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Trump's budget has landed, and it's terrible


A tanned and rested Ezra joins Matt and Sarah to talk budget, auto-enrollment in health care, and some eye-popping research on zoning.Links:Sarah's piece on auto-enrollmentJeff Stein's piece on reactions to Paul Ryan's agenda The wonderful Weeds Facebook group

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
This absurd, the weeds sponsored by the great courses plus sign up today at the great courses plus dot com, slash weeds, also sponsored by helix sleep, good, helix leaped up, I'm slash weeds and get fifty dollars off your order and by square space used offer coat weeds. Check out for ten percent off your first purchase you think, and we certainly now at the weeds is now this is upon us. Hello, welcome to another episode of the weeds and a box media podcast network, Matthew, Iglesias as recline, is back from vacation. I am back. He is looking very time. I've a beard, have a beer and me not a full beer, but think of occasion. Bearded economy is his hand rested ready. Sarah is not as rested, but also ready to pack still raid upon Ray her severe score and ready to tell us about the booming labour market of the Trump era.
There's some job creation happening here at box that come. We are looking for a editor for three. month, position with weeds and the wild arbe spin off podcast on how policy affects real people, and you can learn more details about the position If you go to vocs media com, slash careers, look for the audio editor position, and with what's your elegant, vocs media dot com, slash career. I remember it if you would like to have your board of your editor in chief Travers, pretty border budget. Intelligent audio, or if you weeds, as there are interested I'm sure there are some audio fanatics out, there would be a great fit for that. So look that up if you're interested You also my want to check out the latest episode of Ad Todd Vander, Worth's podcast. I think your injured I M very excited for this one year, his his guests as weak, as is our gangs. The creator of master of now with disease and sorry, he was our right of reports and recreation,
humor magazine. He wherefore in college was fucking hilarious. You, like you, really know Eleni eggs career, but yet we weren't colleges, since I am I firstly, with the national employment was at another one, but that the Harvard the harder than put its- and I called the national anthem net- that's a different thing. Ok, anyway, bringing guy hilarious guy, I'm really looking forward to hearing his interview. Tat is a great show. mastermind. If you haven't seen it second season is great eventual etched at the small end. What we want you to do is done what I think your interesting you for the mouth Was a gun? Tat gets you want. That is contacts one way or the other. Anyway, I mean you should listen to this show you should watch his show, but you should definitely download Todd, show its great great and we show great gassed. I'm looking forward. but are we talking about it? I'm looking forward to this episode of the weeds. We got some feedback from the Facebook group. People are looking for. The more walk, a little less you now espionage. scandal, a kind of staff so we're
we're here to deliver that for you, we ve got a white paper, one of my favorite white papers. It came out on my birthday. It was it. A great many very favour, as it was amazing we're going, talk about auto enrollment in health insurance, which is a fascinating subject and we're going to start off by talking about President trumps budget proposal, which came out this week, wild as an trump was in Saudi Arabia, and seems to be very much the brainchild of his budget director mulvaney, and it is eight. It's really like a horrifying document from from top to buy and their sort are two ways you can. You can look at this and indifferent things attract different piece of attention. It releases usually get assigned to cut up budget want journalists to cover in the first place, We got a lotta coverage initially of the fact that this this, like who trillion dollar double counting problem in the budget, which budgetary people are very focused,
it's really serve embarrassing and the White House. You walk through the Look, I guess you understand what actually is going on with the double accounts. There exists a few different possible interpretations of what's happening, but long story. Short, the budget balances, allegedly at the end of the tunnel, window and one of the reasons it balances at the end of the ten year window is that they claim the policy measures that they are adopting, including their tax reform plan. Will increase growth enough degenerate, two trillion dollars in extra revenue. So then you look like what What's this magical growth, creating tax plan and says nothing, it just says: there's a deficit neutral tax reform plan, but then there's been this completely separate dialogue about the tax reform plan happening in Washington, where Gary Code for the national, Mama Council, Steve Nutrient from Treasury. Been saying that the tax plan will be paid for
in part through, assuming that the tax cuts increase growth rate. So it's the growth is being counted. Twenty seven, the first place it's making the tax revenue neutral, but then the revenue, A tax reform is generating all this extra rights that are put it otherwise. I understand it because I want to make sure I get this goes on the disco backroom vacation. I feel very confused by everything. What they have is a tax cut did, if you just do the math doesn't matter, She said: oh no, don't worry, the growth is gonna, be there. Then they gave us a budget that, if you just do them, it doesn't add up, and then they said, oh no hoot, the growth from the tax cuts is going to make it up, so they just have put in the growth from tax it which, by itself, not happen. I have a lot of issues about how their counting the sort of magic tax cuts growth so like it is a math air built on. But the fantastical assumption that might never happen Yankees. the growth projections themselves are ridiculous. To be honest
and there's no way any this happen, but even if it did their counting it twice as theirs different, they ve come with Different versions of explanation for this is Steve. Minutiae, said in a interview with John Harwood when he was like face for this. He just at all this. Preliminary document, I dont believe there's any. Let me that that I thought gave way to get em. There's no explanation: they're, not good it doing this work. but as a big man. It just seems like what happened. Is that mulvaney was tasked with the budget and another group we're task with the tax plan and is convenient for both groups of people to claim magic growth beans, so they just both did and no Care is because they don't I've been out of deep in fundamental level like nobody in this operation actually cares I do want to say, is a whole like other way of looking at this budget, which is There's a story in the New York Times about how public health experts believe that the cuts
to international public health programmes and include in this budget will lead to the deaths of a million people in Sub Saharan Africa. The budget also cuts Medicaid by fifty percent. About. Seventy one billion dollars out of disability insurance so we're talking about massive food stamps Yeah, whither, you're, looking at the domestic poor or the global poured, the global poor being poorer than the harm is even more palpable but terrifying sort of humanitarian consequences of this budget. and it really funds nothing- I mean it is maintained. Means better care. It doesn't cut Social Security retirement benefits, It increases defence spending, some honestly, not that I put in social security is cutting dissipate, cuts that disability payments. Here I keep their retirement benefits, but the
