Ezra and Matt on the election results and the prospects for majority rule.
Chris Hayes and I process this wild election, Ezra Klein Show
Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias), Senior correspondent, Vox
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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work. I just wanna like put this out as a disclaimer on this whole episode, and this whole moment we don't know alive.
That we need to know what to say anything confident about the selection.
The final results, the exit polls are totally unreliable, so we're we're all-
operating as have, as I said before, in in a bit of an epidemic, fog welcomes, or another have said, the weeds, unbox media, podcast network. I met you Ecclesiastes, I'm here with Ezra Klein it
Noone eastern time on Thursday November. Fifth, I was hope
that we would know who won the election by the time we recorded the shell? But we do not
and the show must go on, so I am here with Ezra
and we're gonna talk about what we think we now adviser, hoo hoo hoo is gonna win the elections?
This is what people really want to know. I think at this point,
Joe Biden looks to be on track to win the election. I am not
many a time at home. On this, I don't have any knowledge of his that people who are listening here in the future and I can have, but the expectation is hidden
both in Pennsylvania. He seems to still be somewhat favoured in Arizona somewhat favoured in Georgia. In Nevada is a little bit unclear to me. I just because we don't have to know some key things there. I saw how much what what bunch expect
that is a little bit unknown. I don't think the question at this point is really well.
Not Biden, will win. I mean if he doesn't, he doesn't, but
The question is: what sort of governing situation he's going to encounter cell in the Senate? It looks like
Then a control is likely to be decided by two.
Special elections in Georgia. Georgia has
and bluer. Since we ve gone through this last couple of times I mean it's got bluer since Obama lost by five points and South Georgia is a place for Democrats. Can we
It is a place for Joe Biden may win, but in general the Party that Windsor Presidency does intend to do well in the media.
Um aftermath of special actions, because the losers of the presidency are upset and wanna take revenge. So I think it is pretty likely that biting his can facing Mitch
on all Senate, which obviously constraints governing agenda in really really profound ways we can talk about this, but but align I've been
here the Democrats may
in the presidency and and and boost democracy,
the house it looks like it's going to be a loss of somewhere in the range five hundred and twenty seven the seats for Democrats. I think that's also not fully clear yet, but plus your means feet.
But it'll be a thinner majority, and then
the state legislature, above all, which is important, because redistricting is going to happen. Democrats made basic,
no gains. I mean I give down a little bit on the margin, but Republicans are going to control that process in states which is further going to
and there are advantages at different levels, principally in the house, and so I think, bodies
when, but I think that the zone
victory where he would have enough support at the federal level to govern,
and then to build something closer to a democracy in this country is unlikely to manifest, and it's not gonna manifest not biggest him.
I win a ton of votes, he's probably going to have a gigantic popular vote margin, maybe bigger or looks likely to be bigger than Obama in two thousand and twelve or bush. No four Democrats are going to win more Senate votes, more house votes, but the map is so again
Some did anything absence of a true gigantic. Landside isn't enough for Democrats to actually get a governing majority anymore yeah I mean did so in a way we talk about dubbed the map is against them and
put that means. Random uterine met the house that the laws of how seats, which you know is interesting, read its in some ways: the most suitable deflating thing. But when you, when you look at the distant
swear, it seems like Democrats are losing. These are districts that Trump wine, even while losing the popular vote right. Just the map is drawn such that Trump wins a majority. The districts yes
and so I dont know how to convey what is happening here correctly
most of american history, the ways in which the political system were built- and
ways in which geography distorted it did not have a routine partisan valence, because most american history, there wasn't the parties radiological mixed and in graphically mixed. As of,
that many times people can read my book on this, but importantly dense.
We should not highly correlated with party vote like you, you, you can look at in nineteen, sixteen
density a place, and we can do nothing about how it would vote, not as you functionally
thing about held about. There is simply no densities that both republican and rural areas are overwhelmingly republican and the entire system is set up,
you make density to over, represent rural areas, but then on top
We have a very unusual system in which you have partisan actors.
Ministering elections, drawing districts and, of course, at the Supreme Court level, now
setting down rulings on how and on what is appropriate in both those in both those pursuits, and so
you get into what I've called before this doom loop of democracy were a party that cannot win
routinely. Majorities majorities of vote will begin. Turning,
democracy itself and trying to make it easier to when power without winning votes and that his exact,
what has been happening with republican Party for years now and by the way this is happening in context of a president
public and president right now, who is absolutely fulfilling the fears of his critics
has certainly started up. An autocratic attempt in enough to functionally when the election in a coup has been tweeting, stop the count
is sending his allies, Pennsylvania and
again putting them in court to try to stop the count. That's not really going anywhere. He has supporters were met,
sing outside the places where they are counting absentee ballots, counting mail.
