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How does the pandemic end?


Now that nearly 60 percent of the US population is fully vaccinated, Dylan, German, and Jerusalem discuss potential exit strategies for policies such as mask mandates and mandatory quarantines. They also talk about what an “endemic” Covid might be like in the US and which aspects of pandemic life might stick around. Finally, they discuss how better access to mental health care could affect crime.


Mandate the vaccines, not masks

The case for ending school mask mandates at the end of the year

The case for keeping mask mandates

Emily Oster on kids and masks

The Black Death and its Consequences for the Jewish Community in Tàrrega

Against “deep cleaning” surfaces for COVID

Vaccines are coming along for children under 5

Do booster shots make vaccinating the world harder?

White paper of the week: Better access to outpatient psychiatric care reduces crime

Cognitive-behavioral therapy reduced crime in Liberia


Dylan Matthews (@dylanmatt), senior correspondent, Vox

German Lopez (@germanrlopez), senior correspondent, Vox

Jerusalem Demsas (@jerusalemdemsas), policy reporter, Vox


Sofi LaLonde, producer & engineer

Libby Nelson, editorial adviser

Amber Hall, deputy editorial director of talk podcasts

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
What would you do with one extra day every go ahead, close your eyes picture people is a ton of time everyday hours talking between all of their work camps. Click up has the solution. All your essential tools into one place, prior to collaborate on talks, challenge your team track because listen click up says: they'll guarantee safe one day every week on average it's completely customizable and free forever. So try click up. Today, a click up, dotcom, slash the weeds would simply make the world a happier place where less bad things happen. I like Dylan's approach to this
hello and welcome to another episode. The weeds, I'm your hosting Matthews and I'm joined this week by vocs in correspondence from on Lopez. Allow an pulse reporter Jerusalem, dumpsters, either oh drizzling- and I were just in England for a conference which was the first time either of us have really left the country since covert started, and for me at least it is a real reminder of just how much of our lives are still different now than from what they were pre pandemic so far for every single part of stripped from the cab to the airport, to waiting for my flight to the flight itself to being on that, in London after the flight ever always are and have a mask on. We were required to take a covert tasked with,
two days of landing and we couldn't leave the country a return to America without a recent test showing we were covered negative and as people We been doing this like everybody else for last twenty months. It raised obvious question of when, if ever we're going to get back to normal or normal as we understood it and twenty nineteen the biggest suppressed. And here is when kids can stop wherein masks at school. That's been a huge barrier to return to anything like life, pre covered for teachers and kids and parents, as has many schools policy of mandatory quarantines for four kids with symptoms stirring to change now. The kid there were five can be vaccinated, but it's still a contentious fight, so If we are listening to this and you have a kid whose fibre older please vaccinate them the question is broader than schools as well that he required masks for trains and planes until January and sober question now is, should the policy be extended beyond that? What about four subways and buses or
cab rights and Uber's. Should each of these institutions be making these decisions on their own, or should there be some kind of like a coordinated reopening plan, so there with her mind, you ve covered vaccine unmask mandates for a while now. So what's your take on what the right pace might be at this point to return to normal, I think a key point. There is at this point because right now, things are not going well still in the: U S, it's easy for, especially like I'm vaccinated. So I personally do not think that much about the threat of over to my day to day life anymore, because I'm vaccinated sedated. By the same time, you look at the numbers, things that are not going well we're still at seventy five thousand cases a day. Recently that
was going down, but it's now no longer going down. So that's a bad trend were still at more than twelve hundred that's a day which is extremely high. It's the equivalent to basically four times the draw all drug overdose, his desk in the U S or twenty times the murders in the. U S like these are extremely shockingly high numbers. So it's worth emphasising. the vast majority of these debts are the on, so the so the vaccines work. But at the same time I mean you see these numbers in you, you think, like you know, maybe some tenue. Caution is appropriate as such in school setting, because obviously, schools have had some of the biggest disruptions in May. We talk a lot about masts in schools, but like some, schools are essentially shutting down for like days or even more than a week still because of their mandatory quarantine. Rules like this is really disruptive, especially
but we ve seen like the learning lost out over the last year and a half that is showing that, like he's disruptions, are really bad for kids, but I think at the same time, it also through the most report, just kind of over covered in the. U S like they're, ready to move on. I mean that this might sound weird because, like on social media, think people who are very cautious are over represented, and I think, maybe in our audience up that may be true as well, but, like you can just go to about any place where people gather and life is back to normal. I live in downtown Cincinnati like near a lot of bars and restaurants. Its constantly pact on weekends, like everything is bustling. People are ready to just you know, party drink, do all that stuff. I also think just practically speaking, given that most debts are the vaccinated. I I dont want to sound like cold about this, but lake at a certain point. We were asking my continued restrictions for masking and
Are you know quarantine and schools, or whatever other things? People might be doing you're asking vaccinated people to protect on vaccinated both by avoiding doing certain things exact. That's a real risk re like that's it. The biggest problem right now in terms of covert is if somebody who's on to get sick there, much more likely to die than then somebody who's vaccinate and that's really the population that's most vulnerable or another, the population being protected by these measures. The most I think I just think that's unsustainable for all sorts of reasons like once you get a vaccine like a lot of people are going to think. Why should I keep warping my life for this, especially on facts? people are say by choice. It just becomes a harder political and even social cell. I was looking at the M cap had a national and state planned, and the court of crisis that we talk about on the weeds as you are mad like several months ago in another lifetime and twenty. This report came out in April. Twenty one and like on this subject of, like you know, discharge
