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The Kiev Caper


Jane, Dara, and Matt break down the scandal that seems to have set Trump on the road to impeachment.

Links to resources discussed:

“To beat Trump, try running an outsider” by Matthew Yglesias, Vox

“The timeline of Trump’s decision to withhold aid to Ukraine is increasingly suspicious” by Sean Collins, Vox

“A wave of moderate House Democrats are suddenly eager for an impeachment investigation” by Ella Nilson, Vox

“Segregation and Violence Reconsidered: Do Whites Benefit from Residential Segregation?” By Michael T. Light & Julia T. Thomas (white paper)


Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias), Senior correspondent, Vox

Jane Coaston (@cjane87),  Senior politics reporter, Vox

Dara Lind (@DLind), Immigration reporter, ProPublica

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Support for this episode. Country clicker lose an average of three hours every day, switching between all our work apps, but you can get them back with click on a flexible platform of the brain, all your central tools in one place: people prioritize tasks, collaborate on docks, chat with your team and track comes it's? Why companies like Hoover and website used click up? Is that mission Control Centre, placing every other aptly we're using before even guarantees to help you save one day a week and get more done? It's completely customizable and it's free forever to dry click up today. It click up that calm, slash, weeds yeah? This is Marquez, Brownlee, acre ambiguity, and this is Andrew, Manga, Nellie Movement. Introduce you to our part, cast way form the nuisance into the box media back ass network. So I spent for ten years, reviewing tech products and consumer electronics for millions of people on the empty, is to Youtube Channel and now on the way forward
Ass Andrew and I use that experience to dig even deeper into latest tech for smartphones too. I max to electric cars. So if you're gadget lover, orator, cat or if you just want to figure out whether the latest gadget is worth your harder in cash. Give us a lesson say can find way: form empty beauty park ass on your favorite Pakistan every Friday, so you over there, the youth programme and sign for I've, watched it on Hulu sense. You said it is also a funny little because they are supposed to be my age and I like what When did the early? Ninety, my god, hello welcome to another sort of the weeds on the box media pod cast at work. I Matthew Glaziers here which in coastal pro public as Dara Wind out before
sorry, if you guys, could you help us out in pod, cast land a little bit? We are running a survey. It is advanced media, dot, com, slash pod survey. I getting input from you about what we're doing here, really important to the future of vocs media dot com, slash pod survey- we are excited, be I'm excited Guess, impeachment talk is heating up it's one of the now we are. We pick this episode topic like a whole the eight hours ago, and yet this is the rare forty eight hour window that his vindicated our choice. It ass, you all know, got a name, rosier lose and so the subject of inquiry is Ukraine and Donald Trump and a whistle blower report that first started the leaking into the media a few days ago, and the basic contours of the situation are that Congress appropriated bunch of military assistance to the government of Ukraine. They trump Administration was holding up the disbursement of that aid and then they
peer to have had conversations with ukrainian government in which at Trump was we don't know exactly what Trump said, but at a minimum strongly hinting that, if The Ukrainians wanted to get their military assistance there. We're gonna have to help trump out by launching some kind of corruption inquiry that was designed to make Joe. Look bad said, yeah the Romans understanding of this. Yet it seems to be that there are kind of three separate stories here: there's Biden and his son Hunter and their dealings in the Ukraine, then there's trump, who wants an investigation into whatever happened, political purposes, not because he's genuinely concerned about corruption in the Ukraine and then is how we, the media, are talking about both of these stories well appears to in some ways have infuriated everyone. I mean it
I would add kind of sub to their the em. What kinds of pressure Donald Trump arraigned at slash other arms of the Trump governments, Rudy Giuliani, who may or may not have been acting as our policy as being an arm of the Trump administration we re- which again is I felt this is that we organise I'd, I'm not gonna. Let us get sidetracked. I am not going to wander off onto a what Rudy Giuliani now and when did he know its path, but I still am like. Why would the State Department ask that guy to do that with this? Is the If thing where I found myself over the weekend, relying on vocs dot com content because it turns out no longer being a full time, boxed outcome, play means, I no longer have the snake ambient awareness of all of the news I'm warning caught up every morning. There was no other way back cried wreck several administrations ago. In Ukraine there was a ukrainian energy company, and Hunter Biden was on. The boat
of that Energy Company rang Joe Biden was vice president of the United States. At that time there was a prosecutor who was doing an investigation into this energy company. Then that prosecutor was himself fired as part of some interest ukrainian hubbub. The allegation against Joe Biden, which was first aired by KEN Vogel in the time, a few months ago was that, by had inappropriately interceded with the ukrainian government in order to help this company that his son was involved with. This, in fact, has been look TAT right and is not true to the best of my knowledge Anders Iceland, who is a I assume, swedish from the name like International
corruption die. He did a thread on this. Nobody who isn't running against Joe Biden for office in the international community seems to have had any problem with this prosecutor having gun, fired or think that Joe Biden had anything, to do with it anyway rate it. As a matter of fact, the concern about the prosecutor appears not to have been that he wasn't that he was doing too much to investigate this company, but that, if anything, he wasn't doing enough to do and to investigate in a similar rather late, that that corruption in that sector, and so the logic of Joe Biden, tried to get this dude fired because he might continue to not investigate his sons that accompany his entire argument. Binds is when he talked about this in March. Twenty sixteen cause this come up before is that he was not the only person who wanted this prosecutor gone basically like
I M F wanted him gone, and so his quote was I'm leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fire, it you're not getting the money and then Joe Biden, because he's Joe Biden said well son of a bitch. She got fire and they put in place someone who is solid at the time and that to Joe Biden risk at the end of the story, but so so that is the very thing that occurred. So then there was this story: where does this story planted with with Vogel at the time which was trying to gin this back up again as a corruption thing, but that story I look. I mean this was like classic like gear you're, lucky to get your upper written up. It was like the story and the stories, I guess but actually buy, didn't do this rate. One of the things that makes it tricky to talk about this is because we're all