I'll do stop the count, of course, in places where he's behind
count their yelling, you know keep counting on it.
What'd, you noted very, did stop the count. Exactly as I am speaking. Donald Trump would lose. Dome trumpets is behind in the states representing two and seventy electoral votes, but I think the fact that he will lose if they stop the count, even as he is yelling
The count just goes to show you how much a republican or trumpets identity is becoming connected than an anti small democratic set of impulses and sentiment.
It's a really dangerous thing. I mean in general. I think Fox NEWS has done a reasonably good job here on this
make it making any on the widest perspectives on their saying Vienna. They dont want to count these votes it if you, nor postmark by election day by became an after
prepare and and and and others who do you- think we're really pushing back on her. The fox in his decision ask, has done a good job, but if you are watching Fox prime
Sean Hannity, Tucker, Carlson Ingram. Their
fully all in on this being a rigged election. So we are seeing a party that is using its power.
Try to entrench monetary and rule and bull apparently have the power to keep doing that. A party that is ideologically turned against democracy, a party that is relatively supportive of a president who now
Election has turned against him is simply saying the election should be thrown out. The counting of votes should be stopped. It doesn't look like republican officials early,
the winning the president at this moment in that call, but I dont think you get so much credit in american politics for simply passively sing.
Thing. While that is being done, I think it would be good to see a huge course of contact.
Nation of the president's actions, we are just some
not hearing that like we are not hearing that that you know. People know that my big thing has been that this is a fight for democracy and I think that
on some of obviously getting jump out of office, if that's how it ends up, is a good thing in that fight, but a lot more
needed to be one here and it wasn't.
This is sort of the question that I have looking at these results, which is that in a week
this conversation, this conversation talking about the Senate gerrymandering, talking gerrymandering, talking about how the density shifted, has shifted american political institutions, and then we shifted pretty rapidly about Trump and
sort of autocratic personality, his disregard for the rules, his effort to sort of illegitimate. Let's sit down vote counting, and I mean I wonder: do you think that there has been
Given that my we knew these facts about the map right, they ve been visible for four. You wasn't too much emphasis from liberals and from Democrats on the idea of Donald Trump as a threat to democracy like when I listen to
Barack Obama saying, like democracy is on the ballot this here and ate, and other people saying that innovation,
to me like they are talking about truck. They are not talking about institutional reform in the United States,
It's so I dont know on this. I have a couple of thoughts here and there unfocused. I want to say
also. I just wanna like put this out as a disclaimer on this whole episode, and this whole moment we don't know a lie
that we need to know what to say anything confident about the selection?
the final results. The examples are totally unreliable, so we were all
operating, as have, as I said before, in in a bit of an epidemic, fog, Boadicea couple things on this, so wine, the idea that Democrats have folk
on Donald Trump, strong man impulses as the threat to american political institutions as opposed to the republican parties effort to trenches,
or carrying rule pathway. I think that is correct act. You think
got, have been more focused on the wrong threat. I think that the Trump threat has for some time it's been clear that it is something
I would like to do, but not something he really has of the focus capacity or support to do I'm so
scary- and I think it should be taken as a dangerous thing and republican parties, relative passivity and its face occasional, come oftentimes act outright complicity,
and you know among likelihood that the staunch remembers republican Party just ignore it like Peter
ignorance of it it just like a terribly scary,
situation, where you realize that assembly or better doing basically just do it here. Meanwhile,
our problem, but he's been quite successful in this in internal open up this, this monitoring pathway. You know
time. Democrats have been trying to win an election here raid in order to change and you this you need to actually wind power and so spent.
A lot of time. Fighting about the rules I dont think is any it. I've never heard anybody who is good at winning elections or good pulling elections. Tell me that
Is he a winning message? You have Democrats really do the kinds of things I think they should do if they, when the centre
get the filibuster and give statehood. Did he seem
Rico interesting, move fast on a bunch, democracy or forms. I wouldn't say like make it a giant message for you
here and fight about it. I was a do it and move on to like delivering real benefits in people's lives with a governing majority. Assembled now does not give got the power for that, but but but that would be my my theory of it and then I think, as there is a lot
takes going around, and I'd like to hear your views on this matter about whether not Democrats focused too much on a trump himself
This was an argument that got made after Clinton's loss in twenty. Sixteen, I'm now hearing it again, sort of with with
and, although I think it's a beating a bit as people get
of the Florida shock and relies abundance. Gonna put together pretty bad,
winning majority. It looks like, however, again a bigger pocketbook majority than Obama didn't twenty twelve, that somebody
and that's by the way, not in a world where Donald Trump didn't get turn out, trumps coalition expanded and while they biting did lose a spam.
