« The Weeds

There’s collusion, and then there’s collusion

2018-07-17

Dara, Ezra, and Matt discuss President Trump's remarkable performance in Helsinki and new research on employers colluding to hold down pay. Links: Dara mentioned Quinta Jurecic's piece tying Trump in Helsinki to Trump on Charlottesville. Here's the Ari Fleischer tweet Ezra referenced. Ezra walked through what we know about Trump's dealings with Russia. Here's that rundown (and more analysis) in text form. Trump tweeted during recording — here's the full text Matt read. Matt mentioned Adam Entous's New Yorker piece on Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates. The 2015 Morning Joe interview Ezra mentioned. Joe Scarborough says Putin has a record of killing journalists and political opponents, and invading countries. Trump responds, "At least he's a leader." White paper: "Theory and Evidence on Employer Collusion in the Franchise Sector" (Alan B. Krueger, Orley Ashenfelter) More on the news about the no-poaching agreement in Washington state.

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
I watched my closely tied lunch, after which I do make things a clean, excellent detergent and useful unofficial currency. Yes, Last time. I challenge hello. Welcome to another episode of the weeds on the box. Media pact does not work, and that replaces with as reclined when we are here today to talk about collusion white Paper about collusion amongst franchise owners to
press their labour markets, probably what you all were expecting when you click on this episode is definitely the number one form of collusion, that is on people's minds, evidently, the form of collusion that is being five most aggressively by american elected officials. Yes, that said that other people often ask who is noteworthy. That Monday, in Helsinki, Finland, Donald Trump stood next to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, the liver day. Annex ordinary for fun, I saw a number of people say that this was like the most disgraceful thing that ever seen an american president do, which I think is overstated but it was certainly the weirdest thing I've ever seen in America. I think there is a weird like Mehta conversation happening. There must be german word for the pain
finding out something you already know it's true over and over and over again, and I feel, like the american press corps, keeps going through that with Donald Trump backup to if you just said any member of the, U S Prescott like what is the situation with Donald Trump Vladimir Putin. How does he feel about em? How does he act towards him like what you think about the investigation disbursement of said you Donald Trump not trust US intelligence agencies. In his often go to war with them, he believes all invest nation. Here is a witch hunt designed the illegitimacy twenty sixteen campaign victory. He said ass. He likes Vladimir Putin why Ah, he likes him so much as a little bit unclear, but definite he likes him wants a closer look, Russia does not really like NATO or the EU, and we all knew all this, and this was all like completely under the damage that has been totally straightforward about it and then you
there is something about watching the president of the United States. They end up there on a stage with Vladimir Putin, while Putin is like smirking as this is going so well, he never imagined in his wireless dreams would go so well and trembling. On the one hand, sure I trust my own intelligence agents, other hand, Putin offered a very strong denial that it was him. I don't see why Russia would have hacked the election to help me out. That doesn't make any sense to me. So, yes, the very weird exhibit, and there is a weirdness in which Donald Trump just refuses to even, do you like the minimum too, or up his own position and is not good, if all of his critics like absolute maximum leverage over him. But that said, I think that, for the full of freak out. I am watching royal through the press and the political system, the degree to which, nothing new happened. No new policies were announced and Donald Trump did not in any way change his perspective on either
Erica Intelligence agencies or Russia and Putin is notable, so I mean I am of two minds on this, because I definitely agree with all of that. Lake, it's not right level rounded up. There was nothing new here in our all all that, at the same time, we know White House officials expected there to be something new. We know that they actually thought that this was to be like a nix into China that await us. If it, hold the Wall Street Journal that, like they were preparing for trying to take a hard line from to confront Putin publicly. It would be a surprise, because he's been person so conciliatory to Russia in the past and the official, told the journal of leave that didn't happen like I'm, not sure if it makes sense to if, if they shouldn't have been surprised lake, I get this just some saying again. Everything is already said publicly. So if your White House official what exists
we were you expecting to kind of suddenly change and Donald Trump mind about this same time, no quantity recheck who writes for Lothar, for the Atlantic, but compare this to the post Charlottesville Press conference, which actually think is a very good parallel, because that was another example of at very least, if this president is not interested in acknowledging the extent to which racial vision and racism has fuelled his rise at very least, he can condemn people literally killing and anti racist protester, Annie, the wedding did a very good people on both sides. They, like in this At the very least the Friday after you have literally at indictment for russian hacking of the Dnc email operation, you could exe,
