« The Weeds

The stimulus standoff

2020-08-04

Jane, Dara, and Matt on the congressional deadlock over economic aid.

Resources:

"“The jobs aren’t there”: Why cutting off enhanced unemployment benefits would leave workers in the lurch" by Li Zhou, Vox

"Senate GOP Coronavirus Bill Has Some Good Provisions but Needs Serious Work" by Adam Michel, Rachel Greszler, Lindsey M. Burke, & Brian Finch, Heritage Foundation

"The Zombie Reaganism Trap" by Peter Spiliakos, National Review

White paper

Hosts:

Matt Yglesias (@mattyglesias), Senior Correspondent, Vox

Jane Coaston (@cjane87), Senior politics correspondent, Vox

Dara Lind (@DLind), Immigration reporter, ProPublica

Credits:

Jeff Geld, (@jeff_geld), Editor and Producer

The Weeds is a Vox Media Podcast Network production

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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Lend at we're gonna have a conversation about the economic crisis, engulfing America, the gridlock, in Congress, some some relevant white paper, energy, etc. First, I did want to say at the top of the show that I have written a book. The book is key, one billion Americans the case for thinking bigger it is about how there more Americans, more babies or immigrants more houses for them to live in clean energy for us to have our lights, with I know you have a lot of questions. Is it going to work Matt by the book, in particular. What I really want you to do is to pre ordered the book, because there's a lot of reasons. Promoting is good, but by the simple explain or on it is that pre orders all count as
one sales for the purposes of compiling best seller list. So if I can get people, it doesn't actually take that many books to be a best seller like a few thousand like a fraction of weeds audience can get you there. If you guys pre order in August, then, if you show up on the list like that, everybody pays attention even the haters need to talk about you and why your terrible, which is all good you just drive the cycle of attention, positivity so pre order the book email, a proof of purchase to one billion Americans at Penguin, Random House com, and you will get some swag coming your way and also, if you want to tweet your proof of purchase, at me: I'm gonna do a random drawing and I've been abused, my prerogative as host of the show to lead of you select. Our white paper of the week on clearing of my book. I want to say the world I wanna, get denounced by Tucker Karlsson. The things that can only really happen with your cooperation, so that
everybody will sell more books if Americans are not totally broke and Congress should prompt, We do something about it, because that was fantastic. Pivot met. That was great. That was very lonely, other hand lake having just found out that we are going to have in our future re randomly selected white paper, because that has evoked out. I now understand a little bit more just how it can be the case that lake the two sides of, congressional negotiations are still so far apart from each other. And yet everyone is so confident that something can happen. Because, apparently this is and I was not consulting nor was I informed well when you guys write books, which I am sure will be coming soon. Whatever goofball promo schemes you come up with, I will play along with that
dear we're just gonna, have an entire episode on they in ins and outs of why George Mckenna was terrible or the battle of Stalingrad, but we're getting ass back to what we are actually talking about, because I think it's a fascinating discussion because it actually has become so much of congressional politics is theirs, what's actually happening on the hill among people and then there's the posturing that happens to us. There is performance of politics that is happening to us and what's happening here. Is that the performance of politics getting in the way of politics, which is why you have among Republicans, you have a split between the Republicans relic like Marco, be a who, tweeted out on July, twenty nine that a trillion dollars. That is bad, but it would be worse if we didn't do anything and we have to help people
or you have Ben Sassin and Rand. Paul saying that Stephen Minuchin is a big government Democrat and that Democrats and Trumpery are trying to outspend each other and the the White House is trying to solve bad pulling by agreeing to indefensible bad debt, or you have Rand Paul saying that he feels like it came out of a Bernie Bro Caucus meeting because Republicans are proposing new spending, which is Rand, calls that kind of checks out for him, but this is an example of how, on this particular issue, a lot of politics is about posturing occasionally, you actually do have to do something and so the White House I said repeatedly is that they want to make the price tag for the a phased forced, emulous smaller and essentially make it so that fewer people get actual money because they ve heard from
that heritage and elsewhere that giving people money is bad, but Trump has repeatedly said that he wants to give people money, though what that actually means no one knows, and the people who want money need money. So this has become a moment at which the posturing and politics are at odds with one another. This is helpful because I admit that this is one of those things were like as someone who does not for a living. Follow the day to day in common what is going on. I have found myself entirely lost with just kind of the basic question of what various entities are trying to solve in it. It seems that he's kind of a standard problem in Congress, where the divide isn't between people, who want to solve the problem one way and people who want to solve the problem. Another way the divide between people who think that act, It is necessary and
people, who think worry that action is going to be worse than in action. In terms of lake, the cure worse than the disease kind of thing. Is that a correct way to describe it with the kind of Rand Paul? You note Steve Newton split here that that seems to me to be what's happening here, because I think that there has been a lot of it. It's interesting because you have a lot of people who all our quota
