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Republicans Are Losing Their Midterm Advantage

2018-11-04 | 🔗

Republicans Are Losing Their Midterm Advantage. Though they still do have a gain of around 400k votes above the Democrats, Republicans percentage lead compared to 2014 is much lower.This may be due to a massive increase in young voters and new voters. According to early voter data Democrats have gained 1.1M votes among the youth demo compared to about 500k for Republicans.If Early voter turnout favors Republicans this could be Good news for Democrats going into Tuesday.

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
According to the latest poles, the Republicans are still expected to lose the house majority, but retain the Senate. The issue is the Poles were in twenty sixteen when it came down Trump, and I can't imagine that these polling companies have updated their methodology to come act it for the mistakes they made in twenty. Sixteen, the predictions were wrong. The poles were wrong, however, early voting data suggests, Republicans may be losing their edge a couple weeks ago, her that an early and absentee voting Republicans had a hugely, but, according to the latest data, it looks like their percentage lead over. The Democrats compared to the last men term is actually much much. Our, so perhaps all of the rhetoric and all the media has really riled people up to get out and vote That's why we're seeing record early voting turn out. However, young people are turning out in massive numbers, and this could be bad news for Republicans, because young people tend to vote Democrats today. Let's take a
all of the relevant data and asked the question: are the pools wrong again or are the poles being proven right, by the latest avoided started. Please, however, Patria not come aboard slashed him cast, helps upon my word patrons of the back the content. I creates of your fan of these videos and you want to see more and had over two patriarch dotcom forwards. Lashed him cast become a patron today from the hill a new voters surge in early voting. Hundreds of thousands of new voters are shoving up to cast their ballots early in the weeks before the mid term elections feeling democratic hopes that a younger allow it may help them over the finish line in key states. The number of voters between the ages of eighteen and twenty nine who have cast about early has surpassed turnout levels from the last midterm election in just
every state. According to several sources, tracking early vote totals the youth vote is higher than two thousand and fourteen so far, but so few young people have voted at this point. It is not hard to double the numbers said, Michael Mcdonald, a University of Florida, political scientist who tracks early voting totals young people tend to vote, larger numbers during the week prior to the election and we're seeing some evidence that young people are indeed starting to turn out? They say that, according to a Harvard pole, younger voters favoured Democrats over Republicans in the battle for Congress by sixty six, percent to thirty two percent margin and similar data is found when we go to Pew Internet Research, millennial men. Forty nine percent are Democrat. Forty one percent Republican and among millennia, women. The gap is even more staggering. Seventy percent of millennium and identify as Democrats and only twenty three percent identified as Republican, which means if the earth
voting numbers are accurate. The Democrats have a huge advantage as of right now, even though republicans are outpacing them in terms of early voting. The interesting point to make out is that, according to that, other articles the hell young people are turning out for early voting, but it's not hard to double those numbers because they don't come out very often as it is will we see a massive voter turnout for the actual Davy election? Where's my protection, if forcing early voter turnout for young people than will probably see the same thing on election day. However, according to one point in the hill. Only four and ten young voters say they will definitely vote. Forty percent of young Americans said they will definitely vote in this year's mid term elections which, if true, would be more than a number who voted in the last two midterms. According to a pole, released Monday Add it remains to be seen if voter interest among young Americans will translate to voter turn out the Harvard Pull noted that mid term turn up Young Americans has surpassed twenty percent just twice since nineteen eighty six, so
Here we have early voting data from a group called target. Smart and full disclosure target. Smart appears to be a democratic data analytics company. So perhaps they favour the Democrats in terms of how they break things down just keep that mine, but we're gonna look at their data because I believe there did. It does come from each state's early voter data, but real quick. Let's take a look at the current poles according to real clear politics. The aggregate shows Democrats are expected to take two hundred two seats. Republicans one hundred ninety six eat but thirty seven are toss up? They could really go either way. Now, according to their data, the Republicans are facing a larger risk than democrats are. There are many more seats that are considered toss up towards Republicans, then Democrats. So if the data from targets more is accurate, it looks like a Democrats might take a huge lead,
when it comes to young people as of right. Now we can see right here that the G o P, as modeled by target smart, has an advantage of around four hundred thousand votes in early voting. What's interesting, is that when you compare those numbers to two thousand fourteen, where the total was twenty. Two we can see based on all of this data down here, that the percentage the GNP leaves of the Democrats is actually much lower. When you combine the totals of the model Democrats versus GEO Pe, they had close to a ten percent lead and twenty fourteen, but only around a two point. Five percent lead as ever now. That's an important point, because republicans are typically ahead of Democrats in early and absentee voting. That was true and twenty fourteen. The Democrats get a bigger post when it comes to in person voting if their lead has shrunk. This much it looks like Democrats are starting to encroach on the edge. The Republicans add. This could be badness Republicans but what's really interesting. The increase voter turnout among young people, favorites Democrats and it's a pretty massive turnout in twenty fourteen. The model dams was five hundred and fifty nine thirty.
it's one point: one million votes higher as at the same time, its one point. million votes higher among thirty thirty. Nine, about a million votes higher among forty to forty, nine Republicans only made again about five hundred thousand from eighteen to twenty nine, thirty, two thirty nine and just I have a million when it comes to forty to forty nine, it's the fifty two sixty four sixty five plus demographics, that lean in favour of the Republicans, but only by about twenty percent. Each here is the bad news for publicans early voter turnout tend to favour. Republicans Democrats are favoured when it comes to in person voting. That means if this data is a reflection of who is going to turn out, and the Democrats are seeing a two to one advantage and early voting among young people. Young people might actually turn out in large numbers and have a huge impact on the mid term. but there are other important factors taken. First of all, most of the early voting has come from white people, and this makes it
