« The Weeds

Biden's rescue plan

2021-01-19

Vox business and politics reporter Emily Stewart joins Matt and Dara to unpack what's in Biden's giant stimulus package, and to examine how the new Congress will handle the massive imperatives of economic recovery, on the eve of the commencement of the Biden administration.

Resources:

"Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion Covid-19 stimulus plan, explained" by Emily Stewart, Vox (Jan. 14, 2021)

"Legislative Process 101 — The Senate's Byrd Rule"

White paper

Hosts:

Matt Yglesias (@mattyglesias), Slowboring.com

Dara Lind (@DLind), Immigration Reporter, ProPublica

Emily Stewart (@EmilyStewartM), Business and Politics Reporter, Vox

Credits:

Erikk Geannikis, Editor and Producer.

The Weeds is a Vox Media Podcast Network production.

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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your essential tools into one place where you can prioritize tasks. Collaborate on docs chat with your team and track goals, so companies like uber and web flow use click up. Is their mission control Center, replacing every other app that we're using before click up even Aren T used to help you save one day week and get more done. It's completely customizable. It's free forever to try click up today at click up dot, com, slash the weeds. We live in a colonial fiefdom. It's fine. I know that cloning wasn't utilizing the same thing. At me wasn't another absent needs on the bugs me does not worth a metal glaziers here with public as Dara Wind Foxes, Emily Stewart, and we wanted to talk about Joe Biden, whose economic plan for America, which is big, it's it's,
The big one point nine trillion dollars and it's you, bigger than one point nine trillion dollars, because I I felt this a little obscured in some of that the coverage but like they said very clearly. This is meant to be one bill that there will then be a sequel bill which their official recounting it is that there's rescue and then there's recovery. The reality, as I understand it, is their stuff that they feel the tires had been kicked on cynically well in Congress and their stuff. There still kind of arguing about internally, but either way this is like it's a lie, samuel- you, you were great, explain her and what's in this bill, so like what what is in the bill? yeah, so I mean it's called the american rescue plan. So, as you said like this feels like the first part of two parts of theirs, but basically, if you think about AIDS divided up into three bucks itself, hundred billion dollars for hand of dealing with corona virus vaccines and testing. One
trillion dollars indirect relief to families, and so that includes those stimulus shacks that everybody is heard about a lot and then another Hundred billion dollars and aids, communities and businesses that state and local aid things like that, you're, as you say, it is big stuff in it. Some of the top line things nearly you hear about a water unemployed, insurance or what it would do would be to add the federal weekly benefit through September and make it four hundred dollars right now, it's three hundred dollars to about MID March, and it would again have those stimulus, tax making the six hundred dollars it everybody got or is getting into. Two thousand is not an extra to those in it is extra fourteen hundred, which I think there has been some confusion about, but it's in extra fourteen hundred
the that the six hundred fourteen hundred two thousand then interacting, live attention on twitter at where people like to argue about this, but is using the unemployment part, is the most sort of significant element in this right that its, I guess the case shaped recovery lingo has has picked up, but its edge a weird situation where most people lose personal financial situation actual seems to be okay, but there's a lot of people who have lost their jobs, and it's really not ok, do not have a job be in the middle of a pandemic when you're prospects for getting a job, really bleak and to have no money which is like millions of people are in that situation, and I would find it hard to message like you want to deny there's a problem like millions of millions of people lost their jobs, but also, unlike in the great recession where you like, all kinds of people in two thousand nine like they were underwater and their home mortgage like
life. Savings have been wiped out, even people who were still employed had like really serious financial distress and waited that's different now so aiding the jobless is like particularly crucial. It seems to me yeah. Can you actually dual over the back of the envelope map on his leg, Emily's other the difference in turn that their proposing on you, I like what one hundred dollars extra week and for six more months right. Obviously, there are fewer people, but it's like people who are unemployed are getting way more than an extra two thousand dollars. So I do think that it's I want to personally take a step back and say that it's very weird to be talking about legislation and not have the first question be. Will the President signs the bill that the president people are pushing like? There is a fundamental extent to which, like it's great to
leap into the typical policy political world of Washington, in which we can deal with monsieur interests, and you know like blocks efforts of Congress in that kind of thing, without the entire thing being dominated by one man's ravening ego, but is it like it does take a little bit of adjustment? And the other thing that's been interesting to me. Is that, like the Biden, you know they're, not even the binding ministries, and yet it has been kind of ribbon becoming office with his very well, planned out legislative agenda. Vit appears to be. Who were needed is through the back door, with members of Congress like this isn't chuck, then we're in Nancy. You're are saying: hey, here is what we have told Joe Biden American knees, and here is the bill that we are going to put through Congress, the body that passes. The Swedish, and this is the violent in saying hey. We now
