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Georgia (and Obamacare repeal) on our minds


Sarah, Ezra, and Matt talk about Tuesday's special elections and the soon-to-be-released Senate health care bill.

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
This episode of the weeds sponsored by texture, gonna, textured outcome, slash weeds for fourteen day free trial and by the great courses plus gotta, be great courses plus dot com, slash weeds for one month of free streaming, video lectures and by me, Andy's gotta me Andy's, dot com, slash weeds for twenty percent off your first. This is forget what control and so did the weeds on the box. Media Potass network now through pricing is here with us, are clear and, as we ve got, the continuing saga of these secret health care of legislation they talk about asserts continues, was hot white paper. but what I regard as a kind of a surprise twist ending, but last night we had it was a very special special action. Now
the most expensive on a very special edition of the democratic leasing arrest, even the most expensive house race in history in Georgia, sex. It was the highest turn out that we have ever seen for how special action even exceeded the turnout for the last mid term. That that day, there really sort of extraordinary level of mobilization and engagement, and it turned into a huge disappointment for Democrats, met an objective, terrible result, but after all the hype and the money and the enthusiasm that both sides, port in genocide, did exactly the same as hell? I know you did slightly, wouldn't slightly worth. This, I think, is what actually makes it a quite difficult race to interpret. I mean being putting first. I, it is not a good result for Democrats. Baby actually to win race is thus an important part of winning Congress back, but but if you're, asking
this sort of more subtle question of just what kind of trends we sing in the electorate that the recent I think it's very hard to do but this district is it. It is an unusual district had a tremendous difference between the presidential and congressional results in two thousand and sixteen centre that sixteen is district, which was a with lively republican district is represented by Tom Price. Another issue just equity and he would win it by twenty twenty five. Twenty seven points: Hillary Clinton lost it only by one point, five points and saw the one and price one by this huge margin. On the other hand, Donald Trump one by this extremely slim margin, and so one of the questions, now is is the right way to understand what is happening in politics, the swing from Tom Price and incumbent winning twenty seven and the or whatever was I down too, can handle just squeaking out a victory. Or is it Democrats not improving on Hillary Clinton numbers in two thousand, and six
I know I don't find that divide as surprising as you d like to me. It actually kind of exemption. Tom prices. This guy they ve known for four years, their use to electing him. He is someone because he's been on the hill, so long who, what's he chairing a committee, a unity was like high up in the ranks of Republicans, whereas you also, have the known of president Trump and like a kind of suburban distract. That I guess I am less less surprised and it seemed like at the outset of this, like less get a ball from the Democrats perspective, you know. One thing I was obviously interested to watch is how health care factored into this he's in a weird way, didn't as the candidates didn't really. Seem to frame it around that it did not seem like. Voters were out to the rebuke the healthcare efforts that are ex whirling around us section, eight think Democrats are looking at this race, hoping they could point to it and say like we can ride this thing. The victor
This is like literally that the moment when it is happening you have liked this narrative about secret debate. You have to see videos from the House feel the gay. It is the meant to have an election where you can criticise Republicans on health care in a way that you know next November. Wall will likely not be as much of that moment and it didn't really seem too to turn things very much still. I think if you look at this race in particular, it says a lot of bad things about the sort of democratic party leadership and their thinking and their targeting of resources and their over extrapolation of certain kinds of trends. But if you look at all the special actions we ve had in the aggregate
It paints a white bleak portrait for Republicans of you want to run through those roquat. Yes, we have had five special actions, Donald Trump tweeted this morning, that Republicans and on five and oh in them. That's a miss count. One of them was a special action to replace heavier, but Sarah in Southern California, in safe democratic seat, in the special action to replace him Democrats outperform by like twenty points, but he done before. Did it didn't matter at all, but it went to show that Republicans in southern California are like their lives, you know- I mean they're still out there, but like they were not bothering to vote or like run candidates. California had a Senate race between two Democrats in the electoral college. There are limits to how much Democrats can
We further gains there, but in the house is so large house Republic in the California, and they have like a problem on our hands. We had a special action in Kansas, where the governor of Kansas is a Republican whose become extraordinarily unpopular. His state legislature got enough Republicans to vote for a tax increase to override his veto and others special action in incredibly rich, stayed around Wichita, I think, was switched off at any rate, there wasn't a ton of money in this. The Republican really badly underperform, I think, did like fourteen points worse than my campaign had still one, because it is a very safe republic, see I've anyone to Montana where pillory did terribly. But we're Democrats have the governor have a senator so that the State party you know has been ok.
The democratic nominee was not closely tied to that successful state party. They didn't really have recruiting success. Bernie Sanders got excited about Rob Quest, but he had a lot like tax problems and in his background it didn't do great, but he over performed he did sort of between where the successful democratic governance had done and where the bad failure of Hilary campaigned had done. Then last night we had us off who matched Hilary performance in a district that it is important to be clear about this district. There are a number of districts that have highly educated white populations that are represented by Republican House members that Hillary Clinton actually won. The district drudges six was not like that heavily did a lot better than Barack Obama had done, but she still lost so I'd want or, like put it put opinion that factoid.
Would you saw from us off was that he could not generate further improvements over hilarious improvement, but then down South Carolina. You had a more a seat had been similar to Georgia, six in its congressional performance, but was demographically different. It had both more african Americans, but also more working class by population, and nobody put any resources into that. Both sides have kind of Britain it off. Is it safe republican win, but it turned out to be about as close as the Georgia race to fine looking at this in the aggregate giving a positive spent for Democrats? He hears what I've seen in places where tromp was less popular, then the house candidate, who Republicans had like Georgia, sex Republicans and am down to that Trump seal right. It's true that us did not make additional gains, but Hilary already make gains there than in other places like Montana and South.