Support and and and there are some things that are concerning their biting coalition- expanded
and so is some reason to think actually bite in play the messaging of his well. If you look
the cuts in the projects vit assess ads
biting ran this very positive campaign, he didn't run a substantially anti trump campaign when he was focusing unpersuadable voter such different than what
Do it the day and see in your big speech or something that's much more about gum your base,
and I think, a lot of the places where we all to an inner more about the base. But if you look at the campaign, the mess
During the way Biden ran on when trying to target these voters,
We were running a much more positive jobs, focused issue, focused campaign and, by the way, much more so than Trump Trump's campaign was much more negative in terms of its advertising than binance was and, at the same time, one
listing. Thank you. You mentioned Matt. The the house results where did extent, Republicans getting pick ups there in places Trump one.
But it also does seem that republicans are running a little bit ahead of Donald Trump in the house and you ve tweeted to this effect. But Donald Trump appears to be less popular and a worse message
you're, then a lot of other Republicans out there one reason demonstrates won't twenty eighteen. Is it like? The only way to express prostration against report against Donald Trump was to vote against their will
begins on the ballot. But now there are more opportunities to split that you could not like Donald Trump but like produce, for instance, and so that appears to be playing some role here,
is having some reason to believe that democratic focus on tromp to the extent it was done for that for the basin and in the right then use was a reasonable call to make, but- but I like the here where we are thinking on on this- is right now why you know this sort of related to the question. I asked you of whether you think Democrats emphasise trumped too much
which I did not necessarily in terms of their campaign messaging but their own thinking right. I think if you look at Biden's campaign, you got to say we're not
but it looks like being won the election, which is his job right and if you take seriously a lot of the rhetoric that you know, progressive people have deployed over the past four years, not just campaign rhetoric right but like internal progressive conversations that Donald Trump is an existential threat to american democracy. Then that seems to imply that whatever the vine campaign thought they had to do to be. Tromp was the right thing to do: read to eliminate this existential threat. Now, if you think what I think smart progressives thought, which was that, whenever you think of Trump on the merits he's like a below reply
meant rate republican candidate, whose clowning gave Democrats a golden opportunity to try to win a landslide election. That would let them fix some of these institutional things. Then you do have to question right. So it's like binds message. He did a lot of covert messaging right because trumps covered. Poland was really bad, binding, see this trustworthy on that issue. So he really emphasise that, but that's not a topic that says to voters o also. You need to vote for a house Democrat.
You don't even like it's a it's an open invitation to ticket splitting which there seems to have been some ticket splitting mostly in favour of down ballot republicans. Yet you say that, like an it Senate, re slacken in Texas Right where Biden, Loss Texas, but it was, it was pretty close, but Mj Hagar lost like really really really badly.
Because if what you say to people is that the problem in America is that this maniac with his terrible twitter feed who doesn't listen to the experts as president, but you have some doubts about the progressive agenda, then it's like yeah, you can vote for Biden and you vote for John Cornet
because there's a lot of things you can say about John Cournand, but like he's not a loose cannon with its twitter feed, he doesn't say crazy stuff. Like he's just a conservative
Republican, who wears a suit and he's normal
I don't know. I don't know that we have like really strong reason to believe that a different message in choice would have made a difference there. But it's it's the kind of thing you look back on right liquid when you feel the feelings that come out of this election, which I think for a lot of people for plugged in progress. Is they feel bad about
this outcome right, they don't feel hooray. The orange man is gone. They feel oh shit, we kind of blue or shot at gaining unified control in Washington, and it's not clear when it will ever come back
right so twenty twenty two Republicans. It can have a really good chance of winning the house, because
The common party normally losers in the mid terms and also report.
Kids, are gonna, get a real optimize all of their Jerry Manders.
Like his gerrymander lose efficiency over the course of the ten year cycle, because politics changes
I'm so Democrats may well lose the house, and twenty train to it'll be really hard to win Senate seats. Then ask then you get twenty. Twenty four were saved by
does really well there, but that's the worst Senate right. That's the repeat of the terrible twenty eighteen map,
Democrats. So then you got another mid term, so now
Like I mean who knows like, we might have a Mars colony by the end of two Biden terms right, I don't see a
path from where we are to a unified, democratic control of government.