we have enough. Democrats in Congress did the first clank of what we're going to do in office is tell Democrats in Congress ass, a bill which is just as somebody was generally things and the administrative side of her apologies understand. It is interesting to me that that their first big thing is both legislative and being done as the president is proposing, and I would like I'd like to hear a little bit more from you guys about what you think the politics behind that arm, whether that seems like something that is likely to go smoothly for them as they appear to fit. Well, it's it's not dead weight. If you took the Heroes act that has democratic, and then you subtract did the December relief bill that doesn't have a name. The remainder is pretty similar to this binding legislation. I mean it s, not identical.
But I mean I, I think, some of the leg- here's Joe Biden, relief bill kind of vibes year reflects the fact that Democrats, at least like that, the leading them like Nancy Pelosi attracts humor and Joe Biden talk to them same people and have similar ideas. So it's like: what's a policy bill verses? What's a tumor bill, verses, what's a binding bill are just not bad! like distinct from one another, and you know it so, like that's good, I mean it's definitely the opposite of Trump right. We're like things would come out of left field and you never really knew who was behind them right, there's a kind of like post Obama, democratic establishment policy blob and what they think
that the initial stimulus request should be really really large and that these are good things to put into these timorous request. Does there take away from their own ass or shortcomings from two thousand nine and it's what they're trying to do at the same time like its clear? This wasn't like that is the line by line with Joe Mansion John tester. Nor is it a hundred percent clear what the legislative vehicle for doing any of this is, but, like a white Obama, was president right or when he was transitioning. Would they thought was that a really big number would free people out and they would say that's crazy, we're not gonna. Do they also thought that once the legislative wheels started turn that it would turn into a Christmas tree right. They thought Republicans would see that this was inevitably going to pass and
start saying yes, vote for it. If I can get my own guenaud, fifty billion dollar thing and Democrats would also want to get on bandwagon answered. The bill would get bigger and they worry about the bill getting too big ride, so they wanted it to be Larry. Summers is view was timely too. Get it and temporary and he was legitimately it wasn't. Just like it's good for the money to be timely and well targeted. There was like a genuine concern that Congress was gonna, take this legislative framework and like put all kinds of nonsense in it, and they were upset about the nonsense air and they are now feel not likely, rightly gives this child tax credit in their which is otherwise its nonsense, like it's a good initiative but like it, has nothing to do with covered recovery. This is literally just a thing. That's been kicking around progressive thing.
Thanks for a long time that wasn't in binds economic agenda, but that a number of other candidates proposed and that some people on it see him just like stapled on to the proposal because, like they think it's a good idea right, and so they are. They are like doing their own Christmas tree And that's because they learn from two thousand nine that it's hard to go back a second time if you fail ray- and in passing, I talked to a handful of Canada. Office is involved in this and would give. I asked them like why this why this amounts to plan, and they were already explicit lake back two thousand and nine a lot of members thought they were gonna get to bite at the apple and they did it and now you kind of see, if I didn't think. Okay, like maybe we'll get a second bite at the hey. If we don't hear his bite number one, and I also think it's in
to point out that this is kind of. I think the bit administration's opening bid here right, like a lot of this, is going to change. You have Democrats already jockeying to get different things into the bill right like if you look at the that they put out, they mentioned automatic, stabilizer sort of being on the table, which would mean basically like unemployment insurance is tied to certain economic conditions. So we don't constantly have this fight in Congress, but, like that's not in there end up in the final proposal. We don't know yet and so there's kind of a lot. I think that will sort of come out in the next couple of weeks. They try and figure this out, and they also they don't know if they can get Republicans. I'm bored with this Republican signed on to the Kerr Zach side on to the stimulus bill, and that is like a very big question and it seems like the idea now is to kind of give it a go.
See what happens and try and fail and fail fast and then maybe pivot yeah. This is the other thing. That's been interesting to me, and this is also because, like the day before we're taking this episode, the story came out that Chuck Schumer, in which Mcconell are working out a deal for just like how the Senate is going to work and fifty split. That CNN described as a power sharing agreement, which appears to be more of a characterization than a description but because there are some questions, particularly about like it looks like there are going to be an equal number of Democrats and Republicans on the Committee raising really be questions about. Ok is the Senate in a hundred seventy, if Congress going to work as a committee driven body as a historically was or is going to work in the way that its work in the last decade- Frankly, it doesnt particularly matter who's on the committees, because the big bills are really coming out of committees. The big bills are coming out in conversations between leadership of each chamber in the White House
so it seems to a certain extent lake. Conversation in DC before the Georgia Senate run off. Was we can't talk about the first hundred days of the Bite administration and any real concrete sense? Yet because we don't know if we have the votes in the Senate and that's my determine everything downstream, which made sense, but then the minute that that run off happened in it became clear that Democrats, through the Tiber going have a de facto in a majority, eat went right to great. Now that Democrats have majority in both chambers hears legislative agenda which doesn't deal with the kind of mansion test, your questions you know, as Matt Raise doesn't deal with the questions of. If you lose some of them, can you get other Republicans? pins or, like generally, is this going to be like a thing where you can do for stock as quickly as possible? Because it's going to be very clear from the outset votes, or are you going to have to do a slower market process? While you try to whips and votes in order, and it also does