considering why people are the majority of the country, but there the only demographic to lean in favour of the Republicans african american asian Hispanic other and unclouded all leave town. The Democrats and even among gender men lean republican women lean Democrat? This is exactly what we expected based on. The data men tend to be republican accord, The pew research, a lot of people are saying the mid terms. Our referendum on Donald Trump Midterms tend to be a reference. On the current job of the president's, I don't think. That's necessarily true. I think this is all about the culture war, most people who don't like Donald Trump, don't like him for cultural reasons. When you talk to people, it's because he's racist or his rhetoric is battery, encourages violence. There not really talking about his policy for the most part and a lot of policies they do criticise, have been in place for a really long time when it comes to foreign policy and drawn bombing that all existed before Trump. When it comes to the border and family separation, it existed before Trump Nature.
It's definitely stronger on immigration and the ideas towards immigration. Among Democrats are changing so that may be effective, but for the most part, I think what we're seeing when it comes to race and gender is that this really is about identity politics and the culture war. Why is it that among millennials white men tend to be much more in favour of Republicans than millennia women, although millennia, an hour more likely be Democrats, I think answer is simple: you as somebody here rhetoric from the mainstream left talking about white man and white privilege in these ideas that can threaten or insult young white man and when they pushed the idea that white people have an inherent advantage over other people, they kind of misconstrue which actually go You can't make the argument that a minority millionaire has less privilege, then a homeless white person. They seem to miss, understand the ideas of class, and thus we end up seeing wealthy, progressive and celebrities who tend to be white, talking down to working class, whites and one of the reasons Donald Trump carried states he probably shouldn't have, is because Hillary Clinton wasn't communicating
with the working class of this country, and it is widely believed among a lot of people that working class whites were abandoned by the Democrats, now hear something find really interesting about the young people who are turning out to vote for trouble. What I see when it comes to this internet culture of meaning and funny jokes and you know, tricking, the present reporting things like it's ok to be white is some kind of racist symbol. What says to me is that it's me less about trump- and this is one of the reasons why I believe is a culture war battle, younger people who are on the internet playing these games and making this means are more likely to view this like a mission that they want to see their internet. Our personified in real life. They wanna see the meme magic that the jokes they spread on the internet can turn him something real I've seen this happen since the dawn of fortune. There was a fortune operation called operation King cone of years ago, and the sound
like the most irrelevant story ever but hear me up. The goal was unfortunate, with numerous threats to figure out how just through the internet, someone could make a street cone far, over. It seems inane and nonsensical what people on Fourchan were desperate to make it happen and eventually some that what they are doing there watching this webcam of time squareness had come on. Somebody figure how to knock this over people were ordering pizzas People were calling other people in New York turning it and do it. Eventually, someone walked up knocked. The cone over. This threat was being reposted nonstop over twenty four hours, and it seems to make no sense who cares why?
Someone want to go on a forum, just a knock over a street come but then think about how that plays into the larger rum of politics, getting a president elected winning the mid terms. This is much more impact. Full and people want to win so there on a mission is an operation. They have a desire to go out and make sure they do this. They can win, and while I think there are not many people who hold this idea or participate in these kinds of forums, most of these people, I'd imagine are definitely going to go out and vote if they can, because young people. They want to play the game and they want to win. They want to show that a collective they have the power. So I think that, although we are seeing more young people cannot voting Democrat for sure you shouldn't discount the young people who will come out and vote for them. Publicans. Ultimately, however, I think this is breaking down into one simple idea: identity, politics: why is it, A lot of centre left individuals are unhappy with the with the Democrats. It's because almost all of them embrace identity, politics and people. Like me, look
I dont want to vote for Democrats who are willing to get behind racist policies. What the left does is, instead of addressing the racism they just say. Racism mean something else all they're doing is brushing and under the rug. By saying that word mean something different, but racial discrimination is a real problem and it's not something on a fan of. Why, because I grew up in a mixed race neighbourhood with with mixed race, friends and mixed waste families, and I don't take kindly two people who would insult deride or diminish my friends, whoever they are based on their race and that's what I see coming from the Democratic Party now the Republicans for sure have their fair share of racist. Spite by all Of course they do, but the moderates are willing to call that out and say no to this. What we end up seeing is Republicans will all about meritocracy regardless of race and the Democrats. So all about equity based on your race- and this is what I think this vote comes down to. Why is it that Republicans tend to be white men, because white men are having the finger pointed at them as the problem?
and there you have it. I don't think this is about Donald Trouble- will see what happens. Young people are turning out in huge numbers. This could be bad news for Republicans if young people dont come out and vote for Republicans, but unfortunately, the commons below keep a conversation going. How do you feel about this? Do you think the data is still wrong, because what the point is the Poles can be wrong. The predictions can be wrong, but we're looking at Rob Odor data right here and I get a target. Smart is a democratic advocacy data collection site, so maybe they're just slanting in their favour to try and convince all the Democrats, they're gonna win that could be true to, but I don't think that's the case. I think this data is. sparely sound and its being cited foreign wide. If this data is true, it could spell bad news for the Republicans, because they're losing their edge The gains they have over Democrats are not nearly as high as they wore percentage wise in twenty fourteen. So again, coming below will keep a conversation going. You can follow me on Twitter at TIM, cast, stay tuned, new videos
read at four p m, and I ve got more videos coming up on my second channel. You, too got com slashed him cast new starting at six p m. Again, that's rang out. I'll see you next time.
Transcript generated on 2020-10-25.