moment, like professionals, are like this is good. She's had a good career she's, very smart alot of people like her,
but there's a big just performance, ass back to prison for politics and Amy Clover. Char is like the busy candidate at the moment, as she's. Also just super duper popular Minnesota, but legacy thing like have we ever heard by the amazing Amy Clover charged me This has a say she can give one just like she would have to do it right to talk about some about here, lawsuits cigar break the talk about the courts. If you like. Basically anyone listening to this right now, I'm willing to bet that you are you're dealing with stress, maybe there's it. of it like an overwhelming amount, or maybe it's more like a low but steady, drumbeat background stress, remember how you are experiencing stress, it's likely effect,
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institutional- and this is the last year that we actually did an entire episode about a few months ago. That will put in show notes it's the one that was brought by about twenty republican attorney general charging that, because the individual mandate penalty is no longer in place as a result of the tax reform bill, the individual mandate is unconstitutional and if the mandate is unconstitutional than the rest of the law has to fall with that. Having a thing that surprised me about this court ruling wasn't that it went against the affordable care act. This judge Red Oconnor, whose George W Bush appointee is known for some. pretty controversial rolling. He seems to kind of b the district judge you go too. If you want to strike down some kind of Obama era, LAR some kind of social programme, so I was expecting him to rule against the affordable care act, but I wasn't expecting him
go as far as the attorney general asked him to so they said in their arguments that if the individual mandate falls then all of a bomb in carrying out not just the reforms to the insurance market, which the mandate is somewhat into girl too, but also the medicate expansion, also reforms to how Medicare pays for health care also requirements that restaurants put calorie labels on their menus. They argued that everything has to go away. You even the Trump administration, wasn't willing to go this far. They aren't defending the law, but they, you know, offered up the position and a court brief that only in the insurance market reforms, the ban on pre existing conditions, the requirement
Everybody, though, should follow the individual mandate falls, but the rest of the law, medicate expansion, Medicare forms that shall stay in place in this was a pretty sweeping ruling ruling the entirety of the affordable care act. Unconstitutional me do, I think, the big the These things to know right now, our first this does not affect the affordable, correct. It is still standing law. One judge in Texas cannot take down a major public policy programme and then I think the debate, that's kind of interesting to me right now is what happens next, the smartest legal people I talk to you. Don't don't see this as a serious argument. We talked about this ass. We had them sure we'll get into this love it here, but the legal arguments that are being offered are very, very weak and, I think Ezra, nice right up of kind of the judges finding that maybe he'll talk about a little bit here. You know that
sad. I am still a little wary of writing off the challenge completely. Just after seeing other challenges written off in a similar way. I'm not convinced this one is different enough where we can just wave our hands and states prevail, Essen in stop looking at it, but I think the biggest debate icing went on right now as well. You don't wear where does this go in its next steps? Yeah? So let's talk for a minute, about the ruling, because what happened in between us talk about this last time and this time as we achieve the ruling and so does want allowed its logic and its logic is like banana pants, but but I think it is important to do so. individual mandate and the individual mandate is according to Democrats, when everybody can essential to Obamacare an assassin,
was being used in a weird way. Here, it doesn't mean like something you really want in the law is used to say something like without at the law could not function. That goes to Supreme Court. John Robert says the individual mandate is unconstitutional as a regulation under the commerce clause, but his constitutional as attacks, and that's where that's rumbling sets for a while. Then in twenty seventeen Republicans I do not repeal Obamacare, but in the tax cut bill, these zero out the individual mandate as attacks, so now is a tax, but doesn't packs you anything. So these republican phrase general look at this and say: aha over doesn't tax. You anything that it's not Tax and then, if what you say is individual mandate is what it's like this weird regulation, even though its not working then is unconstitutional and if as unconstitutional, because it is essential Then you can just take it out of the bail you have to find the entire bill unconstitutional and this
make any sense on a number levels, but one of the obvious levels. Is it Congress cruelly intended to do what it did, because Congress did what it did. Congress repealed the tax in the individual mandate without killing restive Obamacare well, but there was no real debate and Congress. They had no opportunity to consider repealing right, and this is where we re going to suggest riddle. Conor says he says, oh well, I find that they had no intention about the rest of the bill because they were acting through buddy. Reconciliation by internet. it did have an intention, the intention to do what they did, which his to repeal the taxpayer but leave the unconstitutional regulation. Thus leaving aside unconstitutional, hold at that holding down this is not how you do this like. This is like This sounds crazy for listening to me, like none of that makes any sense freezes, and none of it makes any sense. John calling it a good peace, not impose certain there, like a bunch of the conservative legal folks who will live. About these other challenges like this is ridiculous. So it's ridiculous, but it's
like this is where we are and they now like. Further you're gonna have to look at it or the or something, but just to think I just want to say about this: isn't it? level of legal like shenanigans that Republicans repeatedly convincing them? calls to buy into and in getting ex some random judge somewhere to buy into is like it, it's damaging. It's bad for the entire system like this is a ridiculous way to treat the law and the legal system, and I guess supposed to have like some middle. Viable level of like legal theory to get twenty or whatever it is attorney. General attorney general to sign on like this son and anything these days, issues its honestly like it is complete Calvin Ball in a way. That is certainly reduce my respect for the legal system, but I think it is creating an obvious, like everybody looks at this like oh yeah, ok, weeders, how these partisan legal attacks going on all the time and long run it just makes it very
just like wave away anything but the ultimate expression of Supreme Court power ourselves, three additional points why is it? We are seeing some of the poison fruit here of John Robert speaking to cuban his additional world right, like the original conservative legal theory about this makes no sense. It was made up nonsense like the entirety of conservative commerce, clause, jurisprudence right. There were just like oh here's, this thing that is clearly a commercial regulation, but we're gonna, Pretendedst Unconstitutional for no reason and John Roberts instead of saying fuck you that's arm was like. Oh, you guys are right, but here's this other reason why you don't get the outcome you want an
everybody wrote their articles about owe a great statesman, the chief Justice Babo BAR, but like now he's sorting gettin what he deserves for this right, which is like given his imprimatur today loop be legal theory that Congress is right to regulate. Interstate commerce is a right to regulate interstate commerce. If some Republicans don't like the way their doing it site, you can make anything up on that basis and that's like that's the whole problem, with federal society and I'm a jurisprudence, and now the tossing a back up. The anything is, if Congress, I shouldn't, say Congress. If Republicans Congress didn't suck, you could just fix this in two seconds: right. You would put up there on the floor and it says the individual mandate is repealed boom? ok, then none of the rest of it goes up in a puff of smoke, because this whole Lupi issue.