that's him to say something that would underline that and the fact that he wasn't even willing to do that. It takes the bottom out of what you couldn't anticipate from conciliatory attitude and Donald show us out of the EU was new, but I think it's important and it is starting to get lost right, which is that Commission Republicans, it seems to me to say it long ago that they are all land would Donald Trump on this. Russia gate cover up ride like they are fully committed, helping Donald Trump avoid any kind of accountability for this, and they hoped that as part of their own cover up effort Trump would say some scalding words to Putin. They had evidently been briefed by staffers. That was gonna happen Trump. They didn't do it so then Republicans who had been expecting this political win didn't see it and they acted alone, freaked out that door, combined related, neutral reporters, but starting this morning I see congressional republicans rallying rate, unlike their back on track
message and what they were all out, there is saying is like this is frustrating guys their speaking through MIKE Alan speaking, through Jake Sherman disorder, go to insiders and sank, will really frustrated by trumps b. If you're here about some prior, so we you need to understand- is that true is so defensive about having the legitimacy of his election question that he simply refuse is to acknowledge the severity of of the hacking issue and, I think, gets boss wait did like what was really telling about their press conference trunk. At this great question from the waiters journalist, which was an about election hack right, it was do you hold the Russians responsible for anything at all that has driven? U S. Russia relations to a low point Dasso today, Tuesday, is were recording, is the for Europe firstly, of when russian backed forces in Eastern Ukraine shot down
Malaysian airlines flight and killed three hundred civilians right. That clearly contribute, to a downward spiral. And u US relations, and you can even both sides, it and say like look a mess Gosh shouldn't have tried to pull you rain into the western orbit in the first place, that was aggressive but, like everybody knows, the time the Russian shut down its civilian airliner killed. Hundreds of dutch people that, like that contributed, Trump. Didn't say that bright, like from went up and he maintained not only his complete innocence in Equidistant with the FBI, but that the only thing that had made the? U S, relationship bad was the mauler investigation
both sides are responsible, but the only thing, the only specific events even aim is him alive. I would spell thing he said both sides. The then the only be only frame was route. World were all wrong here right, but what's really wrong is more trumps. Apollonia on Russia, including specifically on the plane incident deep back two years, before the election right. It's not like this election thing happened at a nowhere and then be, started getting on trumps case about Russia and he started getting defensive about it. Trump in twenty fifteen and was saying that maybe russian was it responsible for doubting the airliner trump into fifteen said in response to a question from a woman who we now know, is an indicted russian spy that he thought the United States should lift sanctions on Russia that we should, try harder to get along with Russia? And, like that question, and like I agree, there is nothing new but like
It's the man newness of it. I dont think people are confronting that light. there's. A range of interpretations are like trumps relationship with Russia, but it is deeper than not liking. Bob must so here's the shift that I do see happening, and I think it is interesting in ECHO's to your point map so probably too weeks ago now, one week ago, Jonathan Shape published a big storing York magazine. That was the worst case scenario for Donald Trump in Russia, which is basically arguing the dating back to the late Abies Donald Trump has been a russian agent of sums. compromised or paid off. You know in this. It's all unclear what is going. I think people often are too quick to assume it's economic, simple thing, but but the door from somehow being handled by Russia and so the? U S, it is in fact not an agent of U S interest, but is an important ways, an agent of russian interests, and when that story came out
in this sort of like Russia, conspiracy sphere are like very, very highly praised. Although people chip getting too late and then I think in the report trying to seem thoughtful, hinder and above all sphere some people that interesting, but people treated at arm's length. What I have seen happened in the past couple of days is Donald Trump went up and decided to absorb considerable political backlash by embrace Putin by attacking he isn't votes by ignoring everything? Is AIDS had asked him to do, some of which they had leaked that aid them to two different news outlets. The behaviour strikes. People are so inexplicable in a rational agent model right even fell, jumped like Russia even be does like Vladimir Putin. Why act like this? Why not just do the minimum to cover yourself and just make a strong point? about the rush investigation and then just like move on that dumb
come himself pushed open the Overton Window on Donald Trump in Russia this week that all of a sudden we're taking much more serious idea that may be actually compromised. Voices have been saying this like Rachel Motto and John Trade and others are getting more of a hearing. I, as others. This amazing tweet from our reflation, who is George W Bush, is from a press secretary and emerged as a big trump apologist reset. Look. I don't those collusion between Donald Trump and Russia, but watching the President with Putin. I can understand why Democrats think there is in my Democrats think that Russia has something on Trump, and so I do think that an important political shift that has happened. That is not based on new information, but is based on just being confronted so aggressively with the infirmary in the behaviour that we already have been had been seeing is that people are entertaining more exe. Dream possible interpretations of the Trump Russia relationship? And they were even two weeks ago. I think that is true.