taxes alive in the context of a country. Whose population is aging might mean get emails and our own could servers like. How can you say there cutting something when the number is going up and- and the reason is that the share of the population that is elderly and therefore eligible for Medicare benefits is rising steadily over time and also the whilst providing health care to a single elderly person is rising overtime. So, if you maintain the structure of the programme where all elderly people get their medical bills covered, that is a growing wedge overtime, which I think is fine dislike. You can't go back in time and change the demographic structure, but it means that if you keep that call stand and you cut taxes a lot and you increase military spending even a little. You ve gotta, like demolish everything else. And that's what this budget does like. There's no way
trillion dollar infrastructure programme. Instead, their cunning infrastructure trump the campaign trail said that to really fixed point We need America, but we needed is this like big voucher programme, and you know why did we need that? Who knows? But but that's what Trump said we needed to do something but he was actually in. This budget is like a tiny pilot programme because his twenty billion dollars to spend and magic program or anything nutrition is cut. Let abatement programmes that ban Carson said were valuable and he wouldn't cut their getting caught, everything everything is in a way third way. One of things we saw during the campaign was candidate Trump trying to position himself as a very, different from the rest of established and there's this interview he gave really early in the day painted him before he announced they said you know if I ever run for president, I'm never going to cut medicate, and you need me point of saying you know, I'm not like other Republicans is just not a programme. All cut
Things we see happening. This budget is extra, goes well beyond, even where, like conservator status quo is on how much we should cut Medicaid like businesses medicate cuts far, deeper than I've. Seen any other conservatives propose an end to its? Not just that he is islamic, is taken. Like that, the party line and said you know we're gonna cut, medicated breeze, really like taken up the party line and like put it on, on steroids at this point, to note, with suggesting nearly fifty percent cut to the programme and really- going. A hundred percent away from you know that idea that here as you know, even on you know, Obamacare to use that I've cover everybody and then we're gonna Sybil report later today. That will certainly say he is not going to cover everybody now cut Medicaid the biggest medicatrix cuts is seen proposed a budget and in others can have two ways. I think about this budget document one is you know it's not really going anywhere in Congress
It's not like this is the point. We're Congress takes it up in debates it there's a political reporter. Burgess ever got a tweet about reporting yesterday, where he said he would go up to centres and say is this debt on arrival in ITALY? S needs new to say dead on arrival from my story, because that's kind of how this is received, At the same time, it is a statement of values. Kind of like what the administration prioritizes. So, even though its not a document that will kind of move for word on capital hell. It does seem important because it tells us of what the white stands for and what it stands for his very different than the things that trumps he's just a job and on that real quick, it's funny. Yes, it tell us what the weather stands for a line from Joe Biden where he says it, dont tell me what you said: and for show me your budget and I'll. Tell you what you stand for, which is true like budgets, where the choice is actually get made, and what you see here is that Donald Trump I mean look at this
and as far as I can tell, Donald Trump does not know. What's in it, had nothing to do with. It does not care. It breaks virtual Every promises made a cut social security when he said he wouldn't do that. It cuts Medicaid when he said he wouldn't do it and it also it violates, were Donald Trump said about his own relationship with a poor. It doesn't include the voucher program that he said is what going to do to solve poverty. There's just nothing in the way. Donald Trump presented himself in the economic populism. He said that he had and he said that he represented which survives in this budget now it appears to have happened. Donald Trump, who genuinely doesn't care like. I think we're seeing in this sort of dollar job is currently flying back from his his big, cheaper. Through the Middle EAST, after being touching orbs in leaving where he and his he's gonna belt. I was gonna Peltier, Hooker and Donald Trump, enjoy being a ceremonial head of state. He's not that bad at that but all these created. It pays him of that bad at it and he lay
sort of getting clap in. He enjoys getting big metals from you know, like Saudi Arabia. He's not good at being president he's not he's not enjoy the details of this. We outsourcing them and when he got in mulvaney with somebody who is nothing like Donald Trump, he was a member of the tea party. He was a very conservative member of the house. He represented a wing of the Republican Party that Donald Trump beat in the republican primary. But then dollar chapters put them a party into his budget direct role, and now you get this budget, the thing everything it is interesting about this in a sort of a long term sense of what it means for Trump ISM, one of the really big problem so Trump ISM is it. Nobody is creating a coherent version of it. Donald Trump doesn't care to create it sea banning noticing care or doesn't have the power to create it and buddy else in the administration, as far as we know even believes in it not as a whole, stick waiter, individual people who don't like emigrants of their individual people, who feel this or that way about a programme, but this
illustration does not have anybody who wants to create an ideologically rigorous policy agenda around trumpets, amid is a huge problem. Now, when you have an economic popular signal the way this tends to work in other countries. you have the sort of socially nationalist economic pocket, candidate run and what they typically do is they say as trumpeted in the campaign. He look a huge problem. Is it we ve had all these people coming. From outside of our borders. Are we have all these people here? Who don't represent? Who we are ass, a country they ve been sucking up all the benefits and here I am running domini- give them less romantic, keep them out and I'm going to- and this is really important. you more like. That was the Trump message I am not going to cut Medicare. I'm not gonna cut social security. You're gonna get more for me because you deserve it because you ve been there screwed all these years, that's how we're gonna make Amerika great again we're gonna make a government works for you. The true Americans and Donald Trump is:
doing that he is not creating good he's, he's not giving anybody, except for the very rich anything he's just taking things away from people that is not a smart rather g? It's not him. They'll make him or popular. If any of this ever passed, he's pulling beneath forty percent. Now it's not gonna win him any new friends prettily when people begin feeling the effect of these cuts but really not the theory on which he ran like he ran, is an economic populist who is going to blow up the republican parties consensus, where it sort of went to small government, because as putting together rich people who wanted lower taxes and the folks who fell, governments helping the wrong people and he said fuck the rich people, I'm anaemic, The government helps you. He said I'm in a race taxes on the wretch. I'm not gonna hurt your programs, in fact he just Alienated more people is adding small government conservatism too nationalism men to some degrees, xenophobia and I dont see that as a winning political play.