liner were Hilary did worse than Democrats have traditionally done. We are seeing some snap toward the Democrats right, so Democrats have recovered sum of Hilary is losses, but they don't appear to have lost any of Hilary gains, and that adds up to a bad situation for Republicans. At the same time, it would work wired Democrats to actually run like that right to not just like double down on, because the clear campaign had this theory right after the campaign, the World CUP. was more dams are like how did she lose all these white working class voters, but a week before the election, her campaign knew she was gonna, lose out these white working class voters, but they thought she was gonna gain not like some upscale whites, but at times of upscale whites and it turned out. She gained some, but not a time and then the whole ASA theory was
Ok, we're gonna go from some to a time and they didn't have a way to do that, but all these other candidate seemed shown that you can pocket the sum and go get back some of the working class voters. who she lost, which is a totally viable weight of when it's how you would think you would win a campaign right like after you lose you try to just like do broadly, better with all kinds of voters by having people who are not under FBI Investigation and now having your opponent, be under FBI, investigate eminence, like it's good, but Levy Inter Party fights and dynamics have like lead. Every one to two power on the table Unsightly, like extreme demographic theories of the electorate, that don't make sense to me. One thing that I find difficult and just interpretive special actions in general is that there are special That is why we call them that, and one thing it is worth noting. Special actions do not tend to be predictive of
general or midterm election performance. So when you look at how parties do in special actions like if you look at our public as it did in the two thousand and nine, special actions. They did not do that well on, then, you look and twenty ten and they have an overwhelming performance by my point? There is not to save it should take them seriously, but that they do have one incredibly different characteristic, which is that they don't have the public running in them for any comments in american politics. Partaking congressional actions have very, very big vantages, they have fundraising advantages. They named neck remission, advantages in elections that have pretty information they often have deep ties to the community they represent, setting want one reason I find it difficult to interpret the should we think of John Ass. If, as like Feller clan, election or like that Tom Price election is that in this goes, the points are made compress was running. I mean is also had run against high price in some kind of weird special action. My assumption is, who comprise would have destroyed,
now maybe have been twenty seven maybe had been fourteen, which would have represented a a swing towards the Democrats, but, but nevertheless, and so one thing just hard when you're building this kind of extrapolation forward is that position Billy. Unless there is a massive wave of requirements, we are seeing some retirements, but not that many yet this is a massive wave. Twenty two retirements. These are not going to be special actions. Is it may be democrats running against incumbent Republicans that has different now makes it just tend to be a little bit more favourable to the end I've been a little bit, less purely depend. and on the broader political environment I mean, I think, how much more favourable it is dependent part on what they do. I mean
a point you made about our trump right is that having not been in office, it was hard to tag him with specific things right so, like you can't say that, like Karen Handle voted to lead, cable monopolised, sell all of your web browsing data because she didn't do that, but all the Incumbent House members did right. I think it's interesting to think right if, if the United States was like England right where, if Donald Trump had the option to like dissolve the House of Representatives and have all his incumbents run for reelection five weeks from now said, he could obtain stirring popular mandate and like fire by smaller and move forward with his agenda. The way he wants to would Republicans do
and I think they would not- I mean I think that they are correct to beat. I feel good about this Georgia win. It was like a big blue is currently one of these, I would were one things were like for no particularly good reason. Everybody started pouring more and more resources into this one spot on the trenches. It became a big deal. The some costs became so big and now Democrats, having spent all this money, are bummed out, but that, like fundamentally there in a pretty weak position it, it seems to me that they are not. We capturing the tramp of white working class magic and they are all so not bringing the voters that Trump lost back over their side, even though can handle whatever
they say about her red she's, not like on tape about how she likes to rape, people she's, not marking the EU should not doing all the horrible trump stuff that like push traditional republican voters out of their column, but they didn't come back and vote for him. that's the way they had been voted for Tom Price. I will also say Tom Prices strongly election TWAIN. Sixteen is in part driven by the fact that Democrats nominated what appears to be a fake person who did not. Can it all I did. This was an issue I think is fair to say the temporary would have beaten cans of it, but he'd been real candidates by big numbers of yet understands you do. They were never weird cases like this, so I think PETE Sessions is district in Texas is the most glaring one where it's in the suburbs of Dallas Hilary carried it narrowly and the demagogic didn't run any one, so here obviously got reelected compromise link. This actually speak like an important structural action
which is like the strength of the democratic bench. When things you mention about Montana, as they have a strong party, they so end up running this guy, you like wasn't super involved with things anything this well, you know with especial election, you can find like one or two deeds turnover, hopefully women as well to run for those spots, but even with us off. This is something that he kept getting past back on that that you know he is like not really be no part of it. he's. Not one of your neighbours is something handle like to talk about when he'd literally didn't live this right, exactly which is like a fairer likely that this was an honest critique of this person as a candidate so you think about that. So this is just like for a special action. This is like when you could really get like the Dietrich will see like focused on ok we're going to find a good guy like I think we must focus on one. Then you expand it out to the whole matter. for twenty eight eighteen and it's weird, you find the people who are going to present Good candidates, we're not gonna, be like the invisible challenger too.
