There’s no denying that we are part of a significant inflection point in human history. We are truly living in interesting times...
In this episode, Tony speaks with historian and demographer Neil Howe about the fascinating patterns of human history, as he and co-author William Strauss explained more than two decades ago in Generations (1991) and The Fourth Turning (1997).
If you’re feeling stressed, overwhelmed, or uncertain about all that’s happening in the world, this episode will give you a much-needed shift in perspective. You will understand how cycles of crisis catalyze massive economic, cultural, political, and institutional disruption – and how as a society, we solve problems we never thought we could before.
No storm lasts forever, and this too shall pass. Listen to this episode for Neil’s predictions on how much longer this crisis period will last and what we can look forward to in our beautiful, shared future.
To watch the interview, which took place in 2022 in front of a small audience, go here: https://youtu.be/lX1Csk2vn5A
[0:05] Tony was working with President Bill Clinton when he was first told about the book Generations
[2:46] The stages of our lives: childhood, young adult, mid-life, elder
[6:31] The seasons of history and how they overlap with generations
[8:15] Tony welcomes Neil Howe, co-author of Generations, and The Fourth Turning
[10:25] Generations are distinct and always have been
[10:45] How old you are during a big event shapes your experience of it
[12:50] Knife-age division vs. zones of transition (EX. X-ennials)
[13:45] History shapes generations, but (later on) generations shape history
[16:09] The cyclical nature of crises and how they spur “a total remake”
[18:29] Institutions we rely on today were created post-WWII
[20:01] Why do we wait until there is a crisis to solve problems?
[22:10] 1780s economic depression: We created the Constitution in our darkest hour
[24:18] What comes next: The High, collective, feeling more than the sum of our parts
[26:38] The Awakening releases the individual
[27:57] Gen X was left alone and raised themselves = pragmatism & cynicism
[30:08] Silent Generation had to adjust themselves to meet others’ expectations
[31:08] We are in a time of growing tribalism in America
*Show notes continue on website page
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
We talk about before. Turning down. I was lucky enough back in eighteen, ninety three, ninety four, I had the privilege of working the present aid states bill Clinton and
You couldn't do this today, but.
Multimedia slaves working with a speaker, the house of gingrich. On the other side, I look
with the white house whenever boss,
ass the capital and worked on the other side on this,
day. Every day
I mentioned to you- is built. That was the first person told me about this book called generations by strauss and how and this book was basically
five hundred years of anglo american history.
and it showed that history is shaped by generations, and generations are shaped by history. It was a fascinating book and too
what about books written? I do not want that in twenty twenty they'll, be this crisis that
be facing and it was predicted because of how generations raise them.
Its generation how we-
interpret history, you of events, but their interpreted differently by different model. The world- and
and then in nineteen eighty seven I was going to borders bookstore one of those places, and I was going
the been where the non popular books arc is. On the contrary- and I felt so my favorite books in those places,
It was in that thing I'd marked down seventy percent or fifty percent a ridiculous. Somebody goes number I put in the burghers strauss now again and I picked up this book
and it's been one of the guide books for me to understand what the hell's happening in our-
ever since it really
help me understand the patterns, because, if you think about it, we talk about power,
patterns. What's the most powerful pounding the ball, you ve! Let me talk about it before
change, humanity that took us from star
being running, ruinous hunter gatherers to work
you stay in one place. It was one distinction. What was recognising the seasons.
understanding, see before that it was looked random. You planted
The winter you know is what do you just knew was cold and for some years,
It worked ass off. You got nothin for it and want to begin
look at here is like humanity once it understood the seasons and new when the plant, when not too, if you do the right thing
the when time we're gonna roared, you get zilch, nothing
so also numerically understood this and how we could stay in one place. We could build a community could build cities. We can build countries that one
distinction changed all of humanity. But
also the seasons of your own life. That's so valuable member states think about it.
four seasons of your life zero,
the twenty roughly is your spring time, but that
You're learning your growing probably protected your absorbing things. At this stage.
some people starts at sixteen fourteen, some say: nineteen twenty
what's this coordinated twenty one you enter a given
stage of life, you become
the soldier of life you into the summer time twenty one
the forty one,
different stages in it, now
if you go out in the world and say I'm going to test this stuff, I was told all the shit what's true and you think you're going to be
a billion error ten times billionaire and you're gonna be press united states and uganda
your relationships and it's all gonna work out smoothly and then you get
first relationship and discover? None of that shit is true. You start
I understand that you have vulnerabilities, find out you're, not invincible. So this year,
Adult adulthood is testing in discovering just trying to figure out what
really real. That's when we learn a lot.
And usually at summer, is painful, because it's not quite what we expected by Europe
soldiers society, quite literally that's rare soldiers- are right. Twenty one to forty one, usually are you. The person
goes the war you're the person, that's out there doing the hard work now. Have you really?
ruined spring any really grew in summer, then
the fair the autumn and that means
forty to sixty two, is a real reaping time. If you ve grown, you do not
like if you don't plant in the spring, you gonna win
The fall you're not to rebrand the far right, but
you pushed through the hot summers difficult time, those twenty one to forty one. By the way, when you ask people what they all the research on people what's the matter
the unhappy time of their life, it's that two decades not forever human, but from
strive for yahoo. They how you are pretty yourself, make it through all the bullshit trying to fit
what's going on in your life, but when you get to forty two to sixty two again, if you wrote, if you're, not groaned, you're kind of stunted, there's not much crop, but
You really in your midlife power and you get
start to have a harvest time. This is for a lot of you.
But the greatest financial time of their life because they built
not understanding, and they worked hard and developed skill sets and now their position
running an organization. They start to really good,
to expand, and then
the three to eighty three
think of as winter and eighty three to one hundred
twenty is the oldest living humans. If your fortune,
maybe you have an extended winter, but
Stage, you really end up being a leader whose really there's a mentor. That's really
The position you read
when I love most now. It's like the example.
If you are playing a video game against a child.
You know there's also is going to win and it's like us are standard, smarter, it's because they play this game a million times. They know the first
bad guys here than next bad guys here make bad guys here so there,
but to do something really important as this is. What today is all about. If you want it simple phrase and too
The patient is power and tissue.
asian is power lead,
If you and I are gonna- have great quality of life for our families, for our communities.
for anybody we want to serve our job is to end.
Do that you gotta
Obese seasons of your life are precious. Every season airs different challenges, right,
How many members of the challenges of the spring time of your life,
I remember some of the challenges of the summer. At that stage of things you wrestled with some are still there
how many member the fall experiences right so ever
It was the opportunity every challenge and if you could anticipate the challenge you can make that sees have a lot more enjoyable. So there
the patterns of nature-
the patterns of your life, seasons of your life and what we look
this morning is seasons of history.
because if you understand the seasons history interact with what stage of life you ran like,
some of you, some people,
twenty years, when they experience winter historical,
cause. There's one about every eighty years and you'll see shortly
And so some people enter winter in midlife, some people do it at their power state, some people towards the end of life. If you have a full life, you can experience all four seasons
all of us and our food to Caesar's wife, meaning you're spring zero
twenty or twenty one and forty two are getting, the experience and awakening in
within a country around values like you saw,
the sixtys and seventys, or you
experience or crisis right because that's the cycle,
everyone experiences, but depends.
when you generation experiences, that that
shapes the way you look at life, the way you interact and what you do, but it might be nice to anticipate where that is so
Barely seasons want to give me the big picture.
We have begun, the seasons of nature, the seasons of your life and the sea
as if history,
understand them? You start to be able to predict so this book and nineteen
to my team, one says in twenty twenty we're gonna have this giant crisis, but in the four
Turning its even more specific are some of the prophecies that were there was going to use that there will be twenty five years
it will be. A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft,
be an impasse, a federal budgets, the reaches a stalemate with a government shut down, they'll be anarchy,
within the former soviet republic, and russia is going to conduct training exercise on its borders and the cdc he's gonna announce a new communicable virus that could take down the world twenty five years ago so
pick up this bugger so obsessed with it, I flew
to meet these two authors in their home,
virginia and I interviewed them for a programme had called power, talk, raised interview, people and,
I was thirty seven years old- are now sixty two and we
The privilege to have here in person, one of those
others have passed away, but we hear when MR, how please get big hand for one of the great authors meal, how hated them back? Why do people read your book? Some people have not
the top. I try to give the giant pattern to save times. We begin to some of the more deeper pieces but ghip
interesting. How this all came about. I mean you're, you're, you've got
expertise is a story and expertise and finance give people. Since how did you
first come across these discoveries together for generations.