Unless they are able to sort of pull the inside straight of winning
Georgia and then winning two different special elections. The air- and in one thing I just add on real fast- is that if then, you say well, that obviously means by should be way more aggressive on executive actions affect their publication of a six three Supreme court. Also limits is movement, they get sick exactly, I mean, and you have to think about all the sort of parts of the city
As at as a moving part- and it's like- I- don't- I don't see it like
Imagine I have no idea what's gonna happen, recover
why is in the future? I can imagine things going in a bunch of different directions, but the directions range from Biden becomes a popular and successful president who doesn't do all that much stuff you no kind of like second term Bill Clinton to its like a huge catastrophe. You know like big crises and and stuff like that. I just like I don't see from here going forward a big win on climate change, on health care on anything coming forward, and I just don't know
that that was conveyed to people like before the election, like exactly how desperate the circumstances were. I think that's true. I it's tricky because,
it's so much of his ends up and expectations right.
There is a lot of Democrats because the
falling, which had the sort of eight to nine point? Biden we'd feel super, let down today at a great
station Chris Haze on another occasion they just come out yesterday, and he made this good point about this. I thought, which is it that was never reach
The problem in journalism is we treat that is if, like that, was the real thing and the like v like the reality.
Actually in is a divergence from that universe, which should be treated as true, but could appalling was wrong. I'm
If you look at what happened in much of the Senate races, if you look at the way the pointed same thing in the same states for four trumpet twenty. Sixteen the pulling was wrong
the picture is giving you of the electorate with an incorrect picture like it did not happen. I mean there
the pulling national is not can be super far off. I'm seeing estimates run about four point. Five point bite in now.
About victory, but the nation doesn't boat, and so it just wasn't the case. That Biden was
wrong or Democrats in Genoa strong in these states as pulling keep saying they are. This is like it underestimated undemocratic. They stay
to some degree twenty eighteen, I'm in Georgia. Florida were big disappointments for for Democrats that year it underestimated them obviously catastrophically and twenty sixteen
you're in a situation where what price
it had begun to believe as possible may not have been possible, like I think at such an important point here
is to say not that they don't have enough votes, but they do have a vote in the places they need. The boats and maybe a dick
message on the margin within better, and maybe it would be worth something. This is a problem of counterfactual, some, the crew,
diversion of counterfactual thinking is we did this. It didn't work out as we hoped we should it on that. But, of course that could have worked out worse than this. If you go back six eight months, nobody thought Biden could win
the Senate right like if you go back- and you read like vocs coverage of the Senate campaign from beginning of Vienna, like
when you eighteen the view.
The descended is not really in reach for Democrats and it was cruel
on a virus? The change that so I,
Your stand, then, why Democrats were emphasising the issue that was had reshaped the electorate, alleys perceptually, the other things
working like there's, not a reason, really do believe they could have won the Senate,
existing conditions. Indeed, except they could they tried. I mean bucolic. Look at the John, also produce debates.
There's a super viral moment it's about pre existing conditions, so I dont know what to say exactly about messaging messaging.
We think about argument messaging is you can always believe that your way would have worked a bit better and those like an endless joke on twitter right now of everybody saying this, that that the key thing to understand that the selection is it
it my views were right all along and there's a real truth to that, because you can't disprove it. You, like Andrew solvents
Is it our propagation of identity, politics and Bernie Sanders people? You don't make any art
materialism. Unlike Hillary Clinton, focusing condoms.
One by a landslide in this, but I'm not really asking about about
no I'm just too I'm speaking it made like broader, like the communication like inside the community.
But what would without have done like they talked to progressive more about how the Senate is
yet took Cunningham I've, I'm I'm just reflecting. You know
wire. What what we were all doing these past several years right because like could you go back in time if you had in your mind right this to the real pulling the whole time if it just always looked like
Biden was on track to win. You know a narrow electoral college victory, but at but a solid popular road vigour
while losing ground in the house and making insufficient gains, said the Senate. I just like what the Poles were saying not long.
Like I would have emphasised. Donald Trump bless like in my journalism. If you dont have been like not not necessarily saying, is like a vote getting tactic but like I would have been trying to make it clearer to people that, like this outcome, we were headed for was actually now
not very good. Oh, I think I fit I think so, but you're hearing is we talk about your book cuz. I actually look back at my journalism on this question of the pastures. I feel pretty good about it. I feel like
I, if I may say,
I've spent a lot of time emphasizing the democracy problem and have been trying to raise the alarm on it, and I think one reason I have decided a different view on this in you is. I have been surprised by
how well that has not just because it not coming for me, but how rapidly that Congress
has advanced. I,
if you had told me a couple years ago, how plausible it would have seemed the Democrats would get rid of the Philippines
they took the Senate and possibly reshape the composition of the court and take seriously be seen Puerto Rico, statehood and aid
one and each hour for out of told your dreaming. But I think Democrats came to appreciate this
more significantly more rapidly than I had anticipated
so to me, I'm sure
More than one can do, and, like the question of, why should we all them says Trump? Globalized knows it is always a reasonable question, but I
was really struck by how rapidly that conversation move forward over the past six months, and I think the tragedy of this is that
I mention that a year ago I would have said the Democrats can't retake the Senate, but also
told you a year ago. Even if they could, even if you assured me somehow they would there's no fucking way-
Can you get rid of the filibuster and then three
ex ago. I would have told you Democrats, can we take the Senate and they may get rid of the film
faster and a lot more besides that
and now you know compared to that world, I'm like kind of depressed, because I think too much rising, because she's really important. Like my last pre election podcast with Stacey Abrams was Oliver.