It says that I know there is an influx of people interested in running, but I think this is what we talked about this and the show before that structural challenge. For Democrats, where a lot of times he places you look like legislators and state government, and those have been very much control day in a much more controlled by Republicans over the past decade or so than Democrats if they really invested in state legislatures in part, because lets them kind of pass laws on issues they're interested in that are regulated at the state level. Worse, but also gives them a very strong bench of candidates to ride and in a way that with something like the Georgia six, you have an advantage, but you can just focus on one race. You can like find one guy took run in that one race, but then you look at this larger map and where do you find those people who are going to challenge concessions or whoever dare I set, for example, in twenty eighteen, I think others in terms of two thousand and ten and two thousand and six so the net
If it came out of the two thousand and six democratic wave, was it to decouple see run by Roma annual? That point had done this amazing job recruiting and had found all these excellent candidates. Then, in two thousand and ten the tea party was taking over the Republican Party and report. it's what losing off his primaries. Two people are considered to be Aarhus and then just they also won the election hugely setting. A very interesting question is how much these races lies versus how much they dont nationalize, as you say, Georgia appeared to have, to the messaging and part of both candidates and extremely local character so also was running this, paid against handle. That was about her role. where she tried to get this. Isn't a common foundation to stop funny plant parenthood right, which is a very specific Karen, handle problem, Then she was running gets us into somebody who didn't live in the district was like some thirty year old, former congressional staffer. You didn't know this guy and now four of them are really nationalizing. Handle was not running on a campaign of Donald Trump is
the land, and we need to send somebody that Washington, who will support him but all weirdly, also wasn't running. A campaign of damage is terrible and you need to indeed washed in who oppose him. He was trying to sort of. allowed democratic anger at Trump organically to push Democrats out, but keep him serve. Blandin inoffensive, If that he didn't activate our public. This is like the hard part of running a district that Trump want right, cause you're like cognizant of not making those critiques in a place where people voted for this person and more money. They just to finish my point that I Yad trump one the district. Four months ago, thirty seven when I type in a million years ago have been living through this. But I think this is where you get into pretty interesting argument from, like the Bernie Sanders portion of the left and others, because if you look at a district than in a hyper high information, hyper arise presidential election. Would it? What did they split? The vote in contained in turn
there I don't know the exact other treaties, but by the same rough I wondered why forty nine something you're looking at this with a if just almost equal. Fifty one, forty nine partisan breakdown and it's your owing to change that you either need to excite more people or persuade some new people of something it matters, I sort of went on a rabbit whole would have to tune of watching John Joseph ads in it. It was really like. They were parodies of like an ad in which the person with trying to say nothing, right. It was just like these adds about. I'm gonna go to bullshitting cut waste like over and over and over and over again he was running a campaign. Stop being an offensive based on some issues like not Fortune but also not a scary, liberal. Now, Democrats, I think you ve, really revealed some problems in here so Nancy, plus he was a figure in the sky
pain and at some point, as Chris Ingram pointed out on Twitter she's, actually less popular nationally than Donald Trump, like she's, a more unpopular figure, the Donald Trump and when House Democrats What they are saying even though also said technically, like you, would it committee voting fervors But of course you would have liked, but how because the saying is it, if you give us a majority, we will put this person, you don't like in charge of the house, which is not a super exciting campaign for people. Whether dislike of policy is fair, not that's a different argument that, but it does exist- and I do think Democrats Anita. Ask himself this question. If we're gonna try to reorient some the dynamics here, which is why people, I think, think Corbett outperformed, although he still Austin in in Britain, they do. It seems to me to give people something to vote for right, because if you just let the basic partisan dynamics of the country take over, particularly in the house for Democrats have a geographic disadvantages. Presidential IE does a theory that the demographics of the country favorite
I'm and crass actually that actually pursuing a little bit. True it just beach hard via that method that wasn't enough to win the elections. We lay one the boat, but in the house where, stricter gerrymandered, where the ways democratically- really geographically inefficient. If you just a partisan dynamics, take over Democrats are going to lose. They have too heavily outperformance already been going on, which means, I think they need more than people not to like Trump actually to people like them. I think that, like the people from the marked centrist weighing up of the Democratic Party, then he too, like fill a bathtub with ice water, unlike dunk their heads at head and come up and like reboot of it, like, I wrote last night that us off should have tried to run on some more substantive issues. That is what I said. I did not say
he should want, unlike nationalizing the coal mines or anything but like uh. That's what you think, I'm some issues- and I was getting like all this like applause and add a boys from the Red Rose Twitter avatars. Then I had people call me a Bernie Bro and, like I said, I can remember like way back to like two thousand thirteen, when, like Democrats of all stripes, believed that they had ideas that they thought were good and that they wanted to talk about. And then you had the Hillary Clinton campaign, which had a ton of ideas but also had developed the notion that they shouldn't talk about those ideas and then it seems to have like heard old from there
and today the other had since you're, not gonna talk about the ideas you may as well, not have them at all. You know. The idea of having ideas has become like a socialist talking point, unlike they really need to like pull themselves out of that tailspin like it doesn't make sense right. If you want to say, ok, Bernie Sanders is issue. Message is not going to carry the day in the suburbs. Northward planter, that's fine! So then, like ask yourself what issue message will carry the day
in the suburbs north of Atlanta. If the answer is like none like actually, tax cuts for the rich and this horrible healthcare bill are great, then, like what are you doing, taxes for the rich and this horrible healthcare liberal pull terribly? They pull so terribly that can possibly be popular even in these suburbs, north relator. So talk about the lagoon. Instead, these adds we're like it was as if he was running against. Donald Trump rate would be any the Clinton theory of trying to like downplay issues was it tromp was so terrible with such a maniac that, like people of all stripes, my just go vote for Hillary Clinton. As long as she didn't point out to them that this was going to be like free abortions, for everybody, but can't handle did not have those characteristics. Now it was true that you could have made the argument which he also didn't make that we need someone who's gonna, go there and rain and Donald Trump corruption, but even that is an issue
I'm going to go to Congress and I'm going to insist on this that and emoluments or whatever or you could talk about healthcare. You could talk about taxes, but you just get this like national fund raising apparatus based on the idea of Anti trump energy, but then just run a campaign, that's like, while I'm here too create jobs and operetta like that, it's dumb it it doesn't make sense, is so bad that there is actually a good federalist article about this with you if it could not be original paper. No now the vetoes papers were happy Trump website tat any analogies him to act to Wendy Davis and twenty fourteen, which I thought was actually kind of wise that, like Wendy Davis became famous nationally for this lake stirring defensively term abortions, which good for her like there is a large national considered. Do people who is like waiting for somebody to say that, although obviously a stirring defensively term abortions is not a good issue, proof
for a state ride one in Texas but like she wanted to run stay wide in Texas, and then she wanted to like be a celebrity nationally. Who would raise money based on this, but then to run in Texas as like this incredibly Mercosur centrist in it? It didn't make any kind of sense is that you have to commit to your philosophy and towards workable and what's not workable, and if the problem in this Georgia district was that a backlash tromp was gonna drive traditional Republicans in Davos, arms you would have had to like really drive that message like. Why should your discomfort would Donald Trump make you vote for John Joseph, and