take into account the whole reconciliation warlike sixty vote question which it you know another kind of big on answer conversation that I gather is happening in a lot of closed door meetings, but publicly isn't really being taken into account. So it's just it's been very interesting to see the leap from we have no, the politics, before we can talk about the policy to here is the policy without the political model being publicly articulated. Yeah, although I think there is a part of the political model is a little bit of a. I think like keep it simple philosophy, which I think we're going to talk about immigration next week when we know more details, but it, but I think a slightly similar theme emerging across these things, which is to write down the proposal that you would like right like fully aware that
not how Congress works and then just sort of sea where it goes from their rather than trying to sort of pre guess what you think some people in the other party might think would be appealing. So one thing about this: this one point nine trillion dollar package is: it has stuff like minimum wage increase. That is broadly thought to not be reconciliation. Able and that signifies the aspiration to pass a sixty vote bill. But there were no sweeteners, so there's no thing in this that suggests a bona fide effort to secure the sixty votes simply need to secure them. The link, Joe Biden, was born yesterday, where did it gets a genuinely it's like a hundred percent, the opposite of that to me, it makes
Certain amount of sense right to save it. Look like we have an aspiration to do a bipartisan bill, and these are our policy aspirations and it is an opportunity for either Mitch Mcconnell or rank and file republican members to say you know what I would do half of this stuff. If we could also do this other thing and like leave, it open ended what that other thing might be, or what the process might What I do think is odd about. It, though, is that there's this rescue Elam Right is this like we need money to administer vaccines which seems like you could get bipartisan support for, and also like you don't want to wait like three weeks would be really fast for legislative negotiation, but like
we should get vaccinations coping like sooner than that right in three weeks, while it would be really fast for, like first hundred days style bill is an out of Blake. Those cares and the December package were negotiated within way less time than in terms of lake when things actually started moving right, but I mean it's just like that's assorted question. Why, like the parcel did out into short term verses long term recollect, I dont know: did they cleaved? That distinction like exactly how I would of, but I think they didn't want the first package to be really measly radishes. We likewise just is just testing and vaccine. One Let's take a break in and want to talk about more of these details. If you're, a gig worker or self employed, there's some good news about PPP loans, you might want to consider millions of self employed. Workers may qualify for up to fifty thousand dollars in one hundred percent forgivable loans, you might be one of those millions as the leader
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and Google use cook up to make their days more productive, managed projects, people and calls for effectively thoughtfully, of all sizes and industries hookups pleasingly, asked features of one thousand plus integrations because they must have for anyone wanting to track manage to tackle their work in one place and two hours back with click up trade for free today, cook up that palm slash, the weeds so can we can? I think one thing in the background is like: what's the economic situation like water? What are we rescuing here? Because it's a kind of I don't know like its both bleak and not simply well, I think it's bleak depending on who you are who deserve the overarching theme a lot of their. So I mean we are about.
A million jobs less than where we were before the pandemic. Millions of people have also just stopped looking for work, and but we are people talk a lot about like a shape recovery. So what does that mean? Basically, the economy is a lot better for people who are kind of higher up on the income scale. People who can from home. You can spend their days on zoom, then for people who are on lower and set the scale people who have jobs in the service industry. A lot of that happens to be people who are lower income people of color. So that sort of this situation, and so when you look at this again like how this package is designed, it really does look like at least initially there trying to take aim at the people who really need help and people at the bottom of this scale, who are kind of in that lower slope of the k, because, like again for me, like whatever in my life
is not as great as it was a year ago. I barely leave my house, but I still have my job and that's not true for my neighbor, who works at the bar on the street, that is no longer an existence. We also talk a little bit. You mentioned Emily, the head of state and local he's a vision that I think, is something that, like you know, why is there so much heterogeneity and like the personal economic situation, we don't even necessarily talk about the state of local budget crunch, which is about to hit really really hard. Is. Both of those entities start lake. Their budgeting european done the last years. You know expected tax havens and takes a lake. What is the kind of problem there and what is the vital industries in proposing to do to fix it? Well, this is when I really big sticking point four Republicans
with a sort of confusing like everybody lives in a state and a city, and I use the excitement of the District of Columbia, live in what you say, but basically of most states have these balanced budget amendments, which means that, unlike the federal government, they can't run a deficit ah of their money, needs to add up their balance. She needs to add up, and so what has happened is obviously, tax revenues are down, businesses are closed and, at the same time, a lot of these season. Cities serve, are experiencing more demand for services or their health care and social services. Things like that, and so you sort of, system, where it's kind of out of whack and out of balance and what you know a lot of people in the lesson experts will tell you is that if you don't give money to cities and states what they wind up doing is cutting services, they lay people off and they make Recovery slower and longer now is the jewish and the same for every city, every see no some