and by we I mean both the media and the broader lake population. Of politically aware, people in the United States a little bit traumatized by twenty succeeding right, and so there is substantial difficulty in talking about things that could have the appearance of corruption, especially when related to democratic politicians, because I think everyone who is trying to talk about this in good faith has in the back of their minds. Ok, a similar discourse when it came to the Clinton Foundation was a substantial part of the content of the conversation around Hilary Glens candidacy and twenty sixteen, and that resulted in her being damaged by this kind of vague appearance of corruption, stuff that didn't necessarily have the goods and losing to say no to a figure who does not care about the appearance of corruption in the least so with that said, there is a broad or, conversely,
given that in a more same polity could be had about what are the objects of having your son on the board of an energy company in a global hotspot, while you're the vice president of the United. While I agree, but I do, I wanna like run down the that the narrative thread of the saga to the and because I think exactly what you said about twenty sixteen, but in the opposite ratings that, like Donald Trump so learn the lessons of twenty sixteen. I think that he understood that, like, while a The appearance of impropriety regarding something Hunter Biden did years ago, is not going to be a good campaign issue for him you have an ongoing investigation. The existence of the investigation is itself
news story right. Unlike the final nail in the coffin for Clinton's campaign was the news that the FBI investigation into her email server had been reopened right, and that did happen right like the reopening of the investigation was a real thing. Now it turns out. In retrospect it was reopened simply because of the discovery of new copies of emails. They had already reviewed right, but its win. An investigation exists that becomes a perpetual source of news were even though this hunter situation had already been investigated and the facts, very well known Trump is pressure. The ukrainian government to say they are opening a new investigation? Right I mean You could be naive about this and be like well, if hundreds Nothing wrong if Joe Biden did nothing wrong than what's wrong with the new investigation, what's wrong with the new investigation right? Is that like having a drifter,
of news stories about the Hunter Biden, investigation in Ukraine would be very bad for Joe by, and I also use this is a big I thought of his arrest smart- that there's a concern for commentator who pointed out that, like trunk, has tried this with. Basically everyone, if you'll remember his thoughts about Jeffrey Epstein were Lou. I wonder if the Clinton's killed him, you basic EU, if he could have a long going investigation into every democratic figure who exists in the world and some who don't yet. He would be perfectly happy because he knows that the presence of an investigation into someone who isn't him for an especially because he could be like you. Why are you looking at this? Why are you looking at that when in I think that that's why you ve seen a lot of folks them alive? to our one very mad, it can vocal about ashore, because what then can vocal went on MSNBC and basically said if trumped could be a little quieter, we could continue. This investigation wrote that like we can vocalist is doing the thing. It's totally understandable, journalist move it's a very, very
very bad leg, you know dude going on tv. In finding the right to say there is a fair there. I'm that my reporting is gonna turn something up, because when you're doing as a journalist like yes, of course, that's the conversation you have to have with your editor in order to Lake be allowed to continue to report the story. But when you're going on tv in seeing various there there, everyone is going to hear it as Joe Biden is corrupt Wes. Do I do want to return to this hunter? Think, as I mean I, I don't think I'm a wretched totally of their heads in the sand about this, but they moving forward right, like The president, like you're, allowed to have whatever wishes. You want about land, cranium government, helping you out, but appears rovaniemi, we don't know the full details, but but it like America has farm policy. Yet right and Congress said Ukraine was gonna, get this money not for no reason, but this is. Why is like everything
one big Trump scanned alright, but like the ukrainian government needs of military assistance to prevent Russian backed of forces in eastern Ukraine from dismembering or taking over the crater right and so tromp was seeming. Say like he doesn't like Ukraine? No, he doesn't want to give Ukraine help. We know that for whatever reason. He has a great deal of sympathy for Vladimir Putin's sort of world view and end geopolitics, and so tromp was not going to give Ukraine the money that Congress had appropriated for them. Unless Ukraine would help him out not like help the United States of America out with some foreign policy thing, we need help on, but help him out with a specific political problem right, and that is the
or of the wrong doing here right like even if we'd like, I think, we're gonna start musicians have been wondering about four months. There is actually the Wall Street Journal Span really good on the story and there's a peaceful yesterday from Chiffon Hughes who talks about how we want both Democrats Republicans have been trying to figure out why there has been this massive delay in money going to the Ukraine, and so you check Schumacher, called Mitch, Mcconnell to ask and glass who directed the suspension of aid and now. This is why starting to look like, perhaps the air was suspended it. It also appears that that the be duly departed National Security adviser John Bolton had been trying to get this money flowing. It's not who, by the way, jungle in very interested in talking to people which is it hits correspondingly keys
There's a look he's looking into a book deal and you're, starting to see the kind of quotes where your leg did. That quote come with a mustache rate. Will I do think that that is. You know that it is really difficult to overstate the importance of the bottom departure timing for this right, because it is both plausible that one of the issues that hastened the departure of John Bolton would be a difference of opinion over. Is it important to give military aid to Ukraine, which is trying to resist rush, interfere hadn't been yet, and you can also understand Someone who has just left with a chip on their shoulder might be willing to lake spills and beans about stuff and helps them. Reporters confirms among just that kind of thing right, but, but it is, I think I think the other. The flip side of that is that it really is important too at all phases of this. Remember that the reason that you'd be U S would be giving aid to Ukraine to begin with is because the Eu S has they stay.
