Jane, Dara, and Matt on Trump’s refusal to quit and his “surprising” Hispanic support.
"How Democrats Missed Trump’s Appeal to Latino Voters" by Jennifer Medina
"Why Democrats Lost So Many South Texas Latinos—the Economy" by Elizabeth Findell, Wall Street Journal
Matt Yglesias (@mattyglesias), Senior Correspondent, Vox
Jane Coaston (@cjane87), Senior politics correspondent, Vox
Dara Lind (@DLind), Immigration reporter, ProPublicaCredits:
Jeff Geld, (@jeff_geld), Editor and Producer
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indigo AG com recode again. This is a very specific area, as Darya noted like
note, its hurried Darya. Why? How dare you noted, but yeah wow were already you're already forget it s now. I just great show that it's a great show
to another episode of the weeds on the box media podcast network. I met replace yes here with Jane coasted core public, as dare lend is a time of transitions. We just had an election, but also this tree
quickly is going to be our last episode with Jane, who has some some exe
news for the world which against interest, I will I will let you share as you as you launch the competition I am.
I am going to the New York Times. I will be hosting a podcast for the New York Times. Opinion section called the arguments which will sadly probably feature less Swedish administrative data but wealth.
Chair, more internal, Clara Zation. As far as I'm concerned internal plurality,
it is the law. Now,
and really interested to see. How these standards desk at the New York Times deals with this? This is going to be delightful. That's you now
we were? We all must face challenges in our own time, and my challenge will be taking internal globalization to the world. But yes, today is my last episode and about that I am extremely sad. I've said repeatedly that this has been the best job I've ever had, and this is the best five past that has ever existed, especially on the subjects of Swedish administrative Data
unless there's a guy secret swedish podcast there were about to get some very serious emails about, but no seriously, this has been an absolutely fantastic. Grads have been on with two of the best colleagues in the house
and I am very, very very, very, very sad to be leaving and excited for the future, but also sad, and I am sure that there is a german word for whatever. That is
Meanwhile, we will miss you. We already miss you in the neighborhood here
I'm going around, I ran into you and your sign an Jose talked about. We talked about civil war for a minute. It was agreed at least easy easy to spot hair. So I said Dorothy you riding by we, obviously don't don't
argue here on the weeds ever so it's a very different kind of past. We also have exciting weeds related news, which is that we are going to be launching an interview series on the Friday episodes called the next four years and is looking forward to the next four years.
Sites can be an eight episode, Rhine, others there. I think a Christmas interval and stuff in there, but it's going, can be a set of great stuff, I'm starting to get people lined up for it. So I think we will learn a lot
Bout, the future there I'm, but we wanted to talk a little bit about past the election that damage from has not quite kids
so dared was saying before the show. You are telling me that you have nothing to say about this, but I think that
you do, because back before you went to propaganda and became such a button down
Lest I think you had a lot of smart thoughts about like Trump as a persona and the implication,
of it, and I think in a lot of ways I mean we ve talked about Trump a lot for the past four years, but so much like what I have said for four years is like less pay attention to actual policy like less pay. Attention was actually happening, is let us just conservative governments happening, but this to me is like this is really some like some trump shit is gone down.
Now like he, he Republicans seemed a couple days ago, like they were
edging toward yeah, okay, we lost the election, and now he's really dragged them back to we're going to fight. This thing, yes,
to be clear when I say that I have thoughts on the election like this is the first of several
elections, nay, that I have been given
civilian essentially like I wasn't covering the campaign per se. I didn't have work related tasks during election
I was working on r r election lend project, so I was kind of chasing down tips on voter access throughout the day, with any kind of, I was in the same position that a lot of other people were in terms of twiddling their thumbs on election night, and the only thing I have to say about
Is that it's a terrible experience and I absolutely understand and a visceral way now how the experience of
seeing results from the states that report their results most quickly, unhelpfully shapes ones. Perception of
the election is going in a way that is,
will work hard to correct when more complete results come in, but you know I do think that met your right. The kind of the
whose election like what's going down now is assent. Is it is a great deal about the all consuming psychology of Donald Trump? And you know it is.