on the conservative side of this debate, but none of them get along and all of them are mad at each other. And so you have the Stevens more of the world saying. What we need is a payroll taxes and he is actually talking about taking and ground around Congress to get another Perrault Ex cut, because Lord knows he loves apparel talks, taxicab and I've. I've talked to more about this issue and his view has not changed, and so and it's interesting because I asked him if you passed hypothetically a trillion dollars need to states and cities. That would be probably good for the Republican Party to be able to say we did this. We did this thing. You're we stood up for the working people. We stood up in your any you. We enacted a policy that was truly populist of the vocs popular I and I asked him you wouldn't that help the GNP and his basic view is that no, it wouldn't because increase
in debt wouldn't help. The republican Party is political interests, and so this is a back and forth its actually been happening for a long time. I've talked a lot on the show about the breakdown in fusion is and with them the Republican Party, but also there's the growth of an economic populism that believes that quota, unquote, Z, Be organism is a real problem that you can't at a certain point, especially for Americans you'll be tax, cuts that benefit high end earners aren't really benefiting the people who are proportionately
voting for the Republican Party right now and even from our YO a language perspective and pulling it's not very effective in general, getting republicans what they want, which is greater popularity and greater sway for their economic viewpoints ends. But if you listen to club for growth or listen, listened Heritage Heritage Foundation, both of which are powerful voices in the party both party, both state and federal level. There saying, like we gotta, cut these taxes. We have to curtail unemployment benefits because unemployment, often when their view, pays more than people having actual jobs and
oh yeah, it helps it for keeps people home from work when they should be returning to work which has its own set of problems because it essentially you if you're in a central worker, you are at greater risk of contracting corona virus. The very thing that we are trying to avoid purportedly and so asking people you'd telling state governments to curtail our employment benefits to force people back into work places where they could contract the pandemic. That was why they were at home in the first place seems a little problematic summit, but this does the back and afford this. Another example of how corona virus has meshed onto existing divides and challenges and inequalities that are already happening in our politics and made. All of them were so alluded to some beaver egotism, and I think really to understand what's going on today- and So if you want to and like a weeds your way,
actually useful go all the way back to the economic crisis, the the seventy eights, so in the seventies, at the beginning of the seventies way, you had Richard Nixon saying we're all Keynesians now right, the great depression was over forward. Who had happened. We weren't a new era when we certainly had party competition and Nixon George Mcgovern disagreed about a lot of things, but there was a concern says that demand side management could keep recessions brief and painless avoid depressions, and that was a cent. Republican said repudiated the doctrines of Herbert Hoover accepted the macro economic philosophy Franklin, Roosevelt and we're now disagreeing with Democrats about the Vietnam WAR about the traditional fan, Lee like all kinds of things, but not active demand management in the
and there was always controversial right- there was conservative criticism of Nixon. I think it was William F. Buckley had a joke that, like I never like Nixon until watered You know the idea being that he was he was to moderate, but he kind of on lives. There You know and then Gerald Ford became president. He was very much from the moderate school of Republicans. He was beaten by Jimmy Carter and it was like a big. You know, big economic problems. During the current administration, unemployment was stubbornly high. The inflation It was also high and conservative, said this Keynes stuff. This is What we need is a supply side revolution and that's it. To just be associated with people who like to say that tax cuts pay for themselves, but there was a bigger philosophy. The right knee was look to actually fix.
The economy to bring inflation down and unemployment down. We need to cut regulations, we need to cut taxes, we need to make it spent in capital goods worthwhile and that It's gonna to the economy, so Reagan wines with that message, he does some of that stuff. The economy does get better right. And there's been a sort of disagreement ever since then of like D the Reagan, supply side, revolution fix the economy or I'm gonna say more plausibly. Did oil prices just go down because the geopolitical situation changed, but conservatives very much believe that Ronald Reagan, supply sign revolution fix the count. And what you see on the more intransigent side of the Republican Party is a belief.
that not only did Reagan his work in the in the early nineties, navies, but that region is, is a doctrine for all times, in all circumstances, so cutting. Regulations are cutting taxes, always good like it was right thing to do in January the worst things get the more Dyer crisis becomes. That only shows how much we need to cut taxes and cut regulation, and so the payroll tax thing is not. I mean tromp is enthusiastic about, but it's it's something that is acceptable more. He knows that the Obama administration did apparel tax cuts as part of the stimulus, but he doesn't believe and stimulus. He believes in supply side reform, but a pebble tax cut is a kind of supply. Side, reform and supply centres are against all spending
and social welfare programmes. The whole idea of demand management, but unemployment insurance is particularly irksome to them because its just wasteful spending, which is bad, but it is, typically spending. That makes it easier for people to get by without a job and their role philosophies. It should be the opposite that you, that, if you do anything, it should be less taxes for people who are working and who are investing. But if you spend money on something and its liberals and to get in this mindset, but like conservatives like the military, and that's gonna. One reason that they don't mind defence spending as much, but the other thing is, if you think, in supply side terms right buying lots of tanks. Precisely because it doesn't help people in the way the progressives want to help people doesn't discourage any body from work, it's just a market opportunity for it