we have pursued, has been a vaccine strategy essentially, but you know the time wanted things a like step to further charged in the crowd of irish crisis. In a lot of these people, who wrote this plan r, in the binding ministration should near at hand in until four spear out other people number Two was ramping up, testing and production of personal protective equipment, and so ramping up testing equipment as well. This has been one of the really big failures of both trot and at this point, Bite administration is that you know if you have as from one mention this in on vaccinated population. You know you can have the dual strategy by trying to get them back stated and also having a massive testing apparatus and tracing apparatus, Make sure that you're still containing any outbreaks do occur proper. Had this good investigation That, like looked in to the kind failures of our ability as a cunt to ramp up attesting apparatus. Everyone, I think, probably members in the show, in February of twenty, the CDC took weeks to develop its own test, and then it was like, falsely flat
Other viruses. It was like a really bad test, a lot of ways and it like Hunter, hampered our speed, but it's been like over a year since February, twenty twenty and Go writes that both trumpet by Mr Schmid, Central Bank on vaccines, putting an end the pandemic, and basically this is like one company abbot la tories, which has dominated the market. Its tests account for seventy five percent of U S: retail sales, there's not a bunch of competition here where there are bunch of testing authorize when only Kay, like friends of mine, had like dozens of task just sitting in their homes. Here in the U S, I've that there have been two or three times I try to go, get too let us see is taking me. Several hours have had to go to like several different pharmacies, there's only one when people to find any available in the decent Metro area, and that seen in Saint and this points by measures must try to turn kind of pivot and add, add more testing capacity. But I was where the things it becomes very confusing with this time period, because this point, we're like a significant amount of people are vaccinated, I think I would today and
one dose for people above eighteen its eighty point. Nine percent of people are vaccinated windows ripple of sixty five and ninety eight point: five percent. I don't know It ass people do at this point other than like they got back tonight at union, provide tests to make sure that other people couldn't be sputters and you're not mandating it for a lot of places. So, like people are gonna, go live their lives. It's about me be Thanksgiving. It's going to happen, and I think that has to wear pulse conversation begins. Yeah. I think one dynamic that that very much characterizes the way this debate is happening right now. That seems like you will change very rapidly. Is that people have all these carve outs of their types of people that their very nervous? bout who aren't currently protected by vaccines. So some of this is a compromise people who might not be medically eligible for vaccine, some of them is children. I think the bulk of it is is concerned, got children restore little ways away from kids under five being able to be acts. I think there are some dosing questions and also the FDA is just
slow in the way it's been slow, this whole pandemic and so that the earliest type I've heard they can get. Those out is probably gonna be early next year, and so, if you're gonna, school traditional School Eureka Programme- that's not gonna, help you buy it in a few months, will be a point where light literally everyone from the cradle to the grave is eligible for a vaccine, and I think there still be some push for our respect. For me, in a compromise people in and people who can't get the vaccine to take on or masking restrictions, I dont know how much weight that's going to Harry B, historically, mostly for for the worst people in the stable community, like that have not had a ton of political power, and while I wish that was a bigger part of the conversation, it's been completely dominated by the and about children. Bathing is also something where, in other cases, for other vaccines, the assumption is we'll get you something close enough to occurred, immunity that people and that's it,
women are protected. Anyway, that, if like ninety eight percent of the population is, is vaccinated against measles, that's pretty good protection for people who can't themselves get like us call inoculation. It serve a social inoculation rather than a pharmaceutical one, and it just doesn't look like we're. Gonna get there for forming a compromise or like. Eighty one presented is amazing for a vaccine that didn't exist a year ago, but is also far from what you need to have an adequate level of protection for people. In that situation, I was really today, many compromised point, Dillon looking this up during the show, and I my industry like the clinical trials. Included in your compress patients. Others lot of my concern about obviously efficacy, and it can really credible someone's health if there had been a compromise. Take the vaccine I wish the air may and they are recommending that immunity compromise patients get the vaccine, obviously different, for each individual person
I'm not a doctor's, I'm not telling you to go. Do that, but I'm saying that it does seem to me that it's possible that to me to come by the individuals are able to get the vaccine, even though I thought I'd efficacious. for them are show producer, Sophie Le Monde mother, whose mean a compromise to get the vaccine she's telling us by so that dating from Antonov. You know more about that, but I think that is like a really big sticking point here of like this is a very vulnerable population through no fault of their own are not able to actually get or there, not be able to get the structure that the rest of us are able to get, and so what can we do? for them other than try to get more people vaccinated German, I think there's like too Things going on here? One is that it means compromise people. There is some evidence that suggest that, like they just need boosters more than the rest, the population would for just to make sure that their immune systems have extra layers of protection that the rest of us just don't need the second thing, though- and I'm not saying I agree with this- because I think- and in some ways it it's just morally wrong. The way people think about this, but it is also the
case it like a lot of the population, doesn't worry about them. You know compromise because if you start thinking of it, that way day then like, when is life going to back to normal rate, like that is the dominant question for a lot of people's minds, because if the amino compromise are always can be vulnerable to cover, just by virtue of not benefiting from the vaccines and do not immune systems work than I mean can be true forever like and no amount of, boosters necessarily might achieve the level of protection that we'd like to see I think like bill was getting this really drives home. Why just the key problem here is not enough. The population is vaccinate in an ideal world, I'm basically everyone who could go back to NATO would be back say, but it, but borrowing that, like ninety plus percent, would go along. way in terms of you know avoiding cove, its worst potential like it spread and its infection, and it's worth emphasising here too, because so they have lost in this conversation over the past few months. I think people have developed,
idea that the vaccines are working any more because of delta or because our waning and measures really not true. It's important to emphasise that is some evidence that protection against any infection wanes, but that includes, like the mildest disease possible lake, low, very, very low. Sometimes, like mild fever, someday you'll see with a cold or a flu and even then you still get some protection from infection. Their good studies are about this from York, York and the a health system that will lengthen the shone out. Another aspect of this is a vaccine really do protect against transmission. There are studies from the Netherlands and the UK showing that they actually do reduce the amount of virus transmitted by a vaccinated person, so they still help there and taking both of those point aside since have mostly held up in its hospitalization and death. Like we're still talking eighty to ninety plus percent protection against hospitalization than that which we are talking about a