Before turning come about.
This was this is bad.
In the late eighties so long time ago, and.
bill, and I were looking at generational differences, I mean or a boomers right
obsessed regeneration of every week
We all know that there has been no generational like us, since the planet was, you know first created so, and we looked back. We said where their other times it. This has ever happened.
A big promethean were winning generation right that completely reshaped america, these various
self centered, idealistic, kids growing up and then
where's at that time, we are aware that this generation, coming up after us, cynical, pragmatic right extreme
yeah general germination acts really was
there there there any further money at all
they just hated yuppies
disco, they headed yuppies, but we went back and found that this had happened,
again and again, and not only it had happened before we went all the way back to the great migration into england back in the sixteen thirties and looked at this entire panorama of how many centuries and down again and again, not only were generations rate, distinct and people at the time understood that generations were different. This is this: the myth that you know, generational differences are just a product of
our age, not true, and what we found that each generation as a different location in history. That makes all the difference, because it's how old
Who are when a bigger that hit that shape?
how are you learn about it right now for a child during a big
dramatic about. What's your job
your social role.
stay out of the way, don't bother adults,
keep it to yourself, because no one wants to area complaints be helpful right
it's generally. A letter or oppression goes on. A monk gets talk about the silent generation. Did it ever want to know why, Joe
You know that the whole group,
is so bad early, so over socialize, so
consider it so nice. This is the nice
This generation of eighty something's, wherever gazeta life, that you were
boomers reach their eighties you're
good, I want to say a load of them on the street. I bet they're nice today why every every phase of law?
they went through. They ve been nice.
They were nice. Thirty something's. They were nice, forty if they were protected, big cousin, correct that they had to keep it to themselves. They had to be. There were over socialized during the time of war, but this has happened since the beginning. Now, if you're, just over the age of service,
This is why even one year of birth and exploring
what you wrote your book! I remember reading this grab me during the vietnam war of your boy,
in July, or just gives me December thirty. First, at eleven, fifty nine versus jan
refers to twelve or one. What's you get sorted, indifferent school classrooms right that determines which
class. You are that determines whether you got a warrant or that that
and whether you are laid off at your first job or not, and we know economist, tell us all the time that makes huge lifecycle differ.
says and how you later succeed, economic, whether you were drafted or not, could be by one minute of birth. Exactly so, you do have generation now
Not all generations have this, you don't knife age division. Occasionally you have these. You out these caught up in a zones of transition.
I know you have a lot yeah a lot of early wave of millennials today, people in there you know are:
early eighties. Maybe eighty point, eighty three, eighty four, the colors of ex ante elles.
because they're millennials their shelter
I'll start everything is nice, but they just old enough to remember when things work that sheltered so
general, even within generations, generations can be generation trends, but my main point is that every role of every
you're. Your role of life in your age determines how you reactor that event and then, as you move, to see older events that actually determines which of them
it's you are likely trigger. As you get older and reach the age of leadership, you become leader.
Of a political institution. You become. You know parents, if your family, your creating decisions in the community.
So the overall lesson is history, shapes generations gun, but that generate
since, as I got older shape history, so it's a complete circle of life is going on, in fact,
the big lesson of generations is that that the seasons of life you're talking about
who you are and how history works is determined by the overlap between your seasons of your life and the seasons of history. So we looked at this. We found that, for instance, we had constantly found that when you have this, this hero generation got. You know that that completely reshapes a society goes through a major
war society publicly reshapes, who it is that you have this generation born after the word, that's that's very rebellious, idealistic and so on and and and knows nothing but
floods and then the generation just after them is the same
a girl- you know detached anyway- you see-
is it going to get so? What we learned from that tony is that this is actually tied to a cycle of history itself. It's not just a cycle of generation cycle of history, think about it, the great civic remaking of american history. I mean, if you want to go back and I'm talking about colonial history too, but one of the first great makeovers of our kind of civic identity. A lot of it happened in england at the time of course, at that time, late, seventeenth century, you know all of the images
in the old were almost entirely speaking. In fact, a lot of them actually were immigrants about. Half of them are still imogen, but my point is: is that the glorious revolution- and there was
an enormous rebellion in the colonies to it all happened in the sixteen seventy sixteen eighties. That was the first enormous crisis in american history and it was a time of great war. Two were at war with new france or the the the french had settled over all over canada
so that was the first great crisis and then about eighty. Nine years later we had the american revolution
Nine years later we had the civil war, and I think I need not describe what the civil war was for america right, but absolute, even absolute numbers forget you're the popular
by far the most deadly deadlier than all the other complex combined and then
eighty or ninety of later the girl to depression, world or two.
they are not easily, let not years later guess what we're right here,
we're right here and we started with a g of sea and you're right, but recent crises have started with economic downturns
and then they later precede the other kind of system, breakdowns and finally, toward the climax of the crisis.
You suddenly decide the leadership decides the entire communities sides. Do you have to read
make everything you can't just solve this problem that problem
all these to re, may be remade and by the end of world war, two empty
was going on. I is last inaugural address, which was early on in in nineteen forty five. He basically said
Total war total community total he was.
How hiding get there is. There is no word smith,
then there are saying, go easy. That public doesn't want to hear the bad news. Now he was saying: there's gotta be more
Asia, they're gonna, be more deaths, get ready for we're reshaping the world. Things would have been unimaginable back even in the late nineteenth. Thirty's
and by the way, the late nineteenth thirties, most young people
still sunny oxford bludgeon college campuses, declaring them
we got a war, everyone thought about world war, one were horrible experience that was right, we'll never go to war. Well, there were all the
why now we're getting
make the world commerce is gonna, be
refashion world peace is gonna, be Rita.
We're gonna remake the world rules of the world
not just of american society? So by the end of that crisis, we reshaped
humanity's relationship, but technology, my god, we created the eight bomb which is fairly what put an end to the war joy at atomic technology. We
I would produce the rest of the world combined in this country, so we became you know, as winston churchill said, the end of the war america stands at the summit of the world. Today. Right I mean he he was amazed. We reshaped the relation between government and the economy. Obviously we reshaped the political role of citizen and nation, so the g I generation became a generation of citizen soldiers
until the day they died, but this huge reshaping, which is aimed at extending the world what happened after world war, two where we found it, you know they, the though
The world bank me they. I m F, the united nations reaches all of these institute
nato. All of these things we have today.
we have been living for decades on institutions and infrastructure founded that and by the way tony. This reminds me cause. You had a question you asked me, you know ripe for the event. You said why don't we solve these problems in better times? Yes right, why do we wait till it's a crisis? Why do we wait until it's a crisis and it's interesting? You can look at all of america
history as a series of punctuated equilibrium. We solve all of our problems when
conditions are worst. I mean that,
Is that ironic that totally counter? And do it? I bid you Ass most people, wouldn't we just choose a problem that you dont like about amerika,
you're right. I don't care what it yet. I don't care whether, as you know, we we don't it.
Whereas immigration laws, you know our infrastructure, is it disgrace? I mean you, go to europe, foreign countries, now look at their airports compared to our I mean it doesn't matter where what you do right, whether you like it, you know social services and education today, whether young people are getting.
fleeced at universities. What used to be an escalator for generational prosperity is now I
a generator of generational debt for no purpose. But you
go and outrage after outrage, why don't we every solve these problems? Think ok! When are we going to do it? Well,
maybe on a sunny day. Maybe that's it we're just waiting for maybe a partisan
chip dies down, there's no recession. Everything is great right if you think about that. All the experts can
daddy, yet we all come around the table. So ok, I think at least this one problem will get a solution. Sounds reasonable, write it
ever ever happens that way tone it never happens that way. We solve all these problems.
Not on worm, sunny days, dark
why me days as when we solve these problems are backed into a corner their days like seventeen, seventy six, when Benjamin franklin was telling all of us
friends we gotta, hang together or we will all assuredly hang separately right and an that's what he was telling. Everyone has signed the declaration that past you know it. You just committed right. You ve committed treason. You know that
penalty, for that is, why is that and then, at the end of that period, which is one of the worst periods where the the seventeen eighties by the way was a period of economic depression? Worse than the thirties, worse than the thirty we had one hundred and fifty thousand americans leave, that would be the equivalent of seven million americans today. Simply you know these were the
nor is the american revolution. By the way was a civil war. It wasn't just a revolution, it was us
civil wherever american against american. Many of them laughed particularly the professional classes below.