Very frustrating to have to continually talk about Trump as late this outsize personality. For all the reasons you ve mentioned mad that lake. It is obviously through at this point that we are low
what we are looking at right now, because Donald trumps Ego is
most important enervating force in the Republican Party, and I dont particularly now
aware that goes so far. I think I've been actually genuinely surprised that last week it related seem lake, not just republicanism,
but like the vast majority of Americans, were invested in in the election invested in the election results willing to take those results for granted like there wasn't kind of man
mobilization in the streets. There were, some
worrisome demonstrations outside like election offices, but not there wasn't kind of mass mobilization on the part of Republicans to kind of reject the results of the election, and if that continues then
That would be good for you, no society and for the livelier for the lives and livelihoods of the people who would otherwise be involved, but lake. I think
right now. That is, that the kind of inherent desire to
the system or maybe more cynically to lake not be so invested to get out in the streets is being worn down
actively worn down a little bed, and I don't really know where we go from here. So the thing about this that I just keep thinking about is that, right now what they trump campaign is doing through the ethics
missing that the campaign sent out like twenty emails yesterday? This is a
this is the monorail episode of the Simpsons. This is basically, if you look at the fine print of these emails, the money that is supposedly going to the election defence fund about sixty percent of it.
Is going to campaign debts and forty percent is going to the Republican National Committee
Any remaining money is going to the election defence Fund, which, if you look at what sixty percent and forty percent at up to, I have a series of questions, and so I think it will be by making the point that basis.
Wait, this is an effort to keep the base extremely mad until the to run off elections in Georgia, though, it's interesting technique for
two republican candidates in Georgia to be arguing that the republican Secretary of state should step down because there's election anomalies there aren't. But you also need people to trust enough in a system to vote in the elect,
that's going to be had in January, which is why I think it's it's. There have been numerous conservative commentators who have basically been like this is it this is grist, like all of the weirdo, extremely online conspiracy theories about watermarks or the involvement of some very
complicated conspiracy theories like all of this ends up with people showing up at the four seasons. Total landscaping with a guy who's been convicted of sex crimes, make up nonsense, and I think that that something with which its worth taking keeping in mind here is that this is clear. This is a base activation strategy and a moneymaking strategy strategy, and s been hilarious deceit.
But who have just one elections. I clumsy Grand said yesterday that Republicans when, because they have better ideas and Republicans lose because Democrats cheats- and I, like you just one Alex
like you're, going to go for a couple of years, but also like ie always need to be always be fund raising, and so I think that's the thing about this debts. More concern,
but less worrying, because I feel as if those are two separate emotions that this so much of this is the the scene and
fellows. Were you gonna burn down the restaurants, because you ve taken out as many lawns and you ve got done all of this other stuff and its timed? It is
and down a run away, and we regret its fascinating
everyone involved, the operating assumption
has been, and this isn't really articulate.
Kind of even on this podcast. But I think a lot of the operating assumption over the last four years has been that Republicans, who aren't Donald Trump, have more
harassment in the continued existence and success of the Republican Party after Donald Trump than he does, and so they are likely to be considering a set of incentives. That lake looks
as a slightly longer time horizon and that model would predict
that if you are engaging in act
pity that might one Lee
to a large part of your base, deciding that the electoral process is worth participating in because its rig or to result in the kind of
political violence that would create a backlash against your party that lake those might be costs that they would be considering.
Figuring out whether or not to continue engaging in this kind of behaviour and like the fact that that is not a calculus that appears to be happening.
We were very least that they are not as risk of
in that regard, as you would expect politicians to be indicate.
To me that what is going on here isn't just a kind of Lake Griffon, damn the consequences. It's also the can
he knew the function of Donald Trump Hole
on the minds of other Republican, the elites lake
We thought we were reminded a little bit of just how persuaded a lot of people are that Donald Trump is a unique political genius
on Tuesday night right when it seemed like for a hot minute everything that it was twenty
seen all over again and I think a lot of the kind of-
people who were watching those returns brooding for Trump to lose had a certain amount.