these here, like the reason we sort of worry about this pandemic, is because it's killing people like that's a primary concern. Otherwise I mean nobody wants to get sick or get thrown into bad for like a couple weeks, because I have a high fever in and just are exhausted, but if the biggest concern is at the end of the day, death at the vaccines have held up there. They have taken care of that. I just bought some numbers from states here, but in general, across the country, the UN vaccinate Arse eleven times is likely to die from covered. That includes with, the Delta variant in some data from states in September in October, eighty one percent of covert, that's were on vaccinated people and in Virginia through October, only zero point. Zero. One percent of the vaccinated have died from covered. So if you're too in those numbers like yes, the vaccines are not perfect, but it's important to emphasise that no vaccine is but there still really holding up and
all the more frustrating. I think that just not enough of the population is taking the shots like if, if they we would be it I'm a dramatically different play. Some we are today does not in some ways kind of underestimate how good vaccines are for you in bed. I think, if, if we hyper, ugly and we won't get those. But if we hypothetically had a world where a hundred per cent of people of all ages were vaccinated against cove it, I think we would see production and thus much greater than the like. Eighty one percent of people who died, who were on vaccinated just because you wouldn't have on vaccine people walking around spreading it end ends or of transmission, would fall dramatically, which in turn would vastly reduce the number of acts vaccinated. People were acquiring doesn't die from it. I guess I went as years about the viability of vaccine mandates going forward to that seems lake politically, like the clear path forward this is that the bite in administration strategy is is using OSHA to pressure, employers and
two mandating vaccines there currently getting sued by state governments for trying to do that, and while I get Hence the lake in Dick like evidence, minded policy, public health circles at the three Thus the hang out in like dont mandate, masks mandate, vaccines to To quote the headline of her monarchical from while back is kind of a conventional wisdom. The commission. with them in a lot of like red states, seems to be dont mandate. Anything and I have no idea how to get through there. Presumably our best bet is some kind of of federal mandate like burdens, but doing it through and through Yours is a little junkie people are employed both by employing people browser like stand on parents, and retired people etc, and I dont know of any good ways to over I'm, the kind of culture were aspects that have led. Even some democratic governor, like Laura Kelly in Kansas, has been like vocally against vaccine mandates of any kind
I don't know observe how to overcome that. As long as this is sort of a polarized when partisan issue, if I'm being So here I just don't see our vaccination rates going up much more than that. Have been. I hope I am wrong. I mean one where I could see this playing out is that there is a big fall and winter surge and that scarce people and way more people get the shot. That is something we saw with the delta surge, but, like that's the worst weight, get more people vaccine, because that means bringing on a bunch of try and unnecessary death and discover cases and general illness and suffering. But otherwise I don't. I just don't see how things are going. Change much, I mean like we ve been trying dislike now for better part of the year, we ve been trying to persuade people to get vaccinated. If you look at Keyser Spalding
saved on points is the start of the vaccination campaign about people's attitudes or vaccination. It has been about one in five. People will knock at vaccine at all or unless it's required consistently. That number GIS has not really budged. Despite all of these persuasion, efforts and there's also study, suggesting that, like even incentives like financial incentives, just have not really driven up acceleration raised to the level you'd like. So I don't know. I think that, like I'm, I'm pretty pessimistic about getting our vaccination rates up, forward, and I think in the on going back to normal is gonna, be the summit. Than to vaccinate sand well, the on vaccination made their choice, they're not going to take this higher risk, and meanwhile the vaccinated organ enjoy like suffering and dine less from covered and like that's, not the world I want, I would want everybody to be vaccinated, be protected, but it seems like the most realistic reality otherwise be trapped in this kind of situation for further conceivable future
broadly to meeting the big problem here is just that there has not been articulated for like a long time. What the end point is supposed to be like the idea can't be that its eradication right, like in world history, that we know of like the world is eradicated, exactly one disease through vaccination and that was like smallpox at took two hundred years from when Edward Jenner, like somewhat unethically, put like a cat box or for milk it onto a nine year old and then like said that, like it saved him from smallpox, f He expose this nine year old smallpox several times anyway. Probably Fdi, wouldn't when allow that so somewhere between that and what the FDA doing now is the level of risk taking what we need, but anyway, My point is largely, but it seems like the end point here can't be like we need to get vision, zero for a covert. That seems like not gonna happen, and you know what we have the very beginning was that it was like we're trying to flattened the curve and we need to have
kind of understanding of like is there a benchmark of number of vaccinations? Isn't a benchmark of now at this point is hunters and easier to test their mandates in public squares, and also vaccination rates has reached this level and we ve, given kids the ability to get vaccinations for x amount of time. But I think the part part is that, for a long time we ve articulated to people is that to be a good citizen. A good covert citizen means understanding that it's not a big party. It was, I beg, harm you max, not the com for you to stay home, you're, protecting people and unless you are you're percent committed to basically removing most things that make life enjoyable. You are being on ethical, and that was extremely polarizing alot of people to the very seriously during the last couple of years, and they I slew themselves from their family, and you know, and they were able to do so because law, those people, road knowledge workers, were higher income and not be possible. liquid insane burden, especially because they were already working person and so are already assuming a type of risk by going into restaurants in bars whatever it was and having to work in person, and so on
