« The Weeds

Virginia is for Democrats

2017-11-10

Dara Lind and Andrew Prokop join Matt to talk about this week’s election results and the implications for 2018.

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Roma live at an hour. Then ascended to Heaven knows have happened, hello, welcome to another part of the reason the box media pack has network. I met your glaziers join me today is a darling and Andrew Procope. We did a couple weeks ago. I thought the three of us a great pie cast looking ahead to the region. You couldn T, elections from northern was flailing, Msf, thirteen attacks
swear, boosting a Gillespie narrowing the poles. As recently as tuesdays episode, I was on the air not making any strong predictions about Northmen Gillespie, but saying that in practice even have Democrats, one now they're much would change on a policy level, because the republican majority in the house, a delicate, was just insurmountable large. And it turns out not to be true pending a couple we counts. Democrats might be tied in the house. The delegates, I'll be down one or two seats, their definite gonna be down one seat in the state Senate, so it'll be
hard to pass legislation. I don't think Virginias can become like a huge engine of a progressive policy making. But it's it's close enough that you know a little shenanigans arm twisting and, and things can can get bills through. So basically Democrats it a lot better than people are expecting gains in a house of dollars were particularly big deal for Democrats because they started there were way down. They only had thirty force its compared to Republicans sixty six seats in the hundred see chamber and they ve gone all the way up to at least forty nine. He's and they might pending the outcome of, I think three races that still look extremely close. They might get enough to have it be a fifty fifty tie where there would have to do some sort of power sharing agreement, and this is a big deal in and this did come as a big surprise.
Because all of the analysts and pundits who looking at this beforehand, just thought that that was just way too much ground fur Democrats to make up in the State House Democrats have been additionally weak down ballot in recent years and there- and there is this powerful report. Jerry Gerrymander and it's hard to beat incumbents yeah exactly, but what that happening is not only were the closely contested races tipping and Democrats favour by a bunch of races that weren't, even on Anybody's rate are also flipped Democrats in and long time incumbents were knocked off, so you had a member of the democratic social. Of America who was running as a Democrat, and he beat one of the republican leaders in the chamber, and that was just like total shocker. He you have other races that
were more known to be contested, but we're still viewed as reaches for Democrats, which they also one they basically one sort of everywhere, based on sort of the strength of the democratic brand the generally there wasn't one type of candidate that one Dan ballot it was. It was just sort of every type I have a question about this aid. All I have after Tuesday is questions. I'm hoping the UK is concerned, some of them out for me, but I've heard too different narratives about the House of delegates races. I've heard you know, Democrats in progress, say see. This is why even if you think the races hopeless you just have to have some one, because in a strong enough wave election, no matter who you have as long as there is a Democrat, someone's gonna vote for them and they have a chance. I have also the narrative that these house of Delegates Races saved Ralph North because people were super excited about voting for their house of delegates candidates and that that you know carried, nor
to a bigger margin of victory than his. Otherwise, is somewhat uninspiring. Candidacy would have had, and those kind of sea mutually exclusive to me, like either the house of delicate. Candidates are warm bodies or their though that are really driving democratic enthusiasm and I'm wondering what you guys think as to which of these is true, while I definitely think they saved north them. He won by almost nine points. Switches. Any convincing. When I think it's more, it makes more sense to think that both are coming from the larger trend which we did observed, which is that Democrats were enthusiastic and willing to turn out and done, and I think one interesting thing about these house of delicate Cases in particular, is that you know I said there was a gerrymander, but it actually turned out that in twenty sixteen Hillary Clinton, one fifty one of the one hundred districts in the house
So, in a presidential year it did seem like Democrats had the advantage, and the big question was whether they could replicate this presidential year type turn out in a non presidential year, and it turns out basically they did they won. There has dug it gains did come, overwhelmingly in those Clinton districts. So I'm Yemen, the gerrymander issue right, is that you know you you Jerry, you have a census in twenty
again, and then you draw gerrymander based on what you know about politics. In twenty ten and Virginia S estate, that's been heavily impacted by the sort of structural shift of white college graduates into the democratic party. So a lot of seeds that were drawn to be safe republican seats, Hillary Clinton, one in twenty sixteen, which then raised it made them contestable. But then what happened? Twenty seventy in that was striking. Was the Democrats didn't wind like some of the vulnerable incumbent house? Republicans they want basically, all of them, which rarely happens. I mean typical An incumbent, elected official is able to got out a couple extra percentage points based on you know, incumbency manages and and district fit in
Democrats, all throughout Obama's term in office, just like struggled with turn out in off your elections, and I don't think it's shocking. That being of office. You not helped ameliorate that a lot, but you never know until happens. Right like this was the first big test of the theory that switching the president would sort of alter the enthusiasm gap in and it seems to have so. It's really worth highlighting the gerrymander question, as I have seen, some people had to say. This shows that, because you know ten years passed between censuses that Jerry, in about partisan gerrymandering aren't actually that valid, because demographic change over the course of a decade. I think they're really were three factors that combined to make this not to kind of we're coming gerrymandering Virginia and only one of them is time. The second is that the demo, Ethics in Virginia were changing in a way that fevered people who are
less prone to vote or suppression and people. Who are kind of more heavily court in a who who are swing. Voters and therefore, who, if they switch parties, are ain't. You really impact that margin which, as you know, kind of the White well over heated subordinates and third, the that voter group so happened to coincide with a voter group that was shifting Enow on mass, not only swing voters, but really over. The last kind of you know we ve seen between twenty sixteen twenty seventeen shifting into the democratic camp in a row positively big way in Virginia, at least so that it's not necessarily the case that anything it's not necessarily the case. The Texas, for example, where Jerry entering really is counteracting demo. Africa Change is going to end up flipping just because the damage picture there. It's a matter of hoo hoo the people who are moving in who aren't being accounted for when those senses lines drawn twenty tat. Yeah I mean, and also you know you just do these things