It position that Russia should not be getting involved in trying to annex parts of the Ukraine or hidden install it's like own people at the head of the country, whereas old trump- has a known lack of interest in pursuing that straddling. This is amazing. Janus Arturo many times but like this is policy towards Ukraine. Separate from the question of of Joan hundred Binding is a classic of Like Donald from Paradise, but tried the willing the Trump administrations policy has been more hawkish on Russia than the Obama administration policy was, but trumps policy is much more dervish and so you saw that tension here and there had been stories going back. I public stories right of light Rudy Giuliani is like doing these traps, he's making these efforts, but would specifically broke brokers over into scandal, territory,
It's some kind of a whistle blower, I think from the National Security Council staff filed an official was about a report to the AM national Intelligence Director Inspector General's office, and you are supposed to, under the statute hand these complaints over to that the gang of eight congressional leaders who oversee the agents community, because you know this came up with snowed in it. It's come a time and time again right, but, like the can government does not want people on the intelligence community leaking classified information to the press, but also there has to be some way in fury that you get comply. Addressed, and so the legal process that you are supposed to follow is this goes to the inspector general. The inspector general is supposed to forward it to the congressional oversight committees, and then they are supposed to exercise some kind of independent judgment as to whether more people need to know about this and the Trump Administration, as has been typical, with their response to.
kinds of oversight has just not done right, saying we haven't been very amusing because if you will recall all the way back to last Friday, Kevin Mccarthy and a host of other applicants wreck. Why didn't this whistle blower just go before Congress needs, because the White House won't let them right. So you know the sort of proximate issue here. I think right the one that has inspired house Democrats from swing seats to suddenly be more interested in impeachment right, is that they are trying to escalate and open a door to de escalation, which would be for the White House to start following the law and hand over the whistleblowers report, and I think that that the escalation model may have been valid up until a lake twenty four hours ago. But I think that the latest revelations about the not only who was responsible for withholding aid from Ukraine, but also what appears to have been a delay
effort from the White House and Mc Mulvaney acting White Ass chief of staff and also acting head of the office emitted, hugged or actual head of the Office of management budget to mislead Congress of why that aid was being with us, but I mean it's you you would have to not ready made. The point is, I think you know right now. It's like impeachment impeachment impeachment, but like the possible like long dull story of this, is that the administration will in fact cough up the paperwork and then that will start a process of getting things, because right now, what we have is like, I trust the Washington Post for nurse and that story about Mc Mulvaney is wrong, but it is a very like its investigative journalism. You know like multiple guideline sources familiar and
in a net, occasionally from saying something like yeah, I thought Germany should have paid this money or anything like that, which is one of those things where it's been interesting, because Byron York at the Washington examiner had a peace that he was like a lot of administration poorly. There is this phone call that apparently took place between Trump and ukrainian President Woloda Meares Landscape, Winch Trump allegedly asked eight times for an investigation into Hunter Biden and some trouble mistaken people like what just released the transcript of the phone call. Then we can get this all hash that and I'm sure it's fine, which I feel as if the phrase I'm sure it's fine is uttered so many times in the executive office building, but like that you're starting to see some people, even within trompe in circles, are giving like well, why don't? We just see what my person, I think, like the transcript, is a little bit of a red herring. He rightly you need to see the whole complaint because, like these Lee
about mulvaney irrelevant, rightly one phone call D context realised in which Trump keeps badgering the guy and the guy keeps stalling him. That's just gonna be like what who's to say like like. Maybe you wish the president has said: rat didn't hit lake has been known to go off on a weird rifts and calls with foreign leaders all the time. The it you knows, subdue question in this investigation is what degree of follow up. Is there from people who are not Donald Trump too, like actual diplomats, after really knew the president is serious about that. Well, I'm waitin on an intergovernmental level, exact like when people had kissed. If the set up for that call right was. The foreign minister of Ukraine was told by the assistant secretary of state for Eastern Europe, you ve gotta, get this sort it out with the president. He's got some kind of problem with you.
And then you get on the phone with companies badgering you by the investigation, like that's very different. It's like you need the whole record of what actually happened here. Of course, I don't know what the whistleblowers statement said. So I can't tell you if it is a fully documented set of events, but like that's, why I mean for one thing: Congress has to see it because that's what the statute says, but also a you need a fuller picture of these things. It's not good enough for the white, store view everything they have then decide what isn't that damning and then release that, like that's, not how that's how it is supposed to work here. I think that I mean we should we should take a break in and talk about the impudent
picture, but I do think that its- it is no longer just a thing about what is in this whistle blower report. It is also the aid is, to a certain extent, a dead letter right like men release. Mcconnell has decided that his take on this is to go to the Senate floor and talk about how badly he wanted that aid released and how glad he is that it was, but now that we have, this post story, which, like yes, multiple byline sources, say but also immediately confirmed by basically everybody else who has a substantial team could be investigating the sort of thing which tends to indicate that there is a critical mass of people with a meeting ministration who wanted to get this out there is that raises questions about, like was Congress being actively misled by the White House, and that is the kind of like fundamental trust question that, like you can
just released. The whistle blower important have anything ever have them safer things, hunky dory. If there is evidence that there were several weeks this summer during which Congress was being told. Oh there's an inter agency hold up In fact that was Mc Mulvaney. Since I am the agency, I am the law right. Let's take a break, we live with a lot of noise between them things, the dings, the emails labelled urgent. That aren't really that urgent, it's hard to cut through the static zero when on the things that really matter just like, we can train our bodies to be better running faster Have you we could train our minds to stay focused. Do all the noise we live with step, one download head space, hits bases and have loaded with guide. You meditations designed offer a daily doses, mindfulness concessions for every situation like a three minute s away. Meditation when you're overwhelmed by the day and even meditations, you could do it. You, kids, when you're all of run by the day had space has been like a really cool.