these are doing. Ok, but I think you're, more broadly, we. The issue is like: why not give them money to have a better situation? Five ten years from now then leave this part out, and so are you see with the binding proposals that they're trying to get this in their they're? Trying to get anything about? Three hundred fifty billion, as for state and local governments and the way they do framing. Oh it. I found him in our salaries. In fact, she does like not so much like just give New York like the blue state, bail out or whatever they like hey. This is for essential workers is for teachers is, were reopening squaws. He don't you like public transit, that's my freedom, and so it seems like there at least trying to frame it through some of the languages like hey. This is people, and things your life and not just giving money to California or Illinois or New York, not to say that they don't deserve money, but that's sort of how I'm looking it up. So it's the opposite of the kind of direct age
direct, clear, just name on the czech money to individuals and then the kind of complicated provision of services to states the associated with like the safety nets, seizure individuals where it is earmarked and accessible in particular, raises that affair. But it is rather right if I'd check to new terms they re shoal, of what we can to note about this is that the euro should the stick and local budget situation has. Actually, it looks like it's better than most people thought it was going to be six months ago that, like one aspect of the case, shape recovery is at which people pay a disproportionate share of the taxes, like California, has a very progressive tax structure and has had a very like most states, a very regressive economic impact, but their state has actually turned out to be ahead of pre pandemic
budget forecasts, because a number of tech companies have stayed successful ip oaths and generated by big big big tax windfalls. The flip side of that is that big cities, so like New York, San Francisco Chicago cities they expect to have White Collar Office workers, who are generally more affluent than the city's residents coming into town like every day, buying lunch going to dry, cleaner I'm going out to dinner stuff like that, like cities have taken a hit, largely be is like literally there aren't many people around the maiden some cases like the full time resident population stropped, but even just beside that, like every every major city has more commuters. That residents and the computers have really dried up, so they ve got some of the big problem there. But despite all the like blue state bail out,
rhetoric on the state level. There is absolutely no correlation here so like Florida has no income tax relies heavily on sales taxes for its revenue and, in particular, council alive tourists. Come in terms of Florida has taken a huge head. It's just that like their guns, there is right wing and doesn't care, and it's like this is part of the black perverse politics right and, if you remember back in two thousand, nine forward also had a really bad state budget situation because of housing, bubble effects and so far it is governor at that time really embraced. The above administrations call for fiscal stimulus. He was republican. He wound up being run out of office. And is now a house Democrat I so but run to scientists is not going. Let that happen to him and he stands stand Foursquare against a blue state bailout that would help Florida and not help California at all
and I mean that's. The thing to me were like I feel, like the prospects that the congressional politics Jesse hopeless to me right, like Republic, created this directive? That is in fact, to all and there, like a hundred percent again on it and, like I just don't know what you could possibly do about and this is also a situation where time is of the essence right, like a good friend of mine, works in state government and like they're, gearing up for the session to start and like you know, what extra money, even if it comes too late sure. But what they can do is, to a certain extent, trained by what they will need to do. If the money doesn't come right. So there and because states have balanced budget requirements in the federal government doesn't like they can't exactly. They get exactly plan for like right. The news from feds t care and then bill the rest of the budget. The way that they would. You know that that they would like to do it. So it's devil
situation, where they can't wait several months to know whether or not there will be money and You know to be said that this does seem to be a big of a potential political sticking point. It does raise questions about like how long weighed the vital administration and irrational Democrats view will to stick it out and fight on this. In the sunset I have when talking to buying people and sort of Democrats in Congress is that they are well well aware that they don't have a ton of time, like at least some of them will say, listen back in two thousand and nine. We sort of- let Republicans like drag this out for a long time and kind of go back and forth with us and then eventually be like hey we're not, going to play ball, and so it seems like now. The idea is like: let's get this out
see how it goes. Try as best we can- and at least we have no reason to say. If Republicans won't go for it, hey look. We tried and now we are going a different route, and that is because you guys would not go for it, but I think, like there is a pretty good sense that they need to to not. Let those drag on for ever and ever, and you shall or one thing on that, this sort of like a headline situation here, which is which is interesting, is that you know look up like the Cbo output gap. Measure you know they say it's about three hundred billion dollars in two three out of twenty Twenty and you know falling, like. If there was no stimulus swayed like you expected on me to grow, you expect people to get vaccinated things like that. So if you look at the one point, nine trillion- it's it's cortical too big relative to the