I think it is understandable, and I think it is dangerous one of the things that is Dreamily frustrating to me as a journalist about this era is that if it were always the case that one facts we don't know are The thing we would most readily jump to because they confirm our pre existing conceptions. None of us would have jobs. Rightly literally. The reason that we exist is to eliminate things that people don't know that they would not necessarily be able to fill in on their own and whenever something happens in this Trump Russia scandal that is Zactly what you would expect if you were writing cold war fan fiction, Lake did statement of we and our aid activists on Monday is kind of a great example of this, like I totally dismissed. Initial are very, like Deanna Ray, is exactly what liberals would jump due to say. Ah, this is an organization we don't like, maybe it's compromised, and yet that is
the fear, is exactly what has happened to a certain extent and it's very Annoying to consistently be wrong because I'm saying it can't be as simple as you assume at this time, though, I think it's very easy once you ve been burned by that a few times to go? Ok! Well, I guess it is as simple as everyone assumes in late to jump to the most MAX most interpretation and one of the dynamics that that creates is assuming that all kind of explanations, are exculpatory like I really don't think that be Donald Trump Essay, ravening maw of ego, who is fundamentally incapable of seeing geopolitics ex beyond the sphere of his triumph over Hillary Clinton and twenty sixteen and his on aid. to conduct himself as the President of the United States is everything. Is there distorted by the gravitational field at the twenty sixteen election, like, I dont think that that's a defensive, Donald Trump or if its being offered as one it's not a very good one, I think it's something that we should
retain as a an explanation, because it doesn't just apply to Putin. It applies to a bunch of other things, but when its being seen as the old turn to the trump is compromised by Russia narrative. It creates a very your dynamic where people are being accused of giving trumped the benefit of the doubt he doesn't deserve or something else. We d like that when, in fact the converse should be having as okay. The the United States government is being led by a man who is not acting is irrational actor and who his own and the members of his party acknowledge, is like unable to see the ship of state, because he's so obsessed with his own flimsy victorian. His estate in let's take a break, and I want to return to that push back a little bit,
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So I mean I agree that on its own First, like Donald Trump, is mentally unstable. Little baby is not like a great defence of him. I think, beyond the question of whether its exculpation are not the issue, is that a lot of Republicans on the hill to me, or not grappling with the scope of what is taking place? and I can offer in this scandal sense it like one hundred percent exculpatory vision of Donald Trump but I think people should take more seriously. What if Donald Trump believes. Based on reading some old Pappy Cannon books or some old John Luke Cox, takes from nineteen. Seventy is that the United States should fall. a GEO political alliance with Russia right and that the United It should disrupt its traditional lion system in favour of a new different alliance system based on different values like that a scandal at all. I happen to think it's a bad idea,
but, like it's a big deal, it's not like Trump is being a whiny baby. Its trump is true. revolutionise american farm policy and I don't know whether that's true or compromise theory is true or what. But what I do know is that trumps actions extend way beyond the confines of the special council investigation that, like he, has said that we should disrupt NAFTA and our trade agreements. There. He said that we should consider the national security threat of imported british aluminum ride, like he has said that we may be shouldn't, have troops on the canadian and so aluminum, yes, canadian aluminum. British british british aluminium is very sent every Nicosia Adela Minium other benefits, and there is a big thing going on here.
That is true, Trump, is being constrained by the institutional actors inside the executive branch right that, like not everybody, just jumps at his fingertips and the Miller the intelligence services and diplomatic corps and congressional pub it's all keep sort of trying to keep humpty dumpty, together again, but like trumpet clearly attempting to like seriously revise american foreign policy, and I to speculators exactly what motivates that is difficult. But I think it's more challenging. Then it should be to get people even engage with the fact that this is what's happening more at I'm about to do the thing that your warning against doing think there is a lot of focus still like an almost obsessive focus on what we don't know, particularly around motivation so
Donald Trump doing things, because he believes that America should form a new geopolitical lines with Russia, because Russia has a p tape it there looking over his head, because volumes financially messed with them, just because Donald Trump is very personally things: guinea and react extremely strongly to people praising him extremely poor. Lady people critic, the image of God is back up about this Putin and mauler thing and soldiers, operating in an emotionally Bert reactive way. I don't know, but I do think that the constant focus on that question really is distracting people from what we do know. I think how we know at this point is really under played in the way. The press reports is obviously too Darras point. We are instead in iterative breaks and filling the gaps or remain in our information. But at a cost of that often occurs that boxes in many ways founded on is it people miss. Then the big picture so wanted just go through. I just heard of peace on this week about just what we do know, because I think we should just set the table here. So we know
Russia, orchestrated a massive theft of information from the Democratic Party. In the Clinton campaign in use that information Help Donald Trump when the election, we also know Russia in order to help them job when the election ran massive social media campaigns. Trunion flame racial divisions and also probed, number state election systems deceiving tamper with him doesn't appear. They succeeded there, but we know that tried. We know that Trump publicly Russia to hack Clinton's emails. We know that the first time much actually did try to tackling its personal emails, came the same day, Donald Trump ass him for it, and we know the Trump repeatedly praise water poon at quite a considerable political cost in the aftermath. We also know the Trump Associates, like Roger Stone, appear to have it since warning of the release of the emails, we know it Tromp was the only person in this campaign, who's interested in cooperation with Russia, among other things, when a russian operative reached out to double from junior and said I ve got some dirt on Hillary Clinton. I'd like to give it you don't Junior said: if it's what you say, I love it and brought the campaign manager. Paul man afford and also Jared Kirshner on the first son in law. I guess he would call him to them