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a mug distressing, it's an unbiased feedback, you be pretty spies where you can gain for it see if it's for you, the weeds, sponsored by better help and listeners get ten percent off the first month, better help dot com such weeds, that's, b, e t, t e r, H, e L, a p d come slash weeds, so I think this has become a a delicate subject for Democrats, because I don't think that it is great to cast this as a question of like Equivalence or like both sides are bad, but the fundamental reason why Trump sees political upside in getting Hunter Biden in some kind of investigative spotlight is at the well story of Hunter Biden? If you read the New Yorker profile of him, that was written. If you read at politicos investigation,
into Hunter, and his uncle James is various business dealings is a picture that is not like a super pretty picture. Its not one were any like horrifying, acts of corruption take place or necessarily anything bad happens to anybody. But this is A guy two guys really like a brother and son of long time, important politician, whose whole career seems to be hanging around an implying to various people that hiring them. We'll get you stuff from Joe Biden and, like you know, you ask yourself like why was Hunter Biden on the board of this ukrainian energy company? In the first place, Wade in its, I think, pretty obviously just like some kind of vague sense on the part of whoever was was involved that like what they couldn't hurt to like
have a good in with the administration, and it seems like it didn't help them out with this particular jam, and it seems like a form from Ben Sugars report in political on this. If you like, this has been like Joe Biden general posture on this, like his they're starting investment, find an part of his pitch was like will I'm gonna get labour unions to invest in and they're gonna wanna. Do it because I want to invest in Joe Biden and it turned out that he was just bullshitting right and, like Joe Biden didn't, do anything tell them raise money from from unions so good for Joe, but like also, I mean, I think this is the kind of reason why people who, like trumps cultural politics, dont mine, trumps, corruption, that they just sort of view. What is the system is correct route, which is, I think that that's one of the interesting things about this and I checked tapir- was talking to Steve Ammunition,
I think you yesterday on this very subject, because, if you're talking about, if you are very concerned about Hunter Biden Boy, have I to do, I need to introduce you to Donald Trump Junior and evolve. Tromp and Eric Trump, the other one, because I think that there is a sense. There is a long history in american presidential politics of kind of family who's on the perhaps sums some reminder some can remember. The Rogers Clinton of the world, a name I'm sure some of you have not heard like thirty years, but like this was. This has always been kind of a thing and it yo. It happened within the Jimmy Carter administration that somebody came up a bunch during Bill Clinton to term. in terms of the involvement of both Clinton's and Roddam is in very who all tried to use the Clinton or brought em name to get somewhere, and so it's been an interesting moment in which, if you
are very, very concerned about genetic Jake Tapir made this point like if you're very concerned about Hunter button, then, should you not be concerned with the fact that the Trump organization still continues on the word, while Europe clearly benefiting the president of the United States. But if you are now very concerned about Hunter Biden, does that mean you should not be concerned with the involvement of the trunk children and it's one of those? It's one of those weird things where something about twenty? Sixteen that I really got was just a degree to how much things perceived within the world of DC, like the fact that everyone knows each other and everyone emails each other and it turns out political rivals, just hang out and go to red rocks on H street together people outside of that world, find that like Nsima, I don't like how dare you how
Do you really think it villas laying for real state Yan you, and this may be a weirdo spy versus spy? We shake hands at the end of the NGO, get Tapie. Our drinks, but then with a story like this in my head, unlike it sounds to me like a Lick Hunter Biden, kind of a fail son who could have failed upwards and, like I know that you ve heard that story before and especially within the context of Joe binds family, which has been marked by such immense tragedy. This this seems to me, as kind of like that seems kind of extended stroke If you are not a part of this, if you do not observe politics in the same way, that idea- which is probably for the best, I can understand how like what the wing, the idea of trumps corruption, is kind of like well we're just getting hours back after years of putting up with Clinton's so spake. This gets to what I think is the trickiest part of this, which
unlike twenty sixteen, when so much of the kind of Clinton, my asthma, what happened during the general election phase of the campaign where it was it was determinate. Hillary Clinton was the person facing Donald Trump. This is happening in the mid. Of an active primary campaign in which let us not lose sight of the fact that, like Joe Biden, has been showing a certain amount of softness and pulls lately and so so the reason the Donald Trump cares about Hunter Biden has because- and we know this because it's very widely reported Donald Trump is obsessed with the question of who is gonna run against him in twenty twenty. He thinks he's a political genius because he won the election and twenty sixteen and refugees. You know trying you like pick his opponent and like mood. You know why are going to be good opposition tactics against his opponent, he's much more worried about Joe Biden than he is about the rest of the candidates in the race, which makes sense, given Donald Trump assessment of himself is like the most popular person in the world right because