or less well, meaning in North Carolina right here, wine almost half. The vote and Democrats have like a third of the seats in the state legislature and the democratic community or candidate. One is of course true. There's like some theoretical level of way Venus will block that, but realistically be they need a different map, you'll one language? I did think that that down ballot. I can mostly this idea that, like Democrats, excellent down ballot candidates were gonna lie save the day. I think that was a kind of pious Smith. King by, and I think it is great that their active is out there who are trying to recruit more people to run for local office. That's like an important thing to do you mind up overstating. Things when you're an actress and organizer, but one which I do think it made a difference. Is that Democrats had such a sort of diverse pork
folio of down ballot candidates that when north them started to look shaky, there was things that people who are political activists could still be exe. I did about right. If you are a red rose, twitter guy who thought the whole top to bottom approach of the northern campaign was misguided. There was still This, like weirdo longshot, dsl candidate, running again stir a guy from that has a delicate leadership and you could be excited about Him wait if you wanted to engage in a little out of state anti trump active resistance, and you didn't want that to be swallowing your doubts about wealth nor firm. You could ouch onto that guy. If you were interested in Trans issues, there was a trans woman running widespread north them didn't need to highlight that issue she frankly and even highlighted much in her campaign, which was really about
local issues instead of but its varied matter to people selling the hang onto there were a couple of promising latina candidates who one so even when north them is out there. Like flip flopping around and sanctuary cities, you can be interested in them if, if that's what's up for you, rather than the whole campaign from an activist viewpoint, all being like, you have to of wealth nor them, I think you know. Realistically you look at what happened. It's like people showed up at the voting booth to vote for Democrats and they just voted for Democrats down the line and, like that's, why both the Trans woman, who wanted to talk about highway, widening and the democratic socialist to nobody, do like they, both mine right, eight hundred and eighty eight everybody seem to win pretty much in a way that suggests consists of pure function of district level partisanship. But I do think that you know like activists in good vibes, all the while that, like Democrats and some high level way seem to be in disarray and sniping at each other
was like everyone had some one who they liked in that sort of bunch, and I do think that probably makes a difference at the margin, in particular in terms of like fund raising volunteers stuff like that. But I don't wanna go back and sort of question the narrative that prevailed over the last couple weeks of the campaign, which is that north and was looking shaky, and I want to ask now if we think that you know that was actually true anywhere outside twitter, the guy one by nine points he started winning all these late designers. That's when exit polls say anyway, and you know now the northern campaign is putting out their internal
rules in and they they show him pretty comfortably ahead for the last month or so of the race, and so I mean did that even happen outside of the mines of of pundits and and people on Twitter who are sort of just booking to snipe at this guy because they were, excited about it. I don't want to talk about this internal pull because it is fascinating and its also lake often campaign talk about their internal poles during the campaign they're trying to counteract the narrative at the time and the northern campaign appears to have held its fire until they had won by nine points and then said see we knew this was happening all along. I can't I'm gonna try added to describe this poor orally for the benefit of our podcast listeners. But what they put out is a pull that show and thanks to Andrew for actually for actually finding this, but they have a pull that who's that immediately after at Gillespie started pushing his big
Miss thirteen add campaign and, if you're, not Virginia media market. It's really hard to overstate just how ubiquitous this add campaign. What's this wasn't something that only people who are following Paul Six online knew about you couldn't Watch, you know play off baseball jeopardy too kind. My hand about the only two things I want on television out of this coming out and the North campaign found the right after that Adblock started. Gillespie favorability drops from plus ten two negative one and does recover, doesn't recover neutral favour ability for the rest of the campaign, whereas Ralph Williams favour ability doesn't appear affected at all like it. It was a little bit after a week or so, but it it stays positive for that whole time. So, basically, it looks like we're them campaign was sitting on numbers that showed that this thing that look
like it was really a very strong attack that the candidate himself wasn't effectively rebutting in public was actually really helping their candidate. I have I I have a relatively hot take about the difference between noise. Some himself being able to. But this and the northern campaign withstanding it, but I that is in uninformed hot taken. I wanna hear from you guys what you think about this phenomenon. It seems to me that if the northern campaigns in an appalling had actually been showing what they now claim it showing that Northern wouldn't have done the sanctuary cities footfall that he actually did. I mean like, I don't know right I mean I don't have access to like a secret Paul. I just know:
I was watching the campaign first, they were taken heed for these ads and they they looked initially like they thought. Okay, this isn't gonna connect with people. Our strategy for winning is to get the Hillary Clinton voters. Pillar voters are still with us there not interested in anti immigrant demagoguery if they had been interested in that We have voted for Donald Trump, not by definition they didn't, but actually what he did was halfway through it with changes position on the issue at hand which certainly at the time like something that you would do, because you felt the issue is hurting you. The one thing that I I think we can know for sure here is that needs over had a good post looking at gubernatorial actions as a sort of function of the last presidential result and the president's current or poor rating. This is before the election. He said. Based on this, you would expect North em to win by about eight or nine points
in fact polls show him winning by about two or three points. It seems I north and will probably win, but it seems like he's underperforming a little bit. In fact, we know there was appalling error. He wasn't underperforming. He was right on where that sort of fundamentals base of forecasts which would make you think which, as you know like that's fine, but you might have thought right if you, if you hadn't, watch the campaign at all, You'd say like ok, here's a state, the Hillary Clinton one, the Donald Trump is only gotten the less popular since that happened. The democratic candidate is a military. Veteran is a medical doctor. Is the incumbent lieutenant governor whose already one statewide born and raised in Virginia speaks with this? You know sweet drawl and his it is a lobbyist from New Jersey who served in the discredited administration of George W Bush and like bear
Lee beat a campaign against like nobody, racist in this thing, and so like you would want north em to over perform the mental swayed like using really solid candid right, like everything who are democrats hoping to recruit and Governor Tory Election, these guys, who have already one statewide, who are also Miller very veterans and also medical doctors like. That is the answer. That is, who you want trade Northern right on the fundamentals. Gillespie seems like a terrible and it was a terrible. Did it, but a bed biography for it.