Not only is everything that we ve ever thought of the over the last six months incorrect, but this man, fruit
is able to just surpass all of our rational models? Once more route totals came in? I think liberal snapped out of that, but republic there. It does appear to be the belief both
within the Trump White House and among other Republicans, that, like Donald Trump, is a unique political genius who was tapped into who is guilty stronger connection with the base than any of the rest of them could ever hope to come
aim, and so they had better go along with what he says, because it's the only way to ensure their political survival, which is like it appears to be for one thing, empirically
belied by the election results in which many of them ran ahead of Donald Trump weight. So I think you know this true thing
from the election results that interact with that in a disturbing where rights, a one is that we see like Trump, really is less popular than the kind of generic GEO, p brain and it we saw it in twenty. Sixteen we sought again in in twenty twenty. It's obvious in the approval ratings and like it just common sense, you know like he, he does weird stuff that is politically harmful. At the same time, Republicans are operating with this huge geographic, unmanned rights,
like in a fifty fifty country in a different set of electoral wars, is it the country's evenly divided? The stakes are high you're sweating, all the details
you're like really worried like can we you know marginalized, is having to distance ourselves, but instead you have the opposite right that it's like there's, this very Intrench sent a majority.
The electorate of me and is very very forgiving of Susan Collins and
body else can sort of Bee Bee fast.
Most lodging like. You talked about house goofy. It was that Linsey Grand
you know claims the election was stolen, re everyone reelection have done the same ballots like the entire impetus. Here is just it's so ridiculous, but it's a sort of the opposite. Rightly Lindsey grim. Faced a tough. It was a tough challenge from Dreamy Harrison. In this sense. The Jimmy Harrison is a charismatic guy and a good politician, and he had a ton of money. It was a very vigorous campaign, but would it turned out at the end of the day,
I was not just a grand why but clear flushed right, because South Carolina is way more conservative than the average American, but the way the Sunday Map works, the average Senate see it just way to the right of the american Centre, so it makes perfect sense for Mitch Mcconnell to both sort of indulged from, but also
like Miss Connell cares a lot about the Republican Party and he cares a lot about winning, and so he like successful.
Maneuvered the Amy Conny Barrett situation since it like you know,
but the screws on Susan Collins to vote for Breath Cavanaugh because he needed, but this is a concept vote, but then, at the last minute he didn't need her vote for bear it. She voted no from what I've heard from pollsters. Her approval rating in Maine went up sore
and now he retains power. Do those means, but now it's like what is he care if the fiftieth percentage vote, or even fifty first? Fifty second thinks Trump is being crazy. Right leg is correct to ride the tiger. In this way he doesn't face any trade off between doing what most people want and winning elections the trade off he faces is just like. He needs to to manage things, and it's very unhealthy, an engineer I and I think it should make us worry, but because I I don't think, there's gonna be like a trucker, a general strike.
Or anything like that, but the last time this birth, ur stuff. You know the idea. The Brok Obama was illegitimate for reasons that didn't make any sense and a lot of republican leaders were like while who knows gotta gotta, it's like then Donald Trump becomes precedent. I think that's. The thing is just introducing this level of instrumental eyes: conspiracy, theorizing, recognising that, yes, you are doing this as part of basic
basin and a massive grist, but you are also doing so in a manner that does not benefit the country writ large and we know where they. What that resulted in what
first tourism and now I dont know where that goes here. Yeah, even- and I think that outside of these,
long term health of american institutions contacts like this brings me back to Georgia right, because the state of Georgia is already like they're running to run off election simultaneously, at the same time that they are dealing with an automatic recount situation
the presidential election at the same time that there is going to be litigation over? You know like whichever of the good Gillian from suits actually and Eu Law
for more than a couple of days. That's a lot of stress on an election system just logistically speaking like I definitely. There are definitely concerns that the Georgia Secretary of States Office is not necessarily
equipped to hand all of this stuff at once, and then, when you consider that, when you add the fact that the Georgia Secretary of State is under attack from the States Republican, send delegation
or apparently not having done it right for unspecified reasons. Last time round. That has real implications for like how much that the Secretary of State Office may be able to get buying in from state republicans how well they're going to be able to work with Republican dominated counties late. There are real concerns about how you run a January for the election and then
The the kind of added question that you were alluding to earlier Jane of, is it really going to turn out republican voters for Republicans to be saying, the election was rigged, your votes don't count.
While Georgia Democrats have every right
to be fired up, because the argument that these Stacy
Abrams of the world have been making for a decade that, if you increase the base of registered voters enough, you will be able to expand the map in ways the Democrats haven't thought about like they have. Every index
given that that is finally turning in their favour in every reason to turn out. So there are both kind of political questions here, but also its just eat is going to be very interesting to see after an election day that was actually
really non dramatic. Compared to what I think a lot of, I think there were a lot of expectations that you would see more obvious confrontation that you would see bigger problems with voter access longer lines that kind of thing, partly because of the widespread use of by mail. The pressure was taken off it up like one executive in count
You said they were set up for in a twenty times more people than they actually got something ridiculous like that, but after an election David, that was
fairly humdrum in terms of dubious election go successfully, you know, did it go smoothly. I really do think it's going to be interesting.