to a certain extent the Joe Biden political theory is. There are Donald Trump Lake in food, fairly, enthusiastic Donald Trump voters in twenty. Sixteen who will come out for Democrats getting twenty twenty right and he he's much less concerned about like save VII Viii, Elizabeth WAR and of the world, he's very convinced that he can just like, say Pocahontas and everyone will fill out. So this is from Prague trying to pull like a hairy reed right where you pick the you tried in me capture straw, opponents, so that you can face a weaker opponent right. That assumes like that making a host of assumptions about does one. Sixteen was because I think that we have talked about this before that. We saw during the mid term trumpets like I didn't win, because of economic anxiety or because of concerns about protectionism. I run one because I too
everybody, immigrants were coming to kill them and I'll just keep telling people that immigrants are coming to call them and then, during the mid terms, there are a lot of arguments made about what happened during the mid term. The insight impact of Cavanaugh hearings are things like that, but clearly that messaging didn't quite work. Two girls in the house- and so you can it since, like Trump, does think that deal his political genius of winning and twenty sixteen had nothing to do with his his opponent, but with himself, and I think that he thinks, if I just do this again, it'll be fun right. I definitely. I think that it would be a bad idea for the democratic, primary constellation of institutions and people to look at Donald Trump Card Joe Biden say wow Donald Trump, really scared of Uncle Joe. That must mean that uncle Joe is the strongest candidate we can run. However, I do think there are a couple of dynamics here that, even if Trump has not like explicitly identify them, might actually contribute to trumps point. One of
Them is that we have seen not only in the twenty sixteen cycle, but after that that a certain part of the anti establishment democratic left you no kind of does by into the Trump argument that corruption is endemic than everybody's doing it, and that that actually should reflect badly on democratic politicians who have done anything like this. To a certain extent you no kind of among the com. Harriet that's gone for being anti anti trumped, you like actively programme, but you can definitely anticipated. There are a lot of Lake Bernie Sanders. Twenty sixteen primary voters who are looking at this and saying gee. This seems like a good reason not to run Joe Biden Lagoon you can you can find if you can make that lodge ornament. The other part of this is that Joe Biden, NHS candidacy and twenty twenty is based on. Everything was great before Donald Trump came on the scene, wouldn't it be great to go back to that. That makes this a very
very risky thing for him to be responding to, because it's very easy for him to say something like everything is everything that is being talk That is perfectly normal of which would play into the anti establishment critique that from what's. This I mean this is the ambiguity of american public opinion right when I think a deep. We craves a return to normal, see right after these sort of chaos and madness of the Trump world fears to an extent like a strong, radical ideological left wing over. All of american public policy waiting mean like we. There were some good pulling out over the weekend. There's like trumps Wall idea is unpopular, but like Democrats idea that undocumented immigrants should get government financed, health care is even more unblock right, like people sort of like Wanna get rid of tromp one.
get rid of the madness like some democratic ideas, but are not like craving the furthest left ideas, but at the same time I didn't write my he's today, like those Gallup Poll from back and twenty forty and right, and it showed that it had been ten years earlier, sixty percent of the public thought corruption was widespread american politics by the late, Obama years was up to seventy five percent right, so each very dangerous, like people want a return to normal. But then, when you looking detail, I what normal was like and then you say Blake, while that, just nor like that that doesn't it doesn't go over that were right that, like two people I dont know people like me. People like us, people who, like in DC right and things talking petitions. It seems very striking to me that, like there is normal stuff and then there is Stuff right is beyond the normal, but like it's not that voters don't recognize
that there is a difference between normal and abnormal, but like the normal way of doing business in Washington, is not considered by the mass public to be acceptable. finally- and this is why I think traditionally you have you- no endless cycles- are politicians or whether its the young, the senator like J, F, K or Barack Obama or like the random governor, like Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, like you, ve tended to get people who are not like outside the political system in the true sense people who are not entrenched Washington figure, I mean that's the intact, like Mr Smith, goes to Washington. This idea that you can be this like. believing outsider, which I think is kind of, where the perceptions of Bernie Sanders kind of the idea of Bernie Sanders, Niver whole theory on now, there's Bernie Sanderson's can The idea of Bernie Sanders in those are two different things, but kind of this I did you can have somebody who comes in. clean as everything up and puts out you all the best
against the wall and makes every one answer for everything that they did, and I think that that is something that people need to be responsive shooting. I totally understand Joe Biden Pitch, especially young people, or there's been a lot of writing about like how solitude with like older african american voters, I'm like well, if you're an african american voter, late, sixties, early seventies and somebody is decades. Remember the Obama presidency and I sure do do you wanna do again well, ok, I think that that's an effective message in South Carolina and other areas, and I think that one thing that we didn't have to contest within twenty sustainable Samuel. Weird is now twenty. Sixteen is this thing that hangs over everything, and so everyone's reaction to the reporting on this story was we're doing it again, we're doing it again, like the New York Times, both sides on the front page