Similarly, the state and local aid in Bidens proposal is bigger, there's about two, two hundred billion dollar tax revenue, shortfall and they're. Talking about about three hundred and fifty billion dollars in total state and local aid and they're talking about a second package of yours. So something that I like about this is that, if you, if you see that speech, they gave Joe Biden to read, if you see what JANET go in has in her prepared testimony, and if you see what Brian Dice and Bridegroom Amu Tree have been saying in their briefings with reporters. They all say the interest rates are very low, so it is a timely opportunity to make deficit financed investments in making things better, which is a different way of looking at it from the sort of like top down like what do we unquote need? They are looking at
what do we have the possibility to achieve very summers who was a major democratic Party economic advisor for a long time? You know he's been quite critical of this approach in public. He says it's gonna. It does too much that it it over state me lights, economy. I've talked to other people who were involved in the above, a White House but have not been back for the Biden Party. And you know they have different levels of critical mass of this. But they all agree that, like mathematically, it doesn't Anna correctly
which is, I think, a sign of a real brick greatly. The Bigham initiation has a lot of like getting the ban back together. Vibes, but the particular subset of the ban to they have gotten back together, has a view of this, which is a little bit different from some of the other participants. They are not in tissue painting a pivot to deficit for Dutch coming down the road, and I think that's I mean if you ve, ever read anything I've written on vocs about this. That is a hundred percent. The perspective that I endorse anybody. It's it's reflect and interesting to see public officials talking about borrowing costs being low and therefore the opportunity to do things rather than And oh, it's so terrible that we have all his death by you know we'd, like we really gotta stop the economy from collapsing because this is not. I mean
I would say the the formed a billion dollars right. The parties about public health is like legitimately, like rescuing the economy, but so much of this is just like. It would be better for people to have more money. It would be better for state local government to be able to do stuff instead of do budget cuts, and I find that very refreshing yeah I mean it seems like a kind of shift. I don't know there is kind of a growing consensus among some Democrats at least they're like hey, maybe it's time to stop wearing so much about the deficit, especially, I think, after Republicans, in two thousand and seventeen passed their giant tax bill, but it's kind of refreshing to see this kind of stuff, and I think especially the more that we talk about inequality and sort of what it looks like in the economy like understanding just because the economy top line number, it's good doesn't mean it's good for everyone, and this feels like a reflection of that. Why not make life better for everybody
like, even if they are at the lower end of the scale right who's going feel like there are few strands going into that kind of growing over Is it definitely Emily? I think that an end. I couldn't tell you why this is the case, but it does appear to me that, after a long time of Democrats, being more worried about Republicans criticising them for deficit spending than Republicans being worried about its spending in a win win. Republicans were in power that, like it seems likely critical Mass of Democrats. Kind of hit hit a point of no tolerance, right. Ok, this is no longer something that we can take seriously in our own political considerations. I think another friend of this, though, is that there is a sir, kind of capturable surplus in the fact that the economy is a little bit better in some respects than conventional wisdom suggests the we need to be laying generally, you know and adds mattresses. This isn't like all of us to talk about separately on the timely,
people who are keep the Trump Administration and people who weren't like die hard from critics generally tended kind of understand, intuitively the that things were going, Okay, and now it seems to everybody that things are going, not okay, so too extend that some of it actually is kind of ok, you can capture that and use it by telling people. Yes, we know everyone is hurting right now and we are going to help you hurt less and kind of quiet. We make sure that the debt that money is being used to help the people who are hurting more without seeming like an obvious transfer, because the top line on the economy. Is that everything is a disaster right now because like american society is a disaster right right, normally like things are going badly, is a kind of like economy, first assessment but it's like, I feel, like my life is going really badly and it's not that's not like a dollars. Incense.
Calculus it's alive. My five year old hasn't been able sees, grandparents were getting ready for his second pandemic. Socially distanced birthday party, Legged, Skinner, everybody, like life's a bump right, that's an opportunity to join, wait a sense of like psychic solidarity. Like her all dealing with big problems that are not any individual persons faults and so let's go help, It seems like the minimum wages kind of exception to this rule. Because minimum wage is something where it's very clear who is going to help end fer. You know many people who are politically overpriced,
that person is not you, and so I'm wondering what people think about trying to turn a minimum wage hike into an economic recovery measure in this sense and whether it makes sense from a policy as well as a political perspective. I mean people like more money, it's like just from a political perspective, so you about Florida back in November had a ballot measure to prove fifteen dollar minimum wage in Florida said ghastly for I also voted for Donald Trump and for Republicans, so I think we get beyond the policy perspective of which you can debate about the US. It is, don't always have it. Evidence about the fifteen dollar minimum wage and what it really means is lake. By and large a lot of people want to make more money a lot of people working minimum wage jobs or have had minimum wage jobs that it sucks to make seven hundred and twenty five an hour, because it sucks that if you want to take an uber to work or whatever, that's too,