See what happens in January, and that's going to be a good test of whether the stuff that's been thrown out there
for the last several days is going to have a real and lasting impact or whether it's just going to be late for the walls and for the cash putting a brake and- and I want to talk about what we actually saw in the election results
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calm, slash, weeds and joined the over one million people who have taken charge of their mental health with the help of an experienced better help. Professional support for this episode comes from America's leading beverage companies who are working together to reduce plastic waste in our environment. Not all plastic is the same. America's beverage companies are carefully designing. One hundred percent recyclable plastic bottles, including the cap's their bottles, are made to be remained and their investing in community recycling programmes to help get more bottles back, so they can be turned into materials used to make new bottles that completes the circle and reduces plastic waste. Please help get every bottle back, learn more at every bottle, back dot org. So yesterday I was reading the New York Times as wonder as even even pre Jane, and I saw there was an article in thereby Jennifer Medina, I'm whose really good, whose written a lot of good articles about the let you know, vote an end
skeins there are, but they gave her the headline like how did Democrats Miss trumps gains with Hispanics, and it was weird because, like she herself had written a number of articles about this- and I know Democrats and Democrats read the New York Times, and hopefully some Democrats also listen to the weeds out when we had Veronica Escobar I'm. She talked very specifically about terms
AIDS with his banning voters in the Rio Grande Valley. Just now he did. This was, in fact, not like an unknown phenomenon
but I do think it was- is a phenomenon that people who did not have a specific professional interest like run against. The bar is a hispanic member of Congress from Texas. So she takes a strong Europe.
No interest in this question. I think a lot of Normie Democrats who casually consumed the news and progressive takes were not aware that this was happening because it cuts against. I think a lot of just sort of
brush narratives about what's going on in the universe and like that's the actual surprise here, it's not that like it wasn't it let you wishes in the pole sweaty way, there was surprising stuff that happened on election day, but this was actually not surprising
You ve been watching the data listening to the people. Organizing in these areas are all this kind of stuff, but there was a, I think, profound reluctance to pay attention to it. Like our episode on this subject was not a blockbuster
I worked to articles about this and they didn't go virus like people didn't wanna hear that Trump is able to gain the support of a lead to over state.
But like a non trivial minority of black and let you know, voters seemed to decide that they liked what Trump was selling after four years in office, and I think a lot of white liberals detached from the situation just like didn't want to hear that until it came slap in the face.
This is a mean. I'm gonna try not to go on a rant defending the media, but it really. It was really striking to me to have. We tried to tell how this like to have the kind of discourse of it is unfolding at the exact same time that there was the discourse over how long it would take
to get a reliable result in the presidential election, when that too was something that had been an entire contents stream with like actually a really impressive performance by
major political media outlets too, to proactively inform people- we
are not going to know the results of the presidential election on Tuesday night, and it very much is frustrating to hear people essentially say. Why didn't you force me to learn
Why didn't you? Why didn't you go out of your way to explain to you like to tell me that this was the most important thing? It's just you know I just. I would love to make sure that everyone listening
podcast whether or not you are in the political or media professions is like coming at stuff like this, with a sense of curiosity right, not. Why was
I informed that this would be more important or that this would happen. But what is there are there that I can learn about this to kind of contextual eyes? This dear point that I have just learned in my surprise, because you know as you're saying that look there. What do you know the it's? Not that surprising, that Cubans are reliable republican voters in South Florida. There were surprises there regarding, like the strength of cuban support for Donald Trump,
Twenty twenty versus twenty sixteen- and I don't think we fully understand that, and that's kind of that, something that I have seen. I saw some conflicting reporting on how that was going to go before the election, but the Rio Grande Valley is a really good example of a population that has been under mobilized politically and under covered in national media and that's both kind of an
Sir, to the question of why a lot of people are now surprised by it and have so much trouble, not here
entire narratives of the latino vote on
now Florida and the Rio Grande Valley, which are too incredibly different places while not paying attend
into the S going on in Arizona which is a different population from either but closer to. The people
in their dv than it is today, the folks in South Florida, just demographically speaking by its also, to a certain extent. I think one of the explanations for how this happened to begin with right, because if you think of the aren't you ve not as a latino vote, but has a population of people who have been given generations of evidence that politics doesn't work for them. It starts looking ahead:
or similar to other populations of people who went strongly for Donald Trump yeah. It's interesting. There is a. There are some good reporting the Wall Street Journal that will put in shown it said, also talked about how one of our biggest challenges as we do. What we do is what people think President's are responsible for
or how they impact the economy or gas prices or any of the major facets. If we think about Donald Trump in a very different sensibility than someone who doesn't need to think about Donald Trump Everyday does, and so there are some really interesting reporting from the Rio Grande Valley that talked about how much stimulus checks mattered, and I echo I've been having this back.