it's gonna, be butter emails all over again and I'm curious how much that psychological damage in a play into listen. This is my big big question. Is what does the Bernie Sanders WAR room? Look like right now. What does the Elizabeth Warren yeah worm? Look like right now, like if your peep Buddha Judge or Kemal Harris, neither of whom is attacking Biden from the left per se, but both of whom have like strong incentives to try to knock some support off the front runner in the race, like what Are you looking at this and doing because, on the one hand, there appears to be a certain amount of kind of? Not I wouldn't say frustration that honest psychology it but like there appears to be a certain bewilderment as to what can be done to Joe Biden out of his position as the front runner and, as you know, in the nomination, and make no one's really come up with an attack line that sticks and that isn't immediately like
today is the easiest way to go after Joe Biden was to talk about his age and the you know his lake, the question of whether his carpet customer, Jasper were turning into something more serious and like that was not something that even the commentariat had worked out a safe way to talk about much less the candidates themselves, but this on the one hand, is inferior, huge opportunity and, on the other hand, if you have any sense Democratic Party Loyalty- you look at this and well am I need capping the party and twenty twenty if Biden does end up winning the nomination? The reason that are most interested in the Sanders responds to this is because we know that Bernie Sanders, Envy Bernie Sanders team is not very responsive to critiques of you should shut up and do it you should shut up for the sake of her
unity like that's, why you didn't drop out in twenty six cylinder. Safie got in an interesting position. This vote because, like the Bernie Sanders view of politics, is that all disagreement with Bernie Sanders on all subjects, just is a sign of corruption, and so, when a weird way, I think it makes him like unlikely to press this specific topic web. Like I've been reading like like Bernie Sanders campaign, emails red and they had been saying quite clearly since before this but that, like the reason, burning Biden, have a different position on healthcare policy. Is that Joe Biden is on the take from the health insurance industry right That doesn't surprise me because they do, I mean you know they attribute litter we every disagreement on every subject to financial corruption, Bernie at his most populist. Really what's interesting about this. To me is like. Does this led the people? Who are
position more and the illegal article mainstream right. Your bed owes you Buddha judges to try to make the case that, like the case. I have been urging and many articles simply people to make that, like you should not offer the voting public. This like super polarize choice between, we need to go much more left wing or we need this. Harry Old, very establishment guy. Then, when you think I'm ingenue tundra, this Biden get so much. Jews out of warm memories of the Obama administration. Right Obama was a senator before impress ambiguous way new to the centre right and he and Michel lived in like a pretty reg. Our house in a normal like slightly boogie, but not like incredibly fancy Chicago neighbourhood They were near the end of paying down their student loans right there, like normal, wish people who seemed like on usually may be smart people like an
equally good it doing speeches like good politics frank but would not themselves veteran powerful politicians Obama had done some stuff in the Illinois State Legislature. That will soon be model for what he was going to do for America and to that end, reminds me much more of a better or a Buddha judge. You know, like a person, can candidacy that is based on upside. Rather, I based exactly record, much less fuzzy memories than an interesting ways in a weird different way? That's kind of similar to how Trump round suppose we basically like I've- never done this before, but as far as you know, I've been very successful. What these other thing, namely enemy, like we when we say people, remember the Obama administration. Well, that's what they remember fondly. Would they dont me and is like I fondly remember how you know: Laney Briar came into the criminal division of the Justice Department.
From having been a white shoe like White Collar Criminal defence attorney, and then he came and then he said well, we can't really do any prosecutions of any bankers wrong doing related to the financial crisis, and then he rotated back out to a well paying gig drawing my colleague criminal events like then also happened in the Obama? Yes, it's a farmer who we remember hyperactive and Biden to me is a much more like like the lease reality of politics. Is that the young New White Knight who comes to town does not in fact unleash like a cleansing fire a pair of eyes the system. It's like the system continues to try John and one of the ways the system continued. Try, John, is it Obama picked a much older, much more experienced veteran legislator whose presence on the ticket signified a you know some of its signified to like maybe white, slightly racist people. That Obama was not that bothered by gaffes, but it also sing
two members of Congress, that, like Obama, gets it like we're going to recover name that this isn't your pie in the sky, ideas which I think like yours and I D. I think that there is a concept that people have licking. We dont want politics as usual, but we can. politics is the polity may not want politics. As usual, the lake, the people who you need to enact gender. We are the ones who have enough experience in politics as usual to be invested in, and therefore make pence ends up on the Trump taken rather pence ravine Deanna was a veteran member of the house. He was somebody who republic in Washington knew personally and they understood somebody who back bent Republicans, who may not have great relationships with Trump can get on the phone with my pants and talk about whatever it is they're trying to do and, of course, rate. If one of these more outsiders Democrats gets the nomination. My expect
nation would be that they will pick of relatively long serving member of Congress to be their RP for these same kinds of reasons that, like that's, how Al Gore got on the ticket with Bill Clinton? Rightly that's. The classic way you put a ticket together is with like a fresh faced outsider at the top of the ticket and then like Dick Cheney or Joe Biden at the bottom of the ticket, and it doesn't work to just invert the red light rang like make the number two guy number one, because the number took. I was there too, lament the number one. Guy he's, not a clone, like Obama, didn't have like a second young, hip black guy on the Tick Truchen who can bring back the magic greatly as Joe Ray, I mean another way to frame. This is.