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They show, for example, that you know Amber's assassination of Alexander Hamilton. It really highlights how the constitution wants to protect the liberties, even if the people who who meant to bring it harm that that this idea of liberty was sort of it was new to the political world at the time of the eighteenth century. But it was really fundamental foundational to what the founders at about. I'm sure you sign up for the great courses places a listener, the weeds he can watch this or any of their courses for free for one month by using our special euro v great courses plus com, slash weeds, get your free month, you're going to love it sign up today the great courses plus dot com site, weeds. That's the great courses plus tat come slash, weeds. This budget is like crazy in many ways, but there's no more like other way to make it work. Click on the one hand, Trump is violating a lot of either split. It promises he made or short of implicit commitments that he made on the other
and it's very much. This is an exercise that was dumped. It mulvaney s lap with the constraints that you don't he couldn't touch Medicare he wasn't supposed to touch social security. He like talk trump To the idea that SS die is not really social security or something that permission it at that, but like, because I'm a hill or single. This is dead. On arrival there, both publicly They will agree that taxes should be cut I agree that military spending should go up. So this is what happened? you know now you could squeeze the balloon differently. You could go more and Ryan. The direction and cut spending on the government operations a little bit less and cut spending on elder. people's health care considerably more. I dont know that that would be any more. Popular option like the whole sticking point on this whole thing,
the insistence that as America ages and The government continues to be responsible for a large share of healthcare finance that we are going to keep taxes low and even make them lower. Like that's, that's a crazy idea like there's. No there's no way to do that I I hate some of these kind of analogies but like when you think about any kind of system, like if their commitments you have made and the cost of making those commitments is going to go up in the future. A very predictably and like we ve known for decades that this baby boom contours is happening. You need more money, not less money. And I don't know you know, I mean you'd see a fascinating thing. It's like
you, can win elections apparently time and again by is like saying that you have some magic way to make this all work out, but they don't like they don't have a magic way to make it work out. Donald Trump doesn't have magic way to make a workout. Paul Ryan doesn't have a magic way to make it work out and Mitch. Mcconnell doesn't have one either and they keep coming up with sort of rhetorical strategy seems to like get away. This. You ve seen a lot of this in the healthcare debate too. There's like a lot of emphasis being placed on trial to avoid directly taking the hit for yanking benefits out from under people other than the very poor. but there's just like there's no there's no way to make it happen and at some point either. Something like this budget is going to happen to America or else Republicans are going to have to change their bedrock ideological prince, because I think we ve seen in that light.
Large swathes of the american people. Just aren't gonna go like vote for Democrats and say: oh, I love You know big city elite with their lesbian abortions and, and you know, no guns or whatever their just like their committed to electing Republicans. They want republic to do something different from republican budgeting, but but republican so far, you know they're not budding on that, but I think there's also openness to dealing with, so that it is a dream. I was just back in Kentucky the last few days in the same area where I was either this year are talking about. Obamacare rallies about four trump and more things like that. Only speaks the point you are making, people understood data they Rama. Karen, always I talk to you. They understood that, like that bill would not be good for that matter it would lose out, but at the end of the day, is kind of like lime, Republican, never republican and light at the end of the day, be The trade offs are that their publicans are the party that represents me- and maybe I get screwed on this deal. But, like you know, in the grants
the things that I think that is the type of person who should represent the zero. which was kind of like an interesting wake up call the obvious Don't think this area in South eastern Kentucky, which is like relight like this, is I'll get like swing district. This is an area that either just looked up. Yesterday has had a republican Congress person. Since nineteen sixty three the last time a Democrat ran against him. You got twenty two percent of the votes that this is not like an area. is contested, but it interesting to understand why It is not contested. Even with these policies, I would say I don't I think there is a growing openness in their public party, and you see this with the sway that their freedom caucus has to either not holding to the commitments that we have had in the past, that the Freedom caucus, it will say they are nothing not honest about like what it is that they want to do, and they are ok with fewer people having helped them I don't think it's something,
Paul Ryan wants to talk about you. He wants to talk about everyone having access to health care, but you do have this kind of growing and more influential wing of Europe. Looking party that that is more okay, whizzing like yes, there are trade offs and like one on one side of that trade off a bunch of them. And this one is that your point about the the very republican districts. It is true, even in a wave election, what is salient about almost every congressional action ever? Is it virtually every income it gets reelected like even when you have a wave election and out of four hundred and thirty five seats, forty flip. That means the others. didn't, write, hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of seats in a moment in american politics is pretty stream enough to create a wave did not flat so for them we're just people don't change our minds, weeds us and our should ask themselves how often they change their minds about like the fundamental questions of american politics. Answers, probably not that often so everything you're saying there is true. That said,
so pretty interesting Pisa on Unbox from Jeff Stein yesterday, I think it was and he's been paying pretty close attention to the Montana and Georgia special actions right, Georgia and We are seeing in pulling right now, really really really big ships. It doesn't mean the Democrats are gonna, win either seat, but boasting swirl them with Georgia? I believe was won by the Republican by twenty one or twenty seven points where the guy the Democrats ran against Tom Price in that seat turns out to literally not exist. May I say here was a footing wasn't a couple years back. The light was no it's the reason this became a target is a trump only one, the district, chapter one the narrowly the republic in the district had wanted by car. Have you been in simile in this Montana seat, it's not been close, racer either now we're seeing polling saying that the democratic in Georgia is up a little bed again, the it's only a little bit he could still lose.