There was nothing there. They were hoping. I guess that in the end Republican just wouldn't turn out, but they did I'll have to read. I love media Ella magazines. I got my start working magazines. My mother work for most of her life in the magazine world, so I kind of hate physical objects paper that sort of piles of unread or half red issues that back up and also what a lot of woods of great about sort of timeless journalism. Is you don't need to read it the day that it comes out, but is hard to find anything it in old back issues. That's it makes the text, perhaps so amazing, it's a bunch of the world's different leading Maxine publishers have come together to it. One amazing at that you can use your phone or on your tablet. I use my ipod all the time and you can roused to basically every major magazine out there. You can look back issues, you can get special features, and this so much great stuff as company get rolling stone. Get sports illustrated check it out. If your interested at all is reading,
and journalism in an equality like relaxing content. Experience other so confident that you're going to love textured that they've got a special offer for his listeners to texture, comes like weeds and get a fourteen day free trial. So yeah so we went on this before I forgot healthcare. I have a theory that I do not currently have hard evidence for, but connect. Somebody, Hillary Clinton, somebody ass of stuff, because this is a pipe casper- were allowed to speak. You're late wildly, I'm gonna speculate while they something you hear from. You hurt a lot from the cunning campaign. about their messaging right. Why they did a lot of veto. Donald Trump is up Unstable maniac, not issue ads and to be heard from the outset. Campaign. white, waited all this current anchises usage common executive, who wouldn't fun plan pair. Hood and wasting government is bad. Is it look? We do the focus groups we all this data and the data says this is the best way to persuade these voters. I half of vague theory,
that one thing that were starting to see is one part of identity. We know is strengthening its getting even harder to pull people over from the other side of whichever side that might be, but also that democratic getting a little bit led astray by their unfocused grouping that put mining vigorously put in a room, respectable people asked. If you know this sort of argument might change their minds. I fear that that is a kind of argument of a change of mind to someone like me and they're, just not reliable narrators. Maybe they believe it's true, but it isn't maybe actually was ever true, but that these of weak arguments that pull some on a little bandits like you're. Only a fifty eight percent republicans who, like this plea, overlap of fifty one percent Democrat that they're just not enough any more and that something is happening in these discussions where the folks with all the data are looking with. The data is telling them in, and the thing ok go with this strategy
met to build the widest possible base by being pretty and offensive, but it also pre gentle form of persuasion right, it say hey, maybe that person is in great you're, still a republican, but maybe this one time you want to vote for a Democrat, and that appears to be something. People are doing and that you actually need to push people over a much larger hump or you need to excite more of your own site or something, but I'm watching campaigns or based on add that I am certain. Like I'm certain these folks, sitting. This Monday morning quarter backing Saint fuck. You like we did. A million focus groups had a million poles. You just points about a thin air, and that is true like that if that is how all this works, we are pointing out a thin air, but I have now heard enough of this thing. About focus group adds not working there. I am starting to wonder. If there is in a actual all shift in what that dad is really telling you, given that how difficult it is to dislodge people's partisan identities now so that strata,
he's built on discharging a partisan identity justice. One time on a non ideological message. They might work in a room where people are sort of I too act like a normal human being is not just a like a rapid, partisan all the time, but they dont work in the privacy of the voting. Both. What I think one thing about focus groups in particular is a research method, is a cure necessarily doing them with a group of but people and obviously more efficient. If you're, like our resources, are you want to lake, put a bunch of people in the room? and, like you know, I've seen those are conducted, focus groups and Obama CARE and you kind of like often see this ripple effect through the room were one per says, like I agree with that, none other work, with that, unlike it feels you know that a few people email me who study research methods. You have argued like we should be using protest groups at box that, like terrorism,
as with the way that those work- and you know I do not know enough about this too- like make a judgement either way. But I think it is something interesting to keep in mind about the particular research method that is often used, and the fact that you know the guessing at night in private, is necessarily with a researcher ended with these other people ends in. If you can certainly see these ideas can have a ripple through this group of eight people who can have want to fit in like Endlich. What does it matter to that right, like it's more comfortable like fit in with this group of people and go home and be like that was all gone? virgin. I'm just gonna do whatever I want than like these guy the focus group who's gonna like say like. No actually I don't care about this message at all totally, and you know it keeps group dynamics from taking over, doing everything in secret secret vote. Groves now. Focus groups yes said today is Wednesday
to Morrow is Thursday when they Republicans well suppose they ve got these their Senate healthcare. Obviously, they told interested journalists like when release is coming visible. Rollout they're gonna have like some briefings. Not the d a right now, after sending many Emil's. I know that the bill will be posted on mine on thirty April, and that is the information I have exclusive muskrat comes after a war with trail, so It's crazy. A few weeks of the bill we paused and on Thursday on the internet as scipios expected on Monday, and a vote is expected next Thursday. So weird Talking one we seven days for Republicans did I This will decide if they support at and possibly vote on it, which is sick. an insane timeframe, some of this secrecy stuff. I do understand that you want to hammer,
details, you want to be able to figure out your legislation without getting like constant, like barrage of view no negatively whenever you want to take hammer out, your idea is there, but the aid, either there who just be literally one week for any interested party to to look at the bill to suggest feedback to make China as is just it's really really. crazy for for so many reasons. One is that drafting station is really hard. It is complex. One of the reasons the affordable care act is hard to be. It is not just because its long, but because you have two reference, other laws and that you have to like kind of like look at this section that goes back to this other law and is just a tough thing to understand what the bill is act. we are doing, and so You have a lot of people coming over this and it often takes you no more than a week to notice something weird going on in the bell like a perfect example of this
Why is that, with the republican past American Healthcare ACT, it took a long time. People cross referencing sections figure. Oh hey this bill would lead employers bring back lifetime limits, I'm you know because some folks things were kind of like Looking at how one section relates to another and thinking this. These changes through that things that are not necessarily obvious, become obvious, as you spend time with legislation ends. It sets you up for all these problems. I mean people who worked on Obamacare thing was now that there's some sloppy drafting because I couldn't back and revise their bill that is leading to these lawsuits into these problems at the affordable care act that you know with more careful attention to detail. They wouldn't have so it really it sets this bill up so poorly and end just really speaks to the idea that the focus is not policy. The focus is like passing some thing and
you know it doesn't really matter. What's actually other piece of paper also telling that there's a bunch of democratic senators out there right click, Clear Macao School Donnelly Job Man Chin had camp who were in seeds that Donald Trump One comfortably. If Republicans thought they had an idea that when the public heard about it people would be excited about it. They would be doing this totally differently right. They would be saying we're gonna unveil the legislation and they will tell you win. So the cameras are all set up. They would have their top spokesmen there at the event. They would have people to do briefings so that the right up would be good if you make it easy for journalists to cover the bill there more likely to cover prominently and they would
He did not take forever with it because they would want to get it done, but they would want to leave it hanging out their long enough so that they could squeeze Clara casket between a liberal base. That wants her to oppose Donald Trump and the Trump loving people of Missouri who wanted to support him there on acting like right. There not acting like there is any margin to be gained by pressuring even the reddest state Senate Democrats with this bill. They know that is just the opposite. Right did it's like there's nothing there, Joe Mansion would rather do than talk about this healthcare legislation because he doesn't want to talk about. Donald Trump is personally popular and restrict alot of colombian themes are popular there, but this healthcare bill is not popular there. It's not popular anywhere and they have no intention of trying to persuade people that it's good or of trying to change its provision.