Yeah, yeah and, and they all economy was in ruins. America actually fled the city's back to their country. That's how bad things where this sentence,
seventeen eighty. So what do they do? That crisis? We invented a whole constitution,
I mean that was the miracle of seventeen. Eighty seven right. We designed our constitution in that dark hour.
what over the next several decades, we are growing problems. We have problems with tariffs, we are probably nullifies asian. We have problems with them.
A foreign policy and, above all, we had the whole problem of slavery.
Did we do anything about it, peace and prosperity that we had?
no. We didn't do anything about it. It was
all solve in aid. Eighteen,
sixty one eighteen, sixty five
four years of total war, when
people were huddling in washington. Dc fearful
The d were about to be invaded. At times I mean present
lincoln was suspending habeas corpus. He was rounding up and jailing thanks
people without you know illegally within I'm italian, but the charges were so. We had a real crisis in america right,
remember when I was in junior high school, I had an shop type teacher and
he was reading. It reminded me of your book because one of the great things about fourth turning and if you haven't read it still watch it make sure you read it you'll, be read.
Your passage from an article from the new york times and you'll. Think
from today in its from eighty years ago, and then you read another one is modern sixty years ago. Why? I remember
He was reading. This article is all about were run.
oil, because I was growing up in the seventies and there were the lines, some you're old enough to remember you at the light
wait. I do have a car you remember is ever going to have one.
you know the number on the back or even a term where you could get DAS that day, that's about it was river, and so
at this whole article from the new york times about oil, radebe oil and the darkening of the world and how the whole world's going to go to shit in the end, it was from eighty years before it was whale oil. When we were
based on well- or maybe it's like you don't ever been saying. You know that
these the mother revenge and where we have to we find answers and by the way, how many of them into your own life. When you have to write, that's when most people that now we were to do it more proactively but craig,
This creates a breakthrough but doesn't kill. You agree to break through and historically that's been true,
what's the breath is a crisis? In essence, is what you're telling us? The purpose of the crisis is: that's how we transform it is that we transfer, but there is a different nature to the transformation as you go through
the cycle up right, you please what would you that if yak as I think we need to focus on that, I'm exeter coming out of the coming out of the crisis, you go into that? What we call the high does the spring right, the high
I, like the american, I that was actually a william o neill famous. U s historian. He actually described the ears. Nineteen, forty six to nineteen sixty four as the american high.
many of you, if you have lived through like like, I did as a kid you you can't. I know what I'm talking about a period when the nation felt very optimistic, but in a certain way, and by the way african americans is interesting, terrible period from four them from the vanishing
the civil rights are for the event by like, but actually in terms of economic achievement, one of the best periods ever for african american. That's right in terms of you know, gay
instant family when they moved out of the south for one thing during world war, two as a single best thing that ever happened to an end anyway, so been a great time for america in many ways, and it was a time of terrific conformity, you didn't want to be someone left out of the mainstream. That was true, but it was also a time- and I think we so much business today when people felt that collectively there were more than the sum of
or parts, and I think today, tony coming out of the third turning kind of the opposite end and still today, early in the in the fourth turning. We feel that collectively we are less than the sum of our partner. How often do people say
there are such talented individuals out there and with any of us getting around any of us can do better than they jackass
they have their it was you d say I mean it's incredible: the incompetence in the dysfunction. How is it that they can?
it's so bad. It just take any random group of five. You envy all together that we can agree on shit right. So how does that happen? And and and it's a very different kind of problem?
That explains why we have awakenings and why we have crises, the awakening.
to release the individual, that's
do and awakening winter gets us to come together to fight. I battle. We become up
mystic, as we go through that crap anymore and were unified and we have this high living grows, but we
who's the individuals who now the individual needs the pop up. That's our summertime! That's how there's internal strife it's a very different kind of transformation. Now the gene
duration, that sometimes as a hard time with the awakening,
they're, all euro socialized to be conformist.
Lies to go along, so their torn right. There torn Jan exercise torn to today, but their turn in the opposite direction.
action, because gen xers and a lot of you are exerc, you know I defined exorcise born nineteen sixty one and eighteen eighty one birth year, you look at the census. Census bureau defines boomers those born eighteen, forty six to nineteen sixty four, I the census, did it just to reflect fertility rates, we're talking about social generations. We got through a lot of reasons why nineteen forty three to nineteen sixty makes a lot more sense, so we defend that. We still do so. What extra need to do x?
Is raised in an awakening you, you put it right like no one gave a damn about them. There are latch key kids, their parents. Were you now discovering themselves?
lot of them silent generation parents going through their bid life passages, and
Boy wondering my god I suddenly
discovering myself and and boomers were just having fun right and the
tire country was into self. This was you know the, but that the self revolution major an end so exercise or canada left alone, and they raise themselves right and so experts have been very used to and their lives just running their own lives and solving problems themselves, maybe with little groups of friends.
or a little workable arrangements if they have to, and that leads to the pragmatism. In this cynicism, a big broad national causes they ve never work,
for them and by the way, all these big institution
was to help everyone never help them mean
I gave it to him of our kids when there are young and as soon as they are
or graduating from provides school in eighteen. You know first one's nineteen, eighty one, eighty two nation at risk report came up,
which declared that this nation is never had such a generation of dumb kids. As jet actors, europe,
so gentle exercise these damn the left allowed under.
July's, the opposite of of silent generation right over there and so
and they said, that's, ok, that's all right, you're, half the like us!
We're just gonna go out and get things done our own way.
and our whatever our goals is, is to stay off. The community's radar screen
because the last thing we want it is to get regulated taxed identified. You know what I mean, so you have excerpts of the natural individuals because of the way they've been raised because of the season
at which they grow up. And you see this again and again in history, you were a child during awakenings you're used to taking life one on one on your rug, yep, so where's. The problem with the silent was moving from.
The group is everything the group, the sounds, duration, the fifties everything was about adjusting yourself to meet the expectations of others,
of his dale carnegie in europe being the kind of person that others wanted you to
who is all about the other direct itself, yet the social aspect, the opposite is true for exports. Just do your own thing right do the do you know
I just obey your thirst, I dunno whatever the hell it was. I do it just do it. So you got this exercise right, pragmatic, take care of themselves the thing you have to undergo the opposite adjustment and by the way, the piers
of john arabs in george washington had did the same thing and the peers of one or other of george pan. Any airy truman had to do the same thing he's were both craggy, pragmatic, individualistic children
left alone. They came of age during the roaring twenties a lot of them. They tended to be a republic
all their lives by the way, the last generation they they detested a big state there, but that figure
whatever you do during world war to everyone
banning the other. How does it in
visualized grow up were aghast at a time and communities, refining
itself, we are now at a time when groups are refining themselves were a time of growing tribalism in america, return with when everyone is going back
to the groups day. One sign of that extended generation families there everywhere today, everyone as is reverting back into the extended family right millennials I mean jeddak to be,
morag back home, millennials, don't boomerang back home, they relieved at leaves, and now you ve got older people coming
back to live at all. You know I had it all goes everyone-
is it that large, your homes have had their prices go up so and they are not coming back, never with millennials. Originally, we said it would be the many
It we got up in bright. They said they never buy real estate, they never going to foreign families. Are members people saying that going you don't understand generations
by my grace, I now either by it and then very often moving hunt with their parents, but they were
what larger how people did not. It is so large around look at tat, neighborhoods now look at political tribalism, which is growing unbelievable, thailand, america right red zone blues on these are now make
brands and people are self sorting across american. These these this is was very good for them. I want you to do help the x generation in this room, understandable,
It is here because, because
next generation was under protected and again I was that stage with nineteen sixty. But that's
I have the memories somewhere, my psyche, probably because it was recap every year in those days
kennedy the optimism that time
three years old was happening, but I was raised by myself. I raised myself at a figure it out. I had this optimism but the pragmatism, but
the way you raise your children, usually as a whole is different because, since you're under protected that became baby,
on board. If you looked at movies in the seventies baby
we're very different. They, like even little bastards like was rose, marries baby right. That it was. I omen,
Well, you know somebody's head twirling around the exorcist and suddenly it's three men and a baby baby. I'm bored talk a little bit about that transition. Why? Why why models are the way they are because
Mother, wrongly there's been raised differently, the golden age,
the child is double horror. Movies really lasted for about nineteen sixty five july nineteen.