Hannah again the pulling we're seeing is suggesting a much much closer race and people of thought. And what, Stein said visit. If you go and look at what the Democrats are saying in these races, they are now running against Trump on Russia. They are not run against Trump on corruption or troubling espionage, Trump. On Michael Flynn. They are running against public health care bill. They are running answer Publican, but they are running against Ryan ISM hear what you say and mad about that. There is in an answer to this sort of dilemma. Republicans have created, but one of the thing, that I think is important about. That. Is this dilemma they ve created this budget dilemma they ve created is an incredibly unpopular policy they really don't have a popular answer. So what they risk Trump ran and said. I not agree right, like I literally just disagree and trap had no record. He had not voted for the Rhine budget in the past. He did not not written his own budgets so bike, maybe this guy disagrees. if you marry the unpopular parts, trumpets em to the unpopular parts of their public and agenda.
That's a really bad place to be an. I just don't want her to forget, like when you listen to Donald Trump or the members of his administration, or even Republicans in Congress. Talk about this kind of budget there is such a breathtaking disengagement from the people, who will be heard, As you said, when you hear Paul Ryan talk about the republican Healthcare bill, he wanted to talk about universal access, which his bill also does not do not even close like is not access to not be able to afford health insurance, but here don't want to say. I just think it would be better if we had more uninsured people, but the government, but that money instead to cutting taxes to rich people write like I'm disquiet with that. and similarly Donald Trump Envy Mulvaney in all these people will not come out and say that this will not say they will not face up at all
the human cost of what they are attempting to do here, and this is something really awful about that. I mean ok, like you want to make these cuts. You think you have a reason to do it. fine, but we were not even getting that reason because not even making whatever the real argument is here right. There are people who believe Phil Soft, the government should just be smaller. Philosophically is now the government should be doing. There are people who have, I think, very shot theories about economic growth and other things You see a little bit about in the budget, but not in a way that would help these people on food stamps. You just hearing I I've been watching this scores and you're, not even hearing the positive case for this budget is just to amass shop of the extra caught. They dont haven't thought through mathematics mistakes and then, in a thing that I think is particularly fucking. Galling evocative trumps, child care proposal.
so a mashup of like really really really hurting poor people really not tat king, just like the basic rules of budgeting, and you can economics and math seriously. But then the President's All this child has an idiotic attic interest in a relatively regressive land to help working women afford child care which, in the context of up another kind of budget, is fine, because she's into it. That's in there too for two billion dollars and like there's something all that put together this sick, like you not take it legally or people's lives and you're not taking even remotely seriously differently our different, I'm different, you're different. We don't like all try to squeeze into one pair pants or something it would be ridiculous. But so much of the mattress world works like that, because up until now, a truly customize mattress, as was like five or ten thousand dollars it, and nobody has that money. So he'll sleep is the answer you go to heal, except I come here a few simple,
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an idea that is getting even more serious deal with thousands of five day to this is this idea. that I was honestly a little bit surprised when I heard it was kicking around in republican circles it something that has come up The advantages of the Wall Street Journal recently as a topic that conversation in the Senate Working Group on Healthcare and bases the idea, is that the government should automatically in Raul anyone who is uninsured into a low cost health insurance plan, which You know, I did said Roman does mandatory anyway? What do you get rid of it visual mandate essentially and then you'd make it an opt out so if a lot of research suggests Otto Unroll, really increased participation in a lot of programs like if you are on earlier workers into a for one k, you're going to see a lot fewer people taking that pro active tap to opt out of it. So the idea is that you know we get rid of the individual mandate and we are
is it with this Otto unroll feature where yes, people could opt out if they want, but most people will end up sticking. that and it's an idea- that's got in much more traction on public inside than I would have expected. I would have thought- and I was wrong- that conservatives would look at this policy and say well what or does the government have like signing up for health insurance plan? They never wanted, and there really is. That reaction, as long as there is an opt out clause Republican seem to have got in on board and the type of insurance people be enrolled into is no kind of the products that A lot of conservatives believe will make the healthcare system work better. These kind of high deductible low premium products which are not going to offer very robust coverage, but the idea you don't talk to launch a child who busily advised Governor Romney during his campaign and his argument. What
Well, you know we're going to protect people from financial ruin like that. Is the goal of this weren't we're not going to get them high deductible. We talk. So this is the great question. So these are the two big questions about Otto enrollment that are kind of out there, one I think as more valid in the other. The one is like how the hell did you do this sick? We don't have national registry of uninsured people. If we don't like when you ought to unroll everyone in your company under foreign k, you know who works for you or when you oughta, unroll people onto Medicaid, you have information income. That tells you whose eligible we do not have like database of uninsured people. So there's this big logistical obstacle: I've been whom I don't think that's a real the right off. The plan like there are many things that are difficult to do. It is hard to create income based tax credits, but Obamacare did that but the question you raise as think that is like the key question and something I talk to John about you know what is the point given rolling people and health insurance if it has the genome, if someone's
in thirty thousand dollars and their unrolled into a plan with a fifteen thousand dollar deductible, like at the end of the day. What are we giving them. Are we just giving like free premium money to help them It's. I am old enough to remember when Donald Trump promised that any plan he signed with lower deductibles for people, I really suggest people read Sarah's beside a roman which we will link to in the in the show notes here, but I am worried. Auto enrollment is a distraction of sorts that the beyond the only thing that matters here whether using auto enrollment or an individual mandate, is, are they cities enough to give people helping? It actually does. We want health insurance to do right now not seen any evidence that sent Republicans are moving towards having that. But I worry a little bit dead this ATO and Roma thing that it is more serious policy right. It is a way I actually believe that Obama endorsed it in two thousand and eight amidst when he was against an individual mandate. I believe that his campaign expressed