The meeting happened a trump tower in the aftermath of that meeting, Donald Trump personally, dictated to state the public lying about. What that meeting was about same is about adoption policy, the way First, a Donald Trump had nothing to do with that statement than internet. He personally as one who wrote it lying to us about it, so they thought they add something to hide their wings from trumps own public testimony that he fired the doktor the FBI to end his investigation into Russia's role, the twenty sixteen election. We know again things. Trumpet said that he wishes he had never hired analyses. He could fires attorney general for not being able to protect him. Well. From the Mahler investigation. We know two mats point about all this going back a bit further, that in Await Donald Trump Junior set of Chump organization. Russians make up a pretty. Proportionate cross section of lot of our assets in twenty fourteen Eric trim said we'd. rely on american banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia, which amazing quote, we know from a class you that from a three to twenty four,
keen buyers connected Russia or former soviet republics, made eighty six, all cash sales totalling more than a hundred million, a trump rented properties because, as we know, the paramount effort with in debt to Oleg DARE Pasqua or russian oligarchs, to prevent any actually asked their pockets team. Now that I'm pain manager. How do we use is to get hole? We know a lot, we know that, from campaign intervened in the drafting of the platform to weaken the language on Russia, we know the cushion or sought a secret channels channels. Russians, CS government couldn't hear their negotiation. We know the trump is repeatedly fought, both his administration and his party, sanctions. We know that Donald Trump has worked to undermine NATO, worked to undermine the alliance with the EU and everything you can to bring it closer to it Putin at point we know so much, there is little down a little suspicious. There has been such an extraordinary convergence of interests on both sides, meetings, contacts on them for God, in some than private, some them public. Some of them remembered that it
it is clear to me how different the different motivation questions are like. Let's say that Donald Trump invite him your Putin emailed to set up the Vladimir Putin's team is gonna hack emails, but Donald Trump after Election is gonna like Hell, Putin out and under my NATO does. How different is that from Donald Trump Saint, publicly, hey Russians. Could you have the emails and Putin saying I dont like NATO and be great if American Russia had a different workin relationship? The obstruction of justice stuff is similarly, let's ex so far beyond. At this point, I think what people mean when they say obstruction of justice. It is just weird my Theory on this at this point is that we keep waiting for something else, because we're hoping something will trigger consequences, but we know plenty. just don't know what to do with what we know. There's no actors in american politics would like the power, the incentive in the credibility, to bring any kind of consequences. We keep hoping more will find something that, like it itself, the spell of it like Creed, some some kind aftermath here, but we're not because the Republicans to your point Matt, they don't
to hold any one accountable for this, so yellow it's embarrassing like the story. This point is more than clear enough to know that something is really wrong here, but nobody quite like wants to do anything about it and I think we keep looking for something else to come out without really clear theory of what it would do, even if it did so. I think that that is, as part of it. I think that the pretty busy at the earth Mcgovern here Ray it's the thing and the rest for that is because its at the nexus of a lot of things that journalists political watchers, that people who care about blog information, often fetish eyes, which is we know eyes documents. We finish eyes that are secret? We fetish things that have to do with sex Do we air fetish I've kind of the one thing going to explain everything else right, like maybe because they can't bring com. The quinces down in the same way, but the idea that there is no kind of war
The answer here that some and actually successfully blackmailed Donald Trump into something, has, I think, the other problem, with every game just laid out is that a lot of it is incompetence rate lake, even regardless of the motivations here. It is clear that the from campaign Lake was slow. With a lot of stuff one of the reasons motivation is such attempting to argue about is because there were and a whole lot of difference in what we know between the two children are helping their father collude with Russia and that from children or just Healy freely stupid. What be when you think about it for criminal reasons, motivation and intent to end up being really important, which is one reason I guess also the people might focus are right, but I heard him in a GEO. Political implications is not clear how big it a survey on the thing about geopolitics, thou- and this is kind of where I am really struggling right Now- is when you were, stay everything as where were talking a lot about trump fighting.
Administration on the NATO stuff on the sanctions stuff and that's true right lake there is a lie, of policy levers that are being pushed at the state Department that are not necessarily distinguishable from what would have been done under Clinton administration on Russia and like it's, not Donald Trump is incapable of during officials who do what he wants to do on things, lake for all the crap, Jeff sessions like Donald Trump, successfully installed an attorney general and a few officials at age ass who are doing on immigration, that Donald Trump isn't aware of, but would probably be very happy about. If you did rightly it's not like that agenda is incapable of being turned into policy or that the president hasn't. in ST inability to hire people who will get that done for him in the question that I have is either in a collusion sense or in a kind of new geopolitical alliance in a match, in explanation. Sense. Both of those
only makes sense if you're actually moving the policy needle on Russia, and that's where I don't. stand what's going on right now, let's take a break
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While you guys we're talking literally Donald Trump issued a tweet said some light of this, and he says why had a great meeting with NATO raising vast amounts of money? I had an even better meeting with Vladimir Putin of Russia, SAM It is not being reported that way: M dash, the fake whose is going crazy with a capital see an exclamation point. I think it is reported that lay actually, I feel, like I feel like in terms of the Donald Trump had not that good of a meeting with NATO, but really enjoyed, is meeting thought him. A boon is precisely has baby, I agree, but so of course we don't know what happened in a private meeting with Putin on only what happened in the press conference. As far as we can tell from the report what transpired in the trunk Putin meeting was it they try to reach some kind of agreement too inside all Russia's involvement on the ground in Syria and defence of the Assad regime we
Israel security concerns about getting a rainy and backed forces away from its borders. are we had a good report in the new Yorker, which said that the Gulf Arab States, which no have had a very strong relationship, but Donald Trump sort of seem to have suggested this idea. You know they ve been not quite what with Israel against iranian interests, but they came up with the idea that look, maybe the United States, Russia and Israel can work together to give on the syrian rebels. But get aside to kick the Iranians out of sight right. I think they don't have a strong opinion on the merits of this idea, but the greatest clue, like a real policy idea right with like some concrete stakes and concrete meaning and it seems to be at least one of the things that trump and boot talked about an me what's been frustrating about this whole experience.