Accreditation and we barely mentioned Trump because he's not the fundamental
impediment to it, but this moved. I think Democrats get this now,
I don't think they really have a way to act on it, because the thing that is putting
behind the eight ball on. This is the thing that is making at heart. Defects like the fact that they are so like the system is so
rigged against him winning enough power to change. The system is also
They can't win enough power to change the system right. It's like this. It's a guest topology eating itself. Let let let's take a break in and then and then I want to talk more about.
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Calm, slash, weeds and joined the over one million people who have taken charge of their mental health with the help of an experienced better help professional. So you know when Trump wine in twenty.
Sixteen that was a very I mean a lot of people found a very upsetting, but it was
very morale boosting in its way
was incredible activation among people who didn't like Trump. We saw
huge explosion in grass roots enthusiasm. There was dislike incredible string of democratic special election winds and they really carried through to this election right. Like you, look at these Senate races, the Democrats lost,
candidates in South Carolina North Carolina Texas. They had tons of money right like Democrats, Demagogy Willie fired up about this, and where do you think that go sprightly when it turns out that
You don't text banking and giving all your money to Jamie Harrison, and you know clicking on
all the articles about how from is bad- and you know,
reading. Ezra takes about democracy like when that doesn't work. It seems to me that the republican advantage is likely to grow, because it's gonna be very demoralising to see that, like you're you're activism is not efficacious
Oh, I have a lot of thought on this, but believe me, let me start this missing. Adding is the wrong way to think about it. I think a lot of the activism was efficacious and peace.
The wrong counterfactual there had enemy the me framed this pressing something I was wrong about so over the past couple.
Here is something I said- a lot is Donald Trump one in twenty sixteen with Israel,
her thin minority majority right popular vote. Minority electoral college majority in these three states
so something I always argued with it. Okay, he has to expand his coalition and he's not doing anything to do that right.
He's not running a strategy of reaching out to new voters, do not running a strategy of winning over people who felt sceptical towards him, though hitch in this was he Comical
for a while, but then that ended with grown to virus so Trump like
my head with shrinking. You know
He was running a kind of more more now assuage our colleague, Jean Coastal has great pieces about how he's runs.
Streaming online strategy right with all this weird stuff about Hunter Biden and whatever that isn't how this played out Trump expanded his coalition.
He won over a significant portion of hispanic voters. We should be clearly not a majority of hispanic. Voters is something, but you know on the bad data we currently have. It looks like something like a five,
swing. I dont know what that will ultimately look like when all the data is in, but but this coolly some shift their and not uniform.
And now so we was shoes, are a good
here. It was really healthy gains. It seems like in South Florida and South Texas Pause, I guy just our data indicated he he gained Latinos in Massachusetts, which nobody cares about, but but in income
for New Nevada Arizona looks like maybe not, but you I mean is that it electrically significant group of people,
In addition to that, I dont even just mean expanded his his base in terms of groups who supported and be else it is, he he's, got more votes right,
the number of people voted like a literal number, people voted for Donald Trump, one way up between twenty sixteen,
twenty, so he turned out new people and what happened is not
binding in a low turnout, election of disliked incumbent, a boring challenger one- is it
by in, and the Democrats with. Obviously, Donald trumps help is immobilize, her turn
way way way more people to huge turnout election, and they didn't do that they would have lost like I
That is an important point in all this Democrats. Look,
Everybody will have the single biggest ho total of any president who has ever any candidate was ever one for the presidency. I dont think Donald Trouble
number two on that. I think that still gonna be an Obama record and number two, but will see right that accounting is not done but Dodge.
Absolutely could have won the election. He absolute could have often hit and it is hyper.
Realization among Democrats that looks like it will lead to him, not winning the presidency. So just one thing like Democrats should focus is like they did this. They did it like, and it didn't have to happen if they had
just voted at the same rate as in twenty sixteen dollars from winds again, and he doesn't look at this woman like that is going to happen and for all that, your hearing a little bit of a tired, say, pessimistic view on legislative politics. Here on the weeds like where the point is I, what can actually get done? It of us is a big fucking deal. The Donald Trump is not can be. President again.