To make it less toxic. They just want to get it done and what they think they're, not totally unreasonable assumption that you know the world of politics will move on to other things. They managed to run a special action that was dominated by a Cathy Griffin, joke and possible questions about John ourselves, production of a documentary for Al Jazeera too, like a year old healthcare bill, that's devastating to the lives of tens of millions of people. people like they can maybe get behind, but that's what's telling here right. This is not legislation that Republicans are proud of its legislation that they profoundly want to pass because it cuts tax, a lot, I think, but don't even think most to me. This is what I think is so interesting about these dynamics most when they don't want to pass it. I mean You can listen to them. Talk about this bill. We did this great peace where just dying and targets and don't Scott talked at eight republican senators like why. Why do you support this bill and it was like
salute words like what will this bill do? Problems will be solved by a lot of them were John Mccain set with its content. They get fifty one votes that that that is a problem. I guess otter. Publicans, they don't want to pass this bill. I've I've heard this talkin to focus on the hill, but they do feel they need to pass a bill, and this the builder being given and they have no control over the process, has not been given any control with the process. Nor by the way, are they taking control the processor, an argument Sarah Made- and it is correct all these crocodile tears about how this is. Terrible process, though the funny to be senator fatally is a member of the gang of thirteen, the working group of thirteen sort of republican senator who were in theory craft. well behind closed doors, and he came out at yesterday before and said we thought that this secret working group that we are going to be writing this bill, but it turns out
if you come home, just a couple. Other people writing spilling supersecret working group and we don't even know it's in it so of Europe set about this process. I share your anger as a member of his hatred working group. If you like, I'm not even remember the supersecret work, Europe's I feel your pay like this is bad but fair enough read. If you give me the joint secret working you for healthcare, I would have done it too, but that their these I'll tears about how the bills being drafted by Mccain by Corker by all of them and a three them. Could you say you know it? If you don't do a process, we can get beyond we're, not voting for this bill, and that would be vat it would have to review the process to morrow none of them. saying that John Mccain is walking making very funny jokes, so he said like always a process, a problem and said no, I always preferred not have seen the bill before I vote for it on a global is hot dominance very honest on this stuff. He could do something about it, but they're not bids. I dont that they want to passes by did they think they have to pass it.
because I think we need to do this thing called repeal and replace Obamacare. They promise it for years and years and years. You need to do something satisfies that Republicans made a promise. Here that had a lot of different parts, and I think they took part it seriously and didn't realize had other people took part. They did not mean seriously, Sir Publicans one or the other free single Bamacarry, terrible it is covering to few people. It's deductibles are too high, as CO pays are too high. Its premiums for good insurance are too high and we're going to. He'll and replace it and put in its place, something terrific and republican seem to think that everybody sort of knew that, like this, was all bullshit code and what they were really can you do just repeal it am I caught medic to the bone and give the money to rich people, and they need to do being make good on the problem. but you are sir you're putting shown a lot lot show this constantly their voters. Voters listened, and they heard beginning cover everybody
My deductibles you're gonna be lower to get better health insurance. I can actually use, and this bill there come up with is a betrayal of those promises in keeping the promise are betraying promised an matters right about the general idea that you can do something very unpopular move on from it. In twenty thirteen take Greece gotten to shut down the government over Obamacare there can party went to its lowest number and pulling ever and then twenty forking. They won the midterm election, but you pass this bill and does come a day when millions of people whose health insurance try to get really happens and people are gonna, look at them they're not gonna, totally forgotten. Now I mean tomorrow's problem. Is tomorrow's pro Oh man, I'm not sure, I'm watching Republican Party the lot of long term strategic planning here, but it just isn't the case you can passes a move on you pass. His enemy Democrats found this out to, unlike every day after that, you have to deal with that. You ve got the day you ve got to rebuild the exchanges. You have to deal with every time it should come out and put out their premiums. You have to deal with one those reporting on how many people bought ensuring
her lost insurance. You have to deal with the idea of like the Arizona market is destabilizing and nobody wants to offer their anymore. They have no plan for this, and they do believe that what they have is defensible and that's what genuinely don't understand like you, you made the point correctly there not crafting legislation that is going to work. How can the legislation is not technically well crafted, but also, having legislation that you know is horrifically unpopular with dozens people like how are you going to defend that afterwards right, you also need something politically defensible, Democrats believed Obamacare was pulling oboes politically defensible. They are more or less right. It's become popular since become under attack. This is like move the money back to rich people, indian shawl, these poor people- I don't think that's politically defensible in the long run, if you like, Listening to part has like this one. You must love learning and if you love learning a great way to do, it is with the great courses plus of these things. They got really great engaging experts doing video lectures.