openness or I don't or possibly there is an automobile stuff on the employer, side and Obamacare idea that, like liberals, are open ITALY, her real Paul the idea that Austrian is as it just continues to be, an health insurance. Are you buying people something worth having by and it It is if you, honourable people, the garbage it's just away funneling cash to private, ensure sake? It's a stupid thing to do across a bunch of money. People still go bankrupt, several promised Republicans made to their base its. Not what people want. But then using while we still got all these people covered in these things. They, like that's, not good. I wasn't. thing about the history that that kind speaks to that's the first time. The shows up in the debate, as in this plan that Senator bouquet, said he publishes a few years ago when things are notable but his plan, as it does not repeal the Obamacare tax, as I could keep those and plays a key the funding source? It does not save any money but basically changes right whose getting money- and you know it
talked a lot about this. Here is very clearly. decided one roll scheme. It would not work what the house tax credits, they are too small. You cannot buy people real, insured, You have to bump up the tax credits. Buddy think so you're. Seeing like this grows out of a plan that has a lot more revenue behind it- and I think there is a very real question- is- workable idea. If you want to try, can bring this idea into a plan with a lot fewer revenue sources. It's also, I mean. I think you see in this hold bade right, there's something like funding, ITALY down about the structure of the existing affordable care act. That is just being we. complicated, he write like if the premise of your system is it we're going to get everybody into privately provided help. Insurance and that you are going to minimize the taxpayer cost of that by
forcing middle class people to cough up premiums rather than payroll taxes. You have to make people by the insurance right like there was this whole debate Obama. In the campaign like he didn't want to have an individual mandate because it was unpopular and then went Democrats were putting this far group. Guess what the individual mandate its unpopular. So then they'd like a move. this before, but they watered down the dual mandate to the point where, like it is not in fact mandatory and lots of people don't sign up and ever since implementation began. We ve had tv adds to try to get people to sign up. We ve had outside sponsored groups doing recruiting to try to get built Zeinab when Trump. When we had a controversy about, there may be cancelling the ads. We have blogs that track,
I see a sign up, and we regard that is like a scorecard like this is working. This is not working now we have a republican idea. It's like it's very possible that, like a stew, Poorly implemented, auto enroll scheme will work better than a poorly implemented mandate scheme. But, like it's, it's ridiculous, like if the idea is to make everybody sign up so that the average will be lower. Like you have to make everybody sign up. You know, I'm not sure. If one guy doesn't sign up like that's fine, but you have to make a like a good faith effort at and then you get to my work. Did that seem shitty to people. You can go to jail for not buying a private companies, health insurance, so then the whole street unravels like we could let people sign up for it. Public option whose payment rates were linked to Medicare we could call it Medicare
automatically enroll you in medics like Medicare, you could opt out of it in favour of a private plan which we could call Medicare advantages and like we have this work for people who are over sixty five, it could work for people who are forty five, you know, and then I become frustrate are you getting at because you have this, you have this growing Bernie Sanders awaiting. That is like what need to do. Is tomorrow, cancel every health insurance programme in America and well everybody in a thing we're gonna call Medicare for all, but instead of having the actual structure of actual better care It's also going to have comprehensive dental benefits and no premiums and, like all these other things and costs of seventy trillion dollars, but, like there's an actual, you could work it out. You know like they're. There you could create an exchange so that people who get Health insurance to their employers, like don't have disruption, could as one widens old bill had. Then you,
been. The exchanges up to employers like after three years, or something like that, like you, could maintain like what liberals, I think correctly see, as a good way to provide health insurance to people and then, take seriously the practical challenges of creating a path to that that doesnt wreck everybody's lives, but instead we are like spinning our wheels around how to make this like versus sign up thing work when it like it doesnt work. So there is a quoth the king at yesterday from Majority leader Senate Majority, leader Mitch. Mcconnell he was asked. Was he going to try to work with any Democrats? Healthcare plan him? He said no I've noticed and working people dont want to solve the problem and added Often true, I think bitch bacchanals tends to be an usually the honest about things and in it, So you're saying here, man Republican
have not been very up front about how they define the problem. But clearly the problem is not what have said the problem is, which is not enough. People have health insurance in the people, do have it have overly high deductibles and are not getting their value for their money. The promised some combination of they want to repeal the. Taxes and Obama care they don't like Obama care, they don't think the government should be paying that much more people's health in German there's a whole set of China was alleys. Labour force participation I don't know I really don't buy this particular argument, given other things going on in there in their proposals- If you really wanted to front load the question of labour force participation in your political agenda. You would not start here just like flatly. That said to your point, one thing I think it's worth noting: is it an individual mandate, an auto enrollment rock she too few kids, great or not that great pace they great together,
that's no reason you wouldn't combine them. It would help the individual mandate in Obamacare right now. If you create an auto enrollment dimensions of the planet. In fact, I think of you had elected Hillary Clinton and she had come out the package of technocratic fixes. You would have seen things like somewhat more subsidies, auto unroll like that would have been on the table. So do I want to note- because one thing, I think, really does happen here- is it Publicans used to make the same art with making around auto enrollment for the individual mandate, and there making that same argument up until roughly June July, two thousand and nine and then in as of two thousand and you had the tea party. Anti Obamacare protests begin Republicans all their public into. At that point,. supported individual mandates, abandoned individual mandates and now a kind of searching for some other policy. They could do some version of what an individual mandate does they're coming round to Otto enrollment, but these are not even replacing for each other, you would ideally put these things together to try to increase.