steel company is then the makers of whatever those fuckin giant tanker. I mean I don't know what goes into attack, but that kind of spending is acceptable from the supply side viewpoint, whereas, like hopefully, spending right like you checks to everybody. Give money to the unemployed, give money to the poor. The kind of things progressives like that's, really bad from a supply side view and now there is war is Jane, said in the conservative camp. Were I don't think anyone is repudiating like historical revisionism, but with what the more populous people Saying is that well that was a doctrine for its time, and this is not that we are not afflicted by the specific problem. Of the nineteen. Seventy is, and we should be more open to other things and work Rubio is definitely in that camp like he and Orange cast. I've been a little bit inchoate, I think, enter
like what are they actually saying about the economy? But there are clear, We saying like we have a different set of problems today and from right like what up what that, really effective president would be doing at this time is like king aside, in an Inter party debate and trying to members of Congress. Don't actually have opinions about. This kind of thing just get steered by leaders, but himself is like on both sides of the divide, all the time, because he's a little I don't have. You guys- saw the John Jonathan Swan Interview, which was not about this, but it is a really confirms that presently from is totally out to lunch leg, I keep going. What's going on, and this stuff is like, so much more like tedious. Unlike wonky than this,
so I was asking about which is just like a literally like, are the numbers going up or down and like he is idea. So he can, he can manage the coalition Emily. Colonel he's, just like desperately trying to get something together, that republican senators will vote for, So he's got a trillion dollars which is like way less economists who believe in stimulus say you should do, but if you don't believe in stimulus like. Of course, a trillion is better than three trillion, but like like Ray Paul right, you were saying J like he doesn't think this is a conceptually sound so like he doesn't care that the package is smaller than what, stimulus, believers believe in
and it's very it's it's neither fish nor fowl. As this right, I mean. I think that the the problem here isn't just that the year like Donald Trump, doesn't have either strong ideological priors or a carefully reasoned policy. Fiction as to what the best way out of this is. The problem is that there isn't any one in the republican cap that is making a forceful argument for particular agenda. That's tied to the current corona virus moment right like the fact that this he's a standard issue, you know macro like a keynesian macroeconomics debate. Matt. What you are alluding to is like the populace argument is implicitly okay. This is fine but we have a literal pandemic and so paying people to stay home is in fact epidemiologically a good idea, but they're not seeing that affirmatively convert
sleep, you could make a logical argument, a two pronged one, one that, because demand management doesn't work pumping money and through peril. Tax cuts is an imperfect fit for the current moment, like it doesnt actually solve You know people not going out and spending money and also losing their jobs problem, but it's the only lever we have, it doesn't thing at all, and so it's better than nothing. You could also make the argument that ok, we are trying to put Americans on an economic putting that they can sustain until we get a vaccine, because we don't think it's going to get better. Like you could see the hour If we are not going to give massive amounts of state and goal revenue aid, because we want them to be pressuring businesses to Rio
and we want people to feel that they need to go back to work, but we're doing that because we don't want to give anybody. The false hope that all they need to do is hunker down for two weeks. In this whole thing will be solved. That would be partnered with like a very aggressive, you know public awareness masking campaign that would be partnered with some time, Burying of optimism about vaccine so that you dont bill people's hopes up and then you know led to a massive, medical and behavioral backlash when a vaccine doesn't materialise in two months that argument, isn't being made, and so you end up having This thing where you look at like what needs implosion, House, Democrats or arrest, four and there is a lot of stuff in there in like. Maybe you know it's not that not the it's its that. That is a a super, coherent theory of what precisely the things are that are the problems we most need solve but there are things in there that are tied to specific problems, whether it is state
legal aid because of state tax revenues, Juno extending the unemployment insurance, because you do not in fact want to force people to go out and look for jobs when there are neither jobs nor Lake Public Health available outside. And though there have been like lots of negotiations between Republicans and Democrats on the staff of the last several days, it's become clear that those are Preliminary negotiations, where public now they are now the camps, appear to understand how are, they are apart, but there have haven't been any, is getting treated because it doesn't sound like you know, in order to the horse. If you have to understand which are the horses that you don't want to give up and that's where it doesn't seem like there's any kind of consensus, because there isn't a forceful argument for what year is the problem for trying to solve right there. I think that there are very much in the sense that you have a two pronged argument, but one prong is missing, and so the argument of we Wales we will
gale blood back unemployment and we would have people go back to work- would require the other prong of it is safe to go back to work and you have a work to go back to, and so much of this discussion of like payroll tax cuts is like you know, who doesn't get a tax, get people not on payrolls, and so I think that there is an interesting to see these economic policies. And that's I thought that You were very smart on talking about Marco Rubio that, like yes generally, we have this understanding of how we would like the economy to work. That understanding, unfortunately, does not apply in the midst of a global pandemic, and so I think that there is a sets it for a lot of republican still that no doubt the like this economic policy remain sound and we have to do these things in the way that we would do them if there were not a global pandemic, and the issue is that that doesn't seem one to mesh with reality, but also,