I got it give me this is all a little bit. It gets visa broadly consistent with the idea that, on a technical level, Gillespie sorted out played north them and also that campaign tactics are just not that important that, like elections, are not won or lost fundamentally based on campaign tactics that a lot of people I, for example, thought less of Ralph North or by the end of the campaign than I did at the big of the campaign, that said, I still would have voted for him. If I lived in Virginia it's just like that, isn't that big of it do you, you know with any kind of campaigning against wonders how many people
Swayed by this verges how many people are swayed by the macro political situation, which is that Republicans, our little demobilize Democrats, r AMP d up, you know people people want revenge, so I I mean I I dont think do I guess. If we're looking forward right, like I dont think, Democrats should look at this and be like well as fine. We never need to worry about. Sanctuary city adds again. I think they should look at this and be like. Ok. If we get these ads We need still like better answer than what northern gave Ray. I think that that's kind of the key re when we were talking about this a couple of weeks ago. All of us we're talking about conversations we are having with democratic consult sure look, knew what was going on emerging and were terrified not necessarily because of Virginia, but because they saw this coming right because it is not that Virginia is the biggest bell. Other state it. There are ways in which it is now, but usually The reason why we will pay attention to Virginia in New Jersey is there the only two
deeds that have statewide elections in the year between the presidential campaign in the mid terms, and so you look to see what might be happening in the mid term. So I think a lot of the democratic panic is what happens when this? comes what every single republican candidate is running on and every single democratic and it has to respond to, and so I think that the fact that Ralph nor them didn't have agreed response, even though it did not end up hurting him is not The ceremony that doesn't necessarily speak well of the campaign it for one thing could be that they weren't very confident their own internal. Poland could staple bad. It could also be that a lot of people were looking twelve northern to figure out a way that Democrats could start to win on this issue, and that is still a big fat question. Mark yeah I'd make a couple points. One
That Gillespie was indeed a corporate lobbyists party establishment, I figure, but again in twenty fourteen when he ran for Senate, he came less than a point away from defeating the incumbent. Senator Democrat Mark Warner seem to be well liked so like they did a great job. Two, he he's not. You know that there was reason to expect him to do well. Yes on paper, he is lobbyists but like he had made this run in which he had shockingly over performed in the past. So I don't think it's tiredly accurate to say that that he was an obviously weak candidates. All long. One thing that I do remember talking out before the election is that I thought that the narrative was focusing a little too much on Democrats in disarray and a little too,
you know that what was happening on the republican side, because yeah Gillespie had these negative, add campaigns. But there are also like reports she had these half empty rallies. All the time like, I don't know it just didn't, because The leading narrative of the re stared at Gillespie was having trouble exciting the republican base. There was reason to believe that beforehand and now, seeing the results, there's even more reason to believe that really. So I think this will. What really is the most important thing here determining all this is is that we have moved from eight years of elections in which a Democrat was president to now and
popular republican being president. So that changes things in a variety of ways it. It seems to me Democrats care, bore about politics and and more willing to turn out in off years to express their displeasure with the president. It also, I think, might make begin voters a little more can placing a little lamb you now because they woke up the day after Tuesdays, election and Donald Trump. So, president, any still Probably gonna, be president for another three years, so it it wasn't like the stakes you know were incredibly high for them, and this seems to be a really powerful. Historical dynamic is not entirely clear. Why that's the case, but this backlash against the President's party is, is just one of the clearest things that pops out when you look at the historical die
about. You know how the parties do in off your elections under precedence of each party yonder ably right, that's lit, let's take a break in and then and then, let's, let's, let's talk about this point about, you know that the sort of broader trends here be great talent for your business. Are you little short on time? I can get of course, work. Everybody needs great talent, everybody needs and the Great news is you- don't have to get stuck in a huge stack of resonates, defined, perfect higher anymore. You just need to break need smart. You need zipper, reciprocated, suppose you got to over one hundred the world's leading job words with just one click see rest easy, you don't you jobs being seen by the right. Can that's great? That's fine. Would you really get distance? He procured a pretty smart matching. Technology worked actively notifying qualified candidates about your job and minutes opposed to receive the best possible, and that's why hypocrites unlike other Hiram. Besides, it is independent
right, Canada's finding new kid times them. Eighty percent of employers who programmes hypocritical quality can cite just one did the easy to use them. Dashboard. This you manage your home process from start to finish its really great you not have like get lost. Confused figure was happening. Zip recruiter is the smartest way. Ok, so so what do you need to know? The sounds great. You want to try to find out today by super produced and used by growing businesses, all size and all industry by the most other by John Kennedy. Did he presented right now. Our listeners composed garden supercool for free, that's right. It's free, just good as if we did not come such beads, zip, recruiter, dot, com, slash weeds, one more time tried for free, zip, recruiter, dotcom slush, So Andrew, I want to force you to take a victory lap here. I feel like if I had said what you said a couple of weeks ago, or Lord knows of man had said what you said a couple of weeks ago. We would have been like coming into this
cast with the rocky theme, his you absolutely called this trend that I didn't see anybody else really talking about, and that really does appear to have been a big deal in Virginia right, which is the Goliath the enthusiasm gap, and so I the reason that I think that match your point about God he's Bio is maybe not as true in Virginia store, please it has been a lot of other places, the Virginia. It does have a lot of Republicans who moved there. From else there elsewhere who are affluent, who really really care about cutting taxes, and that's been YO, because there are Publican based, tends to be pretty high propensity voters there older their wider. They know they turn out all of the time that huh the candidate has been maybe doesnt matter so much in off after election by We ve seen this. He no substantial shift of the white Working class, the kind of Trump voters into the republican coalition-
it kind of looks lake, the Republicans houses, propensity voters of their own and even though it turned out to vote for Donald Trump. Just like say, young voters turned out to vote for Barack Obama and twenty elite that doesn't magically turn them into high prevented I feel like you male. This question of republican base enthusiasm in a way that looks like it really did shift some of the turn out patterns in Virginia, and I anything I mean what went into dangerous point is there. This is like a big macro phenomena.