If that holds big deal on executive actions, big deal on the Paris climate accords on all kinds of foreign policy issues. Big deal
in terms of the corona virus response big deal on a hundred other things right. The presidency is important, but then you get it
question I think about it: the erasing of like Janey Harrison in South Carolina.
It is a little unclear to me what the whole Senate picture looks like now. The South Carolina Jamie Harrison thing exploded at the end of the race into, but though the apparent on competitiveness, which out, looks to me like it, it was never truly
additive, I want to see what may looks like after the right choice. Voting plays out to see how closer far that actually was, but
Yeah. I mean democratic operate at a huge disadvantage in the Senate and the House, which possesses
mobilizing a fact when, paradoxically, what they have to do is hyper mobilise in order to overcome it, and it's a really tough position for a party to be an because it means
constant disappointments and nothing demobilize like disappointment. Right people don't tend to lose things like this and then say,
Well, I'm going to redouble my efforts next time at a certain point, you just kind of get sad and Democrats are going to have to somehow fight that and it's going to be even harder
in a weird wave, Joe Biden as President because of parties mobilise in office.
It it's much easier to mobilise your party in opposition and,
by then it is not going to be the kind of president who, like trumpets, hyper mobilizing by picking constant fights and criticism culture war that they use.
Nevertheless losing so that's gonna, be it a tricky space of it, but by degrees
one message I do want to give like yeah people donated
Monday, Jamie Harrison, but in terms of overall mobilization and energy and and intent. Here it worked right. It overcame trumps advantage. It looks like in electoral college to win the present
see, which is a really important thing. So I dont want the left to feel too path about this. One like this is a
this was an important thing they accomplished till then the question becomes: what do you to strategically
moving forward weight in a world where politics has changed fight if this was old fashioned politics, if this was a gilded age, politics
in which not that much money went into campaigns and actually the point of winning was that you would control the patronage and sort of money. Would flow out of the government into the party bosses pockets
you would look at this of your Democrat and he would say, but we just have to like change what our political parties all about and that being a political party. That is
our people to live in large measure areas doesn't make sense in a country where the electoral system is biased towards rural areas, like we just like
We want to win because that's our mission as a corrupt, nodded geological gilded age entity
its telling right that it's just a Jimmy Harrison raised a lot of money and then he lost
but he wasted so much more money than Steve Bullock, who also lost Babo, came closer
and more important bullock ran well ahead of Biden, unlike a lot of other Senate candidates, and that's because, like had bullock, one leg, liberals would have found him really inferior
at the club, has found his presidential campaign infuriating. Liberals, don't like job mansion very much, but its channel
Jane right, like any enthusiasm based politics in which you just getting people to.
On act, blue and and give away their money like they want to give money to
people who who speak to the up and
The map is against, even though it seems like you actually need candidates who speak to people who are very unlike the democratic base, and I dont
I guess what I dont see that invite my official recommendation would be that's what you should do like. You should run Joe Mansion type candidates in jurisdictions that are somewhere but
Georgia and West Virginia on the ideological spectrum, but
it doesn't seem real. Listen to me is there. Is there some other option that I'm missing,
I dont know. If there's another option of twenty two things on this and in one understood a constant misallocation of resources, you see in every election, be no bedouin TED crews, arguably, and in twenty eight p m. For some reason, Maxine Waters is opponent, raised, hung his money that that was like a republican version of this,
what boy who sees opponent raised a shit tenet money this year, yeah right and like just got, stopped, sir,
one money does little bless. You think he's been these elections,
to ah Conch
reading to. Politics is for most people an act of identity, expression
It is an act about your values. It is about who you two second world I'd, like a section in and in my book on this, about Heather sort of two
kinds of money and politics are sort of polarizing money and transactional. Money like this money that comes from being corporate lobbyist grew
and what they want is to get things done, but its corrupting right. It's transactional those money that comes from from small donors and be no people, act blue
and they want they want to win like they're, they're really excited, but they like it goes
where their enthusiasm is right, which is gonna be towards beating people? They really hate like tat,
We are losing ground on the left or a sea on the right or it's gonna go towards like somebody super inspiring, but it's not going to go to war
sort of boring candidate, who fits well until a western state, and so what you need, which party organisations is to be as wait like channel the money into the place of money should actually go, but, as you have put a sharp limits on donating to party
and so in theirs
of other ways to donate. Now, I'm like these other players are better at like getting donations and the parties themselves are kind of unpopular. So the party
like all the money like went to the party and the parties affected its match,
allocate resources and the like. It would have given a lot of money to Balikh, Muster Jamie Harrison, but that's not how this works, and so you just have a structural situ
then, with a way you raise. Money from small donors is activating things are excited about in activating the core identities and that both pushes for candidates who run
in a more polarizing way. I don't we
I think it is a bad thing, just like, literally as they like in order.