not matching with what voters want, and I think that that's something that's particularly interesting about the zombie organism argument. Is that part of the implied message of trump in two thousand and fifteen two thousand, and sixteen was that reaganism didn't work. Was that asking people to accept cuts to social security while also cutting taxes for the people who they work for and paying for wars in Afghanistan? Iraq didn't make any sense which that's true, it didn't make any sense, and then it turns out that Trump didn't particularly care about that and Mitch. Mcconnell must certainly does not care about that over the actual it, we should have more peril tax cuts, and we should have an economic policy directed by the Peters Navarro of the world, and we should continue to spend. A lot
money on foreign wars and its essentially like. If you had a two pronged argument, you decided both of those prongs, renewed, listen, useless, and then you just have no argument whatsoever one. So I another thing the relevant to this conversation that that I think it is, sort of missed it. If your skin in the headlines is that normally, when we think about how is the economy doing right, there's a lot of different variables that you can look at, you can look at household income, you can look at job numbers, you can look at wage numbers, you can look at GDP, numbers and they just generally move in the same direction things will happen where, like for a while, time during the Obama years people were getting jobs and GDP was going up and the stock market was going up. The wages work really going, but they were going down
Eve and eventually, as more and more people got jobs, wages did start to go up. So still, even though people would talk about a discharge, directionally, like things were getting better in two thousand and eleven two thousand and twelve, two thousand and thirteen did you weren't getting better like super duper fast will be seen over the past few months is an actual war. Complete separation of some different indicate sprite in which we have seen GDP numbers do terribly employment numbers do works right than that, like the
worst unemployment figures since the great depression, but the stock market has done fine and critically personal income has actually gone up, and that's really important for people to hear personal income has gone up despite the collapse in GDP and employment, and that's because twelve thousand dollars checks. went out to most american adults and the unemployment insurance, even though people have had trouble signing up for it been very generous and after a few weeks of problems, people have gotten so lots of people are about as well off in their personal financial situation as they ever sort of have been, and then you look stock market an awesome.
We'll see this is a question of sort of chicanery, but actually, like personal income, has been robust, so people continue to buy things, but they dont by all the things that they used to buy and unfortunately, The sort of tragic nature of this is that the kind things that people have cut back on are disproportionately what's produced by locally owned. Independent businesses the kinds of things that the companies that make up the stock market make like been a reason not to buy the right, like gives a perfectly fine time, I have bought more random computer. Swag than ever before. I sit in my stupid basement all day like messing around, so I got a webcam I've got. You know external keyboard right and so like apples, doing great Amazon's, doing great people still search for things on the internet right and so like,
markets up. Small businesses are collapsing. It's it's it's sad and it's unusual, but this debate is where that can all come, cried into a hot right. Now, normally, you would say anyone who sort of EL, moderate, too conservative would say well, look income can't just go. Up and up and up if employment and actual production are not going up like that, doesn't that doesn't work Matt like this isn't like fantasy communism. People need to actually do things and that I think, just how republicans are conceiving of sit like we need to get people back in paid employment by any means necessary, including sort of rushing on endemic measures, yanking out bonus, unemployment, insurance, etc.
Democrats are kind of saying like no like that wily Coyote moment has not arrived by interest rate, are still really really low. Inflation is modest and fine in part, because all these things, like Google and Facebook don't face meaningful supply constraints, it's not like well, if everyone sitting at home by doing their internet stuff like us who who's gonna, make the internet like this plenty of internet to go around right. It's fine things that we have real scarcity fright like mix up those you're going under utilised because we're not we're not out there and so Democrats, you saying look like just just keep the party government
All kinds of terrible things are happening in the world, but household income has stayed. Ok, nothing terrible is happening on that front and we can prevent anything terrible from happening, but just continuing to cut checks. While we work everything else out, and I think that just natural Publican members of Congress dialogues, but like the kind of main street business man type who or the kind of backbone of the Republican Party who republican members listen to like it, the guys you own the card dealerships it either, get rubs them the wrong way, just like on a brute instinctive level. This idea that we could just have millions and millions of people out of work, and just give them money, and the three of US like sit at home and type like like then like that doesn't work great by gives it's not real like the economy