The goal was always very oddly articulated as like, not reasonable, and not also reflective of what a large part of population was already having to do, and this was a big thing during the holidays last year, where people were being asked to be essential workers and basically put themselves up for exposure and It restores every single day for not reasonable. A payer endure a bunch of vitriol being put on them by customers were also being told not to go to the holidays as they watched their elected officials, a bunch of the covered laws like this. One has been very odd me where we still now at this point to yours out, I dont know what it means to bite administration or to the administration or to any government official for the impediment to be over. Until that becomes clear, I don't know how you expect people to work towards that goal effectively on this increase. bleed cheery note, I think we should take a break, will ponder the dark realities, but but when we get back, we're gonna think a little bit about what life will look like. If we
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before we were talking about Jerusalem, they're not going to England and having throughout covert I've. a lot about the relatively short periods of my life. They spend trial in Asia. Since my unless were living out there, and one thing that at risk, struck me about. That was that people were wearing masks and public just a lot more than in the. U s her or Europe It seems like a lot of that had to do with the legacy of Sars, which had a particularly Hong Kong and China does much much more or than the rest of the world Whatever the reason that was probably you good thing, it seems strange to me coming in as an american people were just walking around and on the street wherein masks but probably had serious health benefits in terms of avoiding flues and colds other more serious respiratory diseases, all the thing We have to worry about even before a covert head, and so one thing
I wanted to take some time for us to talk about it. Just how much of the new nor more after the pandemic should be different from from the old to normal, pretend I'm back so maybe we should adopt that cultural practice of just having now keen as a kind of permanent activity or LISA, I kind of permanent option for people to tourism. How different do you think things oughta be either come? really are in terms of policy than than they were in twenty nineteen. I don't see a lot of personal behaviour, actually changing. Realistically, it seems great to me that like masks could reduce my ability get cold. It seems like during the winter seasons. Ah, there's like low for it for me to have a mask on when I'm in public transit or when I'm end like Halley trafficked indoor areas- and you know I could just do easily, and I probably well because I hate getting sick, but I think that to animals interesting thing that I could see shifting is, firstly, that we have allowed the technological and policy infrastructure slash norms to support future pandemic action
right now, like a lot of knowledge. Workers now have like the ability to show what it means to work from home. It means that you have a computer and we figured out zoom. We all do these meetings together, like people figure out how to engage their teams on slack or in different ways, and also the norm of like, if there's a massive health risk to conquer gaining, it's not worth it for, knowledge workers to be in the office, and I think companies will be much more. I synthetic and quick to arms and people to work from home and having that's also refer the federal government as well. I mean we didn't get automatic stabilizers like a lot of us, we're hoping for and the past year that any time there's time economic downturn, we would have subsequent federal fiscal action like more stimulus tracks or unemployment insurance or anything like that to support the economy during a recessionary period. But what we did get is that I think this under created offers at both Hopkins Democrats spent like an insane amount of money to support the economy like
mean I just getting process at. The idea of you told me that, like the Republican Party with that reprogrammed, controlled Senate and republican President would have passed, the Cares ACT would have passed a second stimulus bill. after they had lost the election as well. Musically actually quite astonishing that this happen, and I think that something that can be over appreciated here is that enough, sure it is much more in the entire policy interests and also understanding of what is possible for the federal government to do for them, too this kind of money to support people, these kinds of checks, stimulus checks and things like that, and that kind of normal is really important that changed a victim of. On the masking front, I mean I could see people more people, just where masks and a future like that. That will probably be, I don't think I'll be. widespread and normal it does. It will not be universal, but, like personally, you know pretty safe and on backs and its like at the end of the day off freaking out about this, but I'm not gonna, where mass. When I go like to the grocery store, something or farmers ear
anything along those lines. It's like pretty low. I basically involves making no sacrifice however, other than slapping something on my face? At the same time, Like I don't know, I'm also not going to be too worried if other people around me aren't wearing a mask because, like I said, I'm back summated, it's mostly for my own personal protection at that point, so I can see more people do Crye like it. I mean that's kind of how it works in Asia. You deftly do not see like when I when I went to Japan couple years ago. It was not universe so, but you did see people wear masks here and there. I think it useful way to start thinking about. This is just asking yourself if you're not doing something. Now. Are you going, doing it in a few years like what will change between now and then that will compel you too, something that you're not doing now, and I think that's helpful because start they give it this way, it's like, if you're already a vaccinated person, you probably do not have to be freaking out as much because
lake unless you're worried about cases in your look community which is under you should be worried about the lake. I mean your personal risk level was probably not going to change all that much now that you're vaccinated and understand this, because it does not seem to be like the consensus on social media and in the lot of like news reporting but like. If you ask just about any expert at this point. They will all tell you that cove is never going to get the zero and like it will be endemic, and I don't know it that that idea. This does not seem to pierce through in a lot of circles, but it's like really important to emphasise, because that means that, with the way we start thing about this, now is how like how to live with covert instead of just continuously tried. These essentially failed efforts to bring it down to zero, something like continue masking or just not going to work when you're sick, like things that we prize should have been doing before leg we deftly did not that that's me makes sense, is something that will be doing going
forward, but otherwise I don't know. I really also just see a very hard time seeing Americans changing much of any of their behaviors and, like significantly babe ways. Jessica's I mean we ve seen for the past two years, that people already really really oppose, even during the middle of a pandemic, to changing their behaviors might so. I think the reality is people, probably snap back to whatever the pre pandemic. Normal was for them as quickly as possible, and in fact I would A lot of Americans, EVA most Americans already are there, like the people are still being cautious, are probably in the minority at this point. ya know anything we leave we ve been talking about. The people are still being cautious arriving in part, because those are our social circles that that, since such as are polarized activity and people, demographic of sir broadly, the Centre college graduates in their twenties and thirties. I ain't, as especially people with young kids, tend to be very, very cautious about this.