I remember I did a piece about Democrats down bout losses. Underbrush Obama, which is like people, talked about a lot and, and one thing I found down There- was that Democrats lost ground down ballot under a bomber Republicans lost ground down ballot under Georgia, be Bush Democrats loss condemn ballot under Bill Clinton. Democrats also lost ground down ballot in the Kennedy Johnson years, Republicans lost down ballad train the Eisenhower years Democrats last down ballot during empty Ares term, the only exception to this rule and Perhaps one reason for his semi legendary status and in politics is Ronald Reagan who Republicans lost ground in the north, down and under Reagan, but the sort of. Meda macro trend towards Republicans, doing better in the south continue while he was in office, but that's like the only exception to this rule.
And I I don't know much about politics of other countries, but I do know about the politics of Germany and like the out the and Sellers Party always loses down ballot. They error to outwit strongly suggests to me that, like the issue is not something about party tat. Tax or organizing about like some fairly fundamental feature of human psychology is like, knowing that your guy is in the White House, gives you a sense of symbolic affirmation that also leads to complacency. And to me like a really telling thing in this regard is how Democrats one every region we started the biggest deal, but they also picked up. These two state has a representative seats in Georgia in districts. They hadn't contested the last time round and that were close in twenty sixteen, but but Hillary Clinton narrowly lost thumb and Democrats, one both of those and, I think, pretty clear
that is because the turn out too I mean the turnout, was a low rate of both sides. Not them any Democrats voted and not that many Republicans voted, but we're whoever that hard core wise who wanted to go vote in an off your election in a special way. Should raise for Georgia House of Representatives, which is like. There were no stakes at all in the republic of huge majorities in those races, but just more Democrats did it because there are more democratic out there being like. I want to find a way to stick to Donald Trump than there are republicans who are out there being like. I want to find a way to to support my man and I don't know- I mean That'S- can be a problem for every down ballot Republican, particularly because Trump is unpopular. From start soaring. Maybe even will have this huge sense of vindication, but why now it's like?
You have the people who were into tramp and like there to trumpet they feel. Ok, then you have people who may be dont like some democratic policy ideas, but they are also not that into Trump and it's it's hard to win that way, and you know that look. I found when Obama was in office and I think I think we're suddenly going to find that everything Democrats do tactically starts looking really good, because as president I mean this is not an immutable look law. Politics are rightly literally Virginia in twenty thirteen flipped from the opposing dirty through the president's party. Does that mean terminology as some kind of political genius? Apparently territory is greatest genius as well
a common voice there. I think that, as a binding down, I ended up got it first of all Mccall, if only one, by a couple of points it that actually turned out. He was bleeding by lot in the polls, but the final margin was actually think less than three points. It turned out to be very close and was in retrospect. Maybe he was running and staff can Cornelie, who is viewed as an extremist in and then when the actual vote came as well could finally actually came kind of close. So. I do not think that necessarily points either way. I think governors races there's more variation in what happens in governors races than there is in say
the overall amount of house of Representatives losses, because you know there are different factors. It's taken different governor ships and end the m. The state parties can sort of tailor their platforms to better fit their state. Like you can really have in this day and age, like gum, conservative, democratic governor in like a state like Louisiana or Charlie Baker. In Massachusetts, Republic Gander. Governors are more independent persona that's great evil exactly so so I think there's and if you look at the historical pattern, you can see the direction it bounces
and a little fir, especially the Senate and the House and the governor ships, because those racism, I think they personalities and and persona a particular candidates, are more important than those races and in the house representatives or something The Virginia has delegates. It really is more about sort of the party brands and damn you know which voters are motivated to turn out in, and you do see this historical pattern in the off years that things tend to swing against the presents party and its support to note that most president actually go on to get reelected. So it's not as simple as you know, most president's end up disappointing people driving them away because most of them come back around like
Bob got reelected couldn't got reelected, mixing area elected, you know, but I think there it it's really. What seems to me to be the case is that it comes down to the president's not being on the ballot and done his supporters just being less. The stakes just seem lower to the supporters of the President if they know that he still gonna be an office for another few years. At the college thing which I had forgotten kind of raises makes more serious, that I've kind of had after Tuesday night, but I think a lot of people have had, which is what the hell is going on with state pulls Ralph nor the Poles were wrong about Ralph, nor them by a bigger margin. Then they were wrong about Donald Trump and it just happened to be in the direction of the guy. That was going to win one, but by more, but I'm really it it's. Like there's really beginning to be this concern that at state level, pollsters just have lost a sense
how to model whose actually gonna turn out does. Is there any, the way out of the wilderness. Here, we just kind of in Era where we're not were legit not going to have any idea how an election might come out until the last balance counted pulling has always been hard. I've I feel like I've, really the convention, wisdom about this. Like oscillates more than that the reality like I remember, being in India, see working for the two dozen for election in which the Poles just like. They always show that Bush had Elite over John Kerry like Manna hugely but like a lead and peace. Oh isn't like every single person was convinced that carry was get when there was not a confirmation by Us Work, Democrats or more likely to think that the Republicans but like there was a widespread view at that point. The polling is like shot full of errors and, like
totally possible that this is completely wrong, but it turned out. It was fine, then two thousand and eight was like was never close and don't nobody ever thought. John Mccain was going to win, and indeed he didn't two thousand and twelve was like two thousand and four again where people like raised a lot of objections to the polling actually turned out to be fine, and then everyone seems to learn from that that, like it's impossible for there to be error at all and developed myself to included alike, excessive sense of confidence in pulling, even though you know there's always some differences between the twenty. Sixteen poles on the twenty twelve balls was similar Virgin but like at lower levels then we got again with this northern thing. It was like the answer to the post about the like now infamous morning, Joe panel, in which I know by He was willing to take the position that the candidate up at the possible, probably win, which was a little crazy