the dire straits, unless people are in jobs even if that means exposing them to help the rest, even means real living standards for all like want America back to work and the democratic stimulus package, which is different from two dozen nine recovery act. In that sense, its matter back work package. It's a dont, get evicted from your house package, it's a hold tight hopefully, we're gonna get a vaccine at some point package and its honestly, like a good idea, but I can see why a lot of people and conservative politics find it like to trippy and weird. Maybe this this can't be disconnected from the kind of broader question: of where America is in terms of pandemic response. Right, like there is a fairly
weird broad awareness that we are doing badly on this front right now and that things could have gone differently this spring. That would have made it. That would have put us in a better position right now that separate from the question of kind of what can be done about it at this point and there seems to be a certain understanding. You know a crossing ology is that late hours that the system is just not capable of a super coordinated super competent pandemic response, whether that's because of like the character of the president, the nature federal system. There are some people who, I think, our kind of overly hastily blaming Americans. Firstly, failing the marshmallow, tester fer, you know themselves not taking enough to really allow the community spread to slow, which I think,
I think, is an constructively wrong thing to say right, because it really speaks to our puritan heritage that somehow this is our Individual does. It is under threat and above all, that it is definitely true that, because, to the extent that the curve got flowed in spring. A lot of that was because of in India the voluntary actions by people and like there was deafening a very strong shared willingness in early spring to allow things to lock down, so that we could crush the curve. It's not super. The problem is that it's Not Americans fault the curved and get crushed right, like your we're, just mixed messages about what exactly a lockdown was supposed to do, which we discussed at the time. But at this point, because that has happened, you don't see a lot of peoples in you see people saying in this kind of counterfactual sense. If we shut everything
down for forty six weeks. We really could get on top of this, but no one is seriously proposing. That is like the basis for the phase for stimulus package. You don't have an anti policing look. We have a chance to kill the corona virus once and for all by requires that we just pump a lot of money into the economy. So nothing can happen for forty six weeks in. Ed. What you have is kind of an understanding on both sides that we're gonna be muddling through this, and so how do we muddle through this in a way that most mitigates the hall and you know what we're describing reply: in saying is we need to mitigate the harm to aid, functioning economy in which people are in the workforce. Because that's going to put us- in the best footing. When we return to an epidemiological normal and Democrats saying we need timidity, the harm to like a massive wave of eviction notices- and you know like we need to make sure
that people are preserved for the jobs that will eventually return. We assume once there is actual vaccine. I think the last thing that wanted to say on this point. Is that the it's impossible to think about how republican specifically, not necessarily conservatives but Republicans, our thinking about this issue without contemplating the fact that this does have a lot to do with the election and how much of this is the same dear and you see it if you go through, I poured through pretty much everything the Heritage Foundation has put on corona, Harris fiscal policy over the last couple of months, and so much of it is the economy was really really really really strong, and that was great for Donald Trump and now the economy is also strong, and that is bad for Donald Trump. So, if we could just wreck con arson, back to late February than ever. Would be fine and whatever we need to do in order for
to happen. While we should just do that which seems a meme for one that basically impossible because of on a number of small businesses closing on the number and the fact that especially the issue is in that krona virus does not particularly care about the economy. Corona virus is not
back? Oh, you want to reopen your bar. That sounds cool I'll, be over here now we are seeing like real growth and infections. Is this happening globally? By the way you are seeing a rise in infections in France, YO in Australia that there is one state in Australia? That's instilled a curfew where the leader of that state, I believe it's Victoria, said you, where you slept last night, is where you're going to be for the next four, the Roman, basically the foreseeable future, and so what you are saying is that all of the things that we want to do all the things that we need to do in many respects to continue economic life and a lot of these things at your life did not stop for corona virus police brutality did not stop for corona virus. The issues that divide us, the most did not stop for colonel virus, and so what you are saying is that so much of the economic imperative of opening
Businesses and opening up industry is in trying to do this as safely as possible. Even the schools debate you are saying that crowd of ours does not particular care. Gratifiers is like cool lots of people close together in an inn in an enclosed space. Breathing awesome let spread, and so I think that it's important to think about how much us to play around with the election and how much this Esther play in with a virus that does not particular care about our economic viewpoint. We should take a break and then- and there was talk about some of the the specifics in these packages. If the last year's, how does anything it's that we don't? what will happen next, but there's one thing? We can all be sure of the only future one. We can all share and leading the charge in building that future his mercy core with over forty, There's a humanitarian work under its belt building, together as a mercy course DNA and as the climate this increases their partnering with those on the front lines? Making resources more accessible to farmers across the globe