About the linkages and that metaphysics whereby medicate expansion is unconstitutional because you can have a zero dollar tax would just go away right, but it's on happening because Republicans Congress actually once the affordable care to be repealed, root and branch. So they are happy with this outcome, so they're not doing the fix, even though the fix is easy, but then there's the third thing which is like it would be one thing for constitutional law to just be the raw exercise of partisan politics, but the way Republicans practice constitutional law is the raw exercise, a partisan politics plus lion right. Silly republicans dont want to put a bill I'm a floor that repeals medicate expansion, because it would be unpopular to kick all those people off their health insurance. So instead what they do is they vote to confirm. Conservative judges loss
Oh no! No, we love Medicaid, we love pre existing conditions. We want everybody to have healthcare, and then they have this network of conservative lawyers I hope it's not. You can say always one judge, it's all of the attorney general right. It is every single republican state legislator in Wisconsin backed a lame duck bell to ex post. Take away the power of the newly elected turning to read. This is a uniform consensus view inside the Republican Party is that this judges ruling is the outcome that they want, but they don't want to take political responsibility, for So they have this like coordinated way to put judges on the bench who advanced, extreme libertarian economic policy agenda, that they do not want to defend before the voters, and then they just gonna say ever on election day, like drops Howley, who is behind this? Also, he didn't need to join this lawsuit like he could seek what we wanted the water to prevail. It would not
anyway, have hindered the lawsuit firm did not sign on, but he's Simon and then spent the whole campaign lying about his position, and then he won because whatever conserving media's horrible and that's what they're doing here right needs a very frightening vision of how american politics might work in which companions might be just circuses. That are debated entirely on the basis of national anthem protests, and then policy is made by installing Federalist society judges who go to secret conferences of the Heritage Foundation where they decide what they're going to do and that's how everything happens and they don't like actually explicit what they're doing like nothing. Donald Trump has said about this. Whirling is like this. Whirling is good because the policy outcome that it will lead to in which people dont have health insurance is the one that I favour write. His administration like works tirelessly toward this policy outcome, but they won't say
it's a policy oakum that their working toward and that to me is very frustrating very frustrated. I think one of the things as most interesting to me this weekend on the Republicans side is to sing the in the very telling silence around this ruling, so you saw you know Friday night. All these democratic legislator
on social media through the weekend you don't talking about. This is a disaster. This is terrible. You didn't really see the same thing from a republican legislators. You didn't see until they were on the Sunday shows being pressed on it by the host them coming out and celebrating this ruling, I place a lot of faith in a lot of illegal exports. I talk to about those who do not expect. You know this to ultimately be a successful law suit. They will note that these five justices, who were sitting in the Supreme Court, who upheld Obamacare still sitting in their seats. You know I am pre convince genome by one right it off entirely, but I'm pretty convinced by the argument that this might not even make it to the Supreme Court, but it would be such a train wreck fervour publicans and in aiming to be a train wreck for Americans, reliably, affordable, correct it be a train wreck. The Republicans. Are they actually to deal with the consequences of this law suit? Being successful
either we sign twenty seventeen that they don't know a clear vision of how to repeal the affordable care act, and I don't think throwing a Democrat controlled house in the mix suddenly makes that something that they gain clarity I, and so they are in need of an odd place around this. At this point- and I mean the Josh Holly example- just really really frustrates makers at something where his policy was so clear from the actions he was taking. The was signing onto a lawsuit, trapeze, pre existing conditions and he was running these add saying he supports pre existing conditions and he won his race Siena. Thinking back to our previous conversation about what twenty twenty looks like. It's really demoralising lesson in american politics to me that he was
able to straight up lie about how he feels about pre existing conditions and he won his election self. But looking forward to Toy nineteen weaken Rita, in some cases are before gas. So what happens next, so this judge ruled this I like what what is the next illegal step for for this challenge? So the next legal step as being is the ruling being appealed up to that's circuits, and this has been done since the Trump administration is not defending. The law is a group of democratic attorney general's led by the attorney general. California,
who are the ones who have vowed already to file an appeal. So the next step is this being appealed to the fifth circuit. There are some technical legal things that the judges doing that seem to slow this process. If you want to understand those better, I highly recommend the twitter feed of Nick Bagley, whose a health care professor at University of Michigan, who has been writing extensively about those things. So it seems like the appeal might not go super Lee. But the next step is an appeal with the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, which is generally a relatively conservative circuit. But you don't one where folks eyeing the decisions needed generally expected to be reversed, but wooden jam toward the rule out the possibility of it being affirmed and then from the fifth circuit. It could possibly go up to the Supreme Court,
fun: fine, ok with that we're gonna call it call it a day here, thanks to all of you out, therefore, for listening thanks to republican traditional activists for keeping us on the Obama care be every time I think we're out thanks guys. So amazing, thanks to our producer, Griffin, Tanner and the weeds will return on Friday.
Transcript generated on 2021-09-11.