Discussion of the young and healthy and the system. I think this struck. of putting them together. Thou kind of goes back to your earlier point. Is it's just really hard to come up with a robust health plan that fits in what the government is going to be so even out like the lowest income levels, like what say, you are in a hundred fifty percent the poverty line which polychrome twenty thousand dollars or so you're still expected. It is still expected to contribute something like pay. I don't now like thirty. Four Dollars a month fear premium fanatic, most didn't legit say we're not going to we're, not at the point where we are going to unrolled people into a plan that costs money, in Switzerland, are super happy to do that. Their say that grown carnage, your wages, if you don't pay like you're being signed up- and that is how this is going to work here- you go to jail in Switzerland. Eventually I play hold this, but I dont know if it's ok, Reinhardt has told me this fact. I don't pay your taxes in the United States. You will go to jail of Angela Advice, guess
Why are you they are very excited at any time too? I guess I know they can garnish your wages like. That is the first step either. I don't know if you have your unemployed, but the aid not seem like. We are at the place where, like we are going to enforce such a mandate. At this point, and then the question are we willing to pump up the two things are we willing to bump up the funding where we don't even ask people to pay? We just like unroll them into a plan or are we okay with people having like less robust health insurance, and I think that's where you see kind of the political divide where you'd see if it is a clear demonstration like well, let's just pump up the fund, for some people. But if you look at China, where the conservatives are going worth and Republicans are going, it's more like it's. Ok, if it's a plan that has like you know percent actuarial value, meaning that it only covers. On average half of the Israelis costs,
and I'm better Emily curious to see this develop? My understanding is that like the sun, it, but you know- and some other folks are looking to get some kind of estimate. on that. I, like how much you need to actually paid an insurance plan that you would consider health insurance and I think it's gonna turn out to be very expensive and its right to sink be how to unroll idea, because they do things like that. the compelling argument against this, and you know I think this is is where someone like Lonnie would agree with me. Like it. insurance plan that covers twenty percent of the cost of what is the point that I dont where they draw the line, though it like what is real health and and and what is like just not enough coverage TED to consider and actual played about how the Medicaid Cliff is gonna. Like look in this context where you like just below the poverty line. You like your work and hard. You tinker you kids and it's like while, Ellie Psych. If somebody gets sick Collect Agnes who the doktor the next year, like you, get up. Seventy five
certain our rate? Is he like? Okay? This is good, but kind like you know, get some more food and you get sick and seen the doktor, and it's like. Oh now, you need me hundreds without rights go away. Why and it's about you know, cause your your medicating I, but I thought I was ATO enrolled in this- Eight new trump care plan, a vague, now didn't actually medical care Unless you know, you're like limbs, are chapter flagging de Ruby. Terrible like it's a is a very like auto enrollment is a sound technical strategy for increasing, assign ups right like butter, really in the context of a weak individual mandate, week. Individual mandate, plus auto enrollment, would be very, very powerful right, like if you had to affirmatively, opt out most people just wouldn't because people are late. see and then, especially if the opt out was like. Are you sure
You want to opt out of this health insurance card is you're gonna happen. Pay us like four hundred out right now to lose your health insurance in black. They does a bad idea, because it is in fact a bad deal. You would increase participation, premiums could be lower. Babo Babo is actually an interesting technical way of doing this. That standard in urban- and you talk to me about. He suggested that why not when we ask, for they have insurance like one. I have a follow up question that says so. You asked its anti taxes. Of insurance is a now do have insurance now and you say no and then actually give them away, set up a director and roll them at that point seems like a very feasible way to do some version of oil and with them in this setting republican ATO and wrong. There's like a beaten, switch we're like, instead of the auto, unroll being a technical correction to Creasy aside. Ups, it's like also, instead of Enrolling you in one of these plans that people are already
kind of dissatisfied, with their quality of can auto oil. You in a way worse plan and like that decision again as Ezra we're saying what is the problem that you are defending it? from a brook Obama's third term perspective. The problem is You didn't succeed in getting as many people to sign up as he thought he would so. You're gonna and health insurance wasn't is, worldwide. So you're gonna try to do a bunch of different things to boost sign up to the boat Republicans are defining the problem as largely consisting of the government spending too much money. Like no way to make this work. It's like the. two conversations that are happening in parallel, but when you put them Heather like? Why would you automatically unroll people in an inch this plan that they're gonna find very dissatisfaction and sent a republic, I worry I what my concern at the base of this is that the price
they are trying to solve. Is how do you get Scipio to stop saying that twenty four million people losing their health insurance without act. paying for those people to have usable health. Serbia said that there is some level beneath which they will not count. What you give people's health insurance, but they have been in a traffic, is all but weird super vague about what that means. So nobody knows what the line is, but presumably asylum applicants are learning yes what the line as they have. Those newer versions of this reads like ok, it is a very different world of what you're saying is everybody's. Get auto rolled into a catastrophic plan the cover some preventative and is a five thousand dollar deductible that still a lot money for a poor family, but within reasonable levels of health expense, it does protect you from catastrophe. Fifteen twenty and you're totally out of out of the ballgame and suggest when we when we define the problem? I think that the problem is,
see score re. Not but don't we always is watching the autumn. Role is doing the work. They are writing Where does the the merits? If you got from the be exactly how watered down you can make the insurance and also called ensure and you just change the regulations to like hit that Scipio waterline right. If you do that, then premiums will fall said The mandate is still in place like more people whilst sign up for new, cheaper, even the worse insurance, which will spread the word for better. I mean you, you will get a better scipio score if you just focus on whatever. Is that scipio baseline but the auto role is like neither necessary nor sufficient for that it. Just then, if you ve also publicans, don't think the mandate is bad, but they have paint against it enough that they are now determined to get rid of it?