I think that we're always good reasons to have some doubts about north mislead key was definitely up in the polls, which is a pretty good evidence that he's gonna work And now I don't know where we are, but it's like it's hard to model turn out. Inherently haven't peered under the hood of these Virginia Poles, but one thing that I would speculate as possibility is a little sort of you know over correction in the modeling because of twenty sixteen now national poles were actually spot on in TAT, Word Virginia with a margin yet and so a virgin poles. But but there were those polling, MRS Feur Gillespie previous Run for Senate. In twenty fourteen, and as I just mentioned them calleth race, in twenty thirteen, he didn't much worse than his poles showed so So you had those examples and then get out the twenty. Sixteen Virginia poles were
but then it was like. Well, that's a presidential year electorate, and so maybe, if I had to speculate, I think there is probably a little conservatism in the modeling choices there in that they were worse sort of I don't know it could have also been late. Designers to the exit polls did show that late designers broke overwhelmingly fur Northanger men and that that's pretty normal in these wave elections actually like a lot of people who don't necessarily to noon until the very end they still are sort of motivated by. I am you know that the larger narratives of, what's going on life, the tromp era, like we're gonna turn out, like Republicans, are running this racist campaigner. Or what have you so I mean I
You think, though, that the return to more humility about whether the poles will be correct is is a good thing, like I made fun of the morning Joe panel, because they really displayed their own sort of group, think in which they all came to the conclusion that the poles are wrong in the same select direction, and it was that they were under estimating at Gillespie and that he was gonna win by. But I do think that questioning or having some scepticism about what the polls show is good at, like we ve seen again and again in you know certain in its entirety. Sixteen, like Wisconsin and now again in this Virginia race at the polls, can be why off singly idea. We see it's very like the poles are not that reliable with more reliable, then like making things up
anyway. What would Sweden, where Virginia in that regard, is that you know after after Trump One there was a lot of sort of media garment, rending that it was like a ha. We spend too much time in our coastal cities, because it was this sense that appalling error occurred in communities that were geographically and psycho socially distant from the media, and then perhaps, if we imbibed the admin, beer in like run down diners, unlike shitty midwestern hounds, then we would understand what voters are doing and the fact that, like pundit guts, could be wrong specifically about the temperature of the electorate in these herbs of Washington DC just goes to show that, like the alternative to appalling, does not work, There's a literally no group of human beings on the planet that the media is in better touch with, then voters ignore them
You don't like that is the core competency like this is like. Where I go to my apple store. You know, like my furniture comes from Northern Virginia, my aunt lives out there we got friends. We got co workers who are living in the suburbs. Moaning of the republican side, like the bulk of their political professionals, live there. That's why former are in sea chairs are running for governor and, like you, just pulling is hard and the plus get wrong, but you're not going to improve on it. With strange speculation, and it never fails to amaze me just how much political poetry is literally just a reaction to the last thing that happened. What whatever just happened in the previous election, all the people who are trying to protect her do
pundit, work are ten to really overrate the importance of whatever that was, and we saw this during the twenty sixteen primaries I think in and I was making the case that. In twenty twelve. There are all these like republican challengers, who seemed like they could have a chance against Romney. And die briefly search in the pause, and then they all failed and then Ronnie one. So because of that partisans decided at any pundits decided that that the party decides it is like sorted the way to explain how primaries work. We can get the quota by Science Mary and so get out. I think it one of the underrated ways to be more savvy.
Consumer and analysed of views, is to say. Maybe we should just take a longer view than just literally reacting to the last thing that happened here, which was that you know in this case that some Paul's may have somewhat missed what some certain rural white voters moving more in the trunk direction than than they expected. I mean, I think, that that is true, but I think the fervour with which the Pandit class embraced the idea that they had lost the heart of America also speaks to the fact that their that this work, that white working class voters in rural Berlin in inner economically rundown communities are eggs. Firstly, the sort of people who a lot of pundits go through their day, thinking a real Americans and feel a certain amount of guilt They are not caring, about and that, in our view, a lot
the performed surprise after the last election was, I think, people who had felt guilty. In the back of their heads that they were missing. Something thinking that the particular thing they thought they were missing, had in fact happened late. I suspect that one of the smarter ways if we wanted to actually get smarter as as a political class and think about how qualitative leap looking at what's going on in particular communities, could complement the quantitative work the poles are doing. It might be a good idea to think not just about the people who look like you, but who don't make money like you, do and to start thinking about people who don't look like you're or people who come from other experiences, that You know maybe a little more attention to the communities of color who didn't turn out for Hilary. The way they had turned out for Obama and then to note too He notes that some of whom turned out in these local elections or a little more attention to the people who might
I'd be protagonists of Bruce Springsteen, songs or you know the lake Rockwell paintings, but who are Still, people who are far away from the political experience of suburban washingtonians might not a terrible way to actually use qualitative pundit to enrich our understanding of what letters are gonna. Do I mean an interesting thing that that happened here was that when you look at some of the earlier special actions red and which Democrats had sort of over performed relative to to their previous scores of these house districts, but had still falling short one thing mid, the Democrats found was it like resistance feed? was. It was a real thing. We're Democrats will becoming more engaged, but it was limited to white professionals, weight and Africa. American turn out, especially had sort of stayed at like Obama off your election kind of kind of levels.