It is to succeed
actually went exercise or small kids. I mean I was the most negative image of small kids in american history. There weren't
gee rated movies. There were there is that even the had five hundred miles justifying Benjy, but my play was so that
was. That was what was going on and I did
praise, you can do an end grab search if you want, but the phrase children are special
was literally no mention
Going all the way up to the late sixties, nineteen, seventy
tell about seventy seven. Seventy eight, no one ever wrote that phrase in a bubble
which so suddenly began rising and after nineteen, eighty two or three with millennials it just goes into the street
right so suddenly, millennials are surrounding these cuddly baby
movies, and they signs of it
baby on board minivans, with twelve different ways to buckle the precious kids into their seats, backbone, exit,
a smile. It is told kids to do this now is getting up
so all of this is so
This has changed, but this shit,
keeps generations like here's. The bank archaeologists know this. You can take a tree, you can cut the tree down and you can look at the rings on a tree and look at the width of the
anxiety and you can tell when that tree. Had you know a really lush spring and
Some are a lot of water. Little
the increasing that's when it went through the drought.
We are all like that. We are all like trees and very often, if you're a certain age
by the way any tree you cut down all as the same kind of rings. Right now has the same ring pattern cause they all went through the same thing. So it's the same thing. Generations are like trees,
in that respect, and we all internalize. We have a record inside ourselves of when you went through these different seasons. Yes, but the big challenges again, I want to come back to this cause, there's the challenge of that
crisis. You look around the world today by the way. This isn't just america why,
as the whole world. Moving away from sorted individualistic liberal.
Mark receiver, everyone's individual rights are protected. The whole world is moving towards populism. Moving towards guarantees for the group you tactile millennials, they wants it
purity they want community. They don't want that rugged individualism, though lot of exercise, you know, recall right, it's it's a shift in perspective.
And they re used there there's a great were called the calling of america that govern radically. Yet it also read by Jonathan janet
hey guys. If he's he goes through, shows that it started with baby
at that stage, not only being taught you gotta be safe. Every moment safety was
the question before
now you everything is about your safety in your security and on the milk cancer
Milk bottles that mostly-
similar Cyril every morning was a child that was missing. They started that during that time, and they never
told you the kids were found or that
stolen by the father, whose you know just got the divorce name. So all that was
is constant, fear, uncertainty and they
the constant peace, a magnify that when we get to the point of social media when around
nineteen or twenty ten. All of a sudden,
but he's got an iphone, and now there is a different world were constantly there being reinforced to be a certain way
My rates are radically in the culture, but but I want to plant a seed for the millennials right now, so you hear it
and when you learn experience, may warm
We oppose noakes crisis, just like the flapper as the ones we talk about great generation. I have great excitement for them when it was because they have a different
relationship the technology of networking and like to make sure
What about that? There are real
we're going to be an important part of the solution, but they also have a different relationship with each other through that's the point
and that's how they differ from actors. Millennials,
let's get it, they believe and doing everything as a community and they believe that people need a simple set of rules. Prescriptions. Let's just follow the same
rules that way we avoid any these problems listed
get everyone on the same page and by the way, if certain group of people refuses to be on the same page was gonna talk about this eventually conflict
Let's have it out because it has to happen. It's gonna happen because it really is immoral, a wrong. If you have a different point of view, there is something wrong with you: it's not. We have different points of view. My view
is the way europe one of you
wouldn't be where it shouldn't be free speech who, in their lifetime thought we'd, be hearing that from liberals, but we're all love repeat at this.
Is going on around the world. You might get you
J J, whether it everywhere around the you she didn't paying a china and IRAN
you're a modi and india. You go like a dog aberrations, owen sort of the transformation in japan, but you look. You look increasingly a europe. You know lappin unbelievably she's, probably one election away from winning in france, but my point is all of this is
these are becoming more populous around a kind of cultural, social centre of gravity in the nation
No one really cares so much about the marginalized groups anymore. Everyone is focusing on the majority marian centre. Let's get the rules right for them, so at least basic things work again, that's happening
round, and we sometimes think us just america that as this problem, it's not this is this. Just generational pattern greasing way involves.
Which the world- and they were the ones who are raised that way. The older millennials are now run forty years old, so they're, the ones
for the Washington post for the new york times are the ones that are on television doing that. So there
positions of power and influence in the ringing? The value systems that they ve learned, grown up with to the world?
spending there s the world to be that way and by the way, is to point out.
You saw the same thing happened during the night. It so you're right about the nineteen eighties
while exercise are enjoying. You know, grunge nirvana thrash.
Metal and just do it all that stuff. You knows it was totally transgresseth and the euro, the damaged fond advertisements that everything was so accelerate
millennials were watching? You know, party in his friend than europe
What is clear is if there were going to dinosaur it's huge renaissance of disney. You know movies, you know like lion, king and all that, so they were enjoying this. My very protected culture.
even while young adults we're all into their wildest use,
are the same thing happening under eighteen, twenty seven, thirty, nineteen twelve
is when the older generation young adults, rather than the weather flatterers in that year, they're doing
Barnstorming storming and rum running and all the things that the veterans came back from world war, one we're doing it out there.
the fears of hemingway land Fitzgerald. I mean there are kind of their wild crowd and they drank a lot
so they were a wild generation. They put the roar into the roaring twenties big. Meanwhile, the kids were being protected. The first boyscout girl scout campfire girls for age.
pubs, and by the time you are for twenty year olds, the first miss america as a nineteen. Twenty three we were building huge college stadiums for the younger generation right, so this would have been the equivalent of the millennials
and they were all becoming used to the spirit of optimism, cooperation, national unity. So, finally, when we have the great crash
a huge plurality of them voted for after they voted for the new deal, and so the new deal was incredibly favoured by younger people
just like a meteor, you all that you're seeing the pause, easy out. You know me,
The overall vote for the democratic party answers are now actually, arguably the most pro republican group out there and like the last generation, who is always lean more and more to the republican party. But what exercise need to do is just themselves to this new communitarianism, those because one way or another there are going to deliver that right. That's what the countries going and I have the guts. Could it be the interesting transformation, and so people who are in two personal transformation.
So, in fact I was gonna. Ask you today is actually one of my questions right see. I came with my hitlist to start with, the question has guess: you're a person who has spent your entire career really perfecting to on an equal level. In my opinion, personal,
transformation. Amid I used to, I wonder, but I'm sure you disagree, how can you take it any further than you have taken,
but I doubt- but I know you have things you still want to your right, but there is an end in a lot of your base, has always been exercised, rigorous and that's what they're into personal reservoir transformation, yeah yeah rumours, and what about your next stage on collective transformation? I think I think what we do about that,
we do with groups, because we create that collective value system. How many know what I'm talking about like at a date with destiny and like that so yeah millennials, find it very comfortable as far as that's concerned and everyone?
the global millennials roles of entering a stage is likely said: they're gonna buy houses. I remember seeing you
You really have to say that they look like
We're gonna buy, thousands are gonna, buy homes, but with the different about it
You said a bigger home, a different environment, but now there are entering that stage of life, forty years old, thirty five years old, where they start evaluating. In my experience, transformation in the twenties you think
As I said earlier, your invincible. When you get your
at thirties and you have relationships and then all sudden you have a family and then you have kids and then all of a sudden things look differently. So I'm seeing that group just as responsive as previous groups, but if they like doing a collect
Finally, what I like individualistic,
and if I may, I want to do in a certain way date
I don't know, I didn't want to be unsafe level problem in america, where public speech has become
so coarse or commodore wild right I mean I saw even
reaction to this recent school shooting in texas. Your congressmen are trading F bob's with each other on twitter congress,
I mean this blaming each other, while kids have to die right, but the point is the level of discourse has degraded to such a place. It reminds me, by the way of the of the of the eighteen fifties at had the same bank, where congressmen actually shooting and knifing each other. You know in the middle, and we know where that went. It went to war, but my point is:
Is that this level of incivility what happens after the crisis with a generation that actually has to fight it? They clean up everything languages. Imagine eyes, you look at language, political language of their people, after actually fighting world where two, particularly by then
nineteen fifties early nineties, sixties, it's all homogenized cleaned up. It's your wilder cronkite.