Mobilise you, have two polarize oftentimes on and it is
She's Maxie away from be centralized more generic distributors and money who might make different kinds of decisions there, people who try
do as an interesting way. I, if I'm not wrong here, I think the positive America guys how to find it was like the beat.
It's your retirement or something fund, and you might look at that.
Like our donating Amy, Mc Grath, but you should not really have done, but in fact it was a fund bill
around the iconography of Mitch? Mcconnell that was giving to the racism are actually competitive, and I thought that was a pretty smart move see you gonna need to do to do things like that. In turn,
What's gonna happen here, though, with like how do you run these candidates and how do you find them?
the only little glimmer here of bright spot Venus that that that, I think, is that our assumptions about how groups are gonna vote in the future may just not hole
so like. On the one hand, some he's getting a little shredded right now. Is this idea
arising demographic majority. For for Democrats, I mean because if Donald Trump can make gains on hispanic vote, acting the way he's acted. Then, like you know,
no real, like that really puts a nail in the idea that a diversifying amount,
is going to be an overwhelmingly progressive or Democratic America, and by the way, if you look at younger white voters like they're, pretty Trumpy too, it's just that
young generation is, is is brown or so if you begin to make begins among Hispanics, and you can really have a significant conservative play, there
On the other hand, one thing that I think is significant, is it that's it?
I like Biden made, it seems, improvements among white voters and probably suburban white voters, which are big part of the republican coalition, so that choice
It is not going to change somebody states pretty rapidly I'm over next for six years. It just is
hard for me to know what is a trend being seller
did by Donald Trump. What is a trend being slowed by
by Donald Trump Underway to sports politics and what
We not a trend at all and we variation election to election. Let's, let's, let's take a second break,
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I mean it's, it's very long run, but is, if you are you
It should sort of like white voters, quite a court in the suburbs, which is always card to know exactly what what what where the suburbs are. What do you mean by that? But if you, if you look at some of the states that are like all white people and totally uncontested right, so Kansas Nebraska, South Dakota Norton
Montana Wyoming. Those were not targeted by any body or the nobody was like. A bind was not like trying to
appeal to swing voters in hopelessly out of reach world plain states, but he gained about five percent relative to Hillary Clinton.
And I think more than that in two party vote share in all of those states. Its five states and those are the places that the Senate advantage sort of stems from so
you know gaining five points per cycle. You're still like three for his cycles off from winning, and it's not like an enormously hopeful
Eight, it reminded me of just exactly what you are saying that politics is always like twenty percent weirder. Then you would think
You know, and just like stuff well- but I mean just in terms of like stuff- happens outside the dimensions of the targeting strategies like Trump really
flooded the zone in the last couple months of the campaign with Spanish
which messaging when it became clear that he had enough
trinity there, but like it's, really obvious that when Trump won the election Republicans were not sitting around. Thinking like we're, ok are big shot now. Is it the Rio Grande?
really like that that wasn't the plan. It was something that kind of stuff
into a thing.
Probably because of black lives matter stuff coming up later gave Republicans at an opportunity that wasn't
immediately obvious to them. So I mean I I feel very like. If you make me make a forecast, I have a forecast of doom
Life is stranger than than you would think. I mean not just like the poles are some
wrong kind of sense, but, like human, human beings are pretty unpredictable. This is
in those places where what, when I did the book, I got a lot of questions about like Hetty fixes. What do you do? I keep saying to people that I can give you policies. It would work here, but the exact analysis of the book was that these policies are going to pass and right now I feel like that is being borne out, but that the other thing I said is it in.
Just like I wish. I had ended the book differently, which is not like. How do you solve it, which I think is the
for me lay a way we and Books Agnes, but just how could it change? How could the underlying structural, your change end,
we're seeing some of that now I mean over five herb over three or four election cycles right, the electric has ages into different electorate and the like. That's gonna change things young borders,
different in important ways over three or four election cycles,
things change in the way that different, like the culture operates like what are the issues are actually out in reality that people responding to? It really does move policy,
went went when the world moves at me, and I think this can be a lot of analysis on this panic boat this year, but something something is going on there. I will
if I'm by the way, trying to come up with with the positive points here, I think it is a good thing for the Republic in power,
we need to see real opportunity with hispanic vote and in December with the african american vote, which is it
you will is something be Trump Administration began to believe towards the end, any really did change their their messaging. On this I mean the point grotesque.
To me after talking Chuck Russia, the hispanic strategists spending but strategist for Bernie Sanders, but something of a striking about the trump admitted
our campaign this year was. It was not about immigration at all on the
We really really did not emphasize immigration and they really seem to soften. They really seem to soften their message, o with hispanic boat.