the communities against escalating natural disasters and ensuring people have who's. They mean to thrive. Mercy course. Do what matters, but they can't do it alone for you and I commend together. We have the power to reshape the world when it seems like every day brings a new crisis when every news alert makes you want to throw your phone across the room, we may start to feel a little powerless, but of course here to remind us, we don't need to turkey you really based action. We can make change. We are nothing in this together. What's next up to all of us learn how you can be a part of what possible at mercy core dot org. M e r c. Why C, o r p s dot org everything you know of hours in the day to get everything done, it might be because you're missing out on three of them. Where does
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things of all sizes and industries, hookups blazingly, fast features and one zero plus integrations they get a must have for anyone wanting to track, manage and tackle their work in one place. Get your hours back with click up, try it for free today, at Clickup COM, the weeds. What Democrats put on the table here this was their heroes, act that they passed months ago. It's a roughly three trillion dollars. Actually, I should say I show with big figures, because the specifics get very specific, but you know one thing I did a couple of weeks ago was: I just sort of as macroeconomists like what scale of expenditure do they think is needed and what's interesting, is that they're talking about two different kinds of numbers right? So one set of estimates, lower estimates around one and a half trillion dollars
was what do we need to sort of get us pass? The election pass the new year past inauguration day, into you know a few weeks time so that there could be a wet faced by the right, this is about one point: five trillion dollars so that in the neighbourhood of the republican money and an easier if a compromise arises. That may be what we wind up to write a sort of kick the canned down the road, your number around three trillion or even hype, four trillion or more is more like what economists we're thinking in terms of a comprehensive solution right, a leave the car with enough tank gas in the tank to get where you going not just delight cavack crisis at the start of the binding demonstration so Democrats or proposals are more along those lines. So here is act. Has
a bunch of money to extend the six hundred dollars a week, unemployment insurance for several more money It has another round of one two hundred dollars stimulus checks for almost everybody they open. They want to include dependents, who aren't children this time, so it's a little bit of a bigger program than it was before They also have a bunch of money going to state government, primarily through the channel of Medicaid reimbursement rates, which is how Democrats like to do this as it might have suggested, a more generous medicate programmes which tend to have democratic members of Congress also have some money through snap food stamps assistance and they have a. Of money for school systems, which was originally, I think it designed to avert. It was in real. We virus focused in their intentions. An interesting thing about this is Democrats passed this package a while ago
house Democrats with the idea of sort of gaining the upper hand politically visa Republicans, so they can say now we did our work. We passed a three trillion dollar bills, Democrats support this. All we need is like for Senate Republicans to come over to our side, and we can solve this problem like just forget about, ran paw like he doesn't matter with you now. The democratic caucus just come on over Corey Susan, just a few you and were done, but in the interim Democrats have actually were used bid, and so now Nancy Policy is talking about not just an extension of bones unemployment insurance, but creating it as a sort of semi. Permanent automatic state aye Sir there would extend as long as unemployment is high. I she's talking about a big new package for schools. To address the health hazards and and safety risks of round
corona virus Democrats or talk but the need to put money into the postal service, because there is a sort of crisis folding in mail delivery, whose psych fold pensions, I think we dont totally understand but We are saying to the extent that the problems here is the usb S, need some more money and it's not just deliberate sabotage on the part of Trump appoint to use like let's go, spend the money. So in that sense the parties are getting further apart, like Democrats are coming up with new stuff they want to put on the table. Mcconnell has his trillion dollar bill, which you know, I think it's just not big enough and then is limited by the desire to get things under a trillion, so he has this kind of loan program, small business loan program. Then Marco Rubio put in it's based, work by our animals, a MAC and Adam Letty.
Mary that I have touted several times in boxes. Virtual pages But really I was just was only given a very small amount of like budget to work with, He is a very limited version of this programme would help like seasonal businesses, which is fine. I mean what my lover she stopped there. Says, but many businesses that are not seasonal could use help they caught the bonus unemployment insurance. By about two thirds they do another round of checks, but it's not as generous as Democrats version. They have money for schools, but not as much money. Nothing for the postal service, nothing first state governments broadly in the money for schools, is also make explicit.
the tide to getting schools to reopen, rather than trying to support schools as part of a collapsing state tax base, exactly any it's just its small. If you did the republican bill, it would be helpful relative to do nothing baseline, but you were still gonna- have a massive state and local government budget crisis. You still have a postal service budget crisis. You still gonna have the economic welfare of unemployed people plummeting. And the idea is, this- will make people hurry to go. Take the available jobs which I mean, I think it will on some level, but also if people don't have money They won't be able to buy goods and services, and the actual
the level of employment demanded by business owners. He's gonna go down rather than up. So no I mean I don't know why Republicans or so focused on this the least. How did a great you don't box bees, and it was just like this- no jobs, there are very large number of unemployed people for every job opening and it also of theirs. Like one unemployed person, every job opening, then people's incentives to take jobs like matters a lot Twenty! It doesn't really matter like seventeen people can pass on the job opening legs. I always take the unemployment rate Obviously, one that right and there's no evidence that there's a problem, filling jobs right now, there's a lot of you know restaurant owners trying to do take out or websites that are laying people off, because there's no advertising demand like