and if it has been serve attributing to talk about in that. I think you are mine, I'm I probably much more cautious than the median american and much less cost less than a media in American of, like my demographic profile, where is putting its not like, what's happening at my social circles at all people interested reading, the vaccine, like its liquid gold there, like nothing, can happen to me I have it in my system, I'm good. I can't tell faster slake MIKE age groups. children yet or Cooper. I might be bigger your young and, in her mind, an iron near death, and so I have of our friends, are stirring, have babies and it seems like total. on tumblr to the actual risk of of hospitalization or death that under five worlds are like on every conceivable metric, this the safest and we step risk of of covert of any demographic group. Breeding like correctly and for a very strong evolutionary reasons be boy. Very protective of their children They haven't. I think it does indicate. The word were, sir.
Thinking about this in a different risk framework, then we think about serve other endemic illness so like every year error at least every year before everyone masked out for twenty twenty, like some share of kids died of the flu and some share kids die don't like bronchitis, sir or other pretty common. Rarely serious serve illnesses like that ends. There might have been some people whose reaction to that ways we should should take more control measures and try to get this number is down. Overall, I did, you would say, was more like. Oh that's a tragedy, but you know stuff happens and just moving right along, and I don't want to get like a bad callous about covered joy. Word, but as Herman says, we're not gained as euro. This will continue to be endemic and we for a year, been been taken kind of emergency measures on the logic that we can do that for a while that, at least for like a year may be two years we can like seriously.
Disrupt our lives for the sake of broader public health and and we can kind of sustained that both like no one thinks we can sustain that indefinitely, and so at some point you get to Do you like composition, similar to the conversation about whether highway speed limits should be fifty five or sixty five, where, like their jerks like me, who think it should be fifty five costs that would save a tonne? wives and others of an equally vocal segment of people who think that super away and TAT life is now with Libya, and unless you can drive sixty five like me, have a healthy, democratically bade over over those kinds of risks that it is not governed by the sea? like we have to get everything down to zero mentality that we ve been living with the glass like eighteen months or so yeah. Every second point about, like just did city and risk tolerance that exists, the United States and just like, I would say that
not that anyone was making will regular people are making other calculation that oh, it's ok, that a few kids are dying of bronchitis of flu. I think this is the guy salient as an issue that would ever be addressed and like a political or governmental way like having often, though, if you will think about illnesses like this. Is it everything that strikes. Unlike what could you really do about it, and my hope is that with they were getting to shift to a framework of understand that public health is also a thing that, the government, should be charged with and that you know there is bro low cost measures like just Piazza campaigns about flew shots, I could increase the amount of bulgarian flew shots are like different things about like how many people in your community- are getting sick. Like news reporting like the way they report about the weather in your community, like what is the case count of the of Kerr of dangerous, flew strains in your area and stuff like that feels like me, you could be a really like pretty monumental shift and how people think about and engage with trend missing diseases, and that is what can be a really good thing. Obviously, tat
and people that they have to learn to live with covered is easier said than done, like the idea that you know there are some was talking about this, but like the idea that, like you, we were told to like follow these precautions for last year and a half or your bad person, and now you're tall thy k, your vaccinated, yes, the risk is not gonna be zero, but, like you know, you can start moving back to normal It is a really difficult concept. It makes sense of people can't write their heads around it and on this issue then you out there the conversation Iraq over this obvious of in Paul arising out of the window to rehash how Republicans are really screwed up all their messaging. I mean tromp was like the single worst voice uncovered imaginable, really throughout the past year and a half balikh on the flip side. Of that, I think like that. Democratic messaging has been not equal, the awful but pretty bad and significant ways around this, and what I mean by this is like for much of the past
a year and a half Democrats were acting like they were pursuing a covert zero strategy, but there, if you look at their actual policy proposals literally, nothing that they are actually proposing would ever have Ganis anyway. Even the people listen to the recommendations that is not all like. We would add. Got into covered. Here I mean you look at the countries that took over zero seriously talking New Zealand talking, Australia, Time China, when they locked down that meant walk down. That did not mean like you. You you can only go to the grocery store twice a week or something like that or you can still visitor. And bubbles, it means you do not leave your home and if you do leave your home there, like potentially serious legal consequences for Obviously nobody in the Democratic Party honoured to suggest that I think there are like reasonable political reasons for like why they did not want to do that. But lake it it creates is weird you now,
kind of dichotomy where they were at once saying we're gonna do covered zero, but not really doing anything to actually pursue that goal. We talked earlier about off ramps the lake the how there are no goals here for like water covert policy. Is that still a huge problem? I think that more time like Australia, for example, they did have clear goals. They said: look I'm going to try to get this through this case level and then will open up again by largely Is this not done bat like the states have not done that federal policy makers are not really done that and like to the accent sample some have done it in the: U S: use they like tend to go back on their goals. There are Lou holes everywhere. I mean, I know that, like some states have actually sat like hey what we won't open up until we get to this case raised once realize it cannot get that low. They were just say we're gonna open up anyway, like there
absolutely no evidence that you saw this in a bunch of democratic states over the past year and have no evidence that, like things, would work out, in fact, usually they did not work out. There's a big cause of the winter and fall surges last. here and so now, you're, u essentially told it on a large segment of the population who, like sympathises with democratic leaders, Ok, you have to pursue covered zero, and you know really doing that and now all of a sudden you're telling them never mind we're not doing that anymore. It really. From that perspective, it is not surprising that a lot of people are having a hard time wrapping their heads around moving back to normal? It really has been like a disastrous communication sailor and it it. I wish, I could say I think, has continued to the barn and Miss written there still not a lot of clarity on like when things will return to normal, because they have not really set goals about like what returning to normal beans. I was king for historical reference for what the how this is kind of like played out previously so is lacking. I am those popular one. Is the black death, of course, which kills more than a third of Europe's population