Forth, with Sagar on Jetty who's at the hill. Talking about how if Trump could have won, had that most recent round of stimulus funding gone through and had trump not given up on Twitter because
He was listening to Stephen, more, never listened to Stephen, more, that's that's the lesson we have all worked, but like the idea
yeah you when they talk to some latina voters again. This is a very specific area, as Darya noted, like a star, noted, sorry Darya. What does happen
I heard that is as Jerry. You noted, but yeah wow. Let me go without forgetting us now. I just started
great. I thought about it a great show. Ah, but as Dar you noted that these are different communities. I think that the we ve seen
lot of very early prognosticated about, like what weakness meant, and I can't wait to find out from very people very specifically,
My black women are more according quote, woke than black man, but that's an aside. You saw reporting talking about like the voting.
Stimulus checks really mattered, and we talked a lot about it on your on different social media platforms and how gas prices went down and how these very concrete financial results showed up in resulting in more people voting for Trump and that's why, on yeah, there's been some talk about like oh by needs to go for the deficit and then you'll hear from land Democrats are absolutely not no leg. Now is the time to start cancelling student loans are doing something
that, because, when people see manifestly a thing happened that they alike and the name attached to it is the person in the White House. They tend to associate those two things. Okay, so here is my stupid question. About is lake. How does this square with Trump running behind centre republicans? Vat is an excellent question,
so I did some research. Couple weeks ago by research I mean I watched a big ten football via Hulu, which means I could see commercials that were not connected to the Washington DC area. You, I was doing it for research, very import,
so I found a fascinating, because if you were watching, I was rushing Michigan Michigan State Game, and if you were watching that game, I have one never seen so many camping commercials in my life, but also
So many of the republican commercials, especially in the Senate race in Michigan. At no point did anyone mention Trump at all and I'd be very curious to see
and that's something that we saw. Starting in June, there are some interesting apart from the daily beast talking about how republican candidates are largely drop trump from their advertising. It's gonna looked a little different in Georgia, because I think that that was a race in which Kelly, less learn, D Collins were fighting about, who loves truck more and who is the Trump ear of the two trompe from peace by. I think that what you saw interesting Lee was a degree of willingness to act as a republic and not as a Trump Republican and again
we don't- we were working from incomplete data, so I think that it will be interesting to see over that have a month's anti years, as we get more information that we will see how they did. But you
you're seeing results in which republican candidates in metropolitan areas did not lose as much as trumpeted, and so you see this consistently, where I think part of that was
from Michigan to Illinois to other areas, was a willingness to on tether themselves, at least in an word, if not indeed from Trump. While attempting to attach Democrats,
you are purportedly unpopular in their areas, policies, and I think that that actually gets me something to something that I think it's interesting or focusing on, because again, with a lot of incomplete data. A lot of the messaging that we have seen over the last couple of days spent about, like all these democratic policies, were too far last in people to like them. I think that that is it's a lot more complicated than that, because we saw Trump one in states that also Florida passed a fifteen dollar minimum wage, numerous down ballot, dsl candidates, one and a lot of states is I've gotten like seventeen thousand emails about. I know man you're looking dubious, but I'm just saying that this is not to say that, like a purportedly leftwing message will
when it just means that voters once again are extremely complicated there. It's like they have heterogeneous views. They are absolutely willing to decriminalize marijuana and legalised medical marijuana and then to criminalize as they didn't in Oregon decriminalize cocaine, while also thinking like I dont like this particular candidate. But I do like this particular idea. So I just want to make a point about that. The complexity of voters, because that obviously- and so you look back on the election results and I've heard from a lot of people there like well, of course, let you know communities, not a monolith, done it better and, like that's all obviously true right, just like. If somebody asked me a question about the politics of Mexico, and I was
I don't know goddamn thing about Mexico, but I can tell you that there are political cleavage is based on religious observance and urban rural divides and people's position in the class structure. Just because that's how politics works in all countries, that's how it always works. So then. Yes, mexican Americans also exhibit the basic behave
of human beings, fright or urban divides, divides about religiosity divides about gender norms, different positions in the class structured like gas. So like it's not surprising, what am called that there's a heterogeneous behaviour
or that, like people's voting behaviour, is impacted by how they think the government is helping them financially. Like us super duper normal, but I think that a lot of people on the progressive side spent years spinning a kind of broad brush narrative that that they were the ones who sort of abuse cured that trump. Clearly, one thing that Trump did
was activate a lot of racial animosity in the United States. He said a lot of things: he did it
The things people had a lot of strong feelings about them. A lot of people with racist sentiments seem to have gravitated to him and then
out of people on the left to put forward a narrative as if that was the only thing that was happening in in politics, and it's just not write like we know, like we ve always known, like cuban Americans, have their own relationship to the American Party system.