it's. The economy's facts were guided. I dont know what the what the incentive issue is exactly even one. I believe in it. I'm not I'm not from sunlight left him, jumbo land where it's like, we should abolish wage slavery or something. But you know this is not a lot of interest in hiring people ready for entirely understandable reasons like that we have to deal with the economy. We have not the economy, we want and we are facing an eviction crisis that is in Coming for millions of Americans and the challenge, There are many those points that, like the landlords themselves are often people who they rent out a few properties and then they themselves are facing. An eviction crisis of their own or yodel inability to pay. So there's these tumbling dominoes, impacting our economy and the response cannot be like payroll cut. The response absolutely cannot be like we can't do the
things that we would do in other times, because this is not other times you can't. You can't fight the last war and you can't make it march again like we get video, you cannot run a campaigner, let's make it a February twenty seventh again I I think that the entire question here is whether you can in fact do that lake Normative Lee, it might not be the best way to craft a package, but I, obviously like the underlying question. Here is if things muddle through as they are, is that enough for Republicans and if it isn't, can Republicans managed to deflect blame and it seems, like Republicans, have learned the lesson of the twenty nine stimulus that you know. If it's your fault, number is below a certain like any problems associated with being built below a certain arbitrary size number are not necessarily the fault of the people who kept it. Small and Democrats are trying very, very hard
to avoid the twenty nine scenario in which an incoming president has to say a lot of political capital trying to do something that could have been done by his predecessor, but whether its goal whether the politics of this are going to play out in the way Republicans want seems like the open question, not like a thing that is obviously going to go badly for them. Is it for a white paper, yeah yeah! Let's, let's do it lets. Let's take the brain closer to the paper. If you're, a gig worker or self employed, there's some good news about PPP loans. You might want to consider millions of sir. Employed workers may qualify for up to fifty thousand dollars in one hundred percent forgivable loans. You might be one of those millions as the leader PPP loans wobbly, can help you find out. They have helped over three hundred Thou in small businesses across Amerika get a ppp loan funds are limited. So apply now at Womply COM box and see if you qualify for a ppp loan that
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a different times in my life, super helpful. But we all know like it's really expensive and sometimes hard to find some good. Better help is like Came as much more accessible is great for these pandemic circumstances, but just like a cool model. So this punk sponsored by better help and listeners. The weeds get ten percent off their first month at better help. Dot com, slash weeds, get started today, better help, dot com, slash weeds visit, better hd, L, p d, calm, slash, weeds and joined the over one million people who have taken charge of their mental health with the help of an experienced better help. Professional. Ok, so we have a on Topic white paper today, this by a MAR Farouk Adriana, color and impartial moratoria The title is due: unemployment insurance benefits, improve, match, quality evidence from reset the. U S, recessions, ass. If this is looking not at the pandemic, but add that did the great work,
and other earlier episodes. There were more sort of macroeconomically conventional, so it just totally puts aside because one issue that's been in the mix here it's like. Do. We even want people to go back to work and they're looking at recessions we clearly right like lead, go in she doesn't. Ninety thousand ten was to get people into jobs straight through some company and what happened in the two thousand nine recession was not Congress Mead you, I benefits higher than those of how money you get per week, but they knew the duration longer because normally the way you I works is at its We pretty stingy in terms of the amount of money you gap, but he just the benefits expire fast. So that is ok like we don't want you to like starve to death or lose your electricity just because you lost your job But we do want you to go get another job by fast,
and then during a big recession was ok, really real and more latitude. We understand it is hard to find work answering as well. Happen there and they find that people get better job matches in the that like they. Act choosy her about picking jobs, but not not like Leezie, not like just don't do anything and then you know a million weeks laid. I got man, I guess I better get a job, but they actually get jobs that match their skill levels better, and so you see fewer people. Sort of imposition of being overqualified for their work. Fewer people like with Phd is another white like Bergen tell jobs, and it is particularly true for four women for non white people for people with lesser levels of education and then something I think you know if you listen to me, talk about money
policy. We always see that there's a lot of sort of low discrimination in the labour market and when unemployment really high. I think it seems, like employ There's really cannot fall back on, thereby see used and when, In plenary gets lower that becomes less true right. It's not itself I don't know it's only racism or sexism or whatever else just vanishes, because there's economic anxiety, but as I wanted to hire people ever. It makes a good hard look at like. Can this guy really do the job, but we and unemployment is really really high. It's like I'm Anna liked it cut a disguised give em, I'm not going to give it to him, so that all seems pretty good. It's a pretty optimistic. Take on unemployment, although we discount farm. I think the like lurking suspicion of Cardella ship owning Republicans that, like the welfare state,