twenty five million people, but I didn't realize just how long a period of time like the black I was going like for four hundred years, essentially there outbreaks going on in Europe like its thirteen, forty seven to thirteen fifty two, which is like the main, like twenty five million people dying, but then, like hundreds of years later, a sixty We sex, like two thirds of Naples in Genoa, die in sixteen sixty five, a fourth of London citizens die Vienna loose hundred thousand people in sixteen. Seventy nine Moscow is the same number in seventeen. Seventy like this goes on forever: of years, end the, but that is like still around technically. I think everything in LOS Angeles, like outbreak in, like the nineteen eighty ease or something else, nineteen twenty is only twenty. What like thirty people died of an outbreak in LOS Angeles after a man like handles, rat and there's research that there's the most plaguing debit countries are Madagascar, Congo, in the Barroso Europe. What is more, thou that like during this,
time like people are like that's what I like live it I mean. Obviously, Covid is a lot less bad than the plague and we have a vaccine for it, but like living with a covid that, like at this level, if we don't change like the rates of vaccination, We don't change them significantly for developing nations is bunches of outbreaks happening randomly and people dying, and I think one aspect of us that, like I remember we're talking about a lot early in the pandemic, but like kind of Peter off, which is why the xenophobia that sort of occurs when these sort of Europe's happen. I mean we all remember like the desire to call this at the time these flu or, like hung, flew and stuff like that, trumpet other other Republicans per se. But this was not just how In the u s- and this is happening all over europe- Mean in Asia. There are people who are talking about when they would travel so things to happen to them all the time where people would react really hostelry to them like This is obviously not new. People are really afraid of of people carrying.
disease and they are willing to extrapolate that fear onto their others. You two phobic belief that they are. Hold on, I mean an it didn't get really really bad for people I mean in during the black death, like european Christians, blamed the Jews for the plague and there, like a bunch of matter, where's and violence had happened, which obviously is really terrible, but also is something that we have to deal with in the future. If we don't actually have an end point kind of strategy for how people can stay safe if their vaccinated and if they're not vaccinated because as permanent said, there's gotta be something of an important populations not accepted, we need to give them and trace and if there are flare up in a community where there are foreigners coming in like what are you gonna do with that situation, to make sure that it is a kind of rubbed into kind of xenophobic violence and stuff like that, and, like MRS, not, I think, a hypothetical at all. If we saw The last year there's a lot of reporting about an increase in asian American. Here, crimes going on that's been pretty well corroborated. Pleased in places like California in New York City on that. There is a real and and persistent spike in hate crimes happening. People like physical assaults and that two years ago,
Ask me to this, I think, is like we're. Just gonna stop talking There's like some money put towards like hate crime legislation, but there's a lot of evidence. That's gonna. Do anything back to prevent harm happening, the people and to me living with covert is living with. How do we in an increasingly globalized world were pandemics, are more more likely reduce that that we're gonna. Have these kind of xenophobic attacks happening the people in our lifetime it for not able to actually get to zero at any reasonable timeframe.
We're talking about the increasing violence? That seems like a good moment to tradition, to our white paper, but but first we're going to take a break and then, when we come back that we're going to see her from her mind about some new research about how expanding access to mental health care can help to reduce crime. One way to think about therapy is through analogies. We get our car service to prevent bigger issues down the road we work out and visit the doktor to prevent injury and disease in our bodies. We see the dentist for a teeth to prevent cavities and other issues going to therapy is like all of the above, its routine maintenance Your mental and emotional wellness going to therapy doesn't mean something's wrong with you means are investing in yourself to keep your mind healthy, better help is, surmised, online therapy that offers videophone and even live chat sessions with through therapist? So you don't have to see anyone on camera if you dont want to its much more affordable than in person therapy, and you can start communicating
your therapists in under forty eight hours. We invest in everything else and not in your mind. This package is sponsored by better help and the weeds listeners get ten percent off their first month at better help. Dot com, slash weeds, that's, b e t, T r, HD, lp dot com slash weeds. This episode is sponsored by sales force, customer three sixty your unique and so your customer sales force. Customer three sixty gives you a more holistic view by uniting all your takes marketing sales, first service, and I t around a shared view of your customer. The result, your employees, everything they need to do their best work and give you customers in amazing experience to learn about what seals course customary. Three sixty can do for your business visit sales for start Flash customer three. Sixty welcome back
So this week's white paper is about crime. So I'm going to let her mind whose our resident crime guy take the lead in explaining it remind take it away. They receive resident criminal for us cope with it I love crimes, but I do not commit them some crime guy, that's that's mine. It gets up the stuff it was published by and be, are love them, and the authors were Monica does a Tom Loo and Joanna Catherine. Mc Lean and basically they August on County Office Base Mental health care providers. So if you think of liking tripped at the psychologist or a psychiatrist, the standard trip to their office that that's kind of like that. The kind of setting we're talking about here and then they compared lake the access to these places at the county level to the cost of juvenile. ass, they focus on costs of juvenile rats and I think this makes sense, but essentially they didn't look at our rest themselves because engender
we care more about violent crime than we do about property crime and the murders have much higher costs to society, and you know somebody getting there, I found stolen. So that's kind. Like why they look at the cost of this can be more representative of the actual damage done by crimes anyway, from ninety ninety. Ninety, twenty. Sixteen they found that ten more offices lead to two point: three percent to two point: six percent reduction and juvenile arrest costs. So, a pretty direct correlation between more access to mental health care and a reduction in juvenile arrest costs, and there was also a similar decrease in juvenile arrest by like you could see The data was a bit noisy, so it's hard to make too much of it by like that, the juvenile rascals held up one thing about it. I was interested. The findings were stronger for older mail and white juveniles. I think older and male makes sense, because you know older teenagers are probably more likely to be committing crimes, especially boys, so that makes sense, but the way