And specific foreign policy concerns. A lot of venezuelan seem to have been integrated too, that the just like different stuff happening in Texas in Arizona people of different priority.
Yes, I mean, I remember one black guy said Jimmy is like the white people think this is the first time we ve had a racist and office right like this is like more going on in people's political behaviour than you. I Emily
in retrospect. It's like super clear and among so what we need is a long way. You surprised, but like people were in fact surprised, and they were surprised because there were a lot of that sort of simplistic takes on transfer of politics. I think that's there and I think that, because the salient
Of lake someone's ethnic identity, or even like how they identity
why is contingent on how their being treated out, which is something we can
to a little more later in the episode like, I do think you know it was an open empirical question, whether Cubans and South Florida, especially like second generation cuban
Americans would start identifying as latino in this lake. You know us
made it into the american race restructure sense, and I think that there are kind of long term questions here that are that are going to play out. But I think that yes, this election was was suggestive, evidence that that has not happened or that lake to the EC
then that you know that that perhaps in an extremely heavily latino area like the Rio,
And valley that races, maybe
a salient in the same way that races less alien and overwhelmingly white states. Yes, so you know
There are open empirical questions here, but I kind of also want a hammer on the incompleteness of data because and Matt. I know this is something you've
On Twitter, like this year's exit, pole is less helpful than most exit polls. There is a really good question about wide Republican turn out
was higher than expected in many regards. That is not the same as being surprised that
now on election day was heavily republican and that's what the exit polls going to reflect so like. I think that in general, it's going to be more helpful to look at who are the kinds of people who showed up on election day and what does that tell us about
republican you know, are they show or for Donald Trump or are they showing up for or republican ideas or whatever, then, what look at? What did the pollution upon election? They believe? Yes, let's take a break in and talk about, a white paper.
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for today is from he is Emily, necks and Nancy can, and it is called shoes
racial identity in the United States, eighteen, eighty two, nineteen forty and this so paper about the idea of passing, which is.
The phenomenon of african american people in this case, studied between in about a sixty year period using census. Data passing for white
This is pretty common and it actually, the paper gets into just how com it was on. The paper found that over three hundred thousand blackmail
passed for white between one thousand eight hundred and eighty and one thousand nine hundred and forty, which is roughly about sixteen percent percent, is interval on average and so about thirty percent, then reverse past in the next census, as in being black in the next census, and it's also interesting to be using senses
that, because this isn't have anything to do with tax information, it doesn't have anything the census. Data is based on how you report yourself and the importance of this and how the story. I think that this paper told of black men. They they focused on black men, because
In general, women might have changed their names when they got merits that be harder to track at black men.
Unmarried or a few children who essentially for reasons made pretty obvious throughout the paper of DE at the height of Jim Crow. When this agitation isn't mixed, marriage was illegal as where better opportunities only opportunities were available for white people. People passed for white incenses data, so, yes, I just took a little bit about about methodology.
Right. So what what they're doing is? What's pod linked senses, tat right, so that we do a census every ten years. It is often frustrates liberals that they do
actual enumeration rather than the statistical sample, but the actual enumeration is useful.
Case because they literally right now. This is your name
This is your address. This is when you were born
that right down some stuff about you, so you can then look at old census, record's and say: ok, here's to different people who have the same name and they have the same
right, so we have a reasonable degree of certainty that they are the same person and you can't do it for women, because women change their names. I obviously men do change them
some women don't, but you will get a very biased sample. If, if you at women, women men, you could be.