so they now need to come up with something that would cover the same consequences as the mandate, but that they can somehow say they were peeled it and they would be. I mean they will look like idiots if they just admit that they are going to keep this thing. But look they already look like idiots, I mean Mexico's, not gonna pay for a wall there's like a million ridiculous things that were set on a campaign trail that they're not gonna, do if they're gonna fundamentally violate the premise of lower people's deductibles? There might as well break their other promises, rather than come up with a cock. A may mean new thing that they can have to create some new master database for where, like actually the only point of this all, is too like. Let them say they scrap. The mandate does like. Who cares? they their breaking promises left right? They should try to canvassing that works
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a website. It is gonna help you do that and square spaces really one of the best ways to make that happen. If you go at check out and use promo code, Weeds Square spaced out com, you get ten percent off on your purchase. That's a great initial deal. A square spaced out Cobb make an ex move, make an ex website you square space. I wasn't meant a white paper for my birthday and maintains twenty seventeen chanty seer holier under. I am thirty. Six They were then. Thank you. I don't really know. I say his name, but he's and Enrico recover to superstars of zoning related economics papers. They came together to collaborate and a master paper. The new pornographer zoning related economics papers, something I think, that more than a broken social see it as a canadian super groups, but there they ve collaborated on a paper to look at Overall, what has been
The economic impact of the fact that high wage city is like New York San Francisco Bay Area, Boston tend to also be high. Housing costs, cities, and are attempting to model what, if it was possible for people to serve move in unlimited numbers into these high wage city is because they would just build more and houses, and they find that the impact on GDP growth is extremely large having a spatial equally real model and data from two hundred twenty metropolitan areas. We find that these constraints in housing lowered aggregate. U S, growth by more than fifty percent from nineteen sixty four to two thousand nine can achieve in her. Yet so recognising that I understood the seven percent of this paper theirs I like that they, that is a very big number, like the easier it is to me, it actually like an implausibly big number and it.
Is a hundred percent, because I was home. Troubled method is a little bit hard for me to understand what the underlined modeling assumptions warlike. Does everyone they move in a way. That is not really true that the degree to which people even want to move places because being a fox or not, they are not just go wherever the incomes are highest like what what Hans for that I did not get in in plain English in that paper, a good accounting of how that could be, so high. When really there only looking at like it looked like they were not looking at that much bit What city seemed to me to be doing a lot of the work, at least in the way they narrative visor on paper? Yeah me, I mean they focus very heavily and unjust tat, just a handful of high costs, cities, but You don't get the way works. I think there's sick too big mechanism actually net with this for four big mechanism. Ok, so one is you have more people in the higher wage cities and they are earning higher wages, the other
is that housing costs are lower in what are currently the most expensive cities, so that the the real inflation ingested GDP, which is be much higher. If a house on the coasts cost? What a house in Texas cost that real, incomes of all coastal people would be much much higher? There are also positive that there are more of those people, so the real incomes get higher than that housing. We are also lower in the rest of the country, though, because this less, man for housing, so the real comes. Everybody are going up. Do there our housing costs the land There's like a better in terms of who were man's in what right now or the low wage economies they are positive that there would be sort of a better match and higher earnings potential there right so that you know Orlando
are right. Is not like the centre of high tech innovation in the United States, but it is a place that has its own distinctive industries in terms of tourism and and things like that, and there's more demand for those kind of services, because more people are wealthier elsewhere and are still some people there who are able to take maximum advantage of what is it that Orlando has right? What is it that billing, Montana, has that it's good at what is it that connection Wisconsin, where they make a lot of home appliances swayed. So everybody is left better match too many people are left in higher wage general finds various housing costs for everybody are lower and there is a lot more economic growth, no it's a! U I've seen other efforts to quantify this that come up with numbers. There are big, but not nearly as
so soda be like a trillion dollars more of of GDP? Maybe could be added instead of this warlike, maybe two trillion, and also obviously people don't Really now right I mean a lot we're talking going back to nineteen sixty four. a lot about the United States would look different if you'd had uncontrolled housing, growth and expensive coastal cities over the past fifty years in ways that I think, are you know you you're not gonna they have allowed greek letters, but, like you, knock capture, but would like actually actually be different. If we see en masse depopulation of Ohio if sentences San Jose was one of the biggest cities in the world. If huge migration too, you know, Nevada, just like hadn't taken place like everything would be really different. What's a one question. This is a really basic question at reading this very bath. Every paper aid may stretch and other research on the topic to, but
How much of this is a story about policy verses like geographic constraints, that Lake City, that we take the like a set amount of space in any city and am curious. Something else a little trouble working through this paper was a college of this is like policy decisions and become The constraints are like a story about policy, each www, almost all policy. It is obviously that there's only so much space in particular areas, but the cost of building highway buildings is really not even close to accounting for the people, price of dwellings that, in these places, egg Glaser and I got Joseph your co, I think it's his name. They show that it's something like seventy to eighty percent of that that housing costs premium inexpensive cities is purely permitting and nothing to do with that.
to a land constraints or or constraints on on the building design, and you can see that by king about? You know some other kinds of of places. But if you just do a strain of comparison right, so the city simmered Cisco, has a population density that is a little bit lower than the borough of Queens in New York. It's about half of Brooklyn, we obviously know you could build of small water surrounded, but highly valuable area to Manhattan, type density, right, there's, nothing! Stopping sentences! Go from doing that! please don't email me about earthquakes where people always do Tokyo is on fault lines. Very tall buildings is totally fine. It's in fact better to build big structures with advance engineers and a shitty old row houses. Its policy, which interesting is that its local policy right people make these decisions, in short, a town meetings zone in ports.