Is that you are saying Gara that, like an immigration read like Trump had a policy that was different from short of mainstream republican immigration policy, but he got it done Jeff sessions and Stephen Miller's immigration policy was not the dominant Republican Party immigration policy, but it was a real strain of republican party. Think just ass. She was an actual influential United States senator, He has allies in the House of representatives on this, but on Russia. Palace Tromp is like genuinely swimming alone. there's nobody on the republican bench who is in charge. Did in the site, revisionist Russia policy idea that he seems to have and so we have this incredible. Shady ness around everything Trump does That may be because there's like a scandal in the background, but it may just be that like Trump, has not been able to wield his own administration around the
Elsie viewpoint, that we should see it Ukraine, in its sphere of influence to brush, the idea that he tried so trumped came into office. Liquidity, Pecksy picked Michael Flynn. Who had very and usually pro russian where's. The end had taken a lot of money from Russia today and sat up I had tabled with wadding harpoon, so he had Rex tellers any runs from outside the outside and head like one, this order of friendship, metal with Putin, and am I think, it's totally reason will say that Dino Rex us it has had to do a lot. It deals and probably to our knowledge, is not a russian agent did not run very per russian State Department, but you can vote, much imagine how indulgent was meeting people in the oval office, and he brought up like I think, like washings, pretty doubts on Russia. I think a lot of Europeans, a guy, can do deal within and tell us and to be like yeah, done, a number of deals. Vladimir Putin, you can told you that and sure enough tell us and came in, and he because it was a little bit clear like he was a like a good bit man, you know so republican.
like them in and Donald Trump thought he get it. It didn't work as you say, but but I really think that something people under plays it job tried. It just blew up in his face way any party blow up in his face because, as his background of scandal behind radio like When Barack Obama was president tried, he was heavily criticized by Republicans, but also to an extent by democratic party hawks for not being tough enough on Russia. Right, and there was an understanding that his secretary defends Ash Carter would have preferred a more hawkish line and that Hillary Clinton were she to become president, would implement a more hawkish line, and I thought. I was wrong personally. It seems to me that, if anything Obama, allowed a little bit of an auto pilot on Ukraine to carry forward with no real plan and no real strategy, and they were provoking this sort of conflict over Eastern Europe that America had no
real interest in, but unfortunately now got into the point, including the point we're like dumb, from seems to have either or after the fact, complicity in, like actual crimes against American Citizens going around saying that things that Russia did like he's pretending they didn't even happened. It's created this toxicity around the idea of trying to have a double rapprochement. That, I think is really unfortunate like, as is counterproductive. Like there's this glimmers of sanity when Trump talks about this with Hannity last night, where he's like these are the only two nuclear powers on the world. It's important that we get along or we have a policy that pushes Russia into an alliance with China and, like those too are like ideas that make sense
but you said, is like mix. It goes to China in reverse, but, like that doesn't like that's it were gradually Nixy codes degeneration if Nixon had been elected with the active assistance of chinese military intelligence that he wouldn't be able to go to. China like you need to stab lish that you have a clear view of who the other side is, and you have a clear sign of whose interests you are working for, because otherwise you can't make a deal and trample say things like. Oh mothers investigations make it hard for me to make a deal. But that's not true at all right. It's the underlined. pattern of shady conduct, they makes it hard to do a deal because You shake hands on an arrangement. You have to build a come back home and below this is a good deal for us and nobody is confident like what Trump is playing for I mean. I think it's worth noting that, if the rush,
goal in March Twenty fifteen, which is when the allegations in the Bettina indictment date back to like if their plan had been We are going to make sure that the next republican President, whoever he is, approaches Russia, in a more hawkish way. It would be a little late, but you could imagine them kind of seeing the foreign policy infrastructure with some ideas there doing a little of indirect support of a few talking heads here and there in a way. That would build more credibility for that as an idea outside of a particular candidate. They didn't do, rightly instead, there going with this like we're going to have an agent whose a gun activist for a higher, into deeds to shit post. For two straight years and I think the weight that clarifies for me, is as little as we know or understand. You know
you believe we don't necessarily need to know everything about the motivations of the american actors. We have a pretty clear sense of what Russia is going for. Rightly in their interference in other elections. There are two primary goals: one is the in hand viability and elections of people who espouse kind of this, trans, national white, nationalist populism and who is just kind of general chaos right. There is the kind of early assessment of the intelligence community that the rest, you, weren't, necessarily working to elect Trump. They were to discredit Hillary Clinton on the assumption that she would win, which Obviously they later like updated once it became clear that could actually maybe when the election? That is a very ambitious thing to understand that, like the goal here isn't necessarily to have somebody to Caen exactly who is in the heads of state of major world powers. It is to have a situation in which d
Creasy is not necessarily fully stood by the people under it and in scenario. The kind of strong men alternative is able to take the world stage with more credibility than it would otherwise have so that the thing I want to add to that is a bit. I think when we talk about motive on both sides We have weirdly like narrow, linear thinking about it, as it always has to be one thing either Donald Trump is being blackmailed by p tape or he's gonna friendly with Lattimer, Poon or whatever, and just I think all human interactions. The motive since relationships, incentives such are complex, and I just do think that, with the Trump Russia access it's just worth, taking seriously the idea that you have an actress here who a lot of different things come together for them, a long period of time, to create a cooperative as for relationship and that in turn creates more cooperative basis for relationship,