hours of the day, and I think that it really intuitive. He heard tat thing like. I want this, whether or not this end up in a final ill or whatever is going on. The floor is hard to say bathing politically. It's like a lot of people think this is a good idea and if you think It's not a good idea, a kind of look like a jerk, at least with some, tweet so Enviro over the weekend. Evolving lego talk about going to be so expensive. Now, ok, why George why do they get in policy terms? Right I mean, I think I serve standard approach. Would suggest that a pandemic well, which is a recession, is a bad time to increase minimum wage because you have sort of surplus workers
essentially right and you want to re, employ them as rapidly as possible. Now you might say a pandemic is different from that, because, even though you have a lot of unemployed people, they're not exactly surplus they're, just sort of they're like on All right, I mean just like the borders that are closed are still they or even if they ve gone out of business. The physical capital is still their right to take a closed bar and turn it into an open bar is actually not challenging and, as you know, the bar tenders still exist and, and so the old we'll talk right could be one way of looking at it, and then you have sort of super normal returns at certain place, its weight. So, like I keep driving past that's food restaurants that have helped wanted up in their windows because they are experiencing unusual, high levels of me and people of Dr Throughs in particular, but they don't want a building permits
wage increase into their cost structure, so they are trying to get people to go work there. They're like sort of not right and if you force them all, to raise pay that might be actually helpful in some way is only being said right. Whatever Congress does with the minimum wage, they will do some point in the future. From now, with some kind of a phase in and like God, willing, it's like the pandemic will be over even before ally very aggressive phase is completed, so I think in some ways like you know, you can put it in the pandemic relief bill or not depending on Would you think but like it is not a pandemic measure? It's too it's too late for that and is gonna, be part of our our like our new reality or
We just won't happen at all. Bernie Sanders believes that he can put this into a reconciliation bill. He talked me into that briefly, but I have now once again talking. Out of it. The parliamentarian ruled that they couldn't repeal the affordable, correct mandate in a reconciliation bell, and that's why it has the weird structure where the penalty was reduced to zero but the mandate still exists. Can we actually just walk through briefly, because I suspect, because it's going to come up a lot over the next couple of years, what you can and can't reconcile? Oh, my god, it's hard to say what you can to get rid of the so ok, so a bill that passes as part of a budget. Reconciliation measure goes through what they call the bird bath named performer Senator Robert Bird, who wrote the rule and people can object to various thanks, saying that they dont meet the test. So if it changes social security, it doesnt meet the test if it were
eases the budget deficit over the long term defined as outside the ten year, sepia scoring window it doesnt meet the test and then, if it superfluous to budgetary cost, it doesnt meet the test. This is where a lot of things get we're began. Minimum wage increase has large budgetary facts right, but, by the same token, repealing the individual Mandy had budgetary facts, but the parliamentarians ruling was it the budgetary effects there were incidental to what was being described, whereas lowering the penalty they felt would be. Ok, I'm sea could put it down right. Am I mean? Who cares this wound up being a point of contention later in constitutional, the negation
but so it could be that you cannot raise the minimum wage to fifty dollars an hour, but you can impose a one hundred percent employer side. Payroll tat on wages that are below fifty dollars an hour, in which case everybody would raise their pay to fifty dollars an hour but I don't know of Democrats or interests in getting cute or of what it is there saying exactly, but potentially they would right. I mean certainly if it were up to Bernie Sanders, who chairs or wheelchair the relevant committee he would things through you know, by hook or by crook. I just don't know of the other. Members were actually embrace a kind of idea how senators think about the sanctity use and a procedure is a little bit of a black box. As far as I'm concerned They say things that don't necessarily make sense, and sometimes they're engaged in very strategic calculations about what they want to do, but other
times it's just like them? You know Tom Carper, feeling nostalgic and Why does it the long waiters? Hang it's hard to say what you can do and reconciliation it's always a little bit of a moving target. We can finance all things and isn't it that, like the parliamentarian can say no, but then let them my conall Harris could conceivably say. Yes, re willing to desert wine. Trent lot fired the power material and got a different parliamentarian synod process does not bind the Senate right in this part of why it's always hard to say what exactly it is. The members are, because the sun it makes its own rules as saw with them that the nuclear option, debates on filibustering. It requires a two thirds about to change the rules of the Senate. Unless the majority decides not to do it, I don't know
It's a little her to say, but it's like the houses of Congress are fully sovereign bodies and a majority of them can make the rules say whatever it is. They want the rules to say, but they don't operate on that Calvin Ball Basis like right up until the moment when they decide they want to. So. You know what we're gonna have to see what you have to say. I do think it is worth kind of underlining I'd just going to make explicit the comparison between what you're saying now what you were saying like ten fifteen minutes ago matter like there are things in which it is very clear that the consensus among like Democrats in positions of power has shifted I'm the Obama years, and there questions like how aggressive tactically do you want to be in reconciliation? You know what lake, how much are they willing to blow up the rules of the Senate that its? Not that it doesn't seem like there's been a shift, but that