Another key reason that the John US off bond of doing a low but worse than Hillary Clinton did was that you know there's a substantial african american population that district and they didn't really turn out for him and one thing that happened in Virginia. It see him space. There is always a little heart an open, but it seems like the the resistance fever when more widespread, an impact at all the democratic base group. So yes, college, educated, white women in the suburbs, but also african Americans in Piedmont and also let he knows scattered mostly throughout the suburbs as well, and the debt is a much more potent sort of political combination, then the kind of narrow resistance that their mobilized for for us off- and you know that's an
you can't know I mean to to interest point like I think, is wrong to look at Virginia and just be like a high. This exact same thing will clearly happen in Michigan and twenty eight in, but you know like it's possible right, I mean this kind of thing is, is a difference maker and in it sort of meaningful way. Even the other thing to say about Gillespie is, I think, when we zoom back at this, like a million miles we're gonna. Remember that we always of new that anti immigration themes were potent with some voters, and we ever believed that the voters who anti immigration themes were potent with were people who live in affluence suburbs of very large metropolitan it is right, and it was a little bit of Gillespie. Do the kind of fighting the war, which was like this tactic. Work for Donald something to do it again, but they get it didn't work for damage from in Virginia. He just won the election. Anyone get in
Think that brings to mind another sort of big quit picture question about this stuff, which is set out north them did a couple points better than Hillary Clinton did. If you look at the has Adele erases the Democrats, mainly one districts, that Hillary Clinton, if if they you know replicate, Hillary Clinton performance in an off year, or maybe do a little better than her like that's not enough to take the house They will have to you, no virtue. In some ways the house Adele gets map as surprising as that was. It still was fifty one districts that Hillary Clinton one in twenty. Sixteen, that's not the case for the: U S House, of representatives map in any wish it form, let's take a break, and then
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I think you know. If you want to look at something that more mirrors. What Democrats need to do to win that house you know, you gotta look at something like the Medicaid ballot initiative in me. Right, which mean is a state that Hillary Clinton wine, but does state that was shifting toward tromp Trumbull one of the House districts there and is a very sore of classic example of you know a very white, very working class, but very non southern and very secular population in Maine, and those are the kind of voters that Democrats used to do. Pretty well worth not win, necessarily secular white working Northerners, but due to well well enough that, with some college graduate said and others you, you can win the state and in the Trump era you no democrat restarting to do do much worse wit.
The people and, of course, means governor. You know who was successfully reelected was running on a trumpet ethnic grievance politics. Long before trot he was absolutely key was he was from without he? He never from media juice to let go national. But in and he got a lot of attention, and you know people like these controversial, but but people item medicate expansion ran about ten points ahead of Hillary Clinton which is just a good sort of reminder that pretty good campaign issue when you're running in white communities it It wasn't another things done about it. It's not like it was like toxic in the more affluent coastal areas like people like these programmes and still the most conservative parts of the state are still the most working class parts of this.
Means of its. It's not like these. Some of these light, like red rose dreams where, like, if you run on populism, come, will completely inverse that the class logic of Amerika was similar, broad regional pattern, but just like more popular than like Hillary Clinton, like woke, liberalism, was just like we're going to have more health care for people, and that's.
I think not what you need to do to win in Virginia. It is what you need to do to win in mean and, of course, because politics is hard for Democrats to win in like Michigan. They need to both appeal to african american voters, who are not gonna wanna, hear, like total silence, on questions of grace and racism, but you also mostly need to win by people's votes, who need to hear a campaign that is about things that they care about. So my question about main, though, is like mean, is still a super white state, obviously, as the widest re ray and I feel like there's kind of a consensus- and you know comparative political science, literature and yell should tell me if I'm wrong, that welfare state politics works pretty well in homogenous polities. They come a genius polities, but you don't
you know, as you kind of get more ethnic diversity. People start seeing free stuff from the government as something that's going to other people and they start supporting less. That seems lake. Maybe you can't run on medicate expansion in a more diverse state and get white working class people tend to support it, Yeah I mean that's different. Selling. I would say, if not for the fact that the page had been winning elections in Maine I mean I I frankly I am baffled by white manners. I I've been to being a lot and one of the things that striking there is. You only see white people like ever and I don't really know how the page has managed to give up this level of antagonism about, like seven b, living in Lewiston, but but he has, and even in this way you say like the same basic structure shows, I'm afraid that, like the more world hounds more working class towns that the poorer towns, frankly, there would benefit more from etiquette. Expansion were less likely
of a for it. It is still true that when you were able to put two people, a pretty pure question with a you know you getting fuse culture, war politics into medicate expansion, but still like its medicate expansion. It's not sanctuary cities, it. It ran stronger there and that's you know. I think I think it's not a coincidence that Donald Trump part of what our Trump did was promised people that their Social Security Medicare benefits, we're gonna be safe right. He was trying to say two older white working class voters that there's no tension here. There's no trade off. You don't eat pick between Democrats who will protect your programs and Republicans will protect your values. He sang I'm gonna. Do both right and the question is: can he really continued deliver on what I think you know? One of the interesting.
Thanks in Maine, with the medicate expansion is that this really did not have anything to do with Donald Trump like yes, there was this fight over upon a care. The Republican Obamacare appeal bill would have ended the Medicaid expansion, but as just an issue in Maine. This was not an issue where Trump came into play.
And I think and and then you see those big sort of gains- those lopsided margins on the favour of the liberal position here, because it is less of a sort of partisan, polarizing topic, as as as if its Democrat versus Republican or Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton. Add this just medicate expanse sin and dead it. It was easier for people to get behind it when it was kind of remove from the partisan. I believe there, some by partisan support for expanding Medicaid in Maine to its, not just purely a partisan thing. It is kind of the governor was just like going out of his way to stop this thing from happening. When the legislator, it passed it five times already
but then I think when we're thinking about what happens in twenty eighteen across the country, we do have to keep in mind that in Virginia you know as good it was for Democrats. This was a state that Hillary Clinton one by five points, and you know they are going to have to it- does seem that trumps approval has dropped in and that his viewed less positively in in many states income, including some red states, some states that he won by, but it's not necessarily clear that you know Anti Trump supercharged Democratic turn out. As of the sort that we did you see in Virginia will also come about in Michigan and Wisconsin.
And especially those you know that the Democratic Control Senate seeds that are in the very very red everybody mean from can lose fifteen points, the North Dakota and Mr Whitehead yeah, but you know I was sitting at this hour reminds me of- is that even after Trump wine, when people had thought he was, Can't do it, I think it was a bit of rewriting history of what it was pundits had been mistaken about.