Reasonably confident that you have the same person and then they show a few different things to check the robustness here because you might say well he's got some has written down in the senses white that doesn't mean passing in society. So they take advantage of the fact that during this time period, japanese, chinese and Korean were considered to be races. So you would expect that if the census takers we're just confused, you see a lot of japanese to chinese passing and vice versa. But you don't write you. You see some asian to white passing in this data, not as much as black to white passing, almost no white to black, passing and very little like Japanese to chinese pet,
right or vice versa, would strongly suggest that is based on the person answering the survey telling you something the also find rights it is this like a well known finding from driven Logan and add somebody who's first time. I forget, because last it was parliament that historic
A certain names are distinctively african American. I mean we know this in the present day, but they showed that it was true in the past
as well, and they show that men with those distinctively blackened aims are less likely to be worth less likely to show up with their re swapped in later senses spread. If you had a distinctive, we black name either you couldn't pass or you had it,
change. Your knee basically is is the fighting there, and so those two things are like pretty good robustness checks. I think that they are in fact measuring passing here, they're looking at black people,
with presumably fair skin white, acceptable names and they
are representing themselves to senses, takers as being white, and they are being believed
and this is something of course, we've always we've known forever- that this happened, but by definition like it's hard to count, because people were not advertising themselves as passing, and this shows that it's, it's really quite calm in this data, like hundreds of thousands of people
I kind of wanted tweak something that we ve been representing a kind of the story of how this data was generated, because it's not clear at all that this is based on self
ported race to the enumerate or, like the guidance given to enumerate hers was sketchy enough that there is a belief that this is just kind of imputed by the late by the person going around taking the census in that they would
essentially look at how someone was living and impute their race from their which kind of means that you can. You can look at that as a potential source
the political numerator error, or you could look at that and go yes. That is in fact, how race functions
american society on a day by day basis in the era of Jim Crow. Like this wasn't a you know, you had to have in now this
The two like papers, please, regime, where you had to have evidence that you were the race you are representing yourself as at all times, it was be. It's kind of based on this lake got check, do quoting put look black. Are you dressed in such a way that
just that your black! Are you living in the black part of town? That kind of thing and write the idea of association gets in the paper that race, by associate there's a quote from a previous paper of two thousand and nine in this paper, in other words, raced by association Trump to any other physical or documentary documentary evidence and the idea that she must be white, because we think she
way, or she must be black, because we should rethink she's black rightly. This is, if its fascinating, that and- and this of course happens because in the american context, your simultaneously pretending that raises the self
Evidently, natural category while creating it
making like guesses like these. So what's very interesting to me in this context, is the kind of phenomenon of like putting put reverse passing perverse passing him in this
and so you were acquitted is black and one set census, whitened access and unblock again and in the third. I would lie
the seem more more digging into that popular,
and figuring out how those amputations were made, because because it wasn't somebody saying yes, I'm black. Yes, I'm white, yes, I'm black,
Rather the imputation made based on how they were living in three separate peer snapshots in time. It would be very interesting to see whether there are commonalities among that population of of like whether its
case out there just on the boundary of whiteness and blackness, and so it depends on which do you send out there on a given day or whether this is a case of people deciding that it wasn't worth
being away from their family, to pass for way and coming back home and thus being in a household with people who couldn't go, looked blacker, yeah. It really is interesting, because this is an effort to attempt to use math
determine something that it was entirely not math or science based on the one drop rule was not based on any literal understanding of african American to certain. There is actually one of the really interesting throw away pieces of this.
Is that I'm just detailing how individuals today, who identifies african american art generally twenty four percent european and about a significant proportion of individuals who suffer porters. European American three point: five percent have at least one percent african American
set, which means that, like, if you use the one drop rule today, a lot of people would technically bs.