it is interesting to me because it probably speaks to like a racial disparity and access to mental health care, which is not good for all sorts of reasons, so that there is one thing to keep in mind and this fund is also strongest for like violent crime. So this is like getting some of the big benefits it should be said, like two point three to two point: six percent like this not going to turn the. U S and Japan in terms of crime like these are pretty modest effects, but leg economy since we are talking about office, space cares we're talking about people going to an office usually voluntarily like these are not people who are necessarily suffering from the worst mental illness. At the time they're going to get mental health care right there at least able to get transportation and get to one of these offices to begin with, the probably suggests a bit about mental health, and also these offices are just not as intense as like the old stereotypical state psychiatric wards of people think about so the
Treatment is not gonna, be ass, hands, honest as those kinds of settings war, but at the end of the day. Like look, you see this reduction in juvenile rest costs and also be authors. Looked at this. They also found a like you, benefits to actual mental health, which is good because that's what we would want out of mental health care to begin with and like that that result in fewer suicide, that's on average, so I mean to me: it's it's a pretty positives like work, you can boost mental health care and you see not only benefits and mental helping. Others sides doing in juvenile Ras, and I should emphasise here that there are, like other studies, backing this up from designed. Other authors like fine, like look. If you increase mental health care there, there is lower crime. As a result, and we're gonna apiece semi related to this on cognitive behavioral therapy, at a specific kind of mental health care. As an effective intervention, especially in developing countries, that there's been a lot of surprisingly strong findings in terms of people
burning, more money again more assets, just be happier even in certain groups be situations that are very cost effective to provide and One of the more relevant studies to our white paper this week is won by a Chris Black men Joint Amazon and Margaret Sheridan, that did a cognitive, behavioral therapy programme in Liberia and those those civically among about a thousand young men in Liberia, many of whom were served ex combatants in the liberian civil war, all of whom had some kind of no background or were observed in social now. for that was common and they didn't fines are for first on murder, violent crime arisen. That's Nasser the headline. Finding that the main findings are. You were much less likely to to carry guns and much less likely to sell drugs, and much likelier to start like non drug dealing businesses, and so it's
exactly the same set of findings, but but it similar in, and there have also been some positive results out of a per in Chicago call becoming a man. That's also serve targeting young men and in trying to do so at sea, BT style therapy. I've had c b t therapy justice like with a therapy, and it s really a very useful general purpose tool that it's it's about, trying to think critically your own thought, patterns and notice the ways you think about ones, answer if cognitive distortions that they are keeping you from seeing the world accurately and like cause you to serve panic or having society and being able to take a step back from your own brain, and think about it, rational way and then stand where your emotions are coming from an and how to control them better. An that's, obviously super important if you have like serious mental health problems as those are just like useful general and light. I like to think that if I didn't go in
thirdly, because I was depressed in those like when develope four out of someone paid me too for a study. Then I would like also have some benefits from just being like more in touch with with how I think about these things. and so the weight of evidence behind that as a therapy and ends of some of the evidence. Chicago and Liberia is also inches, Give me an instance of corroborate the mechanism in the stapler that her mom was just laying out just that doing. That kind of therapy seems to change how people think of that themselves in a way that makes them less likely to engage in really dangerous to riskier violent behavior. Worth taking a step to think about the mechanism by which disordered mental health can lead to violence and there's like for that. This paper sort of outlines. The first is that deserve our thinking itself could impact away. You perceive other people, It seems more threatening or you can feel more terrified in a situation that under a typical first may I had that fear. The second is that you might self medicate with substances which are meant to be the resident Herman hearing,
no he's here like it could be I'll call, which obviously can lead to two really bad ends, but also could be just and what kind of substance then I put you in touch with illegal activity. If there are not legal in your area or it's not legally prescribed to you. The third is that your moral? Could he be pissed? he does vulnerable by people who are looking to commit some sort of crime and your end once you're victimized victimized possible to a to of cycle of violence, and then. Fourthly, it's like an increase likelihood that up softer by view you as a threat or may view your mental illness as inherently criminal, and we know that there's disproportionate amount of people who experience mental health on difficult he's in the compulsory system. So I think that's like interesting, you think about, because, like really something Alec where that channel. channels? Really the most important one is like important for a policy response there anymore to this point were in general. I am finishing thing I found I'm here. Is that, like it wasn't just access to pharmaceuticals right that? I assume that, like what was happening here when I first saw the abstract was people are getting a hundred doctors? Some portion of them are going
grab some kind of medication and ban. Ah, you know their better because they have drugs now, but a this study is looking at people who are just not all prescribing facilities, but further. They say that we, ride, suggestive evidence that non physicians appear to be more effective in reducing Joe. no crime than physicians, and that this finding mirrors recent studies on general population and not just on juveniles, and that is like super interesting. I mean we know that there are side effects of some of these drugs, which it might be the case even others like countervailing force. If you take like Prozac, which you take for depression, I ask you to be agitated and their other things of other medicines as well, but also to stimulate, really suggests what Almost sayings there is like something specifically going on here, potentially with the therapy you or whatever it is their providing and it could just be structure could be like you're going to office you're talking like your feelings, there's a human being there whose like listening to you and sanctioning back, is this. The study was specifically about C B, T Ernie, any specific kind of carelessness.