And some people something like a hot? Nobody saw this enthusiasm for tromp among the rural white working class in the Midwest coming, but the reality is best I can tell going over. My notes is that we did see that coming and that what people thought was going to happen is that it was can be offset by a turn against tramp in the suburbs and, of course, was conceived in Michigan. They dont have cities metro areas that are as big as Washington DC, but Detroit from a walkie. Those aren't nothing fried like a lot of people live in those said is, and then a lot of people live in the suburbs of those cities. All states. The majority of the land area is were all, but the majority of the people live in the suburbs and one things we saw that there was this big shift. Hilary in some suburbs
the suburbs of Washington DC, also in the suburbs of Dallas, in the suburbs of New York in the suburbs of LOS Angeles. But it didn't really. He had been in that strong way in the suburbs of some of these smaller cities and more midwestern cities and an interesting question if Tom Pad ever performed expectations as president right, I think we would say clearly that switch is not going to happen in the midwestern supper. Swayed people had highlighted doubts about trumpets as president, in their very visible in the exit polls, even in states that he won, but from has set those doubts aside prove a rating is now four points higher than it was we say. Ok, you know people some people caught some people. Didn't love trump, took a risk on him and now they're pleased. Lucy is the opposite write. His approval ratings are lower than they previously were
and he has not altered the behaviour that people had doubts about. So I think in some ways of potentially decisive question for twenty eighteen is gonna, be like. Does that drop in the polls represent a turning of the midwestern suburbs in the same kind of way that we already saw in the more coastal ones right where people are saying this guy? It seems like he doesn't know what he's doing or is the feeling more lie? Fine, I mean I know one one person who I have almost no anecdotes about Americans will emerge
and that one will American, who I spoke to told me that he had voted for tromp somewhat reluctantly, because he seemed like an unstable maniac, but now here was six months later and this economic disaster and the trade wars and all this stuff, the Democrats said was gonna happen. None of it happened. Everything was fine in America. It's true that trumped as bad tweets, but, like fundamentally like there's, no reason you shouldn't back home I thought that guy was making some like that. That is a reason for position to me much more reasonable than the positions often outlined in these trunk country stories, but by brought a waiting numbers. It seems like not that many people have that feeling. Well what. We want to bring up also is there another candidate in the twenty? Sixteen election named Hillary Clinton, who is- no longer on the ballot, despite Fox NEWS and and the president's
that's the truth is the one who did bagasse right here with their view marrying her up at every possible moment. But if we are thinking about what pundits got wrong before the election, I do think that you know part of what they got run was related to Trump and trumps appeal, but I think another thing that pundits really kind of mist- maybe not all pundits but but the extent to which the Clinton the Clinton is corrupt narrative, was a big problem. I mean, I guess this. This was something that actually mainstream pundits, did focus lot on it and helped
advanced that narrative bite, but democratic, leaning, pundits too, who wanted to kind of you know, argue that this scandal was no big deal, that it was nothing that voters. Liberals overlook the lesson of the ninety ninety eight collection, which was normal people, don't care about conservative hysteria. About Clinton scandals by then turns out and of journalistic biased towards smoking guns. Let a lot of people to note the Abbe, of a smoking gun and understate the kind of power of repeated us the Asian of Clinton and corruption and e mails and there being something there yet and it, and it turned out that you know- I think if you said these things in the abstract, with the names of the candidates evolved taken away like A candidate beat for president being under a major FBI. Investigation is not a good thing. It was not a good thing when it was Hillary Clinton and she was trying to you now appeal to,
working class voters, and it's not a good thing when it's Donald Trump and doubt himself under investigation for this robber, Robert Mahler Probe, and I think that you know the power of not having a candidate who has just been so closely tied in voters, mines to these scandals, not not just even for the emails in twenty sixteen, but but for decades of sort of Clinton, related baggage- and you know her defender- will say, there's nothing to most of those scandals, but but it was a real thing in voters. Mines in that the FBI investigation was a real thing and I think that
Democrats really underestimated how much that would hurt them. Conversely, Hillary Clinton is no longer a democratic candidate for office, and there the same sort of playbook may not work any more. I think that bit basically one one thing: everyone wants to reach for the twenty sixteen election explanations that are about Donald Trump, because he is like the weirdest part of this and and seems to need the most explanation, but I do I think that explanations focusing on Clinton's own baggage. You know why might voters in
in Michigan and was cod sand in Pennsylvania, White voters SAM Mean way swing towards tromp, rather than Clinton. Part of that is about race. You know the economic anxiety thing has been tossed around made fun of sometimes, but but part of it is also, I think, about scandal, and that she was, you know Trump effectively branded her crooked Hilary and there was the FBI investigation, and I think that in particular, but now Democrats are liberated from no longer will be you know. Ralph north them did not hugely differ from Hilary Curtains policy platform where he differed is that he was out and brought in any scandal. Speaking of scandal, do we want to talk a little bit about New Jersey and particularly the back a bit
We sit here the jury and is currently deliberating whether Senator from New Jersey should be convicted of unravelling charges. Yemeni, we should mention as Democrats also one governors race in New Jersey that was widely expected. I think came complex, Oh, I think, actually put on a fairly impressive performance, getting forty two percent of the vote that matches Donald Trump performance in the state. Even though Trump's numbers have gone down since the election, even though Chris Christie is What is a prerequisite for our something's period has varied, characteristically spending. Some day picking a fight the voter in line at the pulling plates, but yeah, but ones it was good I'm. So this sort of this basically ascended seat at stake in this well. What's happening is that
Menendez was indicted back when Obama was present in this trial has spent years in the making and he's he's been charged with corruption related to his relationship with a Florida. I die, turning Doktor Solomon Megaton and they took trips together. Melvin you no help pay for his hotel rooms in. And they minetta especially try to use his office to do some governmental favours from melt. It doesnt seem necessarily that he succeeded he. He did a few things. He Try to get visas for Melians girlfriends, three different girlfriends. In fact he
but but more concerning, I think than that from a sort of legal perspective is m. That melians medical practice was having this big billing dispute with Medicare at which, big money, was at stake, so Mendez was sort of contacting certain officials in the executive branch and making the case that better care was wrong and in the position they were taking with regard to mountains, business and in Beit, basically arguing that hey, you know, let him off again in one of the big questions at stake in this trial is whether that really ah meets the definition of corruption way by means of this, the Supreme Court has narrowed the scope of what constitutes corruption legally speaking, so the things I I think them
I am sure we will be comfortable, saying if a guy giving you lots of valuable gifts and then you're out go into bad for him and helping has corrupt medical practice when some regulatory fights, though, like that corruption, but in the exciting new posts, bobbing dial era. Potentially, it's not corruption. If you can make the case that look, Writing letters and making phone calls to executive branch officials is not an official act of Office of the United States. Senator yeah. There is this in this little joke. You thing that Enviro on Twitter this week. The jury is currently meeting to try to come up with a conclusion on these charges and they sent back a question to the judge.