you're saying. Basically, what do we want our community to be like, and there you know deciding different things. But in general they are deciding for less growth, then a free market would provide, and what this paper is saying. What this whole literature saying is that their national implications, of these decision swayed, I mean people, say: ok We want Palo Alto to be basically a suburban kind of place, and That's that's like how we like it. That is our right as Americans to choose. If you want to live in a different kind of place than that just move someplace else, but there's implications for the national economy and one of the things said. That bleeds into our. I think it leads into his of it. What we're simply saying is that the national economies are losing out, so these local areas concerned the way they want to stay and to the extent that what the office your past
thing is a really an overriding national interests. I mean, if you take their estimate seriously, a fifty percent increase in GDP. A you do anything to get that like head is huge and if you it seriously. What are you beginning to talk about, I'm beginning to think a bit about something like what the federal government did to move the drinking? job to age, twenty one like yoga highway funding unless you're losing your zoning rules were are the national leavers, because the key move yours to save it. The count We as a huge interest in pulling these leave aside. What would they may I mean? I think you would say carrot and stick right. I mean you would say that there are a certain number of areas of You know national economic interest and significance and that we are going to provide a large pot of money for those places to build transportation. Infrastructure too, you know, embrace a large amount of population growth, but if they don't take that my
and change their zoning. They're gonna lose many other things. Another thing you could do that are very an American in its spirit, but light in some ways make everybody happier would be to actually badger that companies and get them to go. Someplace else You know for good reasons like Google and Facebook and Apple all want to be where the center of the high tech into it is in the United States, but if Madam president, trumpet doesn't care about norms likes to yell at people, get in the ceos of those three companies and of two big venture capital companies like all in a room and saying you know, he's a big bath like you too. Me where your companies are all going to go, and then we will have a heightened. cluster in Phoenix Or- whatever else. That's my like an optimal optimal outcome, but it would be a lot better than the current
and I don't know you don't you can like what could the government like really make that happen? Probably now On the other hand, could you do it if you really want to could use scare, California, politicians who, right now, you know a bear people- are they become very like skeptical of tat. You know it's like what we like these buses in these general fires. Faced with the prospect of like ok, the Golden Goose's gonna say like you, You guys hate us so much we're going someplace else. Would they have a different viewpoint suddenly like now, actually being centre of many of the world's leading companies is, is good, New York, though, which is also a big part of this Europe's housing supplies less time than the Bay area, but does much bigger city, so it it counts for a lot and It is not nearly as dominated by a handful of players or even by one industry financed
Obviously, the biggest thing happening in New York, but a number of other industries Journalism example are concentrated there, so I think it would be too much profit driver knee or allies here, and everyone else is anywhere there. I am international examples. Are the idea you're talking about, because here we don't relics, Switzerland earlier and their fine, like garnishing your wages for not having health insurance and possibly there are you in jail, but other other countries where they are more comfortable with that kind of government intervention, you see them like a witness personal yeah. I mean Denmark tried a version of dispersal, but their government agencies. I think it's mostly been seen as a failure of Japan and did the other thing is very much national eyes. Land use type restrictions, so Tokyo keeps getting bigger and bigger and bigger, even though the population of Japan is actually falling, it works Tokyo? Have you can Doug you to London, New York, Paris other, like global cities, its way way way cheaper because they they keep building housing. They also have I mean not at knock down.
They also, like legendary, have the world's like most advanced rail transportation network in Tokyo, so you can get places from very very far away. You might also look at Europe, though, as not as a series of countries, but as a continent wide call me and see that because of its debate in two different countries in itself is a kind of dispersed, verse of America right so that, like one It is a big city with a lot of companies in it, but so is pair so is that sort of Rhine were area in Germany? So is MILAN in ITALY that the fact that these are considered different countries? They have lots and lots of sort of little hut clusters? It would be interesting if it would be a big crisis for Europe bright if all language and cultural distinctions vanish, and like every major the actions, I everybody
if a hugely disproportionate share of like be globally successful european companies started fostering in just like three or four different city is rather than a couple dozen nest capitals like they would have a big problem on their hands but that's regard reads: ok thanks analysing out we're all three of US women we back on Friday, but some big promises I'm coming back. There's a severe supporters. There's gonna be a desirable, be yellow ivy. I've wanted. I want, there's gonna, be a c b o score. There's gonna be a special election result. Maybe trump we'll get back on twitter once he's back in the United States. Did you see that thing where his aids that they were planning flight so that he couldn't be on twitter? That's what he's Eads. Think of him, I dont under actually understand why not. They have Wifi and air Force one if they haven't I'm like regular planes, it will answer the question
I'm ready a deep dive into airplane mechanic, other political blog. On the contrary, we got Jaska monk who is really fascinating guys numerical donation lecture at Harvard spending a lot of research on credit, be consolidation. The ways in which this sort of intellectual and ideological consensus run democracy and liberal, pluralistic ideas spraying down turns out a lot more, people in American US, they are k with a military coup. Then the new stewing survey. It's maybe not that important live in a democracy have got him before that Brain Stevenson equal justice initiative, as are both good interviews, I think we'd listeners would like to check that out on the US or concho. And if you do not want to discuss what you are thinking about all of these different episodes, you can always come join our weeds Facebook group growing by the day, it is actually a lovely corner of the internet where people are having really good conversation. The few about, yes, it is, is a rare blades. We ve never good substantive conversation,
policy that mad and as you and I are jumping into, and if you go on Facebook and search we You will find a marijuana later groups which will also find there aren't they springs book dot com, such group sauce, needs, I think climate. Yes, thanks to our Facebook group thanks, everyone is listening thanks desert. Sarah thanks are producer. Bird Pinkerton, we'll see you in a couple days.
Transcript generated on 2021-09-13.