Good morning, america, everything was grey.
So this has a cycle to govern
or crisis, there's so much pain. People want something completely new. Yes, and this is why identity politics after the crisis is never an issue, because now
When cares about your own individual identity, anymore after
we all did take gather to get through this thing? Europe,
little identity, doesn't matter
by the way these are all the great melting pot periods of american history s I mean you went through worldwide to your, I no longer a hyphenated work.
You are no longer an italian american apology. We all those years,
june european attack hyphenated him. There were all just americans think about,
general preparation. That term has been created.
amounts getting nothing, but a melting block. Everything we do is come from somewhere else and we
honour that make it was a beautiful big. Now, it's part of the crisis creation is that sense of division, and if you like,
ray radio many view no ray and he's talking about
the changes in the world order, become or three principles that determine that one are you
spending more than your earning
earning more than you're spending right we're. Obviously, spending way more than were earning number two level of
internal conflict in the country
three arising power,
using our the art takes advantage because your economics are gone and you're completely divided. That's
Fortunately, where these countries, that doesn't mean has to stay there, but that's what this country is right now so tell
a little bit about, and when I could,
the crisis in a second. But I want you to us: if you would you? U use union archetypes
and you kind of a look at them a little bit here and what I found interesting
about that is, for example, you know boomers when I started out we're very permissive and then later in life they become they become very moralistic and very intense many people
start at one way and in up a different way. Can you explain?
as for our times and how you see them attached to these generations that were familiar weather
whole generations you've seen and how
start one. Why and why do they become sometimes almost the opposite? So yes, we attach to these four types of generation, archetype names, so for the for the generation that is born right after the crisis, we call them the prophet archetype and that would be France's boomers, but we bad many other examples. The original puritans were actually
example of a prophet archetype generation and one of the coins of a prophet so the life cycle. I think, you're familiar with I indulgently raised in a very secure era. They come of age during these times of spiritual awakening a lot of protest, a lot of social divisions and they break through they. Try to you know they. They want to individualize the country that
what a breath they want a free individuals from the sort of tyranny of the collective everyone's been enslaved with, and they don't understand why we had a collective had to have
through. The word understand that right and they didn't go through it. That's why they're different so they were
free everyone from that, and then they go through the the policies and which is a very period of individual. As this would have been like
the ladys the nineties the early hours when financial markets go crazy. Opportunity like that goes crazy of those times right and it's in its time, and in recently is true. When you go in any book store, you look at all the books in a book store and all the upbeat pause
the books are all about me myself and I you know all the great things I going to do with my all. The downbeat books now in bookstores and there's been this way for the last twenty five years are all about who we are collectively the decline of the family, the decline of the nation, the decline of us schools that decline. So so
But they become more moralistic during this past and why is that they go from birth, crazy, almost individuals, wickham an permissive to more or less.
in controlling, because they realize that those those idealistic principles aren't really being realized is that the moralism starts, and then they become the moralistic elders of the crisis, which we sometimes call the great champions and fdr was that lincoln was that right? Sam Adams was that and then the then, then the extra generation is the nomad archetype right, nomad alone, right, individual all of life is just kind of a one. On one encounter I find out
is to teach job history to judge and actors, and I found the only way to interest jet axes in history was to have them read biography. They all understood a life.
The individual that I can understand.
we about social trends and all that stuff. That makes no sense to me.
I don't have anything common will you tell me about an individual struggle. I get it right. So did the nomadic type,
We ve got about qualities. The qualities are in that their background under projected to sort of taking a life as an individual pragmatism
cynicism, I get things done, really well break things down to their simplest components. I think efficacy in sort of an ex
The commission is their strength at my though I renovation before often will create breakthroughs, but the people make those breakthroughs real. Is that you
my generation, they live and perfected and refine it may take microsoft
May you know it's build, but these guys come in and I take it to the next level: Google, whatever nomad idly generations
we're very likely to have no man by the way.
Nation really hinges on them because
They are the ones it midlife. During the crisis. They
determined whether we actually get through that have vague alive and while these old aquariums
You know sometimes one blow up world right, because their moralistic right, he has just killed, just kill, putin right
well, no matter what it means to the rest of the world where meetings with global war of the extra interracial like more pragmatic about it
and this generation is the one in real leadership position in crisis
the generals. They are the ones who actually their hands on leaders right and
where they were talking about them earlier there were that the yacht
Omar bradley, the general patton's, the Dwight Eisenhower's laconic, prose just everything to the point. Right
were very german, who never out a common,
any of his senses, just very simple utterances right so always to the pipe out right and- and then you have the next. The next one is the the hero generation.
And we know there. You know their strengths community. That's more mules achieves eddies,
and as the g I generation and it's the republican generation, they created the united states of america rice that that, via the american revolution, it created the constitution. Now they are wonderful because they create these long term institutions, their institution defenders. They they represent the community. They represent always optimism the triumph of technology, but technology
together, not like nomad technology is individual self out. Now that the J ai generation techniques
I do is always infrastructure that reformed our public spaces. We hardly have a concept of that anymore and probably during the crisis, will have to actually rebuild that infrastructure over it and then fight like the artist
type? These are the interpreters regeneration now, the end or or the yap with asylum? Generous,
his knowledge engine, which in other words these are the people that, during the war during the crisis, they're protected their job as just shut up and deal with it, cause you're being supported by the elders that are
during the war- and they develop very early on an ear for four sensitivity for fairness, so very often the generation that young develops and a talent for the things that older generations perceiving
and that's was fascinating to me, and you see that today, by the way, among those two group of kids, I called home landers generation, z,
you find that their very the very carrying the very much in a kindness,
in a world today which is all and to you, know, cancel culture and screaming everyone down, and the world is being divided into these black and white groups or hitched. It's a red and blues groups and a world
half of americans today believe a civil war is very likely. This wasn't even
the radar screen ten years ago, half of america saying that and and we see to that, the the possibilities of of global war now rising, so we're we're at this place. Now this younger generation senses that and that's why they're into nuance kindness seeing the kinds of distinctions which are lost an older generation. The silent generation is the same way by the way, so these
if the different, archetypes and and a couple of keep rotating and they they keep rotating and a couple of them are big. I mean you look at Joseph Campbell who he wrote about myth, and
look us with star wars, and we know that this is done on the job of campbell, but you see and in in myth every phase
life is occupied in the same orders or attacking about. Historically you always fight
that the young hero, like arthur, always has a much older wizard. You know like like merlin,
helps it right. So there's always the prophet archetype in old age, when the hero is coming of age right and then, when its reversed one is the other way
When you have an elder hero and a young profit, that's the story line of the founding of religions, right, that's more like orpheus or Jesus or boo,
yeah. Where are you right? It's like pontius pilot or hammurabi is sort of this. You know very secure, but.
spiritually soul that world.
And a young awaken or a young prophet challenging that speaking truth to power. Now, they're, both heroes been in almost opposite direction. One is reshaping the inner world, the others reshaping the outer world the hero, reshapes the outer world, the realm of kingdoms, the realm of society. You know making new collective infrastructure. The profit is reshaping the inner world of culture by the way in america
today, when we talk about politics, we always say postwar right. We say: oh yeah, that's the way, political institutions. When postwar we mean worldwide to we talk about culture. We talk about since the sixties threat
and that's how we period eyes things depending on wages
my inner world around our world
where do you see us now, two thousand eight, you see as the beginning of the winter, the crisis period it started with finance. We didn't really saw that we just put it more money. Now,
We're start dig around the end of that aspect. Use
we traditionally there is some form of war- is that is that a war with china? Is that a cyber war I mean no one knows for sure, obviously, but tell us what your point of view is aware. We are in the cycle and how long
winter. Alas, this is another seven or eight years baseline history. I think that they add phases of life are actually getting broader. Recently, we actually see a violation.
phases of life, kids are taking longer to become adults. I mean you hollow that fact.