It went along the lines of you, don't what is senator and then, like everyone else. Well, you know this dump jury, but it does sort of get to the heart of the legal question here, which is that they seem to have been trying to ask what Lee official duties of a senator war, because one of the arguments that Menendez is T made in his defence was that, while he didn't, he didn't actually take any votes that can be paid. To Doktor, Simon Belgian, in any way like that. No once alleging that- and that is the kind of the main thing senator does- is to take votes what he did was. Instead, you know outreach behind the scenes. He at one point threaten to hold a hearing and on this Medicare issue, but he didn't end up actually holding the hearing, and you know, is that an official act and
I think, there's also this issue where men and ass his lawyers have been arguing that you know as a U S, senator he doesn't just represent New Jersey. He represents the whole country in a way this Florida, I doktor, is his constituent, so when he is trying to get do some favours. For him intervene on his behalf for the government he's really just you know. He represents all american and and he's trying to help out his. Situate seems like a bit of a stretch to me by this, with juries, trying to figure out no reasonable doubt amaze. An amazing thing. We should talk about what happens after em. You know this evening. Convict So if he is convicted, Republicans have been gearing up for a big pressure campaign on Democrats to vote
to expel him. His conviction would not remove him from the Senate and he would almost surely appeal it. So he would it be like you have sent to prison immediately, but. But in the past, when senators had been convicted theyve some of them have chosen to resign and charges like this. Some of them have you now stuck it out a little bit, but but maybe eventually caved in chose to resign or there could be an expulsion vote, but the problem is to actually expel a senator. You need a too thirds vote from the Senate and Republicans only have fifty. Fifty two sided seats right now, so they would need to win over fifteen Democrats, so it doesn't seem like this happen, because Phil Murphy, the democratic just one, the New Jersey Governors race, to succeed Chris Christie and
he won't actually be sworn in until January. So, basically, if there is a vacancy, either through expulsion or through Menendez, just choosing to resign before MID January than Chris Christie would fill the sea and he would fill it with Republican. Who would potentially be the elusive final vote too? ass, Obamacare repeal it would be a huge and Democrats really, it seems likely they just can't let this happen and what they'll instead try to? You is stone wall on this until Murphy, a sworn in and Murphy's Democrats, so he would just if Menendez is expelled or chooses to resign. Murphy images replace them with another Democrat and it would be no big deal, but it will just be kind of embarrassing for the party to like you know, defend,
if he is convicted, keeping their serve corrupt guy and off as required lot now that I'm going to assume logical consistency from politicians. But can someone explain to me? Is there any argument that lame duck? Chris Christie, who, in a literally there has been an election we know who is successor, is going to be, should be allowed to appoint a? U s senator, but Barack Obama should not have been allowed to. Pointed Supreme Court, just as in the march of twenty sixteen heading of your looking for logical consistency here, you will necessarily find it what this is really about is getting, lot of democratic senators in tough races next year on the record, either voting against expelling a convicted fell from the Senate or just trying to sort of or or voting NAM.
We're just like causing trouble for the democratic other. I just I feel it is a little bit over hyped right that if Menendez is convicted and he agrees to resign, he can write a letter, right, in which he says like I am resigning effective January twenty years, a lot of people think that is what will happen I mean, maybe he what maybe Menendez will create a problem for Democrats, but if he plays a law on an issue such a letter, then I don't think it's like that tough of evoked fer. You know somebody else to be like yeah Let's not expel him he's resigning effect of general read to say, like he has resigned right, like he has resigned, and that is why I am not expelling him and then just pay like what business Republicans trying to steal That said, I think it would be really tough right if, if New Jersey, hadn't just had this election right
if see in New Jersey was had its election at the regular mid terms. You are talking about a running you ve done about running the clock out a whole year, then, like Democrats would have a real problem, but since we're talking about two months, most of which is consumed by Christmas and thanks giving anyway The election has already taken place. It just seems, like you know this queue of Republicans, I mean you know. No one should be begrudged their opportunity to try to make people taken embarrassing vote or something, but it's like it's a really pretty clear cut. As far as these things go, the difficulty is like, if men and as choosing to be a jerk and is like sank, human vacant see at all is appealing. I do agree that it's over hyped, I say only because you need two thirds to expel so Democrats can actually afford to let you know ten red star.
You know there are ten most voted, no more yeah yeah a little higher depending on whether and if you know, ran Paul's gotta get out of the hospital. I mean there's like a lot of gear. What I'm saying it might show me answered and highly high camp might in mind. The worst thing in the world for then to cast over to expel, corrupted New Jersey, I have a shared sense of humour- can pretend to be really mad at them. He couldn't have like a huge screaming Madge I gotta be great, but as long as most of the democratic cockiness who are generally in safe seats or not up for reelection for a long time stay in line, then it's not really gonna, be in serious danger of happiness, expulsion, happen and also get out. This is the Amber twenty seventeen, the mid term elections are full year away. Many.
Many things are going to have been in the news between now and then as hard for me to believe that a vote on whether to expel bombing and as from the Senate will be among. The top issues on voters minds after another year of Donald Trump by them? prediction to hold you to try with that, I think we're gonna be expelled from the studio soon as thank STAR in and Andrew for listening, I think too. We shall we aren't you, dear page. Vieira editor Bird Pinkerton the producer and the sub. So if you're interested in these or other exciting poet policy topic. I encourage you to check out the weeds Facebook group without a lot of great discussions happening there. Thanks for that I will be back.
Transcript generated on 2021-09-12.