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Taffir was able to do was just offer like vague, like statements of support like work, Do you guys we care about kids, and it was really hard to push back on that because, like they can't say, no you're build as acts, because we don't know what the belt eyes that they know they can look at that you spell and say it like. Well, the house will do x, men, the Senate, staffer can say well we're looking at that, like we're still working on it, that it really puts advocacy groups in this very, difficult almost mother neutered place where they, where they can't say no, this is going to hurt this kid. We have with us because they don't have the vis, yet they just. How does it vague general sense of this will really affect their family, but like no way to kind of like make the case like you, you ve, committed to something and I think that really it helps explained Mcconnell strategy. It explains. Why is doing this a secret they, because it is hard to have those arguments around a bell that doesn't exist jet and they will just be
one week to have those arguments, there will be as much time for senators to get below back on this bell, as there was in the House Bell. But it's tough to me, case against, like a bill that all affect millions of people, but also does not currently exist in a public, is, I think, going back to us off. I mean this is like the central, like structural failure of Democrats messaging over a period of years, which is that in the United States Congress, the most important issue in american politics is the level of taxes paid by rich people. In particular, every single republican member thinks that rich people pay Much too much tax is much too much tax swayed and that there is no money too much taxes and I dont know exactly unanimity, but even if you look like they want to strip Healthcare for millions of children to deliver a large tax cuts,
wealthy households then follow that up by creating a twenty percent consumption tax on everything everybody buys in order to finance a second large tax cuts for wealthy household. They think that apple is dramatically. Overtax tried that the number one priority in business tax reform should be to deliver a huge tax cut to apple and its shareholders and its structures. Everything, if you want to know like why, don't we make college tuition cheaper because they want to cut taxes on the rich? Why don't we lower deductibles is because they want to cut taxes on the rich. Why did the country almost declare bankruptcy and twenty thirteen? It's because they want to cut taxes on the rich right? It's the paralyzing motion. You can have lots of really
fine, interesting discussions with public health staffers about different kinds of issues, but when it comes down to maybe multimillionaires slight could have less money, and then we could have a bridge Zog mouth fright you you can't do that, but people do not perceive that right politics as it plays out not even less money in the healthcare bill and the doktor build just Simba money. They have better. I read, but it means in in the politics as it is perceived in competitive state races. That is not the case right, like the Montana special action, the Georgia special action. None of these elections were primarily fought out on the question of our rich people. Your text right Republicans, have a lot of their other issues and, like Democrats are not willing to do like the combination of like,
clear messaging about this and willingness to be ideological flexible according to what suits the different districts to like make that be what races are about. I want to say that, like no other issues are priorities are important or are worthy of any kind of attention, but it is such a dominant roadblock in like actual legislation, and I think the appalling supports the sense that the republican stance on this is not a popular one, but people do not have the sense in the guts that there is this blockage in Congress and that what the blockage is is the tax rates on wealthy people and then, if you undid, that, like all kinds of different things, are possible- and you saw like Donald Trump in his campaign- he I think tapped into people's sense that, like there's a lot of things, we should be
wing that we're not doing that. It's like vaguely inexplicable that we can't seem to make progress on any of these issues that we need to do something different to like untapped America's potential. But the thing that we need to do to Unhappy America's potential is to increase taxes on the people who have all the money and like if you can't make campaigns be about that, then you're stuck in the patient advocacy groups we're like. Oh can't, you help poor Timmy and Rob hormones, like sure hope or to me, but you can't help to me and deliver six hundred billion dollar tax cut your helping the people who are getting the tax cuts. Not me. I mean maybe to me is the heir to a motive is very rich people who also have unfortunately, medical service and in its it's a thing, but like that's that going on here and like the bill quote. Unquote is secret but, like the bill is not secret. Like the point of the bill.
Is to finance a giant tax guy. One of one of I think the truce about american policy making right now is that we publicans tend to be making tax policy. When people think they're making health policy, they tend to be making tax policy. When people think they're making infrastructure policy, they tend to be making packs CUP policy when people think they do almost anything, they dress it up in different ways, but usually what's happening, is here trying to cut spending on something in order. Liver, larger tax cuts raid and the spending on the thing almost never has become very clear goal behind in terms of how the thing itself works relic Republicans do not really an argument for how Slashing medicate like this will make medicate work better, but the do argument for why they want the taxes to be cut so I agree that, but I do want to go back to what servicing about the secrecy. Us talk enough or Publican, whose whose influence on healthcare stuff- and he was worried about the secrecy and
So I think those who abuse taken hold among faux, which I think is right that like what calls doing a cynical and even sinister, but it's smart right. It's good that the bill is an out. There is nobody can attack. It is good that the bill is secret, because you know that the press can't write about its worst. Provisions is good. There's only get like twelve hours between when they see the one act of effort, and maybe it right I do not. I do not think I know that a legislative technician than which mcconnell- and so I did I take his word for it, but that this goes in. You know the problem when you surprised people with a bill is that they focus on what's wrong with it, and a lot will be wrong with it and they don't have time to get comfortable with it. we have time to have arguments made to them on it. They just uncomfortable I think he saw in the original American Healthcare ACT fight the bill, fail the first time and by the way to me, I would not be surprised to see. Is this bill fails time, one and, unlike that, comes back in a different form a month or two months later, and you know part of
college chewing issues speeding up a multi pronged process, but nevertheless, like a bills, gonna come out, gonna be a sepia score circuit. gonna, read it she's gonna notice that it hurts every but members of Congress, of pink all the Republicans a freak out and change it, and this is gonna happen. A bunch of time simultaneously mean the bill, I their working with CBS, I'm sure they're gonna get a better score than with the American Health CARE Act had, but they're not gonna have a great scored slogan the insurer, millions and millions of people still gonna have lost the wrong with it and it s he's gonna be absorbing that instantly. All at the same time, I was gonna be sphere of oppressive hungry, for information about this so you could imagine it just like that strategy failing and then be they delay it. You know maybe bit it comes back another other for my all kinds of things can happen. What Mcconnell wants to happen here?