Imagine like one of the darker scenarios, Donald Trump, heavily in HAWK overtime, the Trump organist, action to different kinds of russian creditors. so they ve taken about your money from russian banks or or russian individuals in order to keep the the organization. RO during tough times they ve got a lotta sort of, maybe deals on the box. Deals for Russians are investors. They know that vulnerability there, but rather than Vladimir Putin or somebody ever coming to them and saying you know, do what we want, or else the waiting actually experienced said is. There are always a great russian businessman who helped them out in a time of need, and they just like have a bit more trust of them and then of the people they introduce them too. And then, you know again, our sort of in the campaign and Donald Trump assaying nice things about bottom harpoon, because he said pretty good. areas with Russia is enjoyed, is chips era, buncher, Russians, a bell them out. People said good things you're, doing this universe in Moscow and getting all the shit for it from people who doesn't like anyway and now is getting back up, and so he doesn't like the p
attacking them, and he does like whatever Putin any, does like Russians and have helped them out, and now you know he's much more I'm too here theory about. Why would be a good idea for America to connect with russian geopolitics, and maybe he was before or maybe he would have been otherwise. He is much more like motivated reasoning is a powerful thing and so is developing a real, theory around wise intuitions on this are cracked, and meanwhile, this forum establishment, not to mention all these leaders of European Nations and Canada who treat trump with barely disguised, and every time there in a room with him, they don't like em, but why, Pooh in whose Ike runs the only other nuclear mega power and legs is it a real manly dude doesn't like emigrants very much, and you know there's this amazing stringent morning Joe during the campaign where Joe Scarborough Trump, you know Vladimir Putin kid the journalists. I mean this is a brutal dictator, trumps. It yeah belief is a leader, unlike what we have in this country. Among other things, Donald Trump has a lot of respecting an intuitive respect from authority
in strong men, and so there's a lot coming together where Donald chums View of Donald Trump might never ever be, even if its semi true that he somehow- Compromise, russian acid or in any way Russia now said he might just have built. Out of a lot of different parts. A partial, self interested partially. This point, fellow topical, geopolitical idea partially stir an emotionally reactive like connection Russia and similarly Russia to Trump might have never thought much of Donald Trump, you no good to have a famous american businessmen on your side. Eventual running in psychology cause a little bit. Cassie, really don't like Hillary Clinton's, but trying trying to to mess with her and then over time gets bigger and bigger and bigger, and then actually works and one of them. I don't love. The endless focus on motive is that one not sure there ever is a clear answer. Human motivations are complex and multifaceted. They feel different to people than and what they necessarily are. You may look for me
outside and say. Oh this person has leverage over them and from the inside actually the way it felt was it. You felt very far later someone who had helped you out in a tight spot they had shown they were a trustworthy friend and ally, and now, pay in the back and kind. The way you frame it can be very different and illuminating and just evolved into a more and more powerful collaboration overtime. Neither quite realise what the other could do for them in an ongoing way, but as each step gone by and at each point like they ve, really high each other out, like Russia really did help Donald Trump. When the election, Belgium really has been a great out. for Russia's foreign policy on the world stage, and so now they that they really are on some of trumpets, like not bullshitting, he's build a grey, Foundation for American, a friendly relationship with Russia, whether we are comfortable without foundation or that relationship. That's a great and important point a question, but what Opening on the underlying level. Here, like the idea,
Collusion in cooperation and weird levels of trust and Trump clearly filling a deeper lines to put any does even too many american allies, like us. True like that, is clear and closed. We have Evidence on it like, like we decide what we're going to do with that information not continuously be surprised by it ever what? If in twenty thirteen tramp went to Moscow, hide some hookers and this vision, tape at it will have to take a break,
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time to talk about real collusion. Yes, theory in evidence, unemployed, inclusion in the franchise sector by our bee crew. An early ashen fell to add this is your deep state. This is a former Obama chief economist. No, this is a really good, really good paper. I think so. There's a lot of talk, perennially for ass couple years about wages and my wage growth has not been as high as you might think given the low unemployment rate ovens very esoteric theories get mooted for this, but they were add something else, which is what, if employers we have agreements with each other in which they promise not to hire way each other's workers and they know that in most cases this is illegal, but that's not to say it doesn't happen. There are few cases in which employers have been hot with these kind of suitable suggested tat to me is vivid, says like if ox media and the New York Times made a deal that we could have higher from each other. That would be illegal rack. Yes, so that would be illegal in it
happens anyway, and we don't really know how bond force. That is, but they look at a particular case of this, which is that a lot if companies organizes franchise swayed. So Mcdonald's is a big company, but mostly Mcdonald's restaurants. You see are owned by separate franchise owners and so when you get a Mcdonald's franchise, there's a complicated contract and it's like you have to pay me on such and such money you have some flexibility, but your pricing hours, but also certain minimum standards need to live up to these rules about like where you by your plastic, forks from there's this lot, ins and outs to it with these researchers investigate is that fifty eight percent of franchise contracts include a provision that says if I own a Mcdonald's, I can higher away people who work at another guys, Mcdonald's, Burger King Jiffy each in our block are some of the most prominent companies. They name that have Can it deals and that