Can you imagine, after like one or two debates, assuming the ditch administration doesn't find a way to get out of the debates and inner instead. Just do like you know a bunch of more stump sweet vent. Morale is, without doubt a pretty sure is something they will at least route doing, even if they can't to get around the president the ground presidential debates, but like can you imagine not only Donald Trump turning every single question into what about Joe Biden so on the board of the ukrainian oil company by a vice presidential debate, in which some relatively young fresh face
Fresh faced lake, you know playing the role of John Edwards in twenty four type is being held to account by make pence for how can you engage in this hypocrisy of same you're, gonna, clean up government when the man at the top of your ticket is embroiled in this oil thinly? This is where it gets really really really tricky for Democrats to talk about this honestly right, because if you can learned that there is a fundamental ye, not you know warranted, but still present paranoia or liability your candidate. Do you really is the hell you die on right, do you decide that it is worth it to continue to say? Look this Joe Biden thing is merit disturbing thing. Is merit less we're going to educate, their public relentlessly about this we're gonna go to war with the New York Times every time they write, throng headline ordeal, price it in
ok warranted or not. This is something that one candidate in this field may have. The other candidates may not have, and that's a really really I mean especially again. This is all happening with a polity that Lake frankly needs to go into individual and collective therapy, because twenty sixteen has just, I think, balked. So many reactions to politics that there are some things where you can. You could have had that conversation and twenty fifteen. You cannot have that conversation. I also think, though, that if you're a democrat thinking about twenty twenty you're, not thinking of me- I think there are some people there's this idea. I figure among some of the left that this is kind of a trump has driven solely an acceleration ism forward, and now we can get to the real revolution that we were
almost entirely sixteen, but the revolution had to hold a minute, but as it were, a lot of people M based on Fox NEWS, is pulling at a bunch of other poles. People are fucking, tired, short air, extremely tired of this, and I genuinely think of people ill. I am aware that traditionally, the not that guy campaign doesn't really workers we saw two thousand for, but I think in twenty twenty. I would not be surprised if democrats we're just like well he's Donald Trump and he's not that's the campaign. goodbye everybody. I so much more to say about this, but I think we should take another break out and turn worldwide. I talk about Joe Biden on the weeds, examined in IRAN are right. It feels like You don't have enough hours in the day to get everything done. Might because you're missing out on three, where those three hours cup, I fell into a deep dark abyss that opens up when we switch between work,
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the version that was presented at the twenty nineteen Population Association of America, annual meeting, ah ha so to professors lighten Thomas. If we're gonna say something that was subsequently changed. Lake, let us know, but also dear American Sociological, review and all other academic journals get your stuff out from behind a pale all so that people like us, don't have to work from in the dead Pierre annual meeting papers. Anyway, it is called segregation and violence. Reconsidered. Do whites benefit from residential segregation question Mark and the the short answer is yes, the paper uses a bunch of different sources of data going from nineteen seventy through the twenty teens, to establish that you know, as you could probably it'll Lake logically assume segregation is very bad for violent crime rates in black communities, where they were more segregated areas tend to have higher levels of black victimization to homicide
more, I think, surprisingly, segregation turns out to be really good for white people in terms of victimization to violent crime, that in more segregated areas, and this isn't just like one of the important things about this paper. Is there not just looking at lake said did neighborhoods in cities but segregated metropolitan areas, where whites have fled to the suburbs in more segregated met rose, the white homicide rate is substantially lower than it is in a in less eager did macros end in a while. There are kind of some theoretical locations to this and actually enow is, is wing and pretty heavily on one side of a theoretical debate. The upshot of this is that you know everything that people say about criminal genetic aspects of lake poverty, of under investment of in a legal sense,
his own, because cold neighborhoods can get ignored by the police in that kind of thing like. If you play that out logically, it makes sense that this would be true, but it turns out that, yes, there, not only areas of American met rose where there appears to have been a kind of aid at each state, disinvestment and a vacuum in which violence can flourish, but also kind of opportunity. Hoarding suburbs in which white people are substantially safer than they were when they were living in cities where they could run into black people, sometimes their sing. I mean they're, distinguishing between one this methodology. Interesting about this is they see the previous? We search had indicated that more segregated cities, not safer for white people, although that more integrated city other there wasn't a solid lake theoretical argue, and that you could that, because you couldn't build a cross racial coalition in segregated cities,
the lake. That would mean that things wouldn't be able to go as well, for you know for white people, either air and land think about the ears like an empirical finding too, and they say that. But if so, if you look beyond the pattern residential segregation in the central city, and you look at them. residential segregation in the suburbs. Swayed that awaits it, and you know This is like an academic paper, so it operates within its constraints, but I think, if you take this paper into the realm of common sense right, this will be luck in some cities there, these incredibly segregate white flight suburbs and a liberal would say finger wag. Oh, this is bad. You guys and the people there would be like real talk. We got ourselves really safe neighbourhoods and that this paper essentially vindicates the races. People,
white fight impulses. He doesn't right it that way, because of course you wouldn't right a scholarly paper. That's like yeah. Actually, you guys were right to flee central cities and moved to a wide suburbs, but like this like, if you were afraid of crime and felt that the best way to insulate yours from that was to create a hyper segregated residential environment, like this paper seems to be saying that that is the case as though, probably this funding should be stopped ray, I mean the council. I do think that I mean. I think that there is a way to put that. That is slightly more economically, less inflammatory, they do that right. There, quoting the matter any sort of like white people, that lake segregation is the product of individual and institutional white choices in those choices were made because white people
and, if it from it like Wikipedia that, may the animal like they're well dug out of the entire like that was kind of the point. Is that like win wait, people were more or less force to interact with non white people. They shut down school districts and set a private schools in order to do and to avoid doing so. So I think that this is interesting really is paper. It is I'm. I gather that that makes that's what I think is interesting is kind of them, the a I find it fascinating that its did it for as much as sociology has been obsessed with lake, with the effects of segregation and the geography of strategy. In the? U S, an opportunity hoarding, and all that kind of thing it's it's weird, be existing impure. It like research on this has not been that this isn't like a very traditional mode of inquiry is also interesting that so much at the summit.