Believe me, what he thinks will happen mandated me what he really wants to happen, but one recent people not done secret bills like this is not just literally that nobody has thought about it or that nobody's been cynical enough for it, but that it has been a theory about legislating uprooting legislating on hard things that, while the public, process and the open process is difficult. It is a necessary part of getting members of Congress comfortable with what you're doing of educating them making them understand why the trade offs are making had to be made of. It can them realise, like actually can defend this in front of my district, because now I know how it works and if somebody says, x, and I can see why and buy books Circuiting that entire process you're already seeing some some real wren Paul MIKE Lee and had cruiser starting to talk like Gonna bolt does it mean they will, but there are starting to see very negative things about the bell and about the way you know the moderates or not the repealing Obamacare, above all by the moderates, getting to sound a little bit shaky to again. The whole thing might just passing in
or whenever it is, but you could also imagine looking back at us and beer, all that, but didn't actually make sense yeah. I think it's an interest has so my, although this out, I have to ask, is where into wild speculation year. I dont think at all pass on Thursday. I may be a hundred wrong. We ll see in a week at this is right, but I kind of expect something similar to the house were like they put it out there. They can't quake. It devotes together. Go back to the drawing board and like right before August recess. For for something like that, for example, their able to pass it- what things that I have the most trouble gaming out. Like thinking that, through Who is how much it mattered that the house was able to say well we're going to pass this, but, like the Senate will fix the problems that this bill I think one things we learned at their house vote is how strong the incentive to appeal is that they intend to do here is strong enough to pass a bill that has very unpopular. They cause millions of people to lose health insurance. They think I under arrest at the end underestimated. How strong that DR would be
go with more moderate Republicans, I think that is there, but you don't have the counter balance of O. Unlike this other personal fix, it accounting expertise, It is like the way also be like we were away like. We need to review this and make this better policy like the Senate is really the fine all you know rubber stamp for this saga will have to go like a conference committee, but they can't really put it off on another body and it seems very hard for me right now to game out like how how much that safety, but get matter to the house in passing their bell, but I'm not sure how much it matters that it mattered in the house, because the difference between the house in the Senate is that there's a bunch of really vulnerable house Republicans who they needed to get on board for this Kevin Mccarthy guy all the House Republicans from California to vote yes on this, including a lot of them horn, really vulnerable districts. They were no
you leave honourable Senate Republicans. At the moment you have Dean, Heller, Corey, gardener and Susan Collins are like marginally vulnerable, but but their own way safer than, dare I say, an end, some of that, the house, people who voted for it so That kind of like pure political concern, particularly because me in his trending redder, is less of an issue and in the Senate, then I think it was in the house, particularly this annabel has already made somewhat more moderate debt to the extent that they ve been having
moderate style problems in the Senate. It has seemed to be more about the actual substance of it like showing more copied Owen LISA, Macao Ski trying to make the bill more favourable to their to their states, and they do their work behind closed doors, but a place where the political tribalism we ve talked a lot about comes up. Is that if you describe this proposal to a conservative working class person in West Virginia, it probably sounds bad to them in a lot of ways? And if you suggest demography caissons, to make it more moderate. They're, probably sounds like a good idea to them in a lot of ways. At the same time, a big blaring news story about how Trump care repeal just failed in the Senate and how Democrats are celebrating and Donald Trump is frustrated there's like Nancy Policy, saying we killed this thing
If it does managed to get through, will kill him in the house. That's like bad. Your team just took an l there right, so it balances the politics. I think for the senators from these lower income, medicate expansion, Aids were like, on the one hand, they wanna try that take care of their constituents a little bit within the context of this giant tax bill, but their constituents are rabid. Republicans, who want to see a republic hence reckon up wins and they don't want to be like the cause of of loss in Ankara, and I told her she is a political scientist at Yale and here's this idea of political amateurism, which is like people rooting for political outcomes, Willie with four sports teams, like you see how many like leftwing Americans were elated, that german carbon beat expectations and a UK election right, and that's like
Supersport's this thing: it's thing it's not about themselves and in their lives and more more people of that kind of relationship to politics, and if you are part of Donald Trump fanned like you're gonna, be sad. If this bill fails test vote in the Senate and you're gonna wanna like get it done and like that's the best thing. I think this operation between, like the donors, want the tax cuts and like the base, once the win. That creates a lot of momentum at ways in the house The momentum really could have been checked by the twenty something people in districts, Hilary one who could have looked around like do not my base, their actual doesn't want the wind for, from here, but in the Senate. I just I just don't know that that all the battle stop them. This reason I've been telling you about me Andy's for months now, it's honestly the softest most comfortable underwear. Did you ever get away once you try
Don't give him to say to yourself like. I can't believe I care this much about underwear, but it is really way nicer to be in these parents. is because every pair of me uneasy sustainably source and made from the fabric. It is called. Micro. Modal is three times softer than kindly it honestly. You probably think that the where's your buying right now and sort of land of three packs is fine. When you try me and these you're going to see that it's not funny. If that lots of interesting collars and patterns, there's no reason it needs to be visually, boring and there's no reason you can't be softer. I said this month that a rainbow confetti print got celebrate that a meal today you can go, get to celebrate pattern before they're all gone go to me and you stuck arms like weeds, you're, gonna save twenty percent off your first pair, you ve got a feel for yourselves.