You know, what's people get a letter, a little choosy get a little soft right and if you ever believe people she'll be out there pounding the pavement taken a job. Believe what do you mean? You're unemployed? This help want decided to talk about like do you, why discourage people from taking the Taco Bell job, they get the quote, unquote better match instead right. I think this, this really speaks to how in many ways there is your there's, a lot of talk on the internet and the discourse about the profession oh management class, I'm using very helpful air quotes, but I think that
There really is something to be said about the Republican Party's car dealership owner class, because TED Cruz. He did a podcast a couple of weeks ago, where he talked about the Republicans or you are the party of the working class, but it's the party of the working class. That also has people who work for them, and so I think that there really is a set here that the idea of you know what Germany did, for instance, even as its economy has faltered, but unemployment has stated around four percent is that they just cut checks to people and they cut checks to people that helps people stand their homes, which does give you the space in the mental acuity to be able to say, look for. If you wanted to, I think that there is an understanding of and may I think this is a longstanding misconception, but I think the idea that no unemployment will make you soft and die operation will make you hard and a better worker when that's that's the same reason why we see these stories about how
under a fraud. Is that this elderly grandma? What came out of retirement to drive a bus when you're like? No? No, that's not good. She should not doing what this is all very bad have goes back to the conceit of what this, even this supposed to look like, which I find concerning, I think, what's worth it, Emphasising about this paper. Is that it's not finding that workers are just holding out for better paying jobs and going to firms that pay better? It is like a firm ITALY finding that this is a better situation for both the employer and the worker because efficiency is improved when there's better match those workers are free to go to a worker who isn't stuck in a job. That's poor match, for them will be able to like go improve the effectiveness of the organisation that they end up, going to etc, and but that says to me, in addition to mats point about employers just kind of falling on their biases in a time of high unemployment is like there are met
problems with the way that you're running an each our department, if it takes people being able to Lake rely on unemployment benefits to find the best match for your firm in a tie. Of high unemployment, when demand is very, very high for jobs that you know that seems like the way around this Republicans like log jam of whether you want people to go back to work while going back to work or not right. If markets worked in the lake ideally efficient way, you would have had some figuring out how to do hiring in a way that didn't have you hire overqualified people who weren't going to make you from the best it could possibly know who we're going to do the job you were we hiring them for as well as somebody who didn't have as many traditional qualifications like? That seems like a solvable problem that this is pointing that doesn't require higher unemployment insurance to fix, but did
does allow, for you know and an ultimate solution. That is preferable for both employers and workers. If you do have the general state generosity to expand unemployment, that that's big. If there s one thing in a clear manner: that right is like there's a visit. Junction between. What's like, socially optimal and, what's individually, optimal for four companies where like when I had Jennifer Dalia gone. We were talking about. You know finding jobs for re, entering prisoners right, unlike just one of the big things there is its is clearly like much much much better from societies. Viewpoint is, buddy hires the Ex cons right by both because their people and they need jobs. Jobs, but also because, like you know, if, if you have a criminal record and connections
the criminal world and also no job source of legitimate income. Thank you. Gonna. Do more, do more cry, sway. You understand why that's not employers, first choice of person to hire and just have a robust labour market, though get a better social outcome, because Productivity, low wage employers have to stretch themselves a little bit because like every body whose really model employee ride, like you ve got degrees, your finish high school you're doing stuff on time you staying away from drugs, like those people are all getting really good. Jobs and so then the people whose business model is like this job is not so great like they. To take a risk, and people were problems, and that's it way better for society like we want recovering alcohol.
To get jobs, we want returning offenders to get jobs, but that's not, That's only ones dream employ right. So, you always have this tension words. I gallic the business owners dont want to deal with problem candid, they love a situation in which, like well educated, non trouble, making super competent people are like desperate you go get a shitty low, paid job with bad working conditions and they'll be like well, that's good. For the economy right like where, we're fill in our vacancy spelling does actually what a good economy looks like like, you want, the real hard cases to light an opportunity till I get some reps in and prove they can show up today and end like get get on the right track, and that means a situation in which, like the desirable employees,
I have an uneasy street, whether that's because they can take an extra weeks to find a job or ideally just because the economy is healthy and everybody is like posted at the. Upstairs and do another good stuff. Yes. Well, then call our I like. Ok, I'm thanks guys thing as always to our sponsors, things to our producer. Jeffrey girl. Thank you to people who are prepared to my, but I really cannot that's enough that in these uncertain times at the greatest thing you can do for society is to buy my book tweet about it, which approve purchase, you're gettin the dry You gonna do to annoy daring, Jane? More me? Whoever deserves a noise and I'll be back on Friday.
Transcript generated on 2021-05-18.