Or do you probably still living where they right anyway,
and then you see, people are big political,
leaders at older and older ages, I mean look at
those who look at bide we'd, never seen people at that age. It is so in other words phases.
if life for dilating and remember it's the length of a phase of life that determines the generation I like so, and it also determines turning like. So we think that after actually compressing for the last century, an app they're actually beginning to die
right now we're earlier history, things might have been a twenty five year season, they've gone back to kind of a twenty and see it starting to change that. So we think this next step this. Fourth, turning we're currently in studying in two thousand and eight will probably last till around early twenty third,
please wow, and, and so we have a ways to go, I think almost certainly we could have more. All of these periods are are characterized by an enormous degree of financial and economic instability, not just the the opening crash, like the crash of twenty nine. The crash of you know two thousand and eight, but also during the period. I talked about the seventies eighties. Before what about the? What about the recession of nineteen? Thirty six, the stock market went down.
in nineteen thirty six by fifty five percent, I mean you want and by the way inflation of you were talking about inflation during fourth turnings. We haven't seen anything yet you know, and I'm convinced that Jerome Powell is not going to stop and think is going to go all the way. So it's kind of
interesting game there you end up with a recession. Well, the only way he's going to be able to surprise demand is by creating a recession. I don't think there's any question about that, and so that will bring. You know, interest rates down that will bring it. But then, then you have a problem where congress isn't going to be able to do anything either. This is going to be like volker,
without the nerve again right and congress will not be able to help right. Congress will not be able to create those huge deficits while fed monetary policy, as is increasing inflation. The system
By the way we now have a very small generation coming into the workplace. Very
large generation, leaving so over the twenty twenty.
There is zero net growth in working age population on romania, zero that group
during that eighteen eighties, when Reagan was there and vulgar is doing is thing we had one and a half percent per year. I've just increase working age, people
so we have a demographic situation, a monetary policy situation and an inability.
If congress to I'll tell you why congress can act, why congress cannot do anything stimulus which you think that word right. The reason
is, is because debt is so high. I debt is now about up to about two hundred and four entered five percent of gdp right
where we were at the end of world war. Two that's where we done just since two thousand and eight we went from thirty five percent to over under presented gdp. It deficit
but we we didn't fighter total war. God knows what we did but we're there. The future deficit projections at CB
it does rather way. I review this to all my clients. I do this once a year, so I go over them all. Thirty or cbf projections they're hugely dependent now on interest rate assumptions. As those real interest rate assumptions go up and inflation expectations goes up. Those things balloon to infinity, so guess what, at the same time, while Jerome Powell is increasing those interest rates, increasing you know and, and everyone suddenly knowledge in those inflation expectations that are going into effect. That will completely spike any hope that congress has it running any deficit because we're dependent on foreign investors who keep buying our bonds. You know
but forty percent of u treasury treasuries, are owned by foreigners today for a period of inflation in consumer products and probably d.
Patient of assets, so that painters does, is re bounded in bed. You know you have to be very careful, and I I don't know if someone's gonna talk about this later about where do invest in a form of earning by work. Those your perspective will, first of all get out of nominally denominated are fixed income ass. It says the first concerns a ruined by inflation, bonds ads you at a done better if you had gotten out of them who has six months ago, but they still don't look good, see, got out of those and the whole business above about you know, sort of that
parity arrangement wait, you don't you do the stocks and binds together because you're when one rises, the other goes down. That's completely collapsing on says no longer term. So so, basically you get out of that, and then you get
out of all the high risk stuff you get it,
you get out of high beta high leverage. You know
So you kind of go down the list of everything that sort of of bad. For you and then you and then you- you also get out of stuff that probably isn't going to do well in the future, like the communication sector and stuff, which is just tremendously overvalued, basically high multiples, as the other thing to look for. So you get out of that, and what do you get into you get into things if you get into
it is you get into real estate and you get into sectors are probably undervalued and a fourth turning manufacturing materials and possibly energy. I think energy is actually looking good now, particularly because everyone is being forced to get out of it makes it kind of a buy. We obviously have a problem. God knows what's going to happen to food prices, but if you're in materials that means producing ammonia, you know what ammonia is used for. Inner energy is needed for agriculture. So if you want to talk about energy to keep us warm and food to keep us fed, I mean you're talking about those sectors, you already sell the other things apply, diversify yourself everywhere and the most important thing, though a fourth turning is to
Know where your investments are be very wary of stuff, where you don't know what the hell it is. You know what I'm talking about. If you understand you know web three or an f t's or if you really want to spend, and if you really think you understand, you know, board apes yacht club go ahead,
but see what what the overall price of it mts has come to yeah now ninety percent right now yeah, so so anyway. So I I've never recommended that. But my plan is get out of that stuff.
Because you know nor your money as by the way, though, whole evaluation of that was generated,
negative real interest rates were likely to see that again right, one.
The most important things we can do to prepare and anticipate personally other than the financial side, your family s number one just know we, your family is get back
good relations with people that you may have you know not have family as well right. Exactly your chosen family. Everything about you know: you're you're, you're, you're, sort of elective community. I mean whoever you're living with, because that will become very important or network would be everything the real network, not a fake network, not a facebook network, but the network of people that you can count on real knew exactly and if you don't have one find one generate, what reputation matters and a fourth. Turning and by the way conventional values come back and forth. Turning lincoln ne four thirty- and you know the
songs have become popular, the movies, their corny, their schmaltz, their reaffirming no one's transgressing any more for turning. There's no benefit in that knowing gives
damn about all that stuff anymore right, and so, if you look at the kinds of movies that were big in the late thirties, or certainly during world war, two and art itself, culture transforms into propaganda. Hollywood moved to washington during the arab world war. Two. I mean everyone needed to make something that was for the cause. We all became used to that
so this is something millennials by the way, a well primed, for that say, all understand out for the cars. So this this is also important, and I think,
I think also one other thing, as it is very important for all the actors out there. You need to get back in touch with the official community authorities in your area who the politics
these are, who actually is on the committees that actually create that the regulations that affect your industry, one thing that is very important in every for turning is being able to influence and talk to the p,
well that our redrafting and re legislating all of the laws and regulations going to reshape your written down in school boards. Yeah right, yeah! Well, we've seen that recently right, but you need to know because politics can reshape your world over a nightmare
turning. You need to be connected. I know a lot of excess. I hate politics. I hit all those guys
eyes. Even everything they do is just did a ruined everything, certainly in my life, but this is survival. Think of
I it that way, since just think of it, as that extra survival code, who you know is pretty critical, who you have relationship is critical exactly so. These are I dunno. These are the things that
are they? How do we know we're coming out of a fourth threatened by the wave of another? We ve uplifted you all with your future compelling future, but by
isn't it better to know one anticipate than to get struck and react yes,
So the question is what follows
for turning is a new awaken. Excuse me,
You are new time, a new springtime.
New high new optimism. How do we know- and we turned the corner out of this? Fourth, turning that ran right now. That will be like
flat. You will do you know why? Because every for turning its final climax is absolutely history. Changing so toward the end of the votes, for thirteen can sometimes build like the thirties did like this. One is its building right. Is this crate shadow of interest and by
way every election today as a national action. Zizz like the ninety nineties, when you could this be a kind of a flaky third third party can
a date or so any gesture that no everything now is
we're either red zone are blues zone. I me running for die, catcher you're running, for you know,
on the school board, it's all.
pearl arise, because the only thing that matters now by the way is not like the ninety. Nine is a lot of arguments, people trying to persuade other people that change your mind, I'm in Washington dc amid the ram politics, no one it
I see as any more arguing with each other why they already made up their minds. They've made up their minds. There is no, and it's amazing: do you think that so
tip. Neil administers the fight like congress and a beer together it now. They don't speak to the other side, big there,
So you realise that they have nothing to talk about the ebner and you're gonna say they have neither about their in completely different world views and their visions of america's future are mutually exclusive right and by the way, this is the danger point for civil war. You talk to Barbara walter's, the biggest,
she just wrote a book on it, she's the biggest scholar of civil wars, and she goes around the world m e cheese. She went to rwanda, she went she went to you know Cambodia she's been to certainly I I eat all around all the stands and that down in africa and sorry she says
no one ever sees it coming. She's interviewed, I don't know how many people she said. They never think it's going to happen in their country right
this zone between those countries become more regional people. Moving en masse to wear
if more aligned with other people, whether it be blue states aurettes, if you, if you pull people today, you will find that of all the p
All they don't want to live with right. This is,
more than living with next to someone of another religion. Another raise another, it doesn't matter what about, but I don't want to live with a person politically, the opposite of I'm, because I just
not be able to get along without persons. So this is the level of miller. And again, if you don't know history, you don't know where we bid go back and read about the about the eighteen fifty's
how all of amerika became separated the churches in america set
created in the late eighteen forties and then
Suddenly, the to the national political parties died and mean first, it was. The whig party
that went out and then in the early eighteen fifties in eighteen. Fifty eight of the Democrats,
a party that basically disintegrated so by
eighteen sixty you just simply a purely regional parties, and that was
before the civil war started, so think about it. This is happening. We see this happening this possibility. Now the other possibility is external conflict. We see that rising as well, given all these new popular
nations around the world and, in the other, all feel there all by the way, run with post crisis.