have you any sort of five million pairs to date, and if you buy it- and you don't love it, it's free, you can send it back. You'll get a full refund there, really confident that you're gonna want you to get twenty percent off your first pair plus free shipping at me, and these are complex, weeds right now. That's me, Andy. Stockholm, slash weeds me understand such weak. you guys think this bill would have been better if republics, reading healthier lunches? Yes much better at a quick, a quick white paper discussion. This is that this was a family, The paper comes to us from Michael Anderson, Elizabeth Ramirez, Richie and just in Gallagher, and they look at California and some school districts in California, contract out their school lunches to private Yours there's a of instability among the vendors they switch around, and so they looked at the different vendors. They did a nutritional analysis on how healthy is the food that
in so by looking at turn and then by looking at test scores access thanks tat, you know educational form, we have lots of tests now and they show that when you serve healthier meals to kids, their task force go up by about point three or point for standard evaluations, which is a lot and they should. The effect is concentrated among kids who qualify for discount school lunches, which, again suggests it has to do with eating the food, perhaps, which is good- and I just like put this along with the lead stuff that we talked about the other week in terms of like things that we can do to help kids, that pretty clearly are scalable. I mean he would take money to scale but it's not like. It's only one of these like heroic teacher stories where it's like five heroic teachers can save your school. But where do you find five million like we have plenty of Broccoli in America were not we're, not suffering that a shortage of it,
sitting secondary. Finding was that the purpose of contracting with healthy school and vendors stated purpose was to reduce childhood obesity, and it does not accomplish the businesses that, because he read those people more closely than I The argument is some day there are. The research recognise them as some vendors of providing less healthy, yet lunches with aware that contracting with a healthy lunch people, Why are they eat, like literally eating their lives like why? Why do you have the unhealthy vintners in the I think you two are like super healthy vegetarians, but I ate some pasta with bananas they saw it was, it was not very healthy, is like meat and fat and carbs any with fundamental so I think I think that maybe decrease, because you I want again to be happy, and my goodness and pizza and chicken fingers and stuff like that, but it turns It will do better at school tests of my God verged, I'm not at all surprised by the OECD. Finding here I know you're, never, surprise very busy findings coming
this new findings. Have you noticed over the years, a buzz anus that I have always doing ever. Something doesn't work. Euro is like that in surprise. So one reason. None of these findings. Surprise me is that this appeal Far from back in the day, I believe David Color was involved in it, but by memory I can remember the other authors, but I thought I did it streamline convincing job showing that the rise in obesity, it does not appear to be related to consumption of or is it the old times, it is related to conceal, can calories between meal times and they basically, make us argue with its fairly baby show. This is actually true that the number of calories concern. Let me also not change that much with enormous calories can do between MRS change dramatically, but, but they make us argue with this pretty interesting and technological nature, which is there It has long been possible when you're having a meal at home by people for very valid for human history have put on a working of us. Milton's mills were often quite bad for you right. You make a big casserole. Nobody, it's a bunch of keys
it's delicious and and it's all good, but there were- not until pretty recently the technology to have shelf stable, continuously available, snack food everywhere and I want you to be the best you can do- is an app right. but now the ship sank, accident ships are actually reasonably recent. Innovation is a lot of our calories are coming in between meals, so kitty, A healthy lunch. It boy, you're, trying to deal with is over city which is not exclusively but J calorie issue. It doesn't chain There's all this food around. All of the timing in a healthy lunch, Macy more income. Do you really think we have Eminem your advice and want to get us her right? They have the eminent was that day, I also just think there's a weird perfectly and foodie circles has been a weird merger of the idea of healthy with the idea of diets that you can eat healthy food and there's a lot of calories in it decides
obvious to me why these things would be connected, but but people should have have a a genuine feeling. virtue around me else. That is not always, I think, super well founded in terms of specific things you might be trying to combat in those meals waving. One other thing with the obesity, as I will join as there is a lack of supervision, is thirty one to think that Chile at about changing obesity rates, is just a time frame, you're working on where this is like a tough thing to deal with, where often you sing outcomes over by abdomen or how long the study was insured. Like a few years ago, I yeah it's often very hard to deliver like big health outcomes. You see this was so much healthcare research, You look at the organ Medicaid study, for example, which tried to look at health outcomes among people who, Medicaid and didn't find them. You do my fun if you follow those people for like two years or twenty years. Maybe maybe you do show some kind of our common values. Kids, for ten years twenty years,
Obviously there is a lot like exercise going on in their food environmental. Maybe you see some kind of in their united. the food, and I would push back right, do think. Like the food environments me, matters at some level, my guess is like these are being made in a larger sum the changes that are happening in schools where there's a lot of like banning of vending machines like no high calorie drinks for my personal view, in working here at vocs like. If you put but in an environment where these food is like, high calorie Evan Ends- and these are delicious dried mangoes we have that are pure sugar, like they generally will gravitate towards, those things, experiment where it has no we're gonna get into these guidelines, and I could nationals I refer. I agree I had last night I throw away a bag of us,
I'll be peace. A mask suggests that the old who I was gonna stop eating members. If they were like immigrant, I just I how we gonna get a nature about it. This is the important point about like this is that you have the healthy lunges in the school, but then you are like the corner store that has whatever junk that you want and really burdensome reporting on food deserts and internal like putting apples on the shelf. Next chips like Really change much good people just by the Chad has given over even an apple reticence had great like one of the struggles of doing this is an abuse of the internet and Jan right, but this is why I do want to emphasise the positive finding that this paper, because I agree with extra people's intuition that, like It would be better to eat. Healthy meals in real time is a little hazy, and it turns out, in this case to not be validated by obesity research, but it also seems to turn out to be true or that it would be better to serve kids, healthy meals, mealtime. They end up
doing better in school, we education is like, is one of the most vexing policy issues, because there's a ton of evidence that it's like super important to do education, while another type of evidence that, like all these education policy, infringes dont, really work or don't work its scale and when you findings that do work at school it's like it's important to see them. You would cost like some money, but not like an infinite sum of money for a state to systematically upgrade the nutritious mess of the school meals are they provide ask was also provide breakfast. There is an important nutritional programme for for low income families, and it turns out it seems to turn out at least that, like what you, sir,
has a meaningful impact on how they could do in school, which is like the that's like the primary things will hit. Kids do is like go to school is so it's. It is important, I think too, like feed them well and to take care of of children. Even if these questions about your overall calorie intake and stuff far are beyond that. The scope of life, but the but the lunch lady can can control, and so you know, I think, that's worth that's worth paying attention to its easy to get a sort of like cynical about it we think that, like nothing will work, but this seems to work has are both are. I am so. Thanks have very firm for for listening. Things were a producer of Peter Leonard, we're gonna. come back and talk about the text of the healthcare bill. At least some of us well on Friday, so excited we have available it's it's gonna, be here
who were really probably owing and have the planet have pursued. To talk about what has been as since I move faster Wednesday Reed, I'm serious far, why no the vote, which it's gonna be fast, so it's it's gonna, be great. It's gonna be extracted hands. I took out the Facebook group if you haven't, we cannot continue discussion there and we will see in a couple of it.
Transcript generated on 2021-09-13.