this relies on the question of how do you measure how segregated in areas because, on the one hand, there are arguments that the? U S is, you know substantially less segregated now than it was in. You know nineteen, seventy that were now it like me nineteen ten levels of racial segregation there's also On the other hand, the argument that if you look at him, is that, if you look at municipal polity, two minutes- already, I e like suburbs and exercise, and all of that jazz that we are in an era of macro segregation that has not really been dealt with before, and so what this particular finding means varies depending on which of those views you value, rightly, if you think that segregate that, like we ve already kind of, were way past the peak of residential segregation in the? U S, then this is kind of a historical finding riot like oh, when white people were really successful at keeping black people out of their areas. It was very
safe for them. But we're like at the tail aware, like just passed a twenty five year, the inner substantial reduction in the crime rate row even the least safe place, in America or a lot safer than they were in the early nineties, yadda yadda yadda silly in that context. Maybe this is a little. You know ill. A little safer of a finding to make because it you know it's not like there has been a massive spike in the crime rate, if you know as segregationist, Greece. But if you believe in the kind of macro segregation model, then that is you know, there's not a whole lot of argument to actively try to undo ear to move white people back into the cities from the suburbs. If you believe that that is part of what has kept the homicide rate, low wages,
the interested in the same because African Americans and many non white people that paper gets into how it talks about hispanic emigrants and others. But African Americans followed white people to the suburbs, because the suburbs where, where that nice schools and the houses were and now I white people, have moved back into the city is, and so a lot of, though he was entering supper
in areas like where we grew up in Cincinnati and a lot of other midwestern and southern cities are predominantly african American, and so it will be interesting to see in future data how that is viewed by the same you white families that move to the suburbs to get away from nine, what people, even if they didn't, think that that's what they were doing, who are now moving back to the city and the other thing that, I think, is that you know that in practice renders this a less politically inflammatory. Finding. Is that, frankly, the fact that the idea that cities are full of black people and unsafe has been very important to the white political imagination, for the last several decades, even one white people haven't been living in cities. Right like this is something we ve talked about on the Punkahs before Lake, even as people believe that their neighbourhood is generally pretty safe,
every single year while crime was going down, they believed that crime was that you, but I dont think the import of this is really about. Cities is about the suburbs. Wait it's about. We'll find in several of the candidates, democratic candidates, housing plans right and some of their education plans as well as these are linked issues. The idea that we need to break apart, exclusionary zoning patterns that prevent people from building either. You know market rate apartment buildings, or you know in the case of of burmese plan or was with mourns plan like dedicated low income housing in Athens suburban jurisdiction sway, and this is sort of the question right is like. Is there a harm to you,
you're favoured corridor all white suburb of letting you know an apartment, building that some low income latino an african american people live in, get up, maybe it's by your system and its station in the suburbs or an ally hours station for one island or wherever it is You know you see in Connecticut ride like this estate, with with life inequality and like big gaps between sort of fancy, suburban jurisdictions and end up much poorer sort of small scale, city swayed and so like is there like a real harm, in sharing the suburbs with less privileged people and like this paper is saying that, like yes, there is, and I think it would be interesting to see like if you, if you pencil it out right like in the in the aggregate social welfare function. It still seems to me that is actually very important to support like
de concentrating poverty and social dysfunction? And, like I really I mean I again, let people should do their research, they that I was joking before they should not suppress favourable findings but, like I am much more encouraged by the education version of this literature which, like people, have looked at and seems to suggest that, like there is not a big problem with integrating the classroom that there is a big upside down, disadvantaged people and no real downside and people should like let go of their fears. The crime version of this as long as the crime rate is falling, I think its fairly persuasive to say, like people, should try to relax a little bit more about this, but you know it's it's an inconvenient find I mean, I think, the other. What this doesn't do is demonstrate exactly what ve you know what I think. I think one of the big empirical questions,
that is maybe not answerable. Given the data that we have that that I think is going to be like if you were to be, you know that if you were white supremacist looking at best, I studied the thing you would ask is okay. So what about perpetrator, race, re lake? It is kind of us and, in the context of this paper, that everybody knows that within race, crime is much much much much much more common than between crime and that therefore we really need to establish like by the way when we talk about what people getting killed, we're talking about what people killing them. That is an assumption. I assume it would be borne out by the empirics but like they are not doing the leg. Work on that assuming that is true and everything we know about crime rates generally holds up in this case- were not actually talking about. If you let brown and black people into your neighborhood, they will kill, you were talking about, if you let brown and black people into your neighborhood changes will happen in the institutions of after neighborhood vit
make it more likely that white people in your neighborhood will kill other white people, and, if that's the case, then we don't necessarily need to assume that it is that it is inevitable that segregation is going to increase violence. there are like. Maybe you know. Maybe this is where we get back to the building cross racial coalitions, kind of thing, if you maybe don't assume that having blacken, our people in your neighborhood means that the police need to be spending all of their time. You know lake trying it like throw a throw in black and brown boys onto the sidewalk, just in case they had a can of spray paint. Like that kind of thing you know. Maybe there are actual.
the sea choices that lead to in it. As we were talking about the white paper last week, policy choices made by powerful actors that lead to things coming out that in retrospect might have looked inevitable, and so maybe, if you're being proactive about this in your actively trying to reduce aggregation, you're, also trying to ask yourself what are the circumstances in White people lose faith in political institutions because they are living in a more pluralistic. This situation, and where, like, for example like it inevitable that way we will be less supportive of the welfare state when we're immigrants moving. It's it's it's another side of the same question. Right right. Is this actually a story about about? You know criminal genetic effects in populations or is actually a story about how the kind of politically enfranchise people feel about political institutions
and which ones there willing to support and not willing to support with that, I think we should close it out. Here are things as always to our sponsors and to our producers to forget and the weeds more time on Friday, accessible, affordable broadband helps community Reach toward their american dream for students, lectures on a Chavez means rising above the poverty line and becoming valedictorian of international high school at Langley Park, and thanks to access from eighteen t, it can these dreams turn into reality. That's my eighteen to you making two billion dollar three year. Commitment to help close. Digital divide, more Americans have chance to succeed. To learn more is eighty two dot com, slash connecting communities.
Transcript generated on 2021-09-10.