American- and it is so interesting and the it gets into this- and I won't repeated, but the attempted
pasting, on of science or the legal definition of blackness onto racial science, which was not as a suit, which was a sewer. Science is so interesting because, throughout this paper you see an anecdotal evidence in the footnotes of people who are you
being told that you are going to be we're going to send you away in your white now and you can't come back, and this is what you this is what you're going to do in your life will be so much better because of it. I found this paper to be for me personally, the deeply emotional unexpectedly emotional, just thinking about that. The family is because you do get asked our mentioned. You do have some of the people who clearly identified as white in one sense is an identified as black
senses, but there were people and our stories of Russia with frequently there people who genuinely were raised to believe that they were white and went on to marry a what
person and then only later in life, did they ever find out that they were not in fact white, because it turns out that that's not like it. There isn't some sort of huge tell because races confusing, but also that this gets into. I think a lot of our ideas about race even to day tree race as a monolithic, scientific entity. One it's not really clear, there isn't it. You know there is an example of a family mentioned here and which a family move neighbour
the repeatedly from white to black to wait again, this outbreak, the back and forth, I that the family lines that were broken and the chap it how difficult this would be. A just really got him in so years ago, at advice, Janine Desmond hers wrote an article about em, a twenty three me genetic study or Europe study of their their population. Somebody, not a representative sample of the United States, about what they found is a people with less than twenty. Eight per cent by african courting quote dna background in the United States typically identified as way which, as you know, a highest number right and I think often represents sort of lost family history, rather than
You know present day like millennial aged people with one black grandparent, I'm so much as just cause, because they also show like its cortical white people living in the south have much more black ancestry. So you know I mean you: can you can see how that that comes to arise as to its it's probably like distant past kind of stuff that people legitimately don't know about because part of passing is like not telling your kids what's Goin on Africa's kids are not that it keeping secrets another thing I'll be innocency right. These steady eighteen! Eighty to ninety forty are the nineteen fifty census. Does it seventy two year rule for four census data, so the nineteen fifty cents,
we'll, be out digitally with all these records in April twenty twenty two and that should be a particularly interesting one, because the nineteen forty two nineteen fifty era spans war war to which in the sort of anecdotes of literature, was the biggest passing a vent. Because you had, you know: people leave their homes, they sign up. The military wanted people to military was segregated, but took both black and white people, and then you know lots of people just didn't go back to where they were
after years of war was not incredibly unusual, as you have the like: mad men version of that front from the cream war, but you might. My grandfather grew up in Florida
said, Jim Crow state. At the time he was cuban American, which was
you know illegally are now on the right side of the tracks,
but socially, not always and
According to him, a not small number of black people signed up in the white, you know
just drawers around there. There were lots, beep beep route. Precisely because there were lots of Cuban
people I might have Sicilians, unlike you know, like lots of ways in the temperate area at that time, that you could
get on the white side of the line. The problem was people didn't want hard break
with their family and their lives in their community, but when you're going off to war like that set at chance disorder do that and you
seeing seeing the numbers there, I think. Well, I don't be even more interesting than what we have now given. I think that's. The other thing about world were too, of course, is that it
was also at least like anecdotally and historically, have come to understand it as a moment of increased racial consciousness for many black men, in which you know that double the double victory campaign.
Making the fight for civil rights at home a lot more prominent, be undermined
ending of the way that they were treated in O in Europe in particular verses. When they came back home it would be. It would be interesting to see kind of how those two pressures
of themselves, among the population where some of them might have told the recruiter that they were way and
and realized by the time they came back from war that actually the way that you know that that there really were important differences in the way that black men were being treated in the way that they could be treated. What a time I really, I think, the lasting us as at this is
one of the most interesting papers ethic that I've read in a long time, especially because it really gets to something that we ve talked about before us,
and talking about mulatto individuals, of which I technically Emmeline, and just how do you like how racial categorization it at this end flows through out time and seeing how
these categories, where blended and not blended it. It's really interesting to see how that looks even
in an area that is not our own yeah, and with that said, it's I'm. I'm really sad that this this is the end
of genes ran here on the show, looking forward to hearing the argument and who will argue there and what will they argue about, but no white papers allowed, no administrative never got no. We got
I see swedish administrative data. I will salutes and look elsewhere. They sell it to us, you don't you start. You still got my number. You know we ve got patents on all that stuff, it's very its red locked down, looking forward to add that the next four years-
starting on Friday. I wouldn't have Carl Smith from Bloomberg and add the tax foundation talking about
the macro economy and the prospects of legislative deal, making he enough Republicans and stuff so, and so I would like to talk to Carl and out without, as so thank you Jane for so many wonderful episodes over the years, thanks as always to sponsor
producer, Jeffrey Gout and weeds, we'll be back. I'm frightened.
Transcript generated on 2021-05-14.