In an attempt to make some gains air and it seems to have worked. They were their running so different campaign and if Republican Seymour possibility there, it may be that the Republican Party itself softens in some important way
such that they are a different kind of coalition, trying to raise up different voices and appeal to for voters, I don't feel incredibly optimistic
about this particular line of analysis, but there is at least a glimmer in it where smart strategist dealing with a post trump world might
Do something about it because look like everything
you're saying on pretty descent
Holding a little bit in reverse on the presidential of all, which is to say that they are public and parties electoral college advance.
There is real, but even with it being real, they have now lost seven out of eight presidential
in terms of the popular vote. No, that has never happened to a party before in american history right, it's an unbelievable level. National weakness and some key states are changing fast enough that that
easy advantage, Michael Way for them. So if like Texas, really becomes competitive into cycles or of Georgia is already,
competitive and becomes more so over the next four years. Think this begins to look pretty bad for Republicans,
to be happy, never winning presidential election ever again either. So they're gonna be some incentives for Thou Party to change a bed
a pretty changing would be, would be a productive thing. Yeah you so I-
look. I'm rarely right about things, and I do want to. I do want to claim claim victory on the point. The point you just made that the ear your dogma Chris Hazan and Chuck Roger and trumps reached it tonight. My voters, because you know, if you, if you recall active republican Convention tromp, was clearly making a play
back in and hispanic voters, and there was a lot of denial about that among progressives like people would insist,
oh the reason he's highlighting all these people is to try to make white.
Suburban women feel less bad about voting for this racist and I'm sure that from Cambodia
the railroad. If white, suburban women found it reassuring that, like tromp pad like some black cops up there and you know hispanic business owners, but it was more simple them right, like Trump was trying to take advantage of the fact that life
We know like cops like tribe, small business owners like Trump. Some cops are black. Some small business owners are hispanic. Some cops are hispanic sums hobbism, you don't just like you can try to get those voters right and that's all he was doing and, as you were saying like its healthy for society,
I think, to have the political parties think a little bit more in those terms that, like all people have cross cutting identities like you know why some people centred somebody identity,
politics. Then somebody else like our but all politics, identity, politics, which is completely true right, but
a thin. I Jimmy you wrote a piece called all politics is any practice,
So, in that all been times, the politics that is practised is exclusively a politics of ethnic identity. Yes, and it is good for Merrick for political parties to try to activate a different set like just a different kinds of identity,
is to have a less like embittered universe. No, as it happens like strong activation of cop identity, I think is really dangerous. For Americans
Eddie because, like police forces as partisan footballs has really really sort of obvious problems, but I hope the Democrats. I hope that we don't get in
a conversation about like too much identity politics and then like
I said: oh well, all the politics and identity politics right, it's a question of like what identities and which politics and for what reason and the fact that Trump was able to pull off this thing
that people as of July were saying was like inconceivable. Just is striking and its own terms
not because it like means. Everyone was wrong about Trump, but because
does mean that people were wrong about the scope of political possibility is like people on the left, but also people on the right. Like the
This really high turnout election and it's not obvious that that hampered republic,
in any particular way. So like maybe next time they cannot be so obsessed with making it difficult for people to vote right like that would be
If it was hasty, it was just easier to vote rather than this being a constant political gambit like I wish. Conservatives would recognize what a straw
position they are ends in a lot of ways and just like chill out yet
I think that is a real good point to patch graffiti, whose republican scratches keeps making this point that it is not at all clear that consumers are hurt by their being high turn out and in particular, not at all clear answers.
In aiming their strategies at high turnout. Right, I mean did that. Politics is dynamic if you
can't win by suppressing the vote.
What are using this where's, my north pathway, you might we make your party to be popular,
and there's just no reasonably republicans can't do that party. They given some of the December, the like Britain,
little advantages they have in the geographic distribution bright. If a camera lie like seven points,
in the Senate, whence it were two or three like that's enough to react.
Your party and a useful way so that you are not constantly winning with a minority of the vote but also like be able to have a
a bit of a cushion so yeah like not be nice. Let's hope the Republican Party takes him good lessons from this
I think it's gonna be a lot more to come on just what everybody's lessons are, as we learn more about it, because this is right now.
You know run as joking today that it's not Thursday when were taken as its day three of Tuesday Day three of election day and that's how it feels like its work restored
they caught in the fog here, so I think we can do no more soon, yet absolutely I'm so thanks Ezra, thanks at you, are producer Jeffrey Gal. Thanks to our sponsors and always will be back on Tuesday, when, hopefully we will have even more information, so we can have take said you know, maybe not quite as hot, but our wealth
I actually accurate, so we will be back on Tuesday.
Transcript generated on 2021-05-14.