Leaders like c jinping and narendra modi were all born after these great champions. Right, so do the possibility of of of global conflict is also rising now, which will it be? It could be totally one totally the other or sometimes a little of both american revolution is a little a bulk. We were fighting americans against britain, but it was also americans against americans at the same wireless versus the revolutionaries, the nineteen thirties. We had a strong, almost civil war component, I mean, and eighteen there is a terrible. I mean cities were full of violence, Pinkerton's against against communists and socialists, you know, or the unions. Particular
when you yeah the the sit down strikes in the late fifties. By the way back, then republicans could truthfully claim that young adults were card carrying comments and socialist. They really were. They were joining the communist socialist party during the great depression and they could truthfully. You know
that the other side, once it captured government, which try to reshape the country which it did with us with the new deal
so any you complain about millennials. It could have been worse
if you go to bed young ji eyes, you know, and they did a lot of the lot of the joint. You know strong lesson
after a crisis. There is usually figure in this.
More time the awakening there,
the cultural change after a cry,
if there is a change worldwide. The structure, how whirl relates to each other,
What do you see? What what is your view of where we are and where we are heading towards the timeline? Were these you're saying and what makes you
domestic, on the other side of this, because it might be helpful. People know that
workers river, even though may sound forever no pandemic, as we said, goes on forever, no nine,
is river, there's always the daytime ripe and it always follows the thank god. So tell us a little bit about what
I see happening and what's the other side look like I, you cannot know in advance a case such as the chaotic nature. There are certain patterns you can tell. You can tell the timing of this whole thing when it will get worse. Why not resolve it, but internal vs external, you don't know you can't predict because it could flip one way or the other. Interestingly, as as we saw in the thirties to the forties, I mean you would
predicted that would have predicted that, after the second new deal and after sdr, we go madison square garden jammed with ten thousand
daddy says: I know that the capitalism, the robber barons they hate me and all these are republicans hate me. It is that I,
gloria, their hatred it out that ten thousand people screaming tat was the partisanship in eighteen, thirty, in eighteen, thirty, six and by the way when it was about one republicans, were almost completely wiped out congress. I mean, though there were only fourteen republican senators left in the senate. I mean it so, in other words, we're talking about
happened back that, yes, we could be seeing that again, and would you have predicted that, at the end of that we wouldn't be a civil war but we'd end up
slightly unified, and that's how fast collective identities can change as you get toward the end of a fourth turn, it so very dynamic period right, so
timing. We are right now, look both both political parties are leaderless right and we've got a republican party that doesn't know where the hell. It is right now and you know we got trump- is why it's out there and we've got the scientists. We've got cotton that we've got all these people that we don't know is the democratic party leaderless. I think it's fairly certain now from everyone I talked to in washington, d c Biden is not going to run for a second term and and you've got
No one is the even thinking about the vice president. So essentially you ever democratic party, this leaderless at republican party, this
I was actually leaderless, it's open and what question you asked me actually before before we went on,
the identity of a leader, the agreement where the leaders come from there s one thing: I ve learned from four turnings to answer that ancient question
I leaders born, or they made wedding about poor thirties as they are made.
They are made, leaders are not borne. The ten ives teddy Roosevelt, who was franklin results in our fifth fifth cousin uncle kind of like he was a man of
vastly more capacity intelligence, energy than franklin, roosevelt Armenia was at dynamo. Everyone thought the Theodore Roosevelt was like
but nothing but a god on earth. The guy would read two books a day. He would be out you're chasing
and ostracism is gone, I mean he was.
An amazing phenomena. He did galvanise the country, but he was unable to put through any kind of major changes. It wasn't the right sees it rang. Franklin, Roosevelt! No, want that
Him I mean he was. He was not a great intellect. Actually he did have an amazing capacity to make friends and empathize, but I think polio was part of that, and that was a personal crisis which really transformed him in a very beneficial way. He was
made Abraham lincoln. I mean I nobody. I wonder congressmen
Just suddenly was the right man at the right time. Same thing you could say about you know George Washington, it away, but that's my point
is it- is it during the crisis is the great profit,
The leader or its remit,
I think you did by the extra their nomad, so you get my or make them do the fighting sunday. The great champion is the sort of the elder
It is now whether that great champion is also the supreme national later that can vary. It was true with with franklin roosevelt. He was a proper archetype. He was the elder leader at the g, I generation absolutely worshiped, franklin, roosevelt and the same.
this was true. They ran like add. When franklin roswell died, the nation more dram, exactly as they met a more for Abraham lincoln when he died, I mean that that was the generation of all young people, follow
It's really all the union, followers all the republicans in north. You know what would follow lincoln anywhere, so great leaders made not born that took us through this harrowing period. I now they were going to champions. They were both profit archetypes in
the american revolution. We did our profit archetypes. People like sam attitudes, are benjamin franklin, but the one that everyone worship was George Washington's aluminum nomad exactly another one would be queen Elizabeth in oh, and actually we write about all these crises going back when another wonders was queen Elizabeth, who is
no. I mean queen Elizabeth, a little copy of you know: Machiavelli's the prince
she was always really like how to stab in the back where they were
like egg and staff, and an issue is a total pragmatists when it came to religion right. She just wanted a practical way to get rid of this issue, so she- but she was- she- was a nomad written, so
Typically, at someone who say an early boy, no matter where, if there were a profit, there are late more profit somewhere.
the cost will do. I want to finish with a compelling future of the spring dying, because it's not a year or two once we may
get through this really
twenty or more years, usually of a more optimistic time describe
You know what the spring time is to come. This rig time, like everyone, has got the springtime as a wonderful time. Given what came before an end, there would be no doubt about when it starts, has suddenly the greater
it will be over when all the the treaties are signed. All the resolutions are made and suddenly it's a time when after history becomes moves very fast, it suddenly really be a slowdown and when suddenly institutions can be made very quickly, remade very quickly in new laws and so on. All this great stuff put into place. Suddenly things become harder to change and now socially it's what.
Millennials have been dreaming about sweat g eyes were dreaming about it's what the republican it's where we will have com.
be able to provide a lever place ever
a unified and we will all feel great about accents.
sounds impossible right now. Doesn't it, but that's what
This does because people get exhausted with the amount
These seasons, think of it as emotional seasons,
optimism season, you go go go, but if you smile all the time your face hurts eventually right after twenty years, and so people go.
that summer time of that internal fight and looking for the individualism, I don't want to be part of the group and then
over suddenly unravelling happens in everybody's supposedly has the rewards, Elise financial rewards and then, after that,
big fall of rewards. What are the next winter time again and our people?
come together to fight the crisis, and so this is the cycle of humanity is not
yours like or my cycle. This is the cycle of human history and we
or to see that that can be compelling when you are
I will give my my own daughter, for example, I think, by the way, what world, what will
the next generation, one window, the winds, the cut off disease. We don't know young, as we know we don't know. We don't even know when they started to go. You have you have to wait until the crisis as ever. Take a good example. Nineteen, twenty five as were silent generation, starts nineteen. Twenty four is: whether generation stops. You would not have known that in its house. Eighteen, forty six when worldwide to end it. So we have to wait until that final, but right now we we think that the last year, a millennium
as two thousand and four post birth, the europe of our homeland generations, two thousand and five to homeland ladders. Interesting and the reason why they're named at home landers first of all, because back then I think we did this poland, two thousand. I can't remember two thousand tat or something like that by tat.