striking for one thing, because it gets into a legal grey area where You know it's obviously perfectly permitted to say that, like a fox editor cannot poaching worker from a different vocs. Editor right. That's just called running a company but like vocs in the New York Times, definitely cannot have an agreement like that. These franchises have an ambiguous relationship to one another in which purposes of these no poaching agreements. There saying look: it's an internal agreement, but in like a million other scenarios that come before the end of our be, they would say no, no, no. These are completely independent businesses so important, because from a cure, lying perspective, right like who better to staff your New Mcdonald's, then somebody who has experienced literally working at Mcdonald's right, like it,
most obvious kind of hiring to do. You know you really giving up something meaningful when you restrict yourself from making that kind of hiring, but it can be a powerful tool for suppressing wages. And it also means that the labour market is much more concentrated than it looks superficial right that, like One problem with form an illegal collusion ring is that you might need like a huge number of participants right and it's it's hard to get five hundred different. yours to agree. But if you don't really have five hundred different employers, if there actually organized into just for franchises it's a lot easier. The legal collusion creates a foundation for doing illegal collusion. and the whole thing is just like a little under explore like we, don't really know
federal government doesn't appear to put a ton of effort into policing this kind of conduct and its potentially quite bit. So I think it's under explore in its specific and then under export. Also, just generally, I would see the big point this is making is There are within the labour market. Risk frictions on worker bargaining, power and leverage that are often quite opaque, ethically found a really fascinating placed to show it but another one is not can be causes throughout the economy. We have all these different kinds of non can be causes. You worked at robotics firm in your thing. It says you cannot think orkut another robotics from, but of course I could be the first person how you give your raised a lot of people that one reason Silicon Valley succeeded in the way it did is an unlike other places where they did have burgeoning robotics computer, etc, firms and sectors in the seventies, like Boston Cow, Fournier will not enforced, not compete, so not competes. Our legal and California functionally end or lease unenforceable
and so the differ technology players were able to constantly hire people back and forth from the different firms that they worked at without was true and other places, were not competes got enforced. You wanted to leave, but you couldn't in your your job to sit knows he had to go work in a different industry there, peer to be a lot of ISA Mean Matt has focused in the past and occupational licensing, but I dont think batch he considered in a completely separate space, and this I mean it's not about which group you can go to it is about and in many cases whether to an industry at all and as a place, where you can imagine there being a certain amount of left right, convergence on theories of the economy and theories fix economy? This as always struck me as very promising that the liberal parian ideas it Steve tell us and bring glances have put forward. They focus on stuff a lot, but just the idea that workers should have the power to go, get a better job or to end, an industry with relatively little legal barrier, that seems pretty obvious and the degree to which
both that adopted not true and the data which we even know. The degree to which it is not true seems pretty profound I not that those in an important caveat in this paper, which is vague, not know how well or how often or to what extent these provisions are actually enforced I've had the experience of having to deal with a lot of contract negotiations over the past year different years, I've done different jobs and when we set up box like few remember, going to get contracting on that and contracts do this quality of outlining a very severe code of behaviour that then the way People Box ACT and practice often quite a bad. So I'm always little careful saying that the way a contract is written is how an entire industry will work, but often time away contract has written is how an industry which works out. So that would be a place where I'd love, to see micro level, data talking to from workers I mean you could do studies of randomly asking eight hundred different workers from different kinds of France,
as we know, have these and place to see what their experience with it has been. Like, I think the thing about and as someone here when I am done taking this episode is going to go back into a union contact negotiator. One of the things that I have learned from this process is that that dynamic described, is absolutely true, and it means that the people who actually read the contract are acting more constrained ways. The main necessarily need to theirs without kind of talking shop on union stuff too much like a law, of concerns in this sector about like who owns your ideas right and As someone you read the agreement that I signed when I came to vocs I've kind of assume that, like box, owns all of my ideas, it turns out that, had I not read that I might have come away with a different assumption and different expectation for what I could do without kind of going through the company and so in the,
the franchise is. I think that it is reasonable to assume that there in be rule following side of that spectrum, because, as you guys talked about there is so much that goes into being a franchise ii, it is a more formal relationship with the corporate parent, so even if workers themselves, lake are gonna, fall along a spectrum and how much there eating it. The franchise e, whose actually the one doing the hiring is probably on likely to fall on that side that said, though. The really Just thinking about raising the paper right now is that we actually are coming off a week where seven major employers agreed to stop enforcing these clauses, including the dawn. Its Carl's Junior about two things, thanks to an agreement from the West in state attorney. General has been fighting on this part of the broader trend of democratic state attorney, General's kind of doing liberal policy making, and
Donald, which was one of the change that was involved in here, had apparently already agreed not to enforce those clauses in its contracts and its now like making that legally binding. But between that and the fact that, even though we ve legal agreement is only if specific to Washington State, but the chains involved are all agreeing not to do it period. That says to me that the key Chinese themselves are realising either that the tide is turning away from them, or this is no longer to their benefit, conjure up in a one quick thing about joke away, one of them I wonder about these agreements- and I think that that I didn't know what you just said about Mcdonald's. But it's really interesting is when a gallant red net in it. I thought that's good wool from Mcdonalds. so it doesn't franchise that is more profitable franchise or is opening up in a more profitable area, and you need but who know how to work in a franchise to set it up, and so your willing, like, because a market will bear it to offer them more money, like that's in theory,