in general, you going to office based care, but you know so those interesting to me that I got my first assumption going. Those papers like it's gonna, be drugs. Drugs are great love pharmaceuticals, And that's not really what's going on here so about interesting- are gonna work when people read this kind of paper that they'll think like while people mental illness are committing lots of crimes and like to be where that is not actually the case. Most people with mental illness are not going around committing crimes, I mean, but it is also just the harsh reality that lake mental illness can contribute to more violence and crime it in some people. So I'm not. Obviously there also different kinds of mental illnesses and, like people behave in while they different ways as a result, the like this one I emphasise that because you now that the criminal justice system has in some ways criminalized mental illness in the past few decades and like that's, that's not what this paper suggesting. We should do in fact with suggesting the opposite. That of these people, mental health care, the criminal justice system actually not need to get involved at all. My takeaway,
This is always pharmaceuticals are great too lax approach, shadow to I'll, be trend, therapies, great good affair. He love my therapist. You can see me on that. The weeds lives there. I think that other things paper rays thou. Is that obviously had now a national conversation for over a year and a half, I guess about redirecting government funds, away from policing and more towards social services, and obviously they don't look. until like enow taking money away from police and mortar social services. But I will say it like in the hullabaloo over this add the most important point that kind of got lost over this debate. just like yeah increasing services, so services can reduce crime because you can reduce lot of the things that the Trojan determines of crime. You know, I think it's clear with health care
This is why we ve seen this with medicate as well and have increased medicate expansion. States like that can reduce crime as well. If you make people better off in general, like there was slightly commit crime for a bunch of the reasons we talked about the beginning of the segment and also it Morlock would be able to get and for themselves the kind of healthcare they would need to not put themselves in a situation where they might be susceptible to being victimized from them, that, and so I don't know I didn't visit- that's that's interesting to make that just like, obviously not not per month hormones normal take on these I mean, I think, with a defined the police thing at another, yet there two things that donor add up for me. One is that, like there is research showing that, like more police officers, reduce crime. So there's like you, know the question of. Why don't we do both like. If, if we want to say for society, why do we find ways to reach the increase, like our police force, for me, further been used in the right way being held accountable, not harassing people not being racist, and you know, funding these social sir.
who says it is certainly like you know that the federal government on a lot of money out there in the past few years? Surely it could afford to spend more on both these kinds of services? The other thing that just has really never made that and I think it's a huge problem for the deep on the place of the council, is it the funding mechanism. Tears is just would not make sense, like most city budget. Do not cover in any significant way, health care and mental health care, in particular That's usually handled at the county level, state level or federal level and dashes of practical impact. I gave a city cuts, its police department and, Rita new Mental Health Department is that New Mental health department gonna be factor to begin with. Like I dont know, because another aspect of this is Chances are cutting the police department like by twenty percent, fifty percent, or even just eliminating it. If that's how far you willing to go that, probably
not be enough money to offer serious mental health care to people like this is a big problem is like these. Social services can be really expensive. I think they're worth the cost, but one we're looking at like policing budgets. I don't think they would cover the full cost of like the kind of investment that society as a whole needs to really bring down crime. So you know it's not that lake, I'm like saying that this a squaw. Policing is great and we should keep it absolutely not, but it is there. I think, there's big questions about whether that saw the right avenue to actually increase social services and at the end of them. Secondly, we even need to define the police to begin where to actually afford these other things. It seemed like something that federal State county governments could be doing regard Of that, well, I didn't mean to kick off a whole other podcast at all. You say one thing, which is just that. I think that the on this kind of paper to be indicates those it's a way of thinking about what an ideal world would look like. I think, for some people and ideal world would look like there would always be police there.
Like others, we some level of crime, of course, regardless of what society be able to construct is, but if it she is like if we can get a level of crime or we have provided everyone. Social service is necessary in order to like be in a position not to have contact with a negative forces should forces in also have liked the health care, etc. Like and also, if you're, that person and you believe that the police cannot be reformed outta, I don't know decades of evidence not being if this be reformed, but I do think that there's like something he's out there, but this is an entire podcast and we should, get into it over an hour and without our ever sort of bushwhackers like what are you said, there is interesting to me like the way you described it is like you increase the social services, and then society becomes safe enough to reduce police presence, and I feel like this has been something it's always phobia about different places like in some ways it backwards. You don't cut police and then find social services, and things will be great
you boosts social services, society will be much safer in the long term. I think because of that, then you can reduce police presence, but, like you now that that's out will help to describe where the password have. I know this, like a whole, another progress- and I well you heard here first folks, Herman said he wants to eventually to fund the police. That's it doesn't show up. So I M gonna wrap up the show that I've completely lost control over and it is rolled out of control, about defending the police and save that is all for us today, thanks This remark, Lopez and Jerusalem dumpsters for having yonder podcast our producers, so few alarmed living
in this area, to toil adviser Amber all as the deputy editorial director for talk pockets and I'm your hosting name. Only Dylan Matthews, you can get even more weeds content by signing up for a new letter, go to vocs dot com, slash weeds letter. We are going to be back in your feeds this Friday with Chechen long she's, one of my favorite tax experts. and we're gonna be talking all about he built back better plan and how it's going to change the tax code. We will see you, then the weeds is part of the box media podcast network. You probably know that smartphones really got started with the Iphone did. You know there was an innovative, app driven smartphone six years before it, I'm
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Transcript generated on 2021-11-17.