First of all, member, after nine eleven, the department of homeland security, everyone is under homeland, right and and
so this fact that everyone is suddenly into sort of protecting the home protecting their community and then
that literally given these readily compulsively protective jenny,
sir parents, who swear that they never get to allow their own kid to be
they were left aloud right again this this pattern of over compensation, these kids,
always at all heavy they they always have someone at them and they never go anywhere is amazing. This generation is dead,
We have to go anywhere. You know for movies, for entertainment, for food to try each other for food for whatever, so they are literally the most homebound generation and and during the pandemic, who is off the charts or as we call them, the quarantines read anyway for a reason. So your question was so that's. What do you think they're going to be that and and and when they with their last their last cohort, obviously is going to be determined a little bit by when we determined the prophet the beginning of the next prophet generation, but it's probably going to extend from from two thousand and five to two something
in the late two thousand and twenties so, and we've talked a little bit about their attributes. Are there going to be very well behaved rather way a young young artist archetypes
he's very well behaved a very well socialized, and this is the amazing thing, and I I maybe this is one point that should come back to because I think people find it so counter intuitive that they don't believe it. But if you go back through all of history, going back to the I dunno, the the fifteen hundreds to like the generation of erasmus, you think about it very well, socialized, very well educated generation, but these generations of extremely consensus minded socialized
kid are united in our young people, who you later on, we deepen that regulations. They go go older. They always were raised by very closed tight fisted,
pragmatic parents at a time of crisis right and similar, lay the mouse tat. The most pragmatic, survivalist generations were always raised at a time of openness and chaos knew their childhood right, and I think that's what's interesting about that, as you can see that there were raised in in you see that you
he had thing that idea that who you are is almost the opposite of how you are raised. I think so many actors today there's civil protective, so hands on with their parents in itself
obviously different by the way when I talk to exercise that right. I've done this. A lot had I've surveyed them and I've talked to the it's not even unconscious its courage. Is they?
no they're doing it. For that reason, yes, dear.
never going to have my kid with away. I remember you know when I was home alone and stuff, so it's very deliberate, very conscious and
Similarly, the silent generation. Why did they re
exercise. That way is because of that
the clear were raised in a closet right.
Back in the late nineteen thirties? Nineteen forties,
so why oftentimes people relate more to their grandparents than their parents yeah exactly
Their relating to the similar archetype across the cycle, and that's it makes
This is why so many millennials admire their g g? I generation parents were great grandparents because wow. I recognise something.
that you know granddad grandma wherever right, so that that sets
figures think it was igor. You said that you know we
every generation declares war on its parents and makes friends with the spread of that that the GAD that's looking across the cycle at your archetypal symbol.
I already verses your opposite. So the question is
Were you in the seasons of history? When did you come of age at twenty one to forty one ranch? I came
I was born in nineteen sixty right on the cusp, so I can remember
somewhere my psyche that optimism for those first, three years before Kennedy died, I can remember saying kennedy and king and all the
absolute unravelling that occurred there Robert Kennedy dying is part of my youth.
And then I came of age, my twenty one and forty wondering unravelling during the far right. So in play:
she exploded and all of a sudden changes that happened in the eightys and ninetys, and so on
I'm running next stage of my life in the love halfway through the winter
how do you know the next section of it all get to see the hopefully have? Only recently I get to see the next spring, damn good portion of it
where are you in your location, history
And how are you gonna get it and if you only
today, you're gonna
the wrong view? When I say the wrong, you have been an accurate view of life.
And also you know, many people wanted to be easier, but not.
That's ever come easy has been valued very much in our lives. Your parents tell you about you, never listened to them. Would you get?
older. You know it.
these years, it'll be challenging over the next seven, eight nine ten years. Whenever it really is challenging,
actually challenging in terms of uncertainty.
We are also going to make us out to be more nimble makers, grown ways you wouldn't have to grow without it.
And, on the other side that you have ten or twelve
for thirty years, whatever it'll be for you of greater
without them as a minimal know, what'll happen is they'll, be another summer. They'll be another weakening internal battle.
I don't know how long you're going to live, but it'll be interesting. I think about my daughter and think about what she'll go into she's. Going to you know, be a child.
during the crisis,
leads to half of it. So common,
adrian this beautiful springtime so participate.
probably in the next summer, if she's, like easel megan
for maybe just a long life. Maybe I should make it to the next winter and take what you learn from that
if there's a beauty in understanding life from a different perspective than just how you're looking at it right now and that beauty brought to all of us to to. Let me just maybe a couple of closing that cleans important and people off and they listen to me in the end. They will.
Say you know now is just sounds so terrible. You know,
telling us about all these things happen.
The turnings usually end where they usually go. I mean we're talking about war. After all, we're talking about conflict, we're talking about additional, you know economic times of economic, financial duress, and it seems so bleak, and then I my answer is what what's the good news? What's? What's the upside of upward turn it and I say the upside of a fourth turning is that we actually at the end of it, we actually solve
All the problems that we now have in a way that today absolutely no one thinks will ever solve, and I said in
be one way of saying this is what is the worst future? You can imagine, and I think you have to say. Maybe the worst feature is take olive. Today's trance everything you seek.
for the last ten years right that you see whatever you're looking at an indefinite future of that.
That's a world without a fourth turning? That's it
world in which winter does not happen. You want that. No, I dont think any
but so little actually we understand it and this
actually up a fascinating us speech. It is actually very famous many of you probably heard about it, William James. It was a great got, a pragmatist american floss, very you. He gave a speech in them. Nineteen o six stanford university and it was called
the moral equivalent of war, I'm sure even the more electorate could we ever arrange sort of kind of a a practice run. Where are we going to have all the
the socially ennobling things about a war without actually not fighting one.
And as friends say, and he goes back and he he he finally admits, even though he hopes we got out up when he was a pacifist, but he says it, it probably isn't. He said everything we need to remain together as a nation, all the social habits are forged in war. If we're honest with ourselves, or at least in in conflict of some sort, I mean he was trying to be as broad about it as possible. That's where we learned that the value of sacrificing for the sake of others, but then he had this fascinating hypothetical question. I think
It's really great for what you do and in this audience he said he said, there's any paradoxical at how we look at this. He said if you asked americans right now, would you have preferred that we had never thought the civil war? Remember he sang this night,
it s neck, so that sort of like it or not that long ago,
It says about most americans would say: no, no, I don't prefer the way,
because we could not have imagined they can a dynamic national and
Just real affluent america that we were by two thousand nineteen o six without the civil war we
to fight that were to be who we were today and he said
I see things almost everyone said no, it was actually better. We fought that war. After all, we we did do the thirteenth, fourteenth fifteenth amendments, and you know so, although that was was good, but then he said, but then he says a paradox.
If you pulled most americans today, would you like
another one in your new future. Almost all americans say no,
We gotta leave that there is a paradox, but I don't think it's paradoxical at all. It's just like ourselves as individuals
we look back at our life and we think you know that
horrible experience. I add I was
willy de depths. I didn't know how it was going to go onto the next day. I didn't know I was going to survive. I didn't know. I really learned so much from that. I'm a new person after that I forced myself to change
No, I do not wish that. I never had that experience, but then you ass, most people
Well, one another's express like that next week at those people will say now,
no I'd, rather than those most brings times less along, do right, but twenty years after that would be, I don't want to go through that crap so that that's kennedy,
but the analogy- and I think we have to think of ourselves like that and that it's not that we want to be in a fourth turning it's it's simply it's necessary. I forests, neat fires, rivers need floods,
The citizens need a winter. We have to kill everything above ground so that things below ground can germinate and they will have space. And that's another thing. We look at America today. We see
the inequality. Inequality by the way always grows during peacetime. At this, is u you back to the end of the neolithic revolution. We
we all. This is always happened in times of peace and prosperity. Inequality over gets always gets worse. Why, as families there was blood protect their offspring, their sinecure,
they all a rigged the laws and everything to help those who have it always gets worse. What equalising come all the wearable things? We would all like to talk about europe
It's the plagues, the famines, the total revolutions, a total wars. That's the same thing happened in his train century. That's when equality got much better than eighteen, thirties, world war, two and then the high that followed, in other words, the the authors of equality after
work. This is the only times when our society becomes back to normal again and then we can get up again
yeah over debt creation and destruction, and creation creation and destruction and creation. But I that that that's kind of what happens, that's kind of what has to happen
you're special gift was all you really delivered forth as you have decades, for so many let's have it.
Transcript generated on 2022-08-11.