like that's how the thing is supposed to work like the price signals are supposed to actually like move that the best talent to the places where the best talent is most productive, and there are lots of things like this that are done to make the lives of companies or franchisees easier, but are not necessarily better that it that a certain amount of friction in and what can even feel chaotic can be got some was saying earlier that you can't just poach within a company from different divisions. I've had some experience without the Washington Post, where I ended up sort of unusually in a negotiation between the posting Newsweek on that Look any worked out fine, but I remember thinking, then, that what was company. Achieving aside from like not having managers, complain that someone else, wanted one of their employees alike was actually better. Was it better that they had made a blanket rule that one division could try to attract and employ away from another division, like yes item We recognise that it's an
waiting for the people who run these companies to then have an editor or manage or come to you and complain about what an editor manager in another division is doing. It's like one like easy way to make your life more convenient to stop it from happening, just as it would be nice like, for you know, people who run guppies it like stop other people from taking that their workers, but we know the real economy- that's not a better thing, and it is in any way avi streets a better thing for companies either. So here is my evidence, free speculation, but I think that we need to have more inquiry into this because I strongly believe rigorous investigation is going to show that legal or possibly tacit employer collusion is incredibly widespread and that, like textbook economic models of labour market are come fleetly than I about, like an editor, I used to know who we were just talking actually about people in the business and
he mentioned. Someone was like. I would love to hire her, but I can't- and I said why- and he said well because He works for so and so and I say what what do you mean and he's like what a friend of mine. I can't do that to him and so there wasn't even over here, that's crazy, but there wasn't even an agreement right right, as we like implored implore collusion outside it goes up. The brink of being a gentlemen's agreement between friends to not poach each other. But to be clear, he wasn't even saying to me that he had an explicit agreement with his friend not to poach, but just that they were friends, so you wouldn't do it right I don't have an agreement to like not leave stinky trash on my neighbors lawn. Like I just don't write you, do rude things to your friends. poaching, employees is rude, and so
if there's an arms length relationship, you might do it. But a lot of people are social friends with their peers, and I think tat Surely, if you were to look at like smaller towns right like in a town six restaurants? Do the people the owners of those six restaurants regard each other as fierce competitors who they are like constantly trying to get each other's best line, cooks away from or are they friends who and the same church or participate in the same community charity functions and like would not grew each other over right, and you know not everybody. Losing in communities like that, but that you think about that the old there was a Silicon valley, hiring cartel that got busted up right and the reason it got. Busted up is that they had too much paper on right like people know where this conference circuits in technology
and a million other industries like their people, go to a great deal of effort till I get to know other people who were similar to them and is a very powerful psychological impulse that I think, like Billy inhibits hiring you just a perfect mirror image of the monologues Azra had going into the end of the Russia segment of this podcast that, like things, that from the outside to be a shady unethical or illegal like underhand relationship between two people in full. From the inside. Look like this Person is my friend and has behaved warmly toward me and therefore I am going to behave worldly toward them, and I think that both these are true and powerful dynamics and also explain why you know the quest that as your raised, but why this isn't a nexus for liberal Terry and are left right policy cooperation is because people who sympathise, naturally with employers who like think themselves as protecting the interests of business and to think that business owner, who are you no good people who
the economy run and that workers, when they try to adopting adversarial attitude toward employers. Are you trying to slow down the wheels of the economy. This kind of uh yeah, maybe, ideally, you would not have non competes illegal in the sands right. You wouldn't have no franchise poaching laws, but in practice that, where you're going to spend your energy, because that would be hurting. besides the you with identify weapons, just there's no particular reason, you know if public and policymakers in both of these cases, in both with Russia and employer? Commissioner going well if Have the power? Why not use that power? I don't particularly see any reason why we should shoot ourselves in the foot by taking a stand. in principle, then you're not going get anywhere. Even if, in theory, you can get them to agree that it would be a bad
the thing for Russia, too, you know hack the server of a political party or a bad thing for an employer not to be able to hire an employee from another franchise, collusion everywhere collusion everywhere is ever. Thank you for colluding with me to produce this episode interview. Anything at all costs involved. Has you gonna be great this year? Yes, we hope that you all but collude with us, because we ve has been nominated by this year's people's choice, progress towards and you can vote for our show for free by don't you pike S towards dot com or by tapping the Lincoln. The show notes wouldn't ends on Tuesday July thirty percent. Do not wait what what was the Europa podcast words dotcom though there now to cast your votes for the clue, thus to rake this package will be this despair. It's all aboveboard resides you began. The integrity of the past of words shall not be questioned by any means.
Stand up next year with a great adversary and disparaging it's the most shameful moment in Prague casting so its thanks for. Listening to our engineer, Griffin, Tanner thanks. As always, we will be back on Friday.
Transcript generated on 2021-09-12.