conversation either isn't as much of a consensus has been taking place in public, and so that really is going to become like an open question on the. How aggressive is the binding illustration and going to be how aggressive our congressional democrats want to be like this, I think, is something where there's probably going to be some fights down the road, because we're not getting the clear signals that we're getting from the moonlight deficit spending, okay, now yap slowly it less. Let's take a break with the second. Our white paper support for this episode comes from America's leading beverage companies who are working together to reduce plastic waste in our environment. Not all plastic is the same. America's beverage companies are carefully designing. One hundred percent recyclable plastic bottles, including the cap's their bottles, are made to be remained, and they are investing in community recycling programmes to help get more bottles back, so they can be turned into materials used to make new bottles that completes the circle and reduces plastic waste.
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different times in my life. Super helpful appiano, like it's really expensive and sometimes hard to find some good better help is like making this much more accessible, is great for these pandemic circumstances, but just like a cool model. So this punk, the sponsored by better help and listeners. The weeds get ten percent off their first month at better help. Dot com, slash weeds, get started today, better help, dot com, slash weeds visit, better h, e l, p d, calm, slash, weeds and join the over one million people who have taken charge of their mental health with the help of an experienced better help. Professional. I gotta one here. It is called trauma at school, the impacts of shootings and students, human capital and economic outcomes, Eureka Cabral, Buckingham King by russian Slater. Molly, Schnell and punish, want labelled, advantage of the large volume of school shootings in the state of Texas between the years of nineteen, ninety five and two thousand, and sixteen to create
difference within differences model that looks at it of administer If data on particular student outcomes is all the good weeds stuff, I minutes it is a little bit horrifying, yes to the state of Texas. By the way. This is the second time. In the last several months, we ve been able to use a paper coming out of taxes, because taxes does a particularly good job of linking its high school in college. Negative data Jes exactly Texas, is it is. It is a data bridge. They are the Sweden of State data, although also have a lot of school shoot so I mean I guess this is not shocking. Appendages. Traumatic too, five, a shooting at your school and expose students are more likely to miss. Cool demoralising, be chronically ab said the more likely to end repeating agreed. They become less likely to graduate high school low, level of college enrollment, lower levels of college, graduation, lower levels of employment and lower levels of earnings
so, which is to say it does not fade out, I think you are obvious. If you want to say the trauma itself doesn't fade out or if it's just that missing. A bunch of school like at one point in your life, has bad kind of long term impact I guess my intuition is that it's it's the latter that it's just that, like you, is a bit like you can't get over the experience, but that I don't know it's like if your chronically absent in seventh grade, like that, can be a huge problem for you in life at risk. If we don't have a kind of like robust parental safety net to like bouncing back onto the right track here, and I think it is also possible that there is a middle way that there is a period in which what is it, you know you're academic performance is being hampered by trauma, and then there is a period in which your a performance performance is hampered by your academic performance, having been hampered in the past by trauma here.
What is interesting to me about this paper. This paper takes four You know the methodological but also kind of common sense reasons. The assumption that the people who are most, active device will see shooting sort of students that go to that school. That, like it's not you know even though this will shootings in this paper or not the kind of national story: small shooting, like mass shootings, which are more disproportionately white victims in white districts, then the broader bodies. Shootings they're, taking a lot of swill shootings that are in communities that are already disproportionately harmed by gun violence, and when we about that kind of gun. Violence intend to talk about legally, you don't want to talk about networks at the very individual level. You're in a limited number of people who are extremely high risk of being perpetrators of violence, victims of violence, knowing victims of violence,
why we're looking at here is the unit of analysis of if you were an ace all that had a shooting on campus during school hours. That is, you know that is were assuming is going to affect you and that that is like, on the one hand, broader, then, when we talk about you've done violence generally, but also narrower than the way we started to talk about school shooting because in the post, new town, post, parkland environment, a lot of the rhetoric around school shootings is about the effect on every kid, of the possibility that there might be a shooting at your school and he'll have downstream the effect of having one down drills, that kind of thing, but is seen as a had seen it there. A conversation around a water from a broader chilling effect associated with the possibility of us we'll shooting, rather than the specific harm, is borne by students who actually went to those rules.
So I think that this is, on the one hand, gallic it's not surprising, that you can see this difference in students who were who went to one of those balls was the students who did it, but on the other hand, it's a little that hard to assimilate into the way we ve talk about youth violence or the way we talk about school shootings, both of which dont assumed that there's going to be a big difference between somebody who goes to a school were shooting happened but didn't know any of the people involved and somebody who goes to school next door tat. Any one thing I've heard of that was interesting in this is like they looked at. What did deadened didn't make a difference in one of the conclusions they had, but that like mental health and So after the shooting didn't really make a big difference in terms of educational outcomes or income outcomes, and that kind of, I think, emphasize a little bit here. I moved to a unique point, but like kind of what do you do, after a shooting to help these people? If we know that these kids are kids that are going
a struggle throughout the rest of their lives, and I think that the estimated that they lose a hundred thousand dollars in income over their lives, which is a lot of money time, and so I get there. Well, there's a shooting at your school and like this is going to have a vaccine. It seems like out loosely counselling at school. Maybe you go to school, with more resources are less, doesn't make as much of a differences as maybe one would hope it would yeah. You know I mean anything there. I thought about reading, MRS that there was a paper that I'd read the guide fairly widely discussed, I think, may better than a weeds white paper a few months ago, and it was looking at least shootings in school. Communities and its impact and its ghetto. It's a broadly similar to that which raised the question of what was that something better Geller about police officers. Or are we just learning a sort of general, less said about like violence, trauma and people's lives? I think
qualitative. According that I read from Palestine and wash imposed about served like neighbourhood cry. Man school sheet, she's a schools rapporteur for your hearing DC you know with suggesting a similar thing right that it's like. If people are being murdered on your block, that makes it hard to focus in school later people were murdered in your school, then exit to focus on school later. If police officers are killing people in a way that dumb, Its media attention, because it's more noteworthy, then cortical regular crime like that also has the same kind of impact, particularly on people who see themselves as similar to the victim strike, which is over I understand of all I'm asking of you just think about human beings, that's kind of what you would anticipate. Let the persistence of the problems I do think is noteworthy. I mean that's where, like rigorous statistical evidence is really helpful, that we cannot into it the like it's better to
have men open fire and your school, but is actually you don't do that the costs says in his Emily was saying, there's an obvious like remedy alleys that we know a fright other than to not do it. We don't have really effective, like post hawk means to make this I'll be ok, but is also the case that, because, as the inner generally, when we talk about gun violence, we're Talkin only a few different phenomena that it's it's not like me. You haven't easy answer to. How do we stop there from being students on the campus of school grounds during school hours anyway? Rightly, the conversation about mass shootings tens to be similar to the conversation on mass shootings in terms of policy remedies which may not be irrelevant at all phenomenon of well You're getting shot on campus during school hours for reasons that are identical to the reasons were, you would be shot on the screen on a Saturday. We
Neither have a good answer that isn't prevention. Nor do we have a good answer on prevention. I didn't have anything to frame and as an economic problem like, I think, sometimes yeah like, maybe not that don't care about shootings when it's like different ways to be like hey like this is important, not just because, like some kid at a school were scared, but also like this is going directly brother yeah it's right. It's also not for nothing, not terrible, tell it like it will not die. They probably useful to think about it. This is survivor issue because there's so much emphasis on what is lost when people are killed, that to run amber that lake, even though it can be very difficult to talk about this in a way that lake doesnt seem disrespectful to those who are working loved ones like yes, there, This trauma associated with having to go into a building where you know that someone was shot and like that Something that is going to affect you in later life, shipping, you know, beyond their surf specific four corners, this unit, one what we ll turn my covered relief right and it's the wickedness
in that like something really bad has happened to every body do no particular fault of there One appears to have inspired a more generous way of thinking about public policy right and will obviously like. We hope that there will never be a pandemic. We hope that there will never be a school shooting. We hope that weaken the mediate this. The fact is that, like happenstance has a lot of impact on people's lives, sometimes hard to ascertain ways right, it's like if you were shot in a school shooting and left you disabled, everybody could see that and would know that about you, but if you, We're a survivor overshooting years and years ago, and it caused you to miss a lot of school and then it was hard to get back on track and say you wound up not going.
College he'll. They would look at you and they might well like it goes to show like you. Gotta work hard and stay in school right and just to understand that like life is complicated and people are impacted by a wide range of things that are not in there control. You know this is an important step to having a more humane view. If the world, because it's true right, I'm sure you could trace any of the individuals as administrative dataset endemic while, if Just hadn't gone out partying that one time, but you know but like who is like that, but I, like it ain't. Nobody who got someplace good, live like a life free of error so just looking at the fact that people end up in a bed situations have made mistakes. I think just under plays the extent to which this I've always a chain of like bad debts in the world area. Lessons about everything
It's bullshit owns a chain of badness it still. I sit in our pockets, of course, so it's a chain goodness and thank you Emily for coming on tags to user knock is, I think, to our sponsor and the weeds we'll be back Friday.
Transcript